Chip Chirimbes
Titans vs. Browns
Play: Browns +6
There is something 'not right' with the Titans. I can't say what it is but something about them us just 'not right.' I like Mariota and their running backs but I see so many holes. The Browns on the other hand have 'nothing right' and it just seems to get worse day by day. Back to Kizer at QB who knows maybe he can lead this group to its first win of the season.
DAVE COKIN
BENGALS AT STEELERS
PLAY: UNDER 41
Divisional duel between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Bengals are playing pretty solid defense for the most part, and that’s allowing them to compete. The Cincinnati offensive line remains a problem and Andy Dalton just isn’t very good when he doesn’t get good pass protection. As for the Steelers, they’re showing better than I expected on defense and I think this team is going to end up being a very serious contender to get to the Super Bowl.
As for today, even if one is not a trend player, it’s tough to just ignore so many of them that point to the low in this game. I’ve also got to believe the Bengals are game planning to shorten this game as much as they can to get to the late stages with a chance to win. I don’t see Cincy with much of a shot if this turns into an offensive shootout. Since the Bengals have been showing overall improvement, I can see them accomplishing that goal here and turning this into a grinder.
It’s a lowish number but I would make the Under the way to play this Bengals-Steelers rivalry battle.
Mike Lundin
Panthers vs. Bears
Play:Panthers -145
The Chicago Bears picked up their second win of the season with a 27-24 OT win as a 5.5-point dog at Baltimore last week. Rookie QB was 8-of-16 passing for 113 yards and a TD as the Bears did most of their damage on the ground, but that might be tough here against the Panthers who rank 5th in the NFL against the run while allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. We can also note that the Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
The Panthers will play on 10 days' rest after losing 28-23 to the Philadelphia Eagles last Thursday night. They're 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss and 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this season.
Chicago has a solid defense ranked 6th in total defense, but I don't think the Bears will be able to keep up with an angry and well rested Panthers team coming off a loss
John Martin
Cowboys vs. 49ers
Play: 49ers +6½
The San Francisco 49ers get no respect because of their 0-6 record. But each of their last five losses have come by 3 points or less, becoming the first team in NFL history to accomplish that feat. And we're getting 6.5 points here against a Dallas Cowboys team that has allowed 11 touchdown passes the last four weeks while only getting one interception. Their secondary is terrible, which means the back door is always going to be wide open for the 49ers. They made a nice comeback and arguably should have beaten the Redskins last week, losing 24-26 after a fluky offensive pass interference penalty took them out of field goal range in the closing seconds. The Cowboys have all kinds of distractions right now with Ezekiel Elliott and the national anthem controversy. I just don't trust them going on the road and winning by a touchdown or more here to cover this inflated spread.
Jack Jones
Ravens vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings -4
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over. They have been especially tough at home, going 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games. And they have shown well at home this year.
The Vikings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game. Their defense is one of the top units in the NFL, giving up just 17.2 points per game, 295 yards per game and 5.0 per play.
Now they're up against arguably the worst offense in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens. This is a Ravens offense that is putting up just 19.0 points per game, 289 yards per game and 4.7 per play. Joe Flacco looks lost behind a shaky offensive line and a receiving corps that can't stay healthy.
Just take one look at the Ravens' injury report and it will open your eyes. No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than the Ravens. They just can't field a competent team right now. They lost by 37 to the Jaguars, by 17 to the Steelers, and then lost at home to the Bears last week despite getting two gift special teams touchdowns.
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 7-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last three years. Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss. The Vikings are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
Scott Rickenbach
Ravens vs. Vikings
Play: Ravens +5
Technically, this is a revenge game for the Vikings as they did lose their last game versus the Ravens in Baltimore when they most recently met in 2013. The significance in that is that the Vikings are just 1-7 ATS when they are favored and playing with revenge and they're facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Indeed the Ravens were favored at home versus Chicago last week and went to lose that game in OT. Suffice to say, Baltimore is in an angry mood here and will be ready to go! The Ravens did lose in London this season but in their other "true" road games they are 2-0 and have won those games by a combined score of 50 to 17. Minnesota is off of a big divisional win last week (versus Green Bay) but of course they took advantage of Aaron Rodgers getting injured in that game. Points are likely to be at a premium in this one as you can tell by the O/U posted on this one. That is particularly noteworthy here because the Vikings are 9-17 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 38 points. Grab the generous points being offered here.
Dave Price
Falcons vs. Patriots
Play: Falcons +3½
The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will be wanting revenge on the New England Patriots for blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. They should get it here with an outright victory. We've already seen the Patriots lose outright at home to the Panthers and Chiefs, and they were fortunate to beat the Texans, needing a last-second touchdown to win that game. They were also fortunate to beat the Jets last week thanks to a questionable overturned touchdown on a fumble through the end zone by the Jets. The Patriots simply aren't very good this season, especially defensively. The Falcons get Mohamed Sanu back this week and should tear apart a Patriots defense that will be missing key cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe. And the Falcons clearly have the better defense in this game as they allow just 21.8 points and 312 yards per game, compared to 26.5 points and 441 yards per game by the Patriots.
3G-Sports
Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
Play: Jacksonville -3
Blake Bortles hasn't found himself chucking the ball as errantly as he has in the past - and Jacksonville has been good with their running game. Indianapolis is quite the opposite - they have struggled with moving the ball on the ground as their backs have not been finding holes. Marqise Lee is a solid route running receiver and is picking up a high end 15 YPC. The 3rd ranked pass coverage of Jacksonville is going to be chasing the Colts WRs around the field all game long, which means bad things for Indianapolis. If the 2-4 Colts want to try and get back to being back to at least respectable in the AFC South then they have to learn how to beat teams like Jacksonville. Playing Jacksonville and their nasty defense isn't the best way to change their anemic scoring ways. Jags RB Leonard Fournette is gifted runner and extremely strong - his ability to hit head on is going to give problems to DBs coming to tackle him on the outside. At the very least - for Indianapolis to try to beat Jacksonville on the field their offense has to get much better, this isn't that game. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo
Pick: Tampa Bay +3
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the 2017 season having its season-opener postponed due to Hurricane Irma. It's hardly been smooth sailing since, as the Bucs visit the Buffalo Bills here in Week 7 having lost three of their last four to sit 2-3. The Bills are coming off a Week 6 bye and with a 3-2 overall record, including 2-0 at home. Both teams enter the game with QB issues with Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor struggling and Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered last Sunday.
Tampa Bay: Winston sustained a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder on a sack in last week's loss at Arizona with Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off the bench to rally the Bucs from a huge deficit last week in a 38-33 setback. That said, Tampa Bay fans sure hope Winston will start and he says he will be ready. The Bucs rank second in the league in passing yards (299.2 YPG), leaving them 4th in total yards at 382.0 per game. However, the Bucs are scoring a more modest 23.6 PPG, ranking 13th. A real problem has been Tampa's defense, which ranks 30th in total yards (403.4 YPG) and 24.2 PPG (22nd). The pass D ranks 31st, allowing 301.6 YPG.
Buffalo: Maybe facing Tampa Bay's poor pass D will get Taylor un-tracked. However, Taylor has yet to throw for more than 224 yards in any game this season and posted a career-low yards per attempt in a 20-16 loss last time out at Cincinnati. However, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott told reporters earlier in the week that Taylor retains his full confidence. Taylor is sure not being helped by his running game. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year (164.4 YPG on 5.3 YPC), led by LeSean McCoy 's 1,267 yards (5.4 YPC and 13 rushing TDs). However, McCoy has just 279 yards in 2017 (3.2 YPC), with Buffalo averaging only 106.6 YPG on 3.4 YPC. Defense has kept Buffalo relevant so far, leading the NFL in points allowed at 14.8 PPG.
The pick: I realize that the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in the series but I'm interested in the Bucs on Sunday. The Bills have been one of the early season surprises but their plus-8 TO margin is not likely to continue. Road team pulls the upset, with Winston or Fitzgerald (wouldn't he love to beat his old team?).
Oskeim Sports
Arizona vs Los Angeles
Play: Arizona +3
My math model only favors Los Angeles by 1.4 points in this neutral field affair being played in London (Twickenham Stadium), and the Rams are a woeful 3-10 ATS in their last thirteen games overall and 1-10-1 ATS in their last twelve games versus NFC opposition, including 0-5 ATS against NFC West foes.
The scheduling dynamics are certainly more difficult for Los Angeles, who is traveling for the third time in four weeks and just returned from a cross country journey to Jacksonville. In contrast, the Cardinals have played three of their last four games at home, including last week’s 38-33 upset win over Tampa Bay as 2.5-point underdogs.
Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff has certainly improved from last year’s disastrous campaign, but he is still just 3-10 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 0-8 ATS versus opposition with a secondary that is allowing 5.9 to 7.9 yards per pass attempt on the season. Let’s also note that the second-year signal caller represents an 83.3% ATS losing proposition when laying points in his NFL career.
The Rams are 0.2 yards per play better than average in 2017 (0.4 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.2 yards per play worse than average defensively). Los Angeles’ stop unit is yielding 28.7 points and 417 total yards per game at 6.4 yards per play on the road this season, and I expect the Cardinals’ rejuvenated attack to have success behind Adrian Peterson and Carson Palmer.
In his first game in an Arizona uniform, Peterson gashed Tampa Bay for 134 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. The addition of Peterson has allowed the Cardinals to utilize play-action, resulting in more explosive plays downfield to Larry Fitzgerald. With an improved ground attack behind Peterson, Palmer will see more eight-man fronts which will create one-on-one matchups on the outside.
Arizona is averaging 369 total yards at 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 5.9 yards per play over its last three games, and that prediction should only improve with the arrival of Peterson. In fact, the Rams’ defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average against the run in 2017 (4.8 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average just 4.3 yards per rush play against a mediocre front seven).
From a technical standpoint, the Rams are 0-7 ATS since November 20, 2016 following a game in which they had more punts than third down conversions. Since October 30, 2011, the Cardinals are 6-0 ATS as an underdog off a game in which they allowed 100+ passing yards more than their opponent’s season-average. The Rams are 3-12 ATS in their last fifteen games as favorites in this series and 5-24 ATS as a division favorite.
Finally, Arizona head coach Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS following a SU and ATS win versus foes coming off a SU and ATS win. Grab the points with the Cardinals and invest with confidence.
Harry Bondi
Rams / Cardinals Over 45.5
We cashed a ticket on the over in last week’s Rams/Jacksonville game and today we go to well again with an LA over, this time at Twickenham Stadium in London. The Rams have gone over the total in seven of their last eight games dating back to last season and this year the over has cashed in five out of six Rams games, with those games going over by a combined 73 points. Both of these teams have the kind of defensive stats that lead to high scoring games. The Cardinals are near the bottom of our rankings in pass efficiency defense and sack percentage while the Rams have one of the worst rush defenses in the league, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. It’s a shootout!
Rob Vinciletti
Carolina at Chicago
Play: Carolina -3
The Panthers blew the lead and lost last Thursday at home to Philly. Conference road favorites off a -3 or higher home favored loss on a Thursday are 100% straight up and ats since 1989 and win by an average 15 points per game. The Panthers have the extra rest and are 6-1 ats if the total is 35 to 42 and have covered 5 of 5 in Chicago. With home dogs winless Straight up and ats off a road dog over time win vs an opponent off a home loss losing by an average 31-14 score. We will play on Carolina.
Andy Iskoe
Dallas at San Francisco
Play: Dallas -6
Winless San Francisco lost a fifth straight game by a FG or less last week. At one time trailing 17-0 at Washington, the 49ers rallied to within 26-24 and had the ball with a chance to get in FG position but was unable to make the needed plays in yet another competitive loss. Dallas is off its Bye that followed back to back home losses to the Rams and Packers. The status of RB Ezekiel Elliot is again in limbo but Dallas’ strong offensive line mitigates most concerns should Elliot be forced to sit this game out. Given their play over the past month a case can certainly be made for again taking the points with the hosts. But the Bye week will have seen the Cowboys make tweaks to what has been a leaky defense while also fine tuning the offense. At some point frustration has to set in with the 49ers and all those close losses but with Dallas needing to get back on track with a win they should play a fully focused game for a full 60 minutes.
Bob Balfe
Vikings -4
Joe Flacco has looked awful this year, but much of it has to with injury. The Ravens don’t have an offensive line that can win at this level on the road. The Ravens lost a guy to retirement right before the season and two starters are on IR. This team doesn’t have that many quality backs and the running game will suffer with Terrance West out of this game. At receiver the Ravens are thin with Wallace and Maclin still not 100 percent. This is an offense that is going to struggle against a great front seven and against great shutdown corners. Baltimore has been vulnerable this year against the run so I do expect Minnesota to move the ball. The Vikings have a few good running backs and Case Keenum has filled in very nicely at quarterback. Baltimore’s offense puts them in a position to turn the ball over which will lead to Minnesota points.
Tommy Brunson
If you are looking for a high-scoring game this Week Seven of the season, you better look elsewhere, because Baltimore-Minnesota could very well wind up being the lowest-scoring game on this Sunday schedule.
It is true that the Ravens have played their last pair of games Over the posted price, but they have also seen their offense get held to 9 and 7 points in the 2 games prior to their last pair of Overs played, and they are up against a Minnesota team that has held each of their last 4 foes to no more than 17-points, while playing Under the total in each of their last 3, and 4 of their last 5 since their opening night Over against New Orleans.
Each of Minnesota's last 5 October games has played Under the total, while Baltimore is 3-0-1 Under the total their last 4 Week 7 contests.
Defensive battle as US Bank Stadium, Ravens-Vikings Under the total.
3* BALTIMORE-MINNESOTA UNDER