Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, November 27th, 2016

Wunderdog

Arizona @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 51

This is a high NFL total because of the quarterbacks and all of the big name receiving options. However, in case you haven't noticed, 36-year old QB Carson Palmer (13 TDs, 10 INTs) is looking old and broken down. And he's getting worse, throwing just 8 TDs with 10 picks his last seven starts. Palmer has recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week. The defense allowed just 217 total yards. Arizona is 7-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. At least the defense is holding its end of the bargain, tops in the NFL in yards allowed, #10 in points (19 per game), and number one against the pass. Atlanta comes off the bye week and a loss at Philly, 24-15. Atlanta TE Jacob Tamme was placed on injured reserve and underwent shoulder surgery during the bye. And the team is 14-4 UNDER the total after a loss.

SPORTS WAGERS

Jacksonville +7½ over BUFFALO

Perhaps the Bills’ playoffs hopes strengthened last week with their outright win over Cincinnati but this is still a team that cannot be trusted spotting big weight. Furthermore, that wind tunnel in Buffalo in late November is not the best venue to be spotting significant points in. Buffalo’s offense is still a work in progress, as Tyrod Taylor still suffers from a lack of receivers and he’s not very good to begin with. Buffalo’s defense stepped up last week against Cincinnati but the Bengals have been going backwards for weeks now. Prior to playing Cincinnati, the Bills’ defense surrendered 28 points or more in three straight losses.

Boy, we keep going to this Jaguars well and we keep getting wiped out by some bizarre series of events. Jacksonville finds ways to lose but that’s a story for another book. The Jagwires are getting inflated points almost weekly and so we have to dip into that well one more time. The Jags have a decent defense and they have an offense that is composed of the same players that went off last season for major yardage and points. In other words, Jacksonville is a threat worth backing against a team that is just as big a risk as they are.

San Diego -1 over HOUSTON

Houston was being billed as the luckiest 6-3-1 team in the history of sports prior to last week’s Monday nighter against the high-flying Raiders. Most of the betting world was anticipating a Raiders blowout in Mexico but that didn’t happen. What happened was that Houston was the better team the entire night and should have won that game with no questions asked. Instead, the refs handed the game to the Raiders and not only did Houston get robbed, those that bet the Raiders ended up cashing one of the luckiest tickets they’ll ever cash. Ironically, it was Oakland that got extremely lucky.

That’s nice, it really is but we’re not going to allow one game or result to influence anything. It was a Monday night and the Raiders were flat as hell. Oakland was also told over and over that they were going to rip apart the Texans and only needed to show up to do so. The Texans were hell-bent on proving everybody wrong and played their hearts out for 60 minutes. This now becomes a spot in which we are likely to see the real Texans, a team that features one of the worst QB’s in the league. Brock Osweiler threw two passes right in the numbers of Oakland CB’s and they dropped them both. Anytime else and that is two picks on top of the two turnovers they already had. The Texans now play another strong squad from the AFC West. We’ll also see the effects of playing at that elevated level last week.

Losing to the visiting Dolphins meant falling one game behind the Raiders but the remaining schedule is very favorable for the Chargers and at worst, they remain in strong contention for a Wild Card. They are a club intent on making the playoffs too. The Bolts have had two weeks to prepare. They are a play or two in every loss from being an undefeated squad. Philip Rivers has been solid all year and even more so over the last month and comes off a nice 326 yard, three touchdown effort over the Dolphins. Rivers already has 20 touchdowns on the season, he’s topped 300 yards on five occasions and his best efforts have been on the road. The Texans may not have been exposed last week but they will likely be this week and we’re all over it.

ATLANTA -5 over Arizona

One of the Super Bowl favorites in the preseason, the Cardinals have taken a step back this year. They started the season 1-3 and haven't been able to dig themselves out of that hole. The big difference this season is that quarterback Carson Palmer looks a lot more like the beat up 36-year-old he is than the MVP runner up that threw for over 4500 yards last season. This year has been a nightmare for Palmer, as he has 10 interceptions to just 13 touchdown passes. Bruce Arians said this week that Palmer “isn't the problem” and he might be right. Palmer has been under siege all season and that was highlighted in Minnesota last week when Palmer was the first quarterback this season to be pressured on more than 60 percent of his drop backs. It also doesn't help that Palmer has one steady receiver and that's Larry Fitzgerald. When throwing to “Fitz”, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 104.6. When he looks at Michael Floyd or John Brown that plummets to a pathetic 62.2. The Cardinals are 0-2-1 in their last four including last week's 30-24 loss in Minny. That was a very flattering score for the visitors. The Cards have four wins this season and they are not impressive, as they occurred against San Francisco (twice), the Jets and Tampa Bay. Arizona has been brutal when travelling east this season, losing all three of their road games games in the eastern/central time zones at Minny, Carolina and Buffalo. Two were double-digit losses and last week they allowed the punchless Vikes to hang 30 on them.

The Falcons are coming off their bye after a 24-15 loss at the Eagles in Week 10. There have been some rumblings over their off week that these Falcons are primed for a collapse much like last season but they appear intent on proving the naysayers wrong. The total in this game is 50½, which suggests that the odds makers think this one could be a high scoring affair. Who's going to score all those points? The Falcons are averaging 416 yards per game through the air and they lead the league with 32 points scored per game while the Cards are averaging just 22 PPG. With this game primed to be in the 45 to 55 total points scored range, we wonder how the Cardinals will compete. The Cards are bringing a knife to a gunfight on a fast track and we are therefore swallowing the points.

Dr Bob

San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans

Quarterbacks are the franchise faces of NFL teams. They can carry a team to victory or defeat with the Chargers and Texans unquestionably at the opposite ends of the QB satisfaction spectrum. The Chargers are equipped with gunslinger Philip Rivers, who is having another tremendous season, in-line with his illustrious 13-year career. San Diego is the 7th ranked passing team, throwing for 7.1 NYPP and 48.6% success rate. Brock Osweiler’s career has just begun, however, it will be a surprise to everyone if he lasts 13 more weeks, as he has the Texans ranked dead-last in NYPP with a dreadful 5.0 NYPP and 42.8% success rate. Despite the Texans being 6-4 and Chargers 4-6, San Diego is favored on the road. It is easy to look at the quarterback play of the Texans and laugh. However, this ball club has been in every game except for against elite units/team (NE, DEN, MIN). The Texans have the 10th ranked defensive unit in the league and can make it difficult for even franchise quarterbacks. The Texans have been able to have a winning record despite the -6 turnover differential, so as bad as the offense has been, the defense has been able to carry the team for much of the season. On the other side of the ball, while the San Diego defense has improved, they are still the 20th ranked defense that has allowed 28 points per game. The advanced stats model sees value on the team from Texas, so Texans (+1.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to OVER (46).

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are coming off a loss and a bye and suddenly find themselves in a tight NFC South race, where they have only a 1-game lead. Despite losing the game to Philadelphia before the bye, Matt Ryan continued to perform at a high level, throwing for 7.3 NYPP as he has the Falcons as the number 1 passing team based on adjusted NYPP (8.3 NYPP). Matty Ice will face a difficult test as he faces the #3 pass defense in the league in Arizona. Although the two other times he faced top ranked defenses this season(Broncos and Seahawks), the Falcons put up 23 and 24 points while Ryan averaged 7.5 NYPP in those bouts.

The Cardinals’ Carson Palmer has continued to be unable to get the passing game going, having his worst statistical season in 7 years, although the red birds may find an easier time going against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in success rate allowed (50.7%). The high scoring teams have continued to outpace the market as OVER teams have been able to surpass the high Totals set as any game that has a Total of OVER (47) or higher has cashed at a 59% rate. The advanced stats model shows value on the dirty birds and Over, so Falcons (-4) and OVER (50.5) are Strong Opinions.

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

While the Niners lost to the Patriots and Cardinals the past two weeks, they have finally realized they need to play like they are the underdog, not favorite in order to keep games closer. The Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill continue to impress, now sitting at 6-4, after starting the season 1-4. However, the matchup against the Niners could prove difficult as they are ranked 23rd in stopping the run, giving up 4.4 yards per rush, which is the biggest strength of San Francisco’s team as they rank 10th in adjusted yards per rush. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (44.5) and 49ers (+7.5), though both are below thresholds.

Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders

After the Monday Night Fiesta, in which El Chapo called in the Raiders victory/cover, Oakland is 8-2 and firmly in control of the title of the highest overachieving team this season. The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL and a -0.4 yards per play differential, as much of their winning ways are due to the extremely positive and highly random +10 turnover differential. Although, while they have overachieved, the Raiders are still an explosive offense as they rank 6th in overall offense due to their ability to gain chunk yardage through the air and ground. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have underperformed expectations all year, sitting at 4-6, with a defense allowing 25 points a game. Despite Cam Newton not performing up to his previous 2015 MVP-winning season, he is still the 14th ranked passer in the league. One of the biggest differences in the Panthers disappointing season-to-date performance is that at this time last season they were +13 in turnover differential (ending the 2015 regular season +20) and are currently -5 in turnover differential season-to-date. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (49.5), upgrade to a Strong Opinion at (48). Lean to Raiders (-3).

DAVE COKIN

JAGUARS AT BILLS
PLAY: BILLS -7.5

Several factors have me siding with the chalk in this game between Jacksonville and Buffalo.

First, and this really sticks out to me, is the overall inefficiency of the Jaguars. They’re a really bad offensive team, in spite of the fact they have a few decent weapons. But quarterback Blake Bortles simply hasn’t gotten any better, and if you put stock into the opinion of former NFL QB’s who’ve weighed in with their assessments, he’s an absolute mess mechanically. Suffice to say Bortles has one of the poorer QB ratings, and it’s even worse when including the fact that a good amount of his production has come in late games once the issue has been settled.

The Bills got a much needed win on the road last week at Cincinnati. I happen to think Buffalo has been a bit of an underachiever this season. They have numbers that suggest they ought to be more than a .500 team, but the Bills are indeed only 5-5. This is must win for Buffalo if they’re to have any chance to snare a wild card.

It does not appear as though the potentially awful late November Buffalo weather will rear its ugly head here, so that’s a bit of a break for the Jaguars. Also, I’ll admit to at least a little concern that the Bills get complacent here. They’re off a big win, this is a soft opponent and the Buffalo has a huge date with the surging Raiders next Sunday.

Laying more than a TD is no cinch to be sure, especially given the fact the Bills are only a .500 team. But the numbers breakdown indicates that like could actually be a bit short. I actually make this Buffalo -9. Given that I sure don’t have a problem trying to beat the Jaguars almost anytime, I’m willing to give the points here with the Bills.

Bruce Marshall

Atlanta -5.5

This is something less than a vintage sports year in Arizona (Suns, D-Backs, Coyotes, U of A and ASU football...ouch!). And the Big Red haven't helped by dousing all of the Super Bowl hype and dropping under .500 by Thanksgiving. Carson Palmer's decline (13 TDs, 10 ints.) has been a major reason the once quick-strike offense has been replaced by a ground-based emphasis featuring RB David Johnson. But that might not be enough to keep pace with Matt Ryan, having a career year. The Atlanta attack is also likely whole again following bye week, as key RB Tevin Coleman returns to active duty.

King Creole

Giants / Browns Under 44.5

The New York Giants spent over 2 MILLION dollars in the off-season upgrading their defense, and it's paid off IN SPADES. They're allowing 8 LESS ppg (20.0) compared to last year (28.0), and are now in 2nd place in the NFC East. They've gone from one from one of the best OVER teams (11-5 O/U LY) to one of the best UNDER teams (3-7 O/U TY). And that includes a PERFECT 0-4 O/U on the ROAD, with an OU avg of -11.2 ppg. They should have no problems shutting down a Cleveland offense that's ranked #30 in points scored this season (16.7 ppg). As good as the Giants D has been, their offense is scoring 6 ppg LESS than last year too (26.0 in 2015 / 20.0 in 2016). So that sets up a LOW-scoring game in 'Believeland' this week.

Sharp OU players already know that 'BIG ROAD CHALK' tends to result in a high percentage of UNDERS. Just check out this week's Totals Tipsheet for conformation.

In the last 2 seasons, BIG road favorites of -7 > points (Giants) with an OU line of 52 < points have gone 1-18 O/U (0-15 O/U in the last 12 months).

Another situation that applies to the G-Men is their current 5-game WINNING streak (also mentioned on Page 3 of this week's Totals Tipsheet).

In the last 12 months, NFL favorites off 5 or more SU wins in a row (Giants) have gone 1-12 O/U when the OU line is 50 < pts.

Speaking of streaks, we all know that Cleveland in WINLESS on the year. They haven't even covered the spread since Week Six (now 0-5 SUATS L6).

0-6 O/U L3Y: All NFL teams off 5+ SU and ATS losses (Browns) when the OU line is 52 < points.

So Cleveland's W/L percentage is still at ZERO for the year (.000).

1-15 O/U last 3 years: All GAME 9 or greater 5 points who just scored 10 < pts in a division HOME game (Browns).

This will also be New York's FIRST road game in over a month. NFL teams off 3 or more HOME games in a row (Giants) have gone 2-16 O/U since 2011 when the OU line is 47 < points.

Vegas Butcher

Carolina Panthers +3

I’m going to fade both teams that played on MNF in Mexico City last week. Short week, playing in unusual environment (elevation over 7k feet). San Diego is coming off a BYE, while Panthers had an ‘almost’ BYE with 10-days off due to playing on TNF last week. Both will be much fresher than the two teams that just played on Monday Night.

Tennessee Titans -5.5

I was at the Bears @ Packers game on Thursday Night a month ago, when Hoyer got hurt, and Matt Barkley came in for him. Barkley was absolutely horrific. Yes, he’ll have more time to prepare for this one of course, but he’ll also be without Chicago’s top-2 weapons in the passing game: Jeffery and Miller. Throw in the fact that both stud guards are OUT for the Bears, as well as their 1st round pick Leonard Floyd on D. Titans rank 11th in pressuring the QB and a reasonable 15th against the run. Take away Howard and the run-game, and they should cruise to a victory in this one.

New Orleans Saints -7 -120

Two key factors. Saints rank a respectable 16th against the run on defense. I think last year they were 32nd so this is a huge improvement. If they take away the run-game, Goff isn’t good enough to keep this one competitive. Second factor is New Orlean’s 5th ranked O-line in terms of pass-protection. If they can minimize pressure on Brees, he should be able to pick the Rams apart. This is another game where a West Coast team is playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

Seahawks were @ NO in week 8, then flew home to take on Buffalo on MNF, then hit the road in week 9 to go to New England, then home again last week, and now back to the East Coast in week 12. That’s a lot of back-and-forth travel over the last 5 weeks or so. Bennett and now Earl Thomas are out for the Seahawks. Both are, arguably, their two most important defensive players. Bucs are coming off two very impressive wins, a blowout against the Bears and a close win @ KC last week. They’re playing well, and I like the chances of this game being very close.

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5

Prior to losing last week, KC has won 5 in a row. This is a bounce-back spot for them. Denver is getting healthier on D (Talib and Wolfe are back) but this is still a run-D that ranks 25th in the league. KC’s conservative offense should be successful here and I expect a close game between two divisional opponents. I’ll grab the team getting more than a FG in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Cardinals vs. Falcons
Play: Cardinals +4½

This game fits a system that has cashed 25 of 33 for road dogs of less than 5 like Arizona when both teams are coming off straight up and ats road dog losses. Arizona has a solid defense allowing nearly 100 yards less per game than Atlanta. The falcons have failed to cover 16 of the last 20 as a favorite, including 8 straight at home. Take the live dog in this one with Arizona.

Brandon Lee

Rams vs. Saints
Play: Saints -7

I'll back New Orleans at home against the Rams. Los Angeles has to feel like their season was lost after last week's crushing 10-14 defeat to the Dolphins at home. The Rams were in complete control of that game, leading 10-0 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, giving up the game-winning touchdown with less than 40 seconds to play. I don't think LA is going to be able to bounce back with the effort needed to win on the road against the Saints. Goff was far from impressive in his debut, completing just 17 of 31 for a mere 134 yards. I just don't see that offense being able to keep pace with Dree Brees and the New Orleans attack, which is averaging 31.0 ppg at home this season. The Saints also have a big scheduling edge in this one, as they played on Thursday in Week 11, giving them 3 extra days of rest and preparation.

Scott Spreitzer

Cardinals vs. Falcons
Play: Cardinals +4

When you look at the Cardinals' offensive and defensive numbers, you'd think they owned a better record than 4-5-1 SU. The defense continues to be underrated, partially due to a couple of injuries in the defensive backfield. But we expect Arizona to keep this one close throughout and maybe even steal a SU win. Carson Palmer has trouble against teams who apply decent pressure, but we don't expect much from the Falcon defense that ranks 31st against the pass and 28th in total yards per game. The Falcons have covered just two of their last 10 games at home and we will go against them here.

Chip Chirimbes

Rams vs. Saints
Play:Rams +7½

It is with tears in my eyes that I write this game for you as I had the Rams (On-Top) as my Megabucks Best Bet only to see them wilt in the final four minutes against Miami and I saw the Saints ;last week back-door me against Carolina. So, yes I still get a sick feeling thinking about LA just laying down. New Orleans meanwhile has shown more defense then previously reported and of course Drew Bees is among the best. But, the Rams have a first rated defense and it can create field position.

John Ryan

Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
Play: Jacksonville +7½

SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by less than 6 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 9* play on the line and a 1* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-20 over the last 10 seasons good for 72.2% winners and made a nice 30 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jaguars are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Bills are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Jaguars limited Detroit to just 14 yards on the ground last week but lost their third straight road game, two of them by one possession. Take Jacksonville Jaguars.

Alex Smart

Patriots vs. Jets
Play: Under 47

The Jets offense remains a very inconsistent unit, as was evident when they scored 6 points last time out vs the Rams with Bryce Petty making his first NFL start, and 3 points vs Arizona back in October, and have scored an average of just 17.2 ppg at home on the season. Both NYJ QBs - Bryce Petty ( 1 start) or struggling veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick on the down side of his career have provided ineptness to the extreme and I doubt the bye week will be a difference maker. Today against a New England defense that sacked Colin Kaepernick 5 times in the first half last week, and that has allowed just 18 ppg game overall, the Jets problems are highly likely to continue. The Jets saving grace this season, has been a fairly decent D, that has allowed an average of just 18.7 ppg as hosts. With an ultimate degree of respect for Pats super star QB Tom Brady and his explosive offense as well as New Englands stout D, I expect a very conservative approach to be the name of the game, for a Jets side that I am betting trys to slow this game down to a crawl via short passes and the run game, which will eat clock time. After going out west last week, to play SF and now back on the east coast this Sunday, I expect some fatigue from the Pats , and a not so explosive offensive performance. I am betting above combination, of forecasted events leads to a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total.

From a league wide NFL database: Home teams against the total like the ny jets - after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games have gone under 27 of the L/33 times.

Teddy Covers

Bengals vs. Ravens
Play: Ravens -4

The Bengals have been to the playoffs in each of the last five seasons. This year, they have three wins and it’s the final Sunday in November — Cinci will be home for the playoffs. Veteran teams who have been consistent playoff squads in every recent season aren’t known for giving max effort down the stretch of their first losing season in more than a half decade.

Cinci just lost their best playmaker, AJ Green, and their best running back, Giovani Bernard, real energy deflating defeats at this stage of the campaign. That’s very bad news against a Baltimore defense that ranks among the league leaders in just about every key defensive metric. Cinci scored 12 points against Buffaoo last week and they’ll be hard pressed to exceed that point total by any significant margin this week!

The tight, long term series history has put a cap on this pointspread, with the markets reluctant to lay a big price with John Harbaugh’s squad in this rivalry game. But with the first place Ravens coming off a loss at Dallas, it’s a clear ‘circle the wagons’ spot for the home favorite, primed to win this one by a TD or more.