Scott Rickenbach
Packers vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings +3½
Even though QB Sam Bradford is out for this game, Minnesota actually moved the ball much better against the Bears on Monday night once he was replaced. This is a great spot to fade the Packers as they are off of their late game win at Dallas. Packers are 1-4 ATS (and SU!) as a road fave of 3 points or less. 3 is the dominant number on this game as of early Sunday morning but there is some 3.5 out there which is, of course, what you should grab if you have access to it. The Vikings are on a 15-5 ATS run in home games. Also, the Vikes are a perfect 6-0 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. In comparing these two teams, Minny has the better ground game on offense and the Vikings also have the much better rushing defense. Don't be surprised if the running game ends up being a key factor in this one.
TJ Pemberton
San Francisco at Washington
Play: Washington -11
The Washington Redskins will look to bounce back affter their 29-20 Monday night loss to the Chiefs. The Redskins are 2-2 on the season and will host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. Washington is -10 point home favorite in this one while the home team has covered in the last three of four. Kirk Cousins has played good football for the Skins this season so far. Cousins has thrown for seven touchdowns and one interception. The Redskins are 9th in the NFL in yards per game. The San Francisco 49ers are 0-5 on the season and lost last Thursday in overtime to the Colts. The 49ers are 0-3 on the road this season and this will be their third straight road game. The 49ers are 22nd in the NFL in yards per game. Brian Hoyer has been the 49ers QB this season so far. Hoyer has four touchdowns and four interceptions with a 59% completion rate. The 49ers are a bad football team and pretty banged up as well. Lay it and play it with Washington at home on Sunday. The 49ers are bad and playing cross country will not help anything. Washington is a good football team and needs to win at home to compete for the division.
Matt Fargo
Chargers vs. Raiders
Play: Raiders -3
The Chargers picked up their first win of the season last week but it took almost every Giants wide receiver to exit the game. Now they are back in California to face the Raiders in search of their first two-game winning streak since October of last season and they are not in a good spot to do so. This team has been struggling over the last couple years in close games but it was able to break free last week despite a poor game from quarterback Philip Rivers as he competed just 48 percent of his passes. This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Oakland quarterback Derek Carr but he has been cleared after missing just two games with a back fracture. After opening the season 2-0, the Raiders have dropped three straight games and with a game against Kansas City on Thursday, this is a must win game to keep pace in the division. The Oakland offense has been lethargic without Carr but will get a boost today against a Chargers defense that is ranked No. 245 in total defense. The Chargers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win so not only are they not winning, they are not covering as well. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home and we can expect a big bounce back effort this week again.
Brandon Shively
Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City
Pick: Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh grabbing points is a rare sight and this is the perfect bounce back position for them.
The Steelers were embarrassed at home by the Jags last week and they will certainly come out with some fire here.
Pittsburgh has gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. They typically will string together solid performances following losses, which has made them a solid team year after year.
Last season they had their number from the start, taking down the Chiefs twice.
Look for the Steelers to control the clock and really put together some solid drives early on to set the tone.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -4
The set-up: The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL's lone remaining unbeaten team at 5-0 (also 5-0 ATS) and no one will need to remind Andy Reid nor his team that the last time the Chiefs lost a meaningful football game (we don't count the preseason) was last January in the AFC playoffs, 18-16 at home to the team they'll face this Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chiefs welcome the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers to Arrowhead Stadium for this Week 6 contest, with Pittsburgh coming off a shocking 30-9 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday, a game in which QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed five interceptions. The frustration of his performance prompted Big Ben to tell reporters after the game that "maybe I doesn't have it in me anymore."
Pittsburgh: I doubt many believe that Big Ben is through. Surely, KC's Andy Reid doesn't buy that Roethlisberger is anything less today than a year ago. "I think that was more just to back people off from the questions," Reid said. "We get hit with a couple questions and that can be kind of a back off deal. I know we have to play against a heck of a player, a future Hall of Fame player. We got to get ourselves ready, we don't think much about all those comments. KC's QB Alex Smith added, "I know he was frustrated in the moment," Smith said. "I know he said this and it is easy to make too much of it. I think he is still playing at a pretty good level from afar." BTW...Roethlisberger completed 60 percent of his passes for 312 yards against the Jags, as well. Pittsburgh's offense has struggled more than expected in 2017, despite boasting RB Le’Veon Bell and the league’s leading receiver in Antonio Brown, who has already recorded three 100-yard performances this season. However, that Steelers D allows 17.8 PPG (6th), struggling against the run (136.6 YPG ranks 28th) but leading the NFL in pass D, allowing only 139.6 YPG!
Kansas City: The Chiefs, simply put, have easily been the NFL's best in 2017. KC is averaging a league-leading 32.8 PPG, as Alex Smith is delivering a "career year," He's completed 76.6 percent, while averaging 258.0 YPG (8th-best) and throwing 11 TDs with not a single INT in 158 attempts (125.8 QB rating is tops in the league). Rookie RB Kareem Hunt is running away (literally) with top rookie honors, rushing for a league--best 609 yards (6.3 YPC and 4 TDs), while catching 16 passes for two more TDs. KC ranks second in rushing at 156.2 YPG. Smith's top targets are TE Kelce (29 catches) and WR Hill (25). KC's defense has not needed to to great and it hasn't, as the Chiefs come in allowing 22.2 PPG (17th) on 366.0 YPG (27th).
The pick: The key here is that Big Ben is 5-1 as a starting QB in his career against Kansas City and his 118.7 QB rating against the Chiefs ranks as his best against any team he's played more than twice. Roethlisberger has thrown 13 TD passes and just three interceptions in his six regular-season meetings with the Chiefs. The Steelers handed Kansas City a 43-14 shellacking in last year's regular season in Pittsburgh and then, as noted above, defeated the Chiefs 18-16 in the playoffs at KC, holding the Chiefs to only 227 total yards. Pittsburgh didn't score a TD (just six FGs) but Big Ben threw for 224 yards and Bell ran for 170! So, does this mean Pittsburgh and Big Ben "have KC's number?" Not this year's KC team!
Power Sports
Chargers at Raiders
Pick: Chargers +3.5
There was a lot of uncertainly surrounding this game, namely where, or even IF, it would be played and who would be starting at QB for the Raiders. The answers to those questions were settled Friday as it will be in Oakland w/ Derek Carr at the helm. The fires affecting California have affected the air quality, which is why there was a question of venue. Carr, just two weeks removed from a back fracture, has returned much earlier than was anticipated.
Might Carr be coming back too soon? We won't know until the game is played, but my thought is that he's pressing due to the Raiders being on a three-game losing streak. The Silver and Black were high on many prognosticators' rankings coming into the year, but not mine. This was a fortunate team last year as they went 12-4 SU despite a point differential of only +31, the lowest for ANY 12-4 SU team in league history! The keys were that they finished tied for the best turnover differential and went 8-1 SU in one-score games. They haven't been as lucky this year and I can't say that I'm surprised.
Speak of "luck," you'd rather have no luck at all than the Chargers' luck. Their four losses this year have been by a combined 21 points w/ three of those by a field goal or less. This is a continuation of an ugly three-year trend that has seen the team lose an incredible number of close affairs. However, they actually won one last week against the Giants in what was a battle of 0-4 teams. That win may not have impressed the marketplace much, but don't be surprised if the Chargers start winning some close games moving forward. (Yes, I know I've said this before!). Carr's health is still a major question mark for the Raiders, who seem to be sinking fast. WR Amari Cooper, in particular, has had a dreadful L3 games. The underdog is on a 14-2 ATS run in this AFC West rivalry, so take the points.
Jim Feist
Lions vs. Saints
Pick: Over 49.5
The Lions look to extend their win streak against the Saints to four games here today. They have also won the last two games in New Orleans. The Saints offense really picked up before their break last week, scoring 65 points and gaining 1,025 yards in their previous two games. The Saints have also been a good over team following their bye week, going 9-1 O/U their last 10 seasons. The Saints have also gone over in 11 of their last 15 home games with one push. Don't like a side here, but I do think we are in for a lot of scoring.
Harry Bondi
Miami / Atlanta Under 46
Not only have the Dolphins gone under the total in all four games this season, but they haven’t even come close to going over. In fact, Miami games this season have gone under the posted total by a whopping 74.5 points, including two away games that have averaged just 27.3 points per game. Yes, Atlanta was one of the highest scoring teams in NFL history last year, but the Falcons are just 2-2 to the over so far this season. With a huge game on deck at New England on Sunday Night Football, don’t expect Atlanta to exert itself here today, especially if they build a big second-half lead. Take the under!
Executive Sports
New England at New York
Play: New England -9
Play On Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - with a pathetic defense allowing 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games (30-7, 81% since 1983.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Executive Sports
New England at New York
Play: New England -9
Play On Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - with a pathetic defense allowing 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games (30-7, 81% since 1983.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Jim Mack
Giants at Broncos
Play: Giants +12
Obviously things look rough in Giant-land right now. Just nine months removed from an appearance in the playoffs, the G-men are staring at 0-5 with very bleak prospects after the loss of WR Odell Beckham and a few others for the season. These injuries have added insult to an offense that has scored just 16.4 PPG to date. At this point, it would seem that betting New York as a huge underdog at Denver would be like taking poison intentionally. However, bettors have FLOCKED to Denver in big numbers, bringing the line all the way up to 12. That is concern #1 for me. Concern #2 is laying 12-points with an offense that only scores 24.5 PPG and gains only 5.3 yards per play. It isn’t easy to cover huge pointspreads like that. Finally, if you go down the list of recent games with double-digit pointspreads in the NFL, you won’t find many dogs that has a quarterback with the resume of Eli Manning. There is also a reasonably strong system indicating to Play on Road teams - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a loss by 6 or less points. Record is 137-83 ATS over last three decades. This looks like such a stay away game for New York on the surface that they in fact probably will play well.
Vegas Butcher
GB @ MIN +3
The Vikings are hosting the Packers on a short week with a spread at a FG. The public obviously is salivating over this “seemingly low” number as over 80% of all the bets are on the road favorite of course. But is it justified? Let’s compare the rankings of both QB’s on the season:
Rodgers: 12% DVOA (11th); 62 QBR (8th); 67% Completion %
Keenum: 33% DVOA (2nd); 68 QBR (5th); 65% Completion %
Hmm…Is Keenum a better QB than Rodgers? Of course not. But the point of this illustration is to show that he’s played extremely well so far this season. Against a 20th ranked Packers D, he should have another good outing at home. Of course Diggs is out, which is a pretty significant loss. On the other side, the Packers’ issues on the O-line could very well be a deciding factor in this game. This is a unit that ranks 23rd at protecting Rodgers so far this season, and if LT Bakhtiari misses this one, the Packers could have a hard time keeping Rodgers off the ground. In any case, even though the Vikings are at home, they’re familiar with their opponent, and their backup QB has played really well, intuitively you have to like the Packers with this number. Keenum is no Rodgers, and whatever his numbers show in a small sample size of 4 or so games, can’t compare to their true ability. Diggs’ loss is huge, as he’s the only real field-stretcher of this offense. And McKinnon, though his athletic ability is awesome, has never carried a load for extended period of time. He also took a number of hard hits last week. On a short week, missing their top offensive weapon, and facing a Packers team that is clearly superior, this is a tough spot for Minnesota. Lean: GB -3
CLE @ HOU -9.5
The worst team in the league (CLE) is facing off against a top-10 squad (HOU). But are the Texans ready to be a favorite again, especially such a large one? When they hosted the Jags in week 1 as a 6-point favorite, they got shellacked. They then went 3-1 ATS as an underdog in the following 4 weeks. The question we must ask ourselves is, did ‘line value’ shift away from them now? A few key factors to consider. We all saw JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus sustain season-ending injuries last Sunday night. Their losses are absolutely huge, as they were Houston’s top pass-rushers. Now Clowney will have to face off against Joe Thomas all by himself. I don’t have to tell you that Thomas is the best tackle in the game. Another key change is the fact that Browns are going with Hogan in this one, and that’s an upgrade just due to the fact of how awful Kizer has been so far. If the Browns lean on Johnson and Crowell in the run-game and with limited pass-rush by the Texans, Cleveland can move the ball in this one. On the other side, the Browns should also be improving. They got their #1 overall pick suited up last week, and Garrett is expected to play more snaps on Sunday. In addition, Jamie Collins is supposed to rejoin the D this week. With Houston featuring the worst O-line in terms of pass-protection, it’s not hard to expect a lot of pressure on Watson in this one. And if Cleveland’s 3rd ranked run-D shuts down Miller in the run-game, things could get even more difficult. My point of all this analysis is that Browns should field a ‘better’ team in this matchup than they’ve had so far, and though on the surface it looks like a huge mismatch, this one actually could be a pretty competitive affair. A team like the Texans with a rookie QB and missing their top 2 defensive players shouldn’t be backed as a heavy favorite, and I actually believe there’s value with the underdog here. Lean: CLE +9.5
DET @ NO -4.5
The Saints are off a BYE week here. Coming off a shutout of Miami in London and holding the Panthers to only 13 points the previous week, this is actually an improved defense overall. They rank 16th against the pass, though are 30th against the run. Of course one team that can’t take advantage of this are the Lions, who have been horrible running the ball for a number of years now. Being one-dimensional will play in New Orleans’ hands here, though I believe Detroit will at least try to get Abdullah going early. It’ll be harder to do so if they fall behind, which they’ve been known to do over the last few years. The offseason spread on this game was -2.5 NO, but the current number has grown to -4.5 now. There’s definitely line-value with the road team here, but the spread is interesting. It really shouldn’t be more than a FG in this matchup, and it’s not like the Lions got embarrassed last week against the Panthers. Seems like the bookmakers are expecting the Saints to play well off a BYE, though you’d have to go against line value to do so. Lean: DET +4.5
MIA @ ATL -13
This spread was -6.5 ATL in the offseason. It’s a full TD higher now. Is this increase justified? Probably not. The Dolphins have been awful offensively, but they’ll be facing a 24th ranked Atlanta D, one that is 29th against the run. I know I keep repeating myself, but eventually Ajai and the run-game is going to get going, right? Right??? If the run-game gets going, it’ll make Cutler that much more effective. At this point of his career, he’s useless without the threat of a run-game. In any case, the whole point here is that the Falcons are way over-valued. This is not a top-5 team right now, as they rank 7th offensively and 24th on D. But they’re being priced like one of the best teams in the league with this line. Lean: MIA +13
NE @ NYJ +9
In the offseason this line was +9.5, so around what it is now. But that was when the bookmakers were assuming that the Jets will be winless and the Pats won’t be defeated this year. Things are a bit different now. New England has the worst defense in the league, is without Edelman, and is fielding a very mediocre O-line. Jets…well, they’re tied with New England in the division and has just won 3 in a row. There’s a lot of value on the home team here, though it’s important to note that the Pats have had 10-days to prepare and they have a huge advantage with their QB in this one. Lean: NYJ +9
CHI @ BAL -6.5
A rookie QB going on the road to face off against the 2nd best pass-D in the league. He’ll have to do it on a short-week also. Frankly, I’m surprised this one is not at least 7. The Bears have lost another WR, as Wheaton is out for this one. People will say that Trubisky passed the ‘eye test’ (and I think he did too), but this is not a quarterback that is ready to ‘dominate’ the way Watson has for the Texans. He has no weapons in the passing game. He looks like a very raw QB who has only started 13 games in college (Watson started 38). And most importantly, he doesn’t have 11-days to prepare for a home start, like his MNF debut against the Vikings. The Bears lost by 22 @ Tampa and by 21 @ GB on the road this year. This one feels like it could be just as big of a blowout. Lean: BAL -6.5
SF @ WAS -11
The offseason line was WAS -8. It’s much higher now. I know the 49ers are playing their 3rd straight road game, coming off two straight OT losses. They’ve actually played in four straight close games which they’ve lost by 3 points or less. Now, they must go all the way to Washington to play in the 1 PM EST game. That’s not easy for a West Coast team. It’s even more difficult when you’re facing a well-rested team coming off a BYE. Washington is without Josh Norman and Shanahan is familiar with the Redskins after his time there in the past, so those factors should favor the niners. Of course line-value is in their favor as well. Still, the really tough travel spot has to be considered carefully in this one. Lean: SF +11
TB @ ARZ +1
The Cardinals were -3 in the offseason. They’re a home ‘dog’ in this matchup now. I can’t say that’s ‘not earned’ as this team has been awful. They’re 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS, with their two wins coming against IND and SF, two of the worst-4 teams in the league. Arguably, Arizona is a bottom-5 team itself now. Both teams are coming off losses, so we can expect both to try to bounce-back here. Tampa is getting back David and Ward, which is huge for their defense. Though I’m not sure these guys will help in the pass-rushing department, an area where the Bucs rank dead last in the league. Arizona’s main issue has been protecting Carson Palmer, but if they can accomplish that, he should be able to pick apart this terrible Tampa secondary. Plus Peterson could possibly give the run-game a jolt it needs. Lean: ARZ +1
LAR @ JAX -2.5
This will be LA’s 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, and of course they have to make a cross-country trip for this one. Luckily for them, they won’t be playing in the early slot. This line in the offseason was -3.5 JAX, so LA’s impressive start to the season is clearly having an effect on the current number. But let’s forget the spread for a second. The question really is, can the Rams beat the Jags on the road. Jacksonville has the #1 ranked pass D and the #1 overall D in the league. Goff has played really well so far this season, but I still remember how awful he looked last year. Can this Jacksonville defense revert him back to his 2016 ways? It’s possible. Look what they did to Roethlisberger last week. Tough spot for the visitors here, and the spread indicates line-value on the home team in this one. Lean: JAX -2.5
LAC @ OAK -3.5
These divisional matchups simply don’t end up having large margins between these two rivals, so a spread over a FG is interesting. The offseason line had OAK -8. Clearly the bookmakers expect Oakland to be a much better team than they have been so far. Still, -8 seems way inflated. In any case, the current spread is much closer to being accurate, though I don’t think it’s high enough for the home team. One factor to keep in mind is that prior to the Giants losing all of their WR’s to injuries, they were on their way to getting a fairly comfortable win last week. The Chargers barely won that one. This team is very mediocre including their QB. Rivers is only 13th in Efficiency and 26th in QBR. He’s been very TO-prone which shows his unreliability. Backing the Chargers with Rivers in a divisional matchup with a spread over a FG isn’t as ‘automatic’ as it used to be in the years past. Lean: OAK -3.5
PIT @ KC -4
The #1 rule of betting NFL is to NOT put too much weight to previous week’s performance. Even though the Steelers got blown away by the Jags, they were leading 9-7 in the 3rd quarter. Two pick-6’s by Roethlisberger and a few more INT’s doomed the team, but it was a close game for a larger portion of that one. Expecting 5 INT’s and 2 pick-6’s by KC isn’t realistic. Their defense isn’t as stout (19th overall; 14th against the pass) nor do they have the same pass-rush as the Jags. Pittsburgh is getting Gilbert back, which is a big boost to the O-line. Plus this is a natural bounce-back spot for the whole Steelers squad. I expect a good effort out of them and I believe they matchup well with the Chiefs. Lean: PIT +4
NYG @ DEN -11.5
This line was -3 DEN in the offseason. The current number is all you need to know about the current state of the G-men. Honestly, with no WR’s available, no run-game, and a truly mediocre QB play of Manning, there’s no way the Giants win this game. Can they cover the inflated number though? I’ll let someone else try to figure that out. PASS
Bob Balfe
Saints -4
Detroit comes into this game with Matthew Stafford nursing an ankle injury, two offensive linemen on the right side most likely out and on defense a ton of injuries on the front 7. The Saints are the best defense in the NFL over the last two weeks which is shocking to say. Drew Brees is a tough QB to beat in his own building and should find his targets today against a banged up Lions Defense. This turf is not ideal for QB’s that are not 100 percent on their feet. A big part of Stafford’s game is taking off when routes breakdown.
Dodgers -155
The Dodgers got themselves a big win to open up the series and can take control with a win tonight. Rich Hill has been better than Jon Lester all season and at home is really tough to hit. The Dodgers are a better baseball team this year and it is the games like this they have to win if they finally are going to break over to that next level and leave a mark in this history books.
Chris Jordan
My free play is going to be the Los Angeles Rams over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Make note, as of 7:30 a.m. pacific, the number I see on this later game is Rams +2' points. The number is going to drop by kickoff of the early games, so be sure you're in there buying the half point to +3.
Los Angeles has a chance to move to two games above .500, as it arrives in Jacksonville with a 3-2 mark after losing a tough one to the Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams have the fifth-best offense in football, led by the fifth-best passing game. That won't bode well for Jacksonville's passing defense, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
And personally, I think the Rams, who are 2-0 on the road, will be looking to build momentum away from home, as they begin an 11-day road trip that starts here and continues across the Atlantic to face division-rival Arizona in London. Los Angeles is sticking around in Jacksonville for four days before heading to London.
Running back Todd Gurley leads the NFL with seven touchdowns, so he balances the offense out nicely, and gives the Rams a chance to win outright over a Jags team that has an NFL-worst 9-28 record at home (not including five London games) since 2011.
Take the road pup.
2* RAMS
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Sunday is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as there is some revenge in order with this one.
I know this becomes a must-win for the Steelers, who are 2-3, but even though they lead the all-time series, 22-11, Kansas City is the better team. And since these teams met in January in the division playoffs, and it was the Steelers edging K.C., 18-16, I think the Chiefs are going to want to drive the nail deeper in Pittsburgh's coffin.
Kansas City comes into this one with the second-best offense, led by the second-best rushing game in the league. Kareem Hunt has four 100-yard rushing games, and at home, with the wind howling and the Chiefs needing to turn to their rushing attack, he will run roughshod through the Steelers' 28th-ranked rushing D.
Pittsburgh's passing D is No. 1 in the NFL, but it won't matter in these windy conditions today, as I don't think K.C. relies much on Alex Smith's arm today. Hunt leads the NFL in yards per carry (6.28), yards rushing (609) and scrimmage yards per game (155), so look for him to carry a brunt of the load.
3* CHIEFS