Free Picks for Sunday, October 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Allen Eastman
Washington (+2.5) over Dallas
I am taking the home underdog in this one. I don't think that Dallas should be favored in this game. This number is an overreaction to last week. The Cowboys were coming off a bye week and blew out a terrible 0-7 San Francisco team. Washington was blown out by Philadelphia on Monday Night Football. The books and the public are reacting to those results and now how good these two teams are. This line opened with Washington at -1.5, but then after the MNF game they dropped to +2.5. That is too big of a swing. I think the Redskins are the better team in this one. The underdog has also been the play in this series, going 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings. Washington is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Redskins are 8-3 ATS in the game after a loss. Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games and just 2-6 ATS after a win.
Strike Point Sports
San Francisco (+12) over Philadelphia
This line is just too many points as the 49ers play people tough (except this past game) and the Eagles are going to slip just a bit after their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football. San Fran has lost every game, but five of their seven losses have come by 2-3 points. The 49ers are a young team that plays hard. They will make this game much closer than people think. Will San Fran pull out the win? Not likely, but they will keep this to a one-possession game. Take the points here as the dog has bite.
Robert Ferringo
Carolina / Tampa Bay Over 44.5
The Tampa Bay defense is horrible. They've given up 30 points to the Bills and 38 points to Arizona, two of the worst offenses in the league, in the past two weeks. They also surrendered 34 points to Minnesota and 23 points to the Giants, two teams that aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. After mustering just three points at Chicago last week I think that the Panthers offense is going to be motivated for a good showing here and they should be able to push the Bucs around. Conversely, I think Tampa Bay will have some success against Carolina's Cover-2 because the Bucs match up really well with that defense. Tampa has the one thing you want to beat the Cover-2: individual talent. Guys like Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard can make off-script plays and really punish the soft spots in Carolina's secondary. The Panthers have allowed an average of 26.6 points per game in their last five contests, and I think the Bucs will threaten that as well. Both teams need this game. Both teams are going to cut loose. I see both getting into the 20s and this one will get 'over'.
John Martin
49ers vs. Eagles
Play: Over 45½
The San Francisco 49ers have been playing in shootout after shootout here of late and I don't expect that to change Sunday. They are 4-1 to the OVER in their last five games, combining for 49 or more points four times. They are coming off back-to-back 50-point efforts against NFC East teams in the Redskins and Cowboys, and now they're up against another NFC East team in the Eagles who have one of the best offenses in the NFL. That's why the Eagles are 5-1 to the OVER in their last six games, combining for 47 or more points five times with their opponents.
Matt Josephs
Steelers vs. Lions
Play: Under 45½
The Steelers are a weird team to figure out especially on the road. The splits for Ben Roethlisberger away from home are not great. This team struggled in Cleveland and lost to Chicago on the road, but also have victories at Kansas City and Baltimore. They've decided to commit themselves to LeVeon Bell and the ground game and that's the way to go. The better unit has been the defense who has allowed only one opponent to put up over 25 points and that was Jacksonville who did it with the benefit of five Steelers turnovers. Detroit is coming off a tough loss in New Orleans and is now fresh off a bye week and at home. The defense has been pretty good outside of a few efforts against Atlanta and Carolina. They've forced three turnovers or more four times already this season. Pittsburgh has gone Under in six of their seven contests and 30 of their last 44 overall. To me, this play says a lot about the Steelers road offense and their awesome defense against a Lions team rested off a bye week with a decent defense of their own.
Jack Jones
Chargers vs. Patriots
Play: Chargers +7½
The Los Angeles Chargers have saved their season with three straight victories following their 0-4 start. They are feeling good about themselves right now and their confidence is higher than it has been in a few seasons. They are right back in the mix for a playoff spot, and they will be giving the New England Patriots a run for their money this weekend.
The Chargers went on the road and beat the Giants 27-22, kicked a late field goal to beat the Raiders 17-16 on the road, and then came through with their best performance of the season last week with a 21-0 victory over the Denver Broncos. This team is gaining momentum right now and will be a the team that nobody wants to play.
What I love about getting 7.5 points with the Chargers is the fact that they just have a knack for playing in close games. They have had bad luck in these close games over the past few seasons, but they are starting to get those breaks here of late finally. Since the start of late season, the Chargers have only lost three times by more than a touchdown, and two of those were against the Chiefs.
I just think the Patriots are being overvalued here Sunday off their 23-7 win over the Falcons. Everyone just thinks their problems are cured. I'm not buying it. The Falcons blew several red zone opportunities and came away with zero points. Tom Brady threw an interception in the red zone that was overturned by a roughing the passer penalty. They simply got all the breaks in that game.
This Patriots defense is not fixed and will not be fixed all season. They had just allowed 408 total yards to the Jets the previous week, and the Falcons still managed 343 total yards despite the tough conditions in the fog. The Patriots rank dead last in the NFL in total defense giving up 426.7 yards per game. They are also 30th in the league defensively in a yards per play (6.6) basis.
Making matters worse for the Patriots is that LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder) was knocked out of the Falcons game with a torn pectoral muscle, ending his season. He is the leader of this defense and the Patriots will certainly miss him. Not to mention, corners Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe will both be questionable for this game. Offensively, WR Chris Hogan is questionable with a concussion, while WR Danny Amendola is battling a knee injury.
A rejuvenated Philip Rivers should be able to exploit this New England defense, especially since Melvin Gordon is expected to play. He is listed as probable with a foot injury. And I really believe the Chargers have an underrated defense that will be able to slow down the Patriots. The Chargers rank 8th in the NFL in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) and 5th against the pass (185.4 yards/game). They have arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in the NFL with Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to get after Tom Brady with.
The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last three seasons. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in road games against teams who commit one or less turnovers/game on the season over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games overall.
Dave Cokin
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Play: Pittsburgh -3
This is a play predicted on the massive offensive line injuries for the Lions. Cluster injuries are huge in football, and I think they're already shown to a good extent with this Detroit squad. They ended up getting a load of late points at New Orleans, but that game was 31-0 when it mattered. The Steelers have a shaky track record as road chalk in games of this type, but they also look like a team that is now playing its best football of the season. It also has to be noted that while he's a very dynamic QB, Matthew Stafford's track record vs. winning teams is truly abysmal. I just don't see the Detroit OL being able to protect Stafford well enough to win this game. With the price very reasonable, my play will be on the Steelers.
Carmine Bianco
Panthers at Bucs
Play: Over 45.5
A play on the total and Over on Sunday with two sides that both put up and allowed points at a larger than normal rate. The Bucs return home after back to back road losses where they allowed 38 and 30 and neither of those opponents have been putting up numbers of that sort this season (Arizona 17 PPG, Buffalo 19.5 PPG) . The Bucs have scored 25 or more in 5 of their past 6 and face a Panthers side that have allowed 24 or more in 4 of past 5.
The Prez
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta -5.5
Atlanta plays the visitor role on Sunday afternoon in New York with an early scheduled kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium. The Falcons (-6, 45) are on a three-game slide and took it on the chin at Gillette Stadium versus the Patriots Sunday night. The Jets allowed 17 fourth quarter points to Matt Moore and the Dolphins losing a 31-28 divisional game at Hard Rock Stadium last week. Free NFL Sunday Pick: Falcons at Jets.
The Falcons have been dysfunctional offensively without coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The unit is, however, looking more comfortable in the Steve Sarkisian scheme despite recording a lone garbage time touchdown against the Patriots this past Sunday. Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn has been vocal to the media about being more run oriented in the second half of the season. But expect that coach-speak to be discarded against a New York secondary that was bludgeoned by journeyman Matt Moore a week ago.
Atlanta's dynamic duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will see more work moving forward but the added touches figure to be through the air. Surprisingly it took Julio Jones seven weeks to record his first touchdown pass in the Sarkisian scheme. The positive in the loss to New England was how involved Jones was in the offense. The All-Pro receiver was targeted 13 times and make nine catches in the loss.
The true talent of the Jets have stood up, or fallen down, in the team's last two games. Coming off back-to-back losses, two games in which they had double-digit leads, has seen the team's defense exposed. Offer All-Pro quarterback Matt Ryan time to throw the football and he, Freeman, Coleman and Jones will have little trouble putting points on the scoreboard. The Jets defense had a mere seven sacks in six games before last week's contest against the Dolphins. They now have a mediocre 10 sacks across seven games after registering three against Miami last weekend.
The Jets can keep the game close with creative blitz schemes and by winning time of possession. Even a pedestrian Falcons defense can prevent both from happening on Sunday.
Additionally the early season Vegas and Offshore advanced lines for this game were in the neighborhood of the Falcons being touchdown favorites on the road. The Falcons loss in New England on Sunday night aids Atlanta backers in this Sunday event. Hence the value with the current Falcons minus-six handicap for this Week #8 event.
Key Trends
Atlanta is 5-1 against the spread when playing a team with an overall losing record.
The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a visitor.
In conclusion, despite playing the role of visitor for the second straight week and working on short rest due to their last game being Sunday night the group of talent on the Falcons roster will be ready for this Big Apple affair.
John Martin
49ers vs. Eagles
Play: Over 45½
The San Francisco 49ers have been playing in shootout after shootout here of late and I don't expect that to change Sunday. They are 4-1 to the OVER in their last five games, combining for 49 or more points four times. They are coming off back-to-back 50-point efforts against NFC East teams in the Redskins and Cowboys, and now they're up against another NFC East team in the Eagles who have one of the best offenses in the NFL. That's why the Eagles are 5-1 to the OVER in their last six games, combining for 47 or more points five times with their opponents.
Matt Josephs
Steelers vs. Lions
Play: Under 45½
The Steelers are a weird team to figure out especially on the road. The splits for Ben Roethlisberger away from home are not great. This team struggled in Cleveland and lost to Chicago on the road, but also have victories at Kansas City and Baltimore. They've decided to commit themselves to LeVeon Bell and the ground game and that's the way to go. The better unit has been the defense who has allowed only one opponent to put up over 25 points and that was Jacksonville who did it with the benefit of five Steelers turnovers. Detroit is coming off a tough loss in New Orleans and is now fresh off a bye week and at home. The defense has been pretty good outside of a few efforts against Atlanta and Carolina. They've forced three turnovers or more four times already this season. Pittsburgh has gone Under in six of their seven contests and 30 of their last 44 overall. To me, this play says a lot about the Steelers road offense and their awesome defense against a Lions team rested off a bye week with a decent defense of their own.
Jack Jones
Chargers vs. Patriots
Play: Chargers +7½
The Los Angeles Chargers have saved their season with three straight victories following their 0-4 start. They are feeling good about themselves right now and their confidence is higher than it has been in a few seasons. They are right back in the mix for a playoff spot, and they will be giving the New England Patriots a run for their money this weekend.
The Chargers went on the road and beat the Giants 27-22, kicked a late field goal to beat the Raiders 17-16 on the road, and then came through with their best performance of the season last week with a 21-0 victory over the Denver Broncos. This team is gaining momentum right now and will be a the team that nobody wants to play.
What I love about getting 7.5 points with the Chargers is the fact that they just have a knack for playing in close games. They have had bad luck in these close games over the past few seasons, but they are starting to get those breaks here of late finally. Since the start of late season, the Chargers have only lost three times by more than a touchdown, and two of those were against the Chiefs.
I just think the Patriots are being overvalued here Sunday off their 23-7 win over the Falcons. Everyone just thinks their problems are cured. I'm not buying it. The Falcons blew several red zone opportunities and came away with zero points. Tom Brady threw an interception in the red zone that was overturned by a roughing the passer penalty. They simply got all the breaks in that game.
This Patriots defense is not fixed and will not be fixed all season. They had just allowed 408 total yards to the Jets the previous week, and the Falcons still managed 343 total yards despite the tough conditions in the fog. The Patriots rank dead last in the NFL in total defense giving up 426.7 yards per game. They are also 30th in the league defensively in a yards per play (6.6) basis.
Making matters worse for the Patriots is that LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder) was knocked out of the Falcons game with a torn pectoral muscle, ending his season. He is the leader of this defense and the Patriots will certainly miss him. Not to mention, corners Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe will both be questionable for this game. Offensively, WR Chris Hogan is questionable with a concussion, while WR Danny Amendola is battling a knee injury.
A rejuvenated Philip Rivers should be able to exploit this New England defense, especially since Melvin Gordon is expected to play. He is listed as probable with a foot injury. And I really believe the Chargers have an underrated defense that will be able to slow down the Patriots. The Chargers rank 8th in the NFL in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) and 5th against the pass (185.4 yards/game). They have arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in the NFL with Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to get after Tom Brady with.
The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last three seasons. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in road games against teams who commit one or less turnovers/game on the season over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games overall.
Teddy Covers
Vikings vs. Browns
Play: Vikings -9½
I’ve been impressed by Mike Zimmer and the Vikings coaching staff since they arrived in Minnesota four years ago. And the way the Vikings braintrust is approaching their trip to London this week shows exactly why this particular group of coaches and management continues to impress.
Here’s the quote from Zimmer: ‘We’re going to try something a little bit different than most of the other teams. I’ll either look smart or I’ll look dumb. We’re going to get there a day early. We’ve had sleep people come talk to us; you know we’re getting the whole gamut. I was looking into all the scientific things for this.”
Those ‘scientific things’ include limiting caffeine, using special glasses to look at their smartphones while minimizing light intake, eating a heavy meal the first night in London, and a long, detailed practice immediately after sleeping on the plane over the nine hour flight.
Contrast that type of prep with the quotes coming out of the Browns locker room this week, an 0-7 team not thrilled about their trip overseas. Tight end Seth DeValve: “I’d rather not be in a plane for 16 hours, or however long it is.”
Offensive guard Kevin Zeitler, who travelled to London with the Bengals: “It’s a very long flight, a big time change with all the side effects that go with it.”
Safety Jabrill Peppers: “I’m really not fond of planes. I’m trying not to even think about it.”
WR Kenny Britt, who went to London with the Titans: “I hated London, hated it. I hated it with a passion… I hated the flight. I hated us being there so long. I hated the flight back. I hated the food. You can ask my wife the same thing, and she’ll give you the same answer.”
By itself, the Vikings ‘advanced analytics’ for their trip to London wouldn’t be enough to get me to the betting window laying more than a touchdown. But given the Browns litany of negative quotes, and their continued problems moving the football against good defenses, Minnesota’s edges are likely to get magnified here.
The Browns offensive line play has not lived up to preseason expectations, and they just lost their on and off field leader, pro bowl tackle Joe Thomas. Their QB play – from DeShone Kizer and both of his backups -- has been abysmal from Day 1, bad news against a defense that is loaded with playmakers. The Browns own pass defense ranks as a bottom five unit in the NFL, and this Cleveland team with three double digit defeats already is primed to suffer a fourth such defeat in early start action on Sunday.
Ricky Tran
Steelers vs. Lions
Play: Under 46½
From a matchup standpoint, I dont see how the Lions can score enough points here other than by turnovers or weird flags. Meaning once the Steelers hold a substantial lead they'll be playing ball and control and keeping the clock moving.
The Lions offense is non-existent. They rank 30th in yards per play at 4.6. The only offenses worse are Miami and Baltimore. Lions can’t run the ball and can’t consistently move the ball from the pocket. Stafford is at his best when the play breaks down, but that’s not sustainable. This isn’t enough to beat the Steelers, let alone score any points. The Lions need to rely on the pass (probably without Golden Tate) against a good passing defense with a strong pass rush that ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Against other top-10 defenses in sack rate, Minnesota and Carolina, the Lions struggled to move the ball through the air. LT Greg Robinson is bad, but even worse he might not play so expect his replacement to be even worse against young freak TJ Watt.
I don’t see the Lions scoring a lot here and expect a 27-14 kind of game to be won by the Steelers.