Larry Ness
Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The 2-5 Jags and 5-2 Chiefs meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. No one's quite sure what happened to KC's Alex Smith last Sunday (concussion or not?) but either way, he's being held out of Sunday's game. Nick Foles played well in relief of Smith last Sunday against the Colts, completing 16 of 22 for 223 yards with two TD passes, no interceptions and a QB rating of 135.2. He'll get the start on Sunday.
Jacksonville head coach Gus Bailey fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson two days after losing 36-22 beating at Tennessee in a Week 8 Thursday night game Olson was replaced by QBs coach Nathanial Hackett, the son of former Chiefs offensive coordinator from the 1990s Paul Hackett. Bradley is under mounting pressure, as he's 14-41 as head coach of the Jaguars and his teams are 5-22 on the road the last three-plus seasons.
QB Blake Bortles had a strong season for the struggling Jags last year (4,428 yards with 35 TDs and 18 INTs) but things haven't gone as well in 2016. Concerns about his mechanics prompted a call for help from Adam Dedeaux, who is part of the 3DQB Academy in southern California that's run by former major league pitcher and now quarterback Guru Tom House. "Hopefully, we'll tighten some things up and get back to where I was throwing the ball with efficiency," said Bortles. "When you struggle with what you're supposed to do all the time, you try to fix it as quickly as possible rather than let it get worse."
Maybe Dedeaux can help Bortles but he can't help the team's pathetic running game, averaging a pathetic 72.6 YPG (30th) or a defense allowing 28.0 PPG (26th). KC would rather have Smith at QB than Foles, as the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games under Smith. Yes, Foles is much more prone to turning it over than Smith but note that the Jacksonville defense hasn't forced a single turnover in its last three games. Foles has experience in Andy Reid’s offense from their time together in Philadelphia and I'm going to lay the points with the Chiefs.
Jim Feist
Colts at Packers
Pick: Over
Both teams have ace quarterbacks and the Colts come to town with a terrible defense. The Indianapolis pass defense ranks 31st in the league with an average of 288 yards allowed. The secondary figures to be at less than full strength again on Sunday, with safety Mike Adams (groin) and cornerback Vontae Davis (concussion) sitting out Wednesday's practice. The Over is 20-8 in the Colts last 28 road games. Green Bay, which can match injury lists with any team in the league, was without three key members of the secondary (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) while getting burned by Matt Ryan and Atlanta's passing attack last week. And the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Dr Bob
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
Blake Bortles is the practice squad superstar throwing for 337 yards and 3 TDs last week in a blowout…loss to the Titans last Thursday night. While B-squared’s numbers are a facade, what is for real is the Jaguars defense which is holding opponents to under 44% success rate offensively and a 7th ranked yards per play allowed of 5.2 yards. On the other side of the ball the Chiefs new QB1, Nick Foles, looked great in spot duty last week, going 16-22 for 233 and 2 TDs. With Alex Smith in concussion protocol, the Chiefs may find that Foles is an upgrade at the QB position as he is someone who takes more sacks, but also more deep shots. Foles grades out slightly below Smith because of his terrible time with the Rams (in which he averaged 5.6 NYPP), although in the right system he has produced numbers that do far exceed Captain Checkdowns (6.9 NYPP for Foles vs. 6.2 NYPP for Smith). The Chiefs are 5-2 and the Jags are 2-5 and a big part is not the peripheral stats each team has put up, but the turnover differential as the Chiefs are +9 and Jags -8.
In what was initially a Jags Best Bet at +9.5 against Alex Smith, but with the Chiefs getting a possible upgrade in QB with Nick Foles and the line shrinking to +7.5 the advanced stats model now makes the Jaguars (+7.5) a Strong Opinion and UNDER (44) a Strong Opinion.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
All indications are that the Brownies will return to Kessler as QB1, who has been released from concussion protocol and is practicing. Although the Browns are winless not because of the QB position, but because of the defense that is 31st in the league (adjusted for defense), giving up 6.4 yards per play and a 48.6% success rate. What has been glossed over in the Cowboys 6-1 start is a defense that ranks 20th overall and 22nd against the run. Cleveland actually has the 2nd ranked rushing attack from a YPR perspective and Dallas is not too far behind at 5th. Look for Cleveland and Dallas to both go to the ground to keep bad defenses off the field. The advanced stats model sees value on the Under, so UNDER (48.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Browns (+7.5).
Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers
The young Titans led by the Polynesian Pride could get to above .500 in a weak AFC South with a win over the Bolts on Sunday. Marcus Mariotta is leading an offense that is 7th in adjusted success rate, managing the down and distances with ease. While the Titans have only averaged 22.8 points per game, a -3 fumble differential has led to them scoring 3 points fewer than their peripheral metrics indicate they would. In addition, blowout wins against the Dolphins, Browns and Jags have actually worked against their defensive metrics as in all of those games, plenty of garbage time points were scored. If the Titans are able to run the ball successfully against a San Diego defense that ranks 27th in opponent rushing success allowed, then expect the clock to tick down in a close contest. The advanced stats model shows value on the road dog and under so Titans (+4.5) is a Strong Opinion and lean to UNDER (47).
Dwayne Bryant
Broncos at Raiders
Play: Under 44
The Broncos will utilize their usual game plan of running the football and leaning on their great defense. Oakland's defense leaves much to be desired, but they managed to limit Denver in last season's two meetings. The Raiders defense cannot limit the better offenses in the league, but they should be able to slow this Denver offense.
Last season's two meetings were both low-scoring affairs. The first meeting was a 16-10 Broncos win in Oakland. There were only two touchdowns scored in that one, and one of those was a 74-yard interception return by Denver's Chris Harris. Neither team reached 300 total yards of offense in that one.
The second meeting between those two AFC West rivals was a 15-12 Raiders win in Denver. Again, there were only two TDs scored, and there were a combined total of 436 total offensive yards.
With Trevor Siemian now the Denver QB, Oakland should be able to once again limit the Broncos offense. And that Denver defense, led by a fierce pass rush, should be able to slow the Raiders aerial attack.
Mike Rose
Saints vs. 49ers
Play: Over 52
The New Orleans Saints will hit the road for the fourth time looking to secure the team’s fourth win in the last five tries after getting out to an 0-3 start. The San Francisco 49ers will be out to stop the bleeding fresh out of their bye in hopes of snapping a six game overall losing streak and three game home losing streak. All kinds of points could hit the board in Week 9 with the league’s two worst scoring defenses squaring off against one another.
Though the Niners rank No. 7 defending the pass, I think that has more to do with them ranking dead last against the run. Why pass the ball when you can run the rock right down your opponent’s throat? The Saints don’t possess a good rushing attack. Mark Ingram has been an enormous fantasy bust, and was benched last week after fumbling on his third carry. With San Fran conceding 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, look for Brees to look to the air when it matters most.
With San Francisco having nearly two weeks to work on its passing game with Kaepernick taking all the practice snaps, I believe we see a much better passing game in this one. This will likely be a back and forth affair should San Fran actually show up in the second half. Points should come in bunches. While New Orleans has seen its last two overall and two of its three road games play to low scorers, that won’t prevent me from hitting the over in this tilt.
Buster Sports
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Play: Pittsburgh +2.5
The Ravens and the Steelers are both coming off the bye week and it looks from all reports that BIg Ben will play on Sunday. This game is HUGE for both clubs as the AFC NORTH looks like it will be a dog fight right till the end of the season between these two clubs and the Cincinnati Bengals. After winning their first 3 games of the year the Ravens have dropped their last 4 and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time for them. The problem for the Ravens is that Joe Flacco is not 100% healthy with some shoulder problems. Flacco has 5 TD's to 6 INT on the year and just hasn't looked like the same QB to us all year. We like the Pittsburgh defense in this matchup. The Pittsburgh D has had some trouble stopping the run the last couple of games but going up against one of the worse rushing offenses in the league (last game 11 yards vs the Jets) we see them be able to get the upper hand which will help their passing D as well. Even if Roethlisberger has a set back Landry Jones is more than capable, after seeing action in their last game. With Le'Veon Bell back and looking great and then having the superstar WR Antonio Brown to throw to, we believe the Steelers have the advantage on the home side today. Backing our selection is the fact that the Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and the fact that the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Oskeim Sports
Dallas at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland +7
Some of the best investments are the hardest ones to make because you're deriving value by going against popular opinion. By taking the road less traveled, contrarian sports bettors are able to capitalize on market overreactions and inefficiencies. Our decision to back the hapless Cleveland Browns on Sunday is a perfect example of the investment principle of "buying low and selling high."
We are buying low with the Browns, who remain winless on the season (0-8 ) and have failed to cover the point spread in all but two of their games. We are selling high with the Cowboys, who have won and covered six consecutive games, including upsets over Washington, Cincinnati and Green Bay. The Cowboys' value in the betting market has never been higher and, as a result, the oddsmakers are going to force Dallas investors to pay a premium to back America's Team.
Likewise, Cleveland's value in the marketplace has never been lower after losing its eighth straight game to the Jets last week (also failed to cover the spread). Since 2005, NFL teams that have failed to meet the market's expectations (i.e. point spread) at least 70% of the time are a 53.2% ATS winning proposition, including a 55.8% winning investment from Week Six out (see Sports Insights).
And, if our 'play on' team is matched up against an opponent that has covered the point spread in at least 50% of its games, the above-referenced angle improves to 59.4% ATS. Let's also note that NFL home underdogs of 7+ points are a profitable 126-97 (56.5%), which makes sense because of the premium oddsmakers are placing on these against-the-spread darlings.
David Banks
Denver @ Oakland
Pick: Denver +1
For most of the past five seasons, the Denver Broncos have owned the Oakland Raiders. That is beginning to change. Behind five sacks from Khalil Mack, the Raiders beat the Broncos at the end of last season, 15-12, and are now 6-2 and ready to take command of the AFC West Division on Sunday night. Head coach Jack Del Rio gets the advantage of playing at home as the Raiders try and turn the tide in one of the NFL’s most heated rivalries.
Raiders QB Derek Carr is playing at an extremely high level and became just the third player in the history of the NFL to record 500 passing yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions in a single game in last week’s 30-24 win over Tampa Bay. Carr leads an Oakland offense that is fifth in the league in total offense averaging 401.1 yards per game. The Broncos do have the NFL’s best pass defense. Denver gives opponents just 183.9 passing yards per game so far this season.
What the Raiders will need Sunday night is to defend the Denver offense. The defense has been improving, but Oakland still gives up over 25 points per game, which is 22nd out of 32 teams. Even worse, the Raiders are 31st in total yards allowed per game, 410.4. Only the Cleveland Browns have a poorer defense. The task for Oakland’s defense might be easier than expected. Denver lost RB C.J. Anderson for the season after beating Houston and managed just 57 yards rushing in last week’s win over San Diego.
Harry Bondi
Jacksonville / Kansas City Under 44.5
Even with Nick Foles at QB. Reid’s conservative nature on both sides of the ball, especially when the Chiefs are ahead in the second half, has led to his team going under in five out of seven games this season. When listed as the favorite, KC is 1-5 to the under this year and 9-17 (65%) the last three years. What’s more, KC has gone under in 12 of its last 18 home games. With the Jaguars’ fading offense failing to top 22 points in five of their last six games, and the Chiefs allowing under 20 points per game, we’ll call for these KC trends to continue here today. Go under.
Matt Fargo
Saints vs. 49ers
Play:49ers +4½
New Orleans is the biggest public play on the Sunday NFL board as fading the 49ers has been very profitable over their last six games as they have failed to cover any of those. The line has risen accordingly as the Saints opened as a three-point favorite but that number is now north of four so we will take advantage of the public line shift. San Francisco was expected to struggle again this season and it has lived up to those expectations but we should see a bigger effort today. The 49ers are coming off their bye week and were given the entire week off which is probably a smart move by head coach Chip Kelly. They can take advantage of a porous Saints defense and that will be in the hands of quarterback Colin Kaepernick, or more likely the feet. In the past two games, he has run for 66 yards on eight carries against Buffalo and 84 yards on nine attempts against Tampa Bay so he could be in for a big day but still needs to be able to air it out. The Saints have won three of their last four games but those wins have come by five points or less and the lone road win came by a point despite getting outgained by the Chargers. They have notoriously struggled on the road and going back, the Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record.
Tony Karpinski
Jets vs. Dolphins
Play: Under 44
Miami RB Jay Ajayi can be very physical and can make teams pay when he hits his holes. Miami's DEs can get to the edge on defense, having corralled over 8 sacks on the year so far, which will be a problem for the tackles of the Jets.
N.Y. has lacked emotion and strength on the offensive side of the ball - their WRs are good, but have shown signs of struggling with physical teams. And worst part is that the Jets struggle moving the ball in the air - which is the way to beat Miami.
Nelly
Jacksonville Jaguars + over Kansas City Chiefs
When Nick Foles was released in August the Chiefs were a bit of a surprise to pick him up. They are glad they did with Foles very effective in relief last week in leading the Chiefs to a third straight win. Alex Smith will be in the concussion protocol and the backfield is also filled with injuries. The Chiefs have actually been a much worse statistical defense than Jacksonville but you wouldn't have thought that last week the Jaguars blown out at Tennessee. At 2-5 another lost season seems inevitable in Jacksonville and shaking up the offensive staff this week seems like a last resort for Gus Bradley with a 14-41 career record. The Chiefs don't look like a 5-2 team statistically and two of three home wins came by slim margins. This is a do-or-die game for the Jaguars team in another rocky season but don't trust Foles to play as knowing he'll be starting and the run defense for Jacksonville should force the Chiefs into unfavorable passing situations. Jacksonville has been a shaky performer on the road but the Chiefs are on a 12-27-2 ATS run as a home favorite.
Vegas Butcher
JAX @ KC -7.5
This line opened at -8.5 KC and got downgraded by 1 point after it was confirmed that Alex Smith and Spencer Ware would be out for this game. In addition, Maclin is banged up with only a limited practice in on Friday and Parker Ehinger, a pretty solid guard, was lost for the season with an ACL injury last week. This is an overall major downgrade for this Chiefs offense. One interesting thought is that people believe that West isn’t much of a downgrade from Ware. Well, West has registered a -44% DVOA on 33 carries so far this year. That basically means that out of all the runners, he’s 44% less efficient than ‘average’, when adjusted for strength of opponent. By comparison, Ware is -6% DVOA, or 21st ranked RB in terms of efficiency, on 102 carries. This mark is not great either, but as a team, KC is -23% DVOA in rushing ability, or 29th in the league. Clearly this has been a terrible running offense this year, and you could argue that Ware has exceeded in comparison to the team’s ability as whole. West is a major downgrade though. Another interesting factor is that Jags, who rank 13th against the pass overall, are also #1 defensively against the RB in the passing game. Posluszny, Smith, and Jack have been excellent in coverage this year, and I don’t expect West to be as big of a weapon out of the backfield as Ware. Bottom line is this, all these injuries for the Chiefs are worth more than 1-point in the spread from my standpoint. Jacksonville had 10-days to rest and prepare for this one. They’re coming off an absolutely deplorable showing on TNF, in front of a national audience. They proceeded to fire their offensive coordinator and supposedly Bortles flew in a QB-whisperer to help him improve his throwing motion. I don’t know if any of this will help (KC ranks 23rd against the run defensively and Jags supposedly want to kick start their running game), but what I do know is that the effort will be there, and I expect the Jags to play much better than they have in the last few weeks. Chiefs off 3-straight wins, but this is a major ‘let down’ spot for this team. (By the way, off-season spread was -7 KC and my model has this one at -6.7 KC for this game…adjusted for the injuries) Lean: JAX +7.5
DET @ MIN -6
Short week for the Vikings, after a loss @ Chicago on MNF. Actually, this team has now lost two in a row in a very one-sided fashion. Can they get things back on track at home against a divisional opponent? Lions aren’t very good on the road, going 1-3 SU and ATS. And it’s not like they’ve faced very tough competition overall away from home: @ IND, @ GB, @ CHI, @ HOU. The issue with the Vikings is of course one of the worst O-lines in the league. They’ll be without Alex Boone (their best guard) and Zac Kerin his backup. Detroit is actually 13th in pass-rush, as Ansah’s return a few weeks back strengthened that unit. Ngata was supposed to miss 3 weeks, and it’s been 3 weeks since he went down injured. He was limited in practice but I’d expect him to return this week. The big question mark is Slay, though he was also limited in practice and I think he plays. He’s a stud and his presence is huge for this defense. With him, Detroit ranks 32nd defensively. Just imagine what it is without him in the lineup Now for the other side, Vikings will be without Eric Kendricks this week. That’s a huge loss as he’s their best, and only decent LB. Minnesota D is 5th overall and 4th against the pass, but they have one fairly significant flaw: they’re 23rd in the pass-game against running backs. Without Kendricks, expect the scenario to be even worse, as Barr and Greenway are absolutely awful in coverage. While the Lions have no run game, Theo Riddick is one of the most dynamic pass-catching RB’s in the league. This is a really significant advantage that the Lions will have on offense in this matchup. Overall, I think you have to look towards taking the underdog in this divisional matchup. Remember, these teams know each other well, so they’ll game-plan to exploit each other’s weaknesses. This 25th ranked Vikings offense has really been struggling, and though they’re facing the worst defense in the league, Detroit is getting some key players back for this one. I expect a close contest. Lean: DET +6
PHI @ NYG -2.5
Off their BYE week, the Giants have had ample time to prepare for this one. This one is interesting, because so far this season Philly has shown to be a better team. The spread indicates that these two are ‘even’. Hmmm… One issues is that Wentz has been ‘regressing’ as to be expected for a rookie. In his last two games he’s failed to average even 5 PY/A, and his last three, his QBR was under 50. The Giants rank 10th defensively and 9th against the pass. Their pass-rush is only 30th (which is surprising) but they have two excellent pass-rushers in JPP and Vernon, so maybe a BYE week helped this team figure out a better way to scheme their attack on the quarterback going forward. The secondary is excellent with Jenkins, Rodgers-Cromartie, Adams, and Collins. Even rookie CB Apple is playing pretty well. Philly’s 23rd ranked offense could struggle, especially with a rookie QB playing in another hostile environment. Speaking of ‘hostile’, last week was a big let-down for the Eagles. They were up by 10 points in the 4th quarter, but failed to preserve the lead, ultimately losing in OT. The defense played well overall, but by the end of the game they looked worn out. Now they have to go on the road again and face off against a fresh team, that had 2 weeks to prepare. I doubt we’ll see a similar defensive effort out of Philly this week. To make matters more difficult, Giants sport a #3 ranked O-line against the pass-rush. If the O-line holds up and neutralizes this Philly #1 ranked pass-rush, Manning should be able to pick apart this overrated Eagles secondary. I like the spot for the Giants here. Lean: NYG -2.5
DAL @ CLE +7
A home underdog of 7+ points, and typically you should try to see a way to back them (unless that team is facing the Pats . My model has this one at CLE +6, so that’s a good start already. Defensively, Cleveland is getting Haden back. But more importantly, the team traded for Jamie Collins, a top-10 LB in this league. Guess the Pats didn’t want to pay him this off-season. That’s irrelevant for our purposes. What’s important is that this 30th ranked Cleveland run-D might be in better shape in slowing down Elliot with Collins in the lineup. Offensively, Cleveland is getting Kessler back, and more importantly, Coleman, their 1st round draft pick. With McCown healthy, there’s no risk in case Kessler gets reinjured. Kessler has been decent actually, playing as a league-average QB. The offense should be in better shape. These additions are nice, but what’s going to help Cleveland’s offense more are the subtractions in personnel on the other side. Cowboys lost Barry Church and Morris Claiborne last week. Church is the 19th ranked safety (PFF) while Claiborne is the 7th ranked corner. There’s no way around it, but this Cowboys secondary is going to be much weaker for the next 4-6 weeks or so. With a mediocre pass-rush and key injuries in the secondary, I doubt this Dallas pass-D will perform at the 17th ranked level for the foreseeable future. One thing to also keep in mind is that Dallas is also featuring a rookie QB. Prescott has played exceptionally well overall, but he’s bound to regress some as the season is going along. Why not a week after such an emotionally come-from-behind OT victory at home? Also, why not after a 6-game winning streak? Winning in the NFL is really hard, and keeping a short winning streak going is even harder. A 6-game winning streak is an ‘eternity’ at this level. At the same time, the Browns are on a 8-game losing streak, which is even harder to achieve. With all the factors I’ve mentioned above in regards to personnel for each team, as well as this being a ‘let-down’ spot for the Cowboys, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Browns upset here. Two of their last three games were within a FG, and playing at home for the second consecutive week in a row, I’d expect a huge effort from this team. Lean: CLE +7
NYJ @ MIA -3.5
Miami is on a 2-game winning streak, coming off a BYE, and looking to keep the “momentum” going. Heck, they’re even a favorite of more than a FG again. But it’s important to remember the old betting adage: “But LOW and sell HIGH”. The Dolphins are ‘high’ right now. Beating Steelers and the Bills, two top-10 teams, will do that to you. But we have to be very careful here. Pittsburgh lost Ben Roethlisberger in the early goings of that game, he came back in the 2nd half but clearly wasn’t the same. He’s now missed a few weeks with the knee injury sustained in that contest. When the Bills came to town, they were “pretty much” without their best offensive weapon in McCoy (he had a hammy issue but tried playing through it: 8 carries for 11 yards), without their top WR Robert Woods, and were in a look ahead spot with the Pats visiting the following weak. The Bills were up 17-6 late in the 3rd quarter of that one, before Miami was able to wear them out in the end. Keep in mind that PIT and BUF, rank 22nd and 15th against the run defensively. Ajayi went wild, rushing for 200+ yards against each. Well, the Jets rank 3rd defensively against the run, featuring the #1 ranked D-line against it as well. Let’s not forget that Tannehill is still the QB of this team, and he’s as bad as it gets (so is Fitzpatrick though). The formula is fairly simple for the Jets, right?: stop the run and force Tannehill to make plays. History (5 years now) says he most likely won’t. Or will he? Sure the Dolphins faced weaker offenses of PIT and BUF before their BYE week, but they faced fully healthy defenses. And Miami’s offense dominated both, averaging a DVOA of +41% for the two games. It wasn’t just the rushing O. The Passing game was around +48% for the two games. With a BYE-week to rest and prepare, I think we could see Miami continue playing well in this matchup. While Miami is considered to be a ‘hot’ team, Jets are also sporting a 2-game winning streak. They beat Baltimore and Cleveland the last two weeks, opponents that are closer to NY though in terms of overall quality. Jets are a really bad team. Fitzpatrick is an absolute disaster. They’re without Decker. Mangold, their best O-lineman, is out. Clady is questionable. Revis-Island is fully submerged by water. Miami is 0-2 ATS as a favorite, but that doesn’t mean anything really. Jets are bad, they’re banged up, they have Fitzpatrick at QB (he might be the worst starter in the league…him and Osweiler), and they’re playing their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks and 6th road game in the last 8 with no breaks in between. My model has Miami -6 in this one. Lean: MIA -3.5
PIT @ BAL (OFF)
Roethlisberger has been limited in practice this week but is expected to suit up for this one. Translation: he’s not 100% percent yet. Both teams are coming off a BYE. Both are getting healthier: PIT – Roethlisberger, Heyward, Gilbert, Napier, Wheaton / BAL – Yanda, Steve Smith, Suggs. My model has this one BAL -1. Unless this line is at +3 or more for either team, I see this one as an easy pass. PASS
NO @ SF +4
My model has this one at +2 SF, so there’s a lot of value on the home dog above a FG. To make the matters even more interesting, Chip Kelly and the Niners had 2 weeks to prepare for this one. If the guy is truly a ‘genius’ (he’s not!), then San Fran should be able to devise an effective game-plan here, especially against a 29th ranked Saints defense. By comparison, New Orleans is coming off a dog-fight of a game against Seattle at home. Now having to travel all the way to the West Coast, and hosting the world champion Broncos next week, this is a classic ‘sandwich’ game for the Saints. This is a type of a game where you can disregard most of the stats, acknowledge that the road favorite has a bottom-4 defense, and simply focus on the line value. Lean: SF +4
CAR @ LAR +3
First the Panthers were a full-FG favorites against Arizona at home, and now they’re a FG-favorites on the road, against an opponent that had 2 weeks to prepare? I don’t have to tell you which way my model is leaning in this one (LAR -1 since you asked!). The Rams have a top-10 run-defense, which is a big factor, as Carolina is a run-oriented offense. In addition, their D is getting healthy: Trumaine Johnson (their best CB) is back, and Quinn/Brockers/Hayes are finally fully healthy. It won’t be as easy for the Panthers as it was last week, against a banged up Arizona D. Carolina is also going to be without Oher and potentially Ryan Kalil, who did not practice all week. Kalil would be a huge loss as he’s Carolina’s most important O-lineman. I expect a good highly-contested game here and hopefully LA’s D plays at an elite level, while the O should do enough against this 27th ranked Panthers pass-D. Lean: LAR +3
IND @ GB -7
The Colts are very likely to be without Vontae Davis (their best CB) and Mike Adams (their best safety) is already declared out. This could pretty much make Rodgers unstoppable, especially if Cobb suits up. On the other side, you have the 4th ranked Packers pass-rush, going up against the 32nd ranked Indy pass-protection. In addition, Quinten Rollins is expected to come back for this one, strengthening the Packers’ secondary. Honestly, Green Bay has some strong edges both on offense and defensively. Coming off a loss @ Atlanta, I’d expect this team to play with a little more effort in this one. I would be surprised if Indy pulls out an upset on the road. Lean: GB -7
TEN @ SD -4
Last time the Chargers were a favorite of more than a FG, they proceeded to lose to the Saints at home. Based on recent history, San Diego is only 4-9 ATS as a listed favorite and 2-8 ATS when it’s above a FG. By comparison, they are 16-11 ATS as an underdog over this span. I think you have to look at the ‘dog’ in this one if you’re going to make a play. The Titans are 3-1 in the last 4 games. They’ve also had 10-days to prepare for this one. One key advantage for the Titans is the fact that the Chargers rank 20th against the run on D and we all know what the Titans want to do on offense. San Diego is also without Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown at LB, making it even tougher for this defense. In addition, San Diego is 22nd in rushing the QB, which should give Mariota decent amount of time in this one. Titans’ D is 22nd overall, but the Chargers are dealing with a number of injuries to their playmakers: Hunter Henry is OUT; while Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are playing through knee injuries. Plus Tennessee has a good pass-rush, ranking 11th overall in ASR%. Overall, I’d expect a close game here, as there are enough advantage for the visitors to keep it within a FG. Lean: TEN +4
Bob Balfe
Giants -3
The Eagles can’t spread the field on offense which is not good news going against this Giants Secondary today. This Eagles Defense is starting to come back down to earth from a surprisingly great start the first few weeks, fool’s gold. The Eagles went from having a great offensive line to losing a key player due to suspension and now another is out today. It’s never a good thing for a young quarterback when the shuffling begins. This is a team that is not doing well in the division and it’s going to be a tough road today against this Giants team that has multiple weapons. Until the Eagles can win in the division it’s not a bad idea to wager against them with these low lines.
Bruce Marshall
Colts / Packers Over 53.5
The long, rugged NFL season has cost G.B. its top RBs and CBs at the midway point. While last week's 33-32 loss at Atlanta represented a valiant effort by the Pack, it shouldn't cloud the fact G.B. was significantly shorthanded (Packers' top rushers in that game were Aa-Rod with 60 YR and FB Ripkowski with 34). Now, the Packers are tasked with winning by a margin vs. a quality QB in Andrew Luck with quality targets. Indy 12-7-1 last 20 getting points; "over" 7 of last 9. Rodgers and Luck trade aerials, NFL style.