Wunderdog
Utah @ New York
Pick: Utah -135
The New York Knicks are off an angry revenge game Friday, whipping Chicago as new Knicks center Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose faced their old squad. The Knicks still have a losing record and are 4-9 ATS following a straight up win. The Utah Jazz are in town with a better record and a fierce, physical defense. They are third in the NBA in points allowed and seventh in field goal defense. By contrast, the Knicks are #25 in points allowed and #22 in field goal defense. Utah won at the Spurs last week as a +10 dog and is 12-3 ATS against a team with a losing straight up record. Utah point guard George Hill is 12-of-21 from 3-point range in the last four games. Utah has the better record, has played a tougher schedule, and has the far superior defense. The wagering value is on the visitors to win the game.
Brad Wilton
After getting off to a 5-0 start, the wheels have finally lost some of their air in the Minnesota bandwagon, as the Vikings came out of their bye week, and got exposed in Philadelphia and then again in Chicago this past Monday night.
The team is as injured as any team in the league, and of particular concern is their offensive line which has not been able to protect quarterback Sam Bradford.
Of course by now we all know the story of the week is offensive coordinator Norv Turner announcing his "resignation", and with his departure in will step Pat Shurmur who was Bradford's coordinator in Philadelphia last season. That familiarity will help in this shortened week for the Vikes, and a "fresh" approach may also help against a Detroit team that is not especially stout on the defensive side of the football.
You would think with all of the obstacles Minnesota has had thrown at them that this line would be a little lower than it is, but yet it hovers around a full score, which is a little puzzling.
This is Minnesota's first home game in nearly a month, and they are a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in their new stadium.
Detroit meanwhile has dropped 3 in a row both straight up and against the spread on the road after an opening week win at Indianapolis.
Minnesota swept the season series last year, and they have won 5 of the previous 8 series meetings straight up, while going 6-2 against the spread versus the Lions.
I am not willing to throw in the towel just yet on the Minnesota season, being back at home helps matters immensely this afternoon.
Play on the Vikings.
2* MINNESOTA
Brett Atkins
Good spot for the Eagles who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, including coughing up a late 10-point lead in Dallas last Sunday night to the Cowboys, as Philadelphia regroups against the rested Giants.
Bye weeks have proven to be tough for teams in their first game back this season, and the fact the Eagles have beaten the Giants 4 straight times, and 7 of the last 9 times overall, while covering in each of the past 4, and going 6-2-1 overall in those 9 against the math.
G-Men did escape London with a win over the Rams and they have won their last pair of games prior to their bye. Still, don't believe New York is quite where Philadelphia is at this season strength-wise, as the Birds are to me the better of the 2 teams on the field this Sunday afternoon.
New York simply does not run the ball effectively enough to keep defenses honest, so much like Philadelphia did against Minnesota a few weeks back when the Vikings couldn't run the pigskin, expect the Eagles defense to be all over Eli Manning as they look to head back home next week for a date with the high-flying Falcons.
This game is more important to Philadelphia, and I expect them to treat it as such.
Go with the Eagles here.
4* PHILADELPHIA
Bob Valentino
There aren't a lot of players left on these rosters, from the original rivalry that's brewed for years. But the rivalry is set in stone, make no bones about it. Today my free play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers, laying the points in Baltimore, against an outmatched Ravens team that isn't as good as years past.
Baltimore (3-4) has lost four straight . And while I know the Steelers (4-3) have dropped two in a row, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger remains in the mix to return to the lineup today. Pittsburgh listed Roethlisberger as questionable on Friday's injury report. Big Ben is less than three weeks removed from surgery to repair torn cartilage in his left knee. He practiced in a limited capacity all week.
Besides, I'm counting on Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell, who rumbled for 149 yards of total offense on a day Roethlisberger watched from the sideline in sweats, against the New England Patriots. Bell is already second on the team in receptions (30), despite missing the first three games. He will be key in guiding this offense.
This duel for first place in the AFC North will also be fueled by the Steelers' revenge mindset, as the Ravens swept both meetings last season and have won three straight meetings.
Take Pittsburgh.
2* STEELERS
Dave Price
Detroit Lions +6
The Minnesota Vikings can't be trusted to lay 6 points against any team right now with the way they are playing. They are coming off back-to-back road losses to the Philadelphia Eagles (10-21) and the Chicago Bears (10-20). Their offense has been atrocious because they have no running game, and their offensive line cannot block anybody. They managed just 10 points and 292 yards against the Eagles, and 10 points and 258 total yards against the Bears. Norv Turner resigned as offensive coordinator because things were getting so bad. The Lions have won 3 of their last 4 and should be able to keep this game close, if not pull off the upset. Their defense should get after Sam Bradford, who has been sacked 11 times the past two games. Matthew Stafford will continue his strong season and make enough plays in the passing game to keep this one close.
Jack Jones
Miami Dolphins -4
The Miami Dolphins have saved their season with their two most dominant performances of the season coming in. Now they've had a bye week to rest and to build off of the momentum they have gained going into their bye. I look for them to come out very sharp today against the hapless New York Jets.
It started with a 30-15 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers three weeks ago. The Dolphins outgained the Steelers by 187 yards in that contest. Then they came back and beat the Buffalo Bills the following week in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the 28-25 final would indicate. They outgained the Bills by 187 yards.
A big reason for their resurgence is that they have had their starting five offensive linemen in the lineup over the past two games, which was the first two times all season. As a result, they've come out and run the football with a ton of success. They rushed for 222 yards against the Steelers and 256 against the Bills. That has taken a lot of the pressure off of Ryan Tannehill.
The Jets have won two straight as well after starting the season 1-5. But those two wins have come against the Ravens, who have lost four straight, and the Browns, who are 0-8 this season. The Jets are a tired team right now because they haven't had their bye yet.
That fatigue has really started to show up in the injury department as well. They are already without Eric Decker, but several key players are questionable or expected to miss this game. LB Darron Lee and C Nick Mangold are doubtful, while DE Muhammad Wilkerson, T Ryan Clady and T Breno Giacomini are questionable.
The Jets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. excellent rushing teams who average 5 or more yards per carry this season. The Dolphins actually rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per play differential. They gain 6.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.4 yards per play on defense. The Jets rank 28th in that same category, averaging 5.3 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.8 per play on defense.
Power Sports
Detroit vs. Minnesota
Pick: Detroit
Divisional underdogs have been a pretty safe bet so far this year, going 23-15 ATS. We have one here with the Lions visiting the Vikings. I've played against Minnesota each of the L2 games as they've lost outright as road favorites to Philadelphia and Chicago. Now they're on a short week and have lost their OC (Norv Turner).
The Turner situation will likely serve as a distraction as it seems to me that he was forced out in favor of Pat Shurmur. Dumb move from where I sit. Sure the Vikings offense has become stagnant in recent weeks, but that's because of Shurmur's "golden child" Sam Bradford. Also, remember there's still no Adrian Peterson. Averaging only 72 yards per game rushing won't get it done in this league. Also, the team has scored just 10 pts each of the L2 games. For the year, this offense has scored very few touchdowns. The fact that they are 18-5 ATS L23 games only means it's time to start fading when they are favored.
This projects to be a low-scoring affair, so again, taking the points is the way to go. The Detroit defense should get to Bradford plenty today. The question is can an offense which managed only 13 pts and less than 300 yards last week get it done? The answer is I think they can do enough to stay within the number here. The Lions have double revenge from LY when they were swept by the Vikings.
The Real Animal
Dallas -7
Cleveland is amazingly consistent in a bad way. The Browns have allowed 25 or more points in every game this year including 30 or more in 5/6 recently. Only the 49ers allow more yards on the ground per carry and per game. Only Atlanta has allowed more touchdown passes than the Browns at 19. Only Detroit allows opposing quarterbacks a higher QB rating on average (103.4). So Dak has options galore with Dez back in the lineup. Esekiel Elliott should have holes galore to run through. Sure Cleveland has lost some heartbreakers missing field goals against Miami and enjoying fourth quarter leads against Washington and Baltimore. Big deal. They still found a way to get beat. I know the Browns get back Cody Kessler but he only has a 4-1 ratio. Let’s try to put this in perspective. The last time we saw Dallas on the road they won at Lambeau Field 30-16. When facing the only three winning teams this year, the Browns have lost by 19 to Philly, 11 to Washington, and by 20 to New England. Last time I checked Dallas was way above .500.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +135 over CAROLINA
OT included. The Devils are winless on the road and will use backup Keith Kindkaid in goal today but that’s fine with us, as it adds value to the Devils. You see, when Cory Schneider sits, the market propensity is too fade a team when they turn to their backup. That's a dangerous game to play most of the time, as we saw yesterday when the Rangers announced that Henrik Lundqvist was going to sit and money subsequently poured in on the Bruins. The result? The Rangers won, 5-2. The Devils are a stingy team that ranks in the top 10 in Corsi against. The knock on the Devils is that their offense is weak but they fired away 38 shots on TB last night and 31 on the Florida on Thursday night. The Devils have also scored three times or more in three of their past five games. New Jersey’s top two lines are creating plenty of scoring opportunities, which bodes well against the weak goaltending of the Hurricanes.
The old adage is that when you have two #1 goaltenders, you have none. That's where the Hurricanes find themselves again this season. While we love Carolina’s forwards and defense, we have a hard time backing the 'Canes because both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack are a disaster. A starter hasn't been named yet for this one but one thing we know for sure is that it does not matter. Both Ward and Lack are completely unreliable and because of that, Carolina cannot be favored in this range against anyone. Carolina's goaltending duo has a combined .873 save percentage, which is the worst in the NHL between any pair. Carolina will continue to lose games when they outplay the opposition and they have little chance of winning when they get outplayed. They are a must fade team when favored because goaltending, or lack thereof decides a high majority of outcomes.
Winnipeg +175 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. Both the Rangers and Jets have played 12 games with the Rangers jumping out to a 9-3 record while the Jets are four games worse at 5-7. However, in terms of analytics, you might not find two teams as evenly matched as these two. In just about every offensive and defensive category, Winnipeg and the Rangers are within one or two positions of one another. The difference is that the Jets' shooting percentage and save percentage is lower than New York’s. Switch those two luck-driven stats and we’d be discussing the 9-3 Jets and 5-7 New York Rangers and thus, a pick-em betting line.
The Rangers scored five goals on 24 shots last night in Boston. They were outshot 37-24 but won 5-2. Earlier this week against the Blues, the Rangers were outshot 35-29 and won 5-0. New York has now scored five goals or more in four straight games and in five of its last six games. This offensive output by the Rangers is completely unsustainable and so is their current pace. Don’t get us wrong, as there are plenty of things to like about the Rangers, specifically their deep and talented group of forwards but their defense remains one of the least talented and slowest units in the NHL. The Rangers will now play their third game in four days, tail end of back to backs and their sixth game in nine nights. Winnipeg is very simply an extremely live pooch and extremely risky favorite. They are loaded with talent, they are sound defensively and they’re capable of defeating anyone, which brings us right back to what we preach most. In that regard and with the Rangers heavy schedule, the Jets offer up a TON of value here.