Chris Jordan
Free pick for Sunday is on the Seattle Seahawks laying points to the struggling Washington Redskins, who have lost two straight on the field and four straight to the books.
Seattle, which has covered five of its last six in November, catches an East coast team in pacific time zone, playing at 7 pm Washington time, and make that 8 pm, since we moved the clocks back. The Redskins will be tired.
In a wild comeback win over the Texans last week, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a franchise-record 452 yards. At home, Wilson will have a big day against Washington's average pass defense.
Lay the chalk.
4* SEAHAWKS
Tommy Brunson
Another game, and another Over, that could very well be the mantra of both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys, as the Chiefs come to Arlington having played Over the total in their last pair of games. KC has also been Over in 4 of their last 5, and 6 of 8 now on the year. Throw in a 6-1 Over run their last 7 away from Arrowhead, and a case can be made for the Over today based on those stats.
But hold on....Dallas has also been an Over team this season, with Overs played in each of their last 4, and 5 of their 7 games contested this season. The Cowboys are also on an 8-4-1 Over run their last Baker's Dozen played at home.
With Ezekiel Elliott allowed to play this one, and with outstanding rookie Kareem Hunt also on the field doing his thing, expect some points to be posted between the teams.
Chiefs make it 7-2 Over for the season, while the Cowboys push their Over mark to 6-2 for the year.
5* KANSAS CITY-DALLAS OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Sunday is on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points against the Cowboys.
The AFC West-leading Chiefs responded well on Monday night - as I said they would with my 100 Dimer - and never lost focus on the task at hand. Today nothing changes against the turbulent Cowboys, who got another life with Ezekiel Elliott.
And while his lawyers are reportedly attempting to settle the case with the league now, and get his suspension reduced, I've heard from a couple of reporters I know in Dallas say the team has had enough of it, and there is tension in the locker room. That won't ever get out, of course, cause control-happy Jerry Jones has everyone tight-lipped.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are in a great mood. And because coach Andy Reid might know better than anyone how to prepare for the Pokes, from years with the Philadelphia Eagles, I think you're going to see the Cowboys get embarrassed today.
There is nothing wrong with Kansas City's system, ranked third in the NFL on offense, as it's been rolling behind quarterback Alex Smith. He is enjoying his best season as a pro, hooking up with talented tight end Travis Kelce and getting plenty of balance from rookie running back Kareem Hunt.
Kelce is in after catching seven for 133 yards, including a 29-yard touchdown, against Denver. Hunt is leading the league in rushing yards with 763, while he also has 28 receptions for an additional 307 yards.
And we've seen the kind of trouble Dallas gets into against well-balanced, dynamic offenses, like against the L.A. Rams, and like against Green Bay. Now it has to face Smith, who has thrown for 2,181 yards and 16 touchdowns with no interceptions
And the Kansas City defense, though it's not statistically ranked high, it's been playing better and arrives in Big D after intercepting three passes and recovering a fumble against the Broncos.
Trust me, according to several sports-book directors in Las Vegas, the squares are on Dallas and the sharp money is on Kansas City. That's not dumb money that is moving the line in the direction of the Chiefs - it's the smart move.
Play K.C., and with the line sitting at +2.5, I highly advise you to buy the half point up as long as the books are offering you anywhere between +2.5 and +4.
4* CHIEFS
Dave Price
Raiders vs. Dolphins
Play: Dolphins +3
The betting public wants to avoid the Miami Dolphins at all costs now after they were embarrassed last Thursday 40-0 by the Baltimore Ravens. But that game got away from them with two pick-6's. The Ravens didn't even manage 300 total yards yet scored 40 points. It was a misleading final score. And it was a bad spot for the Dolphins having to start backup QB Matt Moore on a short week. Now the Dolphins have had extra rest, and it has given Jay Cutler enough time to return from a rib injury. The Dolphins are also expected to have DeVante Parker healthy and on the field for the first time since Week 4. That will give Cutler another weapon outside and their best red zone target back. The Raiders are 1-5 in their last 6 games and shouldn't be favored on the road here. The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Nelly
Jacksonville Jaguars - over Cincinnati Bengals
Turnovers continue to plague the Bengals who survived last week with the help of a late defensive score. Two of three Cincinnati wins came against likely the worst two AFC teams and this is a dangerous matchup with the league's best pass defense and an opportunistic Jaguars secondary that has made a number of big plays. The Jaguars have a favorable November schedule with an opportunity to emerge as the clear AFC South leader if not a serious AFC contender. The Bengals are a better team than the record suggests but the offense has struggled against the other top defenses they have faced. The only road win of the season came against the 0-8 Browns and Cincinnati has been out-gained on the ground in five of seven games this season. Jacksonville's run defense is vulnerable but the recent addition of Marcell Dareus helps that cause and he faced the Bengals just a few weeks ago. Cincinnati is one of the league's worst rushing teams anyway with just 3.2 yards per carry and 78 yards per game. That will put a lot of pressure on Andy Dalton going against a great pass defense. Nearly trading A.J. McCarron isn't a great look for a Bengals team that certainly is still in the AFC wild card hunt and while Jacksonville's defense is getting a lot of attention the offense has posted 362 yards per game on 5.8 yards per play to blow away the numbers for the Bengals. Jacksonville out-gained the Rams by 140 yards in their last loss, a game featuring two special teams touchdowns against them and the loss to the Jets came a week after playing in London for a tough scheduling spot. This is a rare favorite price for the Jaguars but the number is certainly justified looking for the first win in this series since 2005.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +131 over CHICAGO
OT included. Montreal has lost eight straight to Chicago dating back to 2014. That’s another one of those useless trends we couldn’t give a f**k about and you shouldn’t either. You may also read or hear that the Blackhawks are coming off back-to-back shutouts against Minnesota and Philadelphia, thus, they haven’t allowed a goal in two-plus games or in 72 minutes. That’s also useless info. If Chicago’s defense was that good, why did they allow six goals against to Colorado earlier this week? Pucks going in or not is very largely based on pure luck around the net. The market is influenced by said results, which works to our advantage because it provides opportunities. We’re insistent that results do not even come close to telling the story.
Chicago is 7-5-2 while the Habs are 5-8-1 and both teams played last night. The Canadiens won in Winnipeg, 5-4 in OT while the Blackhawks won in Minnesota 2-0. Incidentally, Montreal played in Minnesota on Thursday and got whacked, 6-3 while Chicago was shutting out Philadelphia, 3-0 in its game prior to last night. Again, those are a bunch of results that mean very little. What means more is the product on the ice and Montreal’s ingredients are superior to Chicago’s. That Chicago has not allowed a goal in two games + is even better because a correction is more likely. The Canadiens continue to dominate puck possession numbers. They are a top-3 team in many key puck possession metrics. That 5-4 win over Winnipeg last night is another misleading score, as Montreal once again dominated from start to finish and outshot the Jets, 50-23 when it was all said and done. The Habs are also a strong Corsi against team, ranking second in the NHL in Coris against/per 60 minutes while the Blackhawks Corsi against ranks 26 out of 31 teams.
Hockey is the most luck-driven sport of them all and there is not a crystal ball in the world or system that is going to predict which team gets the bounces/deflections or the hot/cold goaltending. What we can predict, however with relative accuracy is which team is going to possess the puck and create more chances and in that regard, we’re confident that the Habs are clearly the superior team here. That Montreal win last night, being down 4-2 in the third and sticking with it to rally to a 5-4 win may carry over here and might be thing that ignites the Habs on a good run up the standings. Certainly, they’ve played well enough to be near or at the top of the standings but the misleading results say otherwise.
New Jersey +165 over CALGARY
OT included. We have no idea which team is going to win here but what we do know is that the Flames cannot be trusted in this price range. The Flames’ stock is a bit too high right now after back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh and Washington but against the Pens, Calgary was the undeserving winner after allowing 44 shots on net and 29 scoring chances against. Calgary has played 13 games thus far and four of its last five games have been decided by one goal. Six of their last seven games have been decided by two or less. The Flames have only won two games this year by three or more goals, which tells us that the opposition is in almost every game against them with a chance to win it. Analytically speaking, the Flames do have an edge here and it’s likely one of the reasons why the Devils taking back such a big price. Another reason is that this market does not believe that the Devils strong start (9-3) is sustainable, which it is probably not but that’s a story for another time. There are other reasons why Calgary is priced so high.
The Devils are coming off a 6-3 loss to Edmonton. They’ll also rest Cory Schneider here in favor of Keith Kinkaid but the Devils are 3-1 in Kinkaid’s start and he’s proven before that he’s a capable backup. Although the Devils Corsi against numbers are not great, they do not allow many high danger scoring chances, which suggests they are keeping the opposition on the perimeter. New Jersey ranks 7th in high danger scoring chances against and Calgary ranks just below them in 8th. The point is that this game looks more like a coin toss than it does a one-sided affair like the price suggests. The Devils have several players playing at a high level and they are also burying a lot of pucks right now while Calgary is struggling to score. Again, those are luck based numbers (pucks going in) but when the pucks aren’t going in, players get more frustrated and are gripping their sticks a little bit tighter. At the end of the day, this game is not priced correctly and we therefore must continue to play the value.
Matt Fargo
Raiders vs. Dolphins
Play: Raiders -3
The Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing 40-0 loss last Thursday against Baltimore and look to regroup in another nationally televised game. Matt Moore was awful, and Jay Cutler will be back for the Dolphins at quarterback and even with him, the offense has been inconsistent at best in Miami as it is averaging 13.1 ppg which is dead last in the NFL. Compounding matters is that the Dolphins lost 86 percent of their rushing production after trading Jay Ajayi to the Eagles which hurts the offense that much more and will need extra time to adjust. The Dolphins have been outgained in six of seven games, so their 4-3 record is skewed. This is a big game for the Raiders which are now 3-5 after losing in Buffalo last week. They are three games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, but they do have a game in hand from the win two weeks ago and it is just a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot which is wide open. It has been a disappointing season for Oakland after its 12-4 season from last year and the issue is in the turnovers category. The Raiders are the first team in NFL history to fail to intercept a pass in the first eight games of the season and they have just five takeaways compared with 11 giveaways, a big turnaround from a year ago when they had a plus-7 turnover margin at the midway point. The return of Marshawn Lynch is a positive as Oakland rushed for just 54 yards on 14 carries without him last week and on the season, he has 266 yards on 72 carries. Going back, the Dolphins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
ASA
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Play; Under 54
The Tampa offense has been shaky at best this year and QB Winston doesn’t look like he is 100%. His shoulder has been bothering him and he doesn’t have much zip on the ball. They tend to move the ball OK and put yardage in the stat sheet but they are not efficient averaging only 21 PPG. New Orleans is usually not known for their defense but man are they playing well right now. After allowing 65 points in their first two games of the season, the Saints have allowed just 80 points in their last 5 games (16 PPG). Their defense has held opposing QB’s to the lowest rating in the NFL over the last 5 weeks. Tampa’s offense will struggle again this week. The Saints offense isn’t nearly as explosive as they have been in recent years. They are averaging 27 PPG but much of that is due to their big 52 point output vs Detroit. The fact is they’ve been held to 20 points or less in over half of their games this season. While Brees remains one of the better QB’s in the league, New Orleans has relied much more heavily on the run this year. They are 14th in the NFL in run play percentage at 44%. Over their last 3 games they’ve run the ball 50% of the time. They are simply not the pass happy offense they once were. Tampa has been up and down defensively but they’ve had their moments. They held Carolina to 17 points last week and held New England to 19. Against a division opponent they know very well, we think TB will be OK defensively here. This number is really high at 54. Both offense need to be on point to get to this number and we don’t see it happening.
Tony Finn
Denver vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -6.5
The Broncos travel two time zones to square off against the NFC East first place Eagles. Kickoff is schedule for 1:00 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field. NFL Sunday Free Pick: Denver at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia improved their overall talent base this past week trading for running back Jay Ajayi. The Eagles picked up Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins for a fourth-round pick in 2018. The Broncos did little in the offseason to give themselves a chance to compete in a quarterback heavy division and the team's 2017 results have suffered.
Denver is traveling for the third straight game and come off a short week of preparation. The Broncos current slide goes back to their Week #3 contest in Buffalo, a 26-16 loss. They did follow that road defeat with a win at home against divisional foe Oakland. But loses to the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers and last week's Monday Night drubbing at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs has the team 3-4 on the year. Denver is on the verge of being a non-playoff contender with a loss in Philadelphia today.
Denver is making a change at quarterback. They have promoted former starter Brock Osweiler to the starting role he held in 2015. The recent form of Trevor Siemian who tossed three picks in the 29-19 loss to Kansas City on Monday has been porous, to write the least.
Expect to see a quick passing attach with a heavy work load for running backs C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles to prevent the solid defensive front of the Eagles from unloading on the new Denver signal-caller.
The Eagles have won six in a row and get the road weary Broncos in a contest with an early start. Quarterback Carson Wentz, in only his second season, has proved he is ready for the big stage. Wentz has thrown for 19 touchdowns and an NFC-best 2,063 passing yards. Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount form a pounding duo for Wentz and the offense to utilize. Along with tight end Zach Ertz and wide out Nelson Agholor the Eagles offense is a formidable unit.
Philadelphia has scored 20 or more points in 12 consecutive contests and have advantages across the board against a Denver offense that has scored 16, 16, 10, 0 and 19 points across their last five games.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Cleveland
Pick: Atlanta +11.5
Atlanta has covered the spread four of the last five meetings, and both teams are on bad current ATS runs with the Cavaliers just 1-6 ATS their last seven games while the Hawks have covered one of their last four. Cleveland beat Washington 130-122 on Friday as LeBron James exploded for 57 points on 23 of 34 shooting as the Cavs shot 56.1 percent as a team. Don't expect that to happen two games in a row, and the line is inflated due to that performance. The Hawks come off a 119-104 loss to Houston while shooting 48.1 percent, and Kent Bazemore scored a team-leading 18 points. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS its last five home contests and 1-4 ATS after a win this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS after scoring at least 100 points and 4-11 ATS their last 15 games versus teams with a .400 or lower winning percentage. Take the big points with the Hawks.