Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 2nd, 2016

Sleepyj

Browns / Redskins Over 45.5

Well both teams found the offense last week...Redskins fought back in a big game Vs. Giants and pulled out a win...Browns played tough, but they discovered they can pass the ball a little bit...I look for both teams to light it up through the air...Both teams on defense are deplorable and the passing attack will come through for us...Passing defense for both teams are in the bottom 10 in the league...Wash ranks 26th and Cleveland ranks 24th....Browns haven't faced elite passing teams, but the Redskins got some talent on the outside with the WR's and TE spots...I think Washington flirts with 30+ in this game...The big key for the Browns is moving the chains on 3rd down....Well the skins 3rd down defense isn't great by any means..I'm sure it will improve in this game, but overall I don't trust the the Skins pass defense rankings 26th and stopping even the Browns on 3rd down...Cleveland QB Kessler got it going last week..he threw for about 250 yards and he will be throwing again..Don't be shocked if he great success here, but he will commit some a few INT's as well...i can see him going to the well here and getting picked off a few times...Skins run game is always a threat and this game will produce enough points from all angles..even the special teams might get involved....I still have images burned into my brain watching the Redskins special teams chasing guys all over the place on kickoff and punt returns..Don;t be shocked if one or the other breaks a few big returns to help us out here....Weather calls for some drying out in Washington for Sunday...31-23 area.

Art Aronson

Panthers vs. Falcons
Play: Panthers -3

Setting the scene: Carolina went to the Super Bowl last season, but has gotten out to a poor start so far in 2016/17, coming into Week 3 sitting at 1-2. Atlanta returns home after two straight road victories, most recently pulling away for the 45-32 win at New Orleans on Monday night. We think the “hungry” visitors are the correct call in this matchup.

The Panthers: It’s been a tough start to the year for Carolina. But with three straight divisional contests, starting with Atlanta, then Tampa Bay at home next week, followed by a game at New Orleans before their “bye,” we’re expecting the Panthers and to risk life and limb today. Also note that Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October.

The Falcons: They look primed for a letdown here after their big win over the Saints on national television. And with two tough road games on deck, including at Denver and Seattle, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” to that difficult part of its schedule.

The bottom line: Also note that Atlanta is a poor 2-9 ATS in its last 11 following a divisional contest and 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival. Consider a second look at the PANTHERS in Week 4.

Allen Eastman

Kansas City (+5) over Pittsburgh

I expect Kansas City to win this game outright. The Eagles blew Pittsburgh out last week on the road. This team might not be as good as everyone thinks they are. The Steelers defense has problems, and the Chiefs should be able to keep this game close and low scoring. Kansas City beat Pittsburgh last year, 23-13, and the Chiefs are a solid 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Steelers. Kansas City dominated a very good Jets team 24-3 last week, and this is a team that is very close to being 3-0 on the season. Alex Smith will take care of the ball. And the Chiefs defense and running game will make sure that this one comes down to the final minutes. I have Kansas City winning this one by a field goal. But I will take the points as the Chiefs improve to 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road.

Robert Ferringo

Detroit / Chicago Over 46

I absolutely like the 'over' in this matchup and I think the Bears are going to be a dead 'over' team for several weeks. Chicago's defense is a travesty and their secondary is probably the worst in football. That's bad news against a Lions passing game that has three legit weapons and a running game built on big plays in the second level. These two teams played a 37-34 shootout last October and they have gone 'over' in four of the last six meetings with a total of 45.0 or higher. Detroit's defense is not much better. They just got lit up for 34 points by the Packers last week and allowed 35 points to the Colts in Week 1. I thought the Bears offense looked more potent with Brian Hoyer under center as he is far less erratic than loser Jay Cutler. The Bears are allowing nearly 30 points per game this season (27.3 PPG) and the Lions check in 28.3 points allowed each outing. I think that both teams make it into the 20s, and this one will push over late.

Mike Rose

Denver at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay +3

Is it possible the Broncos have turned into one of the best franchises in the league? After passing all three of its tests to start the season, the resounding answer to that question is yes! The season started off with a comeback win against the Panthers in a rematch of Super Bowl 50. It then went on to beat the Colts and cover the game in dramatic fashion the following week. Denver closed as 3.5 point underdogs in their road opener against the Bengals, but a combination of Cincinnati penalties and an exceptional outing from Trevor Siemian saw the Broncos go into Paul Brown Stadium and hand the Bengals a 29-17 defeat to move to 3-0 SU and ATS for the season.

Now, better than 84% of the betting public is backing the Broncos on the road for a second straight week. With only a non-con home tilt against the Falcons lined up next week, the market likely isn't expecting Denver to overlook this week's opponent.

However, Denver has shown a knack for beating the Buccaneers but failing to cover in the team’s most recent meetings. In fact, the only game covered out of the last six dating back to 1993 came in 2012 when the Broncos won 31-23 to just barely cover the 7.5 point closing spread. I can see that scenario once again playing out in this one as well with Tampa Bay committing a poorly timed turnover with the game in hand only to allow Denver to escape the bay with a win but non-cover.

Bryan Leonard

Dallas at San Francisco
Play: Dallas -3

Surprised by the low line here as the Cowboys have clearly proven its worth this season. Dallas has virtually no home field advantage so the best time to back this team is on the road.

San Francisco shocked the world opening week for the second straight season, but like last year the squad has since played toward its talent level. The 49ers are the worst team in the league and the Cowboys are a playoff contender. Cheap line leads to a pointspread winner.

Buster Sports

Chiefs at Steelers
Play: Under 47.5

The Kansas City Chiefs come to Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Football fresh off their great defensive effort against what was supposed to be a high flying NY Jet offense. The Chiefs intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick 6 times and forced another 2 fumbles for a unbelievable 8 turnover day for the Jets. Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense did exactly what they always have done under Andy Reid. They manage the game and capitalize on the other teams mistakes which worked to perfection last Sunday. As for the Steelers they had one of those performances they would like to put behind them, in a 34 -3 blowout loss to the Eagles. We see them coming back to Steeler football in Pittsburgh tonight. For us this means some good defense and running the football. The Steelers have just what the doctor ordered to do just that, as Le’Veon Bell is back and he will help a running game that only had 29 yards last week in Philadelphia. With the Under being 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the clubs the oddsmaker has set the line at the time of this writing at 47 1/2, we believe this is only because of it being Sunday night and Buster Sports has this 2 points lower at 45 1/2. We will be on the UNDER here. Also backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 16-5 in the Steelers last 21 games in October and the fact that the Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in October. These two clubs play a lot of UNDERS in October.

Randall the Handle

THE BEST

Raiders (2-1) at Ravens (3-0)

No question that this year’s Ravens are better than the injury riddled squad that was forced to march onto the field each week last season. But don’t be fooled by Baltimore’s 3-0 start. These birds have had a lot go right for them this season, creating fortunate wins including last week’s two-point victory at shoddy 0-3 Jacksonville. Add victories against Buffalo and Cleveland and Baltimore’s unblemished mark has been attained against teams that are a combined 1-8 in this early going. Baltimore’s ground game continues to be in a drought, unable to gain 85 yards in any contest thus far. If that forces an aerial battle between Joe Flacco and Oakland’s Derek Carr, we’ll gladly go with the latter especially since we have more weaponry and we’re receiving points to boot. The Raiders have been giving up too much yardage but shootouts with the Saints and Falcons tend to pad those stats, corrected against the Titans last week. Baltimore has just one cover in past nine as home fave. Ravens have their work cut out for them here. TAKING: RAIDERS +3½

Colts (1-2) vs. Jaguars (0-3) at London, England

Plaxico Burress should be on the Jaguars. After all, no team shoots itself more in the foot than Jacksonville. If not for some late blunders, the Jags could have had wins against both Green Bay and more recently, Baltimore. While we aren’t fond of slotting this bungling Jacksonville team in our Best Bets, we have no choice when we believe that we have the better team taking points on a neutral field. Heck, it may not be that neutral as this game is being played in London, England where fans have seen the Jaguars before and where most Brits have never heard of Indianapolis. For Indy, flying over the pond for the first time lends some challenges as does familiarizing with Wembley’s porous grass surface. The Colts have a decent quarterback and reasonable receivers but after that, there is very little. Jacksonville quietly has an 8th ranked defense and some playmakers on offence. It is more than capable of handling this overrated divisional foe. TAKING: JAGUARS +2½

Saints (0-3) at Chargers (1-2)

The Saints surrender an awful lot of yards, 448 per game to be exact, ranking only ahead of Oakland. But they have the ability to stay in games as two final second losses will attest to before untimely turnovers did them in last week. This is a good spot for a bounce back. The Chargers may be favored here but that might be unjust. You can mask inefficiencies when playing AFC South teams as the Bolts have these past two weeks (Indianapolis and Jacksonville). But now they’ll face a high powered offence that they’ll need to outscore and by a margin to earn a cover. It will have to be done without San Diego’s best receiver Keenan Allen, multi-purpose RB Danny Woodhead, linebacker and defensive co-captain Manti Te’o while CB Brandon Flowers is under concussion protocol. Ouch! Sean Payton’s Saints are best when taking points, covering 9 of previous 13 when offered some. Conversely, the Chargers have just three covers in past 10 as home faves. TAKING: SAINTS +4

THE REST

Browns (0-3) at Redskins (1-2)

Seems the oddsmakers missed the boat with this one after Washington opened as a 10-point favorite before bettors flocked to the window to buy some Cleveland at an outrageous price. What??? That’s like lining up to get canned Spam simply because it’s on sale. We’ll side with bookies on this one. Somehow the Brownies were able to compete with the Dolphins last week despite having to trot out a ‘B’ roster after several front liners were sidelined. Maybe the Fish took these guys too lightly but you can bet that the Redskins won’t fall prey to that after observing tape and after getting back in NFC East race with much needed win last week. Bumbling Browns competing on road in consecutive weeks? Not happening. TAKING: REDSKINS –7½

Seahawks (2-1) at Jets (1-2)

Unless you’re the Patriots, it’s difficult to sustain greatness for an extended period of time in this league. The Seahawks are still formidable but they aren’t what they were these past few seasons nor are they feared the same way. Right now, Seattle’s defense is a decent unit but its offence is plagued by a poor front line and that won’t help hobbled QB Russell Wilson in this one. The Jets flat lined in Kansas City last week but we expect them to revive here. While the Seahawks are tinkering with their O-Line, the Jets should be able to wreak havoc up front with their daunting front seven. Reputation has the ‘Hawks favored but current conditions say the home town Jets should be. TAKING: JETS +2½

Panthers (1-2) at Falcons (2-1)

Not feeling all warm and fuzzy about this year’s Panthers. Maybe Cam Newton read too many of his headlines? Or is it the dreaded Super Bowl loser syndrome? Whatever the case, Carolina has lost two of three and now must play an Atlanta team that not only handed this NFC South foe its only regular season loss last year on this field but who happens to have a restored confidence after consecutive wins. Atlanta may not have defensive personnel to pressure Cam the same way Denver and Minnesota did but the blue print appears to be in place for others to follow. The Falcons can rattle Newton while their high octane offence puts enough points on the board to keep this one interesting. TAKING: FALCONS +3

Lions (1-2) at Bears (0-3)

Difficult to side with a beat up Bears team that has just one victory in past 12 games as hosts and is averaging just 15 points per game this season. It appears that journeyman QB Brian Hoyer will start again for the injured Jay Cutler and that too doesn’t evoke supportive behavior. The Lions are averaging more than 400 yards of offence per game and it’s not like this Chicago defense can prevent similar results as the Bears are void of a pass rush with only four sacks in first three games, suiting Matthew Stafford just fine. The Leos have dominated this series lately, winning six straight and if there is reason that such a streak is halted on this day, we simply aren’t seeing it. TAKING: LIONS –2½

Titans (1-2) at Texans (2-1)

The Titans have hung tough in all their games so far and they certainly won’t lack motivation here as a victory over host Texans would have Tennessee tied atop the shabby AFC South. Titans should be sick of being pushed around by this foe, having lost seven of previous eight including both last year that saw Tennessee score just six points per game. Houston relies on defense to win games but its best player and team leader, J.J. Watt has gone down with a back injury. That will put extra pressure on an offence averaging just 14 points per game this season to up its game. That might be easier said than done against an improved Titans defense. Expect a low scoring, closely fought contest. TAKING: TITANS +5

Broncos (3-0) at Buccaneers (1-2)

No hangover here, folks. Denver continues to manhandle all comers and today’s opponent appears to be a pushover. However, this is the NFL which commonly stands for No Free Lunch. And this one has a bad stench to it. These Broncos have won eight straight games dating back to last year, including playoffs and Super Bowl. Denver’s defense is ferocious and if last week was any indication, the offence is catching up. The Bucs scare no one. Young QB Jameis Winston keeps taking steps forward only to be followed by same amount back. While facing the Orange’s strong defense is invaluable experience, expecting Winston to outsmart it is a reach. Still, oddsmakers are rarely fooled and the short price is almost irresistible bait. We’re not going to bite. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3

Cowboys (2-1) at 49ers (1-2)

Niners happy to be home after playing at Carolina and Seattle the past two weeks. Still, not anxious to side with a Blaine Gabbert led team against a Cowboys squad that has proven to be a tough out. Dallas’ only loss was by a single point vs. rival Giants. QB Dak Prescott has shown surprising poise and maturity for a rookie and has not thrown a pick yet. He’s getting plenty of support from rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott who clearly got over his Week 1 jitters. Elliott’s 274 rushing yards has him tied for second in league while 71 carries places him third overall. Dallas will be without star WR Dez Bryant but still possess enough on both sides of ball to handle this host. TAKING: DALLAS –2

Rams (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)

After being shutout in their opener, the Rams reeled off a pair of wins. Things are suddenly looking up. LA finds itself atop the unexpectedly mediocre NFC West, with a chance to open up some room on this division rival. Yeah, right. We’ll give the Cards a mulligan in last week’s dud at Buffalo. You can bet coach Bruce Arians will not be granting anything close. His team has too much talent and too much at stake right now to let this one slip through the cracks. The Rams bring an offence that is void of talent other than RB Todd Gurley. Expect Arizona to put eight in the box and allow dreadful QB Case Keenum to try and beat them. That’s not going to materialize. TAKING: CARDINALS –7½

Chiefs (2-1) at Steelers (2-1)

Seems to be feast or famine for Steelers in this young season after a pair of decisive wins before being thumped at Philadelphia last week. But the last game is what concerns us most. We knew Pittsburgh’s secondary was a suspect group and rookie Carson Wentz exposed it for all to see after going 23 of 31 for 301 yards, 2 TD’s, 0 interceptions. While KC pivot Alex Smith isn’t exactly your gun slinging QB, he’s savvy enough to find the same holes that Wentz did against the Steelers 27th ranked pass defense, allowing an alarming 332 yards per game. It won’t help Pitt that LB Ryan Shazier (knee) is unlikely to play. Happy to take any points with better defensive team against what might be overhyped home side. TAKING: CHIEFS +4½

Giants (2-1) at Vikings (3-0)

This is only the second time in Minnesota’s previous 20 games that they are being asked to give away four or more points. The first time was on a Sunday night this past December when spotting 7-points to none other than these Giants. That game ended in a 49-17 drubbing of the G-Men, the Vikes dominating throughout. Even though Minny has not lost a regular season game since, the line here has been reduced. What gives? Are the Giants that much better? They slipped by the winless Saints two weeks ago, scoring just 16 points against New Orleans’ putrid defense before losing to the then winless Redskins last Sunday. Meanwhile, Minny 16-2 versus spread past 18 but the marketplace continues to undervalue this very good team. That’s fine, we’ll just keep cashing tickets. TAKING: VIKINGS –5

BIG Al

Dallas vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

After shutting out the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, the 49ers’ defense has sprung some leaks, and has given up 46 and 37 points the past two weeks. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the defensively-challenged 49ers, but consider that home underdogs are 63.4% ATS off a loss in which they failed to cover by more than a touchdown, if they gave up 37+ points in that defeat, and their opponent is off a straight-up win. San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985.

DAVE COKIN

BROWNS AT REDSKINS
PLAY: BROWNS +7.5

There’s nothing even remotely surprising about Cleveland being 0-3 out of the gate. The Browns were the consensus pick to be the worst team in the NFL prior to the season, and they were supposed to be 0-3 at this point.

But upon closer examination, this Cleveland team is actually very close to being 2-1. They had a legit chance to beat the Ravens in Week Two, and they certainly were good enough to get a win at Miami last week.

In other words, maybe this team isn’t the pushover almost everyone anticipated they would be. I suppose the argument can be made that the Browns are being taken lightly by their opponents. But I think it’s accurate to submit this team is playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder and I don’t expect the effort to be diminished off the tough OT loss last week to the Dolphins.

In matching up the Browns and Redskins, there’s a pretty good case to be made that there’s not a huge difference between these two teams when comparing the respective offenses and defenses. I’d give Washington the edge on the offensive side, but the Redskins have a very shaky defense, and the numbers through the first three weeks actually give the Browns a decent advantage as far as the two stop units are concerned.

The one glaring weakness for Cleveland has been on special teams. There’s just no way to look at that aspect of the Browns with rose colored glasses. It’s my biggest concern heading into this game, as I am definitely worried about Washington taking advantage of another Cleveland blunder in what is so often an overlooked segment of the typical game.

But special teams worries or not, I don’t see the Redskins being worthy of laying more than a touchdown here. Washington is off two very intense divisional clashes vs. the Cowboys and Giants and I consider this to be a potential letdown spot. The Browns are playing hungry and in spite of their obvious limitations, they’re proving to be competitive. Getting more than a TD, I’ll be backing the Browns plus the points on Sunday.

Vegas Butcher

IND vs JAX +2.5

This game is in London FYI. Colts rank 25th defensively against the run, and Gus Bradley has been telling reports that he’s going to emphasize the run game more. The issue in the first 3 weeks was that Jags faced off against GB (#1 run D) and BAL (#3 run D), as well as SD (#23 run D) but that game was played on the West Coast in a tough travel spot for the Jags. I think this is the first game of the season when they’re facing a horrible run defense without any travel issues hindering them. Sure they must go to London, but so do the Colts. In addition, this is the worst pass defense they’ll be facing so far this season as well, as IND ranks 29th. If this Jacksonville offense ever gets going, this is the game to do it. The Colts are coming off a comeback win last week against San Diego. Without Moncrief and with Dorsett getting injured in practice, Luck won’t have his full group of healthy pass-catchers at his disposal. Jacksonville ranks 15th in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate %), and could very well have some success rushing the passer in this one. I think it’s also important to note that this is Jacksonville’s 4th straight year playing a game in London, so the players are pretty comfortable with this trip. It’s Indy’s 1st ever. Could be a factor. My numbers don’t show these teams to be very different from one another so the value has to go to the underdog. Lean: JAX +2.5

CLE @ WAS -7.5

The line was -7.5 in the pre-season so this tells you that RGIII’s absence is totally insignificant. He truly is a replacement level QB at this point of his career. In any case, Kessler isn’t any better as he registered a -27% DVOA and 62 QBR (would rank about 25th) against a Miami team that might have the worst secondary in the league. If Washington could stick Norman on Pryor, I think Cleveland would be in real trouble as moving the ball would be extremely difficult. Washington isn’t doing that though, which is a surprise, though Norman’s height could be the issue. Regardless, trusting Kessler on the road for the 2nd consecutive time isn’t easy. One advantage Cleveland does have is with their run-game. Washington ranks 32nd defending the run while Cleveland is 4th in running efficiency. Of course Washington knows this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sell out to stop the run and force Kessler to make plays. That’d be my approach. If that’s the case, it’ll be up to Kessler to make plays of course. Remember, Washington lost starting safety DeAngelo Hall for the year and starting corner Bashaud Breeland will sit this one out as well. Even with all these injuries, it’s hard to see Kessler make enough plays to keep this one within one score. Lean: WAS -7.5

BUF @ NE -7.5

Pre-season spread on this game was -7 Pats. Remember, that’s before Brady was declared officially out. Brady is worth about 6-6.5 points, yet, this line is actually higher. Interesting. Throw in the fact that Garoppolo is going to play with a shoulder injury, and it’s even more interesting that it’s over a TD. Last year the Bills lost to NE twice by a single score (7 and 8 ) each time. You know Rex Ryan is licking his chops to grab a win against Belichick as a Bills HC, and without Brady in the lineup, this is his best chance yet. I don’t buy the fact that Bills are in a let-down spot after that Arizona win last week, as they’ve been competitive all season long (both losses were by one score). And I think this one should be a pretty competitive game. I know that Watkins is on IR, which is a huge loss, but he didn’t play last week either and Buffalo proceeded to wallop Arizona. New England hasn’t been that stout defensively, especially against the run, so expect the Bills to attack this D via the ground. Finally, let’s not forget that Garoppolo is one hard hit away from being re-injured. Buffalo ranks top-10 in ASR% and I expect this team to really go after him. Shut down the run, limit big plays (not sure Garoppolo can even throw deep with that shoulder), and pressure the QB. Bills can definitely game-plan to get the job done here and if Ryan is truly as good as he thinks he is, this is a perfect scenario for him to pull off an upset. Lean: BUF +7.5

SEA @ NYJ +1

This one opened at -2.5 SEA and is now trending towards -1. The public is actually more on the Jets (55%) than on the Seahawks (45%), which is a bit surprising. The Seahawks have started out really slowly but they opened things up last week and showed everyone that they’re a force to be reckoned with. To me this is still the best team in the league. Now, for a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast and playing the early game is never easy. But when one team is clearly superior to the other one, this factor isn’t as pronounced from my perspective. And I think there’s a big difference in overall talent here. Jets rank 31st in passing offense and 30th in pass D. If a team is unable to neither pass the ball effectively nor defend the pass, they should automatically be considered one of the worst teams in the league. NFL is a passing league, and passing the ball and defending the pass are the most critical aspects of the game. Seattle, with their #1 ranked D, should be able to stop Forte, take away Marshall, and force the Jets into some really tough spots on offense. Remember, Decker is out. Offensively, Seattle is not the same with Wilson dealing with some leg issues. But even if he’s not able to scramble effectively, this is still one of the most accurate QB’s in the league. With Revis playing at a replacement level, and the rest of this Jets pass D being mediocre, expect a number of big plays from the Seahawks. Baldwin, Kearse, and big-play receiver Lockett could all have big games. Tough scheduling spot for Seattle but the quality of their team should be enough for a close win. Lean: SEA -1.5

CAR @ ATL +3

In the off-season this line was +3.5, so there’s some adjustment here after Atlanta’s “hot” showing the last few weeks. Of course when you’re facing OAK and NO, 29th and 30th ranked defenses, most teams will look ‘hot’. Let’s see how the Falcons fare against a top-10 defensive squad. Atlanta is playing on short-week (MNF @ NO) and facing a Panthers team that is in a ‘bounce back’ spot after a loss to Minnesota at home. Cam Newton and Co. go from facing the league’s 3rd ranked D, to 32nd in ATL. Things should be much easier offensively for the Panthers. Overall, I actually think this is a tough spot for the Falcons. They’re coming off two huge road wins, and this is a bit of a let-down spot. Matt Ryan will finally face a real defense, and if history is any indication, he is more likely to struggle than not. Lean: CAR -3

DET @ CHI +3

The Bears were -1.5 in the off-season in this matchup, so this is a 4.5 point swing. Is Hoyer really that much worse than Cutler? Is Howard worse than Langford? And at this point, does it really matter if Jeffery plays? Hoyer was rusty last week but he played much better in the 2nd half against Dallas. Expect him to be better in his second start. Howard is actually a huge upgrade over Langford. This kid can play and some injury issues in college was part of the reason why he fell to the 5th round in the draft. This is an NFL type of a RB and I expect him to dominate a Lions team that is very soft up the middle against the run. And as far as Jeffery, he’s a difference maker when he’s on the field, but he’s missed so many games over the last few seasons that I don’t think it really matters if he suits up. Hoyer will utilize the quick passing game and hand the ball off to Howard a ton, which should limit Jeffery’s impact even if he plays. Finally, it’s not often you see a team with the 31st ranked defense as a road favorite. But that’s exactly the spot Detroit is in. They’re still without Levy and Ansah, two of their top-3 defenders, so don’t expect improvements on that end here. I expect the Bears to play better than they’ve shown all year, especially on the offensive end, and actually control the flow of this one. Lean: CHI +3

TEN @ HOU -4.5

Off an embarrassing and humbling defeat to the Patriots, Houston has had 10-days to prepare for this one. Of course the big story here is that JJ Watt is out for the year, which should drastically downgrade this Texans D. The team ranks 32nd offensively, 31st on special-teams, and 8th defensively, though that’s with Watt underperforming of course. Going up against a mediocre Titans offense expect a strong showing from the D in this one. Of course, Titans D should have success as well as they’re facing the worst ranked offense in the league. Yes, as many ‘playmakers’ as Houston has, they rank 29th via the pass and 31st via the run on the season. Osweiler has been a disaster and I’m not sure 10 days is enough time to change that after a full off-season to work on his game. Tennessee played poorly last week but this is still a team that should have beaten the Vikings and did beat the Lions on the road. If they can minimize turnovers, they should be in this one till the end. Lean: TEN +4.5

OAK @ BAL -4

Ravens are 3-0 but they haven’t really been very impressive. Their 3 wins are by a combined 13 points (a little over 4 PPG) against three teams that are 1-8 on the season (BUF, CLE, JAX). This is a team with a top-10 defense and a bottom-6 offense. I think the Ravens are over-valued in this one, but my concern is that the Raiders are once again playing the early game in the eastern time zone. This time they have to travel even further, all the way to the East Coast (played in Nashville last week). Tough spot for them even though the value is clearly on the Raiders. Lean: OAK +4

DEN @ TB +3

I think it’s important to not get too caught up in Siemian’s performance last week. This is still a QB who was selected in the 7th round and wasn’t even a great college player. Second straight game on the road should provide a much tougher test here. Tampa is playing their second straight at home, and coming off a home-loss, this is a bounce-back spot for them. Expect a stronger effort than they’ve shown last week. Bucs D is poor against the pass but 11th against the run. Take away CJ Anderson and force Semian to once again make plays should be the game-plan. On the other side, Koetter promised to utilize a much more balanced attack going forward. With Denver only 30th against the run, there’s no better week to start than this Sunday. Home underdog has value here IMO. Lean: TB +3

DAL @ SF +2

A rookie QB favored on the road in the NFL. You just don’t see it that often. Let’s not forget that San Fran shut out the Rams 28-0 at home, before proceeding to lose two on the road @ CAR and @ SEA, the two teams that met one another in the NFC Championship game last year. There’s still a lot of unknown with this squad but what we do know is that they rank top-10 defensively and had a tremendous showing on their home field already this year. Prescott has played well for Dallas, but he’ll be without Dez Bryant, and thus without his big-play receiver. Putting together long scoring drives is much harder in a hostile environment on the road than it is in the comforts of your own home turn. This line was +3 in the off-season, but that was with Romo at QB. Prescott is playing at a high level, but this will not be an easy matchup for him, especially away from home. Lean: SF +2

NO @ SD -3.5

Brees coming “home” is enticing, but with the Saints on a short week and playing abysmally on defense, it’s really hard to back them on the road. The Chargers are the right side here most likely but it’s not easy to lay over a FG. Lean: SD -3.5

LAR @ ARZ -8

The Cardinals were -7 in the off-season in this matchup, so the over-inflation indicates that the bookmakers expect a strong bounce-back from the Cards. They lost in week 1 and came back in week 2 to destroy the Bucs at home. Will we see a similar result here after that embarrassing showing in Buffalo? We very well could. Rams are horrific offensively and with Peterson taking away one side of the field, it’s hard to see this offense have success against the Cards. It’s even harder if Britt doesn’t suit up, as he got injured in practice on Friday. Hard to see Case Keenum lead the Rams to victory on the road in two consecutive weeks and from my perspective this game could be a blow-out. Lean: ARZ -8

Rob Vinciletti

Browns vs. Redskins
Play: Browns +7½

Classic flat spot for Washington and favorites in game 4 off their first win as a dog have failed to cover 16 of 17 the last 36 years in their next game. Teams in Game 4 off first win that had less than 500 yards on offense have never covered. The Skins are 0-16 to the spread at -3.5 or more off a road game vs a team that forces less than 5 punts. With the big road win at NY we will look for a classic win and no cover for the favorite.

Scott Spreitzer

Raiders vs. Ravens
Play: Raiders +4

No passing game, no ground game, and they average just 19 ppg. That's the Baltimore Ravens' offense in a nutshell. Baltimore has certainly enjoyed the luck factor in 2016, including last week's win over Jacksonville. The Ravens have won three games in as many weeks by a grand total of just 13 points and their biggest lead in any game has been 10 points. This week, Oakland brings the best offense the Ravens will have seen to date. The Raiders are 8th in yards passing per game and they're 2nd in the NFL in both yards rushing per game and total yards per contest. Yes, Oakland's defensive numbers don't look too hot, but I don't believe the Ravens' "attack" will be able to take advantage. Oakland enters having covered five straight road games, while the Ravens are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 at home. Finally, I believe the line is a bit high due in part to the NFL myth regarding west coast teams playing their second straight game on the east coast.

Sean Murphy

Broncos -3

I don't believe the Broncos undefeated run comes to an end in Tampa on Sunday afternoon.

Denver certainly wasn't a favorite of bettors' entering the new season, despite coming off a Super Bowl title. Now that it's evident the Broncos aren't going to take a step back, bettors are lining up to support them. I don't think it's the wrong move - not this week anyway.

The Bucs are coming off a tough home loss to the Rams last week, giving up a whopping 37 points in the process. I do expect the Tampa Bay defense to settle down a bit this Sunday and keep the Broncos offense in check for stretches. However, I don't believe it will be enough.

Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston has received a lot of praise already this season despite the fact that the Bucs have won only one of three games. I'm not sure all of that praise is warranted. He can't be dropping back to pass 50+ times every week, and will undoubtedly pay the price if such a scenario unfolds against an elite Broncos defense on Sunday.

Denver has the talent edge on the field in this one, but I also feel it has a decisive coaching edge and certainly won't look past the Bucs.