Marc Lawrence
49ers vs. Dolphins
Play: 49ers +7½
Edges - 49ers: 15-8 SU and 17-6 ATS away against AFC East opponents, including 15-2 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Dolphins: 0-6 ATS off consecutive wins when facing the NFC West. With the Niners 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests against the AFC East, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Jimmy Boyd
Bengals vs. Ravens
Play: Ravens -3½
I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bengals. I know the Ravens have a tendency to play close games, but Cincinnati is in a lot of trouble. Not only did the Bengals lose a huge game at home, they lost two of the better offensive players to injury.
Star wide out A.J. Green suffered a hamstring injury that will have him out this week and maybe the rest of the season. Running back Giovanni Bernard is done for good after tearing his ACL. The loss of Green is a huge blow to the offense. His 66 receptions are easily tops on the team. In fact, the next best is Bernard with 39. Combined the two have been targeted on 151 of Dalton’s 360 pass attempts. Green also has 15 receptions of 20+ yards. The rest of the team has 22.
Dalton is already a limited quarterback as it is. With that said, he looks like a completely different signal caller when Green is on the field compared to when he’s not. Making matters worse, the Bengals are going up against one of the elite defenses in the NFL this week. Baltimore leads the league against the run (76.0 ypg) and are 7th against the pass (219.1 ypg).
It only makes it that much harder for Cincinnati with this game being on the road. The Bengals are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on the highway this season, where they are getting outscored by 6.7 ppg.
I just feel like we are getting value here due to the Ravens having gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. That actually puts them in a favorable situation. Baltimore is 14-4 ATS under Harbaugh after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
It is also worth pointing out that the Ravens have taken care of business against division foes. They are 3-0 versus the AFC North, with all 3 wins coming by at least 5-points. That includes a recent 21-14 win at home over the Steelers. Cincinnati on the other hand is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against division opponents.
Sean Murphy
Seahawks vs. Bucs
Play: Under 46
The Seahawks offense made it look pretty easy in last week's home win over the Eagles. I expect them to face a little more resistance this time around, however.
Tampa Bay is rolling after back-to-back wins, allowing just 27 points in the process. I like the way this Bucs defense has evolved as the season has gone on, and I'm confident they can keep Seahawks QB Russell Wilson under wraps on Sunday afternoon.
Of course, the 'Hawks defense won't shy away from this matchup. They have also been getting better, and healthier, as the season has gone on, and come into this one with a chip on their shoulder to be sure.
The most recent meeting between these two teams came back in 2013 - a game that went 'over' the total, reaching 51 points by way of overtime. We're dealing with a much higher posted total this time, though, and I believe it will prove to be too high.
Tony George
Patriots vs. Jets
Play: Jets +7.5
One thing is for sure, if it looks to good to be true in the NFL, it isn't. Tom Brady was held out of practice 3 days this week and is banged up, Gronk is out, and while the Pats did pull off a road win last week against San Fran, it did not come easy for 3 quarters.
The Jets start Fitzpatrick on Sunday and despite his constant errors in throwing picks it seems, the Pats defense has been suspect the past 4 weeks and this is usually a high scoring affair, 11-2 on the OVER the past 13 games in this series, and I expect the Jets to put up a fight as they usually do, as they are 5-1 ATS the last 6 at Met Life Stadium against the mighty Pats, and they are 10-5-1 ATS the last 16 meetings. The Jets are also 3-0 ATS the last 3 meetings.
Nothing comes easy in conference down the stretch boys, never has and never will, expect the Jets to give the Pats all they want on Sunday, and in a back to back road game scenario and a cross country trip last week, and an offense not at 100% for New England, I expect a dogfight on Sunday.
Brandon Shively
Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
Pick: Cincinnati
No A.J. Green. Check. No Giovani Bernard. Check. This is a do or die game for the Bengals and it’s a divisional game against an opponent they have owned over the last several years. If the Ravens had an offense that scared anybody, then I would think twice, but they don’t.
The Ravens are only averaging 19.9 ppg this year and their yardage is down 23 yards from last year’s team that was banged up for most of the season at the quarterback and receiver position. They have fired their offensive coordinator about a month ago and hired Marty Mornhinweg giving Flacco yet another OC to keep up the annual tradition of him learning new plays and offensive schemes and the offense is still dull.
The Bengals have gone to the playoffs five consecutive years. With only 3 wins this year, they know a win here is mandatory. The last time they lost to the Ravens was in 2013 and that was in overtime by 3 points. This game to me has the feeling of a back and forth game with someone winning by a field goal. The 3.5 or 4 points is big here and I feel the Bengals are a good pick here as the majority of the public bettors automatically see the injuries of Green and Bernard and assume the Ravens win this game. Not so fast.
Jeremy Hill is fully capable of toting the load out of the backfield and Rex Burkhead is a target coming out of the backfield. While A.J. Green will be missed, Andy Dalton has not been on the same page with Green at times this year. That means TE Tyler Eifert needs to step up and so do Tyler Boyd and LaFell.
Points could come at a premium here therefore making the points in this game very valuable. The Bengals have a solid core of offensive and defensive veterans on the team. They know what is at stake here.
Baltimore is a poor 3-8 ATS at home when the total is 42 points or lower going back to 2011. Four of the last 7 of these games has had a final margin of victory of 3 points or fewer. As a home favorite in general, the Ravens are 2-9 ATS their L11 on Sunday’s.
The Bengals have traditionally been a very good road team. While they have taken a step back this year, their 10-1 SU mark on the road when the total is 45 points or lower can’t be ignored. The underdog is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings and I think this game comes down to a late field goal or whatever team has the ball last. Take the points with the Bengals who play an inspired game without their stud wide receiver.
Jim Feist
Houston at Portland
Pick: Over
Go, go, go -- these offenses like to run the court with defense as an afterthought. Houston kicked off its second five-game road trip of the young season with its fourth victory in five contests - a 117-104 win over Sacramento on Friday behind an NBA-record 50 attempts from 3-point range and James Harden's fourth triple-double of the season. The Over is 35-16 when the Rockets face the NBA Northwest division. The Trail Blazers began a four-game homestand with a 119-104 victory over New Orleans on Friday. Portland (109.4 points per game) and Houston (108.5) are the fourth-and fifth-highest scoring teams in the NBA. Portland is 10-1 over the total at home and 41-20 over at home against a team with a winning road record. So what happens when these teams meet? The over is 20-7, including 8-2 over at Portland.
Cal Sports
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Play: New York Jets+ 7.5
Losses for the New England Patriots are few and far between and they clearly remember their last game versus the NY Jets which came in game #15 last season losing 26-20 in OT.
While some may call for revenge we’ll back the Jets as they have now covered SIX STRAIGHT against the Patriots and amazingly have OUTGAINED New England in all six games.
The Pats are playing their fourth road game in 5 weeks and are coming off a cross country trip beating San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Jets are off a bye week and are 4-0 ATS as a division HD the past four seasons.
Tom Brady will be without his go-to TE Rob Gronkowski and in the four road games Brady has played he faced the NFL’s #32, #31, #20 and #12 defenses with the Jets ranking better than all of them.
Mike Rose
Bengals at Ravens
Play: Under 40.5
Cincy's offense has had no problem moving the ball with it ranked #10 in total offense, but it’s 18.7 yards per point average (#29) shows just how tough its been to convert all those yards into points with Cincinnati scoring an average of just 19.9 points per game. The defense has been decent in allowing 22.6 points per game (#17), but has been taken advantage of on the ground. Thankfully Baltimore doesn’t have the ground attack to make it hurt.
Dallas became just the third team to have a running back go for 100+ yards against Baltimore’s stout run defense. Still, the unit ranks out at #1 in the league defending the run in giving up just 76 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry (#1). With Cincinnati down a running back, Baltimore will be getting a heavy dose of Jeremy Hill who has been limited to 96, 21, 25, and 19 yards in the last four meetings.
This division rivalry has seen the under cash in four of the last seven overall meetings. While both games last season averaged 46 points per game, offensive standouts for both teams won’t be suiting up this time around. That includes Giovani Bernard who ripped his ACL last week and is done for the season. Each of these offenses has had issues putting points on the board, and I don’t foresee that changing this week with so much on the line for both sides. The Bengals have played to low scorers in six of their last eight road games, while the Ravens are 3-0-1 to the under in their last four as well as 5-1 in their last six home games. Look for this Week 12 tilt to be dominated by both stop units.
Buster Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars head to Buffalo to play the Bills on Sunday with the Bills looking to try and keep their playoff hopes alive. As for the Jaguars it is another season of hope gone down the toilet for the struggling Jags. In saying this we have seen signs of life from the Jaguars in their last 3 games, losing by only 5, 3 and 7 points respectively against Kansas City, Houston and Detroit. In all 3 games the Jaguars won the yardage battle but lost the game. What really is going unnoticed is the Jaguars 6th ranked D in yards allowed. The last 3 games that D has held Kansas City to 231 yards Houston to 273 and Detroit to 277 yards. Now that's some great defense. As for the Bills at 5-5 they need to win and win often if they are going to compete for an AFC wild card berth. The Bills have some injuries on the offense and RB LeSean McCoy had surgery on his thumb this week so even if he does play he will obviously not be a 100%. Last year these teams played to a Jacksonville 34-31 victory in London. We see a similar close game in Buffalo. The Jaguars have committed 13 turnovers in the last 5 games which has been deadly to their chance of winning. If they keep the turnovers to a minimum, they might be able to beat the Bills OR. We are getting 7 1/2 points at the time of this writing so we will gladly take them.
Dwayne Bryant
Giants at Browns
Play: Under 44
The Browns have been changing quarterbacks like most people change underwear. Cody Kessler is injured, so Josh McCown should once again be under center for Cleveland. The Browns have scored a grand total of 26 points in their last three games. The Giants were spenders this past offseason in order to upgrade their defense. It is paying dividends. The New York D should have little trouble slowing down the Browns.
The Giants have little-to-no running game, making them a little easier to defend. Giants QB Eli Manning has a talented receiving corps at his disposal, and they should find room to operate against this Browns secondary.
The Giants have played Under the total in all four of their games away from MetLife Stadium this season. In my opinion, only a late garbage-time TD puts this game Over. But a late interception is just as likely.
Oskeim Sports
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +4
Despite losing both wide receiver A.J. Green (hamstring) and running back Giovani Bernard (knee) to injuries in last week's loss to the Bills, Cincinnati still grades out as being a small favorite on a neutral field. After taking into account Baltimore's home field advantage (industry-standard is 2.5-points), the Ravens should not be favored by more than 1 point in this contest.
While the public has soured on the Bengals, who are a disappointing 3-6-1 SU and 2-7-1 ATS this season (but remain just one game back in the loss column of the division leaders), most amateur bettors are not aware of the fact that NFL road underdogs (Game Eleven) off back-to-back losses are a profitable 28-10 ATS versus division opponents, including 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS versus an opponent that was an underdog of 7+ points in its previous game.
Baltimore possesses one of the league's worse offenses, averaging just 5.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yards per play to a mediocre offense. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco is an unreliable 5-9 ATS versus the Bengals, while the Ravens are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
Finally, Baltimore's pass defense has struggled without cornerback Jimmy Smith, who has been out with a back injury. Indeed, in six quarters with Smith on the sidelines, opposing quarterbacks have produced a 126.9 passer rating against Baltimore's secondary. Teams have completed 75% of their pass attempts for five touchdowns and one interception.
This game provides an excellent 'buy low, sell high' opportunity so grab the Bengals plus the inflated number
Bryan Leonard
San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
Play: San Diego Chargers -1.5
Great scheduling spot here for the Chargers who are coming off a bye, while Houston returns on a short week after playing in Mexico City. The altitude adjustment is something to be concerned with as Mexico City is 2,000 feet higher than that of Denver. The Texans high scoring game this season has been 27 points which likely won't be nearly enough to keep up with these Chargers. San Diego has reached 30 or more in five games this season, being held to a season low of 19. This offense can be counted on in the clutch, the same cannot be said of the Texans. The line says it will be a close game, and we much prefer Rivers to Osweiler.
Joe Gavazzi
Jacksonville at Buffalo
Play: Buffalo -7.5
Jags are lucky that, at least at this writing, there is no winter storm scheduled for Buffalo this weekend. Again last week, the Jags put themselves in position to win, outgaining Detroit 285-277 and outrushing them 83-14, but in the end they fell 26-19 failing to cover by a point. They are now 1-4 SU on the road, with a victory at only the 2-8 SU Bears. The Bills vaunted ground game came through for us last week as the STEAMROLLER play, outrushing the Bengals 183-93 in a 16-12 road upset. At 5-5 SU, with a ground game that averages 30/158/5.3, they are capable of continuing that momentum on this home field against a Jacksonville team who has not proven capable of road success.
DAVE COKIN
BALL STATE AT VALPARAISO
PLAY: VALPARAISO -10
I was very impressed with the Crusaders in a win here in Las Vegas earlier this week against BYU. Valpo beat BYU at the Cougars pace and even though that game was on a neutral court, I would almost have called it a home/neutral for BYU as they have a big following in Las Vegas.
There’s a revenge motive here for Valpo and actually the circumstances are similar to last season. The Crusaders were heading back to Indiana after a two-game trip to face Oregon and Oregon State, and they got ambushed by the Cardinals.
Ball State has had some trouble in the early going. The Cardinals are losing the turnover battles by a substantial margin, and they simply aren’t going to stay with Valpo if the Crusaders get a handful of extra possessions. The home team doesn’t figure to take this for granted after last year’s result, and I think the Crusaders have too many weapons for this to stay close for 40 minutes. I’ll go ahead and give the points with Valparaiso.
Bruce Marshall
49ers / Dolphins Over 45.5
The 49ers are starting to take baby steps, forcing both the Cards and Patriots to sweat a bit the past two weeks. We've seen a few signs of the old, rollicking Colin Kaepernick lately. And the return of RB Carlos Hyde to active duty has added some spark to the infantry. But the 49er "D" too often looks like one of this year's soft Pac-12 stop units, letting another RB (this time N.E.'s LeGarrette Blount) run for 100+ yards last week. So Miami's Jay Ajayi is licking his chops. The Dolphins showed guts in comeback road wins at S.D. and L.A. and are very much in the AFC playoff mix with 5 straight wins. SF "over" 6-3 L9; Miami "over" 4-1 at home.