Scott Rickenbach
Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Falcons -128
With this line moving to a 2 or 2.5 in most spots, I would suggest grabbing the money line on this one if you access to it. As of early Sunday morning the money line is available as low as a -128 and this is offering great line value here. Even though the Panthers are off of a big 17-3 win, their struggles on offense continue. Carolina has averaged only 10 points per game the past two weeks. Also, in their three home games this season the Panthers are averaging only 15 points per game. The past 3 weeks Carolina's offense is averaging only 284 yards per game. The Falcons have won 3 of their 4 road games this season and they have scored at least 23 points in all 3 wins. Atlanta has won each of its last 3 visits to Carolina and this is a huge game for the Falcons as they get a chance to leapfrog the Panthers in the standings. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS when they face a division opponent that is off of a non-divisional game. That already happened once this season and that's when Carolina hosted the Saints in late September and they lost by 3 touchdowns! The Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games and I look for those struggles to continue here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +5½ over JACKSONVILLE
The NFL trade deadline has come and gone and the general consensus seems to be the Jaguars came out as one of the big winners after trading for star defensive lineman Marcell Dareus to bolster an already stout defense. While Dareus, a two-time Pro Bowler makes a fine addition to the Jags, the last time we checked he can’t throw a tight spiral. Quarterback play is still the Jags’ biggest weakness with Blake Bortles at the helm. Bortles leads an offense that ranked 15th in total DVOA but that is largely because of their run game. Bortles is 19th in total QB DVOA, 20th in DYAR and 19th in QBR. Bortles rank ranges in line with Carson Palmer and Eli Manning, two veteran QBs that have been skewered for their poor performance this season. The Jags have not been able to string together two wins in a row this season and while the general consensus is they should be well rested after the bye, we see that break as nothing more than a momentum breaker after the Jags shut out the Colts in Week 7. Jacksonville’s stock is at an all-time high, which is funny to say about a 4-3 team but that just shows how inept this franchise has been over the years. Just like we suggested on Thursday that Buffalo is not ready to take on the role of the chalk, neither are the Jags.
The Bengals were very fortunate to escape last week with a 24-23 win over the Colts after taking an interception to the house late in the game for the go ahead score. Cincy was an 11-point favorite in that game. The Bengals stock has been up and down this year but mostly down after a horrific start to the season. Many observers have noticed Cincinnati has played a very similar schedule to the Jags who have wins over the Steelers, Texans and Ravens, all teams who have defeated the Bengals. We’ve also seen the Colts used as a “like” opponent and the Bengals had no business defeating them either. However, what we know for sure is that Cinci is better than its record or their performance on the field. As an 11-point fav last week, they neatly got caught being stupid and it’s not an unusual occurrence.
There has been considerable hand-wringing and mockery over Cinci’s play this season and we wondered whether it being a big favorite would be a detriment or spur an excellent performance from them last week. Now we know it turned out to be the former, but this time last week we were most interested in testing the hypothesis that the Bengals might play with a chip on their shoulder after being told they don’t belong among the top-tier teams or even second tiered teams in this league. Channeling that outside noise into a lackluster performance rather than a something-to-prove attitude was a failure last week but if being a bigger dog against Jacksonville than they were against Pittsburgh doesn't inspire them this week, we’ll admit we’re wrong about this team being so much better than this market gives them credit for.
Indianapolis +252 over HOUSTON
The Colts shut down the franchise this week when they placed quarterback Andrew Luck on injured reserve, essentially ending his season before it ever started. The market may see this move as Indy giving up or quitting on the campaign but in reality, this is the best thing to happen to the Colts and it’s not like it was surprise to anyone in their locker room. Chuck Pagano has very likely informed them many times already this year that Luck wasn’t going to play. Aside from that, the players and coaches love Luck’s replacement. Jacoby Brissett, who the Colts picked up right before the season, is criminally underrated. While he doesn’t have the pedigree of some pivots, what he does have is some very valuable seasoning under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and he would be a franchise QB in a lot of places.
Right on the heels of the Luck news, the Texans, not to be outdone, announced that rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in practice and is done for the rest of the season, effectively ending any chance the Texans had to make the playoffs. With such a devastating injury, one has to wonder what the mindset will be in the Texans locker room, as they now must put the ball back into the hands of Tom Savage, who was so bad in the opener he was benched permanently at halftime in the very first game of the year. The Texans are a mess from the top of the organization down after they traded one of the best offensive linemen in the league in Duane Brown to the Seahawks. Brown was an early season holdout and in his absence, Tom Savage was sacked six times in just 31 snaps. One of the reported reasons the Texans were comfortable in trading the guy tasked to protect their new star QB was because of Watson’s ability to run. It’s a funny world ain’t it? The real reason, however, is that Texans owner, Robert C. McNair, didn’t like the outspoken Brown and his political views so he shipped him out. Brown is the OL that protects the QB’s blindside and he’s one of only a handful in the game that is outstanding at it. Shipping him out was a political statement by the owner and not a football move. Last week, before its game against Seattle, McNair went on to say that the “Inmates are running the Prison”, which prompted 30 players on the Texans side to take a knee to protest owner McNair’s comments of calling them “inmates in a prison”. The cliché or phrase is “The inmates have taken over the asylum” which is quite different than convicted felons in a prison. The players were furious.
With the owner unable to keep his pie-hole shut and being perceived as a racist, with their offense officially gutted along with a defense also decimated by injuries and suspension, the remaining Texans players can’t have much left in the way of spirit. To say this has been a bad week for the Houston Texans is an understatement. The line on this game dropped 6½ points when Watson’s injury was announced. That is huge, but it’s not unjustified. Honestly, the downgrade from Watson/Brown to Savage and whoever suits up at left tackle is much bigger. Tom Savage can’t be favored over anybody at this point even the lowly Colts on his home turf. While both of these teams lost their star QB’s for the season, the Colts mindset is much different. They are now free to play with house money the rest of the way and even though they keep losing, they show up and play hard every single week. We now get the superior QB on a team with a great mindset that always shows up and plays hard against a team whose season went from Super Bowl contention to dumpster fire in the span of two days. The Texans likely don’t show up here and are ripe to get beat. Take the points if you like but the Colts taking back better than 2½-1 in a game they might have a better than 50% chance of winning is our bet.
SAN FRANCISCO +122 over Arizona
The Cardinals didn’t play last week, which is as sweet as can be because the market has forgotten how bad they truly are. Even if Carson Palmer were playing this week, which he is not, San Francisco would be the play based solely on the mental state of each team. In that regard, the 49ers are in great spirits because they’re gearing up for a massive improvement while the Cardinals are on a one way road to hell.
Prior to its bye, Arizona lost 33-0 to the Rams. They allowed the stuck in neutral offense of the Bucs to score 33 points the week prior. They’ve allowed 33 points or more in three straight. The Cardinals have also played four road games and has one victory over that span, a very fortunate 16-13 OT win in Indianapolis. Arizona’s three other road games resulted in losses of 35-23, 34-7 and 33-0 to Detroit, Philadelphia and the Rams respectively but the loss to the Rams was overseas so the opposition wasn’t at home either.
Carson Palmer landed on injured reserve with a broken left arm. Drew Stanton takes the reins after four years of being the Arizona backup. The 33-year-old Stanton has started just one game since 2014. That one start was last year against San Francisco in which he threw for 124 yards. In recapping, The Cardinals have been outscored 66-7 over their last six quarters. Our mantra is never to buy low but for some reason this market has not adjusted to how awful the Cardinals are and have been. Arizona has one worthless road win this season. The Cardinals sit in third place in their division at 3-4, just got demolished by division-leading Los Angeles, and stand virtually no chance of competing with Drew Stanton at the helm. Now they’re favored on the road?! Physically, the Cardinals are horrible. Mentally, one has to wonder how difficult it will be to prepare for the rest of the games this year.
The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers took different paths to close out the first half of their season with records of 0-8. Cleveland actually held a 16-15 lead over Minnesota in London before the Vikings hit the switch and put the boots to Cleveland. The 49ers, on the heels of getting slapped around 40-10 by Dallas, fell behind 20-0 midway through the third quarter on their way to a 33-10 slapping from the Eagles. To recap, the 49ers are 0-8 and have lost its last two games by a combined 73-20 but unlike Arizona, the 49ers are headed in the right direction, as they are well-coached and the players are very aware that good things are on the horizon. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach and general manager John Lynch is outstanding.
The 49ers released Brian Hoyer and traded for Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick. A trade like that raises everyone’s spirit. You may think that Garoppolo can’t be that good if Bill Belichick let him go but that’s just Belichick taking care of his friends (Mike and Kyle Shanahan) on his way out. When Tom Brady retires, so, too, will Belichick. Belichick did the same thing with Jacoby Brissett to the Colts. We’re not sure if Garoppolo will play this week but wouldn’t be surprised if he did. He comes over well-schooled and ready to go. The 49ers just landed their QB. They have a ton of cap space and they are now the first team out of the blocks in the search for a franchise QB. The 49ers had a great 2017 draft too. Their top three picks, a defensive lineman, linebacker and cornerback are all starting and playing well. They have four picks in the first three rounds next year and now they have the ability to trade that #1 or #2 pick for another handful of picks. Last week’s 33-10 loss to the Eagles was a misleading score. Philadelphia’s offense had nothing but misery in trying to move the sticks but a bizarre series of events at the end of the first half turned a 3-0 lead with under 2½ minutes to go into a 17-0 lead. The 49ers have also played Seattle, the Rams, Washington, Dallas and Carolina and just missed against the Seahawks, Washington and the Rams. This is a battle tested team that does not deserve to be 0-8. They are a .500 football team and will probably be damn close to a playoff team next season. Spirits are high in that 49ers locker room and now they’ve never been more ready to know what it feels like to win a football game at this level. That “next step” happens right here. Arizona favored on the road here with Drew Stanton going is preposterous and it’s only because the 49ers are 0-8. We’ll take advantage of that and you should too. Keep the points. San Francisco outright gets the call.
Denver +7½ over PHILADELPHIA
Recommending Philadelphia here would probably be the easiest sell of the year. The Eagles are absolutely the talk of the NFL with the new stud QB on the block, Carson Wentz leading the charge. The Eagles brought even more attention to themselves this week when they traded for Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi. That was a declaration by the Eagles that “we’re going all in” this year. The Eagles are coming off a 33-10 thrashing of the 49ers. The week prior was Carson Wentz’s coming out party on Monday Night Football when he played brilliantly in a 34-24 win over the Redskins. He’s been brilliant all year. As an observer, there is nothing not to like about the Eagles chances to whack the Broncos.
Times are tough for the Broncos who cannot generate a passing game this year unless they are at home facing the Cowboys. The defense has been uncharacteristically lax in recent weeks but there isn’t a person on this planet that can put together a defense that could thrive when they are on the field so often. Denver’s inability to move the chains is the only reason that its defense looks worse than it is. This is not a good defense; it’s a great defense so let’s start with that. Denver’s offense has lost seven fumbles and thrown 10 picks. It doesn’t get better either. Trevor Siemian continues to slide and comes off a three-interception loss to the Chiefs that only saw him complete 19 of 36 for 198 yards and one late, meaningless score. Two of the interceptions were high-school bad. HC Vance Johnson would not commit to Siemian as the starter this week but his only other options are Brock Osweiler, who does nothing but sit on the sideline and count his Cleveland money and Paxton Lynch, who missed the season so far with a shoulder injury and is only now back to practicing. Yes indeed, the Broncos look to be in serious trouble but we once again have to wash this stuff from our brains.
You see, the oddsmakers are not idiots. The Broncos were a +7-point dog in a stand-alone prime-time game last week against K.C. and were whacked. Three weeks ago in a stand-alone game in prime time against the Giants, the Broncos lost by 13 points as a 13-point favorite. In between those two prime-time games, they lost by 21 to the Chargers. However, the Broncos are truly not far off from having a really good game because its defense is so good. That defense has not allowed a rushing score yet this year. Only one runner topped 55 rushing yards against them and that was the freakish game that Orleans Darkwa had in Week 6. The Eagles are being told that all they have to do is show up this week. Furthermore, the Eagles have a bye on deck followed by a game against Dallas so everything sets up well for the Eagles to “take a breather”. This is a classic case of buying low and sellng high and it might be the most pronounced buy-low/sell high scenario this year. That doesn’t mean it’s going to win but it does mean that we’re grabbing inflated points with the Broncos and that’s something we must step in and play.
The Rest of the Games
Atlanta +112 over CAROLINA
The Panthers ended their two-game losing streak last week when they faced the punchless Buccaneers and beat them, 17-3. The week before they lost by that reverse score to the Bears. Cam Newton was having a down season until he threw for 300 yards and three scores for two straight weeks in New England and then Detroit but in the three games since, he's been held to no more than 239 passing yards and only two scores total. The Panthers are a difficult team to get behind. Cam Newton misses his receivers by 20 feet often. In half their games this year, the Panthers have scored 17 points or less. In three of those four, they scored 13 or less. From time-to-time Carolina comes up with something surprising but more often than not, they don’t. As the favorite, we’ll pass.
The Falcons ended their three-game losing streak with a close win over the Jets but the NFL's best offense from 2016 continues to produce roughly half of the production from last year. That’s the results. The ingredients are much better. The Falcons are averaging over six yards a play, which ranks second in the NFL. This is a Falcons team that has not looked sharp on TV the past two weeks with a sloppy win over the Jets after a horrible showing against the Patriots in prime time the week before. We all know what happens when a team looks that bad on TV. Everyone sells. The Falcons are not terrible at all. They have better personnel than Carolina and they have the more reliable QB by far. Situationally speaking, the Falcons will be playing their third consecutive road game here, which is not beneficial and it’s the only reason that they didn’t make our board. Play: Atlanta +122 (No bets).
Tampa Bay +7 -110 over NEW ORLEANS
Take away the first two weeks of the season and the Saints have the second-best record in the NFL. The defense suddenly showed up and has not gone away. The offense doesn't crank out the yards and points as it once did but it does not need them. Still, one has to look at the Saints opposition before trusting that defense. The last two weeks the Saints defense held the Rodgers-less Pack to 17 points and the Bears to 12. Previously, they shut out the Dolphins and held the Panthers to 13 points. That’s four offenses that can’t move five yards. When the Saints played the Vikes, Patriots and Lions, they were shredded for 29, 36 and 38 points respectively so let’s not get carried away here in thinking that this is a rejuvenated unit. It very well might be but we’re going to have to see them do well against legit competition before trusting them spotting seven points. The Saints stock is high, which puts us in the seller position.
It’s hard to imagine that the Tampa Bay Bucs were 2-1 after three weeks and taking passengers on their bandwagon. In hindsight, home wins’ against the Bears and the Giants doesn’t hold the impressive nature it may have in September. They have lost four straight games in a division that doesn’t tolerate losing – New Orleans and Carolina are currently playoff teams and Atlanta is the defending NFC champ. The Bucs are the floating corpse of the division. In the three road games they have played, Tampa Bay has allowed 34, 38 and 30 points and the teams that have squandered them aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts – Minnesota, Arizona and Buffalo. The Bucs have played perhaps one of the easiest schedules in the league while QB Jameis Winston has been dreadful. The Buccaneers were already saddled with a sieve-like defense and there are several reports out there that suggest Winston is busted up physically. It’s really difficult to get behind the Bucs here but in terms of buying low and selling high, this one fits that strategy more than any game on the board this week so we must stick to our guns. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +7 (No bets).
Baltimore +3½ over TENNESSEE
Not only are the Titans not ready to take that next step, they are one of the weakest teams to get behind when favored. The Titans are quite simply a better dog than they are a favorite. After starting the season playing four consecutive games against top-half offenses, the Titans defense has had the fortune of facing the 32nd, 31st and 30th-ranked offenses in consecutive weeks as it headed into its bye. That, and that alone, is the reason the Titans posted a 2-1 record in those games. Mariota's hamstring was not healthy but it should be healthy now following a bye but so what. We like Mariota but his coaches prevent him from thriving.
The Ravens have a poor offense, and it is one that defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is familiar with, given his time in Pittsburgh. Benefiting the Ravens is the Titans' poor pass rush, which ranks third worst in the league. The last time we saw Baltimore was on a Thursday night when they were bitch-slapping the Dolphins, 40-0. What makes Miami’s epic beat-down at the hands of the Ravens last Thursday even more stunning was something that hadn’t been noticed by many. In their previous 17 regular season games prior to supplying the butt in an old-fashioned butt-whoopin’, what would you suppose their record was? Would you believe 13-4? It is possible for a team to fly under the radar when they’re playing dominant football. Baltimore is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL right now and we told you about them against Miami too. That was the right time to play them and it might not be too late to get on board. Recommendation: Baltimore +3½ (No bets).
N.Y. GIANTS +3½ over L.A. Rams
The 5-2 Rams and the 1-6 Giants come off their bye weeks. The Rams are a perfect 3-0 on the road and the Giants are a perfect 0-3 at home. Honestly, we hate this game. We hate the thought of getting behind the Giants because they’re simply a weak team with no direction that does not believe or trust what their lame coach is selling them. On the other hand, we have the Rams, a team that is as well-coached as any and that should be able to destroy the Giants.
Unfortunately, it’s not that easy and when something looks too good, it’s usually not. The Giants were already struggling before losing the starting wide receivers for a team that already had no real running backs. The shocking win over the Broncos finally got the Giants on a winning track (for one week) but the results of hosting the Seahawks made it apparent that short of stumbling into a trap game every week, the Giants will be hard-pressed to rack up many wins on the remaining schedule. Is this a trap? We’ll see but we’re also aware of games that don’t smell right and this one lines up as such. Be careful. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants +3½ (No bets).
SEATTLE -8 over Washington
This game should probably make our board but it won’t because it’s a prediction and not a value play. It is of our always humble opinion that the Redskins will likely get crushed here for a number of reasons. First, the culture in Washington is that when things start to go downhill, the locker hasn’t shown us for years that they can stop the bleeding. Kirk Cousins is now being told he’s nothing more than a replacement level QB and does not belong in the upper tier of NFL starting QB’s. That assessment is probably true too. The Redskins have dropped two straight and continue to be limited by their lack of a credible rushing game.
The Seahawks have won 27 of their past 33 home games, including all three this season. Add to that the injuries Washington is dealing with -- tight end Jordan Reed, left tackle Trent Williams, right guard Brandon Scherff and receiver Jamison Crowder -- and their task is even tougher. There's a chance four backups will start along the line here. If the Redskins are to stay within range, they are going to need some bounces and calls (refs) but that’s not likely in Seattle. Washington is 0-4 vs. high-level mobile quarterbacks and the Seahawks just picked up left tackle Duane Brown (one of the best in the biz) to protect Russell Wilson’s blind side. With their top weakness addressed and Russell Wilson off to the best statistical start of his career, there's a lot to like about the Seahawks' here. However, we are also aware that playing the Seahawks means spotting inflated points and it’s for that reason we are not stepping into this one. Recommendation Seattle -8 (No bets).
DALLAS -2½ over Kansas City
The will he, won’t he, he will until he doesn’t saga of Ezekiel Elliot took a couple of more turns this week when Zeke was again suspended but then granted an appeal so he will play this week. While Elliot is getting the majority of the headlines, second-year pivot Dak Prescott is quietly having a really good year throwing for 1569 yards, 14 touchdowns with just four interceptions in seven games this season but it’s not just the surface numbers that are looking good for him. Prescott’s QBR is 74.0 which is second best in the NFL. QBR was developed to measure the degree to which a quarterback contributed to scoring points for the team, and also to a win by the team. Prescott is also a top DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) QB (7th) and DYAR (8th) (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Along with Zeke, the Cowboys offense brings a great balance and Elliot leads all runners in DYAR with 184 yards and he’s 4th in rushing DVOA. A big reason for the ‘Boys offensive success is because of their stout offensive line, which is 3rd in power running success at 82%. The guys up front are great pass blockers too, as Dallas is fifth in adjusted sack rate at just 4% and allowing only nine sacks all season. Dallas is 4-3 and just 1-2 at home but after two straight road wins, the ‘Boys look to be trending in the right direction.
The Chiefs' accomplishments so far this season have been well documented after they started the year with a blowout win over the Patriots. K.C. is 6-2 and tied for the best record in the AFC after beating the Broncos at home on Monday Night Football but there have been some cracks forming, especially on the defensive side of the ball. K.C. brings the 28th ranked run defense into this game and with Zeke rushing for 297 yards the last two games, that is going to be a tough matchup for this unit. Under the hood, it doesn’t get much better for the D. The Chiefs are 26th in total defensive DVOA including 31st against the run suggesting they are actually worse than the surface stats suggest when it comes to stopping the ground game. One of the worst spots for perceived strong team is playing a division rival in prime time, whacking them and subsequently playing on the road against an opposite conference opponent they rarely see. Kansas City has played the role of conquering heroes a bit too much this year and thus, it is the Cowboys, not the Chiefs that are being sold short here. Play: DALLAS -2½ (No bets).
MIAMI +145 over Oakland
The Dolphins made headlines for all the wrong reasons again this week when they traded last year’s breakout runner Jay Ajayi to the Eagles for a kicking tee and a bag of old balls. The last time the market saw the Fish, they were being shut out 40-0 in Baltimore in prime time on Thursday Night Football. We are often looking for overreactions to prime time games and the Dolphins’ follow up provides an interesting opportunity, as they’ll be in a featured game again this week. Anyone that bet Miami last week on TNF is not coming back on them again here. If you cashed a ticket on the Ravens or even just watched that game, it’s hard not to have your mind poisoned by how putrid the Fish were and now they are without Ajayi, who many considered to be their best offensive player. Going into last Thursday’s game there was a lot of talk about how much better the Dolphins’ offense would be with Matt Moore at quarterback rather than Jay Cutler, but we’re not in agreement. Even with cracked ribs, Cutler is probably a better option and he is set to return this week.
When the Oakland Raiders improbably beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the final seconds of the Thursday night game in Week 7, it was seen as saving their season. For a team that lost only four games in all of 2016, the Raiders appeared ready to get back into the race. With 10 days to prepare for Buffalo, the Raiders had a lot to win by going into Buffalo and taking out the Bills on Kahlil Mack’s return to his college hometown. Instead, they learned they had a lot to lose, getting blown out by the Bills 34-14, dropping them to 3-5 with five losses in their last six games. The trendy pick to win the AFC West is now trying to keep their heads above water with the most difficult part of their schedule still to come. The Black Hole seems more appropriate to describe the team’s playoff potential this year, not their rabid fan base. Rather than travel back to the West Coast after the loss to Buffalo, the Raiders picked up and went to Sarasota, Florida for the week. The market is putting stock into this approach, as it paid off for Oakland last year when it won both games in the Sunshine State. However, the Raiders dream season from a year ago appears to be in the rearview mirror and this team cannot stop anybody and is having trouble scoring. Oakland has only put up 17 or more points once this season and that was in that fortunate win over Kansas City. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders have allowed at least 30 points a game in three of their last four contests and a look under the hood shows that those poor results are no fluke. Oakland’s porous D is 31st in total defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) just ahead of the last place Patriots.
As situational bettors, this game checks a few boxes. We have overreactions to Miami’s brutal loss and the trade of a high profile player. The Raiders were done no favors by the schedule makers by having back-top-back road games out east. The Raiders have been a low percentage bet on the road covering just one of their last five games away from the Colosseum. Finally, we have the number, which pretty much tells us all we need to know here, as we have a popular public team with a high profile laying a small price on the road against what appears to be inferior competition. Play Miami +3 (No bets).
Will Rogers
Rams vs. Giants
Pick: Rams -4
The set-up: The Rams were just in 2016 but a coaching change and the 'overnight' development of QB Jared Goff have turned the 2017 edition of the Rams into one of the NFL's biggest surprises. Sean McVay, the grandson of John McVay (one-time Giants head coach from 1976-78) is the NFL's youngest head coach. He's worked wonders with Goff, the overall No. 1 pick of the 2016 draft. Goff was 0-7 as a starter in his rookie year but he's led the Rams to a 5-2 record so far. Meanwhile, the Giants, a playoff team in 2016, opened 0-5 and come into this game just 1-6 on a season which will end in the team's fifth missed postseason since the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011.
LA Rams: Goff is completing a modest 59.9 percent for 1,719 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions (90.3 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley has really blossomed in 2017, rushing for 627 yards (and five TDs, while adding 27 catches for three more TDs. That duo leads an offense which ranks second in the NFL by scoring 30.3 PPG. The Rams revamped their offensive line, adding three new starters and also upgraded their perimeter players by adding WR Sammy Watkins and TE Gerald Everett; The defense converted from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new DC Wade Phillips and is more than holding its own, allowing 19.7 PPG (11th) on 328.1 YPG (15th).
NY Giants: While the Rams are in the midst of a huge turnaround, the Giants are headed in the opposite direction from 2016. The offense was supposed to be vastly improved but is averaging 16.0 PPG (30th) and will be forced to continue the rest of the season without WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall. Eli is not having much of a season and gets no help from a running game averaging 83.7 PPG (27th) plus last year's defense (No. 1 in PPG in the NFC in 2016), is allowing 22.3 PPG to rank 17th.
The pick: Gurley is seeking his fourth straight 100-yard performance on the road and enters this contest third in the NFL with 920 yards from scrimmage and shares the league lead with eight overall TDs, Goff has a running game to back him up (something Eli does not) plus healthy receivers (again, something Eli lacks). The Rams ”D” seems to have grasped the schemes of Wade Phillips and their D should have little trouble getting to Manning. The Rams are 3-0 on the road in 2017 and make it 4-0 here at MetLife Stadium.
Bruce Marshall
Broncos at Eagles
Pick: Under 41
Thanks in good part to that bad roughing-the-passer call on last drive, Denver able to squeeze "over" vs. KC on Monday. Still say Broncos have an "under" look, especially if move to Osweiler works as planned; Brock-lobster expected to perform as he did in 2015, and how Vance Joseph and McCoy wanted Siemian to perform, simply avoiding mistakes. Osweiler didn't do that at Houston LY but the thought is he was trying to do too much with Texans.. If he plays as he did most of the way in 2015 with Denver, Broncos should be pretty low-variance, and they are running better this season. Denver "D" still formidable and better able than most to deal with Wentz.
Jim Feist
Chiefs vs. Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys -2.5
Is he or isn't he? That is the question these days in the merry go round that is Ezekiel Elliot. Every time the NFL suspends him, he gets a judge to put a hold on it. At this rate, Elliot might just play the entire season. However, for today, he's IN! And that's important to this Dallas team looking to improve to 5-3 on the season. They will have to do so against one of the best AFC teams, the 6-2 Chiefs. KC snapped their 2-game losing streak with a win last Thursday over the Broncos, 29-19. Now they have to play the short week on the road here at Dallas. The Dallas offense has been on stride, scoring 33 in their win at Washington last week and 40 at San Francisco two weeks ago. This is a different Dallas team with Elliot in the lineup and for that very reason I'm taking Dallas here on Sunday.
Harry Bondi
Atlanta / Carolina Under 42.5
After a historical “over” season last year for the Falcons, Atlanta has now gone under in three of its last four games, thanks to an offense that is averaging 12.2 points per game less than last year’s unit. That’s bad news for the Falcons here today as they take on a Carolina defense that hasn’t allowed a TD in eight quarters and comes in ranked as our second-best defense in the league. On the other side of the ball, the Panther offense has also regressed quickly, going from averaging 31.8 points per game in 2015 to just 18.5 this season. The team also just traded its most valuable receiver in Kelvin Benjamin and is already without TE Greg Olsen, who was lost for the season with an injury back in September. This has all the makings of a low scoring game.
Buster Sports
Chiefs vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -2
The Kansas City Chiefs go to Jerry’s World to play the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup between a couple of the upper echelon teams of the NFL. The Cowboys did not play their best football to start the season but now have won two straight games and are starting to look like the team who was favored to win the NFC East title. Now that they know RB Ezekiel Elliot will play, the Cowboys and their 2nd ranked rushing attack will concentrate on pounding the KC defense who rank 28th against the rush. Kansas City got off to a great start this year but have now lost two of their last three games. Even though they won their last contest against Denver, they were out yarded 364-276. At 4-3, this game is much more important to the Cowboys who need to go on a long winning streak if they have any chance at catching the Eagles for first place in the division. The Cowboys are a small favourite at the time of this writing laying 2 points and we will be more than happy to lay those points, as we believe the Cowboys will get the home win today.
Executive Sports
Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Panthers +2.5
Play Against All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. (37-12, 76% over the last 5 seasons.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5).
VegasButcher
TB @ NO -6.5
The Bucks defense ranks 31st against the pass and 32nd in rushing the QB (based on ASR%). That’s a recipe for disaster against Drew Brees and Co. on the road. Of course it’s important to note that Tampa has had a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball for most of this year. They will still be without Grimes for this one (their best CB), but the rest of the defenders are getting healthier. The real key to this game will be Winston and the Bucs offense. While the Saints rank 4th in defending the pass (shocker, right?), they are 29th against the run. Tampa has to find a better balance than they’ve shown in the last few weeks and utilize their run-game a little more. With Winston dealing with a shoulder strain, I’d expect them to do just that. Then again, if they get down a few scores early, all bets could be off. The Bucs have lost 4 in a row, while the Saints are on a 5-game winning streak. It’d be easy to assume that this is a potential “easy win” for NO, but nothing is easy in the NFL. This is a divisional matchup and Tampa has shown in the recent past that they match-up fairly well with the Saints as they’ve gone 2-2 against them the last few years with neither loss being by more than a TD. In the offseason this line was NO -1.5, which is an indication that the bookmakers believed that Tampa would be the better team coming into this season. We now know that’s not to be the case. The question is, can the Bucs regroup and have a strong showing here? They could. But Winston’s shoulder, Grimes’ absence, and Tampa’s defensive limitations are hard to ignore. Lean: NO -6.5
BAL @ TEN -3.5
The Ravens have had 10-days to prepare for this one, while the Titans are off their BYE week. Both teams should be well rested and prepared for this one. On the injury front, Flacco will be active for the Ravens, after suffering a concussion against Miami. The Titans will welcome back their 1st round pick Corey Davis, though Delanie Walker could be limited after only appearing in one practice this week. The Titans are coming off three really poor showings as they’ve lost @ MIA (no Mariota), played a really close game against the Colts at home (pulled away late), and traded FG’s with the Browns, eventually winning in OT prior to their BYE. Those 3 opponents all rank between 30th and 32nd in the NFL….not just “3 of the worst teams”, they are THE 3 worst teams in the league (CLE, MIA, IND – in that order). Now they’ll take on a Ravens team that ranks in the top-half of the league. Baltimore sports the 3rd ranked defense, 2nd against the pass. They’re only 16th against the run, but remember that this team was dominant in that area when Brandon Williams played. He played in the first two games of the year (CIN, CLE) and the Ravens held their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing in each. He came back against the Vikings, and the Ravens got gashed, but in the next game, last week against Miami, Baltimore’s run-D once again dominated, holding the Dolphins to 45 yards on 19 carries. This is a much better run-D when Williams is healthy. Why is this important? Well, in order to slow down this ‘exotic smash mouth’ offense of the Titans, you have to be able to stop the run first. Ravens are equipped to do that. Offensively, Baltimore is as mediocre as they come, but they’ll be facing a poor Titans defense. Tennessee ranks 23rd defensively against the pass and sports the 30th ranked pass-rush. The preseason line was TEN -2.5, and I’m not sure how the Titans’ performance over their last 3 games hasn’t justified a line of at least a FG or lower. One could argue that the Ravens are a better team here as well. Lean: BAL +3.5
LAR @ NYG +4
West Coast team playing on the East Coast in the 1 PM EST time-slot. Typically that’s a tough spot to be in, but the Rams are coming off a BYE week so had ample time to prepare. Plus with an hour time-change this weekend, they’re getting an extra hour to get acclimated. I don’t see the effect being as drastic as in normal circumstances. The Giants are also coming off a BYE week. Prior to it, they got dismantled at home by the Seahawks, who consequently, were also a 4-point favorite on the road. One could argue that the Rams are a better team than Seattle so far this year. Yours truly is in that category 😉 From QB play (11 vs 22), to run-game (13 vs 26), to pass-defense (3 vs 22), to pass-rush (4 vs 25), to Special Teams (4 vs 27) – Rams are simply way better. This Giants offense is putrid without Beckham Jr. on the field, and I’m not sure a BYE week was enough time to fix that. In addition, something is definitely going on internally with this team. A few weeks ago Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was suspended for week 6 after walking out of the practice facility. Eli Apple has verbally complained about McAddo’s “culture”. And now, their best CB, Javoris Jenkins is suspended against the Rams, for not showing up to practice after the BYE-week, and not even contacting the team until Tuesday. Remember, there wasn’t much being done (if at all) over the last few years when ODB was acting out with his sideline outbursts, punching walls in locker-rooms (@ GB last year), or “peeing” like a dog in the end-zone during TD celebrations. ODB is a star, but it can’t sit well with the rest of the Giants players when they’re getting disciplined for their behavior while he’s not. In any case, I’m not a Giants’ insider so I don’t really know what exactly is going on, but on the outside looking in, things don’t look very good. Not sure how motivated their players are to suit up week after week. And if your mental focus and physical effort levels are down even slightly in a tough game like football, it could make all the difference in the world. Lean: LAR -4
CIN @ JAX -6
This spread opened at -3.5 JAX. It’s now up to -6. My model has this one at -9.2 JAX, so I was actually excited about the prospect of backing them at the opening number. Now, it’s a lot tougher to do so. Jags are 1-2 ATS as favorites this year and 3-7 ATS over the last few. Last two times they were home favorites this year they proceeded to lose to the Jets (game after London trip though) and the Rams (a better team than Jacksonville). In this matchup, Jacksonville is clearly the better team, and with the spread of -3.5 that would have been an easy play to recommend. But at the current number, I’m not so sure. Jags have an elite defense (#1 overall, #1 against the pass, #1 pass-rush, 32nd against the run) but Cincy has a real good one as well, ranking 11th overall. Could we see a defensive battle in this one? The total is at 39.5 so clearly the bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring game. And in a low-scoring environment, winning by a TD is much tougher than by 4-6 points. Lean: JAX -6
IND @ HOU -7
The opener was -13 at some places. It’s down almost 7 points since the news of Deshaun Watson’s season ending ACL injury. That’s all you really need to know about the massive downgrade at the QB position. You could argue now that the Colts are the ones with a better QB in this matchup. Another issue here is that Watson’s injury occurred on a Thursday. Obviously that didn’t leave a lot of time for Savage to prepare for this matchup. You can expect a pretty ‘vanilla’ offensive game-plan, as I’d project for Miller and Foreman to be pretty busy in the run-game. Hard to win that way in the NFL, but O’Brien has shown in the past to be pretty conservative with his game plans when he has a mediocre QB under center. Remember, he started out conservatively with Watson too before he realized what he had in him. The difference here is that the defense isn’t strong enough anymore to win those kinds of games. Injuries have taken its toll, as Houston has allowed 40+ points in 2 of the last 3 games. Overall, it’s hard to see these Texans players rallying on such a short notice. Going from so much hope and potential, to another lost season, has got to have an effect in this one. Lean: IND +7
ATL @ CAR +2.5
This one opened at -2 CAR and is now at +2.5. That’s a 4.5-point swing. You simply don’t see this during the regular season unless there’s an obvious reason. Sure, the Panthers traded away Kelvin Benjamin, but he shouldn’t move the needle at all really (he’s a mediocre WR, not an Antonio Brown who would be worth maybe a half-a-point or 1 at best). This line-move offers a lot of value for the home team. The Panthers have the 6th ranked D, 7th against the pass, 7th against the run, and 2nd rushing the passer. The Falcons have broken a 20-point mark only once in the last 4 weeks, and that was against the Jets. Expecting them to put up points on the road, against a quality defense, isn’t a ‘given’ like it was last year. Furthermore, this is Atlanta’s 3rd straight road game, which should make it that much harder to perform at a high level. Nothing about this team is suggesting that they should be a road-favorite against a divisional opponent. Pure line value is with the Panthers. Lean: CAR +2.5
DEN @ PHI -7.5
The Broncos are playing their 3rd straight on the road while the Eagles are playing their 3rd straight at home, mixed in with a BYE in the middle of it. From the physical standpoint, you have to assume that Philly is in a much better shape here. Of course the big news is that Brock Osweiler is the new starting QB for the Broncos. We all remember how he flamed out with the Texans last season, and there’s nothing to suggest that he’s gotten any better. It probably doesn’t matter who is under center as Denver clearly does not have a capable QB on their roster at this moment. The question is, can Denver’s defense limit Philly enough to keep this one close. Prior to the season, odds makers thought they could as they set the line at PHI -1. But trusting Osweiler on the road is just very hard to do. By the way, my model has this one at PHI -9.2. Lean: PHI -7.5
ARZ @ SF +2.5
The Niners traded for Garoppolo this week, though he won’t be starting until week 12 according to initial reports. Regardless, this is the end of the Beathard era. And it couldn’t have come soon enough. He is/was simply awful. Stanton isn’t good either, but he at least has some experience in the league, and with a BYE-week to prepare, you can expect him to be serviceable at least. One key factor is that Arizona has a lot more weapons at their disposal than San Francisco. Fitz, Brown, Nelson, Brown #2, AP – form a pretty solid supporting cast. San Fran on the other hand, last lost Garcon for the season. San Fran has been on the road for 4 of their previous 5 and 6 of their previous 7 games. Taking on a rested Arizona team won’t be easy in this matchup. Throw in the fact that 49ers are dealing with massing injury issues along their O-line, and the task becomes that much more difficult. Lean: ARZ -2.5
WAS @ SEA -7.5
Here are key injuries for Washington: Crowder (out), Reed (out), LT Trent Williams (out), C Spencer Long (out), OT Ty Nsekhe (out), OG Shawn Lauvao (out). Scherff practiced this week so he should return, but overall the O-line and the skill-position quality will suffer. Here are the injuries for Seattle: Earl Thomas (out), LG Luke Joeckel (out), MLB Bobby Wagner (GTD), Kam Chancellor (Q). Seattle did trade for Duane Brown, so he should shore up the O-line, but their defense will suffer even if only Thomas sits out. He’s that critical to their success. Still, Washington might not have enough firepower to take advantage here. Without Reed and Crowder, and virtually zero in the run-game, Washington will struggle in the play-making department. Plus the injuries to key O-linemen is an issue. My model has this one at -7.5 SEA, so there’s virtually no value one way or another. Lean: SEA -7.5
KC @ DAL -2.5
Two teams featuring top-5 offenses, bottom-8 defenses, and top-10 special teams. You could argue that these two teams are mirror images of one another. One key factor here is that we have the #1 ranked Dallas run-game going up against the 31st ranked KC run-D. Of course we also have the 2nd ranked KC run-game going up against 30th ranked DAL run-D. Like I’ve said, “mirror images”. The line is right where it should be (my model has this one DAL -2.2). If the bookmakers set it at -3, they’d get action tilted towards KC. At the current number, they should have balanced distribution on each side. One small factor to consider is that KC is on short week, after playing on MNF. Lean: DAL -2.5
OAK @ MIA +3
Raiders stayed on the East Coast this week in order to prepare for this game. This tells you that they’re taking this game very seriously. Obviously at 3-5 they don’t really have any room for error any more. Oakland is dealing with injuries in their secondary, but the Dolphins aren’t an imposing offense, ranking 31st in the league. I doubt they’d be able to take advantage. Plus Jay Cutler is back for this one. Let’s see if his cracked ribs hold up, and even if they do, this is a QB that is ranked among the worst in the league in all key categories. Raiders are a better team here, though that’s not saying much as Miami is truly one of the worst in all of the NFL. Lean: OAK -3
Joe Williams
Raiders at Dolphins
Play: Dolphins +3
Take the Dolphins getting points at home. Yes, they trade Jay Ajayi this past week to the Eagles, but he hadn't scored a touchdown all season anyway. It's not as big a loss as people are making it seem. The Raiders are just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, 1-5 ATS in their past six overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five vs. AFC foes. Miami is getting healthier and should be able to hang with the Raiders at home. If this were in Oakland it might be a completely different story.
Andy Iskoe
Cardinals vs. 9ers
Play: 49ers +2.5
Arizona returns from its Bye to face a Division foe it defeated at home 18-15 in overtime in Week 4. San Francisco remains winless at 0-8 following a second straight blowout loss that followed 5 straight losses by a FG or less. In using a horse racing analogy this is a major drop in class for the 49ers after having faced, and lost badly, to Dallas and at Philadelphia the past two weeks. And even 3 games back they lost on the road to a decent Washington team. In the earlier OT loss at Arizona the stats were not one sided and the 49ers had the better rushing game. There will not be many chances for the 49ers to earn a win but this is one such favorable spot for a team that, though short on talent, plays hard. And this time they will face backup QB Drew Stanton making his first start following the season injury to Arizona starter Carson Palmer. One way of gauging performance is to look at ATS records. Despite being 3-4 SU Arizona is just 1-6 ATS. The winless Niners are 4-4 ATS.
Bob Balfe
Rams/Giants Over 42
I want to take the Rams to win and cover this game, but the Giants are coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare and we would be asking a young team to do a lot 3000 miles from home. I do like this total because the Rams have a massive offensive line, a great running back in Todd Gurley, great receivers and Jared Goff is looking awesome. The best part is this team is being coached from an offensive mind instead of defensive. The Giants even on their two week break are a mess on defense missing today a few key pass rushers, 2 starting linebackers, Jenkins is suspended in the secondary and this team just doesn’t have that many active players on the back end. The good news for NYG is Shepard is back healthy at WR and again the 2 week break allows teams that are struggling to get better mentally and pull some tricks out of the bag. This Rams team doesn’t have much depth at the safety position so Eli might be able to beat them a few times deep. Look for a high scoring game.
Bucs +7
The Saints have made a huge turnaround in their defense, but could it be possible that in three of the games since their awful start they have played backup quarterbacks? Jameis Winston strained his shoulder earlier this year so week by week he is getting healthier. This Bucs team has a ton of offensive weapons than will face off against a pretty young cornerback unit for New Orleans. I love how the Saints have been playing on offense this year, but today they will be challenged by a good group of Tampa Bay Linebackers who will slow down some of those quick passes to the running backs and Tight Ends. New Orleans has a few injuries on the offensive line so I believe this spread has great value when playing the dog.
Cardinals -3
How can the Cardinals win without Carson Palmer? Defense. In the first meeting the Cardinals got to the QB ten times and I see much of the same today. I like what the 49ers have done by going out and getting Jimmy Garoppolo from New England, but he will be on the sidelines for a few weeks learning the system. The 49ers lack down field threats at receiver with Garcon out of the lineup. This is not a team that can play from behind and will make mistakes pushing the ball down the field. This offensive line is banged up which is not a winning formula in the NFL. Drew Stanton has been in this Cardinals system for a while and should do just fine with all of the talented receivers at his disposal. Arizona is a better football team no matter who the QB.
Seahawks -7
The forecast calls for rain in Seattle which is going to really hurt Washington as their offensive line went from one of the best to not having one healthy guy on it in a matter of days. Running Back Rob Kelley is also not 100 percent. Crowder and Reed are going to miss this game and in this rain I see Washington behind the chains all game. This is a good football team that is capable of winning anywhere in healthy, but they just are not healthy and there is nothing that can be done about that. Seattle should have their way with Russell Wilson’s decision making and should complete big plays against a secondary that is banged up and has very minimal experience.
Joey Juice
This Broncos defense may not be good enough to beat the Eagles by themselves, but i am definitely counting on them to severely slow the Eagles offense down. On the flip side I don't expect many points from the Denver offense.
I do expect the Denver secondary to make it extremely tough for Wentz to just have his way as he has had lately with everyone else.
A look inside the numbers reveals that the under is 9-1 in the Broncos last ten games following an ATS loss.
The Broncos offense is one that relies heavily on their running game, and the bottom line is it has not translated into points, and they are up against a strong Eagles defense As well.
This one goes under!
4* DENVER-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Jack Brayman
My free play is on the New Orleans Saints, over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as I take a look at this NFC South battle in the Big Easy.
The Buccaneers, a disappointing 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, have lost five of their last six in the Superdome. And while I know they have the fourth-best offense in the league, they haven't figured out how to win games.
New Orleans, on the other hand, has the second-best offense in the NFL and rolls in with a 5-2 mark overall.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees was fantastic last week, completing 82.1 percent (23 of 28) for 299 yards against a stringent Chicago defense that went into the game ranked sixth against the pass. Now he faces the leagu'es 30th-ranked pass defense.
All Saints in this one.
1* SAINTS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Falcons over the Panthers.
It's hard to know when to back the Atlanta Falcons this season, as the point-spread covering machine from a season ago enters Charlotte this Sunday afternoon having failed 4 in a row against the spread, and are just 2-5 against the spread for the year.
Normally those are go-against numbers where I come from, but Carolina perplexingly traded away their top wide receiver this week, and we all know how temperamental QB Cam Newton is. The trade of Kelvin Benjamin is bound to mess with not just Cam's mind, but the mind of the team in general as it sure looks like a white flag of surrender on the season is being thrown up by management.
The Panthers are winless against the spread this season at 0-3, and they are just 1-6 against the spread their last 7 overall at home.
Yes, this is Atlanta's third straight road game but it comes against a familiar division opponent, and they have won 2 of their last 3 visits to Carolina straight up.
They may not have won pretty last week at the Jets, but they did win, and until January rolls around they are still the defending NFC Champs.
Play is on Atlanta for Week Nine.
3* ATLANTA