Stephen Nover
Patriots vs. Jets
Play: Over 46.5
Tom Brady has been back for six games. He has a 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and because of him the Patriots have averaged 31.6 points per game in their last six games. That would rank No. 2 in the NFL if it were computed over the entire season.
It's a plus if Rob Gronkowski is able to play this week. But even if he doesn't, Brady has more than enough weapons especially with Dion Lewis making his season debut last week. Lost in another brilliant Brady season is the great running of LeGarrette Blount. He's seventh in rushing and tied for the league lead in touchdowns.
The Jets' defense has slipped especially cornerback Darrelle Revis. New York is 21st in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points per game. It's a given that New England is going to get its share of points.
But can the Jets put up their share of points, too?
I say they can. New England's defense is mediocre at best. The Jets averaged 24.5 points against New England in their two meetings last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 295.5 yards passing against the Patriots with five touchdowns last year. The Jets have the advantage of being idle last week giving them extra time to game plan.
There should be no weather-related problems. The forecast is for a clear day with temperatures in the 40s and just a light wind.
Bruce Marshall
Buffalo -7.5
So much for Jaguar HC Gus Bradley throwing o.c. Greg Olson under the bus a few weeks ago, as Blake Bortles (2 more picks last week at Detroit; Jags now 21 giveaways) continues to make mistakes, and the infantry (3.1 ypc vs. the Lions) still sluggish. With 5 SU losses on the trot, not sure Gus survives much longer, as mustache-man owner Shad Khan reportedly is losing patience. More problems loom, as Rex Ryan's stout rush defense could render Jax one-dimensional again. Would prefer RB Shady McCoy to be 100%, but elusive QB Tyrod Taylor doing more than enough to keep the Bills in the playoff discussion.
River City Sharps
Oakland/Carolina Over 49
Carolina and Oakland square off with Oakland off a Monday night win in Mexico and the Panthers off a Thursday night win against the Saints. The Panthers will be rested but they are banged up and will definitely miss LB Keuchly as he is out with a concussion. Their defense has just been OK ranked 22nd giving up just over 24 a game but on the other side they are scoring over 24 a game. The Raiders have similar numbers ranking 5th scoring 27 a game and also giving up just over 24. Both offenses should be able to move the ball and this could be the team that has the ball last wins. The over is 8-2 in Oakland games this year and 5-5 for Carolina, but 3-1 with the Panthers on the road. We lean Oakland in the game but have this total north of 50 so will take the Over here.
Vegas Butcher
Atlanta Hawks -4
Howard against LA. Hawks in a prime 'bounce-back' spot after that awful performance on Friday. Lakers still dealing with some injuries to key players - Russell OUT / Randle very questionable.
Bob Valentino
You may not be sold on Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler, and quite frankly, neither am I. But what I do know he is he won twice last season against the Chargers when he played for the Denver Broncos.
His familiarity with San Diego will help him this week with his new team, and that's why my free play is on the Texans, who are looking to rebound after losing to the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City on Monday.
The Texans, who are 6-4 on the season, should improve to 6-0 at home today, while holding onto first place in the AFC South. The Chargers have lost two of three and are coming off their bye.
Yeah, it's tough to think a team in off a short week, can handle a recharged team off its bye, but I'm not a believer in the Bolts, and certainly am not a fan of San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers.
I'll take the Texans here, as they should win outright. Nevertheless, buy the half point up in this game, and take +3 or +3.5.
3* TEXANS
Brad Wilton
Well, you have to go back to 2011 for the last time the Titans were favored on the road by over 5 points, and you have to go back to 2013 for the last time Tennessee was actually favored in a road game. That will be the case today when the Titans hit Soldier Field for a date with the Bears.
I say you lay it with the Titans, as there are far too many negatives for Chicago to overcome in this one. Jay Cutler now out again, Alshon Jeffrey suspended, numerous offensive linemen injured, and a looming house-cleaning rumored in the off-season.
Negative, negative, negative all down the line for Da Bears. Tennessee is on the improve, and even though they have lost their last pair on the road, they are also averaging 31 points per game over their last 7 games, and Marcus Mariota definitely looks to be the Titans QB for years to come.
Tennessee will have a bye after this game, and the fact Chicago is just 4-11 against the spread their last 15 games, and just 3-9 against the spread at home their last dozen tells me that the oddsmakers know what they are doing installing the Titans as the road chalk for the first time in over 2 years.
Going to lay it with Tennessee.
2* TENNESSEE
Brett Atkins
The Falcons went to their bye-week seeing their string of 4 straight Overs halted when they settled for field goals instead of touchdowns in their 24-15 loss at Philadelphia on the 13th.
I expect Atlanta to get back to their high-scoring ways - well, at least high-scoring enough to combine on an Over with the visiting Arizona Cardinals this Sunday afternoon.
The Falcons are stil 8-2 Over the total for the year, and catch the Cardinals having played 2 of their last 3 games Over the posted price. Arizona is also 4-0 Over the total away from Glendale this year.
With Carson Palmer being wildly inconsistent - 13 touchdown passes, but 11 interceptions - look for the turnover to come into play in this game, and for their to be enough scoring chances both ways for this "Bird Battle" to play Over inside of the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon.
4* ARIZONA-ATLANTA OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Sunday is on the San Francisco 49ers, heading into South Beach for a date with the Miami Dolphins.
Though I have come to despise kneeling-for-our-anthem, non-voting, Castro-praising Colin Kaepernick, on the field I might as well use him to make money, the same way he is using his millionaire platform to bloviate.
As the 49ers hope to avoid their 10th consecutive defeat, which would be the longest losing streak in franchise history, I think Kaepernick will come out slinging in hopes to end a five-start skid this season. This is a guy who has been to the Super Bowl once, started his career 18-6 and has gone 9-19 since and still show signs of competitiveness.
Miami, arguably, should have lost last week. But the Dolphins have won their past three games thanks to late touchdowns in successive weeks by special teams, defense and offense. They're far from an offensive juggernaut, and I don't think they should be laying this much to anyone - not even the Cleveland Browns.
The Dolphins failed to convert their first 10 third-down tries last week, and are at 33 percent for season, which is tied for worst in the league. That offense ranks 26th in the league.
On the flipside, San Francisco ranks fifth with its rushing offense, and could very well control the tempo with its running backs today. If they can limit Miami's touches, you may even see an outright win.
Let's take the 49ers today, set aside the disdain for Kaepernick's jaded issues and societal points of view, and look for a potential outright win.
2* 49ERS
Matt Fargo
Carolina vs. Oakland
Play: Carolina +3.5
Oakland pulled off yet another late win last week as it scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to defeat Houston in Mexico City on Monday. Now the Raiders have to prepare on short rest against a team many think is done but because of the weakness of the division, Carolina is still very much alive in the playoff picture. Oakland leads the AFC West by a game over Kansas City and Denver and while this is a big game for them also, playing at home has not been a huge advantage where they are just 2-2 on the season. The Panthers escaped last Thursday against New Orleans as they had a comfortable 23-3 lead going into the fourth quarter against the Saints but allowed 17 points in the final frame to win by just three points. The good news is that they have had some extra time off and while it may seem hard to believe, this is the first time all season they are an underdog. This is actually the first time since Week Nine of last season they are getting points. We have a favorable situation going against Oakland as we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons.
Will Rogers
Clippers vs.Pacers
Pick: Clippers
The set-up: The Warriors have won 11 straight and at 15-2, have now surpassed the 14-3 LA Clippers for the NBA’s best record. The Clippers dropped their last game 108-97 in Detroit, for their first road loss of the season. Los Angeles will make its only visit to Indianapolis on Sunday night to take on the 8-9 Indiana Pacers, who will be without Paul George, who is battling ankle and back injuries.
LA Clippers: The Clippers had set the pace in the NBA in terms of scoring defense with an average of 88.3 PPG allowed through their first eight games but have watched that number grow to 106.2 PPG allowed over the last nine contests. Shooting guard J.J. Redick was one of the few on the team that did not get off to a hot start this season but is making up for lost time of late, as he 24 points on Friday to reach 20 or more for the fourth time in the last six contests. Redick is up to 15.6 PPG on the season, third behind All Stars Griffin (21.4-8.7-4.5) and Paul (17.8-4.9-8.9).
Indiana: With injuries to Paul George (21.4-8.7-4.5) and C.J. Miles (13.0), who has missed the last four games and is not expected to play on Sunday, the Pacers have turned to Glenn Robison III and responded with a career-high 20 points against the Nets in Friday’s 118-97 win. Robinson began to earn more playing time with star Paul George hobbled by ankle and back injuries and is embracing the opportunity. Robinson will likely be in the starting lineup again on Sunday with George expected to remain sidelined
The pick: The Pacers were able to dominate the Nets on Friday night without George and Miles but the Clippers present a completely different challenge. The Clippers are averaging 110.1 PPG (third best in the NBA), while the Pacers are giving up the sixth most points in the league 107.2 per. The Pacers are 7-4 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse but three of those four losses have come without Paul George in the lineup. add another los here.
The Real Animal
Tampa Bay +5.5
Granted Seattle has momentum coming off New England and Philly wins, but I don’t like this spot. A cross-country travel and the defense playing without Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett. Plus this is a sandwich game with Carolina facing the Seahawks next week. At 5-5 this is Tampa’s best shot at a playoff spot considering they play the Saints twice still and 4-6 San Diego is next. Tampa has struggled at home this year at 1-4 SU and ATS but by now you know my philosophy. Road success like at Kansas City last week historically is followed up by home success in the NFL. Good news for the Bucs w/ corner Brent Grimes upgraded to probable. Tampa actually in very good condition health-wise. Russell Wilson is healthy and mobile now but historically he and Seattle can’t be trusted on the road. With Wilson at the controls, the Seahawks are 13-14 ATS as a road favorite. Plus the Tampa defense has played much better in recent weeks limiting the Chiefs and Bears to a total of 27 points. This looks like a flat spot for the Hawks after two huge wins and with Thanksgiving week and a long travel. I like the points. Tampa has athletes all over the field and if they can limit turnovers like they did at KC last week they should be competitive throughout and I will not rule out the potential upset here.
OC Dooley
Texans +3
Regular clients are aware that I had a Best Bet "against" Houston back on Monday Night in a high altitude location and as expected the Texans folded in the 4th and final quarter. However today's game is back at HOME where they have gone 5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS which heightens the odds of success especially since visiting San Diego ranks dead-LAST in the league in the "second half" allowing the opposition to average more than 17 points per pop. At most offshore locations Houston actually opened as a slight one-point favorite and we have seen a dramatic FOUR point swing in the line for which I am reacting