Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 23rd, 2016

Sleepyj

Vikings / Eagles Under 40

Hit the snooze button on this game...Both of these teams will struggle to score here..Philly defense let up bigtime last week after they got smacked around by Washington...Don't be shocked if the Eagles come into this one with some frustration to burn off...Eagles got flagged 13 times last game and that won't sit well with this defense....Eagles at home won't get crushed with flags and they know Bradford well...Look for Philly to increase the pressure here on Bradford...He will need to make his throws much faster and he will need to hit the other guys besides Diggs....Vikings rush offense isn't good at all as they rank near last in the league...Eagles will come to play on the defensive side of the ball, but the the Vikings will get a few scores....Eagles on offense won't have much room to breathe...If Philly plans to stay in this game they need the defense and special teams to help them out here...The WR core is weak at best and getting separation against the Viking LB's and secondary is going to be a real chore...Philly doesn't have a good enough o-line right now to push the pile or create ample amount of time for Wentz to sit in the pocket...You will see a ton of runs and safe throws from Wentz..Lot's of RB screens and bubble screens to the WR....I think we will see a large amount of plays that start end up behind the line of scrimmage in this game...40 is low, but I'll be surprised if this game even hits 38....I got this one like 13-9 final..Ugly game with little scoring at all....Vikings will be well rested and the Eagles just had a bye two weeks ago...Both teams on defense will be ready for this one...Philly needs this game as they have to deal with murderers row on the schedule..I think the Eagles fall flat and the early season hype was a false flag...Philly could lose the next 5 games in a row..Be cautious, you wont get much value with the Eagles hype...Under is the call

Strike Point Sports

Los Angeles (+2.5) over New York Giants

This game is an early kick off due to playing in London. Don't buy in to the fact that the Giants beat Baltimore. This team is just not clicking the way they should be. Do they have the offensive talent? Yes. Do they have the defensive talent? Yes. And yet they just don't look right. Even with Eli Manning throwing for a huge game versus Baltimore, things just were off. The Rams are the type of team that can play a boring brand of football in front of the fans overseas, and win this game outright, even as a small dog. The Giants could absolutely put it all together and be a formidable opponent later in the season, but this random game in London is not the time they put it together. The Rams have the ability to control the clock and keep the ball away from Eli and company. Look for this to be a low scoring game and for the Rams to win with a late field goal 20-17.

Art Aronson

Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Play: Seahawks +2

Reasoning: We had a play on Seattle last weekend and the Seahawks would let a big lead slip away, only to then somehow find a way to win the game 26-24 SU, unable to cover the six points.

After losing three of its first four, the Cardinals have bounced back with consecutive victories. Last week they handled the toothless Jets 28-3 with Carson Palmer leading the way after he was sidelined with an injury for two weeks.

We think that ‘Hawks QB Russell Wilson is almost back to 100% health, which is going to be trouble for the Cardinals today. Note that Seattle is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 agains the division, while Arizona is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records.

We like the Seahawks in this matchup, despite Palmer being back, we think Arizona still has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, a unit which led the league in scoring last year. Consider a second look at the visitors in this one.

Power Sports

New Orleans vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

Fresh off upsetting the Panthers at home, 41-38 as 3-point underdogs, the Saints now take their act on the road where I feel it is very likely they'll experience far less success. The Chiefs, now 4-2 after an impressive win at Oakland (my *10* Game of the Week), appear to be hitting their stride w/ key players returning.

New Orleans' defense remains very, very bad. They are one of only four teams currently allowing 400 YPG. Kansas City just got done beating one of the other three (Oakland) and did so handily by a score of 26-10. Key was the running game, which rang up 183 yards thanks to a career day from Spencer Ware and the return of Jamaal Charles. Alex Smith should have one of his better outings of the season here considering the Saints' D has already given up four 300+ yard passing days. Save for a shockingly low-scoring loss to the Giants (16-13), the Saints have allowed at least 34 points in all other game.

While the Saints defense should continue its ineptitude, Drew Brees and the offense are likely to experience massive regression from last week. This will be their third venture outdoors this season. The first, as referenced above, saw them only score 13 pts in a loss to the Giants. Then, they were VERY fortunate to beat San Diego 35-34 thanks to the usual late game ineptitude from Mike McCoy's bunch. Back to back upsets (by a total of four points!) haven't changed my thinking that New Orleans is not going to be a very good team this season.

Dennis Macklin

Giants vs. Rams
Play:Giants -2½

This is the Rams fourth roadie in five weeks and despite leaving Detroit to go directly to London, the travel has to take a toll. Los Angeles took a couple of key hits to it's secondary and will be shorthanded against a jump-started Eli Manning (403, 3 TDs vs Ravens last week) and an Odell Beckham (222 yards, 2 TDs LW) that has seemingly flicked the switch. The Lions offense which is similar to the Giants in many respects cashed for 8.3 yards per pass attempt and scored four touchdowns on seven drives. Keenum had nice game in last but won't be able to trade here. NFC West teams in non-division games are 4-8 ATS while NFC East teams are 10-4 ATS in same spot. Urgency with Giants who need to keep pace in ultra-tough division. Giants 27-17.

Mike Lundin

Vikings vs. Eagles
Play: Vikings -2½

The Minnesota Vikings are on an insane 19-3 ATS run, and they're the only team in the league with a perfect straight up and ATS record this season. They'll visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon, and this looks like a good spot to give the points to back the visitors.

Philly has been road favorites in each of its last two games, at Detroit and Washington, and lost both outright. The Eagles were outgained by a total of 254 yards in last week's 27-20 loss to the Redskins while the Vikings were at home practicing during their bye week. Minnesota is such a disciplined and solid team as it is, so one can only imagine how they'll play here coming off an extra week of preparations.

Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been a great find for the Eagles, but now he'll come up against arguably the toughest D in the league. Minny gave up 16 points in its season opening 11-point victory at Tennessee, and it has held each of its four opponents since to even fewer points.

OSKEIM SPORTS

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Play: San Diego Chargers 6.5

San Diego is a profitable 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games, 8-2 ATS in its last ten games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus .501 or greater opposition. The Chargers are also 7-0 ATS following a division game and 6-0 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons, while also posting a money-making 24-11 ATS mark in dome games since 1992.

In contrast, Atlanta is a money-burning 2-15 ATS at home after covering the point spread in three or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. Equally concerning is the fact that the Falcons are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in games after playing the Seahawks, while NFL teams are just 11-24-1 ATS as home favorites after facing Seattle.

Since 2010, NFL teams with less than eight days of rest following a clash with the Seahawks are just 30-55-4 ATS. Even more remarkable is the fact that San Diego is a perfect 16-0 ATS on the road versus teams with more wins on the season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have not covered the Vegas number as a favorite since October 11, 2015, a nine-game span (0-9 ATS)!

MIKE ROSE

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5

The New Orleans Saints will be gunning for their third straight win in Week 7 when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to battle the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs. Andy Reid’s men picked up a huge win in Oakland this past weekend to propel themselves back into the AFC West title race. The Saints have long been a different team away from the dome in open air stadiums. This test could make or break the rest of the season with the Falcons running away from the rest of the NFC South pack.

Brees led the Saints on yet another game winning drive to beat Carolina last week, but that defense continues to be alarming. It owns a sad 12.5 yards per point average (#32) and allows a robust 33.6 points per game. There isn’t an offense in the league that doesn’t lick its chops knowing it gets to take reps against the Saints stop unit.

Going into the bye off a 43-14 shellacking versus Pittsburgh that wasn’t even as close as the final score indicates certainly had the fire in the Chiefs belly burning at an all-time high leading up to last week’s game with Oakland. The Raiders had scored an average of 28.4 points per game leading up to that contest, but KC flexed its defensive muscles and held it to a measly 10 points and 286 total yards of offense while sacking David Carr twice and forcing two turnovers. It was by far the defenses most impressive effort to date.

While getting a near touchdown with NO looks enticing, I implore you to think about what you’re getting yourself into before throwing down your hard earned money. The Saints offense is no doubt electric when in the comforts of its own dome, but that’s far from the case when away from it. It only managed 13 points at the Giants, and though it put 35 on the board against the Chargers, it was only because SD has no clue how to close a game out and turned it over three times. KC has only turned the ball over seven times and has the ground game to salt the game away to snap the Saints road dog win streak at four.

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Oakland Raiders +103

The Oakland Raiders will hit the road in Week 7 with a bad taste in their mouths after incurring a disappointing home defeat to the division rival Chiefs that halted their three game win streak. On the flipside, the Jacksonville Jaguars will return home to the comforts of their own stadium flying high after snagging a victory from the jaws of defeat by outscoring the Bears 17-0 in the fourth quarter to pull out the improbable one-point road win. It will however be a tough chore to log their first home win of the season.

Jacksonville has flat out killed itself with turnovers heading into Week 7. It owns a -4 turnover differential with Bortles’ seven interceptions the main culprit. Oakland doesn’t get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks with it averaging just 1.3 sacks per game, but what it does do is force turnovers having already done so 10 times with five coming by way of the interception. This could be the game Khalil Mack goes off with the Jags giving up an average of 2.8 sacks per game (No. 27). If he or anyone else is able to get consistent pressure on Jacksonville’s quarterback, there’s not a doubt in my mind that Oakland will win the turnover battle, and with it, the game.

The Raiders are much better defensively than they’ve shown, and possess the better balanced offense. On top of that, they’re going to win the turnover battle in this matchup nine out of 10 times and that leads me to believe they’re the side to back in this pick ‘em affair. The ultimate kicker is the fact that Jack Del Rio stands a moneymaking 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS as a road underdog since taking over the reins in Oakland.

DWAYNE BRYANT

Browns at Bengals
Play: Under 45.5

The Browns didn't have many offensive playmakers coming into the season, and the situation is even worse now. They are down to rookie Cody Kessler at quarterback, receiver Josh Gordon is suspended again, and receiver Terrell Pryor is nursing a hamstring injury. Pryor hasn't practiced all week (as of Thursday), and will be iffy should he attempt to play. Cleveland's offensive line is banged up as well. That leaves running back Isaiah Crowell as about their only healthy weapon, and his beat-up o-line will limit his potential in this one. I still think head coach Hue Jackson leans heavily on Crowell here, which keeps the clock ticking.

The Bengals offense hasn't been nearly as good as it once was. A.J. Green is the only real threat outside, allowing teams to stack their coverage his way. QB Andy Dalton has carved up this Browns defense in the past, and I can see him doing it again here. The Bengals beat the Browns 31-10 and 37-3 last season, and I can see a similar outcome in this one. A big late lead means plenty of running the football to shorten the game and preserve the win. But I'm probably being optimistic in expecting Cincinnati to break 30 points the way things have been going for them. They haven't even hit 24 points in any game this season!
These two offenses just have not being scoring many points. Cleveland is averaging 18.8 points per game, while Cincinnati has surprisingly been even worse (18.2 ppg).

Trends also favor a lower scoring game here. AFC North division games with a total higher than 44 have seen the UNDER go 22-8-1, including 8-1 over the last two years. Also, the UNDER has gone 11-1-1 over the last year (5-0 this season) in divisional matchups if the total is less than 48 and both teams went "Over" in their last game.

My projection is for 41 points to be scored in this matchup. So, the Sunday NFL freebie is on the UNDER in Cincinnati.

Randall the Handle

THE BEST

Raiders (4-2) at Jaguars (2-3)

The Jaguars have two wins. One came over in England against defenceless division foe Colts while the other occurred in final seconds against 1-5 Bears. The illusion that Jacksonville has suddenly turned things around has the Jaguars falsely favoured here. Even though it’s a small number, asking the Jags to win versus a superior team is a big demand. Oakland has won and covered all three of its road games. Jacksonville is winless at home. Raiders QB Derek Carr lays over counterpart Blake Bortles. In last week’s win over the less than ferocious Bears, the Jags were held scoreless for three quarters under Bortles before Chicago brain cramped and gave it up. Don’t worry about Oakland’s defensive stats, particularly in the passing category. Raiders’ secondary surrendered big yardage to Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Who wouldn’t? When facing Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco and Alex Smith, Oakland yielded an average of just 239 passing yards. Bortles fits in with the latter group. After last week’s loss, Raiders get back on track here. TAKING: RAIDERS +1

Redskins (4-2) at Lions (3-3)

Have to like Washington’s current mojo after reeling off four straight wins and raising confidence along the way. Much can be attributed to largely unheralded receiving corps that ranks among the league’s best. The trio of DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garçon and Jamison Crowder possess speed, pass-catching ability and agility. That group can easily exploit a leaky Detroit secondary (23rd ranked) that has allowed multiple touchdowns in each game this season. Skins could also get TE Jordan Reed back on the field for this one, spelling even more trouble for Lion defenders. Washington’s defence is improving as well, not permitting a second half touchdown in four weeks. Josh Norman adapting well in new digs and the defensive line has been menacing recently. The NFC East is proving to be a tough group with a 10-4-1 ATS mark versus other divisions this season. And Redskins 11-6 last 17 as underdogs. Also note, Detroit just four covers in previous 14 vs. winning clubs. TAKING: REDSKINS +1

Texans (4-2) at Broncos (4-2)

The Texans will probably win the AFC South. That doesn’t mean they’re any good. They may think they’re good after an improbable win on Sunday night but that was certainly not one to gloat about. If your team has scored just nine points through 57 minutes against Indianapolis’ defective defence, guess what Houston? You’ve got a problem. QB Brock Osweiler remains subpar with poor stats across the board including an equal amount of interceptions (8 ) as touchdown passes. Osweiler would like nothing more than to stick it to John Elway’s club after the Broncos showed little interest in keeping him in Colorado. By the same token, Denver will want to prove its boss right, especially after stinging from a pair of losses before having 10 days to ready for this one. Winless on the road, Houston has been outscored 58-13 in its two away games when shutout 27-0 by Brady-less Patriots then being trounced 31-13 by Denver-like Vikings. Texans are once again in primetime but certainly aren’t ready for it. TAKING: BRONCOS –7½

THE REST

Giants (3-3) vs. Rams (3-3) at London, England

The Rams have flown more miles recently than Hillary and Donald. After numbing loss in Detroit last week, Los Angeles boarded a plane for jolly old England in a less than jolly mood. Now this punchless team will play an early morning game (6:30 back in California) against a Giants team that can exploit L.A.’s vulnerabilities. In dealing with the second most popular Beckham in England this week, the Rams will have their hands full covering Odell as top cover guy Trumaine Johnson remains out. Offensively, the inability to worry opposition with Case Keenum throwing the ball for the Ramshas defences loading the box and halting RB Todd Gurley from doing any damage. While we eat our breakfast, our lean has the G-Men doing the same against this opponent. TAKING: GIANTS –2½

Vikings (5-0) at Eagles (3-2)

If you’ve been riding the Vikings during this incredible 10-0 run against the spread (ATS), including 19-3 previous 22, it almost feels like a betrayal to go against them. However, this might be the point that oddsmakers have wised up and have upped the price knowing that they are a tough fade right now. Even though it’s a rather short price, not sure if Minnesota should be favoured in here. Granted, the Eagles are on a two-game slide but both contests were on the road where they were giving away points. Now they are taking points here at Lincoln Field where Philly is 2-0 and has outscored opponents 63-13 including a 34-3 pasting of the Steelers. QB Sam Bradford knows the Eagles but Philadelphia’s knowledge of him is bigger advantage. TAKING: EAGLES +2½

Saints (2-3) at Chiefs (3-2)

Never know what you get with the Jekyll and Hyde Chiefs having flip flopped wins and losses this season, all by significant margins. Andy Reid’s squad was strong last week, returning from a bye to handle division foe Raiders in a 26-10 triumph. However, those games seem to take something out of the Chiefs as KC has not covered in seven straight following tussles with Oakland. The Saints are capable of scoring points as they sit only behind Atlanta with Drew and Co. averaging 31 points per game. Not sure if Alex Smith’s pop gun offence can keep pace if Kansas City’s defence can’t slow down New Orleans. Saints also best when cast in this role, owning 15-8 ATS mark when taking 6 points or more and 3-0 as the pooch this year alone. TAKING: SAINTS +6½

Browns (0-6) at Bengals (2-4)

Cincinnati won both games in this one-sided battles of Ohio a year ago by a combined 68-13. That was when the Bengals were not in a foul mood. Suddenly in danger of missing the playoffs, expect Cincy to have its ears pinned back for this one. As everyone knows, the Browns are winless. They’ve shown some fight but that charge should extinguish here. This will be Cleveland’s fourth road game in five weeks. It comes after an exhausting attempt to pull even with the Titans in Tennessee last week before coming up short. Not that a 0-6 can afford to do so but the Brownies may take a breather here as they think about hosting the Jets next week, a chance to break their goose egg. Cincinnati should romp. TAKING: BENGALS –9½

Bills (3-2) at Dolphins (2-3)

Give Rex Ryan an opponent with a weak run defence and it is Christmas come early for the jovial coach. That was proven last week when Rex’s Bills steamrolled San Fran’s marshmallow ‘D’ by gaining 312 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. The 49ers rank dead last in the category. The team that sits right in front of them is none other than these Fish. Yes, there is a hesitation in giving away road points within a division. And yes, LeSean McCoy’s injury in practice this week can’t be ignored. But streaking Buffalo has enough depth to wear down the Dolphins as others have. Miami impressive in win over Steelers last week but consecutive quality starts are rare in South Florida these days as Fins seek back-to-back victories for just the third time since 2014. TAKING: BILLS –3

Colts (2-4) at Titans (3-3)

Talk this week has been about how the Titans are improving. Let’s just slow down there, Bucko. Defeating Miami before hanging on for dear life vs. Cleveland aren’t exactly bulletin board victories. Yet, that pair of wins has influenced the price for this one. Pre-season pointspreads had the Colts as a 3½-point pick here. Are the Titans worthy of being six points better on the spread? Most importantly is that they are not only being asked to defeat a club that has defeated them in nine straight but requiring they do so by a margin. That just doesn’t wash. Tennessee is a .500 club that put together consecutive wins for the first time since late 2013. It hasn’t won three straight since the beginning of the 2011 season. Colts aren’t much but they feast on these types. TAKING: COLTS +3

Ravens (3-2) at Jets (2-3)

New York’s early schedule was brutal. After opening with tough loss to the Bengals, the Jets had to travel in four of five weeks. Those trips included a short week to Buffalo (lone win), then to Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Arizona. The only home date had Seattle visiting. The taste in the marketplace’s mouth is not a pleasant one. But that has allowed the Jets to be undervalued here. Losers of three straight downtrodden Ravens arrive here with talent deprived roster and best pass rusher Terrell Suggs now out with bicep injury. Absurd scheduling finds the Jets back on the road for two more after this one, making this their only home game in a five week span. Geno Smith gets the nod for the Jets but he can’t be worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick’s been. TAKING: JETS Even

Chargers (2-4) at Falcons (4-2)

Tempting to side with the Chargers here as Bolts continue to compete and are only losing team in the league with a positive point differential. But coach Dan Quinn has made a huge difference in Atlanta and while off a loss in Seattle, that was a difficult assignment based on scheduling. Birds put forth a spirited effort, one they cannot hang their heads from. Returning home after pair away, there is a legitimate buzz in Atlanta these days. Quinn has toughened them up defensively and the offence is tops in the NFL, averaging 33.2 points and 441.5 yards per game. The Chargers arrive rested after defeating the Broncos a week and a half ago but facing Denver’s stagnant passing game without DB Jason Verrett will be much different than facing Matt Ryan and his arsenal of receivers. TAKING: FALCONS –6½

Buccaneers (2-3) at 49ers (1-5)

Must we? Yes, we must. As bad as the 49ers appear to be, we are still not prepared to spot road points with the immature Bucs. The Niners are saddled with poor quarterbacking, among other things, but Tampa’s Jameis Winston has taken a step back after a strong rookie year. Winston has 75.9 passer rating this season, ranking him 28th of 31 throwers that qualify. Coach Dirk Koetter is crisis managing the young QB, giving his backs more work and hoping the defence can hold up its end of things. Not exactly an ideal situation for spotting these points. While the betting public has little interest in the troubled Niners, their three home games have been respectable after shutting out Rams before losing to NFC talents Dallas and Arizona by respectable scores. Nice spot to grab some value. TAKING: 49ERS +2½

Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (4-2)

No Ben. Brady on a mission. Steelers suddenly a tough sell. But Pittsburgh is a proud organization and they haven’t taken a full touchdown at home since Terry Bradshaw had hair. Landry Jones will sub for Ben Roethlisberger and while it’s a huge step down, the Steelers have been known to step up in these situations having gone 11-9 when No. 7 hasn’t started under centre. Pittsburgh also offers up one of the offensive tandems in the league with RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. New England success speaks for itself as they mow down opponents but Tom Brady is a modest 12-12-1 ATS when favoured by a touchdown or more on the road and the Pats have a game in Buffalo next week, a revenge minded stop after the Bills shutout the Patriots at Gillette. TAKING: PITTSBURGH +7

Seahawks (2-3) at Cardinals (3-2)

On paper, looks like a good Sunday nighter as these two battle for NFC West supremacy. But not sure if we can trust the Cardinals right now. Back to .500 after a disappointing 1-3 start, wins over the lowly 49ers and Jets don’t evoke enough confidence to endorse the Cards against this formidable opponent. Seattle seems to have the blueprint for taking down this rival, winning three of past four meetings. QB Russell Wilson appears to be over his knee issues and he is known to shine in these primetime games with an 11-4 ATS mark. Seattle’s No. 1 ranked run defence is capable of stopping the red-hot David Johnson and that puts extra pressure on QB Carson Palmer, who figures to face a fierce pass rush from Michael Bennett and mates. Dog makes sense here. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +2

Wunderdog

Washington @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -1

Washington, after opening the season 0-2, has caught fire running off four straight wins to get to 4-2. Detroit, with two straight wins, has gotten to .500 at 3-3, and the Lions, with a few breaks, could arguably be 6-0 as they have lost three games by a total of 11 points. The Lions are a sleeper team that many forget started 1-7 a year ago. They finished 6-2, and one of the losses was on an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary toss as time expired, or they would have finished 7-1. Couple that with their 3-3 mark this season, and they would be 10-4 in their last 14. They have the sixth best winning percentage in the entire NFL since November 1 last year and have not lost a game by more than one possession since that time as well. The fact is they are better than they are perceived and hold value at home where they are also 5-2 in their last seven, one of those was a stunning 1-point loss this year. Matthew Stafford has a 106 passer rating through six games and is finally living up to the billing.

DAVE COKIN

CHARGERS AT FALCONS
PLAY: CHARGERS +6.5

This is one of those not so in depth pieces. Sometimes I like to go into fairly minute detail when breaking down a game. But this is simply a case of obtaining what I perceive to be value with the underdog.

I know the Chargers are 2-4. I also know they’re really not very far away from being 6-0. San Diego has had a very bad habit of squandering fourth quarter leads and it has cost them dearly. But when you look at all the numbers, it’s pretty clear this is a team that stacks up favorably with most of the teams in the NFL. Those giveaway games might end up killing them as far as staying in playoff contention is concerned. But it’s also true that because the standings read 2-4, I’m able to get perhaps a point or two more than I ought to be getting with this team. I definitely think that’s the case on Sunday.

The Falcons are off to another fast start at 4-2, but unlike last season when their September was a fluke, this Atlanta version is playing at a high level. I’m not buying their defense particularly. But the Falcons have themselves a dangerous offense, and while it’s often an overlooked aspect of a team, the Atlanta special teams are a plus as well.

I made this number a bit less than where the oddsmakers have it. I’ve got Atlanta winning the game outright, so I can’t necessarily say the value is off the betting line. But I really feel as though this line is going to come down some between now and post time. It’s mostly 6.5 currently, but the indicators I like to focus on suggest to me that this number will drop rather than rise. I would not be shocked at all if we’re looking at 5.5 by game time. I would absolutely be stunned if it goes up to -7.

So you can probably see what I’m doing here. I like the Chargers to compete in what has a good chance to be a tight battle. But I really like the idea that by taking the Chargers now at +6.5, I will very likely be getting the best of it from an odds perspective. That’s good enough for me, so San Diego is the play.

King Creole

Bucs / 49ers Over 45

Guess who's ranked DEAD LAST in the league in rushing defense this season? That would be the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, who just gave up 312 yards on the ground to Buffalo last week, and are allowing 174.3 rushing YPG on the year. NFL teams who give up 140 > rushing yards in a game have now gone 25-9-2 O/U. so far this season. This game features the #27 scoring defense in the league (Bucs are allowing 28.4 ppg) against the #31 scoring defense (Niners are allowing 30.8 ). With a 'short' pointspread (Bucs are -1.5 to -2), that means a SHOOTOUT between bad defenses is likely. No wonder the OU line is so high (45-45.5 pts). Back at home... against this 'D'... and with Colin Kaepernick behind center... the Niners should have no problem getting the 24+ pts that we need to push this one OVER the Total.

The Bye Week aspect of this game played a very large part in my week-long database querying. The visiting Buccaneers come in OFF their Bye... while San Francisco can let it all hang out with a Bye NEXT week.

(1) 16-3-1 O/U since 1993: All NFL home teams BEFORE their Bye Week (NINERS) versus any opponent AFTER their Bye Week (BUCS) when the OU line is in the range of > 39 and pts on the non-division road the previous week (NINERS), when the OU line is 45 > points.

Final score of San Fran's road loss last Sunday was 45 to 16...

7-0 O/U last 4 years: All GAME 10 or less non-division teams off a SU non-division road dog loss of 28 > pts (NINERS).

Rob Vinciletti

Vikings vs. Eagles
Play: Vikings -3

Minnesota the leagues lone undefeated team travels to Philly to take on the Eagles today. Teams that are undefeated in game 5 off a bye week have covered over 90% long term if the total is less than 50 and the opponent which is Philly did not lose by more than 10 points. Minnesota has covered 10 straight as a favorite and The Vikings are 23-0 ATS after any game in which Rhett Ellison did not have a reception over 10 yards the last few years. They have covered 11 of 14 vs winning teams. The Eagles after starting 3-0 have dropped 2 straight and are a dismal 1-10 to the spread as a home dog the last few years. Look for Minnesota to win and cover.