Marc Lawrence
Seahawks vs. Jets
Play: Jets +2½
Edges - Jets: 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as a host versus NFC West opponents; and 7-1 ATS home off non-division foe before back-to-back away games. Seahawks: 1-8 ATS away off division games when facing an AFC opponent; and 1-3 ATS last four visits here. With New York head coach Todd Bowles 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog, we recommend a 1* playing the Jets.
Jack Jones
Arizona Cardinals -7.5
The advance line on this game was Arizona -10.5. But after the Cardinals played terrible in an 18-33 road loss to the Bills, and the Rams beat the Bucs 37-32 on the road, this line has now been bet down to 7.5. It's a classic overreaction from last week's results.
The Cardinals are still one of the best teams in the NFL. They gave the game away last week against the Bills by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Bills 348 to 296 for the game.
I really liked what I saw from the Cardinals in Week 2 when they were bouncing back from a 21-23 loss to the Patriots. They came back and throttled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a final of 40-7 at home. I look for them to take out their frustrations on the Rams this week as well.
Yes, the Rams scored 37 points against the Bucs last week, but their offense isn't fixed. They only managed 3120 total yards against the Bucs, which usually wouldn't equate to 37 points. Remember, they had scored a combined nine points in their first two games without scoring a touchdown.
The Rams still have the worst offense in the NFL. They are averaging 15.3 points and a league-low 262.7 yards pr game on the season. They simply do not have the firepower to keep up with the Cardinals, who are putting up 26.3 points and 369 yards per game.
This Rams defense isn't all that special either as it is allowing 366 yards per game. The Cardinals still have a great defense as they are giving up only 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play. The Rams are getting outgained by 103.3 yards per game on the season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
Plays against road teams (LA RAMS) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season are 61-30 (67%) ATS since 1983. Los Angeles is clearly overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Seahawks and Bucs. It's time to sell high on the Rams.
The Cardinals are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss. Arizona is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Los Angeles.
Bill Biles
Chiefs vs. Steelers
Play: Steelers -4.5
The Steelers can not wait to get back on the field after the embarrassing loss to the Eagles last week. This time they are at home, and they are getting one of the best players in the league back from suspension in Leveon Bell. Look for the Steelers to play a solid football game and win this one by a touchdown or more.
Mike Lundin
Seahawks vs. Jets
Play: Under 40
The New York Jets enter the game with a 1-2 record while averaging 20.7 points per game. They did however manage just a field goal and turned the ball over eight times(!) in last week's 24-3 loss at Kansas City. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six interceptions and he has seven INTs on the season, considerably more than his three touchdown passes.
The Seahawks are 2-1 with both wins coming at home. They struggled big time in a 9-3 loss at LA in Week 2 but bounced back with a 37-18 rout against the Niners last week where they held SF to 254 total yardage and 12 first downs. We can note that the under is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games following a straight up win of more than 14 points and 12-4 in their last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game (SF had 119 passing yards last game).
Both teams are coming into this contest banged up on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle's star QB Russell Wilson is battling an ankle injury and suffered a MCL sprain on top of that in the last game. New York meanwhile has issues with its receiving corps as Eric Decker (who leads the team with 194 yards receiving) might sit out with a shoulder injury and Brandon Marshall has been impeded with a knee sprain. It will be tough for Fitzpatrick to bounce back from the worst performance of his career under those circumstances.
Yes, the under is the "square bet" and we've seen the line for the total drop a bit from the opener, but I still think there's value betting on this contest to go under the total.
Brandon Shively
Raiders vs. Ravens
Play: Ravens -3
This is a tough spot for the Raiders who have to travel back to the East Coast for another week which is a very hard challenge after playing at Tennessee last week. A West Coast team playing on the East Coast is always a tough task due to the early start time on the East Coast. This game actually mark’s the Raider’s 3rd East coast road game in the first 4 weeks and I think it’s too much to overcomes against a Ravens squad that is a ‘mission’ team this year and are playing today’s game looking for revenge from last year’s 37-33 loss at Oakland. Despite losing, the Ravens outgained the Raiders by 45 yards. The last time the Ravens played the Raiders at home was in 2012 (-9.5 point favorite) and the Ravens won 55-20. Oakland has been outgained in all 3 games this season, which is another red flag and reason to back the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore hasn’t given up more than 20 points in their first 3 games. They dominated the Bills in Week 1 at home and get the addition of Elvis Dumervil back at linebacker I see this improved defense leading the way again. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed and they already have 5 interceptions. Look for them to control this game and cruise to a win with a final score in the 28-20 range.
Michael Alexander
Browns vs. Redskins
Play: Browns +7½
Boy, what a show this would have been if RG3 was not hurt, as the brows roll into Washington to take on the Redskins. Washington is coming off a close 2 point road win over the Giants, despite a 457-403 yard deficit. The win last week now has the underdog 9-1 in the last 10 Washington games. In addition, Washington is coming off two division games in a row. Last week Cleveland QB Kessler was 21 of 33 so maybe the Browns might have finally found their quarterback? They just barely lost to Miami as they missed a last minute game winning field goal. Washington QB, Cousins also looks like he got it going last week as he had a 44 and 55 yard touchdown passes in quick fashion. However, I believe that being favored by this high a number is a bit too much to ask them to cover.
Teddy Covers
Bills vs. Patriots
Play: Bills +7½
Teddy enters the weekend riding a smoking’ hot 32-15 (68%) all sports run. He is hitting 73% in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season, picking up right where he left off during last year's epic 56-27 (67%) campaign; making big $$ for himself and his clients RIGHT NOW! The Patriots have survived the Tom Brady suspension pretty darn well, going 3-0 SU and ATS without their four time Super Bowl winning QB. But with Brady on the way back next week, facing a divisional rival with a real chip on their shoulder, I’m expecting the Patriots to be tested on Sunday in a clear flat spot for the home favorite.
New England doesn’t have a healthy quarterback right now. Jimmy Garappolo has been upgraded to probable, but he’s dealing with consistent pain from his shoulder injury. Jacoby Brissett has a bad thumb, and if the rookie third stringer gets playing time here, it’s probably good news for Buffalo backers.
And the Pats are an overvalued commodity this week. Think about their season. They started with an upset win over Arizona, devalued now because Arizona hasn’t looked anything like the elite squad they were last year in early season play. The Pats nearly blew a big lead against Miami, which looks worse now because the Dolphins have looked pretty awful since. And their blowout against the Texans was certainly aided by the tough travel spot for the road team with a young QB on a short week.
Yet the markets are viewing New England like those three wins were as dominant as could be, against elite competition. They weren’t. And when a very public team like the Patriots go 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS to open the season, the markets force bettors to lay a premium to back New England.
New England’s national TV games were both double digit pointspread covers (Arizona and Houston), but the Bills national TV game was a bad home loss to the Jets, another key piece of the ‘added value on Buffalo’ piece of the equation. And the markets love Belichick and hate Rex Ryan; yet another factor inflating this pointspread by a notch or two.
Five of the last seven meetings between these two teams have been one score games. The Bills gave the Pats fits in both meetings last year. The Bills offense has gotten untracked, hanging 64 points on two solid defensive foes over the past two weeks, including their ’save our season’ win against Arizona last Sunday. And the Bills powerful defensive line is poised to put pressure on Garappolo, forcing a young QB into mistakes, the same way they forced an elite QB into numerous mistakes last week. I’m taking the points, but I’ve got a percentage of my personal wager on the moneylline — Buffalo is live to pull off the upset.
Chip Chirimbes
Panthers vs. Falcons
Play: Falcons +3
This may be the 'gaff' game of the week where the favorite wins but falls short of covering the spread. Most would expect Carolina to bounce back from their poor performance last week when hosting the Vikings where Cam Newton was sacked eight times and threw three interceptions. The going should not as tough here but the Panthers have a target on their backs and the Falcons are playing without pressure.
Jimmy Boyd
Chiefs/Steelers Over 47
I think we are going to see a high-scoring game to close out Sunday’s action in Week 4. I look for both offenses to have a lot of success in this game and it should have them combining for 50+ points.
Kansas City’s defense is getting a lot of love after holding the Jets to just 3-points. Turnovers played a big part of that. They had 3 interceptions in the end zone. The defense also benefited from playing at home. The crowd at Arrowhead is one of the loudest in the league and they feed off that energy.
The Jets could have just as easily scored touchdowns on those interceptions in the end zone. I trust Ben Roethlisberger a lot more than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Especially, at home against a Chiefs defense that is struggling to sack the quarterback. Keep in mind Philip Rivers picked apart this defense before losing star wide out Keenan Allen in Week 1.
Pittsburgh will also be getting back a huge weapon on offense. Star running back Le’Veon Bell is back from suspension. While DeAngelo Williams filled in nicely, he’s not the same player. Bell makes the Steelers so much harder to defend. I could easily see them scoring 30+ points in this game.
The Chiefs offense hasn’t looked great, but I love this matchup for them. Pittsburgh is basically playing a prevent defense and forcing teams to throw it short. That’s exactly what the Chiefs offense wants to do.
Keep in mind that the Eagles run a very similar offense to the Chiefs. Philadelphia’s new head coach Doug Pedereson was the offensive coordinator last year with KC. Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz reminds me a lot of Alex Smith. His favorite target against the Steelers was running back Darren Sproles. He connected with Sproles 6 times for 128 yards.
There’s also a good chance the Chiefs could be getting back star running back Jamaal Charles. He’s been close to returning the past couple weeks. If he plays, he will have a field day catching passes out of the backfield. If he doesn’t Spencer Ware will have a field day. Ware already has 10 catches for 185 yards on the season.
OVER is 27-13 in Steelers last 40 games against teams allowing 17 or less points/game. We also find a strong system backing the OVER. In the last 3 seasons, the OVER is 20-9 (69%) in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 with a road team that is outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 or less points in the 1st half of their last game.
Scott Rickenbach
Panthers vs. Falcons
Play: Falcons +3
This is a big revenge game for Carolina as the Falcons ended the Panthers unbeaten season late last year. However, the fact is that Cam Newton certainly doesn't seem "right" yet this season. Yes he had a big game against the 49'ers but dominating San Francisco's D isn't necessarily saying much. In the season opener he battled with a tough defense (Denver) but still did not impress enough in a game where the Broncos rookie QB tried to give it to the Panthers and yet Carolina still lost. Then, last week against Minnesota, Newton was running for his life and got sacked throughout the game and also threw three picks. The Falcons pass rush certainly isn't the Vikings pass rush but Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn is a defensive-minded coach and you can bet he'll have his team ready to attack again in this one just like they did in the win over Carolina late last season. Yes, the Falcons are off of a short week but they are actually 7-1 ATS when off of a Monday Night game. Also, the Panthers are 0-4 ATS when they are a favorite of 3 or more points before a Monday Night game and they have the Buccaneers on MNF on deck. I respect Carolina's defense but this will be the toughest offense they've seen this season and QB Matt Ryan and company are rolling right now and I expect that to continue at home in a big divisional game.
Frank Jordan
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Indianapolis Colts -2
The Colts are 1-2 on the year with the win coming last time out over San Diego 26-22 after a late TD score from Luck to Hilton. The Colts had a tough luck loss in week one to Detroit 39-35 and just got beat by a better team in week two to the Broncos on the road. Jacksonville came out of the gates and played Green Bay tough before dropping the game by four, then went to San Diego and got smoked 24 points and returned home to take on the Ravens, but fell short losing by two. Last year these two teams played an interesting two games with the Colts winning a week four match up by three in overtime and Jacksonville winning later in the season by a big margin 51-16 with three TDs in the third and 4th quarters to outscore Indy 42-3. This game will come down to the quarterback play. Bortles has had five TD this season one in week one and two each of the last two weeks, but the interceptions have increased each week with 1 in week 1 and 2 in week 2 and 3 in week 3, so for Jacksonville to succeed Bortles needs to have more TD passes than interceptions. Luck had a great week one with four TD passes and no interceptions along with 385 yards, but Detroit just had the ball last to score, week two one TD pass one interception however only 197 yards and week three Luck had one TD pass one interception, but threw for over 300 yards the Colts had two rushing TDs in picking up their first win. Look for Luck to have his third 300 yard game of the season as the Colts even up their record at 2-2 before a week 5 match up with the Bears.
Bruce Marshall
Panthers at Falcons
Pick: Falcons
Perhaps getting away from Charlotte and its myriad distractions might be a tonic for the Pan-thas after Sunday's sloppy home loss vs. Vikes. Can't dismiss the possibility Cam Newton was feeling extra pressure as team spokesman, as he was out of sorts (3 picks). Carolina is also not the first team to be afflicted by the dreaded "Super Bowl loser" syndrome, as the team vibe is definitely not yet like 2015. Falcons (who won at home vs. Super Bowl-bound Panthers LY) were still to play on Monday at New Orleans as we went to press. But Atlanta's "O" showed lots of life in recent win at Oakland, where Matt Ryan posted his highest passer rating (131.5) in many moons.
Rocketman
Oakland @ Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -3.5
The Oakland Raiders travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Oakland is 2-1 SU overall this year while Baltimore comes in with a 3-0 SU overall record on the season. Oakland is allowing 340 yards per game passing and 476 total yards per game this season. Baltimore is averaging 242 yards per game passing this season. Baltimore is allowing only 86 yards per game on the ground this year, 168.3 yards per game passing and 254.3 total yards per game on the season. Oakland is allowing 26.3 points per game overall this year. Baltimore is allowing only 14.7 points per game overall this year and 7 points per game at home this season. Baltimore is 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs Oakland last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore today!
Frank Sawyer
Colts vs. Jaguars
Play: Under 49½
Take Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis (1-2) earned their first win this season with their 26-22 win over San Diego last week. The Colts have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. And while Andrew Luck passed 331 yards in that contest, the Colts have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Jacksonville (0-3) comes off a 19-17 loss to Baltimore last week. The Jaguars have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
Joseph D'Amico
Saints vs. Chargers
Play: Over 53
Drew Brees is making his first return to QUALCOMM Stadium since his 2005 trade. The QB leads the #1 passing attack in the NFL, with an offense averaging 26.3 PPG. Philip Rivers heads up a San Diego offense posting over 29.0 PPG. The big story here is that both defenses are doormats, truly susceptible to the pass. The L4 meetings in this series has gone OVER the Total and this match up won't be any different.