Bill Biles
Eagles vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins +3
One thing I have noticed and will continue to take advantage of is home dogs in divisional games. They always seem to win the game. Chargers on Thursday night against the Broncos was the latest example. The Redskins might be without Reed in this one, but i think they rely on Matt Jones and the Play action passing. Jackson also usually plays well vs his former team.
Jack Jones
Indianapolis Colts +3
The Colts have been in every game they have played this season despite mounting injuries on defense. However, that defense is finally starting to get healthy, and they are going to be a dangerous team going forward. In fact, I believe they are the best team in the AFC South division, and they’ll prove that Sunday against the Texans.
Two of the Colts’ three losses came by a combined seven points in which they held a late lead on the Lions in a 35-39 loss, and they had a chance to beat the Jaguars in a 27-30 loss in London. They other was a 14-point loss to Denver, but that was a 6-point game late before an interception returned for a touchdown as the Colts were trying to drive for the game-winning score. And that game was in Denver, and the Colts hung tough for four quarters.
I really like the resiliency the Colts showed last week in a 29-23 home win over the Bears. Their defense held Chicago to field goals and buckled down when they needed to, and Andrew Luck made some huge plays in leading the Colts to 10 unanswered points over the final four minutes to win the game.
Luck remains the real deal and looks completely healthy this season. He has guided to the Colts to an average of 27.4 points per game on the year. He is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,469 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt.
Houston would love to have Luck, because Brock Osweiler simply isn’t getting it done. He is completing just 58 percent of his passes for 1,133 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging only 6.0 yards per attempt. Osweiler has thrown at least one interception in all five games this season.
The Texans rank 31st in scoring offense at 16.4 points per game and 27th in total offense at 310.4 yards per game. I would much rather trust Luck and this Indianapolis offense than Osweiler and Houston’s unit. Especially considering we are getting three points here.
While the Colts are finally starting to get healthy on defense, the Texans are banged up. They are already without JJ Watt, and they have several key players in S Queintin Demps, CB Kareem Jackson and CB Jonathan Joseph all questionable with various injuries. Look for Luck to light up this Texans’ defense.
Houston gave up 31 points to the Vikings last week, and Sam Bradford had a great game for him, completing 22 of 30 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. You can only imagine what Luck is going to be able to do with his high-powered offense this week. Osweiler went 19 of 42 for 184 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the 31-13 loss.
Indianapolis is 23-5 SU in its last 28 meetings with Houston, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings. And keep in mind that Luck didn’t play in either of their meetings last year, and the Texans’ only win came last year in the last seven tries.
The Colts are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in its previous game. The Colts are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC South opponents. Indianapolis is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Eagles -3
I know Philadelphia just lost in a similar spot last week at Detroit as a small road favorite. I just think the key here is to not overreact to one loss. Watching these two teams play, I think it’s clear the Eagles are the better team. Good teams rarely lose consecutive games. Especially when playing an inferior team.
Washington has won 3 straight, but just as easily could have lost all 3 and be sitting at 0-5. The Redskins had numerous breaks go their way late in a 29-27 win against the Giants. They trailed the Browns at home going into the 4th quarter. They likely lose at Baltimore if the Ravens don’t fumble that interception away.
You just can’t keep winning games like they have. Most notably their inability to run the ball offensively and stop the run defensively. Washington ranks 25th in rushing (86.4 ypg) and 30th against the run (130.0 ypg). That’s a pretty clear sign they are constantly getting outplayed in the trenches.
In comparison, the Eagles are 10th in the league in rushing (118.5 ypg) and 3rd at stopping it (73.2 ypg). That tells me Philadelphia is going to dominate the line of scrimmage in this one. Washington does have a strong passing attack, but the Eagles are well equipped to keep them in check. Philly also ranks 6th in the league against the pass (193.5 ypg).
I think the key thing here is that books are hesitant to believe the Eagles are as good as they are. They got lucky with Philadelphia not covering off their bye at Detroit last week. I don’t think they get the same fortune in this one.
Backing all this up is a great system in play favoring the Eagles. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a road loss are 71-32 (69%) ATS over the last 10 seasons in games played after the 1st month of the season.
Teddy Covers
Cowboys vs. Packers
Play: Packers -4
Teddy delivered the goods in NFL action last Sunday with his Big Ticket on the Lions, as well as another 'wire-2-wire' winner with the Titans outright upset in Miami. Teddy has dominated the NFL over the past two seasons: hitting 58% YTD on the heels of last year's epic 65% campaign. Go for the 3-0 Sunday Sweep with Teddy’s Tremendous Trifecta!
Just a few weeks ago, Dallas was a three point underdog at Washington. Now, they’re available at +4 at Lambeau Field against the Packers. My numbers show nearly a touchdown’s worth of difference between the Redskins and Packers. Clearly, the markets are pretty high on Dallas right now.
The Cowboys have certainly exceeded early season expectations with rookie Dak Prescott behind center. Then again, Dallas hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of foes. Their first three wins came against the aforementioned Redskins, the Bears and the 49ers. Then, last week, they were home dogs against the Bengals, but Cinci showed up completely flat, while Dallas brought their ‘A’ game.
So we’re talking about a team that beat two bottom feeders, one mediocre foe and one team that just didn’t show. Now they’re supposed to be able to go to Green Bay and hang for 60 minutes? I’m not buying it!
There’s been some talk in the media this week that the Packers offense isn’t working somehow. The facts don’t bear that out one iota. In their last two games, Green Bay has scored 48 points and Aaron Rodgers has six touchdown passes…all before halftime! Sure, they were sloppy after the break, and didn’t execute perfectly, but this Packers offense still ranks with the NFL’s elite as long as Aaron Rodgers is behind center.
But the key to this wager is the Green Bay defense, ranked #1 in the NFL by a wide margin against the run; allowing a truly stingy 2.0 yards per carry. If Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t have room to run, and Dez Bryant (doubtful) doesn’t suit up, Dak Prescott is in for a long afternoon against Dom Capers confusing zone blitzes. Sure, Dallas is much better this year, but let’s be real --the price is cheap to support the superior home favorite!
Kyle Hunter
Cowboys vs. Packers
Play: Packers -4
The Green Bay Packers aren't the team they once were, but they are still a quality team. I feel like these odds underestimate the Packers and their success at home. Lambeau Field is still one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is still a good quarterback, and he will show that over the course of the season. This is still a quarterback driven league.
This Dallas Cowboys defense has been solid this year, but I think that has more to do with both the success of their ground game as well as the teams they have played against. Green Bay's rushing defense is allowing only 1.99 yards per carry on the year. Can Dak Prescott go win Dallas the game with his arm? He hasn't had to prove it yet. This will be a tough situation for him.
The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 October games.
Bob Harvey
Dodgers -122
The Dodgers look to bounce back from a crushing loss when they take on the Cubs in Chicago in Game 2 of the best-of-seven National League championship series.
After tying the game at three apiece in the top of the 8th the Dodgers saw the Cubs put up a five spot in the bottom of the frame. Miguel Montero belted a pinch-hit grand slam to key the 8-4 comeback victory and help the Cubs improve to 3-0 at home during the playoffs. Chicago finished a major league-best 57-24 at home during the regular season.
LA will once again turn to Clayton Kershaw (13-4, 2.01 ERA who starred in their opening round victory over the Washington Nationals. Kershaw started two games and earned his first major league save in Game 5 while pitching on two day’s rest. He has a 5-3 career record with a 2.14 ERA against the Cubs, but he didn’t face them during the regular season. The Dodgers were an eye-popping 19-4 in Kershaw’s 23 starts this season.
Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.18 ERA) will get the start for the Cubs. He was 7-1 in his last 10 starts during the regular season, had a 1.68 ERA after the All-Star break and was 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA at home this year.
The OVER is 7-2-2 in the Dodgers past 11 road games while the Cubbies are 11-3-1 to the high side in their last 15 home games.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Kershaw’s last eight starts against the Cubs and 12-3 in the past 15 series meetings.
Mike Anthony
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +8.5
In the red zone, Giovani Bernard has been great, in particular with his hands as a receiving back - he can use LBs like clockwork. Bernard understands where the guys are coming from. Cincinnati, although having problems, has actually had great work from their defense at times to snuff out drives - and it will cause enough problems for the Pats. They will be ready to bounce back on the road. The Pats will have some issues when Cincinnati decides to blitz. Brady has been as excellent, as expected - but Carlos Dunlap of Cincinnati can cause enough havoc from the DE spot to create some forced quick decisions under pressure. Brandon LaFell is a tough cover and will want some payback vs the DBs of New England. They will have their hands full with AJ Green - leaving more space for LaFell. Bengals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss Cincinnati covers this one +8.5.
Ross Benjamin
Falcons @ Seahawks
Play: Seahawks -6.5
Atlanta is coming off an impressive run of winning 3 games in a row, and did so as an underdog on each occasion. As a result, they’re off to a terrific 4-1 (.800) start to the season. Since 1980, there’s been just 12 teams which have accomplished that identical feat while possessing a better than win percentage of better than .588, and in their following games they proceeded to go a dismal 1-11 SU&ATS.
Since 2012, Seattle is 33-5 at home, and that includes an extremely profitable 25-13 ATS (65.7%). Furthermore, during that exact time period, the Seahawks are 9-0 SU&ATS as at home when +6.0 to -6.0, and when facing a non-division opponent. Seattle had the luxury of a bye last week.
Since 1980, any home favorite of 4.5 or more, playing an opponent coming off 2 consecutive straight up underdog wins, resulted in those home favorites going 6-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin was a massive 22.2 points per game.
Dr Bob
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
The Jags pass Defense has been formidable this year, giving up only 5.5 NYPP, ranking 11th in the league. Blake Bortles has unfortunately struggled all year, with peripherals of 42.2% success rate and a 5.7 NYPP. Look for Brian Hoyer to regress from his career high 7.6 NYPP and come closer to the 6.2 NYPP he has averaged the other 7 years he has been in the league. The advanced stats model sees value on the Under, so we lean to the UNDER (46). No opinion on the side.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
The Browns and Titans are 2nd and 6th from an adjusted YPR standpoint, both averaging 4.8 YPR. Offensively, the Titans have failed to show explosiveness, gaining only 6.1 NYPP, which is also the same as the Brownies. However, the Titans should find an easier time against a Browns D giving up 7.3 NYPP. While Titans are susceptible to the big plays on defense, giving up 48% of their yardage into long runs and passes. Look for the visiting Browns to keep it close in a game of lower-tier defensive units.The advanced stats model sees value on the road dawg and Over so both the Browns (+7) and the OVER (43.5) are Strong Opinions.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
The Eagles defense has been phenomenal this year, and while they are not going to continue to hold teams to 12.8 points per game. They are the 3rd best defense on an adjusted defensive success rate allowed. The Washington offense has been just as formidable ranking 3rd in offensive success rate. Where Washington again struggles is on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 5.2 YPR and should actually be giving up more than the 24.4 points allowed this season, if not for the positive fumble differential. The advanced stats model sees the Eagles flying this week, as Eagles (-2.5) is a Strong Opinion and a lean to the OVER (44.5).
Brandon Lee
Cubs +120
Chicago is showing great value here as a home dog against the Dodgers. The Cubs won in dramatic fashion last night with a 5-run 8th inning after the Dodgers tied the game in the top of the inning. LA is going to send out their ace Clayton Kershaw, but chances are he's not going to at his best. This will be Kershaw's 4th appearance in the Dodgers 7-games so far this postseason. He pitched on short rest in his second start of the NLDS against the Nationals and gave up 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings. I'll take my chances the Cubs offense will get to him in this one. At the same time, I look for a dominant outing here from Kyle Hendricks, who has been nothing short of sensational at home this season, going 9-2 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 15 home starts.
Tony George
Bills -7.5
Collin Kaepernick gets the start and hopefully provides some sort of spark for the stumbling 49ers this weekend, despite all the "Taking a Knee" spotlight, he should be a better option than Gabbert at QB in Chip Kelly's system. I have no doubt his reception will be chilly by the locals, and this is a West Coast team who will be playing at 10 am their time with the time change, and that is a big disadvantage.
Buffalo has turned it around gents, and Rex Ryan, despite his limited talents as a head coach in my opinion, has outcoached 3 very good head coaches in the last 3 weeks to my surprise, including a shutout of the Pats on their home turf which never happens. The new OC since being installed at Buffalo is 3-0 SU and ATS since the change. They have outscored their last 3 opponents 79-37, and played some good defense along the way. The Bills fans will pack this one with the usual vigorous support and the Bills are 4-1 ATS their last 5 as home favs, while the long traveling NIners are just 2-10 ATS their last 12 road games, being outscored by a whopping 17 ppg in those 12 games.
Breaking in a new QB (or a shelved on in this case) and getting chemistry started on the offensive side of the ball will take time, even with added time to prepare after a Thursday night loss last week. A tough duty to be effective with that scenario against this defense on the road, with a massive time change, and the Niners best 2 defensive players out or gone for the season, and defending against an dual threat QB Tyrod Taylor and a team that is rolling is a tall chore for the talent challenged Niners on offense to keep up with on the scoreboard.
Rare I will lay the big wood, anything over a TD with Rex Ryan calling the shots, but on paper this is a total mis-match and I think with this travel schedule, Buffalo has a 4 point home field advantage here and clearly are the better team. The line has been all over the place all week, and my sources in Vegas tell me despite the line rise to as high as 8.5 in some shops, their is no sharp action buyback on the number which is a tell tale sign even wiseguys want nothing to do with the Niners today. Stranger things have happened but I feel Buffalo in the last 3 games have made huge strides and this is a very winnable home game for them.
Dennis Macklin
Steelers vs. Dolphins
Play: Steelers -7
Regardless of the circumstances or mismatch, rarely like to take a road favorite of more than a touchdown or more on any type of a regular basis. That said, the Steeler offense is on a roll with 10 touchdowns from their L21 drives. Not much good to say about Miami who has been outyarded the last two games 761-422, the fish running just 84 plays to their opponents 139. In the end, these are professionals and the Steelers probably aren't as good as they've played the last two weeks and are battling injuries. By the same token, the Dolphins are probably not as bad as they've shown the last month and are at home. Final verdict is to proceed with caution but can find very few reasons not use Pittsburgh in teasers and moneyline parlays.
Scott Rickenbach
Rams vs. Lions
Play: Rams +3
The Lions are in a tough spot here after knocking off the previously unbeaten Eagles last week. That can definitely leave a team flat the following week and Detroit was fortunate to win that game as they were outgained by over 100 yards by Philadelphia. The Rams are at the other end of the spectrum right now and that means they are plenty hungry for this game. Los Angeles lost at home against Buffalo last week despite 23 to 15 edge in first downs. LA was done in by turnovers and they will look to make amends this week as they had previously won three straight games. Keep in mind the Lions had previously lost three straight games. The Rams are on a 7-3 ATS run their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Lions are on a 2-7 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9 even after last week's win and cover over the the Eagles. Detroit wanted that game badly over Philly last week as, in addition to knocking off one of the few unbeatens left in the league, the Lions were also able to knock off a former head coach as Philadelphia's defensive coordinator is Jim Schwartz. That was an emotional win for Detroit and I look for the Lions to come out flat this week.
Ari Atari
Browns vs. Titans
Play: Titans -7
The Tennessee/Cleveland game sees two weaker teams square up with the Titans being favored by a healthy seven points. It seems high at first, but digging into the stats, it seems it should be even higher. Cleveland will have difficulty scoring points as well as establishing the passing game given the Titans effective pass rushing and uncertainty at QB for the Browns. The Titans have an average offense with an above-average defense which is a lot more than can be said for the Browns.
Bob Balfe
Bengals +7.5
Cincinnati does not have the multiple receivers like the past and they do miss Tyler Eifert, but this Patriots team is a bit overvalued considering their injuries on both sides of the ball. This running game has a lot of banged up players and even the key receivers all are nursing injury. This Patriots Offensive Line is already dealing with injury problems and there is no doubt the Bengals are the healthier team. All three starting Patriots linebackers were limited this week at practice and I believe this game is going to be a lot tighter than most think. Last week was not a good measuring stick on where Brady is because they played the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati can actually get pressure on the QB and with Burfict back this defense has an identity.
Jaguars +2
I don’t even know where to begin with how injured this Bears team is on the defensive side. Last week Hoyer did a great job at moving the ball against the Colts, but this team still lost the football game. Jacksonville obviously is not an elite team, but they have a lot of young talent and most important are one of the healthiest teams in the league this year. Chicago just does not have the bodies on defense to put any pressure on Blake Bortles. This is not a league in which you can plug guys in and hope for winning results. Jacksonville is one win away from getting back on track in that weak division they play in. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 13 home games so this is not a building that has any home field advantage right now.
Titans -7
Why do all the Cleveland QB’s keep getting hurt? The answer would be because this offensive line can’t protect the guys throwing the football. I do like the grit Cleveland has shown considering how banged up they have been, but now today are facing a Titans team that is on their way to getting to be a household name in the NFL. This Titans team has great players on defense and once they put it together could be the cream of the crop in their division this year. This team has a lot of skill on offense and I don’t see this banged up Browns Defense being able to keep pace today. Will Cody Kessler finish this game because if he can’t the Browns have no other options at QB. This is a team that just doesn’t have the talent in the passing game to mount any comebacks.
Dodgers -130
I can’t over think this one. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in the game and at this price we have to go with him. The Dodgers need to win his starts or they don’t have a shot in this series. The Cubs have looked decent, but not flawless as it has taken some magic to win some of the games they just won. Kershaw won’t let that happen.