Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, November 6th, 2016

Strike Point Sports

Philadelphia (+2.5) over New York

I don't like the Giants as a favorite here. Don't buy in to the fact that this team is 4-3 or that they are coming off their bye. The Giants offense is basic and boring, and that is truly disappointing with the talent that they have on that side of the football. Ben McAdoo and his coaching staff are letting this team down as they have the ability to be considerably better. The Eagles defense will give the Giants fits in this game as they will have Eli forcing throws all day long. The Giants seem to be too stubborn to move their wideouts around, and until they do so they won't be able to compete with the better teams in the NFL. The Giants running game is inept. They haven't averaged more than three yards per carry in their last three games. The Eagles defense is one of the best in the NFL in points per game/against, and that will prove very beneficial in this game. Look for the Eagles to win this game outright 24-20.

Jason Sharpe

Miami (-3.5) over New York

The New York Jets have won their last two games in a row and are now back to 3-5 on the season overall. Don't be fooled though by the Jets back-to-back wins as they trailed at the half and needed a 2nd half comeback in both of these games. The wins also came over bad teams, the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens. Some might argue that a win over the Ravens is a good victory, but not in this spot as Baltimore was missing a ton of key guys (Steve Smith, Suggs, Mosley, Stanley, Wright) in that game that were out with injuries. Speaking of injuries, no team was probably affected more by the injury bug than the Miami Dolphins early this season. The Dolphins were missing at least one and sometimes two of their top offensive linemen to injury in each one of their first five games this year. Those losses weren't just to average offensive linemen, either, but instead both Mike Pouncey and Branden Albert, who are two of the top offensive linemen in the NFL. Making things worse, though, was how poorly the Dolphins replacements played when they were on the field for Miami as they went from having a couple pro-bowl level guys to guys who shouldn't be starting in the NFL. These types of injuries in the NFL aren't factored in enough in the betting markets. The Dolphins showed just how much different of a team they are when they have their top 5 offensive lineman on the field at the same time as that group helped pave the way for over 200+ yards rushing in each of their last two games as Miami won both games also. The Dolphins come into this one healthy and well rested off their bye week and should be favored by a lot more points than this. Take Miami minus the points in this game.

Jeff Hochman

Broncos vs. Raiders
Play: Broncos +1

I love fading NFL teams after any type of record-setting performance. The Raiders had two with Derek Carr's record-setting passing and all those miscues. The public has been pounding the Raiders based on the fact they will play a much cleaner game than last week's 23 penalty performance. The Raiders have been a public team with bettors in Nevada as they anticipate a move to to Las Vegas. I'm not buying it! The sportsbooks hung this line at Denver -2.5 and was quickly bet down to a pick em. As you can see, Denver is now a 1-point underdog at a couple of books. This will be the third straight game that Denver will start a different QB against Oakland. That's a slight advantage for the Broncos. Peyton Manning started last October and than Brock Osweiler replaced Manning as the starter in the second meeting last December. Sure, the Raiders have tape on Trevor Siemian, but playing against him is another story. He can run which should help against a Raiders' defense that is ranked No. 25 in points against. The Broncos' defense is allowing a league-best 63.6 QB rating against, while the Raiders' defense has allowed QB's to post a 94.7 QB rating so far this season. That's a big number for a team that has won six of their eight games. This will be a classic NFL game where you have a top-ranked offense (Oakland) going up against a Top-ranked defense (Denver). Oakland's offense is ranked No. 4, while the Broncos check in at No. 21 according to Football Outsiders. The Broncos' defense is ranked No. 2, while the Raiders' stop unit is ranked No. 28 by Football Outsiders. DeMarcus Ware returns to the lineup and when he starts a game along with Von Miller, Denver has gone 14-5 SU in the past 19 games. The Visitor is 14-0 ATS in Oakland games of late. The Raiders are just 7-7 SU in predicted close games (when the line is +3 to -3), while the Broncos are an impressive 10-3 SU.

Cal Sports

New Orleans at San Francisco
Play: New Orleans -3

The 49ers have now lost 6 in a row both SU & ATS with the average defeat by 17 PPG. On the flip-side the Saints have won 3 of their last 4 and are 3-0-1 ATS in that span. We also like the matchup of the Saint’s #2 offense facing the 49ers #30 defense while San Fran also has the leagues #32 offense. Drew Brees has covered 5 straight games away from home. SF is off a bye week but when you’re a team on a long losing streak and still have issue’s at which QB should be starting it’s not a huge benefit. With the two teams headed in opposite directions I’ll back the hot team playing another week compared to a losing team with a week to let their problems fester.

Bryan Leonard

Denver at Oakland
Play: Denver Pk

In a win and cover situation we would rather trust the veteran Denver defense over the young Oakland offense. Denver showed last year it has the ability to step up in big games, and this certainly is a huge contest with Oakland an up and coming team. Denver is 2-1 SU on the road, winning the yards per play battle in all three games. There is also the motivation factor for Denver who has lost the last three games against the Raiders.

Oakland has done its best work this season on the road, and is back at home after spending the past two weeks in Florida. The Raiders have dropped 2 of 3 in the Coliseum losing the ypp battle by 0.9, 2.6 and 1.8.

We feel despite the Raiders road success that this team is a bit overrated at the moment. We will back defense over offense on Sunday and back the visitor.

King Creole

Jaguars / Chiefs Under 44.5

Points will be at a premium on Sunday as the reeling Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) head west to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2). We will be Going LOW in this game. A lot of bettors will probably be shocked to learn that from a statistical angle, Jacksonville actually has the better DEFENSE (only 349 ypg allowed to 358 for Kansas City). But from a 'points allowed' perspective, the Chiefs are ranked where they usually are: In the TOP EIGHT (only 19.6 ppg allowed).

There's a lot of question marks in regards to this game. The two most important being (1) that KC's starting quarterback is OUT, and Nick Foles will be getting the call. There's no way I'm going to be spending hard-earned dollars on an OVER with a #2 QB making his first start of the season. (2) Jacksonville just shit-canned their offensive coordinator a few days ago. Greg Olsen is OUT… Nathaniel Hackett is IN. So how will that impact the Jaguars on offense on Sunday? From what I have researched, more RUSHING plays. Prior to the change, J'Ville was running the ball only 19 times per game (31%) and passing it 42 times per game (69%). We expect a much more balanced offense… probably in the range of a 60% passing / 40% running ratio.

At last look, Kansas City was a big home favorite of -9 to -10 points. According to 'game script', that means a low-scoring outcome (Big fav gets out to big lead and runs out the clock in the 2nd half).

1-9 O/U last two years: All AFC home favs of -8 > pts (KC) vs any non-div AFC opponent (Jax) when the OU line is < 48 points.

If Kansas City can hold Oakland, New Orleans, AND Indianapolis UNDER the Total (0-3 O/U in their last 3!), they should have no sweat with the dysfunctional J'Ville offense. And besides:

0-8 O/U since 2007: All teams w/ an OU line of pts (Chiefs).

We are well aware that the Jags have allowed 36 and 33 points in their last 2 games.

1-17 O/U since 2012! All .333 < non-division underdogs of pts in EACH of their last 2 games (Jags).

Jacksonville's last game was a Thursday division road affair.

5-18 O/U since 2012: All teams off a THURSDAY division road 'OVER' (Jags). In the last 2 years, these teams have gone 0-7 O/U when the OU line is 7 points AND an 'Over' (Jaguars) when the OU line is 44 or more points.

Tony George

Titans vs. Chargers
Play: Titans +4

Wow this looks like a layup taking the Chargers at home at less than a TD. Not so fast my friends, Tennessee ranked better on overall offense and defense than the Chargers, check it out! I like the running game of Tennessee here to control the pace of this game. Of course I am not sold on any type of aerial attack of Marcus Mariota trading stats with Philip Rivers, but the Chargers are beat up at WR this week, and their running game with Gordon is barely recognizable,

The Charger defense is average at best and neither head coach is a good head coach, and in fact Mike McCoy is in a race with Gus Bradley of Jacksonville on who is getting fired first this year as an NFL head coach. Did I mention the Titans won SU on the road as dogs at Miami and Detroit and lost by 7 to Houston on the road in a game they could have won. I have the better coach, better RB, Better defense getting points more than the crucial fall number of 3 here and the public hitting the Chargers as well, who are still licking their wounds off a very physical game against Denver last week in a loss, and a grueling OT game two weeks before that was another physical endurance game against Atlanta in an OT road win.

Philip Rivers is the best QB here no doubt, but this is not a strong home field advantage and Tennessee is a team that gives you 4 full quarters of football and RB DeMarco Murray playing like the best RB in the NFL, and I see them giving him the rock today and keeping the score more than respectable. Tennessee's biggest loss was by 9 points against Minnesota earlier this year, in a game they were leading for 3 quarters, I do not see a huge gap between these two teams.

Mike Anthony

Titans vs. Chargers
Play: Titans +4

Tennessee has their guys running behind their Oline with strength and confidence. Picking up 4.9 YDs per run. Tennessee makes the game really simple, and keeps it straight forward. Led by a secondary that doesn't give up a lot of big plays - they will contain the WRs of San Diego enough times to take care of business. It's hard to find something positive for this team here, they have talent, but cant seem to finish the job...ever. Even when their offense is getting the scoring done. Overall, they can't defend good enough to beat Tennessee and their hot offense that has been putting up 26+ in their last 4 games. Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games Tennessee gets the cover as the Chargers are not good as favorites.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Jets +3½ over MIAMI

An angry Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets have gone 2-0 after trying to bench him in Week 7. Another player left on the scrap heap was running back Matt Forte but he's quietly having a great season. Forte has scored four touchdowns during the Jets' two game winning streak. The Jets' run defense has been solid this season, as they are tied for the league lead, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That should serve them well here, as they head to Miami to face a Dolphins squad that has been very run heavy their last two games and if the Fish can’t run, they sure as hell can’t pass either.

The Dolphins had a ton of momentum before heading into the bye. The legend of running back Jay Ajayi only grew as the Fish sat idle. Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards in both of his starts this season and now all eyes are on him, as he tries to set a Super Bowl era record by becoming the first player to rush for over 200 yards in three straight games. The Dolphins have won two straight but those were as a plucky home dog. They are now laying points in a division game, which is a completely different role that they rarely thrive in. We have pointed out two distinct cases of two different teams that were forced to take huge momentum into its bye week and subsequently shit the bed upon returning. The first case was Philadelphia taking its 3-0 record into its bye before losing to Detroit. The second case was Minnesota taking its 5-0 record into its bye week before losing to Philadelphia. Now it’s the Dolphins turn after seemingly turning their season around with huge wins in back-to-back games against the then red-hot Steelers and Bills. Do you remember how pathetic the Dolphins looked in back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Tennessee less than a month ago? That’s the Miami team we expect to see here. It's time to sell.

LOS ANGELES +145 over Carolina

The Rams are a stingy defensive team that is coming off a bye. They are also a team that often comes up big when least expected to. The Rams are always good for some upsets each season and this looks like another one of those times. That said, this one is much more about fading the Panthers as opposed to backing the Rams.

Despite a big 30-20 win at home last week over the Cardinals, we are not changing our position on the Panthers. They overachieved last season and the talking heads that we're ready to crown them as the 'next big thing' have been chasing that 15-1 record from last year all year long. We preach that past results do not matter. What matters more is that Carolina is every bit as bad as its 2-5 start would suggest. They just happened to catch a flat Arizona team last week coming off a 5-quarter performance against Seattle in prime time. Carolina’s only other win this year came against San Francisco in a game they surrendered 27 points. Hell, these Panthers have even lost to Tampa Bay this year and if you have watched the Buccaneers play recently and you’re a Panthers fan, that last sentence might make you puke.

Cam Newton is getting hit often and occasionally a bit too low and is growing very frustrated about it. Last week was an uncharacteristic win over the Cards but let us point out that it was statistically the worst game of the year by Newton. Last year, the Panthers won so many games because they lead the league in turnover margin. This year, the Panthers are the sloppiest team in the league with 17 giveaways, which proves again how fortunate they were a season ago. Few teams in recent memory have been as overvalued as the Panthers are this season. They have done nothing to deserve being road chalk this season other than put together a good season a year ago. It's hard not to question what the Panthers are made of at this point because of so many poor performances and the grinding, physical challenge that Los Angeles presents is not exactly what the doctor ordered. This is a weak football team spotting road points but we’re not interested in the points. Rams’ outright get this call.

MINNESOTA -6 over Detroit

The Lions are a mess. The Matt Stafford MVP talk is completely crazy but it's not often the Lions get national attention for something positive, so we'll take this opportunity to capitalize on it. Detroit has won three out of four but all of those victories came at home. On the road this season, Detroit has been a low percentage play with just one win and one cover in four tries and no wins or covers in its last three. The Lions have also failed to cover in both of their division games this year. Their defense hasn't stopped anybody this season and they've made average quarterbacks like Brock Osweiler and Case Keenum look like All-Pros.

The Vikings were a popular choice on Monday night against the Bears and that game was another great example of why it's so dangerous to lay points on the road in a prime time division game. Minny was also the overwhelming choice in Philadelphia the week prior so they've let its many backers down two weeks in a row after starting the season 5-0. We often preach stepping in when most are jumping off, as this is a “what have you done for me lately”. When a team burns you, it's so hard to come back on them -- now times that by two. Add the fact offensive coordinator Norv Turner abruptly stepped down this week and this is the lowest we've seen Minnesota's stock since Teddy (Wobbly Balls) Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury. The loss of Turner is no big deal, as his big air offense didn't fit the Vikings system or personality anyway and it just might be a blessing. One of the big talking points this week is that the Vikings are banged up on the offensive line. While that's true, we're not going to dwell on it, as that information is not privy and injuries are always factored into the line.

The perception heading into Week 9 is that the Vikings are a totally one-sided squad that was exposed by the Bears. This might look like a big number for the Vikings to cover but it’s not. It’s small. This one looks like a mismatch and despite their two straight losses, the Vikes still have the top rated defense in the league while the Lions come into this one ranked 26th. Minnesota is also allowing the fewest points against with just 14.9 points per game through seven games. Meanwhile, the Lions are giving up 23.8 pts/game. The Vikings hype train has come to a sudden stop and if you listen closely you can actually hear the broken ankles of bandwagoners jumping ship. That's our cue to step in.

OAKLAND -1½ over Denver

A boatload of cash was riding on the Raiders last week as a small favorite in Tampa Bay. Those that bet the Raiders cashed their tickets but not before some beads of sweat dropped to the floor. Oakland must’ve had their backers pulling their hair out while screaming at the TV, as the Raiders committed more penalties in one game than any team in the history of this sport. Anyone that suffered through that victory was not only thrilled and relieved to cash that ticket, but they are not likely to put themselves through that suffering again this week. Surely, a disciplined team like the Broncos, with championship credentials, is not going to lose to an undisciplined team like the Raiders. Furthermore, Oakland still doesn’t have a win against a team with a winning record and they’ve come up short when tested, losing at home to both the Chiefs and Falcons. Derek Carr struggled when he faced Kansas City and the thinking is he’ll have a tough outing against Denver’s vaunted defense. The Broncos haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game all season. Indeed, everything points to a Denver win but we wouldn’t be so quick to jump on that bandwagon. Oakland’s penalty-fest was well documented this past week and now what we have is an overreaction to that. The fact that Oakland won, despite taking so many penalties, on the road no less, counts for something. This now becomes Oakland’s biggest game in a very long time. The Raiders are also difficult to stop with 28 points or more scored in four of their past five games.

Meanwhile, it’s not all talking chipmunks and singing candlesticks in Denver. Trevor Siemian is the second best QB in this game. He has been held to one TD throw or less in every game he’s played in but one. Last week, Siemian threw an interception that turned into a pick-six and lost a fumble. He's never been a game changer and the offense is not improving. The Broncos are winning in spite of Siemian, not because of him and there is a big difference there. The Broncos have been living a charmed life with an easy schedule that includes just one lousy road game since Week 4. That occurred in San Diego, where they Broncs lost 21-13 and looked horrible in doing so. Denver’s last road win was in Tampa Bay.

These Raiders have played five road games already and have not had trouble refreshing, recharging and getting serious about the prospect of beating Denver. Home field looms large and Oakland carries considerable positive momentum in the wake of last week's win and its 6-2 record. The question is whether or not the Raiders are legit. We shall see but we’re betting that the Broncos are very beatable.

Randall the Handle

THE BEST

Jaguars (2-5) at Chiefs (5-2)

Not eager to endorse the Chiefs in this price range but happy to fade these useless Jaguars as they continue to falter week in and week out. No seat is hotter than Gus Bradley’s at the moment, however not much figures to change as there are no valid excuses for Jacksonville’s poor play other than incompetence. Kansas City is on a three-game win streak, two of those contests coming on the road. While KC has significant injuries on offence, its defence has managed to stop Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck on current run so slowing down inadequate Blake Bortles shouldn’t be much of a challenge. KC can ill afford to look past a visitor such as this one as its decent 5-2 mark still has them sitting third in competitive AFC West. The Jags have just two wins in past 19 road games and there’s little evidence of that changing. TAKING: CHIEFS –7½

Eagles (4-3) at Giants (4-3)

Very comfortable taking points with defensively sound Eagles, especially against erratic division foe such as these Giants. Philadelphia is not only 3-1 versus spread when receiving points this season but are also 3-1 straight up in same games. The only blemish was an unjust one when Dallas scored a major in overtime last week, the Eagles +4 but losing by six. The Giants may be feeling a false sense of security after being off for two weeks after defeating the Rams over in England. That game saw Los Angeles QB Case Keenum at his unreliable best with four interceptions but the G-Men only able to manage a 17-10 triumph despite all of LA’s miscues. These two know each other all too well as the visitor has fared well in series, able to cover in 15 of the previous 22 encounters. We prefer the points offered, complemented by the better defensive squad. TAKING: EAGLES +2½

Cowboys (6-1) at Browns (0-8 )

Fair or not, Dak Prescott continues to audition for his job despite the impressive start to what appears to be a promising career. There isn’t a better opponent to showcase your skills against than these Browns. Cleveland has displayed some grit in this downtrodden season but as we pass the half way mark, its young, inexperienced defence is worn out after allowing 30+ points in five of its past six games, including 24 in a second-half collapse when hosting the Jets last week. The Cowboys have not lost since opening week, including a 3-0 road record both straight up and against the spread. The ’Boys like being on this roll. It makes Jerry Jones happy. They’ll continue to push. They have little standing in the way as Cleveland has yet to win. Dallas’ fourth-ranked offence should steamroll over a Browns defence that allows 29.8 points and 421.5 yards per game. TAKING: COWBOYS –7

THE REST

Jets (3-5) at Dolphins (3-4)

The Jets have won the past three meetings between these clubs by 18, 13 and 13 respectively. Don’t try to tell us that Miami is so much better now and that the Jets are so much worse. The Jets were saddled with a very difficult schedule to start the year and it ran true to form as this New York group were 1-5 before facing and defeating a pair that were more its speed, Baltimore and Cleveland. While Miami has corrected some things after an awful start, most notably its running game which has been ignited by Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins belong with the latter group more than with the first bunch. While we understand the Fins being favoured, we’re certainly not comfortable with them in that role. Fish have been chalk twice this season, failing to cover in both when requiring overtime against Cleveland and losing straight up to Titans. Little suggests a Miami cover here. TAKING: JETS +3½

Saints (3-4) at 49ers (1-6)

We know how defence lawyers feel when having to defend an accused who they feel is guilty. Making a case for the 49ers against the offensively dangerous Saints is comparable. San Fran’s bright spots are few, it’s quarterback situation horrendous and the team’s overall stats laughable. But what keeps bobbing to the surface in these situations is the pointspread. Sitting at New Orleans -3½ since openers, very few are backing the home team while an overwhelming majority are flocking to the windows to back the Saints. Despite such activity, the line hasn’t moved and that’s usually a warning sign. The Saints come off a big win over Seahawks and host champion Broncos next week. Flat spot? New Orleans also best when taking points (5-0 ATS) but losing straight up both times favoured this season. Five of San Francisco’s previous wins have come at home and they’ve had a week off to repair some issues. We rest our case. TAKING: 49ERS +4½

Panthers (2-5) at Rams (3-4)

Playing a team travelling east off four days rest is a whole lot different than flying west through three time zones to take on a rested host coming off its bye. That’s the unfortunate situation the Panthers find themselves in and to make matters worse, it is required that you spot some points during this difficult excursion. In three prior attempts at giving away road points, the Super Bowl runner ups have failed miserably, dropping all three games straight up. The Rams have typically done well after their rest compiling a 7-2 ATS in previous nine games following a bye week. Carolina’s 30th-ranked pass defence has become a target for opposing teams and even with L.A.’s anemic aerial game, the opportunity to stretch the field should benefit the Rams’ ground game. It’s easy to get lulled into the Panthers here but they don’t regain credibility off that favourable situation versus the Cardinals last week. TAKING: RAMS +3

Colts (3-5) at Packers (4-3)

No need to overthink this one. The Colts aren’t suddenly going to have a drastic improvement. Maybe their quarterback can play but he too appears out of sorts these days, perhaps from frustration from lack of talent around him. Now Andrew Luck must take to the road for the third time in four weeks and to the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field. Green Bay has lost only one game here this season, that one to high-flying Cowboys. The other three victories have come by an average of 10 points. It’s also the Packers last home game before heading to the road for next three weeks. In hot pursuit of Minnesota and with the passing game resuscitating, a long afternoon could be in store for this nimble visitor. Indy’s secondary is abysmal, ranking 31st in the league and that’s without facing any notable passers with the exception of Philip Rivers. Blowout wouldn’t surprise. TAKING: PACKERS –7

Broncos (6-2) at Raiders (6-2)

Classic offence versus defence matchup. Defence usually wins but we’re going to buck that trend here as Raiders are on fire, returning home after two road victories in Florida. While we respect Denver’s outstanding D, we have to believe that a red-hot Derek Carr can find enough points to secure a win as Denver’s offence may not be able to counter. Obviously, Oakland’s defence is a concern but knowing this opponent the way they do and with first place of the AFC West at stake, a tight contest could ensue. Looking back at last year’s meetings would support such a claim as the teams split wins in each other’s backyard by scores of 16-10 and 15-12 respectively. Let’s be reminded that much of Raiders poor defensive stats were accumulated early when facing Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Against four lesser offences, Oakland allowing average of just 19 points per game. Slight nod goes to revved up home side. TAKING: RAIDERS Even

King Creole

Jets +4

Speedee is still STEAMIN’ from last week. He thinks that we can ALL be in agreement that the Philadelphia Eagles (last week’s Top Dog) were indeed the RIGHT side last Sunday night in their game against the Dallas Cowboys. It just didn’t happen. That 5-point UNDERDOG was WINNING OUTRIGHT by 10 points early in the fourth quarter. Not only did they give up a late double-digit lead… but hehe they allowed Dallas to score a freakin’ TD in overtime. So they went from an easy OUTRIGHT dog win… to an ugly loss by 6 points.

We’re NOT going to get off that System that the Eagles were in last week. Despite the late loss, the situation has still been extremely strong. And the NY JETS are one of two teams that qualify in that same division underdog situation this week:

18-3 ATS since December of last season: All DIVISION underdogs playing off a SU and ATS win in their last game (JETS). These teams have gone a nearly PERFECT 11-1 ATS if they scored 31 or more points in that last win. And the Jets certainly did that (Beat the Browns 31-28 last week).

Speaking of the Browns: In the last four years, NFL underdogs off a SU ROAD win against the Cleveland Browns (JETS) have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS when the OU line is points off a SUATS road favorite win in which they scored AND allowed 28 > points (JETS) when the OU line is < 55 points.

Miami is in the tail end of a BIG-TIME home stand. They’ve already WON two home games in a row (vs BUF and vs Pit). But the ‘3rd time is NOT the charm’…. 5-17 ATS since 1980: All home favorites of < 9 points off 2 STRAIGHT home wins (Dolphins) versus any < .500 opponent (JETS). Since the 1997 season, these teams have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS…

We are well aware that Miami has two FANTASTIC rushing games in those last two home wins. 256 yards on the ground vs Buffalo… and 222 yards on the ground vs Pittsburgh. 0-6 ATS since 2006: All NFL favorites of < 9 points off BB SU wins in which they RUSHED for 200 or more yards (Miami) versus any < .666 opponent (NEW YORK).

Of course, all of us South Florida folks already know this. But perhaps you don’t. WHO’s the worst home favorite in ALL of the NFL? That would be the MIAMI DOLPHINS. In the last 12 years, Miami has gone a pathetic 16-42 ATS (28%) as home favorites. That includes 7-30 ATS (19%) versus all LOSING (< .500) opponents like the Jets. AND… that includes 1-9 ATS (only 10%) in the last four seasons. Miami has been a great underdog, YES…. but a horrific and unprofitable FAVORITE!

Wunderdog

Indianapolis @ Green Bay
Pick: Indianapolis +7.5

The Packers have had trouble on offense this season with Aaron Rodgers reaching 300 yards only once thus far in seven games. Just when it appeared to get back on track, the defense was torched by Matt Ryan and the Falcons in a 33-32 loss on Sunday. Ryan was nearly perfect, completing 28-of-35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The Falcons outgained the Packers 367-331 and Ryan hit Mohamed Sanu in the end zone with an 11-yard touchdown pass with just 31 seconds remaining to tie the game before the extra point won it. Green Bay is ranked 20th in the league in total offense yards per game (342.3) while Indianapolis is #13 (360.5). The Packers were counting on Eddie Lacy to bounce back from a disappointing season, but he is on injured reserve with an ankle injury. The Colts have split their last four games, including a fourth quarter meltdown against Houston. Andrew Luck has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 16 touchdowns and five interceptions and should have success in this game. Indy is off an embarrassing performance vs. Kansas City in which the Colts were outgained by 145 yards and lost by 16 points. That is affecting this line and I like Indy's chances of bouncing back. Over the past two and a half seasons, the Colts are 8-1 ATS after a game in which they were outgained by 100+ yards. Chuck Pagano's teams have always gotten better as the season goes along as the Colts are 24-13 ATS under Pagano after the first month of the season. Take the points and play the Colts.

Dave Cokin

New Orleans at San Francisco
Play: New Orleans -4

New Orleans is very flawed entry. The Saints have a very prolific offense, but yet again the team is getting hamstrung by a shoddy defense. New Orleans is also not noted for being much of a road team. That makes laying any kind of number with them a bit dicey, even against a bad opponent. Nevertheless, I’m willing to spot some points here with the Saints.

This is pretty clearly a San Francisco fade. The 49ers are a total mess, starting at the very top with what is an increasingly unpopular ownership. There was a time when this was the absolute model franchise in the NFL. But those days are long gone and I don’t think it’s a stretch to offer that aside from the eternally awful Browns, the 49ers might well be the most easy to poke fun at franchise in the entire league.

The 49ers started the season off with a bang, shutting out the Rams 28-0. They have subsequently lost six straight and the closest they’ve come is a touchdown loss at home to Dallas. San Francisco has been outscored by an ugly 103 points in the current 0-6 skid.

I can’t argue with those who might feel this game represents the best chance the 49ers could have to win a game the rest of the way. But I won’t be shocked if San Francisco ends up losing ’em all, and I would absolutely be surprised if they end up with more than three wins overall.

The sieve-like New Orleans defense basically can’t stop anyone, so this is a game where even the impotent SF offense might produce a few scores. But what was supposed to be the strength of the 49ers sure hasn’t been, as they’re actually only marginally better than the Saints on defense. On offense, it’s a blowout on the stats favoring the road team, and I would rate the special teams comparison about even.

I think this is a huge game for New Orleans. A win gets them to 4-4, and they will have life not only in their division, but as a potential wild card. But a loss drops them to 3-5 and with Denver and Carolina on deck, 3-7 becomes a realistic possibility. This team can forget about playing past the regular season finale if that happens, so this is one they assuredly have circled as a must win. I think it’s also a will win, and I’m going ahead and giving the points with the Saints.

Andy Iskoe

Jets +4

Miami is off its Bye which may have come at the worst time following back to back wins in which the Dolphins ran for over 200 yards. The time off can be a momentum stopper as we've seen several times already this season. The Jets have also won back to back games following a very difficult schedule in their first 6 games which was expected to have the Jets pretty much where they are at the season's midpoint. The Jets were 10-6 last season and their only games remaining this season against teams currently with winning records are the pair against New England. The Jets swept Miami last season in coach Bowles first season as coach. The Jets are allowing an NFL los 3.3 yards per rush which goes up against Miami's recent strength. The Jets' defensive weakness has been against the pass but the Dolphins rank in the bottom third of the NFL in passing offense. The Jets already have a road Divisional win at Buffalo and enter the favorable portion of their schedule and their overall defensive performance has improved over the past month to levels expected before the start of the season.