Chip Chirimbes
49ers +115
The Forty-Niners may have caught a break as their NFL worst run defense won't have to face Tampa Bay's top rusher as Doug Martin's hamstring has him sidelined. The Buccaneers will also be without receiver Vincent Jackson while San Francisco will most likely be without running back Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is getting the start once again at QB and is more likely to hurt you with his legs then his arm as he gained a team high 66 yards rushing last week against Buffalo. San Francisco has won four of the last five meetings and are 17-4 all-time in the series.
Mike Anthony
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Buffalo Bills -2.5
Ronald Darby really get to the ball fast. He is everywhere on the field, his 23 tackles are 3rd on the team and he leads the team in passes defended - he has been nothing short of excellent for the Bills. Buffalo has been causing turnovers at a really good clip - with 10 over the last 4 games. Miami is coming in off a ?huge win - and that fact along with the lack of urgency for this game is going to be a problem. Ryan Tannehill just seems to be afraid to make the big plays when the chips are down. Dolphins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East and Buffalo will be loving the nice weather in Miami here on Sunday. BILLS pay the bills for my lately.
SPORTS WAGERS
LOS ANGELES +131 over N.Y. Giants
The NFL makes its way back to jolly ol' England and what a treat the locals are in for this time. “Good” Eli finally showed his face and that just happened to coincide with Odell Beckham Jr. having a career day in a 27-23 win over the Ravens. While they won the game, the Giants are a wretched bunch that is likely more interested in partying it up overseas than playing a football game. A strict disciplinarian, Tom Coughlin is no longer in New York, which leaves New HC Ben McAdoo in charge, a complete moron in his own right. It's only a matter of time until McAdoo joins other great idiots like Jeff Fisher and Andy Reid on everyone’s head scratching list. One good game does not make a team and when we look at the Giants entire body of work this season, it's not pretty. The Giants three victories have been by a combined eight points (!) so they are a fraction away from being an 0-6 team and now they’re favored on a neutral field.
The Rams got a career day from Case Keenum but it wasn't enough, as their highly touted defense couldn't stop Matthew Stafford and the Lions when it counted most. The Rams are a defense first team but we like what we saw from Keenum last week. He had chemistry with Kenny Britt, who is a big target. L.A. still has one of the premier running backs in the game in Todd Gurley. While we are usually reluctant to back Jeff Fisher at any point, at least he's an idiot that's been around the block a few times. That is more than we can say for his counterpart.
The big story this week is about how the Rams must travel much further than the East Coast Giants but the effects of this international travel cannot be handicapped. It's going to affect everyone differently and so we’re siding with what we have observed all season. In that regard, the Rams, despite their flaws, are always focused. They also have the better personnel both on and off the field while the Giants sometimes show up but usually do not. Getting a full 60 minute effort from this Giants’ bunch is asking way too much. New York almost always has something negative about them making headlines. We all know the elephant in the room that the Giants are dealing with this week that at the very least had to take away more of their already lack of attention to detail. Case Keenum now faces a secondary that almost always allows 250+ yards while Eli Manning plays scared and faces a much tougher defense than his counterpart. We have looked this game over and over and we’re not going to over analyze it. To us, the Rams are the superior team in a big way and that’s precisely how we’ll approach it. Keep the points. Rams outright it is.
PHILADELPHIA +141 over Minnesota
The Vikings are coming off their bye but their absence from the Week 7 sked did nothing to silence the hype and Super Bowl talk that surrounds them. This week, Minnesota heads to Philly where much has been made about Sam Bradford's return to the Keystone State. “Revenge” or “extra-jacked” up is an angle we usually look to fade because it's nothing more than a talking point that gets blown out of proportion because it's far more interesting than the usually mundane filler that dominates the NFL's 24-hour news cycle. The Vikings paid a kings’ ransom for Bradford after Teddy Bridgewater went down in training camp. It was a huge price considering the Eagles didn't even want Bradford anymore. Minnesota was criticized harshly at the time but those same talking heads are now back slapping the Purple People Eaters for making a great move. So, allow us to put it all into perspective. Minnesota’s great defense is totally covering up their offensive woes. Minnesota ranks 30th in the league in total offense by averaging just over 300 yards a game. The Vikings’ passing game ranks 25th in the league while their running game is dead last, averaging just 70.6 yards per game. For a supposed Super Bowl contender, this team is incredibly one sided. Ironically, Philly was rolling when they were forced to take a bye before losing in Detroit. This one is eerily similar.
The Eagles were the surprise team of the season after a 3-0 start and it all looked legit too. Philadelphia was playing great defense and putting together some sweet drives on offense before being forced into that aforementioned bye week. No team wants a bye when they’re thriving so perhaps Minnesota’s momentum takes a hit this week. Regardless, the Eagles have now lost two straight since their bye. The entire betting world was on them in Detroit two weeks ago and even more so in Washington last week. Not many are anxious to get behind them for a third straight week, which is exactly when we like to step in.
For all the attention the Vikings defense has received this season, Philly’s “D” is right behind them by ranking 3rd in total defense. The Eagles blew out Cleveland, Chicago and Pittsburgh with a healthy Big Ben at the time. They were extremely unlucky to lose to Detroit and could have easily defeated the ‘Skins last week. There is such a fine line between winning and losing in this league so we could just as easily be discussing a 5-0 Eagles team here instead of the one that has dropped two in a row. We're very happy to back an enthusiastic and talented Eagles’ squad at home getting points against a Vikes team without any explosiveness. After hearing how good they are for the past two weeks while waiting for this game, Minnesota is likely going to find out why a bye can be much more detrimental than beneficial. Eagles outright.
MIAMI +121 over Buffalo
The Bills have dominated this division rivalry with the Dolphins by going 5-1 in their last six meetings. They also won both games last season by a combined score of 74-31. Combine that with the Bills reeling off four straight wins and it's no surprise they've opened as the road chalk here in Miami. The Bills covered easy last week with a 45-16 win over the 49ers but if you watched that game then you saw that San Francisco was in it until Chip Kelly made another bonehead decision and the game turned on a dime. Down just 17-13 midway through the third quarter and facing a fourth and one near midfield, Frisco Chip went for it and missed instead of punting. The crowd went nuts and Buffalo scored a TD five plays later to go up by 11......then 18, then 25. We've watched this Buffalo team long enough to know that as soon as it looks like the Bills are ready to grab the bull by the horns, they get gored. This game looks like the perfect spot to fade them. Three weeks ago the Bills went into New England and shut out the Brady-less Patriots. Guess who's coming to town next week? With a huge home game on deck against New England, this roadie in Miami has trouble written all over it. Furthermore, Buffalo’s results have not been as good as advertised. They caught two teams at precisely the right time (New England and Arizona). They were fortunate to beat the Rams, as they won the turnover battle 3-0 and they were having trouble with the 49ers until that aforementioned fourth and one. The Bills also have losses to the Jets and Ravens.
It might be easy to discredit the Dolphins big win over the Steelers last week, as Pittsburgh played with a banged up Ben Roethlisberger but we are not going to be so quick to make that judgment. While the Fish have been one of the dregs of the league this year and sit at just 2-4, we are encouraged to see that they are finally feeding second year running back Jay Ajayi. For one reason or another, the coaching staff was down on him coming out of camp but was forced to lean on him last week because of injuries. Ajayi responded with a 204 yard rushing game and even if you take away his 62 yard touchdown scamper late, it was a great performance. Ryan Tannehill is a complete enigma, as he can look like a world beater one week and then look lost, as he did against Cinci a couple of weeks ago. With a running game at least potentially opening up the passing game more, we trust Tannehill to be on his game this week. After being beaten again and again by the Bills in recent years, the Dolphins figure to be out for blood this week. We are also very likely to see Tyrod Taylor’s shortcomings again because there are too many of them to keep them masked much longer. Fish outright is our call.
Jim Feist
Vikings at Eagles
Pick: Under
A pair of powerhouse defenses with new QBs clash, one a rookie. Minnesota does not have a great offense, 12-2 under the total against a winning team. RB Jerick McKinnon is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry behind a suspect offensive line. Minnesota is on a 16-6-1 run under the total, and the Under is 31-14 in the Vikings last 45 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Eagles rookie QB Carson gained national attention after Philadelphia won its first three games, only to lose steam as the Eagles yielded 21 first-half points in back-to-back setbacks. Wentz was sacked five times and hit on 11 occasions in a 27-20 loss to Washington and faces the top-ranked defense of Minnesota, which is averaging league bests in sacks per game (3.8 ), points allowed per contest (12.6) and a plus-11 turnover differential. Protecting Wentz became a much harder task after veteran tackle Lane Johnson began serving his 10-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai endured an afternoon to forget in his place, highlighted by allowing two first-half sacks to Redskins linebacker Ryan Kerrigan. And the Under is 11-5 in the Eagles last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
DAVE COKIN
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS
PLAY: 49ERS PK
Two of the league’s lesser lights hook up in San Francisco today as the 49ers play host to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers probably have to qualify as a disappointment to many. While I don’t think most envisioned the Bucs as a contender, forward progress was anticipated and it has yet to show. As for San Francisco, they’ve been about what they were projected to be, and the most interesting thing about this team has been regarding a player who chooses not to stand for the national anthem. When that’s the big story on a team, suffice to say it’s probably not much of a team.
There are a few things I like as far as today’s clash is concerned. I’ve got San Francisco a couple notches ahead of Tampa Bay on my power ratings. That’s not saying a whole lot as these are bottom dwellers to be sure, but the 49ers do have a slight advantage on the numbers. Neither the Bucs nor the 49ers are especially good at anything. Both teams are toward the bottom of the efficiency rankings on both offense and defense, and even on special teams to boot.
If you’re into line indicators, here’s some food for thought. The offshore stores I categorize as the sharpest have this game San Francisco -1 as I’m writing this. It’s also a game where the sharp money certainly appears to have had an impact on the number. This game opened Bucs -2 last Sunday. Yet despite the fact Tampa Bay is getting the majority of the tickets at the shops I am able to track, the line has swung significantly to the point that the 49ers are now the mini-favorite, or pick ’em at the very least.
From a value standpoint, the best numbers have come and gone, and getting the optimum price is of great importance to me in football. In fact, at times I’m downright obsessive about it, although I don’t classify that as a bad trait. So, I ended up leaving this game off the personal service ticket on Sunday but it’s certainly a decent lean at worst. I’ll side with the 49ers as today’s free play.
Ben Burns
Winnipeg -121
The Oilers have played well in their new rink this season and have already come through for me a couple of times. This will be their first game outside of the province of Alberta though and they'll be facing a well-rested Winnipeg team which has also played well at home. The Jets have won two of three games here, rallying for a potentially momentum-building win last time out. I successfully backed them in both those victories and I expect their best effort again this afternoon. With the Oilers just 9-19 their last 28, off a win by two or more goals, take a look at the home team.
Bruce Marshall
Bengals -10
Fortunately for Cincy, recent losses by other AFC North contenders (and Ben Roethlisberger's injury) have kept the Bengals within reach of the division leaders. But at 2-4, it's time for Andy Dalton & Co. to shift gears if they're serious about keeping the team's 5-year playoff streak alive. And, after facing a collection of rough customers the past month, Cincy will feel like it's on a date with Scarlett Johansson at the sight of the winless Brownies, who were outscored a combined 68-13 in two series losses last season. "Totals" alert-Hue Jackson's teams at Oakland (in 2011) and TY at Cleveland now "over" 10-3 last 13 games.
Spartan
Saints +6.5
Just too many points here in my opinion guys. Right now I see the Saints are commonly getting 6.5 points. I expect this one to be competitive to the very end and we will be glad to have the points in our pockets. This Saints offense is just too potent to be laying that kind of number. The fact is Payton's club has scored 32 points or more in all but one game thus far this season. I think Brees can do some work against that Chiefs secondary. Plus you have to remember the Chiefs are off a pretty big, emotional win over a bitter divisional rival. Last week I was talking about Andy Reid and his remarkable track record with games coming off the bye week. Well, the trend held up. But now on the flip side the fact is also that Reid has not had success in the games after the first one back., The Saints have been a profitable play on the road having covered the number now in their last four road games. It's also a fact that Brees has excelled in this role. When Brees has gone into a game where the Saints are dogs of 6 or more points he has led to a cover in six of the last seven in that spot. I liked the Saints and the points even before digging into it, I am not crazy about trends all the time but that did prop up confidence in the play. No need for paralysis of analysis here.
Matt Fargo
Colts vs. Titans
Play: Colts +3
The Colts are coming off another heartbreaking loss as they blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead and eventually lost in overtime. Earlier in the season, they lost on a last second field goal in Detroit, lost in Denver as they were on the march for a game winning touchdown and lost by three points in Jacksonville. Indianapolis should be at least .500 right now but the good news is that it plays in the worst division in football as all four teams are negative in scoring differential so a win here and they keep pace. Tennessee has won two straight games to get back to .500 as the once stagnant offense has shown signs of life. The Titans have put up 58 points over the last two games after scoring just 62 points in their first four games and must be licking their chops in facing the Colts porous defense. While the Indianapolis defense is well below average, the offense can keep pace which it has done all season but just fallen short. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 divisional games. Meanwhile, the Colts are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss which can be attributed to Andrew Luck and his ability to bounce back. We should see it again this Sunday.
Bob Harvey
Edmonton at Winnipeg
Play: Over 5½
The defensively challenged Winnipeg Jets, who are allowing four goals a game, hope to tighten things up when they host the Edmonton Oilers in the Heritage Classic at Investors Group Field in the NHL’s first outdoor contest of the season.
Both teams are coming off victories. Rookie Patrik Laine sparked the Jets’ 5-4 overtime victory Wednesday over Toronto with his first career hat trick, capped by the game-winner with 2:20 left in extra time.
Edmonton (4-1) won its past two games and four of five to open the season, fueled by Connor McDavid who has eight points (four goals, four assists) while goalie Cam Talbot led the NHL with four victories through Friday. Talbot rebounded from a rough showing Monday against Buffalo to allow three goals on 68 shots in victories over Carolina and St. Louis.
The Jets (2-2-0) first two home victories have been similar in nature. Fall behind early, rally to tie the game late, and then skate to victory in overtime. While Laine has grabbed the majority of the headlines, Mark Scheifele owns five points in his past three games. Connor Hellebuyck (3.45 goals against average) and Michael Hutchinson (4.02 GAG) have split the opening four games in goal and each has struggled at times.
Edmonton took last year’s season series going 2-0-1 against the Jets last season, losing in a shootout and allowing just three goals total.
Next to the box named improvements needed, the Jets have checked penalty killing. They were next to last one year ago and enter today’s game having already allowed five power-play goals.
The Jets are 3-1 to the OVER this season while the Oilers are 3-2 to the high side. Edmonton is also 5-0 to the OVER in its last five road games.
Teddy Covers
Bucs vs. 49ers
Play: Bucs +1
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against San Francisco in any game that they’ll need to win to cover the pointspread. Make no mistake about it – Chip Kelly’s team is a dumpster fire right now, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The results don’t lie. Since losing their best defender, pro bowl LB Navarro Bowman , to a season ending injury, the Niners have allowed 102 points in less than eleven quarters; gashed by Dallas, Arizona and Buffalo in successive weeks.
Coach Kelly made the ‘desperation’ switch to Colin Kaepernick as the starting QB last week. It didn’t work. Kaepernick looked like he did before his benching last year, unable to generate any sort of offensive rhythm with his extremely limited receiving corps. And with a subpar offensive line protecting him, the Niners offense is fundamentally flawed, regardless of which QB lines up behind center. In my opinion, San Fran can’t be pick ‘em or favored over anyone except Cleveland!
The Bucs have only played one good game all year. Back in Week 1, when Dirk Koetter had extra time to prepare, Tampa went to Atlanta and controlled the game. Off their bye week, as healthy as they’ve been all year, Koetter’s had extra time to prepare for this game as well. And with Tampa having saved their season with that win over Carolina on Monday Night before the bye, another victory here and they’re right back in the mix of the playoff race. I expect them to get that win, with relative ease.
Scott Rickenbach
Giants vs. Rams
Play: Rams +3
The Giants are off of a tight win as they rallied against the Ravens. The Rams are off of a tight loss at Detroit by 3 points as they fell just short despite a 387 to 348 yardage edge. The 387 yards was the top mark for the Rams this season and it shows that QB Keenum and company are making progress on that side of the ball. As for the other side of the ball, the Rams haven't been as strong as they were last season but they have been respectable against the pass. That is significant because the Giants are one of the league's worst rushing offenses so the New York strength on offense will play right into the strength of the Rams defense. Los Angeles has been solid in the takeaway department this season but has not gotten the job done there the past two weeks. The Giants turned the ball over 3 times last week and were fortunate to get the win over Baltimore. New York has now turned the ball over 3 times in 3 of their last 5 games. Look for turnovers to be a potential issue here for the Giants as their defense ranks at the bottom of the league for takeaways. Off an emotional win last week and with their bye week on deck, the Giants could have trouble in this scheduling "flat spot" in London. Note that the Giants are on an 0-5 ATS run when they are favored before a bye week.
Frank Jordan
New York vs. Los Angeles
Play: New York -2.5
The Giants and Rams square off in London today with both teams coming in at 3-3 and in need of the win. The Rams 3-3 has them in second place in the NFC West and a game and a half back of Seattle. The Giants 3-3 has them in last place in the NFC East just two games back of Dallas for first place. The Giants started off well winning their first two games before spiraling down blowing a game to Washington and losing at Minnesota and Green Bay before bouncing back with a win over Baltimore last week. The Rams have been inconsistent this year as well getting blown out 28-0 on Monday Night Football week one, then going on a three game winning streak, before dropping the last two to Buffalo and Detroit, and against Detroit they had leads throughout before giving up the game winner with 1:29 left on the clock. Look for a good back and forth battle between two hungry teams, but it will be the Giants who are hungrier as they win 27-20 behind a strong game from Eli Manning who is 4-0 in four games against the Rams with 12 touchdowns and just one interception.
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The 2-3 Tampa Bay Bucs visit San Francisco to take on the 49ers. The Bucs opened the 2016 season by upsetting the Falcons 31-24 in Atlanta but then lost three in a row, before winning 17-14 at Carolina in a Monday Night Week 5 game. The Bucs are off a bye, something the 49ers could use. San Francisco opened its season with a 28-0 Monday Night win back in Week 1 but the team has since lost five in a row, getting outscored 185-99.
Tampa Bay: The Bucs are struggling with injuries on both sides of the ball. RB Doug Martin, coming off a 2015 season in which he ran for 1,02 yards (4.9 YPC), has not played since he injured his hamstring in Week 2 (he has 85 yards on 3.4 YPC). He won’t play here, nor will WR Vincent Jackson, who was placed on injured reserve after suffering an ACL injury in that Monday win at Carolina. Moving to the defense, DT Gerald McCoy (calf) has been practicing on a limited basis and could return to the lineup but DE Robert Ayers (high ankle sprain) and DT Clinton McDonald (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and appear unlikely for Sunday. That’s hardly good news for a defense allowing 28.4 PPG (27th).
San Francisco: Controversial QB Colin Kaepernick got his first start of the season last Sunday and while he led the team with 66 rushing yards, he completed just 13 of 29 passes for 187 yards. However, it’s hard to put much of the blame on him, as the 49ers allowed 312 rushing yards in a 45-16 blowout loss at Buffalo and on the year have allowed league-worst 174.3 YPG (5.0 YPC). The defense is allowing 30.8 PPG (31st) on the season but remember, that’s after a Week 1 shutout win. As for the offense, pre- and post-Kaepernick, the offense ranks 32nd overall in total yards (292.8 YPG) and 32nd in passing yards (169.5 YPG).
The pick: Tampa Bay will be without Martin but Jacquizz Rodgers ran for 101 yards in the Monday Night win and against the porous Buffalo rush D (see above), he should do well again. Jameis Winston iis struggling some in his second season but has all the tools to ‘light up’ a very poor and far from 100 percent healthy, San Francisco D. It’s hard to to not believe that Colin Kaepernick‘s and head coach Chip Kelly’s time in the Bay Area are close to being over. If the Bucs can win in Atlanta and Carolina, why not in San Francisco?
Dr Bob
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Saints have the 5th most efficient offense as measured by a 50.4% success rate. And Drew Brees has been even better throwing the ball, with a 52.4% success rate, good for 3rd in the league. The Chiefs have been porous on defense giving up 5.7 yards per play and a 47% success rate on Defense which projects to a defense that would allow 24 points per game vs. the 20 they have allowed. And while everyone can seemingly move the ball on the Saints, the 5.3 YPP Alex Smith’s offense has been averaging will make it difficult to cover the TD. The advanced stats model sees the value on the road dog, so Saints (+6) and OVER (50) are a Strong Opinions.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
The Bills sport the league’s top rushing attack as measured by adjusted YPR and success rate. More impressive is the fact that the Bills have run the ball 50% of the time, so they have been successful, even with opposing defenses knowing what is coming. Look for them to grind down a Dolphins D which is allowing 4.6 YPR (29th). Offensively for the Dolphins, quarterback Ryan Tannehill has continued to be erratic, throwing more INTs (7) than TDs (6). Defensively the Bills have surrendered 17.2 points per game which is good for 7th in the league on an adjusted basis. Shady has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest but our model still sees Buffalo covering with a lean to the Bills (-3). No opinion on Total.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans have an underrated defense that is sacking the QB at an 8.7% rate, however, they are susceptible to the big plays as teams take 21% of their shots down the field against the Tennessee defense. Andrew Luck is no stranger to being hit and hurried as he has been sacked at an 8.8% rate, and despite that still averages 6.1 NYPP with plenty of deep shots taken and completed. The Titans will continue to run the ball as they are averaging 4.7 YPR with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry bulldozing their way to a 51% success rate. Look for this to slow the game down in a Total that is set too high. Both the Titans and Colts have played close games all year and our advanced stats model sees value with the dog, so Colts (+3) is a Strong Opinion. UNDER (48) is also a Strong Opinion.
San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta just finished a road trip in which they faced two of the top secondaries in the league, in the Seahawks and Broncos, and put up 24 and 23 points. The Dirty Birds now travel home to face a Chargers defense that is playing well, by their historically low standards, but still only ranking 16th in NYPP and 18th in passing success rate allowed. Look for the Falcons who are averaging a league-best 8.8 NYPP to put up points against the Bolts. While Rivers is having another fantastic season, putting up 7.4 NYPP with an above 50% passing success rate, the poor rush offense and rush defense have caused leads to evaporate this year en route to a 2-4 start. The advanced stats model sees a shootout and the Falcons covering the chalk, so Falcons (-6.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to the OVER (53).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
The Bucs are coming off a bye and look to fix a team that has the 26th ranked offense in the NFL averaging a measly 4.6 YPP and 18.8 points per game. Defensively they have been just as terrible, giving up 5.9 YPP, ranking 24th in the league. San Francisco has lost five straight and Colin Kaepernick did not look like the answer last week against a soft Bills secondary, averaging only 5.2 NYPP. However, the Niners defense is better than the 31 points per game they are allowing, giving up only 5.4 Yards per play. The advanced stats model sees inefficient offenses as the value is with SF and the Under, so both Niners (+2.5) and UNDER (46.5) are leans.