Wunderdog
Cincinnati @ New England
Pick: Cincinnati +9.5
Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in just six of their last 22 games yet they are getting a ton of points in this one. This team has talent on both sides of the line, but they face the great Tom Brady in this game. The Bengals are off a bad game at Dallas, further encouraging bettors to take the Patriots. But, memories are short. Two weeks ago the Bengals crushed another AFC East team in the Dolphins, 22-7, with a dominant defensive performance. The Bengals are #11 in the NFL defensively in yards allowed. They held Miami to 189 passing yards and just 62 rushing. Cincinnati also went on the road and beat the Jets, 23-22 earlier this season. The Bengals have an experienced, balanced offense with QB Andy Dalton (five TDs, two picks), RB Jeremy Hill and one of the top wideouts in the league in AJ Green (518 yards). Dalton is second in the NFL in yards passing and is up to a 67.4-percent completion percentage, the eighth best in the league. Cincinnati is better coached than many people think and a strong bounce-back squad at 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after a loss. The Patriots still have questions on the offensive line, which has played better than last year. Let's remember who Tom and company played last week. Today they will not be facing the Browns and this is a terrific Cincinnati defensive front. The Bengals are 11-5-1 ATS against the AFC and on a 9-2 ATS run on the road. They haven't been this big an underdog in two years, winning 27-10 at the Saints as a +8.5 puppy. Play the Bengals to keep it close.
James Patrick Sports
Steelers vs. Dolphins
Play: Steelers
Two teams headed in different directions and have suffered key injuries to starting players a match-up in Week 6 of the NFL and it will take place this Sunday in Miami. The Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for (680) yards and nine scores without an interception in his last two games for Pittsburgh. The (34)-year-old Roethlisberger with league-leading (15) touchdowns looks to continue his torrid pace on Sunday. The reeling Miami Dolphins have allowed (5.9) yards per play this season to rate as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. The Dolphins have not had much success at home in recent years as well.
Dave Cokin
Buffalo -9
It's the return to a starting QB role for Colin Kaepernick this weekend as the 49ers take on the Bills. Because of his controversial standing these days, there will be an unusual amount of focus on this game, although much of the social media conversation will be more about CK than what is taking place on the football field.
I'm not getting into Kaepernick's politics. My task is to concentrate on the game and try to find the winning side. But Kaepernick clearly figures into the analysis, and in fact he's probably the key figure in this game as far as that goes.
I am frequently of the opinion that a QB change can be a positive for a struggling team. It's a great way to stir things up and create some excitement. Maybe that will be the case here, and if it plays out that way, I could end up having a very difficult time cashing a winning ticket on Buffalo.
But I'm really having trouble making a case for Kaepernick having a good game here. The guy has regressed somewhat remarkably from when he first arrived in the NFL. He simply isn't close to where he was back in 2012 and 2013, and I'm not seeing why that's suddenly about to change this Sunday.
I'm also not going to overlook the sudden improvement in the Buffalo defense. Sure, the Patriots were very shorthanded two weeks ago when they were blanked on home by the Bills. That was still a really impressive outing for the Buffalo defense. Last week, the Bills weren't quite as dominant, but they made the big plays when they mattered most and earned a nice road win at the Rams. The Bills are on a winning streak, while the 49ers have been in clunker mode since the impressive Week One shutout against the Rams. I've been around long enough to fully realize that momentum in the NFL can be very fleeting. And let's just say that nothing in the NFL can shock me at this point. But one thing I'm 100% sure of is that the Buffalo fan base will be at fever pitch on Sunday. They're excited about their team being on a hot streak, and it's an absolute certainty the crowd is going to be going crazy in an effort to put added pressure on Kaepernick. I can definitely see him committing a turnover or two here, especially given the potential rust factor. Steep number to be sure, but I'm siding with the Bills minus the points in this game.
DAVE COKIN
DODGERS -125
The Cubs won 103 games in the regular season, and they’re already 4-1 in the post-season. And here I am laying a price against them at Wrigley Field tonight. At first glance, and maybe at second as well, that probably doesn’t make a lot of sense.
But that’s exactly what I’m planning on doing. I’m well aware that Clayton Kershaw, while absolutely the best pitcher on the planet, has not been the ultimate playoff horse. I’m also not ignorant of the fact that Kyle Hendricks has been nothing short of amazing at home all season. Maybe the microscopic 1.32 Wrigley ERA is a little deflated based on the metrics, but there’s simply no denying that he has been a monster at home this year.
Here’s the flip side. Kershaw’s post season ledger is still very small sample in comparison to his overall numbers, and while I respect the “clutch” factor, I put more weight into the entire Kershaw picture. Simply stated, he’s one of the best pitchers I’ve ever seen and when putting together all the numbers, I end up with Kershaw being underpriced here, and by what I’d have to call a pretty substantial margin.
I already know many of the people reading this space today, and maybe even the majority, will disagree with this opinion and will be firing on the Cubs as home dogs. I can’t fault that logic even a little bit. But my baseball methodology is very numbers-oriented, and based on my calculations, Kershaw should be at least -150 tonight. Yes, even against the Cubs and even at Wrigley Field. At what amounts to a discount price, I’m therefore backing Kershaw and the Dodgers tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Saints +3
Even when Carolina was hitting on all cylinders LY, it failed to cover either meeting vs. New Orleans, including once with Luke McCown in for Drew Brees. Cam Newton (missed Monday vs. Bucs) back in fold, but he is being advised to curtail his noted swashbuckling after recent concussion. Besides, Newton can't solve Carolina's problems in a secondary that misses departed CB Josh Norman and allowed Julio Jones a PGA driver's worth of yards in Atlanta. Saints' banged-up defense should also be a bit healthier after bye week.
Vegas Butcher
CIN @ NE -9
Tom Brady came back last week and looked in mid-season form already. Of course he was facing a bad Cleveland defense, as Cincy should in theory provide a stiffer test. Still, important to note that the Bengals only rank 19th defensively and have a 17th ranked pass-rush. They shouldn’t slow down NE much. The key to this game is figuring out if the Bengals can keep up with New England offensively. Patriots are only 24th on D, and 27th against the pass. Of course with Eifert out, Cincy’s only true passing-game threat is AJ Green. If Belichick takes him away (he’s known to key on opponent’s top weapon), is Dalton good enough to move the chains via his secondary targets? On the season he ranks 17th in PY/A and 20th in QBR. We’ll see what he’s made of after this one. I want to emphasize that while the Bengals got absolutely crushed @ Dallas last week, you can’t necessarily expect the same outcome in this one. This is still a decent team that is in a bounce-back spot. They’re 2-3 on the year, but all of their losses came against top-10 opponents (PIT, DEN, DAL). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a competitive game in this one. My model has it at -8.8 NE so this one is an easy pass. PASS
BAL @ NYG -3
The firing of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman should provide a bit of a boost to the offense. I mean, how can the Ravens only run in 19 out of 69 (28%) offensive snaps last week in a close game when facing a Washington defense that ranks dead-last in runD? Oh, and that’s with them averaging 6.2 YPC. Even if you take away their longest run (35 yards), they still averaged 4.6 YPC over their other 18. I don’t get it. Regardless, I expect Mornhinweg to inject some life into the offense (at least in the short) term, and there’s no better team to do it against than the Giants, who rank dead-last in their ability to rush the QB, right?. That is a bit surprising though as both JPP and Vernon are excellent pass-rushers. Will New York finally apply more pressure on a QB against a Ravens team that is missing their top-2 offensive linemen (Yanda and Stanley)? I would expect a much better offensive game-plan from the Ravens though I’m not sure if the execution will improve, especially given the fact that their best WR Steve Smith Sr. is out. Defensively, the #4 Ravens D is going up against a 19th ranked Giants O. The key here is that Baltimore ranks #1 in run-D, and if they eliminate that threat and make Eli Manning one-dimensional, they could have success. Eli is not a type of a QB to carry a team consistently, and he struggles when the offense becomes predictable. CJ Mosely is out though and he’s an absolute stud. There are just too many question marks in this one for my liking. Ravens are missing a ton of talent: Moseley, Dumervil, Yanda, Stanley, Steve Smith. All of these are excellent players, and their loss won’t be easy to replace. Giants rank 10th against the run, so unlike Washington last week, NY should be able to be much more stout in that area, and trusting Flacco, a QB who ranks 28th in Off-Eff and 40th PY/A, to carry the offense without Smith isn’t something that I’m ready to do just yet. Especially on the road. Lean: NYG -3
CAR @ NO +2.5
Wait a minute, a 1-4 Panthers team is a ‘favorite’ on the road? Sure Newton is back but the Panthers are 1-3 with him, only beating a bad San Fran team in the process. Now they’ll take on Drew Brees and Co. coming off a BYE. My model has this one at -2.2 NO, so there’s almost 5-points of pure value on this one. The Saints are going to exploit Carolina’s secondary at will. This is a really bad group without any dynamic playmakers. On the other side, the Panthers should be able to take advantage of the Saint’s poor D. No pass-rush, no ability to stop the run, and no playmakers in the secondary. I think we’ll see both teams score points at will, but a team coming off a BYE, playing at home, and featuring a better offense has the edge in this one. When that team is an underdog, well then that edge becomes a must-play. Lean: NO +2.5
PIT @ MIA +7
In the off-season the Steelers were -3.5 in this matchup. Now the spread is 100% higher than that. The question is, can we back Miami here as a home underdog? This could be one of the so-called ‘sandwich’ spots for the Steelers. Off two huge wins against KC and NYJ at home, they travel to face a mediocre opponent prior to a big home showdown with the Patriots. One issue to consider is that Pittsburgh is dealing with a number of key injuries on defense. They lost DL Heyward which makes the interior of the line much weaker. And that’s already being without Shazier at the LB level. Miami is getting both Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil back this week, solidifying the O-line. Steelers rank 20th in pass-D and 30th in QB-pressure, and with a stronger O-line, Miami should have more time to throw. Another matchup to watch is Landry on Steelers’ slot CB, Davis, one of the worst CB’s in the league according to PFF. Finally, Arian Foster is set to rejoin the starting lineup, and his impact shouldn’t be overlooked. With Pittsburgh’s interior D getting weaker, I like Miami’s chances of moving the ball here. Of course on the other side, this Miami D is an absolute disaster. Pittsburgh’s elite offense should have no issues putting up points. To make matters worse, Reshad Jones (4th ranked safety), the only elite player in this secondary, sustain a groin injury and was unable to practice Wed and Thur. He was very limited on Friday. He’s listed as GTD but if he misses the game, Steelers could potentially put up 40+ in this one. In any case, the spread moved from -7.5 to -7, which makes the side much tougher to play. Lean: PASS @ -7….MIA @ +7.5
JAC @ CHI -1.5
The Bears looked good on offense the last 3 weeks with Hoyer and Howard taking over but they’ve faced #25 (DAL), #31 (DET), and #30 (IND) pass defenses in that span. This week, they’ll go up against Jacksonville’s 7th ranked pass D. This team struggled against GB and SD early in the season, but against BAL and IND recorded pass-D DVOA of -43% and -34% respectively. Insertion of Jack into the starting lineup and growth of Ramsey on the outside is really making this defense tough to pass against. Of course one area that Chicago will exploit is via the run, as the Jags rank 29th in runD. If Chicago pounds the ball with Howard, controls the clock, they should have a strong shot of winning this one. The line was Bears -3.5 in the off-season, and I’m not really sure why it’s below a FG in this matchup. Lean: CHI -1.5
SF @ BUF -9
My model has this one at -8.9 Bills, so the line seems to be ‘accurate’. But let’s not forget, that line is with Gabbert at QB through the first 5 weeks of the season. How do we account for the fact that Kaepernick is the new starter? Well, he’s probably even worse though his dual-play ability could be a factor in Kelly’s offense. Now with 10-days to prepare, could Kelly come up with a scheme to make this San Fran offense hard to defend with Kaep at QB? Maybe…he is supposed to be an offensive ‘genius’ after all. Bills are coming into this one off 3 straight wins, where they were underdogs in each (started out as an underdog @ LAR, until major injuries for LA made BUF a favorite prior to kick-off). Now they’re a huge favorite. Hmmm.. This team beat an underperforming Arizona squad, a NE team with a 3rd string QB, and the Rams squad missing 3/4ths of their dynamic D-Line. In the process the Bills logged a lot of travel, going to NE in week 4 and then cross-country to LA last week. I think a drop in their 3-week efficiency should be expected here. Still, even with all that, let’s not forget that Kaepernick went from a strong playmaker a few years back to a total pumpkin last season. He was horrendous as his accuracy, impatience, and turnover-proneness were all on display. Backing someone like that in a first game this season is dangerous. It’s just too big of an unknown. Backing the Bills after 3 straight wins as an underdog (except the LAR game technically), and now being an over-inflated favorite (were -7 in off-season in this matchup) is just as dangerous. Oh and it’s a 1 PM EST start time for a West Coast team, though like mentioned earlier, San Fran had 10 days to prepare/adjust to the time difference. Lean: PASS
LAR @ DET -3
The Rams lost to a Bills team that is proficient at running the ball, partly due to the fact that they were without 3/4ths of their starting D-line. All 3 were limited participants on Friday, after missing both Wed and Thur sessions. All 3 are GTD. The Lions don’t have the run-game that the Bills do, and their best option there, Theo Riddick is out for this one. That is especially troublesome for the passing game, as Riddick is a dynamite receiver out of the backfield. Detroit is already without Ebron, so this limits the number of playmakers they’ll have at their disposal. Expect Marvin Jones to be plenty busy, especially with Rams’ stud CB Trumaine Johnson sitting out. On the other side, Rams’ 31st ranked offense will take on Detroit’s 32nd ranked defense. While the Lions will get Ziggy Ansah back (he’s their best pass-rusher), they will be without Haloti Ngata and of course DeAndre Levy as well. My model has Detroit at -4.8 but without Riddick/Ebron/Ngata/Levy, and uncertainty of Rams’ D-line. Tough game to decipher, but without the run-game for Detroit, I don’t see having as good of a pure matchup against the Rams (assuming the D-line is still banged up) as Bills did last week. PASS for now but Lean LAR +3 if the key D-linemen are active
PHI @ WAS +3
Philly was a road favorite last week and lost @ DET, but statistically they were a better team. Turnovers and abnormal variance in penalty yardage was ultimately the difference. Now this team is listed as a road favorite once again as the bookmakers are clearly undeterred by that loss. I think matchup-wise, this game also favors Philly. Unlike Baltimore last week, I expect the Eagles to pound the ball on the ground all day long. They have Matthews, Sproles, Smallwood, and Barner at their disposal, to attack this 32nd ranked Washington runD. That should only make the 7th most efficient passO that much effective. On the other side, the #2 ranked Philly D (3rd against the pass and 1st in ASR%) should cause havoc. Missing Jordan Reed, I expect Cousins to be very uncomfortable. Last week he threw a pick-6 type of an INT, which Moseley proceeded to fumble into the end zone unfortunately, but I expect him to be even more careless with the football in this one. This Philly D is no joke and Cousins just doesn’t handle pressure well. He already has 5 INT’s on the season. I have this one at -5.7 Philly. Lean: PHI -3
KC @ OAK +1
The spread went from -1 OAK to +1 OAK, and I’m seeing +2’s pop up in some books. Andy Reid’s record coming off a BYE is impeccable. I think he’s like 15-3 ATS or something like that. And after getting shellacked by Pittsburgh prior to it, I’d expect the Chiefs to be ready. It should help that Jamaal Charles is healthy and ready to go. The Raiders on the other hand are coming off 5 straight 1-score games and it’ll be interesting how they do against a motivated Chiefs squad. KC ranks 6th in passD (even with that debacle at PIT) and they have the playmakers in the secondary to slow down this Raiders offense. I expect a good game, but Reid’s ability to get his team ready after a BYE-week gets the edge. Lean: KC -1
ATL @ SEA -6.5
This one could be a rainy affair as storms are possible on game day. Regardless, this will be an interesting matchup between the #1 ranked ATL offense and #1 ranked SEA D. Coming off a BYE, Russell Wilson was able to rest and get healthier. We’ll see if he’s able to utilize his wheels to improve his efficiency. Still, he might not need to against a bottom-10 unit like ATL D. One thing to note is that the Falcons are playing their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks. The line was -10 SEA in the off-season on this matchup, so this tells you how much it’s changed since then. Value is on the Falcons here but this is a tough spot to back them IMO. Lean: PASS
IND @ HOU -3
Houston is the worst offense in football, led by the worst QB in football. Though Luck has been erratic, he seems to always keep his team in the game till the end. I think we’ll see a close one here but at a FG road team is worth a look. Lean: IND +3
Rob Vinciletti
Bengals vs. Patriots
Play: Bengals +8
The Bengals are taking 9-10 points here and they should be much more competitive here than last week. The Bengals are 12-1 ats in non division games if coming off an NFC Game. Road dogs with revenge in game 6 that are off a loss have covered over 80% of the time if they are playing in at least their 4th road game. The Patriots are 0-8 ATS as a 7+ point favorite on l turf vs a non divisional opponent when they are off a game as a road favorite in which they did not commit a turnover. Look for The Bengals to hang around for the cover today.
Jeff Allen
Bills -8
Maybe Rex did know what he was doing letting his OC go after 0-2 start. The Bills have won three straight since and have done absolutely nothing wrong. Buff defense gives Kaepernick a rude welcome back into the league as Buff wins this one by three touchdowns.
Scott Spreitzer
Browns vs. Titans
Play: Browns +7
Cody Kessler has been upgraded to probable according to HC Hue Jackson. While the Browns only average about 17 ppg, the Titans are laying a lot of points for an offense that averages less than 19 ppg. We also note that QB Marcus Mariota has struggled badly at home with more INTs (12) than TD passes thrown (11). The Titans are 0-2 at home this season, scoring a grand total of just 26 points, and we all know how bad they have been ATS, including a 2-9-2 mark at home against teams with a losing road record. In fact, the Titans are 5-18-3 ATS in their last 26 home games, overall. We also expect both teams to attempt to establish the ground game with Tennessee ranked 2nd in the league in yards rushing per game and the Browns ranked 5th in the same category. A decent ground game by both teams keeps the clock running and leads to what we believe will be a tighter game.
Joseph D'Amico
Panthers vs. Saints
Play: Saints +2½
Carolina still fell short LW, in their 17-14 loss to Tampa Bay, despite doing almost everything right. Cam Newton returns here, but that really hasn't benefitted the team at all in 2016. The once-feared defense is allowing 27.0 PPG and must face Drew Brees in the Superdome. The QB will pick apart the Panthers secondary that allowed Matt Ryan to pass for over 503 yards a few weeks back. The Saints are 7-1 ATS their L8 following a bye week, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in the month of October, and 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC South.
Sean Murphy
Steelers vs. Dolphins
Play: Dolphins +7½
I'll grab the points with the Dolphins on Sunday as they host the Steelers.
Miami couldn't have looked much worse in its last two games, suffering blowout losses on the road against Cincinnati and at home against Tennessee last week - two struggling opponents. Here, the Fins take on a team that's firing on all cylinders in the Steelers.
I'm just not sure Pittsburgh can avoid some level of letdown in this matchup. The Steelers have scored 74 points in their last two games, coming in wins over the Chiefs and Jets at home. Now they hit the road where they last suffered an ugly 34-3 setback in Philadelphia back on September 25th.
These two teams last met back in 2013 when the Dolphins delivered a 34-28 road win over the Steelers (we actually won with Miami on that day). As bad as the Fins have been, I see this as a favorable matchup as they should be able to find some success through the air with their underrated receiving corps.
The Steelers are rolling along right now but I see this as a tough test against a desperate Dolphins squad. Look for Miami to stay inside the number.
Bryan Leonard
Browns vs. Titans
Play: Browns +7
Before the season started the Browns were expected to win 4 1/2 games and the Titans were slated for 6. Thus far the outcomes have been about as expected, even though Cleveland continues to have a revolving door at quarterback. Cleveland has been very competitive on the road this year and should have beaten Washington outright two weeks ago. The Browns won just three games a year ago but that included a 28-14 victory hosting these Titans.
Tennessee is 2-3 on the season but are winless at home, losing to Minnesota by 9 and Oakland by 7. Tennessee has been favored just five times the last 2 1/2 seasons, winning just once in straight up fashion.
Marc Lawrence
Rams vs. Lions
Play: Rams +3
Edges - Rams: 12-2 ATS off a non-division home game versus foe off a home game. Lions: 3-8 SUATS last eleven games versus NFC West opponents, including 1-4 ATS the last five games in this series. With Detroit off a 24-23 upset win over Philadelphia in which they were out-gained over 100 yards, and Los Angeles off a 30-19 loss to Buffalo in which they out-gained the Bills, we recommend a 1* play on the Rams.
Chip Chirimbes
Panthers vs. Saints
Play: Panthers -2½
Well, we will know if it's back to the 'drawing-board' for the future Panthers after this contest as Cam Newton returns san headache to lead Carolina back into playoff contention. New Orleans on the other hand hasn't make a tackle in well it seems like forever as their defense fails to ever improve. The Saints rank last in the NFL in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. They just can't play even at home where they are 0-2.
Alex Smart
49ers vs. Bills
Play: Over 44
San Francisco has been involved in some high scoring road games of late, as is evident by a 10 game visitor run that has seen a combined 50.4 ppg go on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to surprise with an effecient offense via run heavy pattern this season. From a trends viewpoint it must be pointed out that teams that rush for 140 yds or more in a game this season, have failed to eclipse the total just 5 times in 28 game sample size. SF has allowed an average of 146,8 rushing ypg this season and Bufalo has rushed for an avrage of 137.3 ypg. So from at least a trends perspective a higher scoring affair will not look out of the ordinary. Buffalo have also gone over in 8 straight as favs of 7 points or more like they are here today. It must also be noted that the Bills have elipsed the number in 13 of their L/16 vs NFC West opponents. And from a league wide perspective west coast teams like the 49ers playing in a east coast early start have gone over 9 straight times dating back 5 seasons. Everything points to a scenario where the combined output jumps over the number.