SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. CHARGERS -2 over Philadelphia
The Chargers reputation for finding ways to lose is reaching new heights. No matter what publication you read or what NFL pregame or post-game shows you watch, all you hear regarding the Chargers is that they have made a habit out of losing close games. Losing is contagious and now with an 0-3 record, L.A.’s stock is very low. That’s our cue to step in.
Philadelphia could take a massive breather here after playing intense games against Washington, Kansas City and the Giants last week. Furthermore, though he has many good traits – arm strength, mental processing, toughness, escape skills – second-year quarterback Carson Wentz is still developing as a passer. Too-hot passes and sailed throws can result from his elbow-centric inverted delivery that’s akin to that of a MLB pitcher. High throws and fumbles have slowed Wentz and could allow L.A.’s defense to collect turnovers after failing to get one in both home games to date. If all things even out over time, the Bolts are in line to win some turnover battles and this looks like the perfect set-up for that.
Once again, we’re not going to get into the X’s and O’s when breaking down a game. It means jack. We are situational or value players or a combination of both and in that regard, it’s time to buy up some Chargers’ stock. This is not an 0-3 team. This is a talented squad that is on a three-year run of poor fortune. There are 29 other GM’s in the NFL that would love to have Philip Rivers on their squad. The Chargers have played Denver, Miami and K.C., with two of those teams being legit contenders and the Chargers did not look out of place in either. L.A.’s stunt game is making strides and fellow ends Joey Bosa and Chris McCain can be very disruptive as well. Had the Chargers defeated K.C. or come in 2-1, we may have laid off em here but this is a very good 0-3 team that catches the Eagles at the right time. The Eagles are coming off three straight nail biters and now have to make a trip to another time zone before hosting the Cardinals next week. The planets align right for a Bolts' victory and we're all over it.
SEATTLE -13 over Indianapolis
Without Andrew Luck, the Colts were supposed to be the laughing stock of the NFL but instead, they nearly beat the Cardinals two weeks ago and indeed beat Cleveland last week while scoring 31 points in the process. The Colts have covered two weeks in a row but more importantly, if you bet against them, you ripped up your tickets in back to back weeks. Furthermore, two big dogs last week (Houston and Cincinnati) covered easily and nearly won outright while the rest of the underdog’s slayed the board. That has the market fearful of spotting big points again, especially with Seattle, a team that barely beat the 49ers while scoring 12 points and scoring just nine points in Week 1 against Green Bay. Now one has to lay 13 points with a team that has scored under that in two of their three games? Get in the mind of the market and you’ll stay ahead of the curve. In this case, on a Sunday night bailout game, the points look appetizing but we couldn’t disagree more. The Colts are a dumpster fire with the worst roster in football. What this market has forgotten is their 46-9 loss on the road against the Rams in Week 1, which also happened to be on the West Coast. They’ll now travel again to play a steamed up Seattle squad.
The conventional wisdom is that the Seattle Seahawks are the prohibitive favorites to win the NFC West but few are looking at them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders that can string together three wins in the postseason, largely due to a dismal offensive line. But, on a day when Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns, its defense got taken downtown in Nashville. In eight drives from the start of the second quarter to the start of the fourth quarter, Tennessee scored seven times – four field goals and three touchdowns. The Seattle Seahawks are now 1-2 this season with its only win being a 12-point victory over the 49ers. The Seahawks don’t have the swagger we’ve been used to seeing in the Great Northwest. If you’ve watched Seattle in any of its three games this year, spotting nearly two converted TD’s with them is unappealing at best. Lost in it all of that is Seattle did enough offensively to win beat Tennessee by scoring 27 points on the road. Lost in all of that is Seattle held Green Bay to 17 points at Lambeau and also held the 49ers to nine points. Additionally, Pete Carroll never shows mercy against anyone and enjoys running up the score more than any coach we’ve ever seen. Up 41-3 late in the fourth quarter, Carroll will kick a FG with 30 seconds remaining.Indianapolis is everything it appeared to be in a disastrous opener. The Colts are the weakest team in the NFL and will never see the postseason under the current staff. It's hard to imagine how an offense this void of talent is going to generate points this week against a Seahawks defensive front that should dominate the line of scrimmage. We'll say Seahawks triggerman Russell Wilson has a big day and the Seattle defense outscores the Indy offense. Colts once again get exposed in a big way so be very confident in spotting the points. We are.
N.Y. JETS +150 over Jacksonville
If you listen to any of our podcasts, we keep preaching and insisting that nobody can predict the outcome of games. Our mantra is to play value and react to what the market is overreacting to. All of that comes into play here, as the Jaguars have two blowout wins with last week’s 44-7 victory over Baltimore resonating the loudest. That 9:30 AM EST start last week assures us that the market was watching. Anyone that bet Baltimore had to feel disgusted 10 minutes in. We warned you about betting games that take place overseas and also pointed out that it was Jacksonville’s fourth year in a row traveling to London while it was Baltimore’s first time ever. We are not putting any weight in Jacksonville catching the Ravens flat or any weight in Jacksonville defeating Tom Savage. When Jacksonville hosted Tennessee in Week 2, the Jags were buried by 21 points and now they’re favored on the road because the market has responded to their two loud victories. Don’t follow suit. The Jags still have an error prone, unreliable QB that never wins a game he’s expected to. Before last week, Bortles had thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions. Seriously, the last time Jacksonville was favored on the road was back in 2011.
Miami was expected to be the next team to cut a notch in their holster as the latest team to slap the Jets around. In their first two games, New York had been outscored 66-32 and had the look of a team capable of going 0-16 until the Dolphins came to MetLife Stadium. Of their 11 drives prior to a garbage-time touchdown that prevented a shutout as time expired, the first seven ended in punts and the last four featured two interceptions and two turnovers on downs. Of their eight drives prior to the fourth quarter, none of them lasted more than six plays and four of them were three-and-outs. In eight drives, Jay Cutler managed three first downs. Miami was flat after a big win against the Bolts the week prior and after being displaced because of Hurricane Irma. Jacksonville could easily suffer a similar fate.
You see, Jacksonville is coming back from a trip overseas so they, too, were somewhat displaced. Last year after returning from a game overseas, the Jags had a bye week. In fact, they have played overseas four years in a row and had a bye week afterwards every time except this year. We tried to find an example of a team or two coming back from England and playing the following week but were unable to. We may have missed it but from our research, we were not able to find one team that did not have a bye the week after playing overseas. This now becomes unchartered territory for an already overvalued Jacksonville squad.
The Jets could also be better than advertised. They are 0-2 on the road with losses to Buffalo and Oakland but they’re 1-0 at home with that aforementioned dominating win over the Fish. By the way, Denver also lost in Buffalo. Perhaps the Jags come in here and win again but the more likely scenario is that they suffer an overseas hangover and are just as flat as Miami was last week. Even if the Jags aren’t flat (very unlikely), they do not warrant being road chalk. If you bet on Jacksonville here, you are playing into all the things we urge you not to play into (overreactions, market perceptions, etc). It’s a bad bet that likely won’t turn out well. Jets outright.
HOUSTON +121 over Tennessee
The Titans come in 2-1 after defeating the Jags in Week 2 and the Seahawks last week. Tennessee’s 37-16 win over Jacksonville suddenly looks a whole lot better after the Jags torched the Ravens overseas. The Titans are now starting to get some press. All of a sudden, the media has started touting the Titans as a legit threat to make a deep playoff run because they have opened some eyes by lighting up the scoreboard with 70 points between wins over the Jaguars and Seahawks. We gave you the Titans two weeks ago over Jacksonville and also gave you them last week as a Survivor pick to beat Seattle. Now that the market is jumping in on the Titans two weeks too late, we’re jumping off.
Let’s not forget that Tennessee lost to Oakland at home in Week 1, 27-17. Lost in Tennessee’s victory over Seattle last week is that the Seahawks, a team that couldn’t move five yards previously, racked up massive yardage. Russell Wilson threw for a career-best 373 yards and four scores against the Titans but all this market sees is a victory over one of the NFL’s best teams over the past decade. Yes indeed, at home, Tennessee’s defense had trouble with a QB (R. Wilson) that can move his feet. They’ll get the same thing here.
Houston lost to New England but they dominated that game in Foxboro. Had it not been for New England once again getting every bounce into its laps, Houston may have won that game by three TD’s. The previous week, Houston played on a Thursday night in Cincinnati and beat the Bengals 13-9. The Texans are now 1-2 and are without anything impressive. They were torched by the Jags in Week 1 (29-7), they beat Cinci and then lost to New England. However, Tom Savage started against Jacksonville and there were other factors that contributing to the Texans being flat in their opener. What we see is a team with new found hope because of Deshaun Watson. Watson led the Texans to victory over Cincinnati. He threw for over 300 yards last week in New England and will now start his third game of the season here and first at home (he played in Houston’s home opener against Jax but he came in late in relief of Savage). Houston’s new stadium will be rocking big time.
Last season, the Titans were favored on the road twice and went 0-2 against the number, losing 38-17 in Jacksonville and barely getting by the Bears in Chicago. As the chalk in their season opener, they failed to cover that one too. While we’re on board with Tennessee, we’re not ready to bite on them just yet as road chalk because they have not proven to be profitable in that role. We’re still in the buy-low/sell-high business and Tennessee putting up 70 points the last two weeks combined means if you get behind them this week, you would be buying high. The timing to get behind Tennessee here is way off. Its ship sailed two weeks ago while Houston’s stock is still low and in this business, timing is everything. Houston outright is the call.
Week 4 Preview:
In this weekly space, we'll cover every NFL game that we're not wagering on. Remember, these are not official plays and if we do decide to make any of these official plays, we'll move them into that category. Please note that the BEST LINES available are also listed,
The Rest of the Games
MIAMI +127 over New Orleans SportsInteraction
The NFL returns to London for the second week in a row. At 1-2 the Saints appear to be back on track after a 34-14 win on the road in Carolina. Heading into Week 4, we've heard all about how difficult the Saints early season schedule has been with three of their first four games on the road including this trip to jolly old England. Losses to both Minnesota and New England might be excusable to the talking heads but we are not nearly as bullish on Drew Brees and company after just one good game. The Saints defense is still giving up 437.7 yards per game, second worst only behind the Patriots and even though they picked off Cam Newton three times on Sunday, turnovers are a luck based statistic that cannot be counted on from game to game.
After losing 20-6 to the Jets on Sunday, we don't blame the Dolphins for being eager to skip the continent. The case for Miami through two games is a difficult one to make but we are in the business of buying low. Many consider the Jets to be the worst team in the NFL and the Dolphins were embarrassed by a team that is supposedly tanking it. Backing a team coming off a brutal loss is a situational play we often look out for, as those teams are usually being offered at a discount their next time out. It's really hard to back the Fish this week after losing to the Jets, especially if you picked Miami in your survivor pool or anywhere else for that matter. Even head coach Adam Gase was disgusted in his team's offensive effort saying “I’m tired of watching for two years this garbage...We’ll make the proper adjustments, probably make some changes.” Defensively the Dolphins have been great against the run by holding opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry and 73.5 rush yards per game but they've struggled against the pass by giving up a league-worst 8.6 yards per pass, which makes this short line against the high-flying Saints offense so curious. The Dolphins have been to England three times with their most recent visit in 2015 while the Saints were last overseas in 2008. If familiarity counts for anything, advantage Dolphins.
As we discussed last week, the London games are difficult to handicap. Last week's game between the Jaguars and Ravens was over before most viewers finished their first cup of coffee, which also isn’t unusual, as there have been blowouts galore overseas through the years. We refuse to wager on these games because of the uncertainties and because it’s a different animal to handicap. Just remember that Miami has an excuse for last week. They were displaced because of Hurricane Irma. They opened with an emotional win in L.A. against the Chargers and thus, they were flat against the Jets. New Orleans is a bad football team they may have caught a worse one last week. Dolphins outright. Play: Miami +140 (No bets).
NEW ENGLAND -9 over Carolina Bet365
If the Texans were getting 14 in New England last week, then the Panthers should be getting 24. Alright, maybe that’s an exaggeration of sorts but if strength of schedule counts for anything, the Panthers could be in big trouble again this week. Carolina has played San Fran, Buffalo and New Orleans and its offense didn’t look pretty in any of them, which includes a game at home against the defenseless Saints. Think about that for a second. New Orleans is the NFL’s version of the Nuggets and Kings in the NBA and Carolina couldn’t move five yards against them. Even against the 49ers in their season opener, the Panthers had weak yardage, as Cam Newton passed for just 171 yards on 14 lousy completions on 25 attempts. In Week 2 at home to Buffalo, the Panthers scored nine points. Losing by 21 to the Saints isn’t the end of the world but scoring a worthless 13 points on that team in your own building is about as bad as it gets.
What’s Newton’s excuse this week? Since the start of last season there are only two QB’s in the NFL with a lower passer rating than Cam Newton –- Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Panthers went out and got Newton a RB this year in Christian McCaffrey but that’s not helping either. Cam Newton is an unrefined pocket passer whose demise is going to come rapidly over the next few weeks but the Panthers are 2-1 so not many have taken notice yet. Sell Cam Newton now and don’t stop until the market catches up.
We all saw what Tom Brady did to the same New Orleans’ team (in New Orleans no less) that Cam Newton couldn’t move the chains on. We also saw that the Patriots get whacked in Week 1 and get whacked statistically in Week 3. Houston had more yards, more first downs, they held a significant edge in time of possession and had it not been for at least three fumbles that landed in the Patriots lap, that score would’ve been as bad as K.C.’s lopsided win in New England. In Week 1 at home, New England was an 8½-point fav against K.C. They didn’t come close to covering. In Week 3 at home against the Texans, New England once again didn’t come close to covering and needed a remarkable drive at the end and a lot of good fortune to win it. The Pats have been favored by more than a TD twice and didn’t come close to covering twice. Now they’re spotting more than a TD again and the market isn’t likely biting again. We will because New England usually responds after a bad game and our target here is to fade Cam Newton and the vile offense he’s trying to orchestrate. Play: New England -9 (No bets).
CLEVELAND +3 over Cincinnati
Cleveland lost to Indianapolis while the Bengals went into Green Bay as a 7½-point dog before they almost pulled off the upset of the day by losing in OT, 24-21. Prior to last week, Cincinnati’s stock had hit rock bottom while Cleveland’s stock was up slightly. Prior to last week, Cincinnati had not scored a TD in losing 20-0 to Baltimore in Week 1 and 13-9 to Houston in Week 2. Cincinnati will now get too much market credit for going into Green Bay, building a 21-7 lead and just missing. So, while most of this market jumps back in on Cinci, we’re jumping off because last Sunday, for that one specific day, the Pack was one of the most beatable teams in the NFL. So many things went wrong for the Pack. Aaron Rodgers threw a pick-6, they had no running game, they were sacked six times, they trailed 21-7 at halftime, they had no left tackle, no right tackle and their best defensive tackle was out too. They had a rookie covering A.J. Green yet Cincinnati could not score a single point in the second half and now we’re being asked to spot road points with them? No thank you.
We were just as disappointed by the Browns loss to Indy as everyone else that backed them. The difference is that we’re not abandoning them but we can understand why most will. Cleveland was down 28-7 to the Colts at which point everyone that backed them switched to another game. Team’s like New England and Green Bay come back from 21 down while the Brownies do not. The final score read 31-28 but a very late TD by the Brownies made the score more respectable but at the end of the day, the Browns did not cover again and lost another game. Hue Jackson got to field questions about what went wrong this time after yet another loss. He’s had to do it now 18 times out of the 19 games he’s coached since taking over as head coach of the Cleveland Browns. However, after three weeks, the 0-3 Browns are on the verge of winning. Rookie QB DeShone Kizer looks better each week. Last Sunday, Kenny Britt, Rashard Higgins and Ricardo Louis combined to catch just 6 of the 22 footballs that were thrown their way and most of those were right between the numbers. They’ll be better this week. Cleveland came within three points of beating the Steelers in Week 1 and they were the better team. In Week 2 in Baltimore, Cleveland turned it over four times in a 24-10 loss otherwise they matched the Ravens. Last week, Cleveland had more yards but Kizer threw three picks for the second game in a row and the Brownies fell behind by a big margin.
It's hard to be thrilled with this price when the Bengals have won five straight against the Browns and have outscored them by a combined score of 91-30 in the last three meetings. To that we say big BFD! The Browns were in the extremely unfamiliar role of being favored on the road last week but this week they go back to being in the familiar role of being an underdog at home. That’s a role they can embrace and play well in while the Cincinnati Bengals couldn’t beat a makeshift lineup last week and looked absolutely horrible in Week’s 1 and 2. Cleveland gets its first win of the season but we’ll play it safe (after all they are Cleveland) and take the points. Play: Cleveland +3 +105 (No bets).
Pittsburgh -3 over BALTIMORE
This one is tough. For one, the Steelers have done nothing to prove that they are worthy of being road chalk. Here’s a team that lost in Chicago as a 7-point choice and that barely got by Cleveland in the season opener for both teams. Under normal circumstances, we would be all over Baltimore but these aren’t normal circumstances. You see, the Ravens played overseas last week and we refuse to invest in games that involve teams’ going overseas the week of or the week after. There are too many unknown intangibles. Furthermore, both squads will come into this one with their stock low so there is no undervaluing here. We trust the odds makers have compensated Baltimore somewhat for traveling but it still does not give us a clear picture to choose one over the other.
The Ravens proved they could beat teams from Ohio in their first two games and most believed we would see their true mettle in Weeks 4-5 vs. Pittsburgh and at Oakland. Instead, it appears as though the Ravens players didn’t make it through customs and we were seeing the reincarnation of the 1987 scab teams. It wasn’t like they were running up against New England. This was Jacksonville. The Jags outgained the Ravens 410-186 and scored on eight of their first 10 full possessions – four touchdowns and four field goals. The Jacksonville defense is no joke, but, in some scoring formats, Joe Flacco had minus fantasy points after completing eight of 18 passes for 28 yards, two sacks, two interceptions and a passer rating of 12.0. With the twice-annual Pittsburgh bloodbath coming this week and a bar fight with the Raiders after that, they both got a lot of film to watch as to just how bad the Ravens can be when they’re off their game. Baltimore figures to be much better this week but the Steelers may be too. Hold a gun to our head and we’ll swallow the points. Play: Pittsburgh -3 (No bets).
TAMPA BAY -3 over N.Y. Giants
Odell Beckham Jr.'s urinary approach to touchdown celebrations has garnered most of the headlines for the Giants this week but don't let one player's penchant for peeing distract you from the major problems that are plaguing the G-Men. Big Blue was expected to contend for a division title but after a 0-3 start to the season, the chances of that are slim at best. New York was awful after being shutout for three-quarters against the Eagles last Sunday but they were able to put up 24 points in the final frame after scoring just 13 in their previous 11 quarters. The Giants were down 14-0 before mounting their comeback and while a three-point loss to the Eagles as a six-point pooch might look like a step in the right direction, we're not convinced. On top of sporting one of the weaker offenses in the league, the Giants cannot stop the run (they are last in the NFL at 153.3 yards allowed per game) or get out of their own way. Beckham and company were penalized 10 times for 137 yards on Sunday. Through three games, the G-Men are the fifth most undisciplined team in the league racking up 80.7 penalty yards per game.
The Buccaneers have only played two games after their season opener in Miami was rescheduled because of Hurricane Irma. In Week 2 at home in Tampa, the Bucs took advantage of four Bears turnovers in a 29-7 victory. The Buccos were a sexy preseason sleeper and after a big Week 2 win, they looked primed to beat a Vikings team minus their starting quarterback. We warned you last week that Tampa was not great against the Bears despite the score and that there was an overreaction to both that win and Sam Bradford's injury. The Bucs got whacked in Minny 34-17 but if the Dolphins get a pass after dealing with the after-effects of Irma, Tampa deserves the same benefit. The Vikings are also worlds ahead of the Jets on both sides of the ball making the Bucs defeat even more excusable.
The Giants covered last week and the Buccaneers didn't so it's not a surprise that Tampa is being sold short here in Week 4. We've read that New York’s offense “hit its groove” last week and that one, “had to like” what one saw against the tough Philly D but the G-Men are getting way too much credit for one good quarter. Don't forget they were down double-digits before all hell broke loose in a bizarre quarter of football. Where this line sits now isn't nearly as interesting as where it opened. We are always mindful of what Pinnacle is doing as they are the sharpest book in town and while most outfits posted Tampa as -3½ point favs, Pinny opened at -4½. That’s one of the prompts that will lead us to paydirt. What's less widely understood is that Philadelphia is a typical rivalry-game in which the underdog is primed to throw everything it has into a big match. The reality in New York is that last week's demoralizing loss to Philly was the game the Giants hung their hats on to get this season turned around. This Giants’ team isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just lost one and now the Giants are in line to easily get beat again. Play Tampa Bay -3 -103 (No bets).
Oakland +3 over DENVER
Both of these teams are coming off of tough losses in Week 3, but the Raiders loss struck a much deeper chord than Denver’s loss because Oakland’s occurred on Sunday Night Football. After convincing wins on the road at Tennessee and an unholy beat-down of the Jets, the Raiders had a dancing swagger they brought to Sunday Night Football with a road matchup against the Redskins. It’s one thing to lose. It’s another completely to be dominated. With five minutes to play in the game, Oakland had run just 36 offensive plays and gained 71 total yards. David Carr threw two picks and 247 fewer passing yards than Kirk Cousins, Marshawn Lynch rushed for 18 yards – more than half the team total – and Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree combined for just two catches for 13 yards. The Raiders knew they were going to have a fight on their hands going cross country to play a hungry Redskins team in prime time but the beating they took was jarring and eye-opening in this market. Great teams typically don’t get done in so completely and decisively. The Raiders got exposed for all their flaws and weaknesses by a team most don’t view as a playoff team. That Oakland loss last week makes this one look easy, as Denver rarely loses at home.
The market was torched by small road favorites last Sunday and Oakland was no exception. The Sunday night game is called the “bailout” game for a reason and the Raiders were a popular choice with the market, driving the books off the key number of three and closing at -3½. Oakland never had a lead and after just a few minutes it was clear they had no chance to cover that small number. That performance is hard to erase from one’s mind but the odds makers didn’t hesitate in putting up a small number here.
Denver is now 2-1 with wins over the Chargers and a dominating 42-7 win over the Cowboys that is still carrying a lot of weight in the market, especially after Dallas rebounded with a big win Monday night. Much has been made about Denver at Mile High where they've posted the NFL’s best home record over the past four decades. Despite all that, we have to question why this number is so low. Denver doesn’t lose at home and they whacked Dallas two weeks ago while Oakland looked brutally awful last week. This one has that “trap” ring to it and it’s for that reason, we have to side with the house. Play: Oakland +3 (No bets).
Survivor Picks - Week 4
Our Survivor picks this year will be twofold. We’ll usually recommend two choices every week, a safe one and a not so safe one. The problem with playing the popular pick or the biggest point-spread favorite is that when that team loses, you go down with a high percentage of the pool and if they keep on winning all year, the pool will be split several ways. A mix of both and avoiding potential upsets is not a bad strategy either. One of our cardinal rules is to never play road teams because big road favs get beat too often and when one inevitably goes down, it will knock out a good percentage of participants and you don’t want to be one of them.
Week 1 safe pick – Buffalo √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Minnesota √
Week 2 safe pick - Oakland √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Oakland √
Week 3 safe pick - Green Bay √ ---- Week 3 not so safe pick - Tennessee √
Week 4 safe pick – Seattle over Indianapolis
One strategy we employ is not to pick the biggest point spread favorite on the board and hope that favorite goes down and takes a high percentage of the pool with them. That strategy almost worked last week when we smelled a potential upset with Houston over New England. This week with Seattle being the biggest favorite on the board, we don’t smell a potential upset and so there is no reason to pussyfoot around. Expect poolies to be on New England, Seattle, Green Bay (Thurs), Atlanta and perhaps a few Arizona’s thrown in as well. It is of our always humble opinion that the Seahwks are the least likely to get upset this week so we will therefore push all in on them.
Week 4 Survivor picks are Seattle and Seattle
Big Al
Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore +3
Last week, the underdogs cashed 11 of 16 tickets, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points. For the season, underdogs are 26-20 ATS, including 12-7 at home. Even better: underdogs are 11-1 ATS this year if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 7 points in their previous game. And that’s the situation here with the Baltimore Ravens. Indeed, Baltimore played the worst game of any football team yet this season, and the worst in the last 3 seasons, when it lost by 37 to Jacksonville, and failed to cover the spread by 40 points. I look for the Ravens to bounce back vs. their division rival on Sunday, as home underdogs off a loss, in which they gave up 40 or more points, are 114-74 ATS since 1980. The Ravens are also 15-4 vs. Pittsburgh at home when not laying 3 or more points, including 11-1 ATS off a loss.
Bruce Marshall
Lions at Vikings
Pick: Over
Case Keenum really is not much worse than Bradford (and Bucs might say he's not worse at all), and Vikes scoring some points this season, at least in two of first three games. Stafford & Co. very capable as well, they've seen this Zimmer "D" for a couple of years now (though neither of the 2016 games was higher-scoring), and Prater can salvage drives with some long FGs. Lured in by this low 40s "total" as it does not look high enough, and Vikes trending "over" lately ^6-1 last 7).
DAVE COKIN
EAGLES AT CHARGERS
PLAY: CHARGERS -2.5
The calendar might now read 2017 and the Chargers have moved from San Diego to Los Angeles, but this is turning into 2016 all over again for this beleaguered franchise. No team in the NFL is worse when it comes to finding ways to lose games it should have won.
That’s really the only holdup for me today as this is a good matchup for the Chargers. The Eagles were extremely fortunate to win last Sunday and this team is actually pretty close to being 0-3. Props to Philly for being opportunistic in garnering a pair of wins, but they have not played good football thus far this season.
I give the Chargers the edge in scheduling here, and I rate their defense ahead of that of the Eagles through the first three weeks of action. The offenses are close, although in the case of LA, they’re erratic. That’s thanks to the inconsistency of QB Phillip Rivers, who can be either great or pretty awful. Last week he was the latter and Rivers has had a tendency to rebound from bad games, so I suspect he plays well today.
I made the Chargers -3.5 in this game and one would certainly think they play with a major sense of urgency. At 0-3, they can pretty much start looking to 2018 with another loss here. This game missed my card because I just can’t trust the team, but it’s a game I believe the Chargers should win.
Dave Price
Giants vs. Bucs
Play: Bucs -2½
The Tampa Bay Bucs opened as roughly 4-point favorites this week. Giants money has moved this line down past the key number of 3, and now I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Bucs -2.5 as today's free play. The Giants had one good quarter against the Eagles last week, and now everyone thinks they have arrived. I'm not buying it. The fact that they managed just 13 points in their first 11 quarters of the season is more telling than the fact that they scored 24 in the 4th against the Eagles last week. I think the Eagles relaxed after taking a 14-0 lead. The Bucs won't be relaxed here as they'll be chomping at the bit after getting embarrassed at Minnesota last week.
Ben Burns
Rams vs. Cowboys
Play: Rams +6½
The Cowboys are off an impressive Monday night win at Arizona. Playing on a short week, with a showdown vs. the Packers on deck, off that nationally televised win, it may be easy for the Cowboys to have a bit of an emotional letdown against the lowly Rams. Note that the Cowboys are 0-2 SU/ATS their last two, off a Monday night game.
While the Cowboys play on a short week, the Rams come in with extra rest. You may recall them beating the 49ers last Thursday. They've scored more than 40 points in two of their three games and they have yet to lose by more than seven. They're also 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Check out the visiting Rams.
Jesse Schule
Raiders vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -160
Two years ago the Denver Broncos rode the NFL's best defense all the way to victory in the Super Bowl. So far in 2017, it looks like the "no fly zone" is back in effect in Denver. The Oakland Raiders high flying offense was grounded in the nation's capital last week, and they come into Denver without their top wide receiver. Michael Crabtree is not expected to suit up, and he leads the team with 13 catches for 170 yards and three TDs. It's a huge loss for the Raiders, especially because Amari Cooper is also banged up with a sore knee. The Raiders will likely be forced to try and run the ball with Marshawn Lynch, but he ran for just 18 yards on six carries in the loss to Washington last week. Denver ranks 1st in the NFL holding opponents to just 2.6 yards per carry, and 59.7 yards per game so far. Oakland has covered the spread just once in the last 10 meetings between the two teams. I'll take the home favorite here.
John Martin
Panthers vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots -8½
The New England Patriots are hitting on all cylinders offensively right now. They have put up 33 points per game thus far and Tom Brady just threw five touchdown passes against the Texans last week. The weakness of the Panthers is their secondary, and they were exploited last week in a 34-13 home loss to the Saints. Brady will be able to take advantage as well. The Panthers are broken offensively, averaging just 15 points and 277 yards per game. Cam Newton has an injured shoulder, Greg Olsen has a broken foot and Kelvin Benjamin is doubtful with a knee injury. The Panthers just cannot be competitive on the road at New England with all of their injuries on offense.
Brandon Shively
New York at Tampa Bay
Pick: New York +3
The Giants are off to a horrendous start, but last week they showed they do have some life and fight in them
New York went down 14-0 and found some offense as they rattled off 21 unanswered points, the first real time Eli Manning and company have found some rhythm. Despite the lost, there is some reason for optimism after seeing the offense.
They take on a Bucs defense that is very vulnerable too. We saw the Vikings torch their secondary last week, something Backham Jr. and Manning should have some success with.
New York and the points is worth a move. They should have a shot to steal this one outright.
Larry Ness
Oakland vs. Denver
Pick: Denver -3
The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos, both serious AFC title contenders, square off in one of Week 4's marquee matchups late Sunday afternoon at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Both teams fell last Sunday, after each opened 2-0. The Raiders need to bounce back from a 27-10 loss at Washington, in which the team's highly-touted offense was completely dominated. As for the Broncos, despite a solid effort from their defense last Sunday in Buffalo (allowed just 272 total yards to the Bills), they fell 26-16. The winner here in this matchup of long-time AFC West rivals moves to 3-1, while the loser falls to 2-2 (3-0 Chiefs host the Redskins on MNF).
The Raiders looked great in winning 26-16 at Tennessee and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. However, the offense "went missing" in Washington last Sunday night, as QB Derek Carr passed for an anemic 118 yards with one TD and two INTs. Marshawn Lynch led the team with just 18 yards on six carries with Oakland rushing for an embarrassing 32 yards on 13 carries as a team. Overall, the Raiders were held to 128 yards and seven FDs! The defense was just as bad, as the Redskins rolled up 472 yards!
The Broncos defense did its job in Buffalo (allowed a modest 272 yards) but that was not enough to overcome Denver's offensive shortcomings. QB Trevor Siemian was 24 of 40 for 259 yards, didn't throw a TD and was picked off twice. The running game added 111 yards (4.8 YPC is good) but it was not nearly enough in this contest. The Broncos need to run the ball better to take pressure off of Siemian, who has been sacked nine times in the first three games. However, there may be some good news in this contest for Denver's rushing attack. C.J. Anderson ranks fifth in the league with 235 rushing yards and has recorded 310 scrimmage yards with four TDs in his last three games against Oakland, Meanwhile, his new RB partner, Jamaal Charles, has 962 yards and 11 TDs in 12 career meetings with the Raiders. The former Chiefs running back needs 134 scrimmage yards to become the 11th active player to record 10,000 in his career!
The Raiders quickly went from "one of the teams to beat" in the AFC to "what happened?" in just one game last Sunday night. I don't want to overreact but if Redskins' defense could 'stuff' Carr, Lynch and company, why can't Denver's outstanding defense do the same? Especially here at home, where the Broncos are 35-7 SU in the regular season since 2012! Throw in that the favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams and the play is on the Broncos.
Will Rogers
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona -6.5
The set-up: The San Francisco 49ers were 2-14 in 2016 (only the 1-15 Browns were worse and opened the 2017 season by losing 23-3 at home to Carolina 23-3 and 12-9 in Seattle. However, while the 49ers would fall to 0-3 with a Week 3 home loss to the Rams, the offensively-challenged 49ers put up 39 points in that Thursday night affair while losing 41-39 when they failed to tie the game on a late two-point conversion try. San Francisco will travel down to Glendale, Arizona on Sunday to take on the 1-2 Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals look like a vastly different team than the one that played in the NFC championship game just two seasons ago (in 2015, after a 13-3 regular season), opening 1-2 with their lone win coming 16-13 in OT against the Indianapolis Colts. That victory has been sandwiched between losses to Detroit 35-23 and Dallas 28-17.
San Francisco: The 49ers finally woke up on offense against the Rams, as QB Brian Hoyer passed for 332 yards with two TDs, after he had thrown for only 292 yards in the team's first two games. After scoring just 12 points in opening 0-2, the 49ers scored 39 points and rolled up 421 yards. However, after allowing just 35 points in the season's first two weeks (and coming off holding Seattle to just 12 points), the Rams ran up 41 points on the Niners and if LA hadn't made some major mistakes down the stretch, the contest would not have been as close as it wound up in the final score.
Arizona: QB Carson Palmer finished 29-of-48 for 325 yards and two TDs against Dallas (WR Larry Fitzgerald had 13 receptions for 149 yards and a TD). Palmer has 925 yards passing (Arizona ranks 3rd in passing YPG at 284.0) but Chris Johnson is the Cardinals’ top rusher with just 61 yards on 23 attempts. It's clear that the Cardinals are really feeling the absence of star RB David Johnson, who is out indefinitely after suffering a dislocated wrist in the season opener. Arizona is 31st in a 32-team league in rushing, averaging 59.0 YPG. The defense allows 309.0 YPG to rank 9th but unfortunately, ranks much higher in the more important points allowed category at 26th, allowing 25.3 per game.
The pick: No one (even San Fran themselves) expected the 49rers to do much in 2017 but for the Cardinals, this game could be described as a "desperate time which calls for desperate measures!" At 1-2, a home loss to the pathetic 49ers would all but doom Arizona's season by Week 4. Arizona has won five of the six meetings in the last three years against division rival San Francisco, with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2014. The Cardinals are not the 13-3 team of 2015 but we'll find out here if they have any designs on being a better team than last year's 7-8-1 edition.
LV Traders
Cincinnati at Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Sure it's a big price to lay and sure the Cubs will certainly be resting some guys on the last day of the season. That said, Chicago is starting a big league player (Montgomery) while Cincinnati is starting a minor league pitcher... McGuire is making his second start with the Reds and can't be trusted to get through the order twice. Chicago will score plenty and the Wrigley faithful will celebrate the last day of the season by flying the W.
Jim Feist
Braves at Marlins
Pick: Under
This is a big park and a weak Atlanta offense is in town on an 8-2 run under the total. The Under is 35-14-2 in the Braves last 51 vs. a team with a losing record. Miami has a strong starter going and the Under is 9-2 in Urena's last 11 Sunday starts.
Harry Bondi
Buffalo / Atlanta Over 48.5
After going under in Week 1, Atlanta has gone over the last two weeks, running its record to a remarkable 18-3-1 to the over in their last 22 games overall. We see no reason to step in front of that trend here today as the Falcons return home to their new home stadium where they put up 43 points in the first-ever home game two weeks ago. Very quietly, Buffalo has also been an “over” team with 21 over in its last 35 games overall. Put it all together and we’ll call for a shootout in Atlanta today.
Buster Sports
Jacksonville at New York
Play: Jacksonville -3.0
The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as 4 1/2 point favorites at New York and now at the time of this writing, they are only 3 point favorites and we are going to lay it with the Jaguars. Everyone seems to think that the beat down the Jets put on Miami last week makes than the hot home underdog this week. We believe different. We see rookie RB Leonard Fournette having a big day against the Jets today and the Jets struggling with the Jacksonville D. Although the Dolphins decided not to even show up last week in New York, the truth is New York has a bad run defense. The Bills ran for 190 yards and the Raiders ran for a 180 against the Jets D. The Jaguars will look to run the ball and then play defence with the third ranked D in the league. We do not see many points for the Jets today and we will look for the Jaguars to win this easily by 10 to 14 points. Backing our selection is the fact that the Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings between the clubs and the fact that the Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.