Vegas Butcher
MIN vs CLE +9.5
Another London game here, this time between the worst team in the league and a top-10 Vikings squad. Cleveland will be without Myles Garrett, Jason McCourty, and most likely their safety, Jabrill Peppers. The defense, which is the only semi-decent area for this team, will suffer. Offensively, the Browns will be without their best player for the remainder of the season, as Joe Thomas is done for the year. Could this 32nd ranked offense get even worse? Against an aggressive Vikings defense, it could. Offensively, Minnesota should get Diggs back, which will only improve their pass-game. Cleveland is stout against the run, ranking 2nd in the league, but they’re 26th against the pass. With potentially 2 of their 4 starters in the secondary being out, this could be a very long day for this unit. Still, London presents unique challenges for teams, and of course Minnesota is over-valued by a few points in this one. Proceed with caution. The total is very low, and riding a 3-game winning streak, this could potentially be a let-down performance for the Vikings. Lean: CLE +9.5
SF @ PHI -12.5
A West-coast team playing all the way on the East coast in the 1 PM central slot. This will actually be San Francisco’s second trip to the East Coast in the last 3 weeks, their 4th road game out of the last 5, and 5th out of the last 7. They’re also starting an overwhelmed rookie at QB. Eagles are on a 5-game winning streak, though a let-down in performance should be expected after a big win against a divisional opponent on MNF. Short week doesn’t help matters. Key injuries to Jason Peters (O-lineman) and Jordan Hicks (their top LB), don’t either. San Fran is 0-7 SU but this team is 4-3 ATS, and 3-1 ATS on the road. This line is also juiced up a few points in Eagles’ direction. Lean: SF +12.5
OAK @ BUF -2.5
The Bills are continuing to clean house, as they shipped off Dareus to the Jags this week. Even though they’re devoid of talent, the Bills are playing well this season, currently sitting with a 4-2 record. Oakland ‘saved’ their season last TNF, with a last second (actually ‘no-second’) win against KC at home. The question is, can this team go on the road, to the East Coast, and win in a tough 1 PM EST time-slot? They’ve had 10-days to rest/prepare, though unfortunately for them, couldn’t get healthier. Corners Amerson and Conley are out, and their SS Karl Joseph is doubtful. The 31st ranked pass-D would really suffer if they were playing an offense that could take advantage. Bills have virtually no pass-catchers, and their top option in the pass-game is also their top option in the run-game (Shady). Raiders’ D has a chance here. The real question is, could the defense hold up? The Bills allowed 450 yards of offense to the Bucs last week, and prior to that faced mediocre offensive teams like the Jets, Panthers, Denver, Cincy, and even Atlanta. Oakland is a top-10 offense and has the firepower to dominate this matchup. I think the fact that Beast-Mode is out, actually favors Oakland as well, as they’ll deploy two dynamic playmakers in Washington and Richard. Buffalo is without Gaines and will be missing their starting safety Poyer. Also keep in mind that this one opened at -3 Bills but by the next day dropped to -2.5, crossing a key number of 3. This is a significant move, as typically mostly ‘sharp money’ is betting these lines early. Something is telling me that the Raiders are the right side in this one. Lean: OAK +2.5
IND @ CIN -10.5
It’s hard to back a team like the Bengals as a double-digit favorite. It’s even harder, when their opponent is coming off an embarrassing shutout loss at home. Colts will play better here, but so should the Bengals, after they lost @ PIT last week. Of course Indy’s 30th ranked defense, will be without John Simon, their best defensive player. AJ Green, Joe Mixon, and Red Rocket should have a big game here. Can Brissett keep up? He got beat up against the Jags last week and Cincy’s 11th ranked defense will be a challenge on the road. I think the Bengals do have a shot to dominate here on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind that this one opened at -9 at Pinny, went up to -10, and is now trending towards potential -11. That’s a significant move here. Obviously a lot of the value is gone at the current number, but at -10 or lower, Cincy deserves a strong look. Lean: CIN -10.5
CAR @ TB -1.5
The Bucs will be without their top pass-rusher, Noah Spence, the rest of the season. To make matters worse this team will be without their top-2 CB’s for this one, as Brent Grimes and Robert McClain are out. Virtually no-pass rush and no reliable starters in the secondary for Tampa this week. This is the worst-ranked defense in the league by the way. On the other side, the Panthers are getting their best defensive player, Luke Kuechly, back for this one. His return can’t be over-stated as he’s absolutely critical to success of this unit. Both teams are looking to end their losing streaks, but to me the Panthers are a better squad. Lean: CAR +1.5
CHI @ NO -9.5
The Bears are on a two-game winning streak, one in OT @ BAL and the other one at home, where Trubisky only attempted 7 passes. Well, barring an injury, I’d bet that he’ll be attempting way more than 7 pass-attempts this week. Saints are an excellent team, especially offensively. Chicago had a huge defensive game last week, but it’s hard to maintain this level of effort from week to week. Expect the Saints to move the ball in this one. Additionally, let’s not forget that New Orleans ranks 15th defensively and 6th against the pass. Chicago has no pass-catchers, and I would expect the Saints to sell-out to stop the run. If they’re successful, Trubisky will need to win this game with his arm, and it’s pretty clear that he’s not ready to do so yet. We could be seeing a blowout in this one. Lean: NO -9.5
ATL @ NYJ +6
What’s interesting is that the off-season line here was -7 ATL. Now that everyone knows that the Falcons aren’t anywhere close to the team that went to the SuperBowl last year, the adjustment is only 1 point. Though of course the initial adjustment was much larger, as this one opened at -4/-4.5 and has now gone up to -6. Hmmm…Interesting. Remember, early bettors are typically the ‘sharp money’, so when this spread opened low, they took advantage. In any case, the question here is, are the Falcons as bad as they’ve looked the last few games and are the Jets as competitive as they’ve been so far this season? The line value is clearly with the home team in this one, though I’d feel much more confident with the off-season line of +7 than the current one. Lean: NYJ +6
LAC @ NE -7.5
What’s with all these West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in the 1 PM EST time slot this week? We have San Fran, Oakland, and the Chargers all flying cross-country this week and competing in the early games. Putting that aside, Chargers are the type of a team that should give the Pats fits. They have the 10th ranked pass-offense and going up against the 31st ranked NE defense, Chargers should be able to put up some points. I know the Patriots D has played well the last 3 weeks but that coincides with Dont’a Hightower’s return to the lineup. Well, he’s out for the year now. I expect the Patriots defense to struggle mightily once again. On the other side, Chargers posses a dominant pass-rush (ranked 5th) and a strong pass-D (ranked 8th), two components that are critical at slowing down Brady and Co. Of course their run-D is terrible, ranking 27th overall. I’d expect a run-heavy game plan from New England in this one. I believe we have a chance to see a close game in this one. Lean: LAC +7.5
HOU @ SEA -6.5
These teams have been closer in strength than many have expected, though this might not be an ideal matchup for the visitors. Watson has played great so far, but putting up a ton of points against NE, TEN, KC, and CLE isn’t as difficult, as those are all bottom-10 defenses. Against JAX (Watson didn’t start) and CIN (his first start), Texans combined for 20 points. I know Watson wasn’t much of a factor against those two opponents, but let’s see how he does against another top-10 defense, and on the road at that. Seahawks rank 5th against the pass and I find it hard to believe that Watson will be very successful in this one. Second factor favoring the Seahawks is that Houston doesn’t have much of a pass-rush. Losing Watt and Mercilus ensured that. Why is that important? Well, Seattle has one of the worst O-lines in the league, and Houston can’t get consistent pressure on Wilson, he’s going to eat them up. And of course the final factor in this one are the off-the-field distractions that Houston is going through, in particular with their owner Bob McNair. Hopkins walked out on the practice on Friday, LT Brown explained that the situation “is not over”, and the whole team is planning to do ‘something’ at Seattle, as a sign of protest. Of course they’ll all play, but this type of mental distraction can’t be good for a team trying to go into Seattle to secure a win. Lean: SEA -6.5
DAL @ WAS +2
Washington is on a short week here, after getting thoroughly outplayed by Philly on the road. Cowboys are coming off an absolute destruction of San Francisco. Naturally, we’re going to look at those two performances and lean towards Dallas. At the very least, over 70% of the bettors do. But let’s remember that Philly is one of the better teams in the league, while San Francisco is one of the three worst. Plus they had a rookie QB making his first ever start. On the season, Dallas is 3-3. Their 3 wins have come against NYG, ARZ, and SF. These are all bottom-5 teams in the league. Dallas’ 3 losses have come against DEN, LAR, and GB, all above average opponents. Well, Washington is a top-10 squad. Unfortunately for them, they’re dealing with a ton of injuries. Their O-line is in shambles, as four starters are dealing with various injuries. Their C Long, OG Scherff, and OT Nsekhe are rulled out, while Williams didn’t practice all week after re-aggravating his knee against Philly. Dallas ranks 26th overall defensively, but one thing they do well is apply pressure, ranking 9th in ASR. If they pressure Cousins, Dallas should have a good shot to win this game. And that’s partly because Washington is losing key defensive players seemingly every week. They lost their dynamic rookie Jonathan Allen last week, and now will be without an every-down LB Mason Foster the rest of the season as well. Washington’s defense will be challenged by Elliot in this one. One final factor to consider here is that it’s expected to rain on Sunday in Washington, with winds gusting up to 15-20 MPH. Conditions could be tough in this one. Lean: DAL -2
PIT @ DET +3
Another drama-filled week for the Steelers, as this time it once again involved Bryant. Naturally, he’s benched this week. Pittsburgh will take on a Lions team that is coming off their BYE. Detroit is getting Tate back, though I’m not sure how much that will matter. Lions rank 23rd offensively and they’ll be going up against the 2nd best defense in this one. With no run game whatsoever, I think it’ll be really tough for Detroit to move the ball consistently. On the other side, it’s hard to trust Roethlisberger against the 7th ranked D on the road. Detroit has been a ball-hawking unit this year, and Roethlisberger likes to turn it over with the best of them. This game should come down to who can best protect the ball. I think we’ll see a close, low-scoring grinder, with a takeaway or two being the difference. Lean: DET +3
Stephen Nover
Cowboys vs. Redskins
Play: Cowboys -130
Playing on a short week after being on the Monday night stage, as the Redskins were six days ago, is a tough spot. But things have become much tougher for Washington given its cluster injury problem in the offensive line and defense.
How bad is it for the Redskins?
Washington couldn't practice in pads once this past week. Just not enough bodies.
Dallas is a top-five NFC team. The Redskins are going to have to defeat the Cowboys minus possibly four starting offensive linemen. Already ruled out is left tackle Trent Williams, the Redskins' best offensive lineman, and center Spencer Long. Right guard Brandon Scheff is doubtful and right tackle Morgan Morse is questionable. The Cowboys have 21 sacks. Only five teams have more sacks. Demarcus Lawrence is second in the NFL in sacks with 9 1/2. David Irving has three sacks in two games since coming back from a four-game suspension.
The Redskins need to run the ball - or at least keep the threat of a run game - in order to slow down Dallas' pass rush. Washington, though, is just a mediocre running team and that was with a healthy offensive line. They don't have a star running back. It's hard not to believe the Cowboys' well-coached defense isn't going to control the line of scrimmage.
Washington also has key defensive players injured. Jonathan Allen, the team's best run-stopper, is out. So is linebacker Mason Foster. Ezekiel Elliott is off his best game of the season rushing for 174 yards and catching a 72-yard screen pass to give him three touchdowsn against the 49ers last Sunday. Elliott is running wild now knowing a six-game suspension may come at any time. I doubt the Redskins can effectively contain Elliott.
This is going to make Dak Prescott deadly in play-action. The Redskins' secondary is beat-up. Cornerbacks Josh Norman and Bashuad Breeland have been battling injuries. They are going to have a tough time keeping up with Dez Bryant.
Harry Bondi
Chargers / Patriots Over 48
Both teams are coming off outstanding defensive efforts, but our database tells us that when two teams that gave up 7 points or less the previous week meet, the over is a perfect 8-0 the last six years. Our database also tells us that when a West Coast team travels to an East Coast venue the over is a profitable 25-3 the last three season. Bottom line: Both teams defenses are not as good as they played last week, so we get some value here today. It’s a shootout in Foxboro!
Jesse Schule
Houston at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The Texans have a tough road game this week at Seattle, but instead of preparing to face one of the league's fiercest defenses, many Houston players have spent the last few days threatening to boycott the game all together. This comes after controversial comments by Texans owner Bob McNair, who said: "You can't have the inmates running the prison". So far this season we've seen a few examples of how teams have performed poorly when the players have been distracted by politics. The Panthers were blown out by the Saints in Week 3, after Ron Rivera forced the players to wait in the locker room until after the Anthem was played. A group of players demanded meetings with the owner following the game, as they felt their right to protest had been taken away. The Steelers lost to the Bears that week, and they had a similar episode as they were told to stay in the locker room, but Alejando Villaneuva made headlines when he emerged from the tunnel, standing with his hand over his heart. These kind of distractions have been toxic for several teams, and we could see the Texans come out with a half-hearted effort here in Seattle.
Will Rogers
Chargers at Patriots
Pick: Patriots -7
The set-up: The 3-4 Los Angeles Chargers will visit Foxborough on Sunday afternoon.to take on the 5-2 New England Patriots in NFL Week 8 play. The Chargers have won three straight after a 21-0 home victory over the Denver Broncos last Sunday (was the team's first home win of 2017!), LA's defense led the way, holding the Broncos to just 251 yards, 3 for 14 on 3rd down tries, registered five sacks, forced three fumbles (recovered two) and came up with an interception. As for New England, Tom Brady had been carrying the Pats all season but in last Sunday night's "Super Bowl rematch," the Pats' D bottled up Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense, which didn't get on the board until late in the fourth quarter of a 23-7 New England win.
LA Chargers: The Chargers 'celebrated their move to Los Angles by losing their first four games of the season, as veteran QB Philip Rivers threw six TD passes and four interceptions. However, Los Angeles has won three in a row since, with Rivers throwing six TDs and just one NT, in 106 pass attempts.RB Todd Gurley only had 38 yards rushing in the team's 21-0 win over Denver but in the first two of the team's three-game winning streak, had 188 rushing yards (one TD) plus 15 catches for three TDs! The Chargers average a modest 19.6 PPG (21st) but also allow only 18.7 PPG (8th).
New England: Tom Brady threw for 249 yards on 21 of 29 passing with two TDs last Sunday but it was the defense which was finally a key to a New England win in 2017 (see above). However, one continues to wonder at the 40-year-old Brady who just "keeps on keeping on," having completed 66.4% with 15 TDs and two INTs (QB rating of 108.4), as the Pats rank second in passing yards at 300.0 per game. The team's defensive numbers remain 'ugly,' as New England is still allowing more yards than any other NFL team (426.7 YPG) and more passing yards (310.3 YPG), as well. Last Sunday's strong effort has them down to allowing 23.7 PPG (23rd) but that is still over a TD more per game than the Pats allwoed in 2016 (15,6 PPG). Sunday's effort had to be a big confidence-builder but the news that standout MLB Dont'a Hightower (pectoral) is done for the season, hd to be delating. "Dont'a is a special player," OLB Kyle Van Noy told reporters. "He does a lot for this team. He's a leader of this team and the defense. We know what we have to do to fill his spot. As a unit, everyone has to step up and hold each other accountable and get on the right page."
The pick: Naturally, the first thing handicappers/bettors will note regarding this game is the Chargers’ ATS prowess as a road dog , as the team has gone 23-11-1 (67.6%) in that role since 2012). However, the Patriots have won the last three regular-season meetings with the Chargers, who are just 1-10 SU in Foxborough, including a loss in the 2007 AFC ch
SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -1½ +235 over Washington
Of the four major sports, baseball, basketball, hockey and football, hockey is the only sport in which teams get dominated and win very, very often. So, allow us to throw up some numbers. .867 to .950. That was Cam Talbot’s save % versus Braden Holtby’s last night in Edmonton. In fact, Washington was so uninspired that they didn’t even draw one penalty the entire game. With just over a minute left in the first period and the Oilers up 2-0, Talbot allowed the first of three softies. The final score read Washington 5 Edmonton 2 but we’re once again more interested in the ingredients as opposed to the results. The Caps allowed 40 shots on net again and will play the tail end of back-to-backs here for the third time this season. The first time that occurred, the Caps lost to Philadelphia, 8-2 and the second time it occurred, the Caps lost to Florida, 4-1. Out attack on the Caps is not going to stop because they got lucky in Edmonton last night. Furthermore, there is a great chance that Philip Grubauer will be in goal.
We have our issues with the Flames but this is as good a spot as any to get behind them this season. Calgary has dropped four of five so its stock is low but they’ve also played a slew of strong defensive teams over the past few games. After playing the ‘Canes, Wild, Blues, Preds and Stars, the Flames will take a big step down in class when facing the Capitals weak defense. The Flames are coming off a 2-1 home loss on Friday to Dallas to run their home losing streak to four games but there are some positive signs. Calgary has been climbing the rankings in high danger scoring chances against. They have gone from 20th to 11th in that category over its last three games. The Flames biggest problem however, has been their inability to put the puck in the net. In fact, their PDO is the third worst in the league but after facing the aforementioned string of good defenses, that problem very likely gets solved here, at least for one game. The Flames figure to be very hungry tonight and they also figure to be the better team on the ice for the full 60 minutes. That makes them worth a bet.
CAROLINA -1½ +191 over Anaheim
The Hurricanes are coming off a 2-1 loss to the Blues on Friday, which was just the second this season that they lost the shots on net battle. However, the ‘Canes truly are one of the least flawed teams in the NHL. They are second behind Edmonton in puck possession time and rank first or second in several defensive categories, which includes scoring chances against and time in their own end. Carolina hasn’t even warmed up yet. Once the ‘Canes hit their stride, they are going to be hell to deal with, as the Maple Leafs found out last week in a 6-3 loss to this team.
As much as we like the ‘Canes, this one lines up nicely to fade the Ducks, another team that looks completely out of sorts. In another misleading score last night, Anaheim fired away a lousy 20 shots on net in a 4-1 victory in Tampa Bay. Tampa’s Peter Budaj’s save percentage in that game was .810 while John Gibson’s was .969. The Ducks will now play their fourth road game in a row, their third game in four days and the tail end of back to backs. Anaheim has won three of its last four games by scores of 6-2, 6-2 and 4-1 but they were dominated in all three. The Ducks also took 16 minor penalties in those three wins and the opposition scored one time. The Anaheim Ducks have been the luckiest team in the NHL thus far. They’ve been chasing the puck all year but the results don’t reveal that. In between those three wins was an 8-3 loss in Florida. It looks like the Ducks will be forced to use their backup goaltender tonight since Gibson played last night. That backup will be either Reto Berra or Ryan Miller but more importantly, we can almost guarantee with absolute certainty that the Ducks will get badly outplayed here. Lastly, this game starts at 5:00 PM EST and the Ducks played in Tampa last night so it does not give them much time to regroup. Man, are the Ducks ripe to get beat here.
Chase Diamond
Chicago vs. New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -9.5
This game features the 3-4 Bears and the 4-2 Saints. Saints are one of the hottest teams in Football winning 4 straight the Bears are not a good road team especially on turf. Saints excel at home year in year out. I expect a big blowout here as the Saints defense has been getting better weekly and the Bears struggle to score.
Dave Price
Chicago vs. New Orleans
Play: Chicago +9.5
Everyone has been talking all week about how Mitchell Trubisky only completed four passes yet the Bears beat the Panthers 17-3 last week. Nobody wants to give this Bears team any credit. I think the more remarkable stat is that the Bears only allowed 3 points despite the fact that the Panthers possessed the ball for 2/3 of the game. That's why Trubisky was only needed for 7 pass attempts as it was just the game flow. He has had to play 3 of the best defenses in the NFL thus far in the Vikings, Ravens and Panthers. Now he gets to face one of the worst in the Saints and is capable of doing more. The Saints have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so the Bears will be able to utilize their strength which is their running game. And the Bears clearly have the better defense in this matchup. I don't think there's 9.5 points separating these two teams. This game will go right down to the wire.
Bob Balfe
Chargers +7 & Over 47
We are tracking the weather in Foxboro and it looks like the really bad weather will start after the football game. San Diego is rolling right now and looking to take advantage of a Patriots Defense that was exposed early on and now injuries will expose them once again. This team is banged up on all three levels of the defense and really will miss Donta Hightower being on the sidelines for the rest of the season. San Diego has the most accurate QB in the last decade and this team is as hot as anybody right now. New England has their own offensive weapons and it’s hard to believe they will get shut down at home, but San Diego does have the defense to keep them in this game for four quarters. I would not be shocked to see the upset. Take the Chargers and the Over.
Dodgers -145
This is shaping up to be a great series. The Dodgers are a more complete baseball team and with Kershaw on the mound this is their shot to put themselves in position to be World Series Champions. Both pitchers are awesome, but Kershaw held this team to only 3 hits and had 11 strikeouts in Game 1. This is a pitcher who you love to have in a spot like this. Take the Dodgers.
Stephen Nover
Atlanta vs. New York
Play: Falcons
OK, I get that Atlanta is having a painful Super Bowl hangover. The Falcons have lost three in a row - all to AFC East opponents. Now the Falcons draw the weakest AFC East foe, the Jets.
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Falcons. And the Jets are a good foe for them to get well against.
I don't see any advantage the Jets have in this matchup with the Falcons holding major edges at the skill position spots. I also like the Falcons' defense better than the Jets particularly with Vic Beasley back in the lineup from injury.
Matt Ryan isn't having a magical year like last season. But he's still Matt Ryan, which rates far above Josh McCown and his motley crew of below average wide receivers. The Falcons should dominate with Ryan, Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman. The line is fairly priced, too, because of the Falcons' losing streak.