Brandon Lee
Cubs -1.5 -145
I'll take the Cubs on the run line in Sunday's regular season finale against the Reds. I know Chicago has everything wrapped up, but I think this team is going to want something positive to build on going into the postseason. They certainly have the starter on the mound to not only win, but win big. The Cubs will hand the ball to Cy Young favorite Kyle Hendricks, who has been absolutely sensational this season. Hendricks is 16-8 with a 1.97 ERA in 29 starts and has only got better as the season has went along. He comes in with a 1.35 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 10 straight starts. While he keeps the Reds offense in check, Chicago's offense should be able to put up a big number here against Cincinnati starter Robert Stephenson, who has an ugly 6.27 ERA and 1.545 ERA in 7 starts this season. Not to mention he's averaging just 4.7 innings per start and the Reds have a team bullpen ERA of 5.08.
3G-Sports
Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins -7.5
Washington is coming off a great game vs the Giants last week. And Kirk Cousins is still keeping the Skins above water for now. Cleveland just cannot defend when teams decide they want to pass the ball all over the field. The Cleveland Browns drives have stalled too many times - too many 3 and outs. Getting only 52 first downs though the beginning of the season. They don't always have the identity of going for the big play when it presents itself - and can never string together drives that tires out defenses. Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record Washington needs this game to even up their record at 2-2 and playing at home and versus the Browns I expect a double digit win for the SKINS.
Mike Anthony
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans -4.5
Houston has a team that wins games they sometimes didn't win in the past. Lamar Miller has picked up the ability to run the ball in a way that has truly helped in their production on the field. Although last week they laid an egg, Houston is a team on a mission - even with their huge injuries on the defensive side of the ball, they still have a pretty good LB crew and also some excellent receivers. Tennessee has to play almost flawless to win this game, on the road. Rishard Matthews can't drop passes, and their Oline has to keep players out of their backfield - this is going to be super hard to do. Tennessee gave up 7 turnovers over the first 3 games so far - same story Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Look for the TEXANS to bounce back as they had 10 days to prepare for this game and they are better than they showed vs the Pats last Thursday.
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The Bears are one of four remaining winless NFL teams heading into Week 4, joining Cleveland, Jacksonville and New Orleans. The 1-2 Lions haven’t fared much better but Detroit has been the way more competitive team. After all, all three of the Lions’ games have been decided by seven points or less. In stark contrast, the Bears have been outscored by a margin of 83-to-45! It’s expected that a sprained thumb will force Chicago QB Jay Cutler to miss his second consecutive game Sunday, meaning Chicago’s fate will be in the hands of veteran Brian Hoyer. Chicago ranks 29th in points scored (15.0 PPG) and 27th in total offense (310.7 YPG), as the team's running game is almost non-existent (71.7 YPG).
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is the main reason the Lions rank fifth in scoring at 27.0 PPG. Despite Calvin Johnson retiring, Stafford is completing 67.5% for an average of 312.7 YPG with seven TDs and just two INTs (QB rating is 105.0). Like the Bears, the Lions’ running game needs to improve but it is averaging 101.0 YPG, about 30 more per game than Chicago’s. Detroit’s defense ranks 21st in yards allowed (379.0 YPG) and 27th in points allowed (28.3 PPG).
Chicago has lost seven of its last eight games overall and 11 of 12 at home, going back to last year. However, despite the fact that the Lions have beaten the Bears six times in a row, it’s difficult to lay points on the road with Detroit. Stafford has started every game at QB for Detroit going back to the 2011 season and the Lions are a sub-par 18-24 SU in those games. Hoyer catches a lot of slack but the fact is, his record as an NFL starter isn’t all that bad, at 15-12. Take the home dog to bark loudly in this one.
Harry Bondi
Carolina / Atlanta Under 51.5
History suggests that this number is largely inflated for no particular reason so we’ll call for a much lower scoring game than anticipated. In the last four meetings between these divisional rivals the highest the total has been is 48. All four of those games not only went under the total, but they did so by a combined 41 points, more than 10 points per game on average. So why the huge increase to over 50? What’s more, the Falcons have gone under in 24 of their last 35 games overall, including a 10-6 record to the under in their last 16 home games. The total is simply way too high here. Go under!
David Banks
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Kansas City +3.5
It was the worst loss in 27 years for Pittsburgh last week when they were blown out by Philadelphia, 34-3. The only good thing that Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin can take away from the loss is that Kansas City runs the exact same offense as the Eagles. New Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson is an Andy Reid disciple and was Reid’s offensive coordinator in Kansas City last year. After a week of seeing it shred his defense, Tomlin will make sure his unit is more prepared for Sunday night.
The Steelers’ secondary has not played well thus far this season. While Pittsburgh has played well against the run, the secondary has surrendered 300 or more yards in each of the first three games. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith averages 241 yards passing a game and Kansas City doesn’t really have a downfield threat. Their leading receiver is tight end Travis Kelce (17 rec., 197 yds.).
What the Chiefs do have is a super-aggressive defense. Last week in a 24-3 win over the Jets, the Chiefs forced eight turnovers. They picked off New York QB Ryan Fitzpatrick six times, returned one of those interceptions for a score, and returned a fumble for a touchdown as well. Kansas City is plus-5 in turnover margin, while the Steelers are minus-1.
Still, Kansas City must travel to Heinz Field where the Steelers are typically very hard to beat. The tandem of QB Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown is one of the deadliest in the NFL. The Steelers were without RB Le’Veon Bell due to suspension, but DeAngelo Williams stepped in nicely and is seventh in the league in rushing. Bell will return for Sunday night’s game. The Chiefs give up 123 yards per game on the ground, which means Pittsburgh may try and attack the interior of the Kansas City defense.
Tony Finn
Los Angeles at Arizona
Play: Arizona -8.5
The Arizona Cardinals have been anything but eye-candy in the first three weeks of the 2016 season and while it is wise to always temper expectations there are a handful of signs that indicate that Bruce Arians’ squad is ready to break out of their funk. This belief isn’t held by many NFL pundits after the Cardinals were humbled by Rex Ryan’s Buffalo Bills this past Sunday and simply winning a home game against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday isn’t going to change the perception of everyone. The Cardinals dropped to 1-2 after a porous performance in upstate New York a week ago falling 33-18 to a win-less Bills squad.
Arizona returns to their familiar time-zone for a Week #4 test against division foe Los Angeles in a late Sunday kick at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale.
Rams
Los Angeles is off an surprising but impressive win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past week improving their record to 2-1 in September. Jeff Fisher and the Rams have found ways to win two of their first three contest this season but they are a one dimensional offense with a defense that is capable of keeping them in games. The strength of the LA offense lies in their second-year tailback Todd Gurley.
The Rams ranked dead last in total offense a season ago and managed a mere nine points in their first two 2016 contests. The Rams win in Tampa Bay a week ago was more a result of what the Buccaneers did and didn’t do than a magical change in fortune for the LA passing attack. The Rams scored 37 points in their Week #3 road victory and did so with running back Todd Gurley averaging less than 3 yards per carry. Quarterback Case Keenum threw for just 190 yards against the Buccaneers and has completed a mere 54 percent of his passes while registering less than 600 yards through the air in the team’s first three games.
The Rams defensive unit has the ability to create havoc in opposing backfields. The coaching staff does a good job of utilizing their talent and pressuring the quarterback. Anchoring the LA front seven is defensive linemen Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn.
Cardinals
The Arizona coaching staff have typically created successful game-plans for quarterback Carson Palmer and the offense when facing the Rams defense. Palmer threw for 356 yards and two TDs in a 27-3 rout versus LA in their last meeting, in December. The Cards signal-caller is coming off one of his worst performances in his career. The Arizona QB threw four interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to the Bills recording a quarterback rating of under 40.00. Palmer has the weapons and the savvy to rebound from not only a sub-par performance against the Bills but over his last half dozen games. With a healthy Larry Fitzgerald, deep threat John Brown, possession receiver Michael Floyd and a running back that can take it to the house in David Johnson this Cardinals group has under-performed.
Outlook
Expect a big bounce back exhibition from the Cardinals. Offensively they have enough weapons to keep a good Rams defense on their heels and the Arizona defense will key on Gurley by loading the box making Keenum beat them with his arm.
Dwayne Bryant
Cowboys at 49ers
Play: Under 46
Flashbacks to the 1990's rivalry for NFC supremacy dance through my head as I think about the matchup at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California this Sunday. The 2-1 Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the 1-2 San Francisco 49ers, and I'm suggesting a play on UNDER the total.
Cowboys star receiver Dez Bryant will sit this game out with a hairline fracture in his right knee. Not to worry though, as rookie QB Dak Prescott appears to have great chemistry with Cole Beasley and Jason Witten. But I'm expecting Dallas to focus on pounding the football with rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott behind the league's best offensive line.
The 49ers lack talent at the quarterback position, so you can also expect them to focus on the ground attack with running back Carlos Hyde (interesting side note, as both Hyde and Elliott played their college ball at Ohio State). The Cowboys will likely stack the box and force the 49ers to beat them through the air; something for which they're not known.
With both teams focused on attacking over land, the clock keeps on ticking. While Niners head coach Chip Kelly is known for his fast-paced offense, the Cowboys are usually one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. They play very deliberately on offense in order to keep a very suspect defense off the field. That has worked well for them, and works to our advantage here.
I don't see both teams breaking the 20-point barrier in this one. That makes the UNDER a very solid play.
Marco D'Angelo
Raiders at Ravens
Play: Over 46.5
On the surface you look and see that Baltimore has allowed just 7,20 and 17 points in it’s first 3 games. So seeing a total of 46.5 would make one want to jump on the Under at first glance. But if you look deeper Baltimore has played Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville who are a combined 1-8 this season so far. This is the best team Baltimore has faced and by far the best offense they have seen. Oakland will score points meaning that Baltimore will have to open things up to answer. That will lead to a higher scoring game. My numbers have 51 or more points being scored here.
Oskeim Sports
Browns at Redskins
Play: Browns +8
Washington is coming off a thrilling (and emotionally-draining) 29-27 come-from-behind win over the Giants, which triggers a 1-16 ATS NFL system that dictates investing against Game Four favorites off their first win of the season, provided the win was deemed an upset by Las Vegas. The Redskins were 3.5-point underdogs last week and fall squarely within the foregoing system.
History also indicates that Washington suffers a letdown after playing the Giants, especially when the Redskins are facing a non-division opponent (1-7 ATS L/8 ). Let's also note that Game Four NFL favorites coming off their first win of the season after starting the campaign with back-to-back losses are just 6-29-1 ATS. Washington is a money-burning 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a win, 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games after covering the spread and 8-25-2 ATS in in its last 35 home games versus teams with a losing road record.
Washington has been a favorite six times with Kirk Cousins as starting quarterback, and the Redskins are 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in those contests. Cousins remains inconsistent, especially in the red zone, and continues to misread coverages. Meanwhile, the Redskins' stop unit has allowed a play success rate of 56.3%, which is the worst in the NFL. Washington's defense has also allowed opposing teams to convert an incredible 57.9% (22-of-38) of their third downs this season.
Finally, my math model only favors Washington by six points and NFL road teams that lost their previous game but covered the spread (i.e. Browns) are 111-74 ATS in their subsequent game since 2003. Cleveland also applies to a very good 117-79 ATS contrarian system that invests on certain road underdogs in the first four weeks of the regular season. Grab the points and invest with confidence.
Mike Rose
Titans at Texans
Play: Under 41
Houston won a couple of one-sided affairs against the Titans last season winning 34-6 as 3.5 point road favorites and 20-6 again as 3.5 point home favorites. The games split against the closing total, but each should have combined to go easily under the total.
I’m not expecting much offense in this game. Mariota and Osweiler are still finding themselves within the offenses, and the defenses have led each team to their early season successes or lack thereof. Houston was embarrassed last week in New England, while Tennessee dropped a game it likely should have taken after outgaining the Raiders. While each of these offenses has been charitable with the pigskin, neither defense has shown a knack for forcing turnovers with the Titz averaging just 0.7 and Texans 1.3.
The under is a combined 5-1 in these division rivals six played games, and would’ve been a perfect 6-0 had Tennessee not run into the Vikings turnover happy defense in Week 1. Make these offenses beat you on Sunday.
Nelly
Chiefs at Steelers
Play: Steelers
When this game was lined up for a Week 4 Sunday night clash it was reasonable to expect that these would be 3-0 squads fighting for AFC supremacy. Both teams suffered losses to sit at 2-1 with this being a key potential tiebreaker game down the line. Kansas City’s defense scored eight turnovers last week to hid minimal offensive production from the Chiefs this season as Alex Smith has had a disappointing season so far. The Steelers losing in Philadelphia was certainly a surprise last week but managing only three points in the defeat with not even 250 yards of offense was perhaps the surprise of the season. The Steelers did beat quality teams in the first two weeks and a wake-up call isn’t the worst thing for one of the AFC favorites that holds a 29-20-3 ATS mark at home since 2010 despite often being overvalued as one of the league’s most popular teams.
Bob Balfe
Lions -3 & Over 48
Last week we took advantage by going against teams that were awful on defense and on top of that had multiple injuries. Las Vegas really has not adjusted yet and anything Under 50 points involving a Bears Defense is a steal. Chicago has no pass rush, just about any decent linebacker hurt and key players out in the secondary. The Lions don’t really have a running game and it will catch up with them this season, but with Stafford today he just needs to spread them out and pick the guy that is open. Easy as 1-2-3. Chicago will not defend these receivers. I think the Bears can score because the Lions have no edges on that defensive line and a lot of linebackers hurt. Neither team has much of a front seven today. Detroit has more talent and should win this football game on the road with it being very high scoring. Take the Lions and the Over.
Brady Kannon
Bucs +3
With this being an afternoon game and such high profile favorites playing in the afternoon as well (Dallas, Arizona, Pittsburgh), you may see this game tick up to 3.5.
Very much public perception on this game as everybody saw Denver beat up on Cincinnati last week and The Buccs fall to The Rams. What they did not see is that Tampa Bay outgained The Rams in that loss by over 150-yards. I was against Tampa Bay last week for a winner but I will back them here as I believe if you look inside the numbers, they are a better team than what some of their scores so far may have looked like. I also don't mind going against the defending SuperBowl Champs going out of conference, on the road as a favorite. In this role, the champs are 45-and-77 ATS and are 0-and-6 ATS when they are undefeated, coming off of a SUATS non-division win.
I am a believer in The Broncos but I think this situation sets up well for Tampa Bay and it is a little too soon to be buying high on Denver.
The Real Animal
Jets +1
A must-win in week #4? It might be for the New York Jets. The Flyboys were miserable last week turning it over EIGHT TIMES at Arrowhead as the somewhat normally-accurate Ryan Fitzpatrick was horrible with six picks. But we like the situation for the Jets considering this is their only home game in a five week stretch and are on the road against playoff contenders Pittsburgh and Arizona on deck. I tend to like teams off embarrassing efforts especially if they are returning home and have a top-caliber team in town. Until last week Seattle was struggling offensively and the Hawks are nothing special on the road losing their first encounter in LA 9-3. Now a cross-country start and an early kickoff for a west coach team on the east coast. The Jets should have the edge in the trenches and Seattle is gimpy with their banged-up offensive line plus Russell Wilson’s ankle. While the Jets are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog in their last 10 tries, Seattle is 1-8 ATS on the AFC road following a home game. Coach Bowles is 6-1 ATS when taking points so far as the Jets’ boss. The Jets only allowed KC one offensive touchdown last week. Plus it should be noted the Jets are 9-1 ATS as a one-point or higher underdog coming off a game in which they scored eight points or less. Hold your nose and bet the Jets! New York receivers Eric Decker is out while Brandon Marshall has a sore knee but will play. That prevents any shot of a major.