Mike Anthony
Oakland vs. Buffalo
Play: Buffalo -2
The Bills can stop any team on the field from scoring when they are on the same page. And when their offense shows up they are that much tougher - and proved that last game vs Tampa Bay. If Buffalo step it up as a team and play their style of defense and get production from their QB, they can beat anybody. Buffalo has more than enough here to knock off Oakland. The Bills have a an unknown receiver corps featuring Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews - but they are armed with a good set of RBs with boulder back, Mike Tolbert, and the shifty LeSean McCoy who have picked up 4.1 and 3.4 YPC respectfully. A big key for Oakland - who have plenty of versatility at the WR slot - is that they need to run the ball far better than they have - Marshawn Lynch has been awful, so losing him isn't a great loss - but Jalen Richard has just not had a ton of work so far. Richard needs to lead the running game when they get the team in the right position, and I don't see that happening. When playing on the road - Oakland has struggled consistently with scoring the ball and they are ready for a road trip now. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall Buffalo wins this one at home and gets the ATS Cover.
Frank Jordan
Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Play: Minnesota -10.5
Minnesota is in first place in the NFC North with a 5-2 record having won three in a row including a win over another AFC North team in Baltimore last time out. Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league with an 0-7 record and been outscored by 66 points in those seven games. During this winning streak for Minnesota they have scored over 20 points in each game and limited their opponent to under 20 points. Cleveland has scored over 20 points just once this year and average under 15 points per game while allowing over 24 points per game. Look for Minnesota to continue to roll as they have too much going on offense and the defense has been limiting which they will be again especially with a lead in a 34-17 victory.
Power Sports
San Francisco vs. Philadelphia
Pick: San Francisco +13.5
The "Carson Wentz for MVP" and "Eagles are the best team in the NFC" narratives are out in full force this week following an impressive national TV showing Monday night against the Redskins. I get it as I laid the points w/ Philly against Washington, what turned out to be a 34-24 victory. The team is now 6-1 (best record in the league) and outscored its foes by 53 points (3rd best differential). But on a short week, laying double digits is not an ideal situation here, even if it is against a winless opponent. Note that the Eagles haven't been favored by this many points in a game since 2011! Time for a (temporary) sell on the NFC East leaders as their stock is a little bit too high, IMO.
It was different players and a different coaching staff, but not only have the Eagles failed to cover the last three times they have been faves of 13 or more points, they've lost all three games outright! Now, I don't see Philly losing straight up to the 49ers Sunday, but let's definitely make mention that they've won just one game by more than 13 points all season. That came against the injury-riddled Cardinals. They've been winning a lot of close games, which is just the opposite of last year when they went 1-6 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. Better fortune in close games is one of the reasons that many (myself included) thought this team's record would be much improved this year. For the record, the Eagles are only outgaining their opponents by the slightest of margins (0.2) on a yards per play basis!
San Francisco has had no luck in close games this year. After opening the year w/ a 23-3 home loss to Carolina, they would go on to lose their next five games, all by a field goal or less. No other team in league history had done that and they had to play three straight on the road at one point, losing two of those games in overtime. So they've been a proverbial "tough out" in 2017. Last week, upon their return home, I think they just ran out of gas in a 40-10 loss to Dallas (who was off its bye). Fortunately though, double digit dogs off a double-digit loss are a money-making 72.3% since 2003! Also, DD faves are just 41.4% ATS when facing winless teams over the same timeframe. This game fits BOTH of those parameters. The Eagles lost a key player on BOTH sides of the ball Monday night, Jason Peters along the O-line and LB Jordan Hicks. (Both are done for the season). The Niners starting CJ Beathard makes them no different than when they were starting Brian Hoyer. This is just another game that they'll likely lose close.
Zack Cimini
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Carolina +1.5
Tampa Bay returns home after a tough road trip that featured losses against Arizona and Buffalo. Carolina has had their own issues that culminated in a road disastrous loss to the Bears. The angle here is the Panthers defense attacking the growing issues of James Winston. Grab Carolina.
Bruce Marshall
Cowboys at Redskins
Pick: Redskins
Will take one more chance with Skins, even after letting Eagles get away from them on Monday. Capable QBs can burn this Dallas defense and Cousins at least that much. Cowboys mostly go-against since the magic rubbed off late last season and don;t want to overreact to win over 49ers team with a rookie QB making first start.
Jim Feist
San Antonio at Indiana
Pick: Indiana
The Spurs are off to a 4-1 start to the season, but have struggled on their trips to Indiana. The Spurs have covered just one of the last six in this series and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at Indiana. In addition, the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five while the dog is 5-1 ATS the last six. Indiana has also covered 11 of their last 15 games and are a nice 17-7-2 ATS their last 26 when having three or more days of rest. I give the Pacers a good shot of stealing a win here. But, I'll take the points anyways.
Executive Sports
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Play: San Francisco +13
Play On Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) slow starting offensive team scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (29-7, 81% over the last 10 seasons.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Scott Spreitzer
Oakland vs. Buffalo
Play: Oakland +2.5
We had Oakland last week and cashed when the won late at Kansas City. We felt that was a galvanizing victory for several reasons. While the general public is in love with the Bills in this one, we like the way the offensive line gave Derek Carr the time to throw last week and it certainly helps to have Amari Cooper back on track. They'll attack a Bills' defense ranked 26th against the pass. The offense is also bad through the air and we feel they'll have fall behind and not be able to catch up in this one. Oakland is on a 10-4 ATS run as a road dog and they're 8-1 ATS off an outright win when getting points.
Brandon Shively
Atlanta at New York
Pick: Atlanta -6.5
The Atlanta Falcons are primed for a bounce back in this spot against the Jets, laying under a touchdown.
The Falcons had their hands full last week with the red hot Patriots, but that won't be the case here as they matchup extremely well with the Jets.
Offensively, the Falcons should have a field day with this secondary. Atlanta has the weapons out wide, specifically Julio Jones, to really keep this defense on their heels. Jones caught the lone touchdown last week for the Falcons and there should be very little issue here finding some open plays down field.
Situationally, the Falcons are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
This one makes sense.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -2 over Carolina
While the Panthers are 4-2, that is not the story this week. Quarterback Cam Newton has again stirred things up with reporters and continues to act like a spoiled child at nearly every opportunity. Considering this teams’ defense is carrying the bulk of the load, Newton should maybe just lay low and focus on the game. A look under the hood shows that Cam’s game needs a real tune-up. Newton is just 22nd in DYAR at +1 which indicates that just about any average Joe QB could step in and do a comparable job. Newton's QBR is just 48.8%, which is good for just 19th while keeping company with the likes of Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer and Jacoby Brissett. Nobody is confusing those guys for an elite quarterback. (QBR incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties.
The Buccaneers were a sexy sleeper pick again this offseason and just seven weeks into the campaign they have disappointed, again. While it looks bad at 2-4 all is not lost for the Bucs. Quarterback play is so important in the NFL with the league trying to encourage more offense. In that regard, Jameis Winston is actually having a fine season. Winston is 6th in QB DVOA and his DYAR is 466 yards higher than Newton coming into this game. Tampa is also 6th in total offensive DVOA, ranking ahead of teams like the Eagles and Raiders, both offenses that get much more attention in the market.
For the third week in a row, the Panthers are laying a small price and the last two weeks it did not go well for them, as they lost 17-3 at Chicago and 28-23 at home to the Eagles. If the case against the Bucs is their weak defense, which was a major talking point ahead of their TNF game against the Patriots in Week 5, then we will highlight their performance in that game where they were able to hold the Pats to under 20 points. That’s more than we can say about this Panthers unit which gave up 30 when they played New England. We’d also like to point to Carolina’s Week 3 matchup with the Saints where Newton and company failed to put up more than 13 points against another defense the market perceived to be weak. The Panthers were also a short price in that game and got blown out 34-14. Carolina has struggled to cover games in its division (just 1-6 dating back to last season) and they have a home date with the defending NFC South Champion Falcons on deck next week. This is a bad spot and a bad matchup for Carolina. By contrast, the Bucs stock is low and we’re buying.
San Francisco +12½ over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles' win over the Redskins to cap off Week 7 has been called quarterback Carson Wentz’s coming out party. The second-year pivot is getting MVP talk after leading Philly to five straight wins and with the last two of those coming in prime time, the 6-1 Eagles now have the best record in the NFL. With that honor comes a ton of market appeal. Rarely do we like to discuss injuries in this space but as the wins keep piling up for the Eagles, so do the bodies in their infirmary. The Birds lost two more key players on Monday night including left tackle Jason Peters and middle linebacker Jordan Hicks. Both will miss the rest of the year with season ending surgery. Peters, an All-Pro, will be sorely missed as the anchor in a Philly O-line that already has problems protecting the quarterback. The Eagles are just 18th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate a 7.6% after giving up 19 free shots at the QB so far this year. The Eagles offense is largely one dimensional, as they bring a middle of the road running game to the table, which is again hampered by a below average O-line play. Philly is just 22nd in adjusted line yards at 3.92. The Eagles lead runner, LeGarrette Blount, is thought of as a power back but the Eagles power run game is almost nonexistent, ranking 26th with just 53% power run success. Blount isn’t busting through the line either, as the Birds are getting stuffed at the line 21% of the time. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are 20th in total defense and just 29th in defending the pass.
At 0-7 and coming off a 40-10 home loss to the Cowboys, the 49ers look like a lost cause. However, despite last week’s disappointing result, San Fran has been competitive this season with five of its seven losses coming by three points or less including two of which came in overtime. The 49ers made a change at quarterback last week with rookie C.J. Beathard getting the start and he didn’t look out of place regardless of the result. The former Iowa Hawkeye has chemistry with former college teammate, tight end George Kittle. Beathard got a vote of confidence from his teammates when fullback Kyle Juszczyk said of the new starter, “he carries himself like a vet and you don’t see him shying away from anything.”
Just two weeks ago we saw two 13+ point favorites in Atlanta and Denver lose outright. In a game between first and worst, there is going to be an overreaction on both sides. If you bet the Eagles coming off two impressive prime-time wins, you are going to be paying a massive premium to do so. For the 49ers, it’s just about as tough to go 0-16 as it is to go 16-0. You have to have a lot of bounces go against you and that’s been the story of their season. A call here or a broken tackle there and San Francisco could be 5-2 just as easily as it is 0-7. This line opened with the Eagles at -10½ points favorites and the Birds were quickly bet up to -13, proving oddsmakers could have set an already inflated line even higher and not swayed a bet. The Eagles have played one other winless team this season and that was the Giants in Week 3, where they narrowly escaped as a -5 point favorite by needing a 61-yard field goal as time expired to win the game. The NFL season is a grind and after two straight prime-time games, this is a massive letdown spot for the Eagles. The media is slobbering all over the Eagles and the local media is telling them how great they are. There is no question that we’re getting inflated points here and while that doesn’t mean we’re going to win, it does mean we are absolutely going with the best of it. The 49ers must be played here.
BUFFALO -2½ over Oakland
What do the Bills have to do to get some respect in this market? After a 30-27 home win over Tampa last week to move to 4-2, Buffalo opened this week as just a field goal favorite over Oakland. The market took a stand and jumped all over the visiting Raiders, driving this line off the key number of three. While its game last Sunday was a push, Buffalo is always a tough out at home and they proved it again in that comeback win over the Bucs. The Bills bring a top 10 (8th) DVOA defense to the table and this unit does a great job of defending both the run (7th) and pass (11th). The Bills also bring an elite special teams unit into this game ranking 6th in DVOA. With all facets of the game factored in, the Bills are tied with the Seahawks at 12.1% total DVOA which suggests they have the goods to back up their record. Finally, the Bills are just the sixth least penalized team in the NFL, officially shedding the stink of the Ryan Brothers.
This was supposed to be the year the Raiders took a leap to the next level in the AFC, but it’s been a rocky road to start the season. Quarterback Derek Carr has already missed one game to injury, but after leading his team to a comeback win over the Chiefs last Thursday night, the market seems to be back on board with the Silver and Black. We’d like to give Oakland credit for a quality win over Kansas City but the improbable series of events that led to the game-winning touchdown would take up too much space to cover here. The Raiders are a very popular team in the market and especially on the ground in Vegas, which is further enhanced by the team’s planned relocation to Sin City. While all seems to be right with Carr back at the helm, the Raiders are actually the third worst team in offensive time of possession, just ahead of the Giants and 49ers who have one combined win between them. Because their offense can't stay on the field, the Raiders defense has been punished this season and rank 29th in defensive DVOA. Oakland is weak against both the pass (31st) and the run (20th). The Raiders have been outgained in four of their last five games by an average of 144.25 yards. The reality is that the Raiders are a middle of the pack team but coming off a huge primetime win has reinvigorated the market's interest in them. The Bills are the superior team here but are not priced as such. The Bills can play keep away all game, wear out this already worn out defense and get us to the cashier’s window in rather convincing style.
CINCINNATI -10½ over Indy
Despite its two wins, Indianapolis might be the worst team in the NFL. The Colts are 32nd in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). A further breakdown shows they are 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th on defense. Indy’s two wins this season have also come against the weakest of competition in the Browns and 49ers who are a combined 0-14 in 2017. The Colt’s perception in the market seems to be largely based on two decent halves of football in a pair of prime-time games this season. Indy hung around with the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football before the train came off the tracks and it had a double-digit lead over the Titans on MNF before melting down again. The Colt’s might look like a Jekyll and Hyde kind of team that is capable of playing well from time to time but trust us, this team has very little of the good doctor in it and no matter how well they start, they cannot mask the evil within. The Colts are who we think they are. They are a dumpster fire of the highest kind.
Like the Colts, the Bengals are a two-win team but Cincy hasn’t been nearly as bad as its competition this week. The Bengals bring a solid defensive unit to the table, ranking 11th in defensive DVOA, sandwiched between the Vikings and Panthers, who both carry a lot more weight in the market. The Bengals were beat 29-14 by the Steelers last Sunday but there is no shame in that loss, as the Steelers are the top DVOA team in the league after seven weeks. The Bengals beat the Bills two weeks ago and had the Packers on the ropes before becoming another tick on Aaron Rodgers’ belt. The Bengals had such a poor start to the season that they have not yet recovered in the market. Andy Dalton was written off as the worst quarterback in the league after the first two weeks but since then he and the offense have been competent enough to support a very good defense.
What appears on paper to be a battle between a pair of two-win teams is actually quite a mismatch, as this line would indicate. The question now becomes how can Cincy be laying double digits to anyone, especially when it hasn’t been any more than a -5 point favorite all season (and lost that game outright)? For an explanation we need to look back at the only team the Bengals have played that’s on the Colts level this season and that is the Browns. Cincy crushed Cleveland 31-7 as a -3 point favorite. Those 31 points are significant, as the Browns defense is a full 14.3% DVOA points higher than the Colts. The game total of 41 is the second-lowest total on the board this week and the numbers suggest only one of these teams is likely to put up points. While taking back double digits with the Colts may look appealing, be warned this one is likely to get ugly and it’s not going to be Indy running up the score. The Bengals are much better than their two wins indicate while the Colts are worse. The difference between the league's bottom tier squad and the Bengals is more than two touchdowns and we’re not even being asked to spot that.
The Rest of the Games
Minnesota -9½ over Cleveland
The NFL cash-grab continues this week across the pond and we’re not wavering from our refusal to bet games that take teams completely out of their routine. It is no coincidence that most games are blowouts and we don’t want to get involved when there are 250 other games to choose from every week. The NFL says they are considering locating a team in England for the 2021 or 2022 season but don’t believe it. New markets, new audiences, whole new populations of people to use as a revenue stream is the only reason they are there.
The 5-2 Vikings come off their third straight win. The 0-7 Browns are still searching for that elusive first win much as they may in every game this year. There is always the hope for a trap game against an opponent that tried to mail in their win but it’s hard to see it happening against a very good defense. It’s also hard to be optimistic to expect the Browns to travel better than the Vikings. The blowouts that occur frequently in London has us leaning Vikes because if there is another blowout, we highly doubt it’ll be the Brownies doing the blowing out. Furthermore, the Brownies are one of a handful of teams left that has yet to make this trip overseas and the last team making its first trip was the Ravens, who got smoked by the Jags, 44-7 earlier this year. There is no way we’re spotting 9½-points with the Vikes and the only reason were leaning their way is because of the two aforementioned factors. No interest here and no recommendations but if you must bet a game at 9:30 AM EST or 6:30 AM PST, than take the Vikes. Play Minnesota -9½ (No bets).
N.Y. JETS +4 over Atlanta
The Falcons started the 2017 season with a 3-0 record, running roughshod of the NFC North with wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit. Next up came a three-game run with the AFC East, which hasn’t gone nearly as well. With games against Buffalo and Miami at home and at New England, Atlanta has managed just 41 points in three straight losses. Fortunately for them, AFC losses don’t count against them in any tie-breaker scenario, but what started out as such a strong season has been swirling down the drain since Oct. 1 but we have to question the mood surrounding the Falcons in preparation for this one. The Falcons were excused for losing to Miami with the Patriots on deck but that excuse does not hold any weight anymore because they were not close to being ready for New England, a game they had circled on their calendars. After every team was gutting the Pats defense, Atlanta couldn’t move five yards. They wanted that game so badly that they were gambling early on fourth downs when they needed six and seven yards respectively. In terms of in-game decisions, Dan Quinn is completely clueless. It is inconceivable that the Falcons averaged 34 points per game in 2016 and can take the same players (but not offensive scheme) and average 21 points per game this year but only 13 points over the last three losses. The decline in the offense is profound and it is not from a suddenly tougher schedule. Atlanta was lucky to beat the Lions and should be on a four-game losing streak. This is a team that has lost its way and after last week’s revenge motivated game in New England in which they were embarrassed, may have lost their will too. This is not a road team you want to get behind spotting points. The Falcons are ripe for the pickings.
The Jets are coming off back-to-back loses to New England and Miami but they could have easily won them both. In fact, the Jets could very easily be on a five-game winning streak. Here’s a team that beat Jacksonville, should’ve beaten New England and looked like a sure winner last week against the motivated Dolphins. After two tough losses, one has to wonder what the Jets mood is too but we’re not concerned. We read the practice reports after Wednesday’s first full practice of the week and we liked it.
After the Jets got done stretching at the beginning of practice Wednesday, linebacker Demario Davis gathered the team in the middle of the field and delivered an impassioned speech, emphasizing what the Jets need to fix moving forward. After, players said it was a good practice. It started with Davis, who has become a team leader in his second stint with the Jets. “It resonated with all of us,” quarterback Josh McCown said. Aside from one game in Oakland in Week 2, the Jets have been in every game this year and this one figures to be no different. Few teams face the pressure the Falcons do here, especially considering the Saints have won four games in a row to seize control of the NFC South lead. Football is an emotional game. Without focus and drive, no team can succeed no matter the talent discrepancy. After blowing the Super Bowl, the Falcons have not been the same team and now the losing has become contagious. Play N.Y. Jets +4 (no bets).
SEATTLE -5½ -108 over Houston
Deshaun Watson and the Texas are officially on the radar after a string of five games that has seen the rookie quarterback go 3-2 since taking over the job with two very forgivable losses at the Patriots (36-33) and versus the then undefeated Chiefs (42-34). In the world of the NFL, fantasy is reality and Watson has made big waves in both DFS and season-long circles. That raises his profile in the market, as does the fact he’s covered in four of his first five starts. The market loves a winner and Watson is just that. We also believe he is for real but we also must react to the market’s infatuation with him. All we’ve heard about the Texans this week is that they are the “it” sleeper team now in the AFC. Everyone expects them to be well rested and healthier after the bye but we love to fade overvalued teams coming off a break. The break messes with their momentum and there’s a chance Houston could be caught flat-footed here. While a lot of weight has been put on Houston’s quality losses, we must also point out its fairly uninspiring list of victories. The Bengals, Titans and Browns are just a combined 6-14 and while Tennessee has four W’s, two of those game against the Colts and Browns, two of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Seahawks look to have hit their stride after three straight wins and should be eager to return home after two road contests. The Seahawks perception in the market is not what it once was and we can point to their slow starts for a big reason why. Seattle has had its hands full with very poor teams like the Colts and Giants but what seems lost is its very strong second halves to those games. Russell Wilson is playing at a very high level and is getting all of his receivers involved after finding 11 different targets against the G-Men last week. Wilson is getting credit for being a one-man show but a closer look shows that the Seahawks strength is still their defense. This team is 9th in defensive DVOA while the offense is a surprising 17th. The defense is so good that it keeps Seattle in the top 10 to total DVOA at 12.1%. The Seahawks are also a different beast at home, sporting one of the loudest home-field advantages in the leagues. Bad things happen to good quarterbacks at CenturyLink Field and it can unravel quickly. The Seahawks defense is known to carry a huge chip on their shoulders and should be motivated to derail the Deshaun Watson hype train. Don’t sleep on the Legion of Boom. Play Seattle -5½ (No bets).
L.A. Chargers +7½ over NEW ENGLAND
Put this week aside for a second and let’s discuss last week. New England came in with a struggling defense that couldn’t stop anyone. The Patriots were 4-2 prior to last week but they weren’t hot and they weren’t cold either. The Pats had just escaped the Jets the week before on a hugely controversial call and the week before that; the Pats barely escaped the Buccaneers, 19-14.
Atlanta was cold. The Dirty Birds revenge motivated date with the Pats in prime time came after Atlanta had just lost to Buffalo and Miami, the latter as a 13-point choice. Against that pair, the high-flying Falcons managed to score 34 points combined. Three weeks ago, Atlanta got help from the zebras against Detroit otherwise they would have been facing New England on a three-game losing streak. Consider all the above and then note last week’s Atlanta/New England rematch was in Foxboro and the Patriots were a mere -3½-point choice.
Enter the Chargers this week, who are on a three-game winning streak. Enter the Chargers this week, whose last loss was to Philadelphia by a score of 26-24. Their last loss before that was to Kansas City. The Bolts could easily be on a four-game winning streak that would’ve included a win over Philadelphia. They come in very warm and confident. Last week, New England was a -3½ point choice over the cold Falcons and this week the Pats are a -7½-point choice over the warm Chargers all because of one overreaction to New England whacking the Falcons in prime time. That can’t be.
You are also going to read or hear that when Tom Brady is the quarterback, the Pats are 6-0 opposite quarterback Philip Rivers. Not since more than a decade ago – October 2005 – has a Brady-quarterbacked team lost to Team Spanos, a fellow AFC club. To that we say big deal, as that is another useless trend that only works in our favor more. New England's high-powered offense has been held below 20 points in consecutive weeks and below 25 for three straight. Now Tom Brady and Co. face a Chargers’ defense that's eighth in the NFL in points allowed. Philip Rivers and Co. will take back 7½-points here against the NFL’s 32nd ranked pass defense. In sticking with our philosophy of betting against overreactions to one result, the Bolts are the prudent choice. Play: San Diego +7½ (No bets).
Chicago +9 over NEW ORLEANS
all know the story of the Bears 14-point victory last week over Carolina. There were more points in the TEN-CLE game and they had no touchdowns. The Bears only totaled 175 yards of offense and that was aided by the 70-yard catch by Tarik Cohen. Mitchell Trubisky completed four-of-seven passes for 107 yards. It would have been just 37 yards was it not for the Cohen catch. It was called one of the luckiest victories in NFL history and now the smart guys think that fading the Bears will work because the result was misleading. It was misleading but once again, we emphasize to not put too much emphasis on one game.
Mitchell Trubisky is just getting his feet wet. The Bears have him learning on the go and at some point they are going to open up the playbook a little bit more. In Trubisky's three NFL starts, he has flashed his athletic ability, arm strength and accuracy on the move but the Bears also have rolled out extremely limited game plans for the rookie, and the offense is averaging only 12.7 points per game in his starts. Trubinsky is going to get progressively better with each passing week. Don’t count him out. Aside from that, the Bears played a defensive brand of football the past two weeks that hasn’t been seen around these parts since the days of Lovie Smith and the “Monsters of the Midway”. After seven games, the Bears are a top-15 defense in points allowed (14th), total yards (seventh), passing yards (ninth) and rushing yards (11th) per game.
The 4-2 Saints have won their last four games and apparently stole a defense from somewhere. Nobody remembers that the Saints were crushed by New England in Week 2, lost by 10 to the Vikes in Week 1 and allowed the Lions to score 38 points on them in Week 6. The Saints wins were over Miami, Carolina, Detroit and the Rodgers-less Packers. We love New Orleans response to losing its first two games but near double digits is rich to lay a resurgent Bears’ squad with much better offensive upside than advertised and with a pretty damn good defense. The mood surrounding the team is different too and it’s all positive. Play: Chicago +9 (No bets).
DETROIT +127 over Pittsburgh
The Lions are 3-3 after seeing some of that late game luck last season come back and haunt them here in 2017. Detroit could easily be 5-1 after a pair of heartbreaking home losses to the Panthers and Falcons by a combined seven points. Despite their .500 record, the Lions are quietly sporting a seventh ranked DVOA defense (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) with great success covering number one wide receivers (5th) which will serve them well with one of the best in Antonio Brown coming to town this week. The Lions defense has performed well while facing the 10th toughest schedule according to Football Outsiders. Detroit is not a popular public team and rarely are they featured in prime time outside of Thanksgiving so this is a big Sunday night game against a high profile opponent. The Lions should be rested and ready and while we aren’t always a fan of teams coming off a bye, Detroit is 5-0 against the spread its last five in this spot.
There is no denying the Steelers are on a roll at 5-2 after being left for dead just three weeks ago in the midst of a blowout home loss to the Jaguars. Pittsburgh rallied the wagons around struggling star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and dethroned the undefeated Chiefs in Kansas City. They then followed that up with a dominating 29-14 win over the division rival Bengals as a small home favorite in what many in the market thought would be a letdown game. After having their stock hit rock bottom, the Steelers’ price is now soaring again so it’s time to sell. While Pittsburgh is made up of superstar players, this is a squad that doesn’t always come together to be better than the sum of its parts. The Steelers' lockers room is full of malcontents, miscreants and divas from the aforementioned Brown to the often suspended Le'Veon Bell and Martavius Bryant. The latter will be benched for the Sunday nighter because he is unhappy with his role in the offense and was critical of his place in the organization. Pittsburgh is a team that has proven it can be very good or very bad and we’ve seen both sides this season. After a huge win in KC and a bitter division matchup last Sunday, we wonder if the Steelers will bother to get up for a much less meaningful game on the road against an NFC opponent and we’re not coming off our stand just yet that the Steelers are all on the same page. Talent wise, man for man, Pittsburgh might be the best in the business but this team is full of individuals that do not show up half the time. Give the ball to Le’Veon Bell 20 times and use play action and Pittsburgh would be near impossible to stop. Throw in its great defensive players and they would the odds on favorite to win it all. However, we know better than to put a lot of trust in a bunch of individual, weed smoking players that care more about how they individually perform than they do the result. Play: Detroit +127 (No bets).
Dr Bob
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
Lean – Chicago (+9) over NEW ORLEANS
This game features two teams succeeding with drastically different styles. Bears games are averaging the fourth-least yards per play this season while Saints games are averaging the fourth-highest combined yppl. Chicago gains just 56% of their yards from passing while the New Orleans passing offense accounts for 69% of their yards.
The Bears 7th-ranked ground game has a good matchup this week against a Saints defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush (30th) and the Bears have proven that they can take advantage of a soft defensive front. Chicago combined for 356 rushing yards on nearly 4.9 yards per carry in the two games in which they faced teams in the bottom third of the league in rush defense (Atlanta and Baltimore) and New Orleans’ run defense is considering worse than both of those teams. I expect Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen to have success in this game, which will take some pressure off of rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
The Saints will also need to rely on their rushing attack on Sunday. Since the week 3 return of top cornerback, Prince Amukamara, Chicago’s pass defense ranks 6th in my pass defense ratings and that unit has been improving as the season has progressed – the Bears have held their opponents to a combined 4.6 yppp the last 3 weeks. New Orleans rushing offense ranks 6th in my metrics and I expect them to find some holes against an average Chicago rush defense, but the Bears should have enough ground success of their own while limiting the Saints’ aerial attack to keep this game close.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lean – Carolina (+2) over TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers have been very good offensively so far this season, ranking 2nd in compensated yards per play with quarterback Jameis Winston triggering an aerial attack that ranks 2nd in my metrics. Tampa Bay’s ground game is below average and the mid-season addition of Doug Martin has not made much of a difference thus far so I don’t expect the Buccaneers’ to have success on the ground versus a Panthers defense surrendering just 3.7 yards per rush. Tampa Bay will need to rely on the arm of Winston but he’s facing a tough matchup against a Carolina secondary ranked 9th in my metrics.
The Panthers offense has been up and down this season but that unit should have success in this game. Tampa Bay has been decent holding opponents to 4.0 yards per rush this season (16th) but overall the Bucs rank 30th in the league in yards per play allowed (6.1 yppl) because their pass defense is horrendous. I don’t expect Carolina’s 29th-ranked rush offense to be featured in this game, as the Panthers are likely to rely on their air attack. Cam Newton will need to exploit Tampa Bay’s 30th-ranked pass defense and he proved worthy in his only other game this season against a bottom-10 pass defense – throwing for 9.8 yards per pass play against the Patriots. I expect Newton to have another good game on Sunday.
It is uncertain whether three key Panthers will play, as Luke Kuechly (questionable), Ryan Kalil (questionable), and Trai Turner (doubtful) are all possibly out, but I will lean with Carolina plus the points.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lean – San Francisco (+12.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles historic success on 3rd down continued on Monday night as they converted 6 of 12 3rd downs into 1st and 10. At 51% for the season, Philadelphia is trying to become the first team in the last 5 years to convert more than half of their 3rd downs for an entire season but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll continue to have that much success. The Eagles have added 15 more points than the second-best team on third down this season but their 1st-2nd down offense ranks just 24th in my numbers. If Philadelphia regresses on 3rd down, which is likely, then their offense will suddenly look much worse. San Francisco’s defense has been particularly bad on 3rd down allowing a 50% conversion rate (last) and they’re due to be better in that category going forward.
CJ Beathard was unsurprisingly not very effective in his first start last week, averaging just 4.3 yppp. Rookie quarterbacks getting their first start this late into the season are generally a bad proposition as it is usually a move out of desperation rather than merit. I expect a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde as long as this game is close but he’ll have to go against an Eagles rush defense surrendering just 3.3 yards per carry the last 3 weeks. San Francisco is 0-7 but the Niners have lost 5 of those 7 games by 3 points or fewer and winless teams at 0-7 or worse are 21-3 ATS as underdogs of more than 11 points since 1985. I’ll lean with San Francisco in what looks like a letdown spot for an Eagles team coming off a satisfying Monday night win over division rival Washington.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
I wrote extensively why I thought Andy Dalton would struggle last week in Pittsburgh and he went on to throw for 3.2 yppp and 2 interceptions. However, this week I’m expecting a bounce-back game. The Bengals offensive line is one of the worst in the league and Dalton’s performance is dependent on a clean pocket. Last season, Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure according to Football Outsiders. In the three games this season the Bengals offensive line has faced a defense with a sack rate less than 7%, Dalton is averaging 7.8 yppp. Meanwhile, Dalton has thrown for just 4.3 yppp against defenses with a sack rack above 7%. The Colts defense has a 5% sack rate (26th) and I expect Dalton to have time in the pocket in this game. Furthermore, Dalton plays particularly well against defenses he hasn’t faced in the last season. For his career, Dalton’s record is 28-9-2 against non-familiar opponents compared to 20-26 against familiar opponents. Dalton has thrown 78 touchdowns and 29 interceptions against non-familiar opponents compared to 54 touchdowns and 49 interceptions against familiar opponents. Dalton’s only game this season against a non-familiar opponent was against the Packers where he threw for 6.4 yppp, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions in the week 3 overtime loss. Indianapolis certainly qualifies as a non-familiar opponent as Dalton hasn’t faced them since the 2014 season. The Colts pass defense ranks last in my numbers and this week seems like the perfect storm for Dalton to have a big game.
Cincinnati’s defense ranks 3rd in yppl and I don’t expect them to have much trouble stopping an Indianapolis offense averaging just 4.7 yppl (28th). In the three games the Bengals defense has played against offenses averaging less than 5 yppl this season, they held the Ravens, Browns, and Bills to a combined 3.7 yppl.
Despite all of the evidence that supports Cincinnati here, I’m going to have to pass this game due to an onslaught of situational analysis that favors the Colts, including a 150-60-2 ATS situation and a 50-18-1 ATS angle that plays on teams that were shutout the previous week. For those the like the situations, the Colts are for you. But, not for me. I’ll pass.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Lean – WASHINGTON (+2) over Dallas
Lean – Under 47.5
The total on this game is high because both offenses have been efficient while both defenses rank in the middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. However, the combined average of 5.6 yards per play in Washington’s games so far this season is misleading, as the Redskins have faced a slate of mostly good offensive teams with below average defensive units. In fact, Washington’s opponents combine to rate at 0.34 yppl better than average offensively (3rd toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league) and 0.35 yppl worse than average defensively (3rd easiest slate of defenses faced). Overall, Washington’s defense is actually better than their offense after compensating for schedule strength and the Redskins offense plays at the 4th slowest pace in the league.
There’s also reason to believe both teams will focus on the ground game, which will keep the clock moving for the under. After another dominant performance last week, Ezekiel Elliott seems to have gotten past his early season struggles and the Cowboys rush offense now ranks 1st according to my metrics. However, on the other side of the ball, the Dallas defense ranks last against the run, which should lead to the Redskins running the ball more often than usual and slowing their pace even more. My model projects just 45 total points scored even without accounting for the multiple injuries to Washington’s offensive line (4 of their starting 5 are listed on the injury report). I will lean under with both teams feeding their running backs and I’ll also lean with Washington as an underdog.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Lean – Pittsburgh (-3/-2.5) over DETROIT
Lean – Under 45.5
Detroit’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 4.6 yppl (30th), and I expect it to get even worse for them in this game. The Lions will be without top receiver Golden Tate against a stingy Steelers defense surrendering a league-low 4.4 yppl. Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks first in my numbers, which is bad news for a Lions offense calling passes on 63% of their plays (7th-most). It is also unlikely Detroit will find success on the ground as I have their rush offense ranked last in the league.
After the week 5 play calling disaster against Jacksonville, it seems Steelers offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, has found the recipe for success. Pittsburgh’s point differential in games where Le’Veon Bell gets more than 30 touches is +55, compared to just -24 in other games. Obviously, Bell will get more carries in games where the Steelers lead but the drastic difference in success speaks for itself.
I expect the Steelers to feature Bell heavily in this matchup, which will also keep the clock moving for the under. Furthermore, both these teams play a slow pace averaging more than 30 seconds per play. I don’t see the Lions having any success on offense and the Steelers should win this game. In fact, I would have considered Pittsburgh as a potential Best Bet if not for a negative 17-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies. I’ll still lean with Pittsburgh at -3 or less even with that situation in play and I’ll lean with the Under, which is probably the better play.
Randall The Handle
BEST BETS
Browns (0-7) vs. Vikings (5-2) at London, England
This will be the third game played in London this month. The first two resulted in one-sided shutouts with New Orleans topping Miami by 20-0 followed by the Rams’ 33-0 rout of the Cardinals. Sorry England but you ain’t seen nothing yet. The Browns are coming for a visit. If you aren’t familiar with them, they have one victory in their past 26 games. If you think things can’t go from bad to worse, think again. One of the stalwart players of this era went down for the first time in 10 seasons with Joe Thomas’ ability and leadership being irreplaceable. Thomas usually blocks for runners and protects the quarterback’s blindside. His replacement, Spencer Drango, has neither the skill nor experience to play adequately at the position. Mistake prone QB DeShone Kizer (3 TD’s, 11 INT’s) will be this week’s starter for Cleveland as its quarterback carousel continues to spin, mainly out of control, for a team that lacks playmakers and coaching. Vikes defence is a strong unit while a steady offence won’t require much to earn a win and cover on this trip. TAKING: VIKINGS –9½
Chargers (3-4) at Patriots (5-2)
Corkscrewed into the minds of most bettors is to not go against the Patriots. Oddsmakers know that. So to compensate, they have Joe Public pay a premium. This game is a prime example. The Patriots should not be favoured by more than a touchdown here. But as the saying goes, we’re not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. New England has been favoured by seven or more on four occasions this season and have failed to cover in each, losing two of four straight up. The Chargers have the superior defence in this matchup. Their strong edge rushers have the ability to pressure Tom Brady while the same can’t be said of New England’s pass penetration. The Bolts are feeling better about themselves after winning consecutive games following some close and difficult losses. There is a lot of room here as QB Philip Rivers is a gamer that will fight to the end. As an underdog of 6½ or more, Rivers has covered 13 of 17. Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS on road this season. Value is with the visitor. TAKING: CHARGERS +7½
Cowboys (3-3) at Redskins (3-3)
Good spot for the Redskins as they are taking back a few points to a Dallas team whose stock is up after a 40-10 clobbering of the 49ers last week while Washington’s worth might be down after a porous 2nd half vs. Philadelphia this past Monday for all to see. However, we’re not trusting the Cowboys defence just yet. Stymieing the Niners’ offence does not impress, especially when facing a rookie quarterback in his first ever start and it occurred on 10 days’ rest for Dallas. Prior to last week’s win, the ’Boys had relinquished 129 points in four games (32 points per game) in previous four contests. The Redskins have enough offensive fire power to keep their visitors honest. QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions and has two or more touchdown passes in four consecutive games. Dallas has covered only 12 of past 37 when favoured after a win while Washington is 5-1 ATS in previous six games following an ATS loss, TAKING: REDKSINS +2
THE REST
Bears (3-4) at Saints (4-2)
The Bears have won back-to-back games despite rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky throwing for 113 and 107 yards respectively. That’s equivalent to the soccer team that won the championship a couple years ago without having a shot on goal in the final. Trubisky completed just four passes in Chicago’s win over Carolina last week. The Bears had just two first downs in the second half, both in the fourth quarter while trying to kill clock. You get the picture. It is nearly impossible to sustain success with those type of numbers. It will be even more challenging against one of the league’s hottest teams as the Saints have won four straight. However, the Bears are playing good defence and that goes a long way when taking an abundance of points. Also not sure if New Orleans may have caught some teams in difficult situations during win streak. TAKING: BEARS +9
Falcons (3-3) at Jets (3-4)
Let’s not fool ourselves. This is not last year’s Atlanta team. The team obviously misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan as the Falcons have hit a scoring drought when compiling just 41 points combined over their past three games. Now they will be asked to give away road points when playing the second leg of consecutive road games. We’re not anxious to be doing that. The Jets have been a pleasant surprise this season after many deemed them to be the league’s worst team. Todd Bowles’ club had won three straight before succumbing to the Patriots in a close one and then dropping an overtime contest to the Dolphins last week. But this is a good matchup to rebound. Jets will pound their running backs and utilize emerging tight-end against Atlanta’s softish secondary. Falcons could also be flat after hype of Super Bowl rematch last week. Jets cashing tickets as a home dog with seven covers in previous 10 when taking points here. TAKING: JETS +4
Panthers (4-3) at Bucs (2-4)
Would the real Cam Newton please stand up? Hard to handicap the Panthers these days as Cam’s inconsistencies near impossible to predict. Even so, we’re going to give a slight lean to the erratic thrower’s side as Tampa Bay has its own issues. Most notably is an injury to QB Jameis Winston who did not practice in early part of week. We’re also encouraged by the return of Carolina LB Luke Kuechly after he missed last week’s game with a concussion. Led by Kuechly, Panthers’ defence quietly ranks third in league in yards allowed while being fourth best in both rushing and passing yards permitted. Conversely, Tampa’s stop unit ranks a disappointing 30th overall on defence and that should help Newton & Co. get back on track. Bucs have just one cover in previous five games while Panthers have been stellar on road with 5-1 ATS mark as guests. TAKING: PANTHERS +2
49ers (0-7) at Eagles (6-1)
The talk of the 49ers losing a five-set of games by close margins is out the window after getting their doors blown off in 40-10 dismantling at home to Dallas. Now this undermanned squad will travel clear across the U.S. to play an early game against the NFC’s top squad and it will be San Fran’s fourth road game in five weeks. The Niners chose to give rookie QB C.J. Beathard a look and while he wasn’t a complete dud in last week’s loss, he didn’t impress much either. The Niners have some hurts and it may be time for them to be thinking of next year’s draft as they battle the Browns for league ineptitude. The Eagles just keep on winning and we hardly expect them to take the foot off the gas pedal as Cowboys and Redskins are not far enough out of rear view mirror. Garbage time points always a concern but we’ll overlook it in this mismatch. TAKING: EAGLES –13
Raiders (3-4) at Bills (4-2)
The Bills have only failed to cover in one game this season (top money maker in NFL). Are oddsmakers miscalculating this unheralded team? We’re beginning to think so. Buffalo has not lost at home in three tries this season. They’ll be playing an early game against an Oakland team flying in from the west coast. It’s also a Raiders team that was one play away from losing five straight before squeezing out a bizarre and controversial win in Kansas City on final play of game. The Raiders only road win this year was opening week at Tennessee. Of greater concern is the subpar linebacker play of this visitor and it would not surprise to see LeSean McCoy do some damage both running and catching passes out of the backfield against this forgiving unit. The Bills defence is playing at a high level and +10 in takeaways demonstrates their feistiness. Raiders just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in past five as road underdog. TAKING: BILLS -2½
Colts (2-5) at Bengals (2-4)
No defence has been as useless as this Indianapolis group. Still, we can’t bring ourselves to give away double-digits with goofy Bengals. Cincinnati has not been asked to spot more than five points this season and the only time at that price, they lost straight up to Houston. Cincy’s coaching staff is coming under fire after strange play calling in loss to Steelers as top, runner Joe Mixon had only seven carries all game while Andy Dalton was getting crunched throughout afternoon with poor protection. The Colts have been horrid but even poor teams have a tendency to bounce back after embarrassing outings (Indy shut out at home to Jacksonville last week). History shows that double-digit underdogs after a double-digit loss are 106-83-4 vs. spread while underdogs that were just shutout at home have covered 18 of past 26 when it occurs. Bengals have managed just eight covers in past 20 after facing Pittsburgh and few if any were in this price range. TAKING: COLTS +11
Texans (3-3) at Seahawks (4-2)
Houston might be the sentimental choice here with the league starving for good, young quarterbacks and Deshaun Watson’s arrival appearing to fulfill the need. However, this will be the youngster’s toughest task to date as he’ll head to Seattle to face a Seahawks’ teams that is currently playing lights out on defence. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 15.7 points per game and that’s after playing four of first six on the road. While Seattle’s offence is much maligned, Russell Wilson’s 243 yards per game passing ranks 11th overall while other offensive categories find the Seabirds around the middle of the pack or better. Tight end play has been week with Jimmy Graham looking more like Jimmy Fallon but Wilson is savvy enough to make it up in other ways. Houston has lost to contenders New England and Kansas City. This opponent ranks with that duo. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –5½
Steelers (5-2) at Lions (3-3)
The Lions had won three of four before losing three of four so which team returns from its bye remains to be seen. Still, we prefer the rested home side taking points despite recently improved play of Steelers. Detroit needed the time off as QB Matthew Stafford was dealing with a rib issue and his production had dropped off from the start of the season in a couple of losses before this break. The Lions are being undervalued here because of that mini-slump combined with Pittsburgh’s uptick. The Leos have also performed well after their rest, currently on a 5-0 ATS run upon returning from bye. This is also when the Steelers typically fail. They are on the road where they lost at Chicago and struggled with the Browns in a narrow win. With overrated Mike Tomlin as head man, his team has covered just 11 of previous 35 as road chalk. TAKING: LIONS +3
Joey Juice
I don't normally bet NE under, but this hasn't been a normal year for the Pats.
Look, there is no way that the Chargers can be thinking shootout because they are out-gunned. Only strategy worth pursuing for the Bolts to ratchet up the defense and keep this game as low scoring as possible.
The Chargers defense has been very tough lately, look for Bosa and the pass rush to try and bother Brady.
A look inside the numbers shows why the under is the play. The Chargers went Under the last 4 times they played the AFC, and they went under 4 out of the last 5 times they played New England (who is 7-3 Under last 10 in October).
Chargers-Patriots to land Under.
2* L.A.CHARGERS-NEW ENGLAND UNDER
Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Play: Detroit +3
The Lions are off a bye week and are 8-1 ats with rest vs a non division team, they have covered 3 of 4 at home in this series. The Steelers are off a big division win and are 0-5 ats after the Bengals and are 1-7 ats with rest vs a team off a bye. The Steelers take their foot off the game with a bye week up nest as they are 0-5 ats. Look for the Lions to roar tonight.
spartan
Chargers vs. Patriots
Play: Chargers +7.5
I admire the way the Chargers have battled back after that dreadful 0-4 start. This was an 0-4 team that's let's face it, have no real home right now. When they play their home games there are more fans in the stands wearing the other teams colors than their own. But they have now prevailed in three straight games setting up was is in reality of pretty big battle at New England. When you look at this Chargers team their season could oh so easily look entirely different. They dropped a heart breaker in the opener that monday night in Denver. Then they dropped a narrow 2 point game to the Dolphins. They also dropped a narrow 26-24 game to the Eagles. So typical of the Chargers the last few years, close but no cigar. But a team that generally fights hard and never gives up. Personally I hope they can make a run for the post season. Can they do it? Gun to my head probably not, but I would love it. Now they travel to New England getting what I consider a generous 7.5 points to the Patriots who are off a big, emotional win in the super bowl rematch with the Falcons. But in all candor the defending champions have looked very human most of the season to this point. They got smoked at home by the Chiefs 42-27. They also got beaten by the mediocre Panthers, narrowly knocked off the Buc's. They had to rally to get past the Jets. Yes, they knocked off the Falcons with a convincing victory the other night but let's be honest, the Falcons have had serious issues of their own. Hell, they lost to the Dolphins at home. And we all saw the fish get executed on national television last night. Crazy NFL. So do I like the Chargers with their penchant for playing tight games here catching 7.5 points? Yes, I do. Quite a bit. The stubborn fact is the Chargers are an impressive 12-4-1 in their last 17 road games. But, to be honest we all know the Patriots generally cover the number at home. So that basically is a wash. In the end I do think Hightower being lost is a big deal for the Patriots. Most of this selection is pure old school eye ball test. I like the energy I see out of this Chargers team right now. I know some will throw out the west coast team playing the early start angle but I think that is overrated. The Chargers also had that same scenario a couple weeks ago and won the thing outright in New York. In the end I see a game here that will likely be resolved in the final moments, like so many other Chargers games. I suspect you will be glad to have the 7.5 points in your pockets guys. Take Phillip Rivers and the Chargers here.