Tony George
Redskins vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -2½
With a disappointing start, the good news is Cincy's schedule which has been brutal gets slightly easier and I think this is a game where the defense steps up and Cincy gets a win by a TD. Playing the likes of New England, Denver, Pittsburgh and a hot Dallas team will humble almost anyone, and last week the Cats pounded a bad Cleveland team admittedly, but gained some much needed confidence on offense putting up 559 yards.
The Redskins are without the services of RB Matt Jones and that is a huge injury, and Cousins will have his issues against a stout pass rush as Jay Gruden coaches against his mentor in this one. Skins off a bad game and loss against Detroit. Lot of sharp money in Vegas on the Bengals here and with this number under the fall number of 3, I will take the battle tested Bengals to cover the number, and for Dalton to find success throwing it.
Scott Spreitzer
Raiders vs. Bucs
Play: Raiders Pk
Four of the Raiders' five wins have come on the road this season and they're catching another beatable opponent when they face Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have yet to win at home and stood 1-3 SU overall, before winning back-to-back games against the struggling Panthers and putrid 49ers. And while Oakland stayed east after last week's win in Jacksonville, we should also point out that west coast teams playing in the second of back-to-back east coast venues have been a tremendous money-maker since for more than 30 seasons, no matter where they stayed the week leading to the second game. Bottom line is that Oakland's offense led by emerging star QB Derek Carr, should have little trouble with the Buccaneer defense that is middle-of-the-pack statistically, but allows over 26 ppg. Tampa will be busy trying to run Jacquizz Rodgers at the Raider run defense, while we expect Oakland to be able to air it out when needed, sustaining a lead in this one.
Sean Murphy
Raiders vs. Bucs
Play: Raiders Pk
Sunday NFL free play. My selection is on Oakland over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Raiders have turned plenty of heads this season but I'm not all that surprised by their success to this point. In fact, I'm not surprised at all.
Oakland has been building toward this season and are in excellent position to contend for the AFC West title. The Raiders will certainly enter this game expecting to win, and I'm confident they can do just that.
The Bucs have high hopes right now as well, fresh off a big road win over the 49ers last Sunday. Their offense rolled in that game, but that was against a Niners squad that can't stop the run. I expect to see a much different story unfold on Sunday afternoon.
Tampa Bay is fresh off back-to-back outright underdog road wins and that doesn't put it in a great spot here. The Raiders will certainly have their guard up as they can't take any opponent for granted, particularly on the road.
I believe the blowout loss to the Chiefs at home two weeks ago was the wake-up call the Raiders needed. They performed well last week in Jacksonville and I look for another strong performance here.
Chip Chirimbes
Packers vs. Falcons
Play: Falcons -3
The last time these two met Carson Palmer and the Cardinals were exposed for the frauds they actually are as the Panthers routed Arizona 49-15 on their way to the Super Bowl. The question is what has happened the the Panthers defense as their offense continues to roll ranking fifth in scoring and fourth in total yards yet they are just 1-5 with a post Super Bowl hang-over. Well, all of Carolina should have sobered up by now and will be out to end a four-game losing streak. The Panthers have had an extra week off their bye and will be ready to ground these birds.
Bill Biles
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -4
Tony Romo is back to practice, and to me this is a make or break game for Dak. If he performs he keeps his job. If he folds under the pressure of a big game then Romo will have the perfect game to come back to vs the Browns. Look for the Cowboys to use the stellar run game to open up the play action pass game and the cowboys who have been surprisingly good on defense to get a big home division win.
Jimmy Boyd
Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -4
I know San Diego just laid it on Denver two weeks ago, but I’ll take my chances with the Broncos in this spot. Keep in mind that in that first loss to the Chargers, Denver was without head coach Gary Kubiak. A huge loss given they had to play San Diego on short rest with the game on Thursday Night Football.
Denver came out flat without Kubiak on the sidelines and fell behind 10-0 early. They aren’t a team to play from behind, especially on offense. Trevor Siemian ended up throwing it 50 times. The only game this season where he’s attempted more than 35 passes. It’s also important to note that Kubiak calls the plays offensively and is one of the best in the league doing so.
I think we get a much different result here with a more focused Denver team. Especially playing at home, where they are 35-7 since the start of the 2012 season. I know revenge isn’t huge in the NFL, but I think this is a spot where it comes into play.
I also think it’s important to look at the line here. Just two weeks ago Denver was a 3-point road favorite at San Diego. Given home field advantage they should be around a 6.5-7 point home favorite. With the line currently at 4.5, we are getting 2+ points in value on the Broncos.
There could be some concern here with Denver losing starting running back C.J. Anderson. I don’t think it’s going to make a difference. Rookie Devontae Booker has actually been more effective this season. Booker is averaging 4.8 yards/carry, while Anderson was at 4.0 yards/carry.
I also think this is a tough spot San Diego. The Chargers have laid it all on the line the last two weeks against the Broncos and Falcons. They also aren’t going to surprise Denver with the wrinkles they threw into their offense the first time around.
While San Diego has won and covered in two straight. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win. The Chargers are also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Broncos are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win.
Marc Lawrence
Browns +3
Edges - Browns: 4-0 SUATS home vs losing AFC East foes in expansion history; and 11-1 ATS in first of back-to-back home games versus non-division opponents. Jets: 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS away versus AFC North opposition, including 0-6 SUATS the last six. With the Jets 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in games off a win before facing Miami, and Browns’ QB Josh McCown back in action, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Bruce Marshall
Seahawks at Saints
Pick: Over
New Orleans, with its porous defense and Drew Brees offense, usually has a chance as an underdog (11-3 last 14). No firm "price" on this game was known at our Sunday night deadline. What was known is that Russell Wilson's customary escapability was still hindered last week at Arizona by his early-season ankle and knee injuries. Brees is quite likely to put up more points than last week's six by the non-opportunistic Cardinals. Saints 9-2 "over" at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
DAVE COKIN
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO
PLAY: NEW ENGLAND -6.5
I don’t know that there’s much I need to say about this game. New England will be looking to avenge what they considered to be a very embarrassing home loss to Buffalo, as they were blanked by the Bills in that prior meeting.
For those who need a reminder, that was a game in which the Pats were seriously shorthanded, and they also played horribly. The Bills got to strut their stuff in the easy win, and let’s just say that Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan stayed in character following the shutout.
It’s a very obvious payback spot for a very strong New England entry. The Bills are likely to be without the services of LeSean McCoy, who was allowed to play last week and aggravated his hamstring injury in the process. No guarantee, but Ryan should have been smart enough to prohibit McCoy from playing a game they ended up losing anyway. Now he’s probably down for what is Buffalo’s biggest game of the season.
This appears to be a great situation for the powerful Patriots. So how come I left it off my card? Two reasons. The one that matters the most is the math. Off my calculations, I made this number Patriots -5.5, and I really don’t like playing games where I know I’m punting value based on my projections.
Then there’s the public factor. The books are getting inundated with New England money, not only on straight wagers, but teasers, parlays, and whatever else there might be available. It’s a literal avalanche in terms of the tickets. There could be a bit of sharp buyback in the morning, but I really can’t see this turning into a pros vs. joes battleground game. I will freely admit I’m almost always ultra-reluctant to side with the square NFL money when that faction is utterly convinced they have an easy winner.
All that said, I can only side with the Patriots as far as my opinion is concerned. There just isn’t anyone better than Bill Belichick when it comes to these scenarios. Plus, if Tom Brady and company have a chance to turn the screws on Ryan and the Bills, they will do exactly that. I’ll therefore go ahead and make the Patriots the Sunday free play.
Sleepyj
Cleveland +2.5
Look I know the Browns stink this year, but if they can manage to pull out a win, this would be one of the very few games to do it....As hard as it is to go undefeated in the NFL, it's just as hard to go win less IMO....Browns have a few nice players and the Jets haven't shown much this entire season...McNown will get the start and that alone might give the Browns a little life,..Can it really get any worse for the Browns this year?....Jets pass defense is very suspect and if McNown can connect with Pryor or Barnidge, they might just keep this game close..I won't be surprised if this comes down to a fg try to win it by 2 or lose it by 1....Something in my gut says try the Browns here....Jets might be looking for a HC if they keep playing bad and this would be a big headline come Monday morning..I'll take a chance with the Browns
Teddy Covers
New England vs. Buffalo
Play: New England -6½
The Patriots are a very different team now than they were when Buffalo came to Foxboro and shut them out last month. That game was all about Jacoby Brissett looking like a third string quarterback and the Pats feeling fat and happy after winning their first three games while Tom Brady was suspended. THIS game is all about New England taking firm control of a division that they’ve owned for the last decade and a half.
New England has dominated all three games since Brady’s return. The combination of a pair of elite pass catching tight ends (Gronk and Bennett) and a big, bruising back (LaGarrett Blount) has proven extremely tough to stop with Brady behind center. Belichick’s second look at this Rob Ryan defense is a recipe for success. And the likes of Tyrod Taylor and a banged up Shady McCoy simply aren’t capable of trading touchdowns with the Patriots for four quarters.
The Bills recent four game winning streak has left them a good notch or two overvalued. Just about everything broke right for Buffalo during that streak. They got Arizona in a flat spot, off a blowout win in an early start game on a bad day from Carson Palmer. They got the Pats with Brissett. They got the 49ers in their first game without defensive captain Navarro Bowman. And they beat the Rams on a day where LA was missing three of their four defensive line starters.
Even Buffalo’s three point loss at Miami last week is somewhat misleading. The Dolphins outgained the Bills by 1.8 yards per play. With the exception of one big play 67 yard TD and one garbage time score in the final seconds, the Bills offense didn’t move the football all afternoon. I’m not expecting that to change here in a game the Pats should win by a TD or more.
Mike Lundin
Jets vs. Browns
Play: Jets -125
The Cleveland Browns have lost all seven games this season and each of their last 10 last season included. The team is a mess and the Browns have already used five different quarterbacks on the season. Josh McCown is expected to get the nod under center today with Cody Kessler in concussion protocol after getting injured in last week's loss at Cincinnati.
Ryan Fitzpatrick opened the season as the Jets' starting QB, but was benched after a couple of particularly poor displays. He gets another chance as starting QB today as Geno Smith got injured last Sunday during the Jets' 24-16 victory over the Ravens. The last time Fitzpatrick returned to the lineup after being benched, he came back to throw six touchdown passes ... He has the fortune of coming up against a Cleveland defense that ranks 31st in total defense (425.6 yards per game) and 30th in scoring defense (29.6 points per game).
The Browns have dropped four games by double digits this season, including a 31-17 loss to the Bengals last Sunday. The Jets won last season's meeting 31-10, and I would not be surprised to see a double-digit win for the visitors here.
Ricky Tran
San Antonio vs. Miami
Play:San Antonio -6½
Spurs On Fire: San Antonio opened the season with a dominant 129-100 win at Golden State and rolled to its third straight win with a 98-79 victory against the Pelicans yesterday. The Spurs won despite resting veterans Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and the pair is expected to be back on the floor tonight.
Banged Up Whiteside: Miami blew a 19-point second-half lead in a 97-91 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday. Hassan Whiteside needed four stitches to close a cut on his left elbow and might be somewhat limited in this contest.
Previous Matchups: Spurs are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.
Scott Rickenbach
Redskins vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -3
The Redskins are off of a deflating defeat in the final seconds at Detroit last week. The Bengals are loaded with confidence after putting up 559 yards of offense last week thanks to facing the winless Browns. Cincinnati is on a 21-9 (70%) ATS run against the NFC and has faced a tougher schedule than the Redskins have so far this season. Prior to facing Cleveland last week, 4 of the Bengals last 5 games were facing tough opponents: Dallas, New England, Denver, and Pittsburgh. As for Washington, prior to last week's loss, their 4 game winning streak featured 4 teams who are now a combined 11-16 on the season. The Redskins are on an 0-6 ATS run when they are off of a loss and they are facing a team who is off of a win by a double digit margin. The Bengals won by 14 versus Cleveland last week and they'll ride the momentum from that victory to another W this week in London.
Larry Ness
Arizona vs. Carolina
Pick: Carolina
When the 2016 schedule was released, looking ahead to the Cardinals playing the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Week 8 was circled as one of the season’s marquee matchups. The Cardinals led the NFL in total offense in 2015 (408.3 YPG) and was second in scoring (30.6 YPG) when it arrived in Carolina last January but the Panther smothered Carson Palmer, forcing six turnovers (four interceptions and two lost fumbles). Palmer’s counterpart, league MVP Cam Newton, passed for 335 yards and two TDs plus ran for another two TDs as the Panthers rolled to a 49-15 victory.
However, with Week 8 of the current season now upon us, this highly-anticipated game will be played by a pair of teams, none of which own a winning record. The Cardinals (13-3 in 2015) are 3-3-1 after rolling up a season-high 443 total yards without a turnover last Sunday night out home against the Seahawks, yet were unable to win, having to settle for an unfulfilling tie. As for the Panthers, coming off a 15-1 season in 2015, Carolina limps in 1-5 SU and ATS. The Panthers offense has been good, ranking fifth in scoring (26.8 PPG) and fourth in total yards (390.3 YPG) but an NFL-high 16 turnovers means that the team just continues to shoot itself in the foot. The fall out has been especially telling on a defense which allowed a modest 19.3 PPG in 2015, but enters this contest allowing 29.3 per (ranks 29th)
Carson Palmer had a career season last year, passing for 4,671 yards with 35 TDs and 11 iNTS (104.6 QB rating) has been nowhere that good here in 2016, entering this game with only seven TDs (five INTs) and a QB rating of 83.4 (he’s missed one game due to a concussion suffered against the Rams in Week 4). Arizona has never had much of a running game but that’s a thing of the past these days, as David Johnson ranks second in the NFL in rushing (681 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs) plus has 28 catches, averaging 11.5 YPC. While Arizona’s offense is down more than a TD per game from 2015 (22.7 PPG, down from 30.6), the defense ranks 7th in total defense (289.6 YPG) and 5th in points allowed (15.7 PPG).
Cam Newton has taken most of the heat for this season's horrific start but that’s hardly fair. Bottom line is, there is no way to explain how a 15-1 regular season team, which went to Super Bowl in 2015, could possibly be 1-5 to open the following season. However, that’s exactly the situation the 2016 Panthers are in. Carson Palmer has won 11 of his last 13 road starts in the regular season but coming off a bye, I just can’t imagine that the Panthers won’t rise to this occasion and that’s my bet.