Big Al
Green Bay vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
This is a re-match of last season’s NFC Wild Card game, which was also played here at FedEx Field. The Redskins were favored by 2 points in that game, but Green Bay pulled the upset with a 35-18 win. And that victory extended the Packers’ dominance in this series to 7-3 straight up and 8-1-1 against the spread. Notwithstanding those statistics, I’m going to take the Redskins in this game. Washington’s covered six of its last seven games, and hasn’t allowed a team to score more than 27 points since its season-opening loss to the Steelers. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s given up at least 31 points in each of its last three games — all straight-up losses — and the Packers were actually favored to win their two previous games. That doesn’t bode well for Mike McCarthy’s crew as teams off back to back upset losses are a soft 182-222 ATS in the regular season since 1980. Even worse: losing teams have covered just 4 of 22 road games if their opponent is playing with revenge from a defeat in the Playoffs the previous season.
Joe Gavazzi
Tennessee Titans +3
There is nothing more important in sports betting than getting to the party on time. With the linemaker adjusting more quickly than ever, it is vital, that as a handicapper, we react quickly to changes in the fortunes of a team. When that happens to opposing teams in the same game, it is imperative that we take advantage. We are bucking a lot of history in making this underdog call. But, the reality of the performance of these teams is a long way from the public’s continued perception. The linemaker and public continue to perceive the Colts as being a team that looks to enjoy the same success as they did in the waning years of QB Manning and the outset of the career of QB Luck. It is so easy to fall into the trap that the Colts’ earlier victory of 34-26 at Tennessee is a sign that not much has changed between these teams. Nothing could be further from the truth. The history book says that, under QB Luck, the Colts are 18-4 SU in divisional play and have won 10 straight games against these Titans. They are also 9-2 ATS coming off their BYE week. That was at a time when the Colts had among the best line play in the league. Now, an aging roster has grown long in the tooth with a DL unable to provide much pressure on opposing QBs and an OL that is in shambles allowing Luck to be sacked 34 times this season. On the other sideline is a Tennessee team, whose past transgressions are etched in the mind of the public. There are bad historical numbers everywhere you look, including a run of 1-12 ATS when coming off a victory. That is their role this week, as they enter following a trouncing of a fading Green Bay team in which they outrushed the Packers 30/162 to 13/69 and profited from a (+3) net TO margin. But, if you think there is going to be a letdown off that win, then you underestimate the hunger of this team in this division rivalry as well as their great improvement. The Titans haven’t been to the playoff party in 7 years. At last, however, the defense has improved. Credit DC LeBeau (Pittsburgh), who brings the Titans in with a defense that is better across the board than the Colts, including 42 YPG. They also feature the superior offense across the board. Most particularly, consider their 30/146/4.9 running numbers as compared to the Colts’ 24/98/4.1. That running offense for the Titans is No. 3 in the league, trailing only Buffalo and Dallas. Each of these teams comes off an upset of Green Bay (the Colts prior to their BYE week) and each of these teams trails Houston for the division lead by 2 losses. Today, however, we know who the better team will be as they take the field. And, it is not the one perceived in the eyes of the linemaker and public. Reborn Titans’ offense has averaged 33 PPG L6G behind Mariota, who has a 17/3 ratio. Along with the better running game and defense, we will take the superior team as dog to break the stranglehold of the Colts in this series.
Buffalo Bills +2.5
Seldom do I use an underdog in the role of STEAMROLLER. This one, however, is clearly warranted. The Bills thought highly of themselves following their 16-0 upset of New England and ensuing romps over outmanned LA and San Fran, when they totaled 505 overland yards in 2 games. But, what goes up in the NFL must come down! That is the position the Bills find themselves in today. When they were first on the wrong side of the revamped Miami ground game, returned home to be avenged by the Patriots, then flew to Seattle for a primetime game in which, despite outrushing Seattle 38/162 to 12/33, they were unable to secure the victory. With a 3-game losing streak and a 4-5 SU record, look for a rebirth by Buffalo today. It comes in the form of their overland dominance against a Cincinnati team, who got outrushed by the lowly Giants’ ground attack 122-78 in their 21-20 MNF loss. That drops the Bengals, a perennial playoff participant, to 3-5-1 SU, 2-7 ATS. In fact, since their 8-0 SU ATS start of last year, the Jungle Cats are 7-10-1 SU and 8-10 ATS. With a rushing defense that is allowing 117/4.4, it is grist for the running mill that is the Buffalo Bills, who will STEAMROLL them into submission at the line of scrimmage today.
JACK JONES
Arizona Cardinals +2
The Arizona Cardinals are still one of the top 5 teams in the NFL in my opinion even though they are just 4-4-1 on the season. The numbers prove to me that they are still among the elite, and I don't believe they should be underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings today.
The Cardinals rank 2nd in the NFL in yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up just 4.7 yards per play on defense, which is the best mark in the league. They are also 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 86.8 yards per game.
The Minnesota Vikings are in a downward spiral right now that I don't see them turning around today. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Injuries to their offensive line and skill players have really set them back offensively.
The Vikings rank 19th in the NFL in yardage differential and 21st in yards per play differential. They are dead last in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 302.3 yards per game. They are tied for last with the Texans averaging just 4.7 yards per play.
Because the offense hasn't been able to possess the football and move the chains, the Vikings have suffered defensively in recent weeks. They have given up at least 20 points in each of their four consecutive losses. They allowed 26 points and 388 total yards to the Redskins last week.
I believe that the narrow 23-20 win over San Francisco last week has the Cardinals undervalued here. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game and led 14-0 before taking their foot off the gas. But this game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.
They put up 443 total yards while holding the 49ers to 281 yards, outgaining them by 162 yards. But they committed four turnovers to keep the 49ers in the game after committing just two in their previous four games combined. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.
DAVE PRICE
Green Bay Packers +3
Remember last year when the Green Bay Packers were written off heading into the playoffs after they lost to the Vikings in Week 17 to lose the division. They went into Washington and dominated 35-18 as 2-point underdogs. Now everyone is giving up on the Packers off 3 straight losses, except the players in that locker room. I look for them to respond in a big way here Sunday and pull off the upset over the Redskins, who are now 3-point favorites in the rematch. The Packers are in better shape this week as James Starks is healthy, and they may use new signee Christine Michael in the running game. And Clay Matthews is expected to make his return for the defense, and he's their most important player. The Redskins are just 3-18 ATS at home when playing against a team with fewer wins than they have. The Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -½ +116 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. We’re really not sure how the Jets are going to summon up enough energy to compete here. The Jets played last night in Boston. They will play their eighth game in the past 12 days, their fourth game in the past six, their third game in four days and the tail end of back to backs after playing in Boston last night. This one is also an earlier start, as the puck drops at 5:00 PM EST. The Jets managed a mere 12 shots on net yesterday in Boston. The most shots the Jets had had in any one period last night was five. Boston fired away 38 shots. Aside from the absolute brutal schedule that the Jets are enduring right now, this is their third road game in a row and their fourth road game in their last six that included a trip to Colorado and Arizona. The Jets are also playing shorthanded with as many as six regulars out and while this is a deep and talented team, the toll that the injuries and schedule has taken has caught up to them and Carolina is not a good matchup under those circumstances.
We love that the Hurricanes were not at their best when they beat Montreal on Friday night. It shows progress that they can win when they don’t play to their potential. In the past, that’s a game they would’ve lost for sure. One can expect a stronger effort here because that’s who the ‘Canes are. The Hurricanes relentless pursuit of the puck is a beautiful thing to watch and so is their second to none group of defensemen. Justin Faulk returned to duty last game and now has that one game back under his belt. Carolina has won three in a row over Washington, San Jose and Montreal. They outshot Washington and San Jose by a combined 71-43. They have taken four minor penalties over their past three games. This is a talented, disciplined and very methodically sound group. The ‘Canes figure to be highly energized here after one of their weaker performances on Friday and they catch a Jets’ squad that is running on fumes, which means chasing the puck and taking a bunch of penalties along the way.
Harry Bondi
Jacksonville / Detroit Over 47.5
We have the perfect storm here for a high scoring game. Played indoors in perfect conditions, this is a match-up between two of the worst rushing offenses in the game, which means both teams will be throwing the ball and extending the game. What’s more, the Lions have gone a staggering 20-5 to the over at home when the total is posted at 48 points or under, so with that trend in mind and Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford slinging the ball around all afternoon, we’ll take the OVER!
David Banks
Green Bay @ Washington
Pick: Green Bay -3
Two teams headed in very different directions will meet on Sunday night in the nation’s capital. The Redskins have lost just once in their last seven games and are still very much alive in the wild card race.
The Packers, on the other hand, have recorded only one victory in their last five games and have dropped three straight. Their visions of the postseason are slowly beginning to slip away.
Green Bay’s defense has given up 33, 31, and 47 points in its last three games, all losses. They will face a Redskins passing game that is third in the NFL led by QB Kirk Cousins. The former Michigan State star has 2,716 yards passing and 14 touchdowns for Washington whose only loss since September was a 20-17 setback at Detroit.
The Packers are still trying to figure out how to run the ball on offense. Running back James Starks is back from injury but in last week’s 47-25 loss to Tennessee, he managed just 33 yards and Green Bay as a team rushed for just 69. Without a running game, teams are able to tee up on QB Aaron Rodgers.
Tennessee sacked Rodgers five times last Sunday. The Redskins were able to get to Sam Bradford three times last week in a win over the Vikings. If they can harass Rodgers, they will have success.
Marc Lawrence
Packers at Redskins
Play: Packers
Edges - Packers: 4-0 ATS in the 2nd of 3 away games; and QB Aaron Rogers 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in his career in games when Green Bay owns a win percentage of less than .666 in games off a loss when taking on an opponent off a win, including 5-0 ATS dog. Redskins: 1-8-1 ATS last 10 games in this series, including 0-6 ATS when Green Bay owns a win percentage of less than .750, and 0-4 ATS as a favorite. With Rodgers 2-0 SUATS in his career in games off three losses-exact when not favored.
MIKE ROSE
Ravens at Cowboys
Play: Under 45
This has defensive white knuckled slobber knocker written all over it, and I can’t wait till these teams take to the gridiron Sunday afternoon! With playoff placement and win streaks on the line, we’re sure to get the best of what each side has to offer. With some extra time to game plan for Big D’s rushing attack, I can’t help but think Baltimore will be way up for the challenge of limiting what’s sure to be the NFL’s Rookie of the Year. That is unless Prescott steals it from him.
With the Ravens likely to limit the Cowboys rushing attack and Baltimore likely struggling to move the ball against Dallas’s defense consistently, this is going to be a game of field position that will likely be decided by a big play on special teams or a turnover. With the defense getting healthier, the under has cashed in each of the Ravens last two games. Look for Dan Bailey to come up with one extra made field goal against Justin Tucker to lead the Cowboys to the hard fought low scoring win and non-cover.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Play: Chicago Bears +7.5
The Chicago Bears and the New York Giants angle in a conference tilt at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey at 1:00 p.m ET on Sunday afternoon. Giants' quarterback Eli Manning hosts Bears' signal-caller Jay Cutler in a game that is expected to have a wintry mix of weather and windy conditions that include gusts of up to 30 m.p.h. in the Meadowlands.
Chicago is coming off a pathetic 36-10 beating at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bears QB Jay Cutler was a turnover machine in that one.
The Giants are coming off a 21-20 Monday night win over the Bengals, which puts their winning streak at four games.
This line opened at Giants -7 and is now at -7.5 pretty much across the board. I think this line is an overreaction to Chicago’s last game and newest injury issues.
The Bears lost star receiver Alshon Jeffery to a suspension. They will likely be without right tackle Bobby Massie (concussion), and they lost right guard Kyle Long to an ankle injury.
With the Bears off a blowout loss and missing several key players on offense, this becomes a solid “buy low” spot on Chicago. And with the Giants off four straight wins, this is a solid “sell high” spot on New York.
The Bears defense has gotten healthier, and they own an underrated secondary. Chicago also has a good, young running back in Jordan Howard that they can ride in this one.
It should be noted that the Giants have not won a single game this season by more than a touchdown. At 7.5, the backdoor is wide open here.
CAL SPORTS
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Play: Tampa Bay +7.5
KC has now won 5 straight games, they are tied for the best record in the AFC, they just beat a team on the road that went to the Super Bowl last year and next week they go to Denver which is only ½ game behind them in the standings. Oh yeah, this week we have to go out and play a team but no worries as that team is only 4-5 and we beat them in game #15 last season. That is almost the definition of a flat spot for the Chiefs not to mention that KC has only gained 256 yards and 261 yards their last 2 games. The Bucs had an easy 36-10 win last week controlling the game and while this is only their third road games they pulled the upset in each of their first two and now we’re getting over a TD!
OSKEIM SPORTS
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Play: Baltimore Ravens +7.5
The situation sets up nicely for Baltimore, who is coming off an easy 28-7 win over Cleveland on Thursday and has had a few extra days to prepare for the surging Cowboys, who have won and covered eight consecutive games.
Dallas is coming off a last-second 35-30 upset win over Pittsburgh on national television and has a critical divisional game against the Redskins on Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 24). NFL home favorites coming off a clash with Mike Tomlin's Steelers are a woeful 13-32 ATS in their next game.
Aside from the look-ahead factor, the Cowboys are now dealing with market inflation after reeling off 8 straight wins and covers. NFL teams that have covered the Vegas number in six or more consecutive games are a money-burning 45-53-2 ATS (45.9%). In addition, NFL teams off an upset win wherein they allowed more than seventeen points are just 372-438-22 ATS (45.9%).
Meanwhile, NFL underdogs of six or more points that limited their previous opponent to 12 or less points are a profitable 223-177-8 ATS (55.8%). And, since 2011, the Ravens are a perfect 8-0 ATS as underdogs following a game in which they were installed as favorites and allowed less than 200 total yards.
I also like the fact that Baltimore is 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 games versus .501 or greater opposition and 14-4-3 ATS in its last 21 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Dallas is an unreliable 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 home games, while head coach Jason Garrett is 3-13 ATS as a home favorite versus opponents off a win.
Bob Balfe
Rams +1
The Jared Goff era begins today in Los Angeles. It goes without saying a big performance will be a great thing for the city and the NFL. The Rams have won two games this year without scoring a touchdown. In this league and in these times that is really impressive. This Rams Defensive Line was banged up for the middle part of the year and now are getting healthy. Miami played on the west coast last week and did not fly back to Miami. These guys have all been away from their family and home for two weeks now. Living in hotels and dining out takes a toll on the body. Miami is really banged up on the offensive line which should slow up Jay Ajayi today. Miami is not good against the run which is good news for Goff as this team doesn’t put the weight of the world on his throwing arm.
Dr Bob
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
The Titans have shown the ability to put up points on anybody, as the past six games have seen Marcus Mariota & Co. put up an average of 34 points per game while going 4-2 in the process. The Polynesian Pride is quietly having a breakthrough sophomore year, ranking 5th in Net Yards per Pass with a 21/8 TD-INT ratio. The Titans are also buoyed by an elite rushing attack as Demarco Murray has regained his bulldozing form as the Titans rank 9th in yards per rush. The Colts have been the 30th ranked defense in terms of points given up, allowing 28 points a game and 6.2 yards per play, so even with the bye week there figures to be little resistance. On the other side of the ball Andrew Luck’s squad has managed to continue to find ways to score, averaging 27 points a contest going against a Titans defense that is ranked 25th by our numbers. The advanced stats model sees value on the Over, so OVER (52.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
In a game that could see inclement weather, the Total has crashed from an opening number of 50 to 46. The Browns have been the 30th ranked defense, giving up 7.8 NYPP and 4.5 YPR. However, the Steelers have been surprisingly almost as bad on defense as their AFC North counterparts, ranking 28th. The difficulty with backing winless teams is that it is tough to gauge when you will get effort, as they Brownies completely gave up last week against the Ravens after leading 7-6 at halftime. The advanced stats model leans to the Browns (+7.5), though it is below the threshold of a play. No opinion on the Total.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Touchdown Tom makes his return home, as it will be the San Mateo kid’s first game back in the Bay Area to face off against his childhood team, the San Franciso 49ers. The Niners are riding an eight-game losing streak as they have not won since week 1. However, they did make progress last week in the closest game during the streak, losing by only a field goal. While the Niners give up 31.4 points per game, the big problem with their team has been the downfield passing attack as Kaepernick has been a shell of his younger self, averaging only 6.0 NYPP. Tom Brady has been the polar opposite of whatever CK7 is doing inside and outside of the pocket, averaging 9.0 NYPP and even in a loss to the vaunted Seahawks pass defense, TB12 put up an efficient 316 yards and 72% completion rate. The advanced stats model leans to the Pats and Over, though both are below model thresholds.
Chris Jordan
My complimentary winner for Sunday is on the Tennesee Titans, on the road, in Indianapolis against the Colts.
There is a statement to be made here, as the Colts have terrorized Tennessee over the past five years. And we're talking bad. If there was an intangible to be had, or a new to embarrass this team - the Colts found a way to humiliate the Titans.
Indianapolis won on its home turf and on the road. They won while Andrew Luck was establishing himeself as the franchise quarterback, and they even won when former Titans starter Matt Hasselbeck took over briefly. Who remembers when Dan Orlovsky was under center.
There have been overtime wins, routs, late-game comebacks and defensive stops to preserve victories.
Guess what, with the Colts' faithful watching intently, a staggering 10-game losing streak comes to a halt Sunday in Indianapolis.
DeMarco Murray is playing well, the Titans are playing their best football in years and hey, how about Marcus Mariotta? They're in off a huge win over the Green Bay Packers and momentum is in their favor.
I like the road team here.
5* TITANS