Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 16th, 2016

Art Aronson

Falcons vs. Seahawks
Play: Seahawks -6

Setting the scene: The Seahawks come out of their timely bye-week refreshed, refocused and sitting at 3-1 to start the year. The Falcons dropped their opener to the Bucs, but have since won four straight, including a 23-16 win at Denver last week. It’s hard to win on the road and even harder to do it in back-to-back weeks. We think Atlanta is finally primed for a letdown this Sunday.

The bottom line: This is a spot in which Atlanta has struggled in for bettors, going just 2-8 ATS over the last two season’s in weeks 5 through 9, while Seattle has dominated in this spot by going 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-1 ATS following its bye. Consider a second look at the home side in this one.

Power Sports

San Francisco vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo

It's rare for me, in this space or any other, to recommend laying this many points. But the Bills are hot and the 49ers are well, not. Three consecutive wins, over Arizona, New England and Los Angeles, have reinvigorated Rex Ryan's charges to the point that I would consider this a legit playoff contender. I won w/ Buffalo (10* Game of the Week) on Sunday; let's use them again here.

Were it not for the Browns, San Francisco probably would be considered the league's worst team. Their season has taken a similar trajectory to last year where they won the first game (late Monday nighter) in impressive fashion and then fell apart thereafter. They'll come into upstate New York w/ some additional rest, but does it even matter? All four losses have come by a TD or greater. This is an early start time to boot.

Save for the shutout of New England, the Bills offense has scored 30+ in three of the last four games. More importantly, Ryan's defene has allowed an average of just over 12 PPG during the current win streak. This may be the weakest offense that they'll see all year. On the other hand, the Niners have given up 37 and 46 points in their two road games thus far. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly.

Strike Point Sports

San Francisco +8 over Buffalo

At 3-2 Buffalo is having a solid start to the season and they are coming into this game winners of their last three games, including a nice shutout victory over the Brady-less New England Patriots. This is a tough spot for the Bills to cover a big number. The 49ers are the type of team the Bills will take for granted as they have a divisional road game following this game and then they have their second meeting with the Brady-lead Patriots. After this game the 49ers head back home to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then have their bye week. That isn't exactly something to look ahead too. This is one of those games where you watch it and wonder how the Bills aren't running away with it. The 49ers aren't that good, and the Bills are playing really well, but like I said, it is an absolute trap game. Don't be fooled into thinking the Bills are going to run away with this game. The stretch the Bills are on currently is similar to what they have done in the past. Two seasons ago the Bills smashed the Jets, beat Cleveland, played a great Denver team tough, then beat Green Bay. They were rolling, and then somehow managed to lose to the 2-12 Oakland Raiders. Now don't get me wrong, I don't see San Fran winning this game, but they will stay within the number.

Robert Ferringo

Pittsburgh -7.5 over Miami

The Miami Dolphins are huge losers. And what's worse is that they look like they don't even care. They are one of the three or four worst teams in the league and, really, this shouldn't come as a surprise. They were one of the worst teams in football last year and really haven't upgraded the roster at all. Pittsburgh can light people up due to the sheer depth and breadth of their offensive firepower. Miami has not shown an ability to stop anyone, posting the No. 28 total defense and the No. 32 rushing defense in football. They have given up an average of 26.5 points per game in their last four games and they haven't faced an offense even close to what Pittsburgh is packing. The Dolphins allowed Cleveland to score 24 and Tennessee to get to 30, for crying out loud. The Steelers could be looking ahead to the Patriots next week. But all four of their wins this year, including a 38-16 whitewashing of Washington in the opener, have come by at least eight points. Their average margin of victory is nearly 20 points in their four wins, and all four of the teams they have beaten are much better than the feeble Fins. Let's not overthink this one. Pittsburgh should roll.

Dwayne Bryant

Cowboys at Packers
Play: Under 47

For the average bettor, it's tough to take the Under when you think of the Packers offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers. But this Green Bay offense is currently ranked 25th in total yards per game (321.8 ), but they do rank a decent 12th in points per game (24.5). They'll be facing a Dallas defense that ranks 8th in the league in points allowed per game (18.2).

That 18.2 ppg is more indicative of how dominant the Cowboys offense is at controlling the clock. Dallas is #2 in the league in time of possession. They use their punishing ground game led by rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott to sustain clock-eating drives and keep their defense on the sideline. The Cowboys defense did look much better last Sunday against the Bengals though. The return of defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence re-energized the Dallas pass rush, and the Cowboys defensive backs did a great job in coverage.

The problem for Dallas' offense is that the Packers defense has allowed just TWO yards per carry this season. Yes, you read that correctly -- just two yards per rushing attempt. The Cowboys won't give up on their ground game. If anything, they'll give Alfred Morris more carries if Elliott struggles. What they won't do is abandon the run and go pass-happy with rookie QB Dak Prescott. Again, the Cowboys will try to keep Aaron Rodgers and their own defense off the field as much as possible.

Going back to the beginning of last season, the Under is 8-2 in Dallas' road games, with an average score of Opponents 18.7, Dallas 17.3. These games stayed Under by an average of 9.55 points per contest.

Green Bay's home games have also stayed Under the total at 8-2 clip since the start of last season. With an average score of Packers 24.3, Opponents 18, these games stayed Under by an average of 4.8 points per contest.

I'm seeing a score in the neighborhood of 23-20 in this one.

Buster Sports

Ravens vs. Giants
Play: Under 44.5

The Giants and the Ravens play on Sunday and both teams have had their trouble of late, the Ravens losing their last two games and the Giants their last 3. The Ravens decided to make a move to get their sputtering offense going and they fired their OC Marc Tresman. The Ravens offense just hasn't looked right and we believe Flacco is not a 100% as he hasn't been the same QB that we have seen in the past. With new OC Marty Mornhinweg taking over we see the Ravens offense struggling again against the Giants defense that needs to come up with a steller effort at home. The Ravens have been playing excellent defense as they are 5th in yards allowed. They go up against a Giant offense that has been terrible its last couple of games scoring only 26 points combined in those games. Eli Manning is having a rough year as he is currently 26th in QBR. Looks like Eli could be in for another long day against the Raven D. The total at the time of this writing is 44 1/2. We see this being a defensive battle with the UNDER being the play. Backing our selection is the fact that the Under is 8-3 in the Giants last 11 games in October and the fact that the UNDER is 5-2 in the Ravens last 7 games overall.

Mike Rose

Jacksonville vs. Chicago
Play: Jacksonville +3

The Chicago Bears are 0-2 SU and ATS versus the AFC South this season. They’ll get another crack to log a win against the division in Week 6 when the Jacksonville Jaguars pay a visit to the Windy City after taking the Colts to the wire last week. It took a trip to London to get the Jags in the win column after scoring the 30-27 win over the Colts as 1 point underdogs. They’ve now had ample time to prepare for Chicago, but stand 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS out of the bye under the current regime.

Brian Hoyer threw for 397 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts last week, and has done a solid job taking over for the injured Jay Cutler since Week 3. In his three starts, he’s logged QB ratings of 93.7, 120.1 and 120 but will be facing his toughest challenge since taking over versus a Jacksonville defense allowing just 198.8 passing yards per game (#7).

While Chicago has shown some improvement the last two weeks beating the Lions and giving the Colts a run for their money in their own house, I don’t agree with it being the favored side in this matchup. Jacksonville is better on both sides of the ball than the Bears, and with Chicago not adept at forcing interceptions (3), Blake Bortles likely won’t kill his team with poorly timed misfires. Even though the Jags have won one game to date, it’s still in the running within the weak AFC South. In order to remain there, it must win a game like this on the road against a very beatable opponent.

Will Rogers

Cleveland vs. Tennessee
Pick: Cleveland

The set-up: The Browns and Titans are both coming off 3-13 seasons in 2015 (Titans were also 2-14 in 2014), with Cleveland last making the postseason in the 2002 season, while Tennessee’s playoff drought does not go back nearly as far (Titans went 13-3 in 2008). As the teams get set to hook up in Nashville on Sunday, the Browns are 0-5 (the NFL’s lone winless team), while the Titans check in at 2-3, having won 16-15 at Detroit in Week 2 and 30-17 at Miami last Sunday.

Cleveland: Finding a QB who can stay healthy or play effectively, as been a ongoing challenge for the Browns. RG III began the season as the starter but the Browns are on their third starting QB already in 2016 (five players have lined up under center through five games). Griffin was lost for the year with a shoulder injury in Week 1, and Week 2 starter Josh McCown (also a shoulder issue), just resumed practicing this week. Rookie Cody Kessler out of USC (chest/ribs) was knocked out last week but is expected to start here. He was 49 of 73 (67.1%) for 467 yards with one TD and one INT in Week 3 and 4 starts, then was replaced last week after getting injured by Charlie Whitehurst, who was just released with an injury settlement on Tuesday. Cleveland’s only averaging 17.4 PPG, which hardly bodes well when the defense is allowing 402.6 YPG (29th) and 29.6 PPG (30th). Hence the team’s 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS record in 2016.

Tennessee: The Titans wanted to become more of a “smash-mouth” team on offense, acquiring DeMarco Murray in a trade and drafting Heisman-winner Derrick Henry out of Alabama. The team is second in the NFL in rushing at 148.6 YPG, while averaging 5.0 YPC. QB Mariota completes 60.6% but has thrown for just 1088 yards with a modest 7-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The Titans have had trouble scoring, as the team’s 18.4 PPG average ranks barely ahead of Cleveland's 17.4 mark. However, Tennessee is coming off its best offensive game in that 30-17 win at Miami, rolling up 398 yards (almost 50 yards more than the team has averaged on the season).

The pick: Cleveland may be the league’s lone winless team but the Browns have beaten the Titans in each of the last two seasons. The Titans look like the better team but Tennessee entered this season having gone 1-7 SU at home in both 2015 and 2014, beating only the Jags each year. They’ve opened this season 0-2 SU at home, giving them a 2-16 SU mark at home since the start of the 2014 season. Maybe you want to lay points with them but I sure don’t! Take the points.

Randall the Handle

THE BEST

Jaguars (1-3) at Bears (1-4)

One win does not change the course of the shameful Jaguars. Winning is something the Jaguars are not accustomed to. That makes it difficult to recommend them at a short price such as this one. Oddly, they have been a three-point underdog or less in all four of their games so far, amassing a 2-2 against the spread mark (ATS). However, one cover was their lone win in England two weeks ago against putrid Indianapolis while the other was as home dog to Baltimore in a 19-17 loss when taking 2½ points. Jacksonville’s only real road game this year resulted in a 38-14 crushing at one-win San Diego. The Jags have just one road triumph in past 18 away games within the USA. The Bears may not be winning but they seem to be finding a groove with QB Brian Hoyer (three consecutive 300+ yards passing) and they’ve split two home games by losing to Philadelphia before beating Detroit. This is a winnable game for them. TAKING: BEARS –2½

Ravens (3-2) at Giants (2-3)

The Ravens always seem to be in close games. Even with last year’s injury-riddled team, Baltimore competed and stayed close to its opponents. None of its games this year have been decided by more than six points. However, this marks the first time this season that John Harbaugh’s team is being offered points. We like that. We are especially fond when those points are being donated by a team mired in a three-game losing streak with change not appearing imminent. Modern day quarterbacks have too much talent and too many rules that allow them to succeed when given time in the pocket. The G-Men are a victim of this as their pass rush has just four sacks on the season to rank dead last of 32 teams. Timing couldn’t be worse as the Ravens fired their offensive coordinator last week and new guy Marty Mornhinweg figures to unbridle the experienced arm of QB Joe Flacco against a beat up New York secondary. TAKING: RAVENS +3

Falcons (4-1) at Seahawks (3-1)

Have to hand it to the Falcons after winning in Denver last week to improve their record to 4-1 while taking command of the NFC South. In his ninth season, QB Matt Ryan is putting up scary numbers with a league leading 1,740 passing yards and 12 TD’s, second only to Ben Roethlisberger’s 15 majors. While we don’t want to detract too much from Matty Ice’s early accomplishments, those stats were amassed against some of the league’s worst defences. In fact, those numbers took a hit last week when despite winning, Ryan was just 15 of 28 for 267 yards and one touchdown in that 23-16 victory. Now Atlanta will be travelling again when flying up to Seattle to face one of the league’s stingiest defensive units. The Seahawks top the league in yards allowed with a paltry 264 per game while allowing the third fewest points at just 13.5 per contest. Seattle’s offence is waking up and having two weeks to prepare for this game should provide another uptick. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –6½

THE REST

Bengals (2-3) at Patriots (4-1)

C’mon oddsmaker. Get a grip. As far back as June, gaming provider CG Technology released spreads for the first 16 weeks of the NFL season. This game had New England spotting four points. Granted, the Bengals have been a disappointment and the Patriots are a team that every opponent and bookmaker fears. But this is clearly an overreaction and that equates to value. To put this into perspective, none of Cincinnati’s predicted lines in its four games to date were out by more than one point. We understand how good the Pats can be as well as the next guy but we also know that Brady’s return against the lowly Browns might be having too great of an influence here. This is a lot of points. TAKING: BENGALS +9

Panthers (1-4) at Saints (1-3)

The Saints had nine months to fix their dreadful defence and failed to do so. What would make anyone think that this leaky unit was magically repaired during a bye week? New Orleans’ stop unit ranks 29th in passing, 31st in overall yardage and 32nd in points allowed. Truth is that management or Sean Payton or both don’t care about defence. How else can you explain the team dishing out a mere 21 million to the secondary, representing just 14.5% of money against the cap and three million under the league average? The Panthers have pass defence issues of their own in addition to MVP Cam Newton still being under concussion protocol. But Newton practided this week and with his team’s backs to the wall, Carolina should take care of business on this day. TAKING: PANTHERS –3

Steelers (4-1) at Dolphins (1-4)

Spinning an endorsement for the Dolphins would just seem fishy. Miami’s only win required overtime against the porous Browns. Pittsburgh is among the most beloved and popular betting teams in the league. Games like this are tough on the oddsmaker as he is required to send out a pointspread that will ideally draw equal money on both teams. While we understand the line posted for this one, there is an inflation rate built into it and that presents an opportunity, no matter how unpalatable it may seem. Aside from the premium required to play the Steelers, Pittsburgh could easily be looking past this game to its home clash with the Patriots next week. Also know that the Fins gave both the Pats and the Seahawks strong challenges in pair of losses. Enough room to do same here. TAKING: DOLPHINS +7½

49ers (1-4) at Bills (3-2)

Unusual to see Buffalo in this price range but without insulting the Bills, this is a testament to how dreadful the 49ers are. Already weak, San Francisco has lost some key players to injuries while the offence has second rate players at the skill positions. As if it matters, QB Blaine Gabbert has been benched for useless Colin Kaepernick. Meanwhile, the Bills have won three straight and return home after inspiring wins at New England and Los Angeles. The offence is in a better gear since switching its offensive coordinator and the defence is getting after opposing quarterbacks with 12 sacks in previous three games. Let’s also not forget how RB LeSean McCoy would like to stick it to Chip Kelly after their tumultuous relationship in Philadelphia. Give the points. TAKING: BILLS –7½

Rams (3-2) at Lions (2-3)

Bad coaching has anchored this Rams team but there is enough talent to overcome Jeff Fisher’s ineptitude against a team like these Lions. Detroit’s inability to run the ball has put undue stress on Matthew Stafford’s arm and that makes spotting any points a grave concern. Both times the Leos were favoured this year, they not only failed to cover but lost each game straight up, against the Titans and Bears no less. The Rams have the defenders to keep Stafford in check while they rely on the unheralded leadership of QB Case Keenum. Much chastised, Keenum has covered nine of past 12 when cast in the underdog’s role. The Rams have a multitude of notable injuries, preventing us from ranking this game higher but L.A. has enough on the field to keep this one close. TAKING: RAMS +3½

Browns (0-5) at Titans (2-3)

Seriously, how bad must a team be to be lined up as a seven-point underdog to Tennessee? Playing the Browns is commonly a flat spot for many teams. That won’t be the case here. Firstly, the disgraceful AFC South is up for grabs and the Titans will be in the thick of things should they get to .500 here. Secondly, Tennessee has embarrassingly lost to these Browns each of the past two seasons and they’d like nothing better to avenge those defeats in a big way. They can do it. The Titans are home after a strong offensive and defensive showing in win at Miami. RB DeMarco Murray’s pounding ground attack makes QB Marcus Mariota all the more efficient. Cleveland can’t stop anyone and the carousel of quarterbacks prevents any rhythm on offence. TAKING: TITANS –7

Eagles (3-1) at Redskins (3-2)

The Redskins appear to have fixed some things after winning three straight after a 0-2 start. Off a road loss and travelling again, asking the Eagles to spot points in this divisional battle has its uncertainties. Philly was a three-point favourite in both matchups a year ago with the Redskins taking both straight up. Yes, Philly might be better this season but further proof is still required. The Eagles have posted some strong defensive numbers in early going but their first two games were against two struggling offences from Cleveland and Chicago and they amped up for state rival Pittsburgh in an impressive showing. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has settled down after a wobbly start, completing better than 70% of his passes in previous two games and the ‘Skins pivot has covered seven of nine as underdog against NFC East foes. TAKING: REDSKINS +2½

Chiefs (2-2) at Raiders (4-1)

Still not certain how trustworthy the Raiders might be but we’re definitely convinced that the Chiefs are as unreliable as dollar store electronics. Kansas City’s two wins have come at home in an overtime effort versus one-win San Diego, followed by victory over another one-win team in the Jets. Andy Reid’s team is winless in two road games, being pummelled 62-26 combined. Oakland has defensive issues but most teams defensive stats would be bloated had they faced Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers as Oakland has. Against moderate Tennessee and Baltimore, the Raiders gave up less than 500 yards passing combined. The Chiefs fall more into the latter category with Alex Smith’s pop-gun offence. Prefer emerging star QB Derek Carr spotting small home points. TAKING: RAIDERS –1

Cowboys (4-1) at Packers (3-1)

How did the league miss putting this one in prime time? The Packers are home for third consecutive week but they are stepping up in company as the red-hot Cowboys, winners of four straight, come for a visit. The Price might seem a bit short but linemakers are genuinely impressed with Dallas. Rookie QB Dak Prescott continues to shine with both his poise and ability. An upgraded defence has not allowed three previous opponents to reach 20 points. Offensively, the ’Boys have been able to win without star wideout Dez Bryant, who could be back this week. The amazing play of rookie RB Ezekiel Elliot has also been a big contributor. The Packers are darn tough at home but something is amiss with them as offence is yet to get untracked. Have to take what’s being offered. TAKING: COWBOYS +4½

Colts (2-3) at Texans (3-2)

Years of an inept front office has put the Colts in a position where even skilled QB Andrew Luck can’t bail them out. He is void of protection, a ground game and the defence is abysmal. Residing in the awful AFC South helps Indy’s cause but even that advantage appears to be dissipating. The Texans have the most talent in the division but were void of a quarterback. Despite spending big bucks to acquire Brock Osweiler, the problem still exists as the young QB has not shown the necessary skills to take the Texans to the next level. Still, the Colts have battered this host in six of past seven and three straight on this field. If Osweiler is to pay any dividends, it has to be here and there are no excuses not to in this Sunday night featured game. TAKING: TEXANS –3

Jets (1-4) at Cardinals (2-3)

The Jets continue to spiral in their difficult first half schedule and while Arizona has not performed to expectations, things won’t get easier here. This will be New York’s fourth road game in five weeks and it arrives here without the services of WR Eric Decker. Not having Decker allows the Cardinals to pay special attention to Brandon Marshall and making erratic QB Ryan Fitzpatrick look for others. That has a way of not working out too well, especially on the road where Fitz has thrown just two touchdowns and six interceptions in three losses. Arizona is expected to have QB Carson Palmer back after missing last week and even though the veteran pivot has not been at his best, facing the Jets 31st ranked pass defence should help take out this downtrodden foe. TAKING: CARDINALS -7½

Mike Lundin

Ravens vs. Giants
Play: Under 45

The Baltimore Ravens have scored just a total of 37 points through their last two games in home setbacks to Oakland and Washington. They'll have a new offensive coordinator for this contest, but I don't expect to see any significant improvements right away.

The Ravens have been doing alright at the defensive side of the ball though and are allowing only 17.6 points per game on the season. Here they'll take on a New York Giants team that is coming off three consecutive defeats, and it managed only 16 points with a total of 221 yards of offense and just 14 first downs in a 23-16 loss at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. They've scored more than 20 points just once this season.

Both Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have turned the ball over plenty of times with five scores and four picks each on the season. New York was without both of its top running backs against Green Bay and neither Shane Vereen (triceps) or Rashad Jennings (thumb) is 100 percent confirmed for this contest.

Under is 5-2 in Ravens' last seven games overall with last season included and 4-1 in the Giants' five games this season. I'm looking for a low-scoring game at MetLife Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Michael Alexander

Bengals vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots -8

Tom. Brady blitzed the Browns in the debut of his return passing for 406 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions as they Pats had a 10-point cover (501-267 yard edge), which went against the Pats' norm of not covering as a double digit favorite. Home team is 38-15 ATS in Patriot games, and New England is also 12-1-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite. The Bengals come in at only 2-3 (last year they started 8-0; 7-0-1 ATS). QB Dalton has only 5 touchdown with 2 interceptions for the season, with 17 sacks. At the beginning of the season this game looked to be a potential playoff preview. Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS on the road vs AFC East opponents.

Brandon Shively

Eagles vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins +3

I like the Redskins as a home dog here. The Redskins put up over 400 yards of offense in both games last year . They have scored 23 points or more the last 4 meetings.

This season, the Eagles have a very efficient offense with rookie Carson Wentz, but there is going to be some regression taking place as teams study more film of Wentz. He has a 84% completion rate against the blitz and that number has to come back closer to the NFL average. Wentz has yet to get sacked from the blitz also. That is something else that has to change. Once he starts getting hit once or twice, some shaky throws should follow. Starting right tackle Lane Johnson just got suspended for 10 games so now they will have a rookie making his first start on the road. I expect the Redskins defense to be aggressive and bring the pressure.

The Eagles are 0-2 SU and ATS their L2 as a road favorite against the Redskins. Washington went 5-1 ATS as a home underdog last year.They are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog their L10 vs the NFC East. This year, the Skins lost their first game as a home dog then lost their 2nd game as a small favorite. Those two losses (Steelers and Cowboys) don’t look bad on paper now. Washington rallied to win their following three games giving them momentum going into this game on Sunday. While Jordan Reed might have to sit with another concussion, look out for Jamison Crowder who returned a punt for a touchdown last week and figures to be more active in the passing game. Speaking of the passing game, DeSean Jackson will be playing with a chip on his shoulder against Philly who dumped him after the 2014 season. Jackson Crowder caught 9 of 15 targets last year against the Eagles. Jackson only played in 1 game catching 4 balls for 60 yards and is averaging over 22 yards a reception against the Eagles in 3 career games.

I think the Redskins defense puts the pressure on Wentz and he makes some rookie mistakes. I also think the Redskins O-Line protects Kirk Cousins and he exposes the Eagles secondary. The only thing keeping me off of this game as a top rated play is the fact that the Eagles and Redskins have played two common opponents this year, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Philly outgained Pitt by 175 yards and the Browns by 115 yards, while Washington got outgained by 53 yards against Pittsburgh and 79 yards against the Browns, giving Philly an edge there. Still, the Redskins are definitely worth a shot on Sunday. Be patient and see if you can get a +3 or possible +3.5 as there is a lot of money coming in on the Eagles this week.

John Ryan

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +9

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-10 over the last 5 seasons good for 75% winners. Play on underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG). Another proven system supports this play posting a 142-88 since 1983 good for 61.7% winners and made a big 45.2 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt since 1992 and they are 7-4 against the spread versus New England since 1992. Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 18 points per game but only giving up 22 per game and the Patriots welcomed back Tom Brady and rolled over Cleveland last week, while the Bengals were getting embarrassed down at Dallas. Usually when a playoff caliber team gets embarrassed they come back and play well the next week. The Patriots don't bring a running attack with a strong offensive line like the Cowboys and we expect Andy Dalton to make enough plays to keep this one close. The Bengals are only giving up 224 yards through the air this year and we think that will also come into play with the big number. Take the Bengals and the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE -7 over Cleveland

It just never gets any better. The Browns have now had four different quarterbacks leave their game and while each opponent is scoring a little more, the Browns just score a little less. Cleveland is ill-equipped to handle all these injuries and so the attempt to right the ship is an exercise in futility. Every week of every season the Browns lose and when they do win, it is a loss in spirit. It ends up every week with every player on that Cleveland squad throwing up their hands and saying, “Jesus fucking Christ, what was the point of all that? It’s all part of the same progressively numbing existence. How can a team be this bad for so long? Its fans have been stripped of their clothing, and their freedom, and their dignity, issued drab brown correctional uniforms and forced to walk the yard until they die. Last week the Brownies wanted desperately to compete with New England and not make life easy for Brady’s return. It was 21-0 before the fans got into their seats and once again Cleveland looked like the dregs that they are.

We understand that we are of the buy low philosophy but in this case we are buying low on the Titans in what is perceived as inflated points. You see, the Titans are not known. They have had no market appeal for years and they are NEVER favored in this range, thus the points may look appealing. However, we love the direction of this team, not to mention their determination and desire to win. Tennessee is 0-2 at home and now this opportunity comes along. When a team is winning on the road, it’s a good sign. Tennessee’s stifling defense has held the opposition to 17 points or less in four of its five games. The Titans have a very stout pass defense, which has only allowed four passing scores all year in five games. No RB has gone off for more than 82 yards against them either. Tennessee is trending right while everything bad is snowballing into a disaster for Cleveland. Both physically and mentally, Cleveland is not well-prepped to compete this week and we’re convinced it will show up on the scoreboard. A team focused on snapping an 0-2 home record should easily take care of business here.

San Francisco +8½ over BUFFALO

The last time we saw the 49ers, they were embarrassed at home in prime time against the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Since then, much has been printed about the shortcomings of head coach Chip Kelly, who the media has continually ripped apart. Wherever Frisco Chip goes, bad things are bound to happen, as his ego and arrogance gets in the way of everything he’s capable of.

After another poor performance by Blaine Gabbert, Frisco Chip is ready to pull the trigger on backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick. You know, the same guy that took this team to the Super Bowl just four seasons ago. At the time Ron Jaworski said Kaepernick, “Could be one of the greatest ever”. Jaworski is now in the state lunatic bin. Kidding aside, Kaepernick has to be foaming at the mouth for this opportunity. He also creates matchup problems for any defense with his mobility. We also get the benefit of his off the field actions completely overshadowing everything he's ever done on the gridiron. Kaepernick has now had weeks to take it all in. He’s been an observer after he was a starter for quite some time and he’s not past his prime. Observing and studying without having the pressure of playing can really be beneficial. Many great QB’s of the past took that route, including Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Steve Young among others. Many see Kaepernick as untouchable based on his views but we don't care about those political issues when betting on NFL football. All we care about is the tremendous value we get here on a team, QB and Coach that nobody is anxious to back. Kaepernick gives the 49ers the best chance to win.

Two weeks into the season and everyone in Buffalo was ready to run the Ryan brothers out of town after that poor Thursday night game versus the Jets. Now they are ready to give them the keys to the city after the Bills whacked the Cardinals, shut out the Brady-less Patriots and then traveled to L.A. and won a tough road game versus the Rams. Three wins in three weeks and the Bills’ stock is through the roof but buying into their success at this price would be a big mistake. First, Buffalo is not that good. Tyrod Taylor is not making good throws or good decisions but it has all been masked in the three victories. Taylor has only produced two games with more than 124 passing yards. The passing offense is almost non-existent. Buffalo’s three-game winning streak coincides with them dumping their old offensive coordinator three weeks ago. It’s all an illusion because the offense has not been better at all. Buffalo has not been favored in this range since the days of Jim Kelly and the four successive Super Bowl appearances. Tyrod Taylor is not Jim Kelly and this edition of the Bills could not even hold a candle to that edition of the Bills. This one has upset potential written all over it and thus, we’re all over the inflated points.

Note: +9 is available but you'll pay a little extra juice to get that number. We are very satisfied with +8½ and less juice at Pinny. Waiting until Sunday is also an option but that could also backfire. Being content with +8½, we'll pull the trigger now.

Cincinnati +9 over NEW ENGLAND

Tom Brady is back with a chip on his shoulder. The Cleveland Browns felt the full effects of Brady’s wrath, as the future Hall of Famer played like there were 11 Roger Goodell's lined up on the other side. Brady took no prisoners, as he dismantled and overwhelmed the Brownies defense. The game was never in doubt, as New England scored 21 in a hurry and cruised to a 33-13 victory. Plus, Belichick loves to stick it to Cleveland after he was fired by the “old” Browns over 20 years ago. Now let’s get real, shall we? That was Cleveland with a fifth string QB. The Patriots are almost priced in the same range against Cinci as they were against the Browns. That is ludicrous. We always encourage bettors to buy low and sell high and bettors will certainly have that opportunity this weekend. Last week the Bengals lost by 14-points to the Cowboys.

The Bengals didn't even show up in that 28-14 loss to Dallas. That score was actually flattering to Cinci, as they were down 28-0 before getting a couple garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter. We're actually going to give them a pass for that pathetic effort, as they may have been looking ahead to this showdown in New England. The Patriots are the team that most NFL clubs strive to be and any chance to take a shot at them is viewed as a big opportunity. Surely, Cincinnati is eager to see how they measure up to the NFL's elite and it sure does not hurt that the number posted by oddsmakers is humiliating to their egos. It’s also motivating and locker room material. Hanging in that locker room is a big chalk board. On that chalk board, the number 9 will be written in bold, big print.

The Patriots opened as 7½-point favorites but the public has pushed that number up to its current price. This overwhelming public support has caused an already inflated number to be even more inflated. It may also interest you to learn that Andy Dalton has gone 22-10 against the spread (68.8 percent) as an underdog during the regular season in his career and he’s never received this number of points. Frankly, we do not care if the Bengals lose by 30 points here. What we care about is playing value and now we get a talented team + massive points in a game the Patriots were a projected favorite of -4½ two weeks ago. We are absolutely, 100% going with the best of it here.

SEATTLE -6½ over Atlanta

The Falcons have been an offensive juggernaut this season and their big time numbers are getting a lot of attention. Atlanta took their show on the road to Denver in a classic matchup of offense versus defense last week. Offense won the day, as Atlanta's two-headed running attack of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman ripped up the Broncos for over 110 yards on the ground. The Broncos rallied with 13 fourth quarter points but the porous Falcons D hung on. While the Falcons have been exciting to watch when Matt Ryan has the ball in his hands, their defense is still a trouble spot. The Falcons are 26th in total defense and schedule makers did them no favors this week by sending them out on the road to face a well-rested Seattle team that has one of the top defensive units in the game.

The Seahawks got their bye at the perfect time with many key players banged up early including quarterback Russell Wilson. It's been a mixed bag for Seattle this season, as they've looked awful in games versus the Dolphins and Rams. Their wins have come against Miami, San Francisco and the Jets, not exactly a murderer’s row. The Seahawks only put up big points once and that was against the 'Niners so it's not hard to see why they may not be an appealing choice this week. When everyone is buying, that’s usually about the time we like to sell and that is precisely what we’re doing here.

This is a great situational spot for Seattle and its #1 ranked defense. The Falcons have got to be running on fumes after a tough game in Denver against the Champs. Playing at that elevation takes a toll too. Now Atlanta must pack up again and will be playing at sea level in Seattle. Constant travel and the physical exhaustion that comes with it is something these players battle all the time. Add playing in two extreme elevations in back-to-back weeks and it gets worse. Most will not factor these human elements into their choice here but this is a brutal stretch for Atlanta. If you include their Week 2 trip to Oakland, this team will have traveled over 11,000 miles in the air round trip this season. A prime time win three weeks ago against New Orleans followed by back-to-back games against the two Super Bowl participants last year (both Atlanta victories no less) and not only will the Falcons be fighting the emotional letdowns, they'll be fighting trhe aformentioned travel too. We would not be surprised if they came out flat here. In fact, we expect it and we also expect a blowout. After reading this, you'll need not wonder why they got blown out either.

Los Angeles +3 over DETROIT

The Rams were 3-1 heading into last week’s tilt with the Bills but the general consensus was that they were not a legit 3-1 team. That general consensus may have been right, as Buffalo went in there and beat the Rams 30-19. What wasn’t legit was the Bills victory, as L.A. had a big edge everywhere except in the turnover department. L.A. turned it over three times while Buffalo did not turn it over even once and that is the only reason the Rams lost, otherwise they would be 4-1. Now we get to buy low on them.

What we do know is we like these Rams much more as a dog. It’s a role they seem to relish in with outright wins versus Seattle, Arizona and Tampa. Two of those three wins have come on the road. After a home loss last week, this trip to Detroit just might be what the doctor ordered, as they draw a Lions team that is having real troubles of their own, which inlcudes not being able to stop anybody and that includes Case Keenum.

Earlier in the year, the Lions were putting up big offensive numbers and their reputation as a real life fantasy team rather than a quality NFL football club was fully intact but things are changing for the worse. The Lions escaped last week with a 24-23 win over Philly but they were lifeless in the second half after storming out of the gate to a 21-3 lead before Philly made it 21-10 just before the half. Furthermore, the Eagles were eating up chunks of yards all game on this 24th ranked defense and they are not the first team to do that either. Last week, a bloody fortune was bet against Detroit when Philly went into the Lions’ den as a small road favorite. Those that wagered against Detroit and are not anxious to do so again here are a week late on the Lions. This would be the week to step in against them, as the Rams are a blue collar team that travels well while the Lions are erratic as hell and can seldom be trusted when spotting points.