DAVE COKIN
MAGIC VS. HORNETS
PLAY: HORNETS -3.5
Orlando is looking like an improved entry in the early going. Standout wins in blowouts over Cleveland and San Antonio have fueled optimism that the Magic are a team on the rise.
I won’t argue with that assessment. But this is also a young team that might be prone to letdowns off wins vs. high level teams. Actually, that’s already happened in the early going on one occasion and I suspect it could take place here as well.
Charlotte has a chance to be an okay team, although I can’t say I’m overly impressed with their break out of the starting gate. One well respected site that does an excellent job with its projections has already lowered their total wins forecast for Charlotte by 2.5 games from where it was prior to the start of the campaign.
Nevertheless, I would look at the home side here. If the Magic play at the level they did vs. the Cavaliers and Spurs, I would assume I’ll be in trouble. But given the less intensity displayed after the win vs. the Cavs, I would not be surprised at all to see something similar today as the Magic hit the road. That means I’m leaning Hornets minus the points in today’s hookup.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Vikings over the Browns from London, England.
Early wake-up call for those in the US of A, but if you sleep on this money-making opportunity, shame on you!
Minnesota is in first place in the NFC North, as they enter play today with a 3-game winning streak, and a pair of covers in their last 2 victories.
The Vikings defense figures to wreak havoc on whoever the Browns are using under center, as Minnesota's D has held the opposition to 17 points or less in 5 straight games.
The Browns remain winless on the season at 0-7, and the points have only helped them twice this season.
Case Keenum is developing just enough of a rapport with his cast to be able for the offense to extend margins against lesser teams, and Cleveland qualifies as a lesser team.
Blowout winner on the Vikes.
4* MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
Alright, so I went 2-0 on Saturday, delivering a ridiculously big underdog on Kansas - which had no business catching that many points from Kansas State - and then completed the sweep with Notre Dame getting it done.
My first free pick on the schedule for you is going to be the New Orleans Saints, laying the big number to the Chicago Bears. I considered this game for much of the week, along with my big premium winner, but decided to denote this one as the free pick, as we're talking about a pair of surprising teams.
Chicago is just 3-4, but it is in after a huge win over the Carolina Panthers. The Bears, who are mired in a 3-8 ATS slide with a suitcase in hand, have won two straight, and are 3-2 outside the NFC North. But while I see how they could be dangerous, I also see they're -29 in the scoring department, and have lost two of three on the road.
So we're going to rely on the No. 1 offense in the league to get us the cover, and the No. 4 defense in the NFL to keep the Bears' offensive game quiet.
New Orleans, which has won the last three meetings, has covered four straight and seven of eight against losing teams.
2* SAINTS
Chris Jordan
With my second free pick on Sunday, and just like on Saturday with a huge underdog that deserved a little more respect, I'm taking the points against what looks like an easy winner on the Atlanta Falcons, so has me siding with the New York Jets.
Give me the touchdown spread at home, with the surprising Fly Boys, who many believed were going to be the worst team in the league, but is one game below .500 and a solid 5-2 against the spread.
Atlanta comes to East Rutherford after a 23-7 loss to the New England Patriots, and now has to deal with a feisty team that is looking to avoid a three-game skid after having won three in row.
We all know about Matt Ryan, and the Falcons' offensive game, but let's take a moment to appreciate Jets quarterback Josh McCown, who ranks second in the NFL with a 69.2 completion percentage. McCown was moving along fine last week, with three touchdown passes and another on the ground, but then threw a late interception to set up Miami's late winning field goal.
On defense, the Jets are a solid group up front and will be hard to penetrate. Since Week 3, New York is the only team to allow just one run off 11 yards or longer. The Jets' chemistry is better than most expected and they're going to have a chip on their shoulder for this one.
3* JETS
Tommy Brunson
The Houston Texans will be making their first trip to the Emerald City since way back in the 2005 season, so you can throw any stats on past history right out the window! Current history shows the Texans playing this game off their bye-week, and playing quite well with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson under center.
Houston has been able to score at will this year, something Seattle has not been able to do, so the points they are offering today are simply too good to pass on!
Seattle comes back home off a 24-7 road win against the Giants, but that shutdown over a very pedestrian Giants offense has not sold me on the Seahawks defense being able to consistently stop this high-octane Texans offense.
Sure, there was some distractions with Texans owner Mr. McNair and his ill-advised comments this week, but the fact is, players gonna play (Sorry, Taylor!), and Houston has a week of rest on their side, and a red-hot rookie at the helm.
Look for Houston to cover their 3rd road game in as many games away from Houston late this Sunday afternoon in the pacific northwest.
Live dog play on the Texans.
2* HOUSTON
Brandon Lee
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta -6
This is the perfect time to jump back on the Atlanta bandwagon. The public perception couldn’t be much worse after that ugly loss to the Patriots in a prime time game. The thing is, that wasn’t as lopsided as the final score would lead you to believe.
The Falcons had two failed field goal attempts (1 blocked & 1 missed) and failed to come away with any points on a 1st and Goal (went for it on 4th down). That’s at least 13-points they left on the field. Probably not enough to win, but it tells me things aren’t as bad as people think. Keep in mind they are couple plays away from being 5-1, as they could have easily won both those games they lost at home against the Bills and Dolphins.
Part of the reason Atlanta is showing such great value here is because the last time the Jets didn’t cover was Week 2 at Oakland. I think it has the Jets way overvalued in this spot. As well as New York has been playing, this team knows they aren’t going anywhere this season and could find it hard to pick themselves off the mat after collapsing the 4th quarter last week to the Dolphins. That’s two straight heartbreaking division losses, as they lost 17-24 at home to the Patriots the week before.
New York is just 1-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a loss to a division rival and 0-4 ATS when that loss comes by 7 points or less. Atlanta on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a road loss by 14 or more points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.
We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Jets. Home teams off a road loss against a team off a road loss by 14+ points are just 74-122 ATS dating back to 1983. That’s a 62% long-term system in favor of the Falcons cashing a winning ticket on Sunday.
Mike Lundin
Texans vs. Seahawks
Play: Texans +7½
The Houston Texans defeated the Browns 33-17 their last time out and they're coming off a bye week. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a bye week and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Seattle Seahawks are going for a fourth consecutive win straight up and against the spread, but this should be a tougher matchup. Note that Houston has scored at least 33 points in each of its last four games and rookie QB Deshaun Watson is tied for the AFC lead with 15 touchdown passes.
Seattle's defense has been excellent lately, but I expect the Texans to score enough points to cover the spread.
Larry Ness
Cowboys vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins +2
Both teams come in disappointed to be sitting at 3-3 at this point of the season. Washington will be looking to get things taken care of on the defensive side of the ball this week after a poor 34-24 road loss in Philadelphia on Monday night, while Dallas comes in off a 40-10 road win in San Francisco.
Previous to that though the Cowboys had lost two straight at home.
Note that Washington plays with the double revenge factor here after dropping both games in the series last year.
Dallas has gotten strong play from RB Ezekiel Elliot in the last two games, most recently he went for 147 yards and two TD’s against an inept San Francisco line. The Cowboys also looked better defensively last week, albeit against CJ Beathard, who was only able to find the endzone on a 4-yard run with five minutes remaining.
The Cowboys have been decent offensively in the early going, averaging 380.3 YPG, which ranks sixth. Defensively though Dallas has struggled, allowing 23.7 PPG, which ranks 22nd.
We haven’t heard much about Dak Prescott this year and that’s because the second-year pro has looked brilliant at times this season and rather pedestrian in others.
Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins did everything he could last Monday, going 30 of 40 for 303 yards and three TD’s (with one pick). The ground game struggled though, posting just 75 yards on 18 attempts.
On the season Washington ranks eighth in overall offense with 369.2 YPG (including sixth in passing with 254.3), while ranked 26th in points allowed at 24.5.
Divisional contests are always the toughest and they almost always “mean more” to the home side.
With a tough game at Seattle next week, I think the revenge-minded Redskins are worth a second look in this matchup.
Cappers Club
Vikings vs. Browns
Play: Under 38
The Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings kick off early in London on Sunday Morning, and with these two teams the under has the value.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been dynamic this year, and they are facing a Browns team that has been less then Dynamic.
Coming into this game the Browns are only scoring 14.7 points per game which is 31st in the NFL. They will be without Joe Thomas and the dynamic pass rushers of the Vikings defense should be able to attack that during the game.
The Vikings defense is only giving up 283 yards per game which is fourth best in the NFL.
For the Vikings offense they aren't that dynamic with Case Keenum at quarterback. They really rely on the defense to keep the games low scoring.
They are only averaging 20.9 points per game on offense which is 19th in the NFL. The offense seems to call a pretty conservative game because they know if they don't make the mistake the defense can carry them
Some trends to note. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games in October. Under is 7-0 in Browns last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Doug Upstone
49ers vs. Eagles
Play: 49ers +13
San Francisco was hammered last week while Philadelphia scored 34 points on Monday night. As crazy as this sounds, that is what makes the Niners a play. Take a look at underdogs of 10.5 or more points like the 49ers after a loss by 14 or more points, against opponent after scoring 30 points or more in last game. In the past nine years dogs like this are 26-4, 86.7%.
Jimmy Boyd
Falcons vs. Jets
Play: Over 45
The perception is that Atlanta's offense is broken and I'm just not buying it. I know the Falcons only scored 7 points last week against the Patriots, but it's not like the offense was anemic. Atlanta moved the ball, they just couldn't convert when the opportunities presented themselves. They had a couple of failed field goals and came away no points with a first and goal. The previous two weeks they played a couple of the better defenses in the Bills and Dolphins.
The Jets rank in the bottom half of the league in both scoring defense (19th) and total defense (25th). I also think this is a bad spot for New York's stop unit after laying it all on the line the last two weeks in division games against the Patriots and Dolphins. The only two teams the Jets have held under 20 points are the Browns and Dolphins, which are two of the worst offenses in the league.
Key here is I think we get enough offense from the Jets at home to push this past the mark. Atlanta's giving up 22 ppg on the road and have scored at least 17 points in each of their last 6 games.
OVER is 13-4 in the Falcons last 17 off a SU loss by more than 14 points, 13-3 in their last 16 games when listed as the favorite and 8-0-1 in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record.
Marc Lawrence
Oakland vs. Buffalo
Play: Oakland +2½
Edges - Raiders: 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS away overall under Jack Del Rio; and 4-0 SUATS following the Chiefs; and QB Derek Carr 6-1 ATS away following a division game… Bills: 6-11 SUATS before facing the Jets, including 1-5 SUATS against foes off a win… With the Bills having been outgained in each of their last five games, we recommend a 1* play on Oakland.
Red Dog Sports
49ers vs. Eagles
Play: 49ers +13
The Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL led by QB Carson Wentz. However, 13 points is a large NFL spread. The 49ers were blown out last week at home but have played mostly close games this year. I think Philly wins by 7 to 10 points so take San Francisco getting around +13.
Chip Chirimbes
Colts vs. Bengals
Play: Colts +10½
There is just nobody who wants any part of the Colt! Can you blame them? Indianapolis has had three road games to date and have lost 46-9, 46-18 and 36-22 and are coming off a 27-0 home loss. The 2-4 Bengals were manhandled by Pittsburgh last week and Marvin Lewis is 2-7 ATS as a favorite after the Steelers and the Colts are 7-0 straight-up and 6-1 ATS in this series when Cincinnati is coming off a loss of ore then seven points.
3G-Sports
Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Play: Minnesota -10
We saw a lot of good exciting things happen with the Minnesota football team the last game they played. Case Keenum, Latavius Murray, and Adam Thielen were all positive things for Minnesota. Latavius was excellent picking up big chunk plays - and Eric Kendricks has been nothing short of excellent lined up in the LB spot. Kendricks does not take downs off - and the Minnesota coaching staff keeps him engaged in important 3rd downs. The favorable Adam Thielen and his matchup ability to keep DBs staggered with great route running and his top end speed to obliterate DBs after the catch is far too much for Cleveland to try and handle And as far as the Cleveland Oline goes, they have been awful - as their QBs have been sacked with dreadful consistency. 20 times since the season began, and has also been forced to try and throw the ball far more than wanting too, as shown with 17 picks. Their poor running attack doesn't push the team to keep the chains moving, when needed to - the Vikes LBs will be hunting them all game long. Isaiah Crowell runs without seemingly seeing holes at times - which makes it easier for Kendricks and Barr to bury him for his usual 3.2 YPC. Obviously that's nothing t hang your hat on. Browns are 1-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record Minnesota has the defense and offensive weapons for a blowout win here in Europe.