Dr Bob
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns are switching back to DeShone Kizer at quarterback after Kevin Hogan’s 2.8 yppp and 3 interceptions last week. The Browns quarterbacks are now on pace to throw more than 37 interceptions this season. I have Cleveland’s rush offense ranked 7th, yet they’re running the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the NFL – the Browns would be wise to utilize the ground game more often moving forward.
Marcus Mariota will face his second bottom-5 pass defense in consecutive weeks on Sunday. Mariota’s mobility was clearly hampered last Monday night but he still was able to throw for 9.2 yppp against the Colts and he will need to build on that success this week. The Browns are holding opponents to 3.0 yards per rush this season and it could be a tough day for the Titans running backs. However, I suspect the Titans will be happy just to throw the ball into the Browns’ porous secondary.
Cleveland applies to a 52-12 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams on a losing streak that have also lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread. That angle won last week with Arizona but my ratings favor Tennessee to cover so I’m going to pass on this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
My ratings have the Colts defense ranked 31st this season with most of the damage coming through the air. Even a clearly limited Marcus Mariota was able to torch the Colts for 9.2 yppp last week. However, this week’s matchup may favor Indianapolis because Jacksonville throws the ball less than any other team in the league and the Colts defense ranks a respectable 18th in opponent yards per rush. The Jaguars lead the league in rushing yards per game but they’ve done much of their damage when the game is out of reach. Jacksonville’s rush offense drops from 4th to 14th in my numbers when factoring out plays when one team has a greater than 80% in game win probability.
Indianapolis’s offense will likely need to rely on their ground game in this matchup. The Jaguars have the 3rd best pass defense in my metrics and held the Rams air attack to just 4.5 yppp last week. Jacksonville’s rush defense ranks last in the league and we could see a big game from Frank Gore if the Colts commit to the ground like they have in weeks past – Indianapolis is running the ball on 46% of plays, compared to just 39% last season, so this match-up should suit them. I think 3 is the right number so I’d lean with Indy at +3.5 and with Jacksonville at -2.5.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Despite losing their top quarterback and top running back, the Vikings offense has been respectable because of their talented wide receivers. According to Pro Football Focus, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen rank 1st and 2nd respectively on catch rate of contested targets. This week will be a good matchup against a Ravens secondary holding opposing wide receivers to just 106 yards per game.
Baltimore’s offense has been dreadful, ranking 30th in the league at just 4.5 yards per play, but that average has been dragged down by really bad offensive execution in garbage time. In fact, I have the Ravens offense ranked 20th when filtering out plays when one team has a greater than 80% in-game win probability. Minnesota’s defense has been fortunate to hold opponents to just 25% on 3rd down, nearly 10% better than any team last season – I expect the Vikings to surrender more conversions moving forward and Baltimore’s offense could surprise people in this game. My model favors Minnesota here but Baltimore applies to a 133-50-7 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss to Chicago. I’ll pass.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are somehow above .500 despite being outgained in yards per play in all 5 games this season. The usual luck factors don’t apply here either, as Miami is worse than their opponents on 3rd down, in the redzone, and turnover margin. Furthermore, the Dolphins average worse starting field position than their opponents – they’ve just made their big plays at the perfect times, which isn’t predictive moving forward.
New York’s 10th ranked pass offense gets a Dolphins pass defense ranked 25th according to my metrics. Josh McCown threw for 9.3 yppp when these two teams squared off in week 3 and I expect the Jets air attack to be successful again in this game.
Miami’s offense has been unlucky to only convert 28% of 3rd downs this season – even the worst teams typically convert more than 30% and I expect the Dolphins to improve on 3rd down moving forward. This game has one of the lowest totals of the year and I’ll lean over here.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Since the week 3 return of top cornerback Prince Amukamara the Bears pass defense ranks 5th in my metrics and they’re only getting better. Chicago held the Vikings and Ravens to a combined 3.8 yppp the last two weeks. Cam Newton only managed 4.2 yppp against the Eagles last week and I expect him to struggle again in this game.
I don’t expect the Bears offense to put up points in this game either. With a rookie quarterback, Chicago relies on their ground game calling runs on 49% of plays, which is 3rd most in the NFL. This will not be a good strategy against a Panthers rush defense ranked 2nd in my metrics, although it’s worth noting Luke Kuechly is a big part of their success and he is listed as questionable to play due to a neck injury. The Bears offense has the 5th-best redzone touchdown rate and the Panthers defense has the 3rd-worst redzone touchdown rate. Considering the quality of these two units, both of those rankings should regress towards the mean so I expect Chicago’s offense to perform worse and Carolina’s defense to perform better inside the 20 as the season progresses. I think the number on this game is fair, but I’d lean with Chicago at +3 or more if Kuechly doesn’t play.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
The Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers in this game for the first time since 2013. My quarterback model projects Brett Hundley to be about 10 points worse than Rodgers per game and, considering the look-ahead line for this game was GB -6.5, that seems to be pretty much in line with the market. However, even with Rodgers under center, Green Bay’s offense hadn’t been up to their usual standards this season – going into last week the Packers were gaining just 5.3 yppl (now 5.0 yppl). Green Bay has been lucky to score touchdowns on 73% of their redzone opportunities, no team in the last 10 years has been able to sustain that rate over the course of a season and the Packers certainly won’t without Rodgers’ magic.
Hundley playing also likely means the Packers 26th ranked defense will be only the field more often. Green Bay’s defense has relied on takeaways this season, which likely won’t very successful against Drew Brees and the Saints offense – Brees ranks 8th among active quarterbacks in interception percentage and New Orleans only has 3 turnovers this season. The 2017 version of the Saints offense has been more balanced, ranking top 10 in both rushing and passing, as the Saints are calling passes on less than 60% of plays for the first time since 2009. I expect New Orleans to move the ball successfully this week while the Packers struggle.
My ratings favor New Orleans in this game but Green Bay applies to a 144-69-6 ATS contrary indicator and teams tend to play better than expected in the first game after losing their starting quarterback. So, I’ll pass.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
After orchestrating one of the best offensive seasons of all time last year in Atlanta, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers rank just 26th in yppl this season and he’s decided to start rookie quarterback CJ Beathard this week. My metrics rank Brian Hoyer as the 5th worst quarterback this season (min 100 dropbacks), but my QB projection model doesn’t expect Beathard to play any better. In fact, it’s entirely possible Beathard could be even worse given that rookies getting their first start this late in the season don’t profile well and are usually an act of desperation, which certainly seems to be the case here. Still, it’s worth noting Beathard looked as impressive as anybody in the preseason and rallied the 49ers’ offense last week in yet another close loss. San Francisco is the first team ever to lose 5 consecutive games by 3 points or less and it’s certainly tough to bet against them given their feistiness.
Ezekiel Elliott avoided suspension once again and will play in this game. However, Elliot’s looming suspension may be a distraction all season long. After leading the league in rushing yards on more than 5 yards per carry last season, Elliot is running for just 3.7 yards per carry in 2017. It won’t be easy this week against a San Francisco rush defense holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry (5th) but Dak Prescott should have success through the air against a Niners’ defense that’s allowed 65% completions and 6.9 yards per pass play. The number on this game looks fair, so I’ll pass.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
The Giants won outright as a 13-point underdog in Denver last week as we cashed a Best Bet in a very contrary play. With new play-caller, Mike Sullivan, New York gained 4.6 yards per rush against the best run stopping unit in the league. The Giants will need a successful ground game moving forward without their best wide receivers and they have a good matchup this week against a Seattle defense surrendering nearly 5 yards per carry. The Seahawks defense has been quite fortunate to hold opponents to touchdowns on just 23% of redzone opportunities thus far, that’s 10% lower than any team in the last decade and I certainly expect Seattle to allow more redzone touchdowns moving forward. In other words, the Seahawks’ defense is not as good as it appears.
The Seahawks offense ranks 19th in yppl despite facing a soft schedule of defenses with no opponent in the top 10. The New York defense has faced two other below average offenses this season and held Detroit and Denver to 4.6 yppl and 5.5 yppl respectively. I expect the Seahawks to struggle to score in this game and I see value with the Giants again this week.
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
The Falcons defense has played better than their mediocre 22 points per game allowed implies. Atlanta ranks 9th in opponent yards per play and they play even better in close games. In fact, the Falcons defense rank 1st in my metrics only considering plays when a team has a less than 80% in-game win probability. Still, it’s worth noting Atlanta’s defense has trouble playing with big leads, last week and the Super Bowl being prime examples. The Falcons pass defense ranks 5th but they will face a tough test against Tom Brady, who spearheads the league’s 2nd best passing offense.
The game’s biggest mismatch will be New England’s defense against the Falcons offense. The Patriots have surrendered more yards per play than any team in the league. I do think the Patriots’ defense is likely to improve but Atlanta’s offense ranks first in my numbers and should be able to score easily in this game, especially with a healthier Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu.
The Falcons outgained the Dolphins 6.1 yppl to 4.5 yppl last week and my metrics show they should’ve won the game by a touchdown – in fact, Atlanta has outgained their opponents in yppl every game this season and are unlucky to be just 3-2. Teams that lose as a double-digit favorites are historically good bets the next week and Atlanta applies to a 94-49-6 ATS situation that is based on that premise. However, I don’t like going against the Patriots when the number is low given that Tom Brady is 113-59-7 ATS in his career when not favored by more than 7 points, including 2-0 ATS this season. That record is 43-12-4 ATS in regular season home games. I’ll pass.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle -4½ over N.Y. GIANTS
The Seahawks have issues to be sure. First, the running game is non-existent. Secondly, Russell Wilson has one big effort against the Rams but just average performances otherwise. He totaled four scores over the other five games and three ended with fewer than 200 passing yards. The Seahawks three wins this season have come against San Francisco by a score of 12-9, Indianapolis (46-18) but that game was tied 18-18 in the third quarter and finally a 16-10 victory against the Rams in which Seattle won the turnover battle 5-1 and did not deserve to win. The Seahawks are coming off a bye too and really have very little appeal spotting road points. We too, are rarely in favor of spotting road points but this is one of those rare occasions that we’re recommending it. You see, this wager is all about fading the Giants after an unlikely win and also all about getting behind Pete Carroll to beat Ben McAdoo.
Some of the best wagers are found the week after a team is featured in a prime time game because those are the games that have the biggest overreactions in the market. We all saw the then 0-5 Giants come up with their best performance of the year last week in Denver, where they won outright as a 13-point dog. New York had been taking a severe media backlash prior and responded but to expect another response this week is not reasonable.
Cast aside last week’s prime time result and let’s focus more on the entire picture. Prior to last week, the G-Men were officially in Cleveland Browns category, better known as a dumpster fire. It was just prior to last week’s game that Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie left the team three times in the span of one week. Cornerback Eli Apple (formerly Eli Woodward ---we guess he likes apples) said, “It’s not just one guy, it’s the whole culture”. Players can smell it and they can sense it. We’re talking about promoting an offensive coordinator to head coach. When you give a two a one job, you may win briefly like the Giants did a few times last year and like they did in Denver last week but the sharks are still circling the boat. Ben Mcadoo is not NFL head coach material. He doesn’t look the part at the podium and he doesn’t speak the part with authority and again, the players can sense it. Doesn’t look like it, doesn’t feel like it, doesn’t speak like it and you can stave off the criticism and the inevitable firing but the sharks are still circling big time. When the players don’t buy the coach it’s a recipe for a massive letdown or a lame performance after such a big win. Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells, Tom Coughlin and Pete Carroll among others have all of it, that being leadership, intelligence, accountability but McAdoo doesn’t have any of it. Coaching matters and culture matters and now that the Giants blew their load last week, they are more than likely to get back to being the completely dysfunctional family that they are and Pete Carroll and his troops will take advantage big time. The Seattle Seahawks are the sharks circling the boat this week.
MIAMI -3½ over N.Y. Jets
While the Dolphins aren’t getting much credit for beating Atlanta last week, the spotlight is on the Jets getting hosed by the refs and nearly beating the Patriots. At worse, that game should have gone to OT. It’s hard enough for the Jets to go up against New England with a legitimate chance to win. That job gets much more difficult when the refs are jobbing you. The NFL officials have drawn a line in the sand that the bogus turnover call against Austin Seferian-Jenkins doesn’t get any more logical the farther away it gets. Did the Jets get hosed? Absolutely but what it did was shine a light on them that we can attempt to take advantage of. The Jets have the attention of the market, especially after Josh McCown passed for 354 yards and two scores last week. The Jets are 3-1 over their past four games and had they not been hosed by the refs, perhaps they would be on a 4-0 run. They also caught the attention of the market on Sunday by going up 14-0 early. However, the Jets also lost in Oakland by 25 points and in Buffalo by nine. McCown hasn't broken 200 passing yards in any road game this year and the only road win that the Jets have is in Cleveland in a game they were thoroughly dominated in. Remember, the Jets were supposed to go 0-16 this year but some bounces and attention has them getting a little too much credit here.
Miami has played the Chargers, Jets, New Orleans, Tennessee and Atlanta. Do you have any idea what all those games have in common? If not, allow us. All five have gone under the total, which is a true testament to how good the Dolphins defense has been and it’s all legit. Analytics love the Dolphins defense and that’s a big problem for New York on the road or anywhere for that matter.
Back in Week 3, the Dolphins played in New York and lost 20-6. The six points that Miami scored was completely meaningless, as it happened on the last play of the game. Put no weight on that game, as Miami’s Week 1 game was cancelled due to Irma, they traveled to the West Coast to play the Chargers in Week 2 and traveled to New York in Week 3. The Fish had already been displaced and came up lame or flat against the Jets. It happens all the time but what we do know is that the Dolphins took it in the chin by fans and media afterward. There's every reason for general optimism about a Dolphins great defense that tamed both Atlanta and New Orleans among others and that is out to atone for a lopsided loss to these Jets that prompted a media backlash. It's time to sell, as the Jets' offense won't look nearly as good versus a schedule that featured three of the most defensively inept teams in the league.
Cincinnati +199 over PITTSBURGH
If we’re keeping with our philosophy of reacting to the market’s overreaction than there are just two ways to play this game. You either lay-off completely or take the Bengals. We’ll choose the latter. The Steelers/Chiefs marquee matchup last week was seen by millions and the way that the Steelers dominated the then undefeated Chiefs reverberated throughout the betting world. Pittsburgh made Kansas City look very ordinary and it would therefore be very difficult to bet against the Steelers, especially when the opposition is the 2-3 Bengals coming off a bye.
The Bengals lost 20-0 to Baltimore to open the year. The following week they looked even worse in a 13-9 home loss to the Texans in a Thursday night prime time game. The last time we saw the Bengals was two weeks ago when they barely got by the Bills, 20-16. Cinci’s only other win was against the Brownies so their market appeal is low while the 4-2 Steelers’ market appeal is high after that gem they threw up last week. Let us remind you that the Steelers were whacked by Jacksonville, lost to Chicago, got lucky to beat Cleveland and despite absolutely dominating K.C. last week, (Pittsburgh had more first downs in first half than K.C had yards), the Steelers almost lost! Last week we pointed out that Ben Roethlisberger has mentally checked out. We pointed out all the things that Big Ben hates about playing football. He didn’t have a good week in K.C. and we also have to wonder if maybe the Chiefs were flat after five intense weeks of football. This is still an undisciplined, poorly coached, weed smoking Pittsburgh team and we’re not switching gears on them because of what they did last week.
While many spent the offseason and early portion of the year slobbering all over the Steelers and discounting the Bengals, it’s now time to take advantage of that. The Bengals are riding a wave of a youth movement to the top of the NFL in just about every important defensive statistical category. What is not being talked about is that the Bengals have been solid for three straight games. They went into Green Bay and lost in OT in a game they should’ve won. They crushed the Browns and then beat a pesky Bills’ squad. In their past three games, the Bengals have played smart, efficient football. OC Bill Lazor has the quick-hitting pass game up and humming to fit Andy Dalton’s style and skills. The rotating cast of thousands on defense is flexing both its youth and depth. Geno Atkins has been unblockable.
This is the NFL, land of no sure things. Two weeks ago, the Pittsburgh papers were full of headlines wondering, “Is this the end for Ben?’’ and “Panic time for Steelers?’’ Then the Steelers go into K.C. and beat the unbeaten Chiefs. Winning at Heinz and beginning a run to take over the AFC North was not probable for decades but this year is a different story. It is probable for a healthy and confident Cincinnati team that is as talented as any Bengals’ team we’ve seen since 1988. Nobody is talking about the Bengals right now so get in before their stock soars. Keep the points my friends, Bengals outright is the call.
Baltimore +210 over MINNESOTA
The Vikings are 4-2 and paved their road to the NFC North title by steamrolling Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers, breaking his collarbone in Sunday's 23-10 home win. While a victory over the Packers might look impressive, it's hard to put much stock into anything that happened in that game after Rodgers went down. Even as Green Bay struggled to move the ball, it never really felt like the Vikings were going to run away with the game. If not for three interceptions by the Minnesota defense, there was a real possibility the Vikings may have lost that game. Think about that for a moment. It was 14-10 at halftime and while the Vikings did shut out Green Bay in the second half, Minny's offense was awful in failing to score a touchdown. It took three Kai Forbath field goals to nail down the victory. The Vikings ripped the Packers hearts but lacked the killer instinct to finish them off. That should be a concern moving forward. While the Vikings defense gets consideration by some as a top unit, the stats under the hood tell a different story. The Vikes rank 11th in total defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) but their defense was just 16th before the Packer game. The Vike's managed to climb five spots in just one week but it was on the back of a completely overwhelmed back up QB that has barely sniffed the field. It was Minnesota's ability to stuff the Packers run game that really affected their jump this week, as its pass defense is still in the middle of the pack (16th) after Week 6.
This one sets up perfectly for the Ravens after they dropped an overtime decision to the Bears at home last Sunday. While the loss looks bad, Baltimore fell victim to the in-game variance we talk about all the time when a costly fumble in overtime set the Bears up for the game-winning field goal. It doesn’t matter that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky was held to just 113 yards passing or that Baltimore won the turnover battle 2-1. There were actually five fumbles in that game, four of which were forced by the Ravens but three of those bounced in favor of the Bears including the one that helped decide the game. Turnovers are not a skill-based statistic and the next time the ball could bounce the Ravens way. Baltimore’s defense is still playing at a high-level by ranking 5th in total defensive DVOA and second against the pass at -20.3%. A big part of the Ravens success has been their ability to cover number one wide receiver, ranking second in that category and while who is and isn’t a number one receiver on some teams can be subjective, this unit has been just about as stingy against number two receivers as well (8th). The Ravens have also been good at covering pass catching runners by posting a solid DVOA rating that is good for eight in the NFL. This is a good matchup for a defense that is playing at a very high level.
The Ravens were a -5½ point favorite at home last week and now are being given that same number of points just a week later. That’s a major 11-point swing from one Sunday to another. Honestly, what have the Vikings done to deserve this kind of respect in the market? A double-digit win over a devastated Packers team missing the best quarterback in the league is not impressive. In fact, after Rodgers left the game and the in-game line was readjusted, the Vikings were a -5½ point favorite when the score was 7-7. Should a team featuring one of the league’s best defenses really be priced in the same range as the Rodgerless Pack? We don’t think so. This game has a total of just 39, the second-lowest total on the board in Week 7, which puts the Vikes behind the eight ball when it comes to coving a near touchdown spread. We're calling the upset and taking the Ravens outright.
NEW ENGLAND -3½ over Atlanta
While many in the media and market are ready to report the demise of the mighty Patriots, we’re not ready to heap dirt on the defending Super Bowl champs just yet. New England’s struggles on defense have been well documented this season and struggling to stop Josh McCown and the Jets likely didn’t do much to build confidence in the market. As bad as the numbers are for the Pats’ defense, the offense has more than compensated for it. New England is 2nd in Offensive DVOA at 26.1% a full eight points higher than the third-ranked Saints. Brady is first in DYAR making him the most irreplaceable quarterback in the league according to that advanced metric. Brady is also third in quarterback DVOA and fourth in QBR. The NFL is still a passing league and as long as Brady is at the helm, the Patriots have a shot to put up some crooked numbers. A slow start is not unusual for the Pats either. They kick into gear as the season wears on and when the chips are down.
The Super Bowl hangover has been real for these Falcons. Atlanta lost last Sunday as a 13-point home favorite over the Dolphins. While that loss looks really bad, it’s important not to overact to one game so let’s have a look at Atlanta’s body of work so far this season. Truth be told, there have been cracks in its foundation since Week 1. This team nearly lost as a -6-point favorite in the opening week at Chicago, as the Bears had the ball with the chance to score the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds. Atlanta had a high profile win over the Packers in Week 2 but the Falcons were outgained by Green Bay. The Dirty Birds were lucky to escape Detroit with a W in Week 3 after the Lions had their game-winning touchdown taken off the board on a questionable call. To round it all out, the Falcons lost at home to the Bills as -8 point chalk. Atlanta could easily be 0-5 or 1-4 and the numbers back up their poor performance. For all the talk about how disappointing the Patriots defense has been, the Falcons have not been much better by sporting the number 27th unit in the league in total defensive DVOA. When comparing quarterback play, it’s been no contest. Matty has been ice cold, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns this season while star receiver Julio Jones has yet to hit pay dirt and has played the role of decoy rather than number one receiver this season.
Atlanta is being forgiven for last week’s loss to Miami because of the “look-ahead” angle. Man, do they owe the Patriots one. The Falcons dominated the Pats for three quarters in the Super Bowl and with New England appearing as a shell of its former self, we can understand all the reasoning behind backing the Falcons. This has been called a “revenge” game for the Falcons but that is just a talking point for the pundits and pick sellers. We doubt there is any amount of “revenge” that could be inflicted by these Falcons to ease the sting of giving up the biggest lead in Super Bowl history. The more likely scenario is that head coach, Dan Quinn and QB Matt Ryan cry themselves to sleep at night for mismanaging the biggest game they’ll ever be in and they’ll never get over it. Not here, not ever. A twelve-year-old playing Madden could have closed out that game. The Falcons are damaged goods and they lack the killer instinct that has become the Patriots’ trademark. The Pats opened as -3½ point favorites on a neutral field in January and now they are spotting that same price at home. It’s not often we get a deal on New England but that’s the case here and we’re on it.
Randall The Handle
BEST BETS
Jaguars (3-3) at Colts (2-4)
Perhaps the Jaguars are unreliable with their win-lose-win-lose pattern, but they have at least shown that they can blow out a team or two (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). Sure, Jax QB Blake Bortles may cause you to shake your head most days, but a ninth-ranked defence and the top rushing offence in the league can cover up Bortles’ inadequacies. Colts don’t have such fallbacks. Indianapolis is dead last in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed and 30th in passing yards permitted. Yes, Indy has a couple of wins, but those victories have been against the league’s only two winless team as Cleveland and San Francisco are a combined 0-12. Each of those victories were by a field goal. Now the feeble Colts must play on a short week after watching a 19-9 lead over Tennessee quickly turn into a 36-22 defeat on Monday night. Jacksonville is 3-0 vs. spread after a loss and should up that stat here. TAKING: JAGUARS –3
Cardinals (3-3) at Rams (4-2)
One win does not change the course of the hideous Cardinals. Arizona is an old and slow team that is resting on its 2015 laurels. The ages of its three marquee players (Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson) totals 103 years. No wonder the team has so much trouble scoring. The Cards did manage to rack up 38 points last week, but that was against the gutless Buccaneers. Arizona has faced one team currently above .500 and that game resulted in a 34-7 crushing by the Eagles. The Cardinals needed overtime to take down both the Colts and Niners before last week’s win over Tampa. Let’s just say the wins lack merit. Now Arizona, which ranks 28th in points allowed, will face the top scoring offence in the league and will do so with key guys out of lineup and others on the limp. The Cards’ first trip to London figures to be an unpleasant one. TAKING: RAMS -3½
Broncos (3-2) at Chargers (2-4)
The Giants caught Denver flat-footed in front of a national audience with the Broncos on short end of an embarrassing 23-10 home defeat after being favoured by as many as 13 points. Hours earlier saw the Chargers trip up Oakland in a 17-16 win. The oddsmakers knows the “what have you done for me lately” mentality that accompanies bettors and after Denver’s colossal failure, they had to make the Bolts chalk here. That’s just wrong and we’ll gladly take back what is offered with the superior team. The Chargers are at home, but that’s hardly an advantage in their neutral-crowd soccer stadium. More importantly, the Broncos will be focused on stopping the run here after the G-Men cracked Orange’s previously impenetrable run defence and, without Melvin Gordon taking pressure off Philip Rivers, the Chargers could be in for a long afternoon. Do note, teams that lost their previous game as a 10 or more favourite have covered 34-of-53 in following game. TAKING: BRONCOS +1
THE REST
Titans (3-3) at Browns (0-6)
Cleveland continues to churn out losses and, without being offered an abundance of points, they simply have to be avoided. We don’t expect you to risk your cash on a team that has one win its previous 25 games and even with points allotted in almost all of those games, the Browns have managed just five covers in that same span. The quarterback horror movie continues as Cleveland will send rookie QB DeShone Kizer back out as its starter after being benched for Kevin Hogan. Kizer’s start in the NFL has been atrocious with a completion rate of 51% which includes just three touchdowns compared to nine interceptions in four starts. Tennessee DC Dick LeBeau is 21-3 lifetime against rookie throwers. Titans can ill afford to look past Browns as they are in three-way dead heat for division. TAKING: TITANS –5½
Bengals (2-3) at Steelers (4-2)
Steelers’ nation is all giddy again after Pittsburgh knocked off only remaining unbeaten team with 19-13 victory at Kansas City. It could be a short lived celebration. We’ve seen the acute inconsistency of the Steelers this year after losing to the Bears, being lambasted at home by the Jaguars, but then taking down aforementioned Chiefs. We’re not willing to trust them here when spotting points to a Cincinnati team that is feeling good about itself after turning a 0-2 start into a 3-2 mark currently. Having made a change at offensive co-ordinator, along with return of defensive leader Vontaze Burfict after suspension, has the Bengals back in the thick of things in the AFC North. Pittsburgh offence not scaring anyone these days having surpassed 19 points only once in past four while Cincy defence shutting down opposing foes. Too many points in what figures to be a close one. TAKING: BENGALS +5
Ravens (3-3) at Vikings (4-2)
Watching the Ravens play can hurt your stomach. Even so, we’ll take some antacids here and try to get through it. Baltimore’s offence is one of the weaker units in the league right now. Fortunately, they are playing a team that mirrors the Ravens in that way as the Vikings have lost both their starting quarterback and running back and points will be coming at a premium as a result. While Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has struggled this season, he still trumps Minny backup Case Keenum, the latter being a game manager at best. The Vikings could also be caught napping here as they come off big win against Packers and will fly to England after this game for game in London next week. For whatever reason, teams heading over there have covered just 14 of the past 38 in game prior. Blimey! TAKING: RAVENS +5½
Jets (3-3) at Dolphins (3-2)
The first current-season revenge game has the Jets visiting southern Florida after New York took down the Dolphins 20-6 in Week 2. Yes, the Jets have been a surprise with their competitive nature despite a subpar roster while the Fish are an enigma that few can figure out. At least the Jets have the decency to be at .500 after being outscored 130-109 on the year, unlike Miami which sits at 3-2 even though it has been out-pointed 84-61. Miami also has the dubious distinction of being the league’s lowest-scoring club, averaging just over 12 points a game. Do we really want to be spotting any points with a club with such offensive limitations? We’ll say “yes” to that question as Fins home for only second time this season. They beat Tennessee on this field and they return to it after a confidence-building win at Atlanta last week. TAKING: DOLPHINS –3
Panthers (4-2) at Bears (2-4)
Another one of many teams this year that you don’t know what you’re getting has the erratic Panthers visiting Chicago. Have to admire an undermanned Bears team this year for a pair of gritty wins, but at this small price, the talent levels between the clubs has us giving away the few required points. Carolina has had 10 days rest after loss to ascending Eagles. While you never know which Cam Newton shows up, we do know that Carolina’s stodgy secondary should have little trouble controlling rookie QB Mitch Trubisky. Despite an overtime win last at Baltimore, the neophyte pivot was just eight of 16 for 113 yards passing. That’s simply not going to cut it against this opponent. Good to be the road team where Panthers are involved as the visitor is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) this season in Carolina games. TAKING: PANTHERS –3
Saints (3-2) at Packers (4-2)
We use the “overreaction” term quite frequently in this space and this is a classic case. When preliminary lines were released for this game, prior to last week’s game and the Aaron Rodgers injury, the Packers were a 6½-point choice in this game. Of course, the loss of arguably the league’s best quarterback is impactful, but to have this spread swing 12 points is simply overdoing it. Backup Brett Hundley will get his first ever start here. He has had a good mentor, having been in Green Bay since being drafted in 2015. The precocious quarterback has had impressive pre-seasons, which followed a stellar college career at UCLA. Linemakers know that John Q. Bettor believes that the Packers have no chance now with Rodgers out and have inflated this line in response. At Lambeau and against Saints’ suspect defence, we’ll expect a competitive effort from the host. TAKING: PACKERS +5½
Cowboys (2-3) at 49ers (0-6)
San Francisco has set some sort of ineptitude record by losing five straight games by three points or less. While some may reason that taking the near touchdown here makes sense based on the unusual feat, we’re thinking the opposite. If five times has never happened before, what are the odds that it happens a sixth consecutive time? Let’s also not ignore the amount of times that San Fran has had double-digit deficits before scoring some garbage time points to make it look close. Of course, the Niners could always win this game to break the streak but that seems like a longshot against a rested Cowboys squad who will be facing a rookie QB for San Francisco as C.J. Beathard will make his first career start. Note that road favorites after a bye are on a 49-23 (68.1%) ATS run. TAKING: COWBOYS –6
Seahawks (3-2) at Giants (1-5)
Giants fresh in everyone’s minds after pulling off major upset in Denver last week while the Seahawks have been off for a couple of weeks after enjoying their bye. Outta sight, outta mind, let us remind you that Seattle has a stingy run defence and that the Giants don’t have front-line receivers after their top guys have all been shelved with injuries. Seattle’s previous game was a win against the Rams, holding the league’s top-scoring team to a mere 10 points. While the Seabirds’ offensive capacity raises concerns, we don’t see how the G-Men score enough points here to stay within range. Hard to imagine this battered host can succeed vs. Broncos and Seahawks on consecutive weeks. Inconsistent Giants also 1-4 ATS in past five games following both a straight up win and a spread cover. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –5½
Falcons (3-2) at Patriots (2-3)
Maybe Atlanta has stunk out the joint this season in anticipation of this one after blowing the infamous 25-point lead in last year’s Super Bowl? Unlikely, but we are expecting the Falcons to rise to this occasion considering how vulnerable the Patriots have become defensively. New England is dead last in the NFL in both total yards and passing yards allowed. Every quarterback that the Pats have faced this season has passed for at least 300 yards which includes last week’s contest against aerially challenged Jets. Even journeyman QB Josh McCown was able to rack up 354 yards through the air in that game after not reaching 250 yards in any game this year. Atlanta may be struggling but Matt Ryan and Co. should be able to take advantage. New England also not feared at home these days where they are 0-3 vs. spread this season. TAKING: FALCONS +3½
Redskins (3-2) at Eagles (5-1)
A rematch after the Eagles defeated the Redskins 30-17 on opening week. While the Redskins have shown improvement since then, Philadelphia has proven to be a top club in the NFL. Home after a big win in Carolina and on 10 days rest, these Eagles should be even stronger with the return of stalwart RT Lane Johnson after sitting out last week with a concussion and the Redskins suffering a blow to its defensive front four when impressive rookie Jonathan Allen broke his foot last week. Washington is playing well, having won three of past four, but were manhandled in opener when QB Kirk Cousins was under siege most of the game and the Eagles were able to force four turnovers. The Eagles are making money for their backers, currently on a 7-2 run vs. the number and they get the nod here. TAKING: EAGLES –4½
Marc Lawrence
Cowboys vs. 49ers
Play: 49ers +6½
Edges - 49ers: 5-1 SU at home following three consecutive away games; and 8-3-1 ATS in this series; and 8-4 SUATS last 12 games versus NFC East opponents… Cowboys: 3-11 ATS as road chalk with Garret against foes off an ATS win… With the Niners returning home off five straight losses by a filed gal or less, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Scott Spreitzer
Baltimore at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -5
The Baltimore offense is an absolute disaster. They're completely one-dimensional, unable to pass the football with any kind of consistent success. The only mode of transportation that has worked at all this season has been the ground game, but they're running into the 3rd stingiest run defense in the NFL. Last week was so bad, not only did they gain just 291 total yards, but the Ravens' offense didn't score a single TD. Defensively, the Ravens are one of the three worst teams against the run and we expect the Vikings' offense, ranked 12th in both the run and pass, to be able to distance themselves from Baltimore throughout the course of the contest. The Vikings are on a 20-6 ATS run at home and we'll lay the points on Sunday.
Bruce Marshall
Broncos at Chargers
Pick: Under
Total" is dropping and don't like this quite as much since it dipped below 42. But expect ultra focus from Denver "D" after G-Men loss, and Broncos have seen so much of Rivers over the years. These teams rarely get involved in shootouts. Siemian and Denver red zone offense struggling, McManus missing some FGs, and now the receiving corps taking Giants-like attrition. Could be a 16-13 sort of game.
Brandon Shively
Broncos at Chargers
Pick: Broncos
The Denver Broncos open at a nice number here against the Chargers on Sunday.
Denver gets a huge edge here thanks to how good their defense is. The Broncos rank 1st in total defense, allowing just 261.8 yards per game. They are always causing issues for opposing QBs as they are constantly bringing different blitz packages and putting pressure on in the backfield.
Denver also is able to control the tempo of games with their running game. They are averaging 123.6 yards, which ranks 9th in the NFL.
Los Angeles has really struggled to close games out. Scoring will be at a premium for them, as this matchup just isn't a good one for them.
Mike Anthony
Carolina vs. Chicago
Play: Carolina -3
Carolina get solid pass blocking, and they have had some powerful good run blocking as of late as well. Getting their QB open lanes to move as shown with his 161YDs, which is 2nd on the team. Carolina's 3rd yr WR Devin Funchess is picking up big games and 51 YPG - he is a big, strong WR and is a great WR2 for the Panthers. Carolina can't give up too many big catches from the Bears RBs, of course - but I don't trust the QB of Chicago to make that a problem. The Panthers will rely on their many offensive sets to push the Bears defensive units- as well as their big WRs being the main chain movers in their solid passing game. Carolina has been playing really well and Chicago cant defend the goal line very well. With Mitchell Trubisky, no real pass catching TE, and a weak WR group - we are obviously looking at a Chicago team with young, and lackluster scoring aerial attack. Chicago hasn't been able to move the ball in the air with threat for what seems like many years. The interesting thing to me about this game, is how high of expectations Chicago have had for a developing player like Trubisky. Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Carolina wins by 7 or more on Sunday.
Joe D'Amico
Arizona vs. Los Angeles
Play: Arizona +3
Adrian Peterson is just what Arizona needed to get over the hump. The veteran RB erupted for 134 YR and 2 TD's in his first game donning a cardinals uniform. The legs of Peterson will keep defenses honest and allow QB, Carson Palmer to do what he does best, throw the football. LA is a very young team with a bright future but their only decisive victory came in week 1 over an Indy tea, starting a backup QB. The Rams defense ranks 29th vs. the run and has to face AP here. the Cards "D" is very good against the rush and will slow down Todd Gurley, forcing 2nd year QB, Jared Goff (13 TD's & 10 INT's) to make mistakes. Getting 3 1/2 points here is a gift. The Road team is 5-0 ATS the L5 meetings in this series. Arizona is 4-0 ATS the L4 games played in LA. LA is 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games vs. the NFC.
Ray Monohan
Tennessee vs. Cleveland
Play: Tennessee -5.5
The Titans battle the Browns and this number is too small given how bad the Browns have played this year. They have struggled to even decide who gets the ball at QB. Kizer was benched for Kevin Hogan last week, but Kizer will once again get the ball here on Sunday. Offensively, Cleveland just makes way too many mistakes. Averaging only 15.7 points per game, the Browns have seen more of their punter than anyone else this season. Tennessee comes in off a huge win against the Colts, as they climbed back to the .500 mark. Derrick Henry has a huge game as he put up 131 yards and a touchdown to go with it. He will certainly get fed the ball a lot here, as this Cleveland defense has a lot of gaps in it. Some trends to note. Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall.Browns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Browns are just simply a struggle right now.
Jim Feist
Broncos at Chargers
Pick: Broncos
The Denver Broncos phoned in their game at home last week against an 0-5 Giants team. If there was ever a team that figured showing up on the field would get them the win, it was this Broncos team. Unfortunately, this is the NFL and any team can win on any Sunday. The Broncos looked horrible against the Giants both on offense and defense. Now the Broncos hit the road for LA or somewhere around LA to face the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a huge win over the Raiders on a last second field goal win, 17-16. Denver suffered some injuries in the loss to both starting WR's Emmanuel Sanders (out indefinitely) and Demaryius Thomas (should play). QB Trevor Siemian also left for some time with a shoulder issue, but returned and had to throw over 50 times in the loss. The Chargers are much improved on defense and almost pulled the upset at Denver earlier this season. I am taking the points here with the home team.
Big Al
New Orleans vs. Green Bay
Pick: Green Bay +5.5
Obviously, Green Bay will be a shell of its former self for the remainder of this season. But I’m still going to step in and take the Packers as a home underdog this week. And, frankly, this is not so much a play on Green Bay as it is a play against New Orleans. And that’s because Drew Brees & Co. come into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, and with a 3-2 overall record. But unrested road teams are an awful 77-126 ATS if they won and covered their three previous games, and are now matched up against a winning opponent. Additionally, the Packers are 24-7 ATS at home vs. opponents with a .500 (or better) record, while New Orleans is a poor 11-21 ATS as a road favorite.
Michael Alexander
Carolina vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago +3.5
Chicago rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky had an encouraging debut and has gotten the Bears a pair of ATS covers and an upset win at Baltimore in his two starts. Additionally John Fox has been covering spreads with a bunch of different QBs (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, Glennon, and Trubisky) while posting a 7-1-1 home underdog record since a year ago. That ATS log will continue as long as running back Jordan Howard (167 yards rushing vs. Ravens) has a good game and can remove pressure from Trubisky. Although Carolina is 3-0 on road some of Cam’s bad habits with 3 interceptions reared their ugly head vs. Eagles, and Panthers haven't had an easy win since their opener versus San Francisco.
Brandon Lee
Seahawks vs. Giants
Play: Seahawks -3½
The fact that the Giants dominated on the scoreboard, winning by 13 as a 13.5-point dog will have a lot of people second-guessing themselves when it comes to whether or not they should fade them again this week.
On top of that, the Seahawks haven’t exactly looked great so far, despite the fact that they are 3-2. I believe it’s actually created some value here on Seattle, as I think they have no problem winning by at least a touchdown in New York.
I believe the Giants caught the Broncos off guard, as a lot of people just thought this team would lay down after they lost both Odell Beckham Jr and Brandon Marshall. New York instead turned to their running game, rushing it a season-high 32 times. They piled on 148 yards against a Denver run defense that had been outstanding, which only strengthens my thought process that the Broncos just didn’t show up with the right mentality.
That’s not going to be the case with Seattle, who now has a good idea of what to expect from this new-look Giants offense. The Seahawks have routinely had one of the best defenses in the NFL and with the talent they have in the secondary, they will be able to load the box and take away that running game.
Another key factor here is that the Seahawks have a big scheduling advantage coming off their bye. That extra week to prepare and recharge the mind and body is huge this time of year. Not to mention the Seahawks have historically been a team that starts slow and turns it on about this time under Pete Carroll.
New York is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a straight up win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after holding their previous opponent under 90 yards rushing. Seattle is 50-33 ATS after the first month of the season since Carroll took over as head coach and 10-4 against teams from the NFC East.
Cappers Club
Titans vs. Browns
Play: Titans -5½
The Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns face off on Sunday, and the visiting team have the advantage here.
The Cleveland Browns have been well, the Cleveland Browns this year, and that isn't a good thing at all.
The Browns have lost all six games so far this year, and in last five of those games they have failed to cover the spread.
They are going back with DeShone Kizer in this game and he has really struggled this year. He has thrown for 851 yards and three touchdowns.
The big issue though is he has thrown nine picks. I think that he will struggle again in this game and that will be the difference.
Some trends to note. Road team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Cleveland.