Free Picks for Sunday, October 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Alex Smart
Saints vs. Packers
Play: Saints -4
I'm not going to be shy about this , two time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, was a one man wrecking crew for the Green Bay Packers. When he went down last week vs the Minnesota Vikings with a broken collar bone, I'm sure the Packer nations hearts were broken and the fragments flushed down the proverbial toilet on a promising season. With that said, I'm not a fan of his replacement Brett Hundley, and feel strongly the Packers are now at a big disadvantage despite of playing at home this week vs New Orleans. Green Bay even when Rodgers was healthy never did very well against NFC South opposition going a sub par 9-11 SU . The last time Green Bay played without Rodgers 4 seasons ago they won only 2 of 7 games , and were just 0-4 ATS at home. Note: The Saints have given up an opponent passer rating of 56.7 during their current three-game winning streak.
Matt Josephs
Cardinals vs. Rams
Play: Under 47½
These NFC West rivals take their game to Great Britain on Sunday as they play in Twickenham. All was well with the Cardinals for a week as they beat the Bucs 38-33 last time out. They had scored just 42 points over the previous three weeks. Adrian Peterson became relevant one week and I'm not quite sure that happens again this week. Ironically, this will be Peterson's second trip overseas as he did the same with the Saints a few weeks ago. The Rams offense has been putting up good numbers, but they finally get to face another solid unit. Jared Goff has struggled a bit as of late as the team has six turnovers the last two weeks. The Rams have gone under in nine of their last 15 games as a favorite and 22 of their last 38 overall.
Carlo Campanella
Saints vs. Packers
Play: Saints -5½
After losing 2 straight (0-2 SU & ATS) to open the season, the Saints have won 3 straight games (3-0 SU & ATS) while QB Brees has the offense humming while scoring 20, 34 & 52 points the last three games. The defense has forced 9 Turnovers in those 3 victories as well. That's going to be trouble for a Packers offense that lost QB Rogers to injury last Sunday and now starts the inexperienced QB Hundley, who tossed 3 Interceptions and only completed 18 of 33 when replacing Rogers last weekend. This Packers roster isn't very deep this season and was winning behind QB Rogers and WRs Cobb & Nelson. With QB Rogers out, this line is INFLATED and Green Bay shouldn't be getting +5.5 points at Lambeau Field, which would make the Saints -11.5 point chalk if this game were played in New Orleans! There'a little value in this point spread, which is why this rates only as a 10* Play. However, expecting the Saints defense to make the difference in covering the spread by forcing some key Turnovers from a GB offense that has no running game to help out former UCLA QB Hundley as he makes his 1st NFL start.
Ray Monohan
Tennessee vs. Cleveland
Play: Tennessee -5.5
The Titans battle the Browns and this number is too small given how bad the Browns have played this year. They have struggled to even decide who gets the ball at QB. Kizer was benched for Kevin Hogan last week, but Kizer will once again get the ball here on Sunday. Offensively, Cleveland just makes way too many mistakes. Averaging only 15.7 points per game, the Browns have seen more of their punter than anyone else this season. Tennessee comes in off a huge win against the Colts, as they climbed back to the .500 mark. Derrick Henry has a huge game as he put up 131 yards and a touchdown to go with it. He will certainly get fed the ball a lot here, as this Cleveland defense has a lot of gaps in it. Some trends to note. Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall.Browns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Browns are just simply a struggle right now.
Allen Eastman
Atlanta (+3.5) over New England
I think that Atlanta is going to get a big win this weekend. The Falcons have been waiting for this game since the schedule was released. They have revenge for what happened in the Super Bowl and I think that they will get it with a win. This New England team is not as good as on the one the Falcons played in January. The Patriots defense is really struggling and they should have lost to the Jets last weekend. The Patriots already have home losses to the Chiefs and the Panthers and they almost lost at home to Houston as a 13-point favorite. Atlanta is 2-0 on the road this year and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Falcons are coming off two straight losses. I think that this team will play its best game of the season and they will bounce back after last week in a game that means a lot to the Falcons players and fans. This one should be close and will come down to the final minutes again. But I think that Atlanta has a great chance to win outright so I will take the points.
Strike Point Sports
Seattle (-6) over New York
The success the Giants found on Sunday night will be short lived as they will not stay within double-figures of the Seahawks this Sunday. Yes, this game is at home, but I would rather take the Giants as a big dog in Seattle than a smaller home dog. New York will be able to keep this game close for a little while, but the Seattle offense will wear down a Giants defense that will be on the field for much, much longer than they prefer. Russell Wilson is going to give the Giants fits with his mobility. Although the Giants secondary is tough, they won't be able to hold their coverage with Wilson being so mobile in the pocket. Look for Seattle to pull away late in this contest.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ Green Bay
Pick: Under 47.5
The biggest fear of any Packers fan, or anyone within the organization, is watching Aaron Rodgers go down with perhaps a season-ending injury. That fear was realized last week, and the Packers are simply not even close to the same team without him under center. The Packers offense suffered greatly back in 2013 without Rodgers, and it will again this year. The Packers are going to have to try to run the ball a lot more, but that is not their offense. New Orleans started 0-2 for the fourth straight season, but have won three straight games, and are staring to look a lot better. Brett Hundley completes less than 50% of his passes, has one TD to four INTs in his brief career, so we are miles from Aaron Rodgers. Think the Pack "D" knows it has to step up, but the offense is going to struggle.
Dave Cokin
Cardinals vs Rams
Play: Rame -3
Todd Gurley might think the NFL needs to stop these overseas games. But I’m hoping the Rams star running back will be singing a different tune if and when his team comes away with a win on Sunday.
I think the logistics come into play when sizing up this game. The Rams made this trip last season, and I like the familiarity aspect. I also give a thumbs up on the team’s decision to remain in Jacksonville following last week’s game before crossing the pond.
This might be more difficult for the Cardinals. They have much longer trip after playing at home last week, plus this team hasn’t made this journey previously.
No doubt about it, Arizona is off by far its best game of the season. The final score was misleading as the Cardinals demolished Tampa Bay before putting it on cruise control, and Adrian Peterson had a very positive impact in his first game after getting out of New Orleans.
But I can see life being far more difficult for QB Carson Palmer here. There might not be a more disruptive defender in the entire NFL than Aaron Donald. That guy is pretty much unstoppable at this point, and Palmer under pressure is very vulnerable to mistakes.
The Rams have been their owns worst enemy in a couple of games this season, most notably the loss to Seattle that clearly should have been a win. But I’m just not buying the Cardinals because they finally put together a strong effort last weekend. If the favorite plays this one intelligently, it’s their game to win and I’m going to spot the field goal with the Rams.
Alex Smart
Saints vs. Packers
Play: Saints -4
I'm not going to be shy about this , two time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, was a one man wrecking crew for the Green Bay Packers. When he went down last week vs the Minnesota Vikings with a broken collar bone, I'm sure the Packer nations hearts were broken and the fragments flushed down the proverbial toilet on a promising season. With that said, I'm not a fan of his replacement Brett Hundley, and feel strongly the Packers are now at a big disadvantage despite of playing at home this week vs New Orleans. Green Bay even when Rodgers was healthy never did very well against NFC South opposition going a sub par 9-11 SU . The last time Green Bay played without Rodgers 4 seasons ago they won only 2 of 7 games , and were just 0-4 ATS at home. Note: The Saints have given up an opponent passer rating of 56.7 during their current three-game winning streak. Projected score: New Orleans 27 Green Bay 17
Joseph D'Amico
Cardinals vs. Rams
Play: Cardinals +3
Adrian Peterson is just what Arizona needed to get over the hump. The veteran RB erupted for 134 YR and 2 TD's in his first game donning a cardinals uniform. The legs of Peterson will keep defenses honest and allow QB, Carson Palmer to do what he does best, throw the football. LA is a very young team with a bright future but their only decisive victory came in week 1 over an Indy tea, starting a backup QB. The Rams defense ranks 29th vs. the run and has to face AP here. the Cards "D" is very good against the rush and will slow down Todd Gurley, forcing 2nd year QB, Jared Goff (13 TD's & 10 INT's) to make mistakes. Getting 3 1/2 points here is a gift. The Road team is 5-0 ATS the L5 meetings in this series. Arizona is 4-0 ATS the L4 games played in LA. LA is 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games vs. the NFC.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals vs. Rams
Play: Under 47½
I think we get another defensive battle in London with the Rams and Cardinals. These two NFC West rivals combined for 50 in the final meeting last year, but that was all Arizona in a 44-6 win. The previous six meetings all finished with 46 or fewer points and I look for it to return to form here.
The Rams got people excited about their offense early, but they put up big numbers against bad defenses. I know the Cardinals have allowed 30+ in each of their last two games, but they had the Bucs held to just 6 points last week before taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. A mistake they won't make again after letting it get too close at the end.
The other key here is the Rams are starting to play up to their potential on defense. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas when new DC Wade Phillips moved a couple rookies into the starting lineup. They have been lights out since and I think they make life miserable for the Cardinals in this one.
UNDER is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games against division opponents and 11-5 in their last 16 off a win. It's also 7-3 in the Cardinals east 10 against the NFC West and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30+ points.
Matt Josephs
Cardinals vs. Rams
Play: Under 47½
These NFC West rivals take their game to Great Britain on Sunday as they play in Twickenham. All was well with the Cardinals for a week as they beat the Bucs 38-33 last time out. They had scored just 42 points over the previous three weeks. Adrian Peterson became relevant one week and I'm not quite sure that happens again this week. Ironically, this will be Peterson's second trip overseas as he did the same with the Saints a few weeks ago. The Rams offense has been putting up good numbers, but they finally get to face another solid unit. Jared Goff has struggled a bit as of late as the team has six turnovers the last two weeks. The Rams have gone under in nine of their last 15 games as a favorite and 22 of their last 38 overall.
Carlo Campanella
Saints vs. Packers
Play: Saints -5½
After losing 2 straight (0-2 SU & ATS) to open the season, the Saints have won 3 straight games (3-0 SU & ATS) while QB Brees has the offense humming while scoring 20, 34 & 52 points the last three games. The defense has forced 9 Turnovers in those 3 victories as well. That's going to be trouble for a Packers offense that lost QB Rogers to injury last Sunday and now starts the inexperienced QB Hundley, who tossed 3 Interceptions and only completed 18 of 33 when replacing Rogers last weekend. This Packers roster isn't very deep this season and was winning behind QB Rogers and WRs Cobb & Nelson. With QB Rogers out, this line is INFLATED and Green Bay shouldn't be getting +5.5 points at Lambeau Field, which would make the Saints -11.5 point chalk if this game were played in New Orleans! There'a little value in this point spread, which is why this rates only as a 10* Play. However, expecting the Saints defense to make the difference in covering the spread by forcing some key Turnovers from a GB offense that has no running game to help out former UCLA QB Hundley as he makes his 1st NFL start.
Teddy Covers
Bengals vs. Steelers
Play: Bengals +5½
Teddy delivered a 4-0 Sunday/Monday Night NFL sweep, now hitting 63% through the first six weeks of 2017. Teddy's riding a 67% MLB hot streak since the start of the playoffs! And Teddy went 2-0 with his first two bets of the NBA season, both easy, 'right side' winners! Don't miss a single cash all weekend long!
The Pittsburgh Steelers got a win and cover against the Chiefs last week, but it wasn’t because their offense was fixed. Pittsburgh has struggle week after week on the offensive side of the football, averaging less than 20 points per game (#22 in the NFL) despite their bevy of skill position talent. Much of the problem has come from the QB position, where, quite frankly, Ben Roethlisberger looks old. And the quotes coming out of the Steelers locker room have this bettor very concerned with the fragile mental state of this team right now.
Check out this Roethlisberger quote, talking about former tight end Heath Miller, who retired two years ago. “You develop that relationship with Heath over years and years in practice. Plus the type of person and teammate he was. He was probably the best teammate I’ve ever played with and one of the best men I’ve ever known in my life.” Contrast that quote with the Martavis Bryant ‘I want to be traded’ rumors. Note the modest production from rookie WR JuJu Smith Schuster.
Right now, Antonio Brown is the only consistent downfield weapon that they have. RB LeVeon Bell had 35 touches on the Steelers 63 offensive snaps last week – too many for a balanced offense. In three October starts, Big Ben has a 2-7 TD-INT ratio, and he currently ranks #30 out of 32 NFL QB’s in passer rating. Both TD passes during that span came on poorly thrown balls – both could have been INT’s! And it’s surely worth noting that the Steelers lauded home field edge at Heinz Field isn’t so great these days. Mike Tomlin’s squad is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven regular season tries as home chalk.
While the Steelers offense continues to struggle, the Bengals appear to have figured it out! Andy Dalton threw four picks without a TD over the first two weeks before Marvin Lewis fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese after facing a ‘near mutiny’ in the locker room. The Red Rifle completed only 54% of his passes while averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt in those games.
In the three games under new OC Bill Lazor, there’s been a ‘night and day’ type difference. Dalton’s completion percentage is up to 73%, he’s averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with a 7-2 TD-INT ratio. Tight end Tyler Kroft is developing into a solid weapon over the middle for Dalton; a team that isn’t missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert as much as they did last year. This sure feels like a ‘somebody wins it by a field goal’ kind of game. Too many points!