Harry Bondi
Seattle / Arizona Over 43
Ever since QB Russell Wilson’s ankle healed three weeks ago, the Seahawks have averaged 30 points per game and have gone over in three straight weeks and we’ll call for a fourth-straight here on Sunday Night Football. Ten of the last 12 meetings between these two teams on this field have gone over the total with an average of 47 points per game and if you take away the Rams game in which QB Carson Palmer was injured, the Cardinals are scoring 30 points per game at home. This total is way too low.
David Banks
Seattle @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona -1
Both the Seahawks and the Cardinals started the 2016 season slowly. Seattle leads the AFC West with a 4-1 record after beginning the season by scoring just 15 points in two games. Since, Seattle, led by QB Russell Wilson, has averaged 30 points per game. Like Arizona though, Seattle doesn’t have very many impressive wins. They defeated a very good Falcons team last week, 26-24, for their first win over a team with a winning record.
The Cardinals, the defending AFC West champ, surprisingly started the season 1-3, but after two straight wins head coach Bruce Arians has the team headed in the right direction. Those two wins were over San Francisco and the New York Jets who are a combined 2-10. Still, Arizona is getting the most from RB David Johnson who has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games and is third in the NFL with 568 yards for the season.
The Seahawks are once again one of the NFL’s best defensive teams. Seattle leads the league in total defense giving up just 283.6 yards of total offense per game. They also give up just 15.6 points per game, which is third in the NFL. If history plays any role on Sunday night, don’t forget that the last three times that these two teams have met at the University of Phoenix Stadium Seattle won them all. The Seahawks have won big the last two times winning 36-6 this past January and 35-6 in December of 2014.
Vegas Butcher
MIN @ PHI +3
For the last two weeks the Eagles have been overrated on the road, lined as -3 road favorites @ DET and @ WAS. They proceeded to lose both games. Now I’m wondering if the market has swung the other way, under-valuing Philly and over-valuing the Vikings. Minnesota is getting over 75% of all the bets, and the line moved to -3 MIN now. This is a good team but so is Philly. Remember when the Eagles walloped Pittsburgh 34-3 at home? The storyline here is that Sam Bradford is returning to Philly. But is that an advantage for him or for his former team? Eagles rank 5th in pass-D, 5th in ASR%, are getting Leodis McKelvin back, their best corner (missed last 2 games). I expect a good football game here but points should be at a premium. My model has this one at -2.5 PHI, so there’s a ton of value on the home team at this number. Lean: PHI +3
NO @ KC -6
The Saints are going on the road to face a KC defense that held an explosive Oakland offense to 10 points in Oakland. Can the Chiefs do the same at home against the Saints? They very well could. Drew Brees isn’t as efficient outdoors as he is in the dome, and facing this 6th ranked Chiefs pass-D won’t be easy. The biggest issue is that NO might not have the ball that much, as I expect KC to employ a run-heavy approach once again against this 30th ranked NO run-D. The off-season line on this game was -8 Chiefs, so KC could be under-valued in this one. Lean: KC -6
WAS @ DET -1
Matchup-wise, you have to like Washington in this game. Their weakness defensive is stopping the run (#31), but they face a DET team that can’t run the ball. With Riddick set to miss another game, this Lions run-game will feature a bunch of plodders with zero big-play ability. Washington’s 11th ranked pass-D should have success against a one-dimensional Lions attack. On the other side, it’s hard to see this 32nd ranked Lions D stopping Washington on offense. Even without Reed, Washington has plenty of weapons at its disposal. Last week Detroit gave up 28 points to the Rams! Expect Washington in the 30’s in this one. Lean: WAS +1
CLE @ CIN -10.5
It’s tempting to back Cleveland in Hue Jackson’s return to Cincy for the first time, but I just have a hard time seeing how this Browns team competes here. The number of injuries is mounting for this team: Haden out, Poyer (starting FS) out, and Pryor, their only real weapon on offense, barely practiced this week. Cincy is 2-4 but lost to top teams in the league. This is a critical game for them if they want to catch Pittsburgh in the standings, something they could very well do with Roethlisberger out for a while. Value is on the Browns at this line though. Lean: CLE +10.5
BUF @ MIA +2.5
An interesting spot for Buffalo, who are sporting a 4-game winning streak, playing their 3rd road-game in a 4-week span, and then have a home date with the Patriots next week. Can we call this a ‘sandwich’ situation? Miami showed up last week, and they played really well even before Roethlisberger got hurt. Of course their stud safety Reshad Jones got hurt and is now out for the year. Bills’ passing game isn’t as big of a threat but this is still an efficient offense. Of course McCoy is very likely to miss the game, which is a huge factor here. Gilllislee is a solid backup, but he’s no McCoy. We’ll see how the Bills adjust, most likely unleashing Taylor a bit more. Another crucial matchup to consider is Miami’s 32nd ranked O-line vs Buffalo’s #1 ranked pass-rush. The defense could very well keep Buffalo in the game. If not for the tough scheduling spot with a ‘look-ahead’, I’d most likely play the Bills here, even without their best offensive weapon, as long as the spread is below 3. At 3, you have to like the home team. Lean: BUF -2.5 or MIA +3
OAK @ JAX -1
The dreaded “East Coast 1 PM EST” game for a West Coast team like Oakland here. Jacksonville has a top-10 pass-defense and a decent pass-rush (#12) so this won’t be an easy game for the Raiders offense. To make matters more difficult is the fact that this Oakland D can’t stop anyone, ranking 29th overall on the season. Jags are learning how to win close games, and being at home, I like their chances here. Lean: JAX -1
IND @ TEN -3
The Titans are quietly playing like an above-average NFL team. They rank 10th offensively and 9th defensively on the season. Their Achilles-heel is the special-teams which rank 32nd. Interestingly, Colts rank #1 on special teams. Could that be a factor that keeps this game close? Possibly, as neither team is very reliable overall, showing lots of volatility in their performance week-to-week. In the off-season this line was -3.5 Colts, so this tells you how far Indy has fallen lately. Still, if this one gets to 3.5 (and the juice certainly indicates it’s moving there), Indy is worth a strong look. Lean: IND +3.5 or better
BAL @ NYJ -2
Wowza, the Jets are favorites here? They’re on short-week and have made a QB change. Of course there’s no one worse than Fitzpatrick in the league, except maybe Flacco. His -21% DVOA ranks 27th and his 5.4 PY/A is 41st. That’s as bad as it gets. With NY going from Fitzpatrick to Geno Smith, that should be a ‘positive’ for them. But how much of an improvement is it really? Remember, there’s a reason Geno Smith is a backup. In any case, as for Baltimore they have a ton of key players out:
Steve Smith, Elvis Dumervil, CJ Mosley, Kendrick Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Marshall Yanda. That’s a ton of talent gone, not to mention the fact that Flacco is banged up as well (remember, he’s also really bad this year!). Maybe this is the reason the line is moving in NY’s favor. Lean: NYJ -2
TB @ SF -1
When San Fran was +2, I was thinking of backing them. But since the line moved by 3 full points, Bucs are worth a look as an underdog. Remember, this team beat ATL and CAR, and played the Rams close. They can play with ‘weaker’ teams in this league (ATL game was 1st of the season so I’ll assume that win was a bit of a fluke). Of course Tampa got blown out by ARZ and DEN, so clearly they’re not ready to step up just yet. Well, San Fran is as bad of a team as it gets. They’re without Hyde, who is their best offensive weapon. Let’s see if Kaepernick can win a game on his own. He hasn’t been able to do it in a long while. Lean: TB +1
NE @ PIT +7
No Roethlisberger in this one but that’s not the only loss. Pittsburgh is without Heyward (their best defender?), Gilbert (their best O-lineman?), and Wheaton (their #2 WR). Facing a juggernaut like the Pats won’t be easy in this spot. Lean: NE -7
SEA @ ARZ -1
Arizona is coming into this one with a hobbled Carson Palmer and without John Brown, their deep threat at WR. In addition, another burner, Jaron Brown, is very questionable as well. This tells me that the Cardinals could have a very tough time moving the ball offensively. On the other side, Russell Wilson is still not as mobile as he is when fully healthy, and of course his O-line is very questionable at best. Going up against a top-10 Arizona pass-rush won’t be easy. Two defenses that rank in the top-3 overall (and top-3 in pass-D) and both offenses that are mediocre so far this season. I’m not sure why this total is so high. My model has it at 40 total points. Lean: UNDER 44
Chip Chirimbes
49ers +115
The Forty-Niners may have caught a break as their NFL worst run defense won't have to face Tampa Bay's top rusher as Doug Martin's hamstring has him sidelined. The Buccaneers will also be without receiver Vincent Jackson while San Francisco will most likely be without running back Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is getting the start once again at QB and is more likely to hurt you with his legs then his arm as he gained a team high 66 yards rushing last week against Buffalo. San Francisco has won four of the last five meetings and are 17-4 all-time in the series.
Michael Alexander
Patriots vs. Steelers
Play: Patriots -7
If Ben is a "no-go", then Pitt's chanced are just about zero. That's how dependent this franchise is on him. Just 2 touchdowns in 30-15 loss to Miami. But remember that Steelers are +114½ points ATS at home this year. Also look at Brady's unmatched re-entry, with 782 passing yards with 6 touchdwns and 0 interceptions in 20 and 18 point Patriot blowouts of the Browns and Bengals. So although the home team is 37-16 ATS in New England games, the Pats are 3-0 ATS as a non division road team, by 36½ points. Even if Ben does play he will not be his normal self.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +104 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The host in this event or spectacle does not have an advantage of any kind because of all the distractions leading up to the event. Friends and family all want “good” tickets. The media surrounds the team for two days leading up to the event. There are other obligations as well. Now the Jets, a team that remains an enigma because of their lack of wins with so many talented players, is being asked to perform at a high level against a team with a new found confidence. Winnipeg lacks discipline, strong goaltending and mental toughness. The Jets have also allowed four goals or more in each of their four games this season. Both of their wins have come in extra time so we could easily be talking about a 0-4 team here. In three of four games, Winnipeg has been outshot, which includes allowing the Maple Leafs to record 40.
Connor McDavid does more for the Oilers than produce. He’s one of those “it” guys that cannot stand losing and will not accept losing. His attitude, leadership and refusal to lose are all contagious. The Oilers have won four of five. After a loss to Buffalo that may have previously led to three or four more defeats in succession, the Oilers dug down deep and reeled off two straight victories while allowing just three goals against. The Oilers have a big edge in net here with Cam Talbot over anyone that the Jets use. In three career games against Winnipeg, Talbot has a 2-1-0 record, with a 2.01 goals against average and a .947 save percentage. The Oilers continue to lead the NHL in goals per game. Through five games, 19 Oilers have already earned their first point of the season. The outcome of games are usually decided by the following: goaltending, who wants it more, and talent. Give the Oilers a big edge in the first two categories and probably the third one too.
Big Al
Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cleveland
The Bengals have lost four of their last five games — both straight-up and against the spread — and are now 2 games behind the teams that would qualify for the playoffs, if the season ended today. The Bengals will welcome 0-6 Cleveland to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday, and have been installed as a double-digit favorite. But it’s hard for me to lay this many points with a team whose defense is below average. Indeed, since 1980, teams that are favored by 8 or more points, with defenses that give up 23.67 points per game, are 33-73 ATS (at Game 6 forward). Also, the Bengals have covered just 68 of their last 173 division games, including 21 of 61 off back to back losses.
Carmine Bianco
Marseille at Paris Saint-Germain
Play: Over 3
PSG continue their move up the standings after a slow start to the season and offensively have begun to look better in all competitions. Their GPG average has started to move closer to what it's been in the past and a meeting with Marseille can only help. Marseille away matches are averaging 3.8/game and the last 4 between these two sides have gone over the total while averaging just over 4 goals/game. Lean on the Over here for me.
Cal Sports
Colts vs. Titans
Play: Colts +3
Prefer backing the better of the two teams off a disappointing loss in which they blew a 14 point 4Q lead versus a squad off B2B wins against two foe with a combined 2-10 straight-up record. We also have a situation with Indianapolis, a team accustom to winning, knowing that while it’s a bit early to call a must-win they are well aware they sit in the cellar of the AFC South and a loss here could potentially put them 3 full games behind the division leader and it would give them a 0-3 division record.
The Titans are 1-6 ATS as a HF the last 3 seasons including a non-covering win last week against Cleveland which has the NFL’s #26 scoring offense and now they are a favorite versus the Colts and their #7 scoring offense for the first time in 8 meetings.
Marco D'Angelo
Buffalo vs. Miami
Play: Miami +2.5
Last week Miami stunned the Steelers and while some might think that they caught a break when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. The reality is they were beating up on Pittsburgh before Ben got hurt. Yes the Steelers were looking ahead to New England this week and Miami took advantage of it but guess who Buffalo plays next week? That's right New England. Buffalo beat up on the Rams and San Francisco the last 2 weeks so what. When they beat Arizona, The Cardinals had 5 TO's and when they beat New England the Pats were down to their 3rd string QB who had an injured hand. Buffalo's 4 game winning streak is as conterfiet as it gets. Miami is a live Home Dog. Miami 27-20.
Brad Wilton
Going against the only undefeated team left in the NFL this Sunday afternoon, as I side with the home underdog Eagles plus the points against the 5-0 Vikings.
Minnesota is coming off their bye week, and catch Philadelphia having lost back-to-back contests. You have to wonder just a little why the Vikings are laying such a small number away from home?
I can tell you flat-out that I feel the price on a Minnesota team that not only has covered all 5 games this season, but have covered 10 in a row dating back to last season, and have gone 19-2 overall against the spread since last season, should be a few points higher.
This game will have every sucker and their brother lined up for a play on the Norsemen, but with Philly playing their only home game in a 5 week span - last 2 were on the road, next 2 will also be on the road! - I have to believe the Eagles get healthy in this stand alone home game and send the Vikings to their first loss of the season.
Play on Philadelphia.
3* PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
Real quick for today's freebie, as I'm laying the points with the Minnesota Vikings on the road, against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Vikings are the lone remaining undefeated team, and they're doing it with the help of Eagles throwaway quarterback Sam Bradford.
Today Bradford returns to Philadelphia looking to get the last laugh.
Now, I know Minnesota has the 30th ranked offense. That's bad. But the Vikings also have the second-ranked defense, and that's where we get the win. Philadelphia has the 22nd-ranked offense, including the 26th-ranked passing offense.
The Eagles will struggle, yes, even at home.
Minnesota's defense allowed 63 points through its first five games, the fewest for the franchise since allowing 49 points through five games in 1977. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has played well in Philadelphia, but today will be tough with the Vikings flying defensive backs everywhere in the secondary, while sending pass rushers on damn near every play.
Your free winner is on Minnesota.
1* VIKINGS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for today is on the Cincinnati Bengals over the Cleveland Browns, as I'm laying the big number.
I won't bore you with a ton of cliches or mundane details, as it's quite simple: if there is value in playing against the Browns, I'm doing it the rest of the season. I will not play on Cleveland and I will always look for a shot to go against them.
Headed to the Ohio rivalry, and AFC North bad blood, as the Bengals will devour the Browns, in what might be the most embarrassing game on the card.
Cincinnati bring a rather balanced team into this game, ranking its offense 12th behind a strong passing game, and 15th ranked defense. And make note, when the Bengals play their in-state rival, the balance from both units has paid off.
Cincinnati has won the last three in this series by lopsided scores a 30-0, 31-10, 37-3 - a combined 98-13, or, an average of 32.6-4.3. Not too shabby.
The Browns, who are 0-6 on the year, are off to their worst start since 1999. Now their 29th-ranked defense will try to stop Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton, who registered a career-best passer rating of 146.8 in a win at Cleveland last December. In the two games versus Cleveland last season, Dalton was 35 of 46 for 454 yards with five touchdowns, no interceptions and three sacks.
Trust me guys, this one gets ugly.
4* BROWNS
Brett Atkins
Let's go with the obvious for Sunday as my free play today, and that is the Buffalo Bills as the small road favorite over the Miami Dolphins.
Miami quieted the critics for the time being with their upset win over Pittsburgh last Sunday, but of course their effort was aided by Ben Roethlisberger getting injured in the contest.
Buffalo has been feasting on the lesser teams in the league these past few weeks, as they come into Miami on a 4 game win and cover streak.
The Bills have been able to control the clock by running the football, and they have allowed 19 points or less in 5 of their 6 games this season. Yes, LeSean McCoy has an iffy hamstring, but I still feel Buffalo is the play.
Buffalo swept last year's pair of meetings, and are on a 5-1 straight up and against the spread roll in this AFC East rivalry the past 3 seasons. Overall the Bills are 6-2 both straight up and against the spread versus the 'Fins.
Small number to lay, and I say you lay it.
4* BUFFALO
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Seattle Seahawks, on the road in Glendale, against the Arizona Cardinals, in an NFC West battle that could have some sort of impact on the standings down the road this season.
Seattle (4-1) arrives for the late game with a 4-1 mark on the year. The Seahawks are playing impressive defense once again, as they're averaging15.6 points allowing per game. Take them on the highway and they're allowing a mere 13 points per contest.
Arizona has won two straight, I get it, but to make it a favorite over the Seahawks is a travesty. The Cardinals' three wins have come at the expense of the Buccaneers, 49ers and Jets. Not impressive. The losses have come against the Patriots, Bills and Rams. Two of those three are vying for an AFC East title. And who know what could happen in the NFC West.
What I do know is Seattle looks like the team that went to two straight Super Bowls on the strength of a stingy defense. The Seahawks have won three in a row, including a 26-24 at Atlanta last week. And, since a 9-3 loss in Los Angeles, the Seahawks have scored 37, 27 and 26 against the Niners, Jets and Falcons, respectively.
The momentum continues tonight, as the Seahawks rolls.
4* SEAHAWKS