Tony George
Giants vs. Rams
Play: Giants -3
What the heck are the Giants doing laying points to anyone with a good defense. A strong pass rush against Eli Manning is a cause for turnovers gents. Beckham banged up and not 100% and the rams shut down the running game. Not a good combo for NY here.
The Rams have some serious travel involved but Fisher doing a good job of coaching this year, Gurley will run the ball well against the G Men and Keenum at QB efficient enough to keep the defense honest. NY beat a Ravens team last weekend with no defense due to injuries across the board, and I think they are a false favorite. This is also one of my Westgate Super Contest entries this Sunday.
Matt Fargo
Colts vs. Titans
Play: Colts +3
The Colts are coming off another heartbreaking loss as they blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead and eventually lost in overtime. Earlier in the season, they lost on a last second field goal in Detroit, lost in Denver as they were on the march for a game winning touchdown and lost by three points in Jacksonville. Indianapolis should be at least .500 right now but the good news is that it plays in the worst division in football as all four teams are negative in scoring differential so a win here and they keep pace. Tennessee has won two straight games to get back to .500 as the once stagnant offense has shown signs of life. The Titans have put up 58 points over the last two games after scoring just 62 points in their first four games and must be licking their chops in facing the Colts porous defense. While the Indianapolis defense is well below average, the offense can keep pace which it has done all season but just fallen short. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 divisional games. Meanwhile, the Colts are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss which can be attributed to Andrew Luck and his ability to bounce back. We should see it again this Sunday.
Scott Spreitzer
Giants vs. Rams
Play: Over 44½
Eli Manning and OBJ hooked-up eight times for 222 yards and a pair of TDs in last week's 27-23 win over Baltimore. It certainly wasn't a scoring explosion, but I do believe we're going to see plenty of points by both teams in this one. NYG is averaging over 288 yards passing per game, ranked 3rd in the league and will need to continue putting the ball up top with the lack of a reliable ground game. They'll face a defense ranked in the bottom-half of the league against both the pass and run and just got torched by the Matthew Stafford / Golden Tate combo, thanks in part to the lack of a pass rush. The defense is banged-up and I expect more of the same in this one. I also expect the Rams' offense to score their share of points with Case Keenum looking more comfortable in the passing game and Kenny Britt coming off a big game receiving-wise. The total has gone up a tad in a few shops and we believe it's still too short.
Ray Monohan
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Play: Seahawks +1½
The Seahawks head into Arizona on Sunday afternoon the the visitors with the point are worth a move here. Seattle had an impressive win over the Falcons on Sunday as this team is looking like they're back in their stride.
QB Russell Wilson has been banged up all season long, but now he's back to near or even at 100%. Having Wilson at 100% is huge for this team as he can beat the opposition with his feet and arm.
Here against the Cardinals, this is a good matchup for the Seattle defense. Arizona hasn't proven yet they can consistently move the ball and despite putting up points on Monday night, this is a far better defense than the Jets one they saw.
Some trends to note. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7. Seahawks are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
This is a very good matchup for the Hawks and they'll like find a lot of success in slowing down Carson Palmer, who isn't even at 100% himself. He missed multiple practices this week which is never a good recipe for slowing down Seattle.
Sean Murphy
Browns vs. Bengals
Play: Over 44½
This matchup was no contest last year as the Bengals took both meetings by scores of 31-10 and 37-3. Both games stayed 'under' the total as the Browns simply didn't do their part. I believe a different story will unfold in their first matchup this year.
Cleveland finally seems to have its quarterback of the future (and the present) in Cody Kessler. Last week, the Browns fell just short in a 28-26 loss at Tennessee but that was a performance they can build on here.
Of course, the Bengals are mired in a down season, off to a disappointing 2-4 start. Their offense has sputtered lately, but that has been a product of a tough schedule as their last two games have come on the road against Dallas and New England - two of the league's best teams.
Defensively, neither team impresses me all that much. The Bengals certainly have the better unit, but they could be a little worn down following games against the Cowboys and Pats - games in which they were on the field an awful lot.
This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair between two familiar foes. The 'under' has cashed in the last four meetings in this series but that only serves to keep the number in a reasonable range here.
John Ryan
Patriots vs. Steelers
Play: Steelers +7
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 130-80 since 1983 (13-5 last 5 seasons) good for 61.9% winners and made a huge 42 units/unit wagered! Play against road favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. Another proven system supports this play posting a 60-28 since 1983 good for 68.2% winners. Play on underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Patriots are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on grass. Patriots are 2-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 7. Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 7. Steelers are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Fundamental Discussion Points Backup quarterback Landry Jones, who appeared in seven games last season and struggled in a start at Kansas City, is surrounded by plenty of talent -- namely star wideout Antonio Brown and do-everything running back Le'Veon Bell. Brown had a touchdown catch in all three meetings against New England.Bell is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has 20 receptions in his three games since returning from suspension and will likely carry a heavy workload. The Steelers have won seven in a row at home.
Mike Lundin
Vikings vs. Eagles
Play: Vikings -2½
The Minnesota Vikings are on an insane 19-3 ATS run, and they're the only team in the league with a perfect straight up and ATS record this season. They'll visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon, and this looks like a good spot to give the points to back the visitors.
Philly has been road favorites in each of its last two games, at Detroit and Washington, and lost both outright. The Eagles were outgained by a total of 254 yards in last week's 27-20 loss to the Redskins while the Vikings were at home practicing during their bye week. Minnesota is such a disciplined and solid team as it is, so one can only imagine how they'll play here coming off an extra week of preparations.
Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been a great find for the Eagles, but now he'll come up against arguably the toughest D in the league. Minny gave up 16 points in its season opening 11-point victory at Tennessee, and it has held each of its four opponents since to even fewer points.
Bill Biles
Colts vs. Titans
Play: Colts +3
The Colts have dominated this AFC south rivalry for awhile now and I know that the Colts have been struggling this season, but when they play division opponents they play better. Andrew Luck and the Colts will find a way to stay alive in the AFC South with a big win on the road.
Alex Smart
Colts vs. Titans
Play: Colts +3
The Indianapolis Colts come into this game off a bizarre loss last week where they blew a 14 point lead with just a few minutes left and lost 26-23 in OT. Now steaming with anger and ready for redemption Im betting they come out with all guns blazing. Meanwhile, Tennessee is off back to back wins vs Miami and Cleveland, but have had problems dealing with success in the recent past . The L/4 times the Titans grabbed 2 in a row, they are a bankroll draining 0-4SU/ATS L/5 seasons.
Tennessee is 2-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record like the Colts and s 1-11 ATS L/12 versus division opponent
It must also be noted that NFL Road teams like the Colts where the line is +3 to -3 - off a road loss, with a losing record are 24-5 ATS L/29 opportunities.
Brandon Shively
Redskins vs. Lions
Play: Over 49½
The Redskins have been money in the bank when playing the ‘over’. They are 5-1 OVER this year as the lone game that went under was at Baltimore when the wind was blowing hard due to Hurricane Andrew. There is no wind here as this game is played in the dome in Detroit. The Redskins are now 10-1 to the OVER their L11 games dating back to last season. Detroit is comfortable playing their 3rd consecutive home game and this goes well with the over also as they are nice and fresh and haven’t had to worry about the stress of travelling. The Lions went ‘over’ their last 2 home games and I see the trend continuing as the Lions have gotten outgained in those 2 games. That goes well with the Redskins who are coming off a win last week where they rushed for 230 yards against the Eagles. I see the Redskins coming into Detroit and putting up more points to send this game ‘over. The Redskins offense is rolling winners of four straight and we should see a back and forth game with a final score in the 31-27 range.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Rams
Play: Rams +3
Edges - Rams: Head coach Jeff Fisher 10-4 SUATS as a dog versus NFC East opponents, including 3-0 SUATS versus NYG. Giants: 0-5 ATS in NFC West contests when off a non-division game. With Fisher a resounding 102-72-3 ATS as a dog in games throughout his NFL career, and the Giants 1-3-1 ATS in games before their Bye Week, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Rams.
Jimmy Boyd
Jets -2
The perception on the Jets couldn’t be any worse than it is right now. New York has lost 4 straight and were just embarrassed on national TV. Not to mention they are benching Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of Geno Smith. Most just assume this team is throwing in the towel at 1-5, but I don’t think that’s the case.
While it’s improbable they can rebound to make the playoffs, it’s not out of the question. Kansas City won 10 straight after starting 1-5 last year. Houston also made the postseason after starting 1-4. With everyone doubting this team, I think they come out with one of their best games of the season.
In reality, it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise the Jets got off to a bad start. They had an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season. Five of their first six were against playoff teams from last year. The other was on the road against a division rival in Buffalo, who they beat. It’s also worth pointing out just two of those six came at home.
While the Jets have struggled since Week 1, Baltimore opened the season 3-0. That strong start caught the attention of a lot of people. It didn’t last, as they have lost their last 3. In comparison to the Jets. Baltimore has played just one team that made the playoffs last year. That being the Redskins, who went 9-7 without a single win against a team with a winning record.
I don’t think it’s going to get any better for the Ravens going forward. Baltimore has once again been hit hard with the injury bug. They are without their two best pass rushers in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Starting middle linebacker C.J. Mosely is doubtful. They are decimated in the secondary and that's just on defense. Joe Flacco will play through a shoulder injury, but they will be without wide out Steve Smith and one of the best guards in the league in Marshal Yanda. In total, Baltimore is expected to be without 6 starters and several reserves.
Asking this Ravens team to go on the road and win given those injuries is asking a lot. Not to mention against a pissed off Jets team that I believe has something to prove. I also don’t hate the decision to go to Smith at quarterback. Fitzpatrick was hurting this team more than he was helping them. He only had 5 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 6 games. Changing things up can only help matters. It certainly can’t get any worse than what they looked like against the Cardinals.
Jack Jones
Giants/Rams Under 45
The oddsmakers have been forced to set this Giants/Rams total higher than it should be. That's because so many people from overseas are betting the OVER rooting for a high-scoring game. I think they're going to be severely disappointed with the end result.
For starters, these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Giants rank 25th in scoring offense at 19.3 points per game. The Rams rank 28th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game and 31st in total offense at 301.3 yards per game. Neither team has been able to get their running games going, which has really hurt them in the red zone.
The Giants have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this season. They are giving up 21.8 points per game and just 5.1 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the NFL. The Rams still have an elite defense that gives up 22.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. And they are getting healthier along the defensive line now.
Just going off simple math, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER. The Rams and their opponents are combining for 41.1 points per game this season, while the Giants and their opponents are combining for 41.1 points per game as well. I just think that this total has been inflated because both of these teams went over the total last week.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 147-82 (64.2%) since 1983. Both teams combined for more than 50 points with their opponents last week, but that's not going to happen again.
Jeff Fisher is 6-0 to the UNDER in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of the Rams. Fisher is 9-2 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play as the coach of the Rams. The UNDER is 7-0 in Rams last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Dave Price
Cleveland Browns +10.5
The Cincinnati Bengals simply aren't the same team that made it to the playoffs the last 5 seasons. But they are getting treated like it from oddsmakers here as double-digit favorites over the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati is just 2-4 this season with all four losses coming by 8 points or more, and three by 12 points or more. One of its wins came against the Jets 23-22, and the Jets are 1-5 this season. The other was against the Dolphins, who are 2-4 and were banged up in that game. The Browns may be 0-6, but they had a chance to win in four of their games. The only two exceptions were a 19-point loss to the Eagles and a 20-point loss to the Patriots, who are two of the best teams in the NFL. The Bengals don't fit that description. I question the Bengals' mindset right now after playing the Patriots. They were emotionally charged for that game, but may not be nearly as focused against the Browns this week, which would be a hangover effect. The Browns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.
Michael Alexander
Patriots vs. Steelers
Play: Patriots -7
If Ben is a "no-go", then Pitt's chanced are just about zero. That's how dependent this franchise is on him. Just 2 touchdowns in 30-15 loss to Miami. But remember that Steelers are +114½ points ATS at home this year. Also look at Brady's unmatched re-entry, with 782 passing yards with 6 touchdwns and 0 interceptions in 20 and 18 point Patriot blowouts of the Browns and Bengals. So although the home team is 37-16 ATS in New England games, the Pats are 3-0 ATS as a non division road team, by 36½ points. Even if Ben does play he will not be his normal self.