Jack Jones
Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Falcons -2
Everyone keeps bashing the Atlanta Falcons and Steve Sarkisian. I think it has them flying under the radar. I cashed in a big play on the Falcons -4 over the Jets last week, and I like them quite a bit again this week as only 2-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers. They just barely missed my premium card, but are free play worthy Sunday.
The fact of the matter is that the Falcons have been nearly as dominant statistically as they were last year, it just hasn't shown up in the win column. Yards per play is one of the most important stats in the NFL, and the Falcons lead the NFL in yards per play differential once again in 2017 just as they did in 2016. They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.0 yards per play on defense. They are 5th in total offense and 11th in total defense. They have been very good.
Compare that to the Panthers, who rank 21st in total offense and 25th in yards per play on offense, and it's clear which one of these teams has by far the better offense. And the Panthers just traded away their best red zone weapon in Kelvin Benjamin. They were already without Greg Olsen, so they will be severely limited at receiver. Their top two receivers now will be career blocking TE Ed Dickson and the unproven Devin Funchess.
Not to mention, the Panthers have been really struggling to run the football this year. They are only averaging 98 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry. Cam Newton has actually led the team in rushing for three consecutive games. Christian McCaffrey hasn't been able to find success on the ground at all, and Jonathan Stewart has been banged up. The Panthers are simply severely limited on offense right now. They only managed 3 points against the Bears two weeks ago, and 17 against the Bucs last week.
Carolina's defense has been good, but their schedule of opposing offenses has been very weak. They managed to shut down the likes of the 49ers, Bills, Bears and Bucs. But we saw the better offenses like the Saints score 34, the Patriots score 30, the Lions 24 and the Eagles 28 against them. The Falcons are as good or better than all of those teams offensively.
Carolina is 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 68-33 (67.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC foes. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
Marc Lawrence
Bengals vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars -5½
Edges - Jaguars: 8-4-2 ATS as favorites in this series, including 5-1 ATS with a winning record…Bengals: 0-3 ATS in the first of three straight road games against avenging foes… With the Jags owning the best rushing offense in the league, and Cincinnati just 2-10-1 ATS in games in which it surrenders 100 or more rushing yards, we recommend a 1* play on Jacksonville.
Ray Monohan
Broncos vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -7
The Eagles lay a touchdown and are worthy of a move here.
Philadelphia is red hot right now, winners of 6 in a row and this team is playing as good as anyone right now.
Carson Wentz is in the groove as he's tossed for an NFC-best 2,063 passing yards to go along with 19 touchdowns. This Broncos team just doesn't have the firepower to keep up here. The Broncos are one of the worst offenses in the NFL, putting up just 18.1 points per game.
Some trends to note here. Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
This is just too much of a mismatch, as the Broncos do not have enough to maintain in this one.
Larry Ness
Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Falcons -1
The 4-3 Atlanta Falcons are in Carolina to take on the 5-3 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Both teams enter off wins which broke losing streaks.
Atlanta has to be feeling pretty confident here though, as it’s taken three straight in this series.
In the Falcons win in Carolina last year, they’d hold Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon to under 200 passing yards, while also intercepting him twice.
The Panthers have been all over the map as far as their game to game consistency is concerned and while they looked good against Tampa last Sunday, note that they were absolutely atrocious across the board in their 17-3 loss at Chicago the week before.
I’ll point out as well that Atlanta is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory.
In what should be a highly competitive divisional affair, I’m going to recommend a second look at the Falcons.
Chip Chirimbes
Broncos vs. Eagles
Play: Broncos +8
There is one thing for sure right now Philadelphia looks like the best team in the league and after what we saw Monday night the Broncos look like of of the worst. The joke to me this week is that the Denver quarterbacking option is back to Brock Osweiler who has come full circle with John Elways' genius bringing him back. Philly has won their last six while the Broncos have lost their last three and are 0-5 both straight-up and ATS in their last five road games. So, why would I think they have a chance. Well, remember no team is as bad or as good as they may have looked the week before. Both move toward the middle, Denver gets better and the Eagles dive.
Mike Anthony
Baltimore vs. Tennessee
Play: Baltimore +3.5
Alex Collins will make the LBs miss when Baltimore is moving the ball through the ground. The big play RB is going to be essential for a Ravens victory. When Collins is picking up big plays on 2nd down - the Ravens have been that much tougher to defend. Baltimore has been very up and down on the road - but Tennessee hasn't been overly dominant at home either. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota needs to learn to push the ball more, and not get frozen when the team needs him to put the ball in the end zone. The Titans QB only has 4 passing TDs on the season - and their TD passing is ranked just 31st in the NFL. Baltimore will take advantage of that with their tight DB coverage. Tennessee is not going to be able to pass the ball vs Baltimore's Brandon Carr and the rest of their ball hawking CBs. Ravens are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record Baltimore forces a lot of turnovers and has a solid defense to keep this one close.
Rob Vinciletti
Baltimore vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -3
The Titans have the bye week advantage and looking right at that scenario we see a perfect system. Play on home favorites off a bye week that won as a road favorite but failed to cover in their prior game,vs an opponent off a home favored win like Baltimore. These teams are not only perfect since 1989 but win by an average 21 points per game. The Titans are 6-0 to the spread after rushing for 50 or more yards less than their season average. The Titans have covered 4 straight off a road game vs a team off a home game and 3 of the last 4 here in this series. look for Tennessee to cover.
Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
Pick: Tampa Bay +7
New Orleans is a shocking 5-2 (SU) to start the year and the most "shocking" part about it is which side of the ball is leading the resurgence. A Saints defense that has (rightfully) been much maligned for the better part of a decade has improved somewhat dramatically - seemingly overnight - allowing 17 pts or fewer four different times during the team's current five-game SU and ATS win streak. However, upon further inspection, this "improvement" may be more of a "mirage" as it has as much to do w/ whom the Saints have played as anything else.
During the 5-game win streak, the Saints have played: Miami (worst offense in NFL), Green Bay (1st start for Brett Hundley) and Chicago (rookie QB). They did dominate the Panthers, in Carolina, which was impressive. But I'm still skeptical of this defense and this team. The fact they've been favored each of the past four weeks confirms that we really shouldn't be all that impressed with the win streak. Something else to monitor here is that THREE different offensive linemen missed practice time this week. Multiple absences in that unit Sunday would really hamper the team offensively.
Tampa Bay, as I predicted, is one of the league's bigger disappointments. They've lost four in a row, though three of the losses have been by five points or less. The exception was last week, as they fell 17-3 in Carolina. But the offense is better than how it looked last Sunday and I have to wonder if QB Jameis Winston was still feeling the effects of a shoulder injury suffered in the previous game. The Bucs have not covered a pointspread since their opener (Week 2 vs. Chicago), so we have two teams experiencing very different results at the pay window of late. But you know what they say about the pointspread - it's the "great equalizer." Bottom line here is that I do not believe the Saints are as good as their record nor do I believe the Bucs are as bad as theirs. I look for a close game between two, bitter NFC South rivals.
DAVE COKIN
CHIEFS AT COWBOYS
PLAY: COWBOYS -2.5
The Chiefs were spectacular in getting to 4-0, but they’ve been sliding ever since, at least in some important stat categories. Kansas City has lost two of three, and I thought they were only able to beat Denver because the Broncos QB was horrible.
That shouldn’t be the case here as Dak Prescott is looking good, and the Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliott on the field as well. That Dallas running game is now blazing hot, 164/786 the last four games. KC has surrendered four yards per carry in each of the last seven games, and I think that’s the element that decides this game.
Not a value call as the Chiefs were favored when Elliott appeared out, and the line has been adjusted. But I like Dallas on the matchup and will spot the small spread with the Cowboys today.
Brandon Lee
Thunder vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers +2½
Portland is not getting enough respect here as a home dog and a big reason for that is all the attention that OKC draws with their Big 3 of Westbrook, George and Anthony. The Blazers are also way undervalued due to the fact that they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games. Note that while Portland is just 5-4 to start the year, 3 of the 4 losses have come either in OT or by 3 or fewer points in regulation. Coming off two full days of rest and no travel, I expect a max effort here against the Thunder. I believe that will be more than enough to knock off OKC, who I think will be a little flat off that huge home game against the Celtics on Friday.
John Martin
Bengals vs. Jaguars
Play: Bengals +6
The Jaguars opened as 2-point favorites this week and have been bet all the way up to -6 now. I think the value side is now the Bengals. The Jaguars have alternated wins and losses all season. They seem to do well in the underdog role, but not in the favorite role. They haven't won two games in a row yet, and there's a good chance they won't start this week. They still have a limited offense with Blake Bortles at quarterback, and suspect weapons at receiver. The Bengals want to get their ground game going with Joe Mixon, and should be able to against a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in the NFL against the run, giving up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. The Bengals have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 19.3 points per game, 295 yards per game and 4.8 per play. Their defense and running game should keep them close for four quarters. The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, while the Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Mike Lundin
Bucs vs. Saints
Play: Bucs +7
The 5-2 New Orleans Saints have reeled off five consecutive wins while the 2-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost four straight. Top vs. bottom of the NFC East, but this looks like a prime spot to take the points on Tampa Bay in this divisional matchup IMO.
Note that Tampa Bay has kept things reasonably close in most games during its losing streak, losing by five to New England and Arizona and by three against Buffalo. The Buccaneers did hit a new low last week when they took a 17-3 loss against Carolina, but they're 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Saints D has not really been put to the test over the last two weeks with wins against Green Bay (who was without Aaron Rodgers) and Chicago (29th in total offense). Tampa Bay meanwhile held Cam Newton to only 154 passing yards last week, and I would not be surprised to see the Buccaneers explode on the offensive side of the ball here after failing to record a touchdown against the Panthers.
Cappers Club
Chiefs vs. Cowboys
Play: Chiefs +2½
The Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs face off on Sunday afternoon, and with the Chiefs as underdogs they have the value in this game.
The Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the AFC so far this year, and a lot have has to do with the play of the Alex Smith.
He has thrown for 2181 yards, 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The thing that the Chiefs need him to do is not turn the ball over, and he hasn't done that.
For the Cowboys they have been playing well, but in their last two home games they have been the team that has been defeated.
The defense hasn't been as good the last couple games at home, and i think that will continue in this one.
Some trends to note. KC are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. KC are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Vic Duke
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Play: 49ers +3
Arizona struggling defensively, allowing 27 PPG; consequently, we'll look for SF to stay in this one. The 49ers are stoked - grabbing QB Garoppolo and HC Shanahan could use him tonight. SF still has some solid personnel and hungry for that first win. Remember, SF was 4-2 ATS in their first 6 games before misfiring to the class of the NFC East - Dallas and Philadelphia. Arizona has a better run game now with Adrian Peterson, but QB Drew Stanton cast into the starting role on the road - where he's struggled throughout his career. With Arizona a shaky 1-10 ATS on the road off a double-digit ATS loss, and 1-4 ATS off a bye week, we'll take the points with SF.
Martin Griffiths
Mlaga vs. Villarreal
Play: Villarreal -1
It is difficult to see anything other than a very convincing win for Villarreal today.
Malaga are rock bottom of La Liga, they have just four points from a possible 30 and have lost every single league away game this season without scoring a single goal, this is a team in serious trouble.
Malaga has also lost their last three away games by at least two goals.
Villarreal is sixth in the standings, have won three and drawn two of their five home games this season in the league and in those wins have won by at least two goals.
Everything points to a Villarreal win and by at least two goals, therefore, backing Villarreal -1 is the best pick.