Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, November 5th, 2017

Robert Ferringo

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Play: Over 50

I am being stubborn. I missed badly on the 'over' with Tampa Bay last week, but I think that at some point their offense is going to wake up. They are No. 4 in the league in total offense but just No. 18 in scoring and last week they posted an OYPP over 90.0. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is wretched, and these guys can't stop anyone. New Orleans' offense can erupt at any time, and they are No. 2 in the league in total yards. After scoring just 20 points against an outstanding Bears defense they should find the sledding a lot easier this week against the Bucs. Also, the Saints offense is getting a lot of credit. And they have been leaps and bounds better this season. But they are still pretty vulnerable (No. 20 overall). They've faced some pretty bad quarterbacks and offenses recently, and I think that whomever is under center for the Bucs will find some throwing lanes on Sunday. I can't see a scenario where both teams don't get to 20 points in this game, and someone is getting to 30.

Spartan

Rams vs. Giants
Play: Rams -3.5

I am going back to another west coast team playing a early kick off on the east coast. I am going with the Rams laying 3.5 to the Giants. I would generally look real hard at the home dog but I have such little faith in this current Giants team I simply cannot do it. The Rams are the better team and might be the turn around team of the year. Jared Goff had a lot of people declaring him a bust and I admit to having my own doubts after last year when he so often had that deer in the headlights look. But Rams first year coach Sean McVay has obviously done a stellar job coaching the 23 year old QB up. I've always wondered what kind of season Todd Gurley could put together with a healthy shot and a decent, balanced offense working in his favor. Well, we are seeing it. Gurley is having an all pro caliber season and I am glad to see it. I've liked Gurley since his days at Georgia. The Rams were notorious in St Louis for butchering drafts but they rang the bell when they picked up Gurley. The Rams offense has had a complete turnaround after the dumpster fire they were under Jeff Fisher and his staff. Hard to believe but they are actually legitimately one of the better units in the league this season thus far. The Giants are having a disaster of a season but at home off a bye they could rise up here and provide a stiff test for the young Rams. And frankly I do expect it. What I envision here is the Rams pulling away in the second half. I love home dogs but my confidence in Manning and company without Beckham on the field just won't let me pull the trigger. The Giants highlight this season, well, their only victory at all was the game at Denver. But as we have all seen of late the shine is off that win with the Broncos being the mess they have been. Kind of strange a team with John Elway at the helm in the front office suddenly cannot get it right at quarterback. Bottom line here is I will take the better team laying the reasonable number. I would rather obviously lay 3 than the hook with it but I doubt this gets bet down. I think the Rams -3.5 is still a solid play.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Bengals (3-4) at Jaguars (4-3)

We’re not all giddy about placing the Bengals among our top selections, but Cincinnati kept bobbing to the surface. Anytime you see the Jaguars favoured by more than a field goal, a ‘buy’ light goes on. Same situation has occurred just once this year when Jacksonville was a four-point choice over the Jets. Jaguars lost that game 23-20. This is an inflated line due to Jacksonville crushing the Colts 27-0 before its break while Cincy struggled to defeat same Indianapolis club 24-23 last Sunday. Strategizing that way will usually prove costly. The Jaguars have an awful offensive line and an inadequate quarterback. Cincy’s pass rushing duo of Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins figure to be spending plenty of time in Jacksonville’s backfield, particularly in QB Blake Bortles’ grill. Total here is set at 39½. That indicates a low-scorer, aiding the underdog. Cincy having their struggles but at least they have a big time receiver. Jacksonville has a hurting running back and little else on offence. Just take the points. TAKING: BENGALS +4½

Rams (5-2) at Giants (1-6)

The Giants are deadsville. An OK defence can’t make up for a largely undermanned offence. With a porous ground game over the past couple of years, the G-Men’s strategy was to go airborne. That can’t happen now with New York’s two best receivers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall, in the infirmary for rest of this campaign. A long second half of the season is in store for this 1-6 team. Conversely, the Rams aren’t accustomed to be battling for the NFC West crown, but an impressive 5-2 starts has them tied with the Seahawks atop their division and a rested Los Angeles team is eager to get back to the field after its bye. The Rams had won four of five before their vacation week. Each of these two clubs has played seven games. The Rams have tallied 212 points while the Giants are exactly 100 less at 112 for the year. There is no magic here. The Giants don’t have the personnel nor the motivation to keep pace in this one. TAKING: RAMS –3½

Raiders (3-4) at Dolphins (4-3)

We have no idea how the Fish are an above .500 club. Have you seen them play? Three of their games this year have produced a zero, a zero and a six. QB Jay Cutler returns to the field. While Cutler remains an enigma, he is 100 times better than Matt Moore and he at least gives his team a chance. All that said, Oakland’s only win in its past six games was on a controversial final play of game against Kansas City with the tired Chiefs visiting on a Thursday night after a physical win over the Steelers four days earlier. That win also was the only time that Oakland exceeded 17 points during the 1-5 run. Miami has had 10-days to watch film of their embarrassing 40-0 blowout to Baltimore while the Raiders are on east coast again after losing in Buffalo last week. Raiders 0-3 ATS past three away, scoring 10, 10, and 14 respectively. Too many negatives to have visitor spotting points. TAKING: DOLPHINS +3

THE REST

Broncos (3-4) at Eagles (7-1)

Halloween has passed but Denver’s current situation remains scary. The Broncos playing are their third consecutive road game in as many weeks. Not only will they have to head to Philadelphia to face the team with the league’s best record, they are forced to do so on a short week following a Monday night affair against arch-enemy Chiefs. Denver gets to return to Mile High next week only to host rival Patriots. Talk about a brutal schedule. We’re not sure what happened to QB Trevor Siemian after his team’s bye, but the Broncos have managed just 29 points combined in three weeks since returning. Siemian suddenly has that Brock Osweiler-like gaze. It’s not a good thing. The QB has just two touchdown tosses during this slide while appearing to be completely out of sync with his receivers. Philadelphia keeps mowing down opponents. It is undefeated on this field this season while Denver has not covered a road game in five straight. TAKING: EAGLES –8

Buccaneers (2-5) at Saints (5-2)

The Beatles once asked, “Will you walk away from a fool and his money?” Bookmakers are usually not the unwise ones, so they will gladly accept fool’s money on the Bucs, now a league worst 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. So why would we go Bucs? Simply because we still aren’t sure if Saints are worthy of this price against a division mate that they were supposed to be at least equal with. New Orleans was brutal to start the year, losing handily to Minnesota and New England. Suddenly, Sean Payton’s team solved its 2½-year monumental defensive woes? Yes, the Saints have won five straight, but past four were against Mitchell Trubisky, Brett Hundley, a hurting Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler. Tampa isn’t flush at the QB position, either, but this is a desperation game for the Bucs and there is a lot of room for a cover. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +7

Falcons (4-3) at Panthers (5-3)

Can you trust either team? Probably not. OK, who do you trust least? We’re going to tag the Falcons with that dubious distinction. Atlanta living off their laurels from last year’s Super Bowl appearance but team is a far cry from that group with a sputtering offence averaging just 16.5 points per game over past four. Dirty Birds very fortunate to be sitting a game above .500 as they were a dropped pass from losing at Chicago, blew a home game to Miami and had to work to the end to take down the Jets last week. Tough to read Panthers as they are as erratic as a four-year old on a Halloween sugar high, but they return home after playing four of past five on the road while the one home game was a Thursday vs. the tough Eagles. Price is right for Carolina to avenge pair of losses from a year ago while also separating from Falcs in competitive NFC South. TAKING: PANTHERS –1

Redskins (3-4) at Seahawks (5-2)

Not an easy time for the Redskins as they were competing in the tough NFC East before dropping a pair to Philly and Dallas, respectively. Not only did they plummet in the division standings but the casualties were plenty, particularly on the offensive line. Right tackle Morgan Moses was the only starter that practised on Wednesday as other four first-stringers sat out. Washington may have to go with its third different offensive line combination in three weeks. Last week saw the Cowboys get to QB Kirk Cousins for four sacks and nine hits. The Redskins gained only 49 yards on the ground. Now the battered ‘Skins will fly across the country to face a soaring Seattle team that has suddenly found a previously absent offence. Allowing an average of 30 points per game during October, Washington now 0-4 ATS in its past four and this one could be the most challenging. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –7

Chiefs (6-2) at Cowboys (4-3)

The Cowboys are finding their swagger after a pair of road wins while the Chiefs broke a two-game slide, but didn’t appear sharp offensively. Alex Smith completed just 14-of-31 attempts for 202 yards last week with one touchdown and was shaky most of the night. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt gained only 46 yards on 22 attempts. Granted, it was against a stellar Denver defence, but still need to see the Chiefs in better form before we’ll make them a road favourite here. Of concern on the Dallas side is the status of Ezekiel Elliott. If he’s a no go, this line may hit K.C. -3, but we would still back the ‘Boys with Alfred Morris carrying the rock behind a decent offensive line. Kansas City also travelling on short week after consecutive games against division mates. Dallas’ four victories were against teams that are currently 7-22 combined, but they can raise their profile with a win here and that’s the way we’ll lean. TAKING: COWBOYS +1

Lions (3-4) at Packers (4-3)

Brett Hundley’s apprenticeship is complete as he is now the starter for the Packers. It’s a huge drop in both talent and experience from Aaron Rodgers and Hundley’s first appearance was not exactly something to store on video. However, coaches have had two weeks to work on weaknesses now that the youngster has played a full game as starter and we’re thinking that things have to get better. If things don’t go well offensively, Green Bay is more than capable of stopping a struggling Detroit team that has now lost four of previous five. Lions play in the red zone last week was simply atrocious as Leos should have taken down the Steelers if not for incompetent play-calling and execution when in scoring position. Obviously, this point-spread is reflective of the Rodgers injury, but a team that has one win at Lambeau in its past 26 visits will have a hard time winning and covering as a favourite here. TAKING: PACKERS +2½

Cardinals (3-4) at 49ers (0-8)

Just like it’s difficult to 16-0 in the NFL, it’s almost as tough to go 0-16. Looking at San Francisco’s schedule the rest of the way, this might be its best chance at victory. The Cardinals will send out Drew Stanton to replace the injured Carson Palmer. Palmer blindfolded would be more effective than Stanton. The definitive clipboard holder, Stanton has thrown two touchdown passes in the past 2½ years to go along with six interceptions, 362 yards passing on 83 attempts and a 42% completion rate. This choice could have been in our upper tier if not for a myriad of injuries on the 49ers’ side, along with a rookie QB earning just his third career start. San Fran is missing a couple of tackles and WR Pierre Garcon did not practice midweek and may sit. The Cardinals are money guzzlers with just four covers in past 17 games played. They hardly deserve our endorsement here. TAKING: 49ERS +2½

Dr Bob

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants

Lean – NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) over Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had the league’s best passing offense in my metrics after the first four weeks, but Jared Goff has cooled off from his hot start, as LA ranks 22nd in pass offense the last 4 weeks. Some of that decline can be explained by facing better defensive teams in those 3 games – the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Cardinals – and Goff could continue to struggle against a Giants’ pass defense that ranks 14th according to my numbers despite already facing three top-10 pass offenses. The Giants will be without cornerback Janoris Jenkins on Sunday but that may not be a significant loss given that Jenkins have allowed 7.5 yards per target (right at the league average for cornerbacks) while the other corners have allowed a combined 7.2 ypt and the 4th and 5th corners (the ones likely to get extra time) have yielded a not so bad 7.7 ypt.

Los Angeles is converting 3rd downs at an unsustainable 49% rate, which is higher than any team in the last 5 seasons, and I expect them to convert less 3rd downs as the season progresses – which will lower their number of points going forward.

In New York’s first game without their top two receivers, an upset win at Denver, their offense went for 4.6 yards per rush against one of the best run stopping defenses in the league, but then followed it up gaining just 2.7 yards per rush in Seattle before their bye week. The Giants offense will need to utilize their ground game more with the lack of proven talent at the wide receiver position and the Rams, who rank against a 30th in my metrics in run defense, present a good match-up.

New York has been the biggest disappointment in the league at 1-6, but there is still plenty of talent on this team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and the bye week should help to reenergize and refocus the Giants. Teams that enter their bye week off a loss and with a win percentage of .250 or lower are 31-13-1 ATS after their bye if they were a .500 or better the previous season (2-0 if the other team is also off a bye and 23-5-1 ATS against a non-division opponent) and I expect a really good effort from the Giants today. My model also likes New York in this spot and I’ll lean with New York at +3 points or more.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This matchup features two of the best defenses in the league with both Jacksonville and Cincinnati ranking top 3 in yards per play allowed. The Jaguars have the NFL’s best pass defense according to my numbers thanks to their two excellent cornerbacks, Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. Jacksonville is holding opposing wide receivers to just 5.8 yards per target, best in the NFL, and 3rd corner Aaron Colvin has been just as effective shutting down slot receivers (just 5.8 YPT allowed). Meanwhile, the Bengals also have a great cornerback in William Jackson. The past two weeks Jackson has held opponents to 3 receiving yards on 7 targets and he’s allowed just 5.3 YPT this season.

Excellent pass defense means we’ll likely see the ground game featured by both offenses. The Jaguars run more than any other team and lead the league in yards per rush (5.0), so facing a good pass defense doesn’t hurt them as much as most teams. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ horrible run game (just 3.2 ypr) should have some success against Jacksonville’s last-ranked rush defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per attempt. This game will likely be won by whichever team can control the line of scrimmage and the team that gets behind by more than 7 points will likely have a tough time catching up trying to throw the ball. I see no value in this game.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Atlanta’s top 5 offense will square off against Carolina’s top 5 defense on Sunday. The Falcons offense is gaining 6.2 yppl (2nd) and, while Matt Ryan has dropped off a bit from his career year last season, they actually have a better rushing attack this year – averaging 4.8 yards per rush (4th) compared to last year’s 4.5 yards per rush. However, it could be difficult this week against a Panthers rush defense ranked third in my metrics. This will be the 4th top-5 ranked offense, based on yards per play,that Carolina’s defense has faced this season. The Panthers allowed the Saints 6.4 yppl, but held the Patriots and Buccaneers to 5.6 and 4.4 yppl respectively.

On the other side of the ball, Carolina’s offense will go against an Atlanta defense that has benefitted from an easy schedule. The Falcons are holding opponents to 5.0 yppl but have only faced one above average offense so far (New England) and actually rate a bit below average in compensated yppl. Atlanta will face another bad offensive team today, as Carolina is 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively and has been getting worse – averaging just 4.0 yppl in their last 3 games.

Atlanta applies to a negative 46-113-7 ATS situation today but our model favors the Falcons by 2 points in this game. I’d lean with Carolina if the Panthers became an underdog but otherwise I have no opinion.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

It looks like Joe Flacco will return after a brutal hit that caused a concussion last week and I expect him to play well if he’s healthy. The Ravens offense is underrated because they’ve played 6 of their 8 games against defenses ranked top 10 in yppl allowed. Flacco threw for 7.9 yppp in the game and a half he played against the Raiders and Dolphins, the only defenses he’s faced outside of the top 10.

The Titans will need to utilize the ground game because Baltimore’s pass defense is surrendering just 5.4 yppp (6th). Tennessee is averaging 4.4 yards per rush (6th) and as Marcus Mariota’s hamstring heals, I expect the Titans running game to be dangerous moving forward.

Titans’ rookie wide receiver Corey Davis, the 5th overall pick in this year’s draft, will return after being sidelined since week 2. Mariota targeted Davis 13 times in the first 5 quarters of the season before his injury, so he figures to be a big part of the pass attack going forward if healthy. I have no opinion on this game.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+2) over Arizona

The 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but it will be the Cardinals with a new man under center on Sunday. My quarterback model projects Drew Stanton to be about 3.5 points worse per game than Carson Palmer and he certainly didn’t look good in limited action last week gaining just 3.8 yppp. Arizona’s passing offense ranks 23rd in my metrics this season and should be even worse sith Stanton pulling the trigger.

This may be CJ Beathard’s last chance as he certainly hasn’t played well to this point. Beathard is gaining 4.6 yppp and the Niners have never taken a lead with him under center. Last season, Garoppolo threw for 7.4 yppp and it’s only a matter of time before he grasps enough of Kyle Shanahan’s offense to take over.

Beathard is certainly worse than Hoyer was but Arizona’s decline in quarterback production over their season numbers is more drastic. Our model gives San Francisco a good chance to get their first win of the season and I’ll lean with the Niners as long as they’re an underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott is now expected to play this week and he is likely to run at well against a a Chiefs’ defense that has the league’s worst rush defense since Eric Berry’s injury in week 1.

I also expect Kansas City’s ground game to be successful. The Chiefs gain 4.9 yards per rush (3rd) and they’ll face a Dallas defense ranked 30th against the run according to metrics. Kansas City combined for 7.2 yards per rush against the other two rush defenses they’ve faced ranked in the bottom-5, the Patriots and Chargers. This game certainly has potential to be one of the top combined rushing yards games of the season.

I see no value here, as my two sets of ratings average to Dallas by 1 point with Elliott playing.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Lean Over 44

Miami head coach Adam Gase was not wrong calling his team ‘the worst offense in football’. The Dolphins have gained just 4.1 yppl, worse than any team in the last 5 seasons, and just traded starting running back, Jay Ajayi. However, there’s reason to be optimistic about Jay Cutler’s return on Sunday night. Oakland’s pass defense ranks 31st in my numbers, which will be by far the best matchup for Miami this season as they have not faced any bottom-10 pass defenses thus far. One of Cutler’s favorite targets, DeVante Parker, is set to return on Sunday after missing nearly 4 full games and Parker’s 8.4 yards per target is easily the best on the team. I expect Cutler’s numbers to improve the rest of the season.

Oakland’s offense ranks just above average after filtering out EJ Manuel’s snaps and I expect the Raiders to have modest success against a mediocre Miami defense. The Dolphins are due for some 3rd down regression on both sides of the ball. The offense is converting less than 30%, worse than any team last season, and I expect them to convert more 3rd downs moving forward. Miami’s defense, meanwhile, is holding opponents to a 33% 3rd down conversion rate, which is better than any team last season. I expect the Dolphins to allow more conversions as the season progresses as well and converting more 3rd downs while also allowing more 3rd down conversions should lead to higher scoring games. My model likes Miami in this spot and I’ll also lean over the total at 44 ½ points or less. I think this line will get to +3.5, so you might want to wait if you are bold enough to bet on the Dolphins.

Wunderdog

Baltimore @ Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Titans are an improved team, and at 4-3 they are certainly a team that has playoff aspirations. They are the healthiest team in the NFL right now with no players listed on the injury report. QB Marcus Mariota is much healthier after injuring his hamstring, and he should start using his legs as well as his arm going forward. The Titans offense will improve with his run dimension back, but under the radar is the return of the Titan's first round draft pick WR Corey Davis. Davis went down with an injury early in Week 2, but was targeted by Mariota 13 times prior to the injury. Baltimore is suffering from myriad of injuries, including Joe Flacco, who just got out of concussion protocol. Flacco has diminished as a QB over the past few seasons, and the numbers this year are not very appealing as he enters with a passer rating of 72.3 and has thrown more picks (eight), than TDs (six). His 5.4 yards per attempt are extremely low, and the worst of his career, and his career 68.4 passer rating vs. Tennessee does not bode well here either. Make the play on Tennessee.

Ben Burns

Chiefs vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -2½

If this is Ezekiel Elliott’s last game for a while as he runs out of legal options and heads for a 6-game suspension, the Cowboy RB has found a soft opponent. The 6-2 Chiefs are 28th in the NFL against the run and are trying to regain their balance after a 4-0 start. Dallas, meanwhile, figures to feed Elliott early and often, and if he has some early success and forces KC to make some adjustments, then the pass game should open up. The Chiefs should have all sorts of problems with the Cowboys, who desperately need – and will win -- this game at home to remain in the thick of the playoff race and retain any hope of catching the Eagles in the NFC East.

Scott Spreitzer

Baltimore at Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -3.5

Baltimore looked great last week when they rocked the Dolphins on Thursday night football. Joe Flacco sustained a concussion during the game, but is expected to play this week. The problem is his lingering back pain along with an injury list that that reads like a Tolstoy novel. Baltimore has suffered one injury after another since the summer and Flacco ranks 28th in QBR. We also like the fact Tennessee will finally get WR Corey Davis on the field for the first time since September. Davis will obviously help the passing game, which just got a little tougher to defend, and will also potentially create a few more gaps for the ground game to exploit. Baltimore is simply too one dimensional for us, ranked 32nd in yards passing per game on offense and 30th in yards rushing allowed on defense. And while Baltimore has covered just three of their last 11 road games, Tennessee enters on a 6-1 ATS run at home.

John Martin

Bengals vs. Jaguars
Play: Bengals +6

The Jaguars opened as 2-point favorites this week and have been bet all the way up to -6 now. I think the value side is now the Bengals. The Jaguars have alternated wins and losses all season. They seem to do well in the underdog role, but not in the favorite role. They haven't won two games in a row yet, and there's a good chance they won't start this week. They still have a limited offense with Blake Bortles at quarterback, and suspect weapons at receiver. The Bengals want to get their ground game going with Joe Mixon, and should be able to against a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in the NFL against the run, giving up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. The Bengals have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 19.3 points per game, 295 yards per game and 4.8 per play. Their defense and running game should keep them close for four quarters. The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, while the Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Mike Lundin

Bucs vs. Saints
Play: Bucs +7

The 5-2 New Orleans Saints have reeled off five consecutive wins while the 2-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost four straight. Top vs. bottom of the NFC East, but this looks like a prime spot to take the points on Tampa Bay in this divisional matchup IMO.

Note that Tampa Bay has kept things reasonably close in most games during its losing streak, losing by five to New England and Arizona and by three against Buffalo. The Buccaneers did hit a new low last week when they took a 17-3 loss against Carolina, but they're 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

The Saints D has not really been put to the test over the last two weeks with wins against Green Bay (who was without Aaron Rodgers) and Chicago (29th in total offense). Tampa Bay meanwhile held Cam Newton to only 154 passing yards last week, and I would not be surprised to see the Buccaneers explode on the offensive side of the ball here after failing to record a touchdown against the Panthers.

Art Aronson

Los Angeles at New York
Play: Under 43½

Both teams come out of their bye. The Rams most recently throttled the Cardinals 33-0, while the Giants were last destroyed 24-7 at the hands of the Seahawks. Note that when these teams played last year, it was New York that scored the low-scoring 17-10 victory. Rams’ QB Jared Goff was 22 of 37 for 235 yards, one TD and one INT in that one, while RB Todd Gurley posted 106 rushing yards on 22 carries. The Rams looked phenomenal on defense, holding Arizona to 196 total yards, including making two INT’s. And that doesn’t bode well for Eli Manning and the one-dimensional Giants’ offense which is without many key pieces, including star WR’s Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall. New York’s defense looked terrible last week, but for the most part the unit has been a strength of the team this year. Note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 15 as a favorite, while New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 16 against clubs with winning records. The only way Manning will have any room to operate this afternoon is if the Giants’ run game is established. With each side putting added emphasis on the rush attack while on offense, we’re going to recommend a second look at the UNDER in this one.

Jimmy Boyd

Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Under 44

I'm expecting a defensive battle on Sunday when NFC South rivals Carolina and Atlanta face off. For starters, it's a series that has been very low scoring in recent meetings, as the UNDER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 matchups and 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings in Carolina.

This Panthers defense doesn't get near the love they should, as they are absolutely tormenting opposing offenses this season. Carolina ranks 4th in scoring defense, giving up just 17.8 ypg and the 264 ypg is 2nd behind only the Broncos (261 ypg) and well ahead of 3rd place Minnesota (282.1 ypg). With this game in Carolina and the Falcons offense not looking the same as last year, I think they hold Matt Ryan and that Falcons offense in check.

While the offense is struggling to put up points, the Atlanta defense continues to play well. They rank inside the top half of the league in both total defense and scoring defense. As disappointing as the Falcons offense has been, Carolina's offense has been even worse. The Panthers are 23rd in scoring at just 18.7 ppg and rank in the bottom half in both rushing and passing.

UNDER is 28-13 in the Falcons last 41 road games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after 4 straight games where they failed to cover the spread. UNDER is also 24-7 in Carolina's last 31 off a road win against a division rival, as they took down the Bucs 17-3 in Tampa last Sunday.

Teddy Covers

Ravens vs. Titans
Play: Titans -3½

Teddy is riding a SCORCHING HOT 83% NFL Run over the last three weeks. He came a single point away from another PERFECT SWEEP last Sunday; cashing at a 66% clip in the NFL since Week 1! Don't miss any of Teddy's Top Rated winners this weekend, including his One & Only NFL GOY on Monday Night.

The betting markets didn’t pay much attention when Will Fuller was activated for the Houston Texans heading into Week 4. The 1-2 Texans had already made the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB, but they were still averaging less than 18 points per game. With their deep threat back in the lineup, the entire offense started to click, and Houston proceeded to score 57, 34, 33 and 38 in their next four ballgames. Fuller wasn’t (and isn’t) the focal point of the offense – he’s only caught 13 passes in the four games since his return. But his ability to stretch the field forces opposing defenses to respect his playmaking ability, opening up the running game and the shorter routes for other receivers to take advantage of.

What does any of this have to do with the Titans – Ravens game? Simple – Corey Davis is expected back in the lineup for the Titans this week! Tennessee’s #1 draft choice (the #5 overall pick) got hurt in Week 2 and hasn’t played since. I don’t expect Davis to catch eight balls for 150 yards here, but I do expect the Titans to test Baltimore deep, early and often.

Titans WR Rishard Matthews, talking about how having Davis in the lineup will affect their offense: “A ton. That’s his job, is to come in here and be a playmaker. That’s what we all expect him to be. That’s what I expect him to come here and do right away. We got a little piece of it in the beginning of the year. He’s back and ready to go, so expecting big things.” Davis’s own quote: “This is the turnaround right here. I feel it.”

Make no mistake about it – this Titans team has underachieved so far, in large part due to their red zone failures on offense, ranked #31 in the NFL in red zone TD percentage after their field goal fest against the Browns prior to their bye week. The addition of Davis back into the lineup can only help in that regard, especially since it should open things up for beefy backs Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry between the tackles.

The markets have moved towards Baltimore all week with the expectation that Joe Flacco will be cleared from his concussion protocol and suit up as the Ravens starting QB this week. But Flacco ranks #31 in QB rating this year – ahead of only Deshone Kizer – and #28 in QBR. The numbers clearly show that Baltimore’s passing game is rather inept, whether Flacco plays or not; bad news for a team with a dismal running game and an ineffective, injury riddled offensive line. Coming off a 40-0 blowout over Miami last Thursday, expect the Ravens to come back down to earth in a hurry on Sunday.

Doug Upstone

Cardinals vs. 49ers
Play: Under 39½

The San Francisco 49ers are 31st in points allowed, so why would I think they are UNDER material? When teams like the Niners are surrendering 27 or more points a game, after allowing 25 points or more in four straight contests, they are 32-8 UNDER! (That's 80%)

Ben Burns

Chiefs vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -2

If this is Ezekiel Elliott’s last game for a while as he runs out of legal options and heads for a 6-game suspension, the Cowboy RB has found a soft opponent. The 6-2 Chiefs are 28th in the NFL against the run and are trying to regain their balance after a 4-0 start. Dallas, meanwhile, figures to feed Elliott early and often, and if he has some early success and forces KC to make some adjustments, then the pass game should open up. The Chiefs should have all sorts of problems with the Cowboys, who desperately need – and will win -- this game at home to remain in the thick of the playoff race and retain any hope of catching the Eagles in the NFC East.