Brandon Lee
Lions vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings -6
It's amazing how quickly the perception of a team can change in the NFL. Just a few weeks ago the Vikings were being crowned the team to beat in the NFC. After losing 10-21 at the Eagles and 10-20 at Chicago, no one wants anything to do with this team. Minnesota cost a lot of people in their failed cover against the Bears on Monday Night Football last week. The key thing to remember is both of those defeats came on the road and this Vikings defense is still elite. Minnesota has played it's best football at home and I expect an all out effort here against the Lions to avoid a 3rd straight loss. Minnesota's 4th ranked pass defense should cause all kind of problems for Detroit's pass happy offense and the Lions rank in the bottom half of the league defensively against both the run and the pass. The Vikings offense should be able to get something going here and likely won't need a lot to win here by at least a touchdown.
Scott Spreitzer
Panthers vs. Rams
Play: Panthers -3
Casual fans are somewhat surprised when they find out Carolina ranks 5th in the NFL in yards rushing per game and 7th in total yards per game. The biggest problem had been pass defense and points allowed per contest. But we saw the Panthers play much better on the defensive side of the football last week as players begin to get healthy. Carolina held the Cardinals to 2.4 yards per carry, just in time to take on a Rams' offense that's 30th in points scored per game and total yards per game. Meanwhile, the Rams' defense is middle of the pack for the most part, and gets little support even when playing well. Carolina enters on a 30-19 ATS run under Rivera when facing teams that allow a completion percentage above 60% and the Rams' defense fits the bill. The week-7 bye week was big for Carolina a couple weeks ago and I believe they make it 2-0 since being idle.
Chip Chirimbes
Cowboys vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8½
Well, we are at the half-way point in the season and the Browns have yet to win a game (0-8 ) and the Cowboys (6-1) are running away from everyone in their division. And running is the key with Ezekiel Elliott and their offense works with rookie Dak Prescott heading the offense. Dallas was very fortunate to escape with an overtime won against the Eagles last Sunday and next week they have Pittsburgh on deck. I believe Dallas can't help but look ahead at the Steelers and sleep walk through this contest.
Bryan Leonard
Broncos vs. Raiders
Play: Broncos +1
In a win and cover situation we would rather trust the veteran Denver defense over the young Oakland offense. Denver showed last year it has the ability to step up in big games, and this certainly is a huge contest with Oakland an up and coming team. Denver is 2-1 SU on the road, winning the yards per play battle in all three games. There is also the motivation factor for Denver who has lost the last three games against the Raiders.
Oakland has done its best work this season on the road, and is back at home after spending the past two weeks in Florida. The Raiders have dropped 2 of 3 in the Coliseum losing the ypp battle by 0.9, 2.6 and 1.8.
We feel despite the Raiders road success that this team is a bit overrated at the moment. We will back defense over offense on Sunday and back the visitor.
Bill Biles
Lions vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings -6
Coming off back to back road losses the Vikings will be glad to be home. They are being doubted as not being the team we thought they were. Look for the Vikings to bounce back and dominant this one. The defense will shut down the Lions who have no running game and win this one by double digits.
Marc Lawrence
Cowboys vs. Browns
Play: Browns +7
Edges - Browns: QB Josh McCown 5-1 ATS as a dog off a loss versus a foe off BB wins. Cowboys: 2-9 ATS as non-division road favorites of 7 or more points; and 0-3 ATS last three as favorites versus AFC North opponents. With Browns head coach Hue Jackson 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS against opponents coming off a home game, and Dallas in a major letdown role off a home overtime win over division rival Philadelphia, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
John Ryan
Colts vs. Packers
Play: Colts +7½
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 over the last 10 seasons good for 76.3% winners. Play on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indy is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game since 1992 and they are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play since 1992. Pagano is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return as the coach of the Colts. Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 9. Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Colts are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight up loss. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Green Bay was without three key members of the secondary (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) while getting burned by Matt Ryan and Atlanta's passing attack last week. I expect the same this week while pass rusher Clay Matthews is questionable and will struggle to exploit the thin Indianapolis offensive line.
Jimmy Boyd
Jets vs. Dolphins
Play: Jets +4
I look for the public to come in heavy on the Dolphins here. I believe it’s created some decent value on New York catching more than a field goal. I just don’t think this Jets team is as bad as people think. At the same time, I’m don’t think Miami is playing as well as others.
The fact that the Jets started out 1-5 isn’t all that surprising to me. They played arguably the toughest schedule in the league over their first 6 games. They played 5 teams who were in the playoffs last year, 3 of which came on the road. The other was a division road game against Buffalo on the road. It’s almost as if everyone has forgot this team went 10-6 last year.
Miami has an identical 3-wins. The reason the public is higher on them, is they beat the Steelers 30-15 at home. Not taking anything away from them, but Roethlisberger got hurt early in that game. Keep in mind they needed overtime to beat the Browns and lost by 15 at Cincinnati and 13 to the Titans at home.
The Dolphins running game has really came alive in their last two games. It’s helped cover up their inability to throw the ball because of a weak offensive line. Getting the running game going against the Jets isn’t going to be easy. New York leads the league against the run, allowing just 74.0 ypg and are allowing just 3.3 ypc. With all the talk about Ajayi, I think we see a motivated Jets defense come in looking to make a statement in this one.
I also don’t trust the Miami defense in this one. The big problem for New York’s offense has been turnovers. They Dolphins have just two takeaways in their last 4 games.
You also have to factor in the Jets have owned this series. They swept the season series last year and have won 3 straight overall. Not to mention they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 visits to Miami.
The Dolphins are also just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games off a win by 3 points or less. They are also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after outrushing their previous opponent by 150 or more yards.
Brandon Shively
Jets vs. Dolphins
Play: Jets +3½
The Dolphins have won two consecutive games and I think the bye week came at the wrong time for them as some of that momentum can be taken away. The Jets come into this game winners of two straight and go from being a 2.5 point favorite in their previous two games to an underdog of more than a field goal.
Handicapping this game, I asked myself are the Jets as bad as their record indicates and are the Dolphins as good as their last two wins indicate. My answer to both was ‘No’ and that leads me to playing the Jets here. My analysis here is not as in-depth as usual, but sometimes there is no need to overthink or over analyze.
Recent history: The Jets are 5-0 ATS the last five meetings against the Dolphins. They have won the last 3 meetings in Miami. This have been a lot of close games played also making the 3.5 points the play here. With the Jets now 10-2 ATS the L12 road meetings with those 2 non-covers being losses of only 2 and 4 points, I think the Jets are in position to pull of the win here and I will be taking them +3.5
Rob Vinciletti
Steelers vs. Ravens
Play: Steelers -2
The Steelers may have big Ben back and are 13-3 ats after allowing 27+ points. The Ravens are 1-10 ats home off a non division games. For the power system in this game We want to also play against home favorites with rest off back to back losses the last of which was a non division game vs a team with a .250 or higher win percentage. With the Ravens 2-9 ats as favs in the first of back to back division games we will Play on Pittsburgh.
DAVE COKIN
JAZZ AT KNICKS
PLAY: JAZZ -1
I like the spot here. Utah got stomped at home on Friday by the Spurs. That was not unexpected to me as they had just gone into San Antonio and pretty much buried the Spurs. Good payback spot for a high end team, and San Antone in revenge was play on material. But the fact Utah got buried should have them looking to rebound here.
The Knicks, meanwhile, were a very impressive winner at Chicago on Friday, and that was a huge game for the New Yorkers. If you watched the game, there was no doubt at all Noah and Rose really wanted to play well against their former team, and the two were all big smiles and more when they left the court together late in the game.
I’m not big on guessing at letdowns, at least not in the pros where emotions aren’t as volatile as they are at the college level. But this has a chance to be a somewhat flat spot for the home team. Additionally, I made this number Utah -2 just on the math, so there’s no offset as far as that goes. I’ll tab the Jazz to start the day off right.
Bruce Marshall
Jets +4
We've been burned a few times this season by the Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose Mr. Hyde act (11 picks) is apt to resurface at any moment. And one must acknowledge the recent Miami revival and the Jim Brown act of RB Jay Ajayi, over 200 YR in each of the Dolphins' last two wins! But, in defense of N.Y., its early-season slate was front-loaded with tough foes. And the Jets have made a mild recovery since being presented with the beatable Ravens and Browns the past two weeks. Series trends (N.Y. has covered last 5, and 8 of 10) in Jets' corner.
Sleepyj
Giants -145
I trust the Giants to get a win here at home coming off a bye week...Philly had a very early bye week, so they might be a bit sluggish as we have approached mid season now....Philly had a bunch of hype starting out fast this season...Since then they looked average, but not bad...I just feel the Giants coming off two wins in a row and a bye week will have it together...Philly secondary IMO is the big weakness for them...Eli has plenty of targets to spread the Eagles out...That should open up some of the running game for the Giants which has been very sluggish...Eagles offense isn't bad, but they are far from good...WR drop passes and the running game at times can struggle..It really comes down to how good Wentz is...If he can sit in the pocket and pick his spots, he can be effective...Giants defense is the greatest, but coming in fresh should give them some fresh legs late in the game..I don't feel good laying points with the Giants, but I feel they can pull a win out at home.
John Ryan
New Orleans vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco +5.5
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 2005. Play on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Saints are a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons;
Fundamental Discussion Points: Admittedly, this is a ‘surprise’ grade from our SIM Algorithm, but over the 21 years we have provided profitable seasons to our clients, this is a matchup situation we have seen. The 49ers are unraveled, and another college coach appears headed for the unemployment line. Drew Brees now has his team just 1-game behind in the playoff run, which if he achieved with this team, would only add to his first ballot HOF resume. The Saints offense ranks second in scoring at 28.7 PPG and have shown solid consistency averaging 29 PPG over their last three games. However, there is a significant drop-off when playing on the road where they are averaging only 23 PPG. Both SF and NO have the two worst defenses in the league. However, we get another home-away twist. SF allows 42 PPG in road games and just 22.8 PPG in home tilts. We have found that looking at the metric yards-per-point provides an even greater depth and meaning to any matchup. Here again shows clearly how much better the SF defense has been in home games. They have posted a meager 11.8 yards-per-point allowed in road games. This means that an opponent need only gain 11.8 yards to get 1 point on the scoreboard. By comparison, the Patriots defense ranks best posting a 21.5 yards needed to score 1 point. However, SF has posted 15.5 YPP allowed in home games.
We are not going to say for a second that HC Chip Kelly will be the motivator behind a solid performance this afternoon. Yet, these are PRO athletes, who have a competitive fire and pride that is a fundamental cornerstone to them achieving this elite pro status. So, we do expect the 49ers to say ‘enough is enough’ and put out a good product on the field today.
Big Al
Carolina vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles
The Panthers snapped their four-game losing streak last week, but are still an awful 2-5 on the season. And it’s their defense which has been the primary culprit in their surprisingly bad season. The Panthers have given up a whopping 28 points per game, which is tied for 6th-worst in the league. In contrast, the Rams’ defense has given up just 22 points per game, and ranks in the top half. And one of the things I love to do is play on underdogs with a much better defense than their opponent, and especially if I can get that underdog off a straight-up and against-the-spread loss, which will often help to give a team extra motivation. Since 1980, at Game 5 forward, underdogs whose defense give up at least 5 less points than their opponent’s defense have gone 124-86 ATS, 59 percent, if they’re also off a SU/ATS loss. And if our underdog is at home, those numbers improve to 64.2% ATS.