Chip Chirimbes
Steelers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8
With the knowledge that Ben Roethlisberger is 20-2 lifetime against the Browns I side myself with a winless team in week 11. Cleveland has had oh I lost count how many quarterbacks playing this season maybe six. Okay no matter because this week R.G.III has made an appearance and everybody's spirits have been lifted in the Roc'-n-Roller capitol. Pittsburgh has now lost four in-a-row both straight-up and against the points and they are full aware that their playoff window is closing for the winter. The Browns are 0-10, 2-8 ATS and have dropped their last four to the number, sounds like a 'perfect' side to me.
Jimmy Boyd
Dolphins -1
The big news going into this game is the Rams will be debuting rookie Jared Goff. This might not seem like a big deal, given how much the offense was struggling under quarterback Case Keenum. I'm sure even some people might view it as an upgrade. I'm not one of them. After watching Goff struggle the way he did on Hard Knocks, I wasn't surprised at all that LA waited this long to make the switch.
I know Fisher has said that he's not going to rush a rookie into action, but you don't trade up for the No. 1 pick and not expect to play him right away. Not in today's NFL. I personally think the Rams realized they made a mistake with Goff and were simply trying to save face by pushing back his debut.
I also think there's something to say about how Keenum reacted to losing his job. Given how poorly he has played, you wouldn't expect him to be so upset about losing the job, unless he feels that he gives the team the better chance to win. I get the feeling the Rams players don't think Goff has what it takes and if they aren't behind this move, things are going to go south in a hurry.
All of this and I haven't even mentioned that the Dolphins are arguably the better team here and come into this game on a roll, having won 4 straight. While Jay Ajayi and the running game is getting all the praise right now, I've really been impressed with the play of Ryan Tannehill, who I think is now on the same page with head coach and quarterback guru Adam Gase. The perception here is that this isn't a great matchup for Miami, because the Rams have such a talented defensive line. While it's definitely talented, it's much better at getting after the quarterback than stopping the run. LA is only 17th in the league against the run, giving up 103.1 ypg. On top of that, they could be missing two key pieces up front, as Quinn and Brockers are both questionable.
I just think there's too much value here with Miami not to take a shot on the Dolphins in this spot, as I just feel there's a much greater chance that Goff fails in his debut than comes out and lights the world on fire.
Bill Biles
Eagles vs. Seahawks
Play: Seahawks -6.5
This will be a tough task for the Eagles rookie QB to go on the road in the loudest stadium and win. The Seahawks are playing well and their Defense at home will shut down the Eagles and Russell Wilson and company will score some points.
Marc Lawrence
Bears vs. Giants
Play: Bears +7½
Edges - Bears: 5-1 ATS away off an away game; and 3-1 ATS last four games here in this series. Giants: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS home regular season off BB home games; and 1-3 SUATS last four games versus NFC North foes. With Bears head coach John Fox 10-3 SU and 11-13 ATS away off an away, look for the Giants to fall to 17–24 SU in 2nd half of the season games today. We recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Sean Murphy
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Play: Indianapolis -2½
It seems as though a lot of folks are starting to buy into the Titans as a legitimate contender for the AFC South title. I'm not so easily convinced, however.
Keep in mind, just two games back the Titans were unable to keep pace with the Chargers in San Diego. Yes, they bounced back nicely with a blowout home win over the Packers last Sunday, but I believe they'll be in tough to repeat that effort here.
The Colts have simply owned the Titans over the years. Indianapolis comes into this one off its bye week, which came on the heels of a big road win over the aforementioned Packers. Indy has yet to deliver back-to-back wins this season, but I see this as an ideal spot for it to accomplish that.
The Titans simply haven't had any answers for the Colts offense in recent meetings, allowing at least 30 points in each of the last three matchups. With the Colts offense remaining intact, and coming off the bye week as I mentioned, I like Indy to prevail.
Mike Lundin
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Play: Indianapolis -2½
The 4-5 Indianapolis Colts will host AFC South rivals Tennessee Titans (5-5) Sunday afternoon. Tennessee is coming off a 47-25 win against Green Bay, but I'm not convinced the Titans can come up with another monster performance like that. They'll face a Colts team coming off its bye week, and we can note that the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. Indy won 34-26 as a 4-point underdog at Tennessee on Oct. 23, and the Colts have now won 10 straight regular-season meetings with the Titans while going 9-1 ATS.
The Titans have struggled against division opponents in recent seasons while the Colts are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 vs. AFC South.
Michael Alexander
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -7
The Cowboys just keep winning, even in such a place as a visitor vs the Steelers. Eight straight wins for Dallas, with rookie duo of Prescott and Elliott more impressive by the week. Ezekiel now over 1,000 rushing yards (first Cowboy since Tony Dorsett), and in off 3-TD effort, one on an 83-yard pass/run play. Dak comes in with 14 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. The Cowboys have a 212-127 point edge in their last 7 games (+80 points ATS). The Ravens come in off a 2-game run, off 4-game slide, and in off easy win over hapless Cleveland (29-11 first downs and 396-144 yard edges), but Baltimore is 0-9 ATS vs opponents who are off more than 2 SU/ATS wins.
Mike Anthony
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Tennessee Titans +2.5
When the Titans pull off this victory, they will show why the Colts are considered a team that needs some serious rebuilding. Tennessee have not always shown it, but since their 8 pt loss to the Colts several weeks ago - they have more than proven their offensive abilities. Their WRs have been fantastic finding their way off physical coverages - and Marcus Mariota has hit them in stride all over the field. This season, Indianapolis has given up even more than usual to opponents in their passing attacks. They seem to be actually going backwards, at times, by giving up 334 and 289 - this is not the direction you want to go in, obviously. And Indy has defended the running game holding teams to under 100 only 2 times this year - the Titans running game will be too much again. Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win Tennessee has been playing very good ball lately and I'll back them here as the small dog on Sunday as your comp.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -7 over Baltimore
The Ravens crushed the Browns 28-7 on Thursday Night Football after Cleveland took a lead into halftime. After two straight division wins, Baltimore now finds itself atop the AFC North but it’s all smoke and mirrors. The Ravens other victory during this modest two game win streak was against the Steelers with a half crippled Ben Roethlisberger playing. The Ravens are not good and their body of work this season supports that. Their other wins have come over Buffalo, Jacksonville and Cleveland again. They've lost every game they've played against anyone half decent including the Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Jets and we don’t consider the Jets or Giants decent.
Tony Romo said it best on Sunday when he was caught on camera saying “it's his time” into his headset. Romo knows what Jerry Jones refuses to admit; this is Dak Prescott's team. For all the deserved praise the rookie signal caller has gotten, we would be remiss if we didn't use this space to talk about how great the Cowboys' offensive line is. They give Dak time to throw and the holes they create for rookie runner Eziekel Elliot have made him a fantasy football legend in just half a season. The Cowboys are on a different level right now and their win over the Steelers on Sunday was one of those season defining games. They went on the road into a very hostile environment, overcame an early turnover that led to Steeler points and they closed the game out with a touchdown drive in the final seconds to win it.
Analytics are big in baseball and hockey but advance stats aren't yet the rage in the NFL. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. It's basically a more accurate representation of where a team is at beyond the surface stats. The Ravens offense ranks dead last when it's weighted against the other teams in the league. Their opponents this week in Dallas are 2nd. After playing the eighth ranked Steelers, the Cowboys are taking a big step down in competition when they host Baltimore on Sunday. When the oddsmakers put a “hook” on a key number like seven, we always have to take a closer look. That half point can be enough to sway bettors to the dog and we think the books have done just that. Furthermore, this is a classic sandwich game for Dallas, as they have the Redskins on deck for their annual Thanksgiving Day game on Thursday. The propensity after that big win over Pittsburgh would be a letdown but we’re not anticipating that here. Dallas has huge momentum and have not let up yet so we see no reason for a step back here. There is a colossal difference in class between these two teams and when it’s all said and done, the colossal difference in class will likely be reflected on the scoreboard.
Chicago +7½ over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants don't win them by much but for four weeks now they have won by a touchdown or less. They currently have the fourth best record in the NFC which is impressed by any team over .500 this year. These next two games - the Bears and Browns – figure to be wins before the schedule gets very tough for the final five games. The Giants certainly have not played in a way that suggests that they are one of the top teams in the conference but welcome to 2016. The G-men had to rally against the pitiful Bengals on Monday night. They struggled to a 17-10 win over the Rams. They lost to both Minnesota and Green Bay while scoring 10 and 16 points respectively. They overcame the Saints earlier in the year and scored just 16 in a three-point victory. The list for the Giants goes on and on of low scoring games that get decided in the final few minutes. After a big Monday night win and with Cleveland on deck, this looks like one of those troubling spots that result in an upset.
The Giants are perhaps the most overvalued team in the NFL so let’s recap. Their best defensive player blew up his hand and is playing with a lobster claw. The Giants coach is offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, master of the tight end fade route. You younger Giant fans who missed out on the Ray Handley era are experiencing that treat now. Then there’s Eli Manning. Has there ever been a more accomplished yet less respected athlete in history? No one fears Eli. Even his own fans clown him. This man has won two Super Bowls, has thrown for a bazillion yards and has been the most durable quarterback since Brett Favre. Somewhere under that dopey exterior is the black heart of a bloodthirsty competitor… a man driven by perceived disrespect and sibling non-rivalry. Only we don’t see that man. All we see is the dumbest kid at your seven-year-old’s birthday party. The Giants offensive line is still god awful, forcing Little Eli to scramble around in desperate search of either an open wideout or his mawmaw’s warm embrace. Combine that line with McAdoo’s offense, along with a running game destined to average 0.0003 yards per carry, and Manning is gonna get his throat ripped open at some point. We honestly have no idea how the Giants win football games and we’re sure as hell not going to miss taking back 7½-points against them here.
There are sources that say that the Bears are already tanking it this year and that they don't want to play with Jay Cutler. The defense has been very good when at home and not good at all when they leave. The offense struggled all year to post points and judging by last week's 26 point loss in Tampa Bay, that is a trend that is not going to go away. The Bears lose Alshon Jeffery for four weeks due to a suspension for performance enhancing drugs, which his fantasy owners can readily attest were not working anyway. Jay Cutler was accused of not preparing to play the Buccaneers and his stand-offish ways would result in the Bears switching quarterbacks if they had anyone decent to use. The point of all this is that the Bears are a total mess but the media blows everything out of proportion, especially when it comes to tearing down an individual. The Chicago media, like most, are relentless and cruel when someone or a group is at their worst. More often than not, however, that group will respond with a solid effort. Nobody, not even the media really know what the dynamics are in the locker room when it is closed. We have seen Cutler rise to the occasion before and it would surprise us not if he rose to the occasion here. This wager, however, is still more about fading a team that has trouble scoring seven points and that remains grossly overvalued.
Philadelphia +6½ over SEATTLE
Over and under-reactions are a big part of our handicapping theories and it really doesn’t get any better than this. Seattle was given little chance of going into Foxborough last week and defeating the Patriots as a 7½-point pooch. Then something strange happened. The Seahawks looked flawless while the Patriots looked heavily flawed and the result was an outright victory for the visitor. Going into Week 10, Seattle had not played a single quarter, half or game that resembled anything we saw from them last week. Yes indeed, Russell Wilson looked like his old self. Yes indeed, the Seahawks defense stepped up when it mattered most just like they did in their hey-day. We are now going to attempt to take advantage of the market overreaction. Seattle goes from a 7½-point dog to a 6½-point favorite in the span of one week against a very good team. That’s a swing of 14 points from one week to the next and it is so wrong. Never put too much emphasis on one game but that is precisely what this market is doing. That win over New England raises the Seahawks stock through the roof but it also pointed out that the rushing defense is not nearly as good as the passing defense. That bodes well for the Eagles. Besides, the Seahawks have turned in more ugly performances this year than impressive ones.
The Eagles rediscovered the ground game, and just in time. Ryan Mathews rushed for over 100 yards and scored twice to help the Eagles to a 24-15 win over the Falcons on Sunday. That puts them at 5-4 and in position to compete down a difficult homestretch. Holding the Falcons to 15 points is something. Strong on defense and special teams, the Eagles appear to be at their best when they're playing an opportunistic, ball-control style on the offensive side. We see absolutely no reason for them to get away from that formula here. This is a smart coaching staff coming off a very nice win to get the Eagles back on track. Philadelphia has far better unity than last season's squad and has the talent and coaching to make this one very competitive. Philly outright is tempting but Pete Carroll always comes out smelling like a rose so we’ll take the more cautious approach and grab the points.
Buffalo +125 over CINCINNATI
This pits a stumbling Bengals' team against the Bills who have just suffered through a bad patch in the schedule more than played poorly. At 3-5-1, the season is already all but lost for the Bengals since there is no reason to expect any improvement from OC Ken Zampese's first year. A 10-year old with Madden Football experience could call a better game than the idiot that the Bengals hired. With an offensive scheme that is only nine games old and described as "stale and predictable, Andy Dalton looks like a deer caught in the headlights. The decline in the defense doesn’t help the Bengals either. The Bengals three wins occurred against the Jets by one point in Week 1, against Week 4 Miami on a Thursday night and against Cleveland.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off back-to-back losses to Seattle and New England in which they scored 25 points in both games. The last two weak teams that the Bills played, San Fran and the Rams, Buffalo won both times while outscoring that pair, 75-35. The Bills other two wins came against New England and Arizona. So while the Bengals look worse every week against weak competition, the Bills are playing some inspired football. The Buffalo Bills are much better than their record. They just are not better than their schedule but that all likely changes here. Buffalo outright.
NOTE: Plenty of more NFL games with picks and analysis can be found in our weekly blog section.
MINNESOTA -2½ over Arizona
An optimist might say that there was good, bad and ugly in the Cardinals' win over San Francisco on Sunday. Arizona returned to the passing game after the 49ers made it a priority to stop David Johnson, whom the Cardinals leaned heavily on during the first half of the season after defenses focused on taking away their vertical passing game. Sunday was a breakthrough for Arizona, to some degree, as it returned to the passing game with two 100-yard receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. That’s nice but that was against the putrid 49ers and the Cards needed a FG on the final play of the game to win by three against a San Fran team coming off three losses by 18, 17 and 29 points to New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Buffalo respectively. Carson Palmer looks decrepit and lost out there and now Arizona takes a massive step up in class this week when facing the Vikes defense. If Arizona scores anything, it’ll be shocking.
The plight of the Vikings is sure an interesting one. Not many 5-4 teams create the sense of gloom and doom as the Vikings have. After an amazing stretch of five games won largely thanks to a defense that both scored and prevented opponents from scoring, it doesn't work the same anymore. Coming off their Week 6 bye, this has not been the same team. The defense is not as good and the offense has continued to decline. OC Norv Turner committed a sort of hara-kiri rather than take the ride down. For a team that suddenly looked like the power of the NFC East for a time, the Vikings look more like a team that is becoming unraveled with no reason to assume a turn around. The Vikings asked Sam Bradford to throw the ball 40 times on Sunday, and their leading rusher (Matt Asiata) ran for 16 yards. They returned to a number of the negative plays coach Mike Zimmer had sought to eliminate, and after the 26-20 loss to the Redskins on Sunday, guard Alex Boone said, "It's like teams know what we're doing now." Ya think, Alex? Anyway, the point is that the Vikings stock is very low and now they’re underpriced because of it. This now becomes the best time in a long time to buy some Minnesota stock and that is precisely what we are going to do. The Cardinals scare nobody.
Jim Feist
Jazz at Nuggets
Pick: Under
Utah plays great defense, looking to control the tempo. The Under is 17-8 in the Jazz's last 25 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Denver plays its best defense at home and when these rivals meet the under is 5-0, as well as 8-1 under the total in Denver.
Vegas Butcher
TEN @ IND -2.5
Not surprisingly, after last week’s shellacking of the Packers, the Titans are getting plenty of love from the public. Looks like the sharps have also jumped in the mix, moving the line from the opener of -3. That’s a fairly significant move actually, and the type that forces an astute bettor to look at the home team in most cases. Let’s join those guys and see if we can find a way to back the Colts. First, let’s not forget that Indy just beat the Packers themselves, and they did it on the road, in Lambeau. Second of all, they’re coming off a BYE-week, giving them extra time to prepare and more importantly, to get healthier. A couple of defenders are set to return, most importantly FS Mike Adams. Offensively, Colts are fully healthy as well for the first time since week 1. When these two teams met earlier this year (TEN -4 at home), Indy averaged 6.5 YPP to Tennessee’s 4.9. They were more inefficient on 3rd downs (4 for 10) than the Titans (9 for 15), which made it a back-and-forth type of game with each team trading leads late. I think overall, both teams are fairly even here, and with Indy being at home (Luck is undefeated against the Titans in his career so far - this is not a factor, but an interesting trend nonetheless), I’d give them a very slight edge. With the spread below a FG, this one might be just playable. (By the way, in the offseason, this line was IND -8 FWIW) Lean: IND -2.5
JAX @ DET -6.5
Coming off a BYE week the Lions find themselves at top of NFC North. They didn’t even need to do anything, as all other divisional opponents simply lost last week. But Detroit better not be looking ahead to their Turkey-day game with the Vikings in 4 days. Jags are on a 4-game losing streak, but do you know that the current spread is the second highest all year for them, after they were +7.5 @ KC a few weeks back. Neither Smith nor Ware played in that one though, so the number would have been higher. Still, my point here is that Lions are getting a lot of respect from the bookmakers in this one. This team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite on the year and they still sport the league’s worst defense. Even a crappy offense led by a crappy QB like Bortles should have success here right?....Right?? On the other side, Jags sport a 13th ranked pass-D, which is an important factor going up against a pass-heavy offense like the Lions. In the off-season this line was -3.5 DET. They feel over-valued as well. JAX +6.5
TB @ KC -7
I got this one at -6.5 KC, so the road team is worth some investigating, though the +7.5’s are gone now unfortunately. Part of the reason the line moved is that the bookmakers expect the Chiefs to be undermanned I’m assuming. Maclin is out, Peters (their stud CB) hasn’t practiced all week, DE Howard is out, and Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are all questionable after each logging one limited practice each. Justin Houston will make his debut this week, though I think he’ll be on snap count in his first game back. One thing to keep in mind is that KC hasn’t really been that dominant lately, even though they’re sporting a 5-win trend. They needed a massive comeback against the Panthers last week and got totally outplayed against the Jags (6.0 YPP vs 4.1 YPP for KC) the week before, winning only due to a 4 to 0 TO differential in the game. Now with a big game @ Denver next week this one is shaping up as a classic ‘look ahead’ spot for them. Throw in all the injuries and a TD spread, and this one seems fairly solid. Lean: TB +7
CHI @ NYG -7.5
My model has this one at NYG -7, so there’s slight value on the Bears due to the ‘hook’. But what a miserable season this is turning out to be for Chicago. There are reports that Jay Cutler has “lost the locker room” (whatever the heck that means) from current Bears players supposedly. Alshon Jeffery is on the ‘juice’ and is going to miss the next 4 games. Chicago’s O-line is heavily depleted with Long out for the year and Massie missing this week with a concussion. This team is a mess and now will go against a top-10 Giants D. New York is coming off a big win on MNF, and due to a shorter turnaround, I wouldn’t overpay to back them either. PASS
ARZ @ MIN -2.5
Once ‘darlings’ of the NFL, these two teams have fallen back into mediocrity as the season has gone on. Both teams feature top-10 defense, but horrific, bottom-10 offenses. Both can rush the passer and neither has the O-line to protect their QB. Arizona barely…and I do mean, barely, beat San Francisco at home last week. Vikings are now sporting a 4-game losing streak. My model has this one at -2 MIN. If you still haven’t figured out what my recommended course of action is here, then you’re not reading these every week! PASS
BAL @ DAL -7.5
I’ve faded the Cowboys for 4 straight weeks now with disastrous results of course. They just keep on winning and covering in the process. Elliot and Prescott are two super-rookies, who have seemingly never heard the concept of a “rookie wall”. At the very least, they’re not ‘hitting’ it just yet. Well, I’m going to recommend potentially fading the Cowboys once again here. My model has this one at -6.5 DAL, so the current line provides a ton of value as the ‘hook’ is in play (Remember, 7 is a key # in NFL). Last week Dallas faced a team with a great offense and a bad D. They barely pulled it out, as predictably (no Church and no Claiborne, their best players in the secondary) the D was bad (allowed 30 points). The offense did just enough to grab a close win. This week, Dallas will face a Baltimore team with an elite defense but a horrific offense. Ravens rank #1 in run-D, 5th in rushing the passer, and 6th against the pass. This team is 1st in Power Scenarios on defense and doesn’t allow runners many yards once they do get to the second level. If any team can stop this Dallas rushing attack, this is it. Will they be able to do it? I’m not sure, as the Cowboys have been matchup-proof so far this season. Still, I think Baltimore brings them down to Earth a bit here. This team has had 10-days to prepare and I expect Harbaugh to have them ready. Offensively, Baltimore has gotten Steve Smith back over the last few weeks, their young rookie RB Kenneth Dixon is finally fully healthy, and Marshal Yanda, their best O-lineman, is set to rejoin the team after missing a few games. Baltimore’s offense is in best shape they’ve been in weeks and I expect them to score some points here. In the NFL, a 7-point spread is a ton. Cowboys have played well enough to show they are deserving of such respect, but I think this week is when they underperform. Lean: BAL +7.5
PIT @ CLE +8
I have this one at -5.8 PIT, so there’s a lot of value on the home dog at this number. Cleveland looked way overmatched the last few weeks, but they’ve faced top-ranked Dallas team and an elite defensive team in the Ravens in those contests. Now they’ll take on a Pittsburgh team that is bottom-10 defensively. Expect the Steelers to be even worse going forward as their stud DT Cameron Heyward is out for the year. Pittsburgh has the worst pass-rush in the league, a bottom-10 pass-D, and now a run-D that is going to get gashed. If Browns can’t score points on this team, they won’t on anyone. Oh, and they’ve had 10-days to prepare for this one. I know it’s not easy, but backing an undervalued home dog is typically a winning proposition. You have such a scenario here. By the way, with almost 90% of all the best on the Steelers, the line moved from -10 to -8: RLM at it’s finest for those that like to look at such a thing. Lean: CLE +8
MIA @ LAR +2
I think this Rams offense is going to get ‘worse’ before it gets better. I watched this Goff kid in preseason and he looked absolutely clueless playing the most crucial position in football. There’s A reason why he didn’t become a starter till now. He’s NOT ready, but of course Fisher is under a ton of pressure to get him into the game. Miami is sporting a 6th ranked D overall and 4th against the pass. I think Goff’s debut is going to be a disaster. To make matters worse, Gurley re-injured himself at Friday’s practice. He played with a thigh issue last week and looks like it acted up again. Averaging a pathetic 3.1 YPC on the season, expect an even worse performance out of him if he does play. This Rams offense is going to be really bad in this matchup. On the other side, Dolphins are dealing with a lot of injuries. They’re without two starting O-linemen, in Pouncey and Albert and their WR’s are a bit banged up though both should play (Landry / Stills). Still, they’re a much better team than the Rams, and even if their offense plays well below expectations, Miami should have a strong shot of grinding out a win. They are taking this game seriously, as they decided to stay in Southern California after their game @ SD last week, instead of flying back home to Miami. Smart move, similar to what Oakland did a few weeks ago when they played b2b in Florida. Lean: MIA -2
NE @ SF +11.5
I have NE -9 here, so there’s value in the home dog above 10. This one is similar to the PIT @ CLE, where you have a superior road team being a heavy favorite….AND overvalued. I think when you have scenarios like this, it’s important to remember that the ‘spread’ is a great equalizer in football. Everyone knows that NE > SF, but is NE -11.5 > SF +11.5? Well, that latter one is debatable of course. New England played a tough game against Seattle at home and now travels cross-country for this one. Sure, they’re motivated to ‘win’ but are they motivated for a ‘blowout’? New England is without Gronk, they traded their best LB last week, and they’ll also be missing Chris Hogan. More importantly, this is a 27th ranked pass-D with non-existent pass-rush (ranked 31st). Expect the Pats to slow the game down by running down San Francisco’s throat, and by minimizing the number of possessions they’ll ultimately have in a game, the chance for a home team cover is that much greater. I’d look to back the ‘value’. Lean: SF +11.5
PHI @ SEA -6.5
The spread says that Seattle is 3.5 points better than the Eagles on neutral field. That’s completely inaccurate. Whatever metric you want to look up, Eagles rank as either a ‘better’ team or just as good as the Seahawks. So why is Seattle this big of a favorite? Well, partly because the public loves them and is overwhelmingly on ‘em (70%+). I backed the Seahawks last week as they were greatly undervalued at NE for my Game of the Week. Big part of that was due to New England’s non-existent pass-rush, as I felt that Wilson will be able to do whatever he wanted. He did, and Seattle won. Well, against the Eagles, it’s going to be totally opposite. Philly ranks 2nd in rushing the passer and I expect them to make life very uncomfortable for Wilson. In addition, Philly ranks 1st in pass-D, while New England is 27th. I don’t think Baldwin will be scoring 3 TD’s this week. I know Philly is starting a rookie, which is always dangerous in Seattle, but I think Pederson will once again utilize a heavy run approach here, trying to control the flow and keep Seattle’s offense off the field. Keep in mind that Bennett is still out, and Seattle’s pass-rush isn’t even close to what it is with him in the lineup. I think Wentz and Co. will be alright. This would have been my Game of the Week this week if not for the one I selected, as that one has even better matchup advantages than this. Play: PHI +6.5
GB @ WAS -3
The Packers simply look ‘cooked’. The offense looks broken, they have no big-play ability, and the defense can’t stop anyone. Washington, on the other hand, has been impressive. Still, this is a team that is 1-5 ATS as a favorite over the last few years. They are a better team, and my model has them at -4, but I simply can’t back them as a favorite, especially when I’d need them to win by more than a FG. PASS
Wunderdog
Buccaneers @ Chiefs
Pick: Under 45
The Kansas City Chiefs are a big surprise at 7-2 to start the season. What may not be such a surprise is their five-game winning streak. The Chiefs have been the NFL's streakiest team over the last four years, putting together at least a five-game winning streak now for four consecutive seasons. One hallmark of the Chiefs' winning streaks has been defense, and that is no different this season as they have allowed just 76 points in the five games at 15.2 points per game, and no team has topped 21. The offense is another story as Kansas City has not topped the 20-point mark in their last two wins. Tampa Bay comes in off of 36 points vs. the Bears, but a lot of that was a product of poor defense and four Chicago turnovers. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just one time in their last five games. Tampa Bay averages just 5.3 yards per play vs. a schedule allowing 5.6, so they are still a below average offense. The Chiefs are 16-6 to the UNDER the last three years vs. a team that averages 235+ passing yards a game, and 41-22 to the UNDER off of three consecutive wins.
DAVE COKIN
BILLS AT BENGALS
PLAY: BILLS +2.5
I think you can stick a fork in the Bengals if they get beat today, and I definitely feel that’s a possibility.
Buffalo is now a Top 10 team on the efficiency numbers. The Bills are also +57 on point differential when stacked up against the Bengals. That’s not always the single most reliable variable when sizing up an individual game, but it certainly indicates which team is probably the better entry.
Buffalo has been its own worst enemy, which is why they’re 4-5 and losers of three straight. But I think that’s also getting us a favorable number here.
The Bengals are pretty much doing what I suspected they might do this season, which is fall back to the pack. I thought the window might have closed following yet another playoff disaster to end the 2015 season. I stated at the time that it was my belief that there needed to be a coaching change or else the team ran the risk of getting stale. That definitely seems to be taking place as this year’s Cincinnati entry is an underachiever.
I’m looking at this as a very winnable game for Buffalo. They might simply be the better team, but beyond that, I like the situation as Cincinnati is shaping up as a down the stretch fade possibility. I’ll grab the available points with the Bills.
Bruce Marshall
Tennessee +2.5
Andrew Luck is still unbeaten vs. Tennessee after Indy stretched its win streak vs. the Titans to 10 with its latest triumph at Nashville Oct. 23. But things change in sports (hey, the Cubs just won the World Series!). And emerging Tennessee is no longer the doormat it has been the past few years when dominated by Indy. Titans' foes can no longer count on youthful mistakes from Marcus Mariota, who burned the Pack with 4 TDP last week. Meanwhile, the Colts (off their bye) have been doing no better than alternating wins and losses.
Teddy Covers
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Play: Ravens +7½
Fresh off a lucky winner with the Saints on Thursday, Teddy is now 64-43 (60%) in the NFL since the start of 2015. And fresh off an easy 3 TD winner with Kansas State on Saturday, Teddy is now hitting 67% with his Big Ticket Reports over the past five weeks. Get the best of both worlds with his Big Ticket 'Wrong Team Favored' winner on Sunday!
No team in the NFL is hotter than Dallas, winning and covering each and every game since their Week 1 home loss to the Giants. Over the last month, they’ve won tough road games at Green Bay and Pittsburgh. But at home, they were lucky to get past Philadelphia and even luckier to cover the spread in overtime; continuing a long term trend of struggles to cover as a home favorite throughout the Jason Garrett era.
The Cowboys left it all on the field with their big win over the Steelers last week, a wild game that went back and forth through the final minute. Up next? A huge divisional showdown against hated rival Washington on Thanksgiving Day; a short week ahead. In between? This non-conference affair against a Ravens team; a game they’ve got to win by more than a TD to cover the spread. For Dallas to overcome this flat spot, they’d need an opponent they can just steamroll, like they did to the Browns a few weeks back.
But the Ravens aren’t getting steamrolled by anyone these days – all four previous losses for this first place squad have come by eight points or less; competitive games. John Harbaugh’s defense is ranked #1 in the NFL against the run (yards per rush) and #3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Their offense finally found some rhythm running no-huddle in the second half last week, turning a 7-6 deficit into a 28-7 victory. And, let’s not forget – Baltimore’s in first place right now; just like Dallas; a capable football team. Too many points!