Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 30th, 2016

Spartan

Packers +3

I faded the Falcons last week as the Chargers left Atlanta with the outright victory under their belts. I will take Green Bay here getting the points. Yes, the Packers showed some signs of life last time out against the Bears but I am going to take that with a boulder of salt. It was the Bears they were showing life against, not the Seahawks defense out there. But, the fact is the time off could not have come at a better time for Mike McCarthy and his troops. Here is the deal guys, Green Bay is not nearly as bad as some were trying to make them out to be. And on the flip side the Falcons are not nearly as good as some were proclaiming them to be early on. Yes, I have concerns with Jones working against that Packers secondary. Is it enough to sway me? No. Phillip Rivers was able to do some serious work against the Falcons defense and I suspect Rodgers will as well. While everyone will be watching Jones go to work they should not overlook the Packers wide out DaVante Adams who is starting to fulfill his potential. Adams went off against the Bears hauling in a stellar 13 receptions and two touchdowns. Want to double up on Adams, well have at it. They still have Cobb and Nelson to work that suspect Atlanta secondary. I think this has the makings of some flashback Rodgers work. I don't live and die by trends, never have, but I do perform my due diligence and the stubborn fact is the Falcons are not a solid team to bet on when they have failed to cover a number the prior time out. Fact is they have only covered the number in a lousy twice in the last eleven times they took the field in that role. Not good. On the flip side the Packers have been a solid money maker for bettors on the road now cashing on six of their last eight games traveling. Put those two together and draw your own conclusions. So yes, in the end I acknowledge there is some decline in Rodgers play for some time now. But is there overreaction, yes, I also believe that to be true. We are still getting here a better Green Bay team in my view plus points. Atlanta is showing their true colors and it's my thinking Green Bay is the right side here guys.

Art Aronson

Seahawks vs. Saints
Play: Saints +3

We’ve used Seattle as a “free play selection” the past two weeks, but this Sunday we’re going to go against the struggling Seahawks’ offense and instead back the much hungrier home side. Seattle’s offense looked atrocious in its 6-6 Sunday Night tie with Arizona last week. The Seahawks run game has stalled and QB Russell Wilson still isn’t back to 100% health with his ankle injury. New Orleans on the other hand comes in ranked among the leaders in every offensive statistical category. At 3-4, the Saints still have a shot at the division title, but at 2-5, the odds would obviously be stacked against them. It’s a brutal part of the scheudle for the Seahawks, who have Buffalo visit next weekend, followed by a trip to New England. Note that Seattle is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC South, while New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS this season. Consider a second look at New Orleans in Week 8.

Dwayne Bryant

Green Bay at Atlanta
Play: Green Bay +3

The Falcons four-game winning streak got snapped two weeks ago when Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman did not get called for what was clearly pass interference on Falcons receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta would've likely kicked the game-winning field goal had the penalty flag been thrown. Atlanta followed that disappointment by blowing a 17-point lead in an equally disappointing 3-point home loss to the Chargers last Sunday. Now they must face a Packers team whose star quarterback/offense finally showed signs of life in their last game.

Much has been written this season about how Green Bay's offense, and QB Aaron Rodgers in particular, is a bit off kilter. But at home against the Bears in their last game, Rodgers and the Packers offense started clicking as the game wore on. With running back Eddie Lacy injured, the Packers have turned to receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery has played well at the running back spot, and is always a pass-catching threat from the backfield.

The offenses get the press, but it's the defenses that have me leaning Green Bay's way here. Both teams are solid at stopping the run. Atlanta is tied for 8th in the league, allowing 3.8 yards per carry. The Packers are #1, allowing just 3.1 per rushing attempt. But let's face it, these two teams are going to do much more passing than running. And that's where the difference is in this game.

Green Bay's pass defense is tied for 15th with 10 passing touchdowns allowed, 16th with a 91.4 QB Rating allowed, and 15th with 242 passing yards allowed per game. By comparison, Atlanta's pass defense is tied with the 49ers for 29th with 15 TD passes allowed (only the Browns & Lions are worse), 26th with a 96.9 QB Rating allowed, and 31st (only Oakland is worse) with 294 passing yards allowed per game. Needless to say, Rodgers and company should be able to keep the offensive momentum going here.

This game should come down to whoever gets the ball last. It will definitely be an entertaining game to watch. But in the end, I trust Green Bay's defense to be able to make that one crucial stop more than I trust Atlanta's. Your Sunday freebie is a recommendation on the GREEN BAY PACKERS.

Strike Point Sports

Washington (+3) over Cincinnati

We hit our big play on Cincinnati at home over Cleveland last weekend but are jumping to the other side of the fence, or pond, this weekend. Cincy, even covering the game versus Cleveland, struggled to stop the Browns from moving the ball. Washington has a better offense and a better quarterback and should have little difficulty putting points on the board. I love the points, but I don't see Washington needing them here as they win this game outright. The NFC East is much better than people anticipated, and the Redskins will win this game. The Bengals just look off. The Bengals have three wins on the season thus far: a one-point win over the Jets, and double-digit wins over Miami and Cleveland. Now that is nothing to write home about. When they play some actual decent competition they lose and typically lose bad. They lost by eight to Pittsburgh, 12 to Denver, 14 to Dallas, and 18 to New England. Washington will be similar to the later and win this game by a touchdown. Look for the Skins to pull out the "overseas" victory 24-17.

Randall The Handle

THE BEST

Seahawks (4-1-1) at Saints (2-4)

Last Sunday night’s tie between Seattle and Arizona was an exhausting affair that saw a pair of NFC West rivals go toe to toe for five full rounds. While a tie might have been flattering to the Seahawks (Seattle had five first downs in regulation), the more significant factor is Seattle’s fatigue level. A physically draining experience for the Seachickens, they now find themselves on foreign turf for the third time in four weeks including a pair in the Eastern time zone. Asking this weary team to head into the Superdome and play on a fast track while giving away a few points seems almost unfair. It doesn’t help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson has lost some mobility with an injured leg and that he lacks a quality ground game to help bail him out. Meanwhile, Saints are back home and this time as an underdog which is a role they’ve excelled in during the few times placed in it with 7 covers in 10 games taking points here. Drew Brees is in fine form and should get his. Under current conditions, doubtful that the Seahawks can counter. TAKING: SAINTS +2½

Redskins (4-3) vs Bengals (3-4) at London, England

When you initially look at this pointspread, you would assume that the game is in Cincinnati. Well, it’s not. This is another early morning game coming to us from the pitch at Wembley Stadium in London. Frankly, we can’t understand why the Bengals are favoured. It surely can’t be Cincinnati’s win over the useless Browns last week, can it? If so, do we just disregard Cincy’s pair of losses prior to that one? The Bengals’ three wins have come against the Jets (by one point), the Dolphins who played a Sunday overtime game prior to a short week Thursday game in Cincinnati and then the Brownies. While the Redskins may not be elite, they were 16 seconds away from a five-game winning streak after tough loss in Detroit last week. The Bengals struggle with these types, currently on a 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) run vs.teams with a winning record. Skins should have TE Jordan Reed back for this one that bolsters an already explosive Washington offence in a game the dog can win straight up. TAKING: REDSKINS +3

Packers (4-2) at Falcons (4-3)

The Falcons had a 5-0 start a year ago before they collapsed like a Jenga tower, going 3-8 the rest of the way. Now on a two-game skid after a four-game win streak, the Dirty Birds will pull out all stops to get back on the winning track. Atlanta has the weaponry to do it. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan are as deadly a duo as there are in the league right now. Mix in a solid ground game and few can stop this offence. Certainly not the Packers, who are very thin at an injury-riddled cornerback position. While the Packers are usually feared, there is something amiss with them even following a Thursday night win over the Bears, some 10 days before this one goes. That win against Chicago saw the Pack struggle offensively with a 6-3 lead at the half before Bears forced to go with 3rd string QB Matt Barkley after 2nd stringer Brian Hoyer broke his arm in the second quarter. Packers also away for first time in five weeks. On this day, they are unlikely to travel well. TAKING: FALCONS –3

THE REST

Lions (4-3) at Texans (4-3)

Perfect sell high, buy low situation here. Texans couldn’t go forward in front of a national audience on Monday night while the Lions had an exciting finish in their last second win over the Redskins. Sis-boom-bah! So of course the marketplace will be looking to fade punchless Houston but the oddsmakers are no dummies and they’ve lined it up accordingly. As a result, we get a value play here. Detroit looks good on the merits of a three-game win streak heading into this one. But that string of victories were all at Ford Field and all were games that came down to the wire, winning by 1, 3 and 3. There was a price to pay for those triumphs as several important Lion defenders were hurt, including corner Darius Slay, Detroit’s best pass defender. Houston can run the ball and play defence here and that should be enough for the home cover. TAKING: TEXANS –2½

Patriots (6-1) at Bills (4-3)

Yes, it scares us that the Bills have never swept Bill Belichick. And yes, we know that the Patriots are the best team in football. We’re well aware of Tom Brady, his two talented tight ends and a fired up team on a vengeful mission after being punished by league brass. New England was shutout 16-0 at Gillette a few weeks ago with Brady in civvies. That will only make the Pats madder. Taking the Bills here feels scarier than any monster that may show up at your door on Monday night. Still, it’s the way to go. Divisional home underdogs are a strong play in the NFL. Receiving this many points with a winning team is rare. In addition, the Bills are mysteriously dangerous on this field having covered six of past seven here. Fear of New England provides a surplus of points here which shouldn’t be refused. TAKING: BILLS +6½

Jets (2-5) at Browns (0-7)

The Browns do not want to become the fifth team in league history to go 0-16. Peeking at their schedule, this might be best chance at a win. If nothing else, Cleveland has put forth gritty efforts in most of its seven losses. It looks like QB Josh McCown will be back under center for the Brownies and while McCown isn’t exactly elite, he offers the veteran stability his team needs to earn a victory. Opposing the Cleveland quarterback is Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets’ pivot had one of the shortest benchings in history after Geno Smith went down early last week and is lost for the year. Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine this season with 11 interceptions compared to just six touchdown throws. Prior to dumping 24 points on the wimpy Ravens last week, the Jets had failed to score 18 points in four consecutive games. No matter who the opponent, can’t spot road points with troubled visitor. TAKING: BROWNS +3

Raiders (5-2) at Buccaneers (3-3)

Still uncertainties with both of these squads, despite Oakland’s very respectable record and Tampa’s decisive win off the bye last week. The concern with the Raiders is its 32nd ranked defence, allowing a league high 430 yards per game and the only club permitting more than 300 yards passing. As for the Bucs, the Niners are such a train wreck that a one-sided win has become an expectation. So who to trust more in this spot? Management decided to stay in Florida after Oakland’s win in Jacksonville last week. Logistically sound but a week in the fun and sun of Florida before playing a team that is off of two road wins, and before heading home to face Denver, just doesn’t feel safe. The Bucs have the receivers to inflict damage here. Back to back wins have placed the Buckos back in the race for the division. Favourable situation here earns the nod for the host. TAKING: BUCCANEERS –1½

Chiefs (4-2) at Colts (3-4)

Not willing to put much faith in a Kansas City squad that has lost both away games versus non-division opponents, including Indianapolis’ division mate Houston. The Chiefs did earn a road win but that was against arch enemy Raiders. Now, an erratic KC squad will spot points to Andrew Luck at home where the skilled QB is 8-0 when receiving points on own turf. Usually, there is concern with Indy’s defence but Kansas City’s offence isn’t scaring anyone these days and with top RB Jamal Charles still on the limp, points come at a premium for the visitor. On the flip side, Luck is finally finding a rhythm with his offence and they’ll be flinging it around in only their second home game in past five weeks and following two away. Chiefs can’t be counted on, sporting just one cover in past five versus team with a losing record and they are 0-5 ATS following a win. TAKING: COLTS +2½

Chargers (3-4) at Broncos (5-2)

Scrappy Chargers are hard to ignore, especially with their strong 9-1-2 ATS mark here and excellent underdog numbers, but this is a tough spot for them. San Diego took down the champs just two weeks ago in So Cal. Can’t see lightening striking twice as the Broncos possess too much skill, pride and knowledge to allow for the sweep. More relevant is a Denver defence that does not allow passers to beat them as the Broncos haven’t permitted a wideout to catch a TD pass since opening night. Chargers not the best travellers with just two wins in previous 13 away games and only away win in four tries this year required an exhausting comeback followed by overtime just last week. Mile High is tough on visitors, the Broncos failing to cover here just once in past seven tries. Also note that Gary Kubiak missed earlier game. This one bodes well for his guys. TAKING: BRONCOS -5

Cardinals (3-3) at Panthers (1-5)

The Cardinals were completely humiliated by these Panthers a year ago by 49-15 in NFC final and that would usually have us taking a hard look at the embarrassed club, especially one of this quality. However, the Panthers are in desperation mode right now after their 1-5 start and they’ve had two weeks to work on repairs. One main issue has been stopping the pass, the team uncharacteristically ranking low in all associated stats. But they do have some starters returning to the secondary and Arizona’s aerial game has not been a strength this season. Carolina also catches Arizona in a vulnerable position after its five period slugfest with Seattle this past Sunday evening and then flying east for an early start. If ever there was a bounce back spot, this is it for the host. History suggests same as Panthers have won eight of 10 SU and ATS after failing to cover previous home game. TAKING: PANTHERS –2½

Eagles (4-2) at Cowboys (5-1)

Who would have thought this would be the battle of two fine rookie quarterbacks? While both Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and Dallas’ Dak Prescott are both performing well, the Cowboys are afforded the edge because of leading Rookie of the Year candidate Ezekiel Elliott. With Dallas’ exceptional offensive line, the poise that young Prescott is displaying and the outstanding skill set that Elliott brings, it’s no wonder that the coaching staff does not want to tinker with the offence even if Tony Romo is ready to go. Five game winning streaks will do that. The Eagles have been a pleasant surprise so far but asking them to take on the two best clubs in the NFC on consecutive weeks after defeating previously unbeaten Minnesota last week, is a tall order that may not be ready to be filled. Cowboys have also had an extra week to prepare for this showdown. TAKING: COWBOYS –4

Vikings (5-1) at Bears (1-6)

Every night has been Halloween for the Bears lately. But this has also been a haunted house for the Vikings with just three covers in past 13 trips here. Jay Cutler returns to quarterback Chicago and that is typically a good thing for the home club as Cutler is holds a 6-1 mark at Soldier Field against this division rival. One guy happy to have Cutler back is top receiver Alshon Jeffery who had averaged better than 100 yards per contest with Cutler throwing to him compared to just 63 yards per game with Brian Hoyer back there. The Vikings finally lost last week after Minnesota’s offensive line failed to protect QB Sam Bradford, resulting in a poor outing that had Bradford sacked six times, fumbling four times and tossing his first interception of the year. Hurting Vikes spotting handful of division road points on big stage is just too risky for us. TAKING: BEARS +5

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY -104 over Oakland

The Raiders are 5-2 and have not lost on the road. That is appealing to most but not to us, as the Raiders are getting extremely lucky and luck eventually runs out. So, let’s have a closer look at these imposters from Oakland. The Raiders are dead last in total defense and yards allowed per play. They are outscoring teams by less than one point per game. Oakland is winning because they are tops in turnover margin. The Raiders have zero convincing victories this season with an entire slate of wins by the narrowest of margins. They have also defeated a bunch of dregs too but things are about to get a little bit tougher here.

The Buccaneers are coming off two straight road wins but have yet to win a game at home this season. That’s odd in itself but this host is ready to pop in their own barn. The Bucs' ground game should easily be able to rip it up this week and accomplish two things by doing so. First, they’ll be able to wear down this brutally weak defense and secondly, they’ll be able to limit the Raiders possessions and not play into their strengths. The Buccaneers offense is starting to peak and their defense can play too. To defeat a weak team, you play into all their inefficiencies and in that regard, the Raiders have plenty. Weak teams rarely win on the road and now thias weak one is being asked to win five straight on the road. We don’t think so.

Green Bay +145 over ATLANTA

As a home favorite last Sunday, the Falcons came crashing down to earth in an overtime loss to the Chargers. Atlanta blew a 10-point halftime lead and it now appears as though its crazy schedule has finally caught up with them, as the Falcons could only muster a field goal in the second half. Prior to playing the Chargers, Atlanta had played four of five on the road including back-to-back road games at Denver and Seattle. They were fumning on fumes in the second half last week and it may continue here. Aside from that, Atlanta is a completely one-sided squad that's led by it's offense but it relies way too much on Julio Jones. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw 34 passes against the Chargers with 15 of those being targeted at Jones, who caught nine balls. When you know where the ball is going, it's much easier to defend and Jones was kept relatively quiet in the second half after San Diego made their adjustments. While he caught four passes in the second half, two of those were in the final seconds of the fourth quarter. The Falcons are now 4-3 after two straight losses and they also have a big prime time game next Thursday night at Tampa.

The Packers finally covered a game in the Week 7 Thursday nighter over the Bears. Chicago lost quarterback Brian Hoyer to injury early in the game so we can understand how easy it is to dismiss the Packers performance against a third stringer in Matt Barkley. Also, it's the Bears, so no matter who the QB was for Chicago, a win and cover doesn't hold much weight in the market. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been on the hot seat all season and has been the subject of many articles with the pundits breaking down what's wrong with #12. In Aaron Rodgers own words the last time he was under fire, all we can say is, "R-E-L-A-X". The Packers have played some tough defenses this season in Minny, Dallas and the Giants. Rodgers should have no trouble moving the chains and racking up points against the Falcons, as the Packers take a big step down in defensive competition here.

The Packers are just 3-2-1 ATS and they barely covered against the Jags and Lions. Green Bay’s value may be at it's lowest in years. Meanwhile the Falcons are 5-2 with impressive covers against Oakland, Carolina, New Orleans, Denver and Seattle. Taking back points, Atlanta won four of those games outright. As a favorite, the Falcons are not appealing at all, as they are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 as the chalk. That reveals how big a risk the Falcons are when they’re asked to spot points. A motivated Aaron Rodgers getting points is where the value lies here but we don’t even want the points. The Falcons balloon has been popped. Pack outright.

NEW ORLEANS +120 over Seattle

Offensively, the Seahawks looked every bit as terrible as the six points they scored last week at Arizona. However, they were somehow able to salvage a tie despite getting totally dominated throughout. The Seahawks poor performance may have been overshadowed by the zaniness that went down on Sunday Night Football. Despite its 4-2 record, we do not like what we've seen from Seattle this season. The Seahawks have been inconsistent with their two best games of the season coming against the Jets and the 49ers. Seattle struggled at home against both the Falcons and Dolphins and it lost outright at the Rams. The perception is that anyone can score on the Saints and while that may be true, the Seahawks spotting road points against an offense that can easily out-punch them has very little appeal.

The Saints have lost much of their lustre since the glory days of the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. They used to be unbeatable at the Super Dome but that is no longer the case. Their defense is generally regarded as the worst in the league. Daily fantasy players routinely smash whatever offense is lining up against New Orleans on a given week. Despite their poor defensive reputation, the Saints offense is still running at a high level. Brees is surrounded with quality weapons. The Saints have played in some close games all season and have been a quality choice and a high percentage play when taking back points. They have only failed to cover this season as the betting favorite while covering each and every time they’ve been offered points. We’re not even going after the points this week, as the Saints can easily win this one outright. New Orleans is averaging 36 points per game at home with Drew Brees throwing for 421 yards and nearly four TD passes per game. Seattle cannot match that offensive production on its best day. Saints outright.

Arizona +141 over CAROLINA

The difference between last year’s Panthers and this years edition is nothing but pure luck. Carolina led the league in turnover margin last year while this year they are second last in that department. Creating turnovers or committing them is not a skill. It’s a luck driven, in game variant that determines the outcome of a large majority of games, which is why we stress “going with the best of it” and in that regard, the Cardinals are the best of it.

The Panthers defense is a shell of the unit that dominated so many games last season. Furthermore, Cam Newton has been running for his life since the first game in Denver. Despite their record, the Panthers are still a popular team with Newton being a transcendent player. Cam may put up big time fantasy numbers but those don't matter when your defense can't stop anybody. Newton actually has similar numbers to last season but he's thrown two more interceptions. Newton better be well rested coming off the bye because he's got a date with one of the fiercest defensive units in the game and we all saw him meltdown against a similar group in last year’s Super Bowl.

The Cardinals took part in what was either “the worst best game ever of the best worst game ever” or maybe both, as Jim Rome tweeted Sunday night. That painful 6-6 tie has left a lasting impression but we’re not going to put much stock into it, as that game Sunday night was a prime example of why “in-game variance” is impossible to predict. We now get to take advantage of a misleading result when in fact, Arizona could have won that game by 28 points or more. The Cardinals' defense is still one of the best in the game and that doesn't bode well for Cam Newton who's been beaten up all season and already missed time with a concussion. This is just a bad matchup for the Panthers in every way possible. Lastly, the Panthers crushed Arizona, 49-15 in the NFC championship game when the Panthers were rolling and everything was going their way. What a difference a year makes and while revenge is not an angle we endorse, this is one rare time we’ll factor it into our decision because the defeat was of the humiliating variety.

Bryan Leonard

Arizona at Carolina
Play: Carolina -3

While the gut reaction would be to fade the Panthers here, the scheduling situation is simply too good to pass up for the host. Arizona is coming off the Sunday night slugfest with Seattle. A game that ended in a 6-6 tie. Arizona is taking to the road for only the third time this season and second time crossing the Mississippi River. The other long travel game was a 33-18 loss at Buffalo.

Carolina has been a major disappointment this season but is coming off a bye. The best situation is a quality team leaving the bye off a bad performance. That's certainly the situation here with Carolina dropping four straight games. Money is coming in on the Cards so we are in no hurry with this one as the line is only going to get better.

Buster Sports

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Play: New York Jets -3

The Jets to say the least have had a very disappointing season but they do have a bright spot as they have the 4th ranked run defense in the league after holding the Ravens to 6 yards last week. OUCH. The Browns have had a typical Browns year so far with their 0-7 record and they are definitely looking to secure the Number 1 draft choice again even though we are just coming up on halfway through the NFL season. Both teams have had QB troubles and the Browns will get often injured QB Josh McCown back for the contest. While the Jets will have to settle for Ryan Fitzpatrick as Geno Smith was injured last week and is now gone for the season. We like the fact that Fitzpatrick is back and playing with a chip on his shoulder and we believe the Jets will rally around their veteran leader. This is just what the doctor ordered for the Jets as they try and put back to back wins together for the first time this year. This is also a good matchup for the Jets going against Cleveland's D that has been just bad this year against the run and the pass. The oddsmaker has this line at 3 at the time of this writing and we had this line at 5 1/2. Lots of value for us at 3 here so we will LAY IT.

Mike Rose

San Diego vs. Denver
Play: San Diego +4.5

While the Chargers still have a major climb to get themselves firmly back into the AFC West picture, Mike McCoy’s squad has done a great job bouncing back from a terrible start to the season. No longer are we talking about this club finding ways to lose games. Not after it dominated Denver 21-13 as 3 point underdogs two weeks ago and then followed it up with an awesome overtime comeback win in Atlanta last week.

I’m not done riding the Chargers turnaround since I believe it’s seriously only just begun. With the amount of debilitating injuries this team has incurred, it’s been amazing to see them in each and every one of their games played to date. SD has covered 5 of its 7 played games to date, and has covered all four against +.500 opponents.

While Denver has won four of the last five times it hosted this rivalry, it lost four of those games where it really counts against the pointspread. While it will be tough to hang with a determined Denver side coming off a physical overtime win against the Falcons, San Diego can’t afford to lose many more games due to its tough luck start. The Chargers run defense thrived in the first go round, and it won't have to deal with C.J. Anderson this time around. Gimme the points and sprinkle some on the money-line as well.

Oskeim Sports

Kansas City at Indianapolis
Play: Indianapolis +3

Having lost four of its last 6 games, Indianapolis traveled to Tennessee last week in what most observers described as a hopeless situation. Despite endless speculation circulating about the job security of head coach Chuck Pagano, the Colts left Tennessee with a 34-26 upset win as 4-point underdogs. That win, combined with the fact that quarterback Andrew Luck is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career, makes the Colts a definitive "buy" in Week Eight.

The Colts' offense, which is 0.4 yards per play better than average this season (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad), received good news this week when starting wide receiver Donte Moncrief returned to the practice field this week after missing the last five games with a shoulder injury. Moncrief, who is the team's No. 2 receiver, stated on Wednesday that he would be "surprised" if he doesn't play on Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Colts are 2-1 SU and ATS at home this season where they are averaging 30.0 points and 419 total yards per game at 6.6 yards per play. That production is good enough to exploit an overrated Kansas City defense that has been 0.2 yards per play worse than average in 2016 (5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yards per play).

Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3% of their pass attempts against Kansas City's suspect secondary, and the Chiefs are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road where they are yielding 358 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play. The Chiefs are also 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Indianapolis, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against .499 or worse opposition and 0-5 ATS in their last five games off a win.

In contrast, Indianapolis is 20-8-1 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games overall and 11-5-1 ATS in its last seventeen October affairs. The Colts have also covered the spread in four of the last meetings in this series. I also like the fact that coach Pagano's squad is 22-10 ATS at home following a divisional road win, 17-6 ATS at home off a road upset and 10-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.

Finally, Kansas City's secondary lost cornerback D.J. White to a broken hand, which is a significant loss as the talented rookie was showing a lot of growth after struggling earlier in the season against Ben Roethlisberger. If starting cornerback Phillip Gaines remains out (miss most or all of the past three games because of a sore knee), the Chiefs will struggle to contain Luck and the Colts' prolific aerial attack.

With Indianapolis standing at a perfect 7-0 ATS (since December 4, 2011) following a game where it was installed as an underdog versus an opponent off back-to-back wins, grab the points with the Colts.

Wunderdog

Arizona @ Carolina
Pick: Over 47

The Carolina Panthers were 15-1 during the regular season last year, but are just 1-5 to start this season. Only two teams have made the playoffs starting 1-5, so the Panthers are really up against the wall. What is the biggest difference between 15-1 last season, and 1-5 this year? The departure of Josh Norman is just one reason. The Panthers defense that allowed 19.1 points per game in the regular season last year has eroded to 29.3 ppg this year. When you add over 10 ppg to what your defense allows, you're in trouble. The Cardinals are not without trouble of their own at 3-3-1, as they can no longer match the 13-3 record from last season. They have done a good job defensively at home, where they are allow 11.2 ppg, but the road has been different as they are now allowing 27 points per game, while the Carolina offense is still productive, at 26.8ppg. Overall, the situation calls for above average scoring. Under Coach Rivera, Carolina is 41-29 to the OVER in 70 conference games.

DAVE COKIN

PACKERS AT FALCONS
PLAY: FALCONS -3

Green Bay is sitting 4-2, but I’m not sold that this is the usual strong Packers entry. Atlanta is 4-3, but I’m starting to believe these Falcons might be a pretty good football team.

The Packers have not looked especially powerful in spite of the solid record. They’ve derived some benefit from enjoying a four-game home stand, and I believe things could get a bit tougher now that the team finally has to hit the road.

As for the Falcons, they’re off two straight very tough losses. There was the controversial defeat at the hands of the Seahawks, where Atlanta was on the wrong side of a bad late game no-call that might well have cost them the football game. As for last week, the Falcons really have no one to blame but themselves for letting a big lead melt away in an eventual overtime loss to the Chargers.

Atlanta is far from a perfect team. The Falcons do not play good defense, and I imagine that will be a problem throughout the balance of the season. But I really like this team’s offense, I also like their special teams, and the bottom line is that while the Falcons have their flaws, they’re shaping up to perhaps be one of the better teams in the NFL. That doesn’t mean Super Bowl to be sure, but I would definitely tab the Falcons as a team that now has a legit shot to be part of the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers might finally have snapped his slump as the Packers drilled the Bears a week ago Thursday, and I’m ignoring the fact Green Bay has had some extra prep time for this game. But I’m also not putting too much stock in that win against Chicago. The Bears were right there in that game until Brian Hoyer went down and the final score was, at least to me, somewhat misleading.

Prior to the Bears win, the Packers were struggling, even thought it might not have been reflected in the standings. I’ll be the first to admit I make mistakes, so maybe I’m misreading something here. But I just don’t think this edition of the Packers is up to past standards. The Green Bay running game is a problem right now thanks to the injury situation. Maybe Rodgers got it all figured out in the game with the Bears, but I’m still skeptical.

My calculations have the Falcons just a shade better than five-point favorites for this game. I only have to lay three. In the NFL, where the differentials between the actual lines and my numbers are rarely huge, even a two-point advantage is one I’ll generally put some faith in, and that’s the case with this game. I’ll give the points with the Falcons.

King Creole

Lions / Texans Over 45.5

Based on what they did (or didn't do) on Monday night (only 9 points), there won't be a lot of Totals Players on a Houston OVER this week... but we will. The reduced rest usually leads to a lot of points. It's actually the RIGHT time to strike. That's because Non-division HOME favorites off a Monday night ROAD game (TEXANS) have gone 24-5 O/U since 2009... including a PERFECT 11-0 O/U off a Monday LOSS.

We're well aware that Houston had only 271 total offensive yards in that 27-9 loss to the Denver Broncos.

NFL favorites off a ROAD loss of > 7 pts to the Denver Broncos that also went UNDER have gone 9-1 O/U since 2002 (TEXANS).

Yes, Houston only scored 9 points last week. But prior to that, they were on a 3-game 'OVER' streak. And besides, already THIS season... NFL home favorites who scored points.

The non-conference aspect of this game also sets up well for us OVER players.

(1) 8-0 O/U L4Y: All AFC home teams off a SU loss and an 'Under' (HOU) vs any NFC opponent also off an 'Under' (DET).

(2) 10-0 O/U since 2008: All AFC SOUTH favorites (TEXANS) versus any NFC NORTH opponent (LIONS) when the OU line is 43 > points.

Mainstream OU players will also be a little gun-shy about playing a Detroit OVER, given the low-scoring slim home win last week against the Redskins. Not us.

9-0-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME FIVE > non-division teams off a SU non-division home win of 3 pts.

Let's not forget that while Detroit home games have averaged only 43.5 ppg, their ROAD games have averaged 55.4 ppg!

Rob Vinciletti

Patriots -6½

The Pats are 12-0 to the spread with same season division revenge and are sure to remember the shutout loss they had at home to the Bills. Buffalo has an Injured L. McCoy who may not be effective. The Pats have covered 14 of 17 at Buffalo if they are off a win. The Bills have failed to cover over 805 of the time at home in this series with the pats off a win. The Patriots have too many weapons on offense and will look to score fast and early in this one.