CAL SPORTS
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Play: Kansas City Chiefs Pk
While Oakland fans always dress like it’s Halloween the Raiders are playing like that doing it with smoke and mirrors. Despite being 4-1 they have only outscored their opponents collectively 142-137 while getting outgained in ALL FIVE games this season. Oakland is already 0-2 ATS at home this year and the visitor in Raiders games is 5-0 ATS this season and has covered 11 straight. The Chiefs meanwhile come in off a bye which is a role that their HC Andy Reid is 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS and they also come off an embarrassing 43-14 loss to the Steelers which is another profitable KC angle as they have covered 9 of their last 10 off a defeat. Lastly, the extra week of rest insures that Jamaal Charles will be fully integrated into the offense after getting injured in game #5 LY and finally returning to the line-up versus Pittsburgh were he got his feet wet with only 2 carries.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -1
This game provides another excellent example of recency bias by the betting public. Oakland is off to an impressive 4-1 start after reeling off three consecutive wins (2-1 ATS over that span), including last week's thrilling 34-31 win over the Chargers. In contrast, the Chiefs were thoroughly embarrassed two weeks ago in Pittsburgh where they suffered a humbling 43-14 defeat before a national viewing audience.
Based on those disparate results, Kansas City was actually getting points in this game as of Thursday afternoon before the betting market adjusted the line by 1-2 points in favor of the Chiefs (i.e. money came in on KC as an underdog; now KC is a small road favorite). Oakland checks a lot of boxes that appeal to amateur bettors: (1) potent offense; (2) winning record; and (3) won last time out.
Following a much-needed bye, Kansas City arrives in Oakland with boasting an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record in this series when coming off a loss. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has done well historically following a bye week. Indeed, his teams are 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS following a bye, including 9-1 SU and ATS when his squad owns a .500 or worse record.
The Raiders are a money-burning 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in home division games following a division affair, including 1-6 ATS as favorites (keep an eye on the point spread). Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS versus the Raiders, whereas Oakland quarterback Derek Carr is 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS at home and 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS as a favorite.
The bigger concern for Oakland is its porous defense that is allowing 27.4 points per game and 453 total yards at 7.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit. The Raiders are 0.7 yards per rush attempt, 1.4 yards per pass attempt and 1.2 yards per play worse than average on the defensive side of the ball in 2016.
With Kansas City standing at 26-12 ATS on the road following a double-digit loss and 10-2 ATS on the road off a road loss by 14 or more points, take the Chiefs and invest with confidence.
THE PREZ
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -7
The Cleveland Browns have not won a road contest in over a year and are riding a seven game losing streak that dates back to last year. The team has used five different quarterbacks in their first five games of the 2016 season and embraces former Baylor Bears head coach Art Briles to assist them in steadying the position. Cleveland travels to Nashville with an 0-5 mark on the season to square off against the Tennessee Titans (2-3) at Nissan Stadium.
Browns
Briles has been hired by the Cleveland front office to serve as an offensive adviser for the Browns. Briles, considered an offensive guru was fired by Baylor after the program was connected to a large number of sexual assault cases involving several members of the school's football team. Briles will have the job of coaching up the Browns quarterbacks including this Sunday's starter rookie Cody Kessler. The Browns Kessler was knocked out of last weekend’s loss to the Patriots with chest and rib injuries but is slated to make his fourth career start on Sunday against the Titans.
Kessler, who has been hurried and sacked more times than any starting quarterback in the league this season, will face a Titans defense that registered six sacks in last weekend’s victory against the Dolphins
The reports out of Cleveland are that veteran quarterback Josh McCown is in line to be active and back up Kessler. McCown has missed the last three games with a broken collarbone. The Browns also promoted quarterback Kevin Hogan from the practice squad this week and the team will have at their disposal wide receiver Terrelle Pryor if needed to take snaps at quarterback in the team’s wildcat formation.
Injuries at quarterback have been just one of the Cleveland offensive issues this season. The team will be without starting left guard Joel Bitonio, who will miss the game with a foot sprain. Center Cameron Erving will start for the first time since suffering a bruised lung Sept. 18. Then there is left tackle Joe Thomas who is nursing a knee injury who will be asked to play despite missing the last three practice sessions. The offensive line could also be without top blocking tight end Gary Barnidge (ankle).
Titans
Tennessee ended a two-game skid by winning at Miami 30-17 last week. Quarterback Marcus Mariota had arguably his best performance as a professional. The former Oregon Duck threw for three touchdowns and ran for another score. Veteran running back DeMarco Murray has assisted quarterback Mariota into being more efficient offensively. Murray is a ground and pound threat that cannot be ignored by opposing defenses. The former rushing champion has turned the Titans into a much more balanced attack and in turn more difficult to defend. Murray has totaled 461 yards on the ground for the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense.
The Browns are a M*A*S*H unit that can’t field an experienced quarterback or offensive line. The Cleveland defense is on the field far too much week in and week out. And while the Titans have not shown any consistency offensively, ranking 24th in the NFL averaging less than 19 points per game, they have shown significant progress since Week #1 and square off against a Cleveland stop-unit that can’t do enough to keep opposing offenses out of the endzone.
The Titans’ defense continues to grow under the tutelage of Dick LeBeau and the Browns have surrendered 13 touchdown passes on the season and allowed at least 25 points in every game ranking among the bottom-five in points and yards allowed.
Micah Roberts
Indianapolis at Houston
Play: Houston -3
My ratings have the Texans -3.5 in this game so I'm already justified by laying -3 with the Texans. While everyone is down on Brock Osweiler, let's also be reminded that his two worst performance and the Texans only two losses were at Minnesota and at New England, two of the best defenses in the league...on the road. I'm not holding that against him. I think he'll be fine at home where Houston has gone 3-0 and covered all three. Houston has also gone 6-0 ATS in their last six against AFC South teams. The Colts just struggle too much and Andrew Luck has been sacked a league high 20 times. They could easily be 0-5. They've covered just once in their last five road games. Look for Osweiler to shine and win support back from the Houston fans.
ANY 2000 DIAMOND PICKS TODAY
Harry Bondi
Ravens / Giants Under 44.5
This is game that matches two teams that are trending as dead-nuts “under” teams this season, so we’ll jump in before the oddsmaker makes his full adjustment. The Giants offense is so one-dimensional right now it has become very easy to shutdown. The team has been held to less than 100 yards rushing in three out of five games this season and has yet to top 120 yards on the ground in a single game, and that’s a bad match-up against a Baltimore defense that has limited four out of five opponents to 65 yards rushing or less. The Ravens offense, meanwhile, is also a mess. They fired their offensive coordinator last week after being held to 19 points or less in three of their five games this season and we’ll follow a trend that has seen Baltimore go under in 14 of their last 19 games when listed as the underdog.
David Banks
Colts @ Texans
Pick: Over 48
In the offseason, the Houston Texans went out and spent a ton of money on what they thought was one of the best up and coming quarterbacks in the league. Brock Osweiler had proved himself capable while filling in for Peyton Manning in Denver. His production with the Broncos led to a nice contract with the Texans. The problem for Houston is that Osweiler has yet to live up to his billing.
The Texans, 3-2 and in first place in the AFC South, are tied for 31st in scoring (16.4 points per game) in the NFL and their offensive woes are directly related to their quarterback’s lack of production. Osweiler ranks at or near the bottom in most every major statistical category related to quarterbacks. His QB rating (50.1) is 25th and he is tied for 27th with seven interceptions through five games.
Still, Houston has won the games it should have: Chicago, Kansas City, and Tennessee. They have been clearly outplayed in their two losses, a 27-0 shutout loss to the Tom Brady-less Patriots and a 31-13 setback against the NFL’s best defense in Minnesota.
Indianapolis is 2-3 and at a crossroads. The offensive line is not very good and quarterback Andrew Luck is on pace to be sacked 60 times this season. WR Donte Moncrief has been hurt and Phillip Dorsey has stepped into the No.2 receiver role. The problem is that Dorsey hasn’t really produced (he has just 11 receptions). T.Y. Hilton is a star with 35 catches, 507 yards, and three touchdowns. The Colts offense can score – they are averaging 27.4 points per game (7th in NFL) – but they need to figure out how to keep teams out of their end zone. The Colts give up almost 30 points a game.
King Creole
49ers / Bills Over 44
We're gunning for yet another OVER winner and that means a lot of points in this 'West to East' non-conference matchup. Normally, one doesn't think OVER the TOTAL when it comes to the Buffalo Bills or San Francisco 49ers. But we've got the OU ammo to back it up. It starts with the extra rest for the visiting 49ers, off a Thursday game vs the Cardinals.
NFL teams off a THURSDAY home game that went OVER the Total (49ERS) have gone 36-8 O/U since 2009. That includes an impressive 20-2 O/U for ROAD teams when the OU line is > 43 points.
That last game for the Niners had a final score of 33 to 21 (OVER hit by Double Digits)... 6-0 O/U since 2008: All GAME SEVEN or less road underdogs of a SU division HOME loss that also went 'Over the Total' (49ERS).
For the host Bills, it looks like HC Rex Ryan is off the hot seat... thanks to 3 straight wins (including two as a DOG)... 6-0 O/U since 2002: All NFL home favs of 3 > pts off a SU road FAV win... and back-to-back DOG wins in their last three gms (BUF).
This is one of those West TIME ZONE teams playing on the road against a East TIME ZONE opponent in an early Sunday kickoff... 9-0 O/U last 5 years: Any EAST DIVISION favorite of > 1 pt off a SUATS road win (BUF) vs any WEST DIVISION opponent (SF) when the OU line is in the range of 39 to 51 points.
In these 'West to East' Sunday early games, we note that SAN FRANCISCO has gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U L5Y as road dogs of > 3 points. Meanwhile, the Bills have been a great OVER team in this situation. BUFFALO has gone 19-5 O/U as a host in these 'West to East' games since 1986... including 9-1 O/U when favored by > 4 points.
We're fully aware that San Francisco HOME games have been strong UNDER plays in the last year and a half. But they went 6-2 O/U AWAY last year (49.4 ppg), and are already 2-0 O/U away THIS season (64.0 ppg). The clincher is the 'RUSHING SUCCESS' blurb mentioned on page three. This game has the best shot at an OVER result in that 20-5-2 O/U rushing situation that's already cashed BIG this season...
Brad Wilton
The Sabres better be prepared to score some goals tonight, as the Oilers have shown early on that this season may not be a winning season, but they are sure going to be exciting to watch.
With a pair of games in the books, the Oilers have scored a dozen goals! They have also allowed 7 goals to be scored against them for a pair of Overs in as many games.
Buffalo is minus Jack Eichel and Evander Kane, but they should get Kyle Okposo back for his first game of the season.
The Sabres only netted one on Montreal earlier this week, but they did give up 4. Buffalo is 3-0-1 Over the total in their last 4 Sunday contests, while the Oilers have topped the total now in their last 4 dating back to last season.
The lamp to get lit more than a few times tonight.
Sabres-Oilers Over the total.
3* BUFFALO-EDMONTON OVER
Brad Wilton
If the Bengals didn't show up at Dallas last week with extra prep time, why should we expect them to show up at New England today?
Cincy trailed 21-0 at halftime in the Big D and 28-0 in the fourth quarter before making the final score of 28-14 a little more respectable.
The Bengals can't stop the run this year; Zeke Elliott ran for 134 yards for Dallas last weekend.
The Bengals can't protect Andy Dalton this year; the Cowboys sacked him four more times last Sunday.
The Patriots got Tom Brady back last week at Cleveland and he didn't skip a beat by completing 28-of-40 passes for 406 yards and 3 TDs. Now he makes his home debut and at this price it's worth the investment.
The Bengals needed a miracle to beat the Jets on the road in their opener. They lost by 8 in the rain and mud at Pittsburgh. They lost by 12 at home to Denver. They got drilled by 14 at Dallas. They can certainly lose by 10 in Foxborough today.
3* NEW ENGLAND
Chris Jordan
My free play for Sunday is on the Jacksonville Jaguars, plus the points on the road in Chicago, against the lowly Bears. I don't think the Bears are much of anything, and I've got much more respect for the Jags.
Yes, these are both last-place teams, and yes the Bears are talking up a big game heading into this one - that they're playing much better than their record indicates - but I think they're going nowhere as long as Brian Hoyer is the starting quarterback. That's not to say I think Chicago needs Jay Cutler back - that would be worse for this team.
The Bears produced 522 yards on offense last week - their highest total since 1989 - but it meant nothing, as they sputtered in the red zone with just one touchdown in three tries.
Let's face it, Chicago (1-4) has been hit hard by injuries and been nothing more than a team with inconsistent play. It sits in last place in the NFC North after losing at Indianapolis a week ago, and now another AFC South team is going to take a shot.
The Jaguars (1-3) arrive in a town buzzing more for the Cubs, and Jacksonville had last week off after beating Indianapolis in London. And this is a team that still has a chance to climb in the AFC South if it can pick up a rare road win.
The Jaguars are only a half-game behind Tennessee and Indianapolis and 1-1/2 games back of first-place Houston. And with the Texans and Colts meeting later tonight in Sunday night's TV game, I have to believe there is motivation to pick up the win and know the Jags will be counting on gaining ground this week.
And make note, the Jaguars have the seventh-best defense in the league right now, with a stellar pass defense that also ranks seventh. Jacksonville will make things difficult for the Bears in this one, and should win it outright.
Take the road pup.
5* JAGUARS
Brett Atkins
This one reeks of "slam dunk", as the Niners are now desperate enough to allow Colin Kaepernick to start. To me, Kaepernick is not ready physically for the demands of the full four quarters!
San Francisco has now lost their last 4 both straight up and against the spread, and are playing in the dreaded "west to east 1pm eastern time" contest. The 49ers are 0-2 this year as the road dog, and just 2-8 overall since last season as the road dog.
Not only will their body clocks be off, but they are catching the Bills playing some solid football with 3 wins and 3 covers in a row!
Buffalo has covered 8 of their last 11 at home, and with Lesean McCoy busting free for 150 yards on the ground last week, I would think its a strong bet that he will be extra-motivated for this one against his former Eagles coach Chip Kelly who sent him packing from Philadelphia.
All signs today say Bills blowout!
5* BUFFALO
Bob Valentino
My free pick for Sunday in the NFL is on the Los Angeles Rams, taking the points in Motown, against the Detroit Lions.
And the one culprit I think who will have a big game for the Rams, the one guy who has yet to put together a breakthrough performance this season, is Todd Gurley, last year's top offensive rookie in the NFL.
In 2015, the power back had at least 128 yards rushing in four of his first five games. In 2016, he is averaging a mere 2.7 yards per carry and has run for no more than 85 yards in any of his first five games.
The Rams are averaging an NFL-low 284.2 yards a game on offense, too.
So why take this team on the road, against a Lions team that can probably run circles around the Rams? Because sometimes it takes another offense to push a staggering one into action. And that's what I think we're going to see here.
The Rams are sluggish, but they're also finding ways to win. And if there is one game they're going to want to find a way to win in, it's this one. After playing in Detroit, the Rams will fly to London, where they will play the Giants on Oct. 23.
And I think you have to appreciate what the Rams have done since March, in relocating from St. Louis, bouncing around to a few cities to train during the offseason, and playing three of its first five regular season games on the road - at San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Glendale, Ariz.
They lost at home to Buffalo last week, but some may say the Bills are for real after they shutout the Patriots in New England a couple of weeks back.
The Lions are 2-3 with a sketchy defense that has allowed an average of 25 points per contest. Detroit is also playing with a dinged up backfield, and could struggle to balance out the offense.
I'm taking my chances with the Rams in this one.
1* LOS ANGELES
Eric Schroeder
My free NFL play for Sunday is the Tennessee Titans, laying points to the lowly Cleveland Browns. I don't have much to say about this game, and won't, other than I think the Browns have serious issues and are the worst team on the planet.
They are the joke franchise in professional sports.
So even though Tennessee comes into this one with just a 2-3 mark, I know against the 0-5 Browns the Titans will look much more like the Minnesota Vikings do these days.
According to The Associated Press, the Browns rank dead last in the league overall. Their offense is 20th, their defense is 29th and though they've haven't been 0-6 since losing their first seven as an expansion team in 1999, I'm starting to believe they could be winless this year.
Cleveland has started three quarterbacks in five games, while it has played five quarterbacks already. The Browns will be playing their fourth road game of the season, and they're a team that has been plagued by the injury bug this season.
Tennessee's DeMarco Murray is going to have a field day in this game, as he ranks second in the league 461 yards rushing and 633 yards from scrimmage. He also leads the NFL with 33 first downs. He's averaging 5.03 yards per carry in October during his career, so he is going to be my FANTASY SUGGESTION and biggest reason the Titans roll.
1* TENNESSEE
SPORTS WAGERS
Anaheim +112 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
Things are a bit out of whack in the early going thus far, as 26 of 31 favorites have won with many of them undeserving. Such was the case when the Ducks went into Dallas on opening night and outshot the Stars, 35-20 and out-chanced them 21-9 but lost 4-2. The Ducks are now 0-2 after playing in Pittsburgh last night and losing 3-2. However, the Ducks are creating plenty of opportunities. They have 71 shots on net in two games. Things are going to slow down for them here after playing in Pittsburgh and Dallas, two of the league’s quickest teams. The Ducks have every advantage here from defense to forwards to goaltending, to size to talent and they’re hungry for a win.
Meanwhile, the Islanders are 0-2 after losses to the Rangers and Caps. The Islanders have only managed 28 and 22 shots on net respectively in two games and one of those occurred against the defenseless Rangers. The Islanders will open up their second season now at the Barclay’s Center, a place that couldn’t sell out in the playoffs and that has the atmosphere of a morgue. The players hate playing there. The Islanders also lost Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielson and Matt Martin in the off-season, three key players on the ice and in the locker room that they did not replace. Two teams desperate for a win will face-off here but only one of these teams is truly elite. Furthermore, the Islanders Jaroslav Halak was shaky in his debut with a .895 save percentage. While John Gibson was not better in his debut, Gibson is legit and will bounce back while Halak is past his prime and getting worse.