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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, November 27th, 2016

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Matt Josephs

49ers vs. Dolphins
Play: Over 44½

The 49ers hit the east coast to play the Dolphins on Sunday. San Francisco is allowing 31.3 points per game and 431 yards per contest. They have allowed 30 points or more in five of their last six games and are struggling to stop anyone. Miami's offense has found it's stride putting up 27 points or more in four of their last five. Jay Ajayi has been a revelation while Ryan Tannehill is doing enough for the offense to keep moving. SF's offense has shown flashes as of late although it's going to be hard to count on them. I'm thinking garbage time will help us out with this one. Miami has gone over in four of their five home games and all three contests as a favorite.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:42 am
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Bill Biles

Broncos/Chiefs Under 39

Both these teams have above average to great defenses and have offenses that struggle to score points. This will be a low scoring defensive battle. Both teams will come to play as this game min huge in the AFC west.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:42 am
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Ricky Tran

Kings -3½

Bounce Back: The Kings had a two-game winning streak snapped with a 117-104 home loss to Houston Friday night. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.

Reeling Nets: Brooklyn suffered its sixth consecutive loss in a 118-97 setback at a shorthanded Indiana team on Friday. The Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Sunday Game: The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games, the Kings 4-0 ATS in their last four.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:43 am
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Mike Lundin

Cavs vs. 76ers
Play: Cavs -12

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Wells Fargo Center, but they've more often than not been asked to cover a bigger spread than this. Their shooting from behind the arc has been flawless this season, downing 10 3-pointers or more in each of their 14 games. How can the 76ers counter that? The short and simple answer is; they can't.

The 76ers were on a bit of a roll but suffered a second straight defeat in a 105-89 home loss to the Bulls Friday night. Joel Embiid sat out as a planned off day, and while he'll be back here there's only that much he can do against this superior Cavaliers team.

Cleveland destroyed the Mavs 128-90 at home Friday night as Kevin Love went 8-of-12 from beyond the arc while LeBron James has a total of 50 points and 24 assists in the last two games. The Cavs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points, and I predict another blowout win here.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:43 am
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Scott Rickenbach

Giants vs. Browns
Play: Browns +7½

This is definitely a classic case of playing the "ugly dog" theory but I love the winless Browns at home in front of a bye week and ready to give it their all against a Giants team that could easily overlook this 0-11 Cleveland team. New York barely got by the 2-8 Bears last week and the Giants have Pittsburgh, Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia on deck. Three of those teams are division leaders and the other one, Eagles, certainly are still alive for a wild card spot. It will be hard for the Giants to maintain their focus here. New York's offense has not been impressive as they have been held to 351 yards or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Browns defense did hold Pittsburgh to 313 yards last week and the Giants, due to their scuffling offense, have only gone 1-3 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for New York to struggle to put away Cleveland in this one and I would not be surprised if the Browns finally get their first straight-up win in a shocker but certainly the play here is to grab the generous points being offered.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:44 am
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Jack Jones

Chargers vs. Texans
Play: Chargers -2½

I agree with this line move as the San Diego Chargers opened as underdogs and now they're 2.5-point favorites. I still believe they win this game by at least a field goal, and likely more given the situation.

The Chargers are rested and ready to go following their bye week. This will be their last-gasp effort to make a run at the playoffs, and it starts this week with the Texans. The Chargers are clearly better than their 4-6 record would indicate, but they have just come up short in so many close games.

The Houston Texans are in an awful spot here. They just played the Monday Night Football game last week in Mexico City against the Oakland Raiders. That game took a lot out of them because it was played at over 7,000 feet above sea level, which is higher than the altitude in Denver. That's a huge disadvantage for the Texans working on this short week, especially coupled with the fact that they have to face a team coming off a bye.

The Texans are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL and aren't as good as their 6-4 record. All six of their wins have come by single-digits, including five by a touchdown or less. They rank 21st in the NFL in yardage differential and have one of the worst offenses in the league at 313.3 yards per game.

The Chargers rank 10th in the NFL in yardage differential and are putting up 378.1 yards per game. San Diego is 27-4 ATS in its last 31 vs. AFC South division opponents. The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Texans.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:44 am
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Mike Anthony

Tennessee vs. Chicago
Play: Tennessee -6

I'll go into a hazy area & say Brian Orakpo is easily the best defensive player to play this game, his experience and attack ability easily show that. He cannot be stopped. The running game of the Titans will eat up yardage and clock all game long. Even when the matchup could be favorable, I don't have as much confidence in the Bears running game anymore. they have no push on the line or opening any lanes for their backs. Bears are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:45 am
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Harry Bondi

Giants / Browns Under 44

Thanks to a much-improved defense, the G-Men are in thick of the NFC East divisional chase and that, in turn, has made them a dead-nuts “under” team. After going 11-5 to the “over” last season, the Giants have gone under in seven of their 10 games this season, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. The winless Brownies have also cashed three-straight under tickets, averaging just 8.6 a game during that stretch. The team also tends to play low-scoring affairs against teams with a winning record, going under in 14 of their last 16 games in that situation.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:47 am
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David Banks

Chiefs @ Broncos
Pick: Over 38.5

It’s an AFC West showdown on Sunday night as Kansas City invades Denver. The Chiefs blew a shot at taking the division lead from Oakland when they dropped a 19-17 decision to Tampa Bay. Kansas City has some problems on the offensive side of the ball that need worked out. The offense has been unproductive, especially on third down something that cost them the game with Tampa Bay.

The Broncos had last week off to get ready for Sunday’s game. The extra week also helped Denver prepare for their final stretch run of the regular season which includes a Dec. 18 visit from New England and the season finale with division leader Oakland.

The key for Denver, of course, is their defense. The Broncos are one of the best in the business. Von Miller leads the charge with 9.5 sacks. Darian Stewart and Aqib Talib each have three interceptions. The Broncos will look to shut down Chiefs QB Alex Smith and company.

On the other side of the ball, the key for Denver will be running the football. Denver is just 24th in the NFL in rushing and doesn’t even average 100 yards per game. Leading rusher C.J. Anderson is out for the rest of the season leaving rookie Devontae Booker (396 yards) to pick up the slack. The Broncos are very tough to beat at Sports Authority Field in Denver.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 10:48 am
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Dennis Macklin

Seahawks -5

The Seahawks go as Russell Wilson goes and it looks like the former North Carolina State/Wisky product is almost 100% from his early season ankle problems. Seattle historically not a road monster but they've already beaten the Bills, Pats and Eagles with suitcase this year and face a Bucc team that is 1-6 ATS in their L7 homies (8-24 L32 as a home dog over many years) and have already given up 30 and 43 points in home losses to Atlanta and Oakland over the last month. Seattle 38-24.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 11:34 am
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Brandon Powell

Iowa State vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -4

Gonzaga looks like one of the best teams in the nation right now. Led by Washington Transfer Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga will once again compete for a 1 seed this season. Iowa State is a good team, but they never seem to play their best basketball away from Ames. Look for Gonzaga to cover this spread fairly easily.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 11:35 am
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Dave Price

49ers vs. Dolphins
Play: 49ers +7½

The Miami Dolphins are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now after winning 5 straight games coming in. But they won four of those games with a 100% healthy offensive line, and they struggled when they weren't healthy last week and needed to erase a 10-0 deficit late in the 4th quarter to beat the Rams 14-10. Now the Dolphins are even more banged up along the line as both C Mike Pouncey and T Branden Albert are expected to miss this game. Plus, first-round pick G Laremy Tunsil is questionable. This is the 49ers' best chance to end their losing streak, and even if they don't they should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread. Colin Kaepernick has improved as the season has gone on and played well the past two games against the Cardinals and Patriots. He should find some more success today against Miami. The Dolphins are 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. Miami is 14-42-1 ATS in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 11:35 am
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Ray Monohan

Patriots vs. Jets
Play: Jets +8

While it's always tough to go against Tom Brady and the Patriots, New England is kind of banged up here.

QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski are both game time decisions with injuries. While they're likely to play, it's still not telling how close to 100% both of these guys are. The offense will be a step or two slower here as they simply are banged up and don't want any further injuries.

As for the Jets, their defense has been solid at home. New York has given up 18.8 points against, which is one of the lowest in the league.

Some trends to note. Underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Grab the points here. With the health of the Patriots, there is just too many questions.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 11:36 am
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Chase Diamond

Seahawks vs. Bucs
Play: Bucs +5½

This afternoon game has the 7-2-1 Seahawks at the 5-5 Bucs. Tampa Bay is just 1 game behind first the first place Falcons who are playing no push over today so Tampa will be fighting hard and for me this game is tough for Seattle to get up for after a few big wins and with a rematch with the Panthers on deck I can see them looking past the Bucs enough to keep this game very tight. 79% of the public bets are behind the road Seahawks yet we are seeing some lines drop telling me the sharp cash is on the home Buccaneers.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 11:36 am
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Bob Balfe

Broncos -3.5

The Chiefs were finally exposed last week. This is a football team that has no receiving threats and will really struggle against a Denver Defense that is getting healthy again after the bye week. Kansas City is very limited on both sides of the ball right now. Denver should do enough to win this football game.

 
Posted : November 27, 2016 11:52 am
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