David Banks
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Pick: Eagles +5.5
The Philadelphia Eagles can move into a tie for first place in the NFC East Division with a win over current leader Dallas on Sunday night. The Eagles are on a bit of a roll after having beaten Minnesota, the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten, last week. The problem for Philadelphia is that they haven’t had much success against the Cowboys recently. In the last eight meetings between the two teams, Philadelphia has won just three times. One of those wins was the last time they met, a 33-27 Eagles victory in overtime at AT&T Stadium.
The Cowboys have not lost since their opener, which was also when starting quarterback Tony Romo went down with an injury. Romo is improving and was supposed to be ready to play against the Eagles, but Cowboys management and team doctors decided to give him at least one more week to recover. That means rookie sensation Dak Prescott will start again. Prescott, a second-round pick out of Mississippi State, has played well beyond his years. He has been efficient and careful with the football as evidenced by his one interception.
Dallas also has the NFL’s leading rusher in rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The Ohio State product has 703 yards rushing on the season and has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the past three games. The Eagles have a very good rookie of their own in quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles quarterback, much like his counterpart Prescott, has played more like a seasoned veteran than a first-year starter. He has been efficient and has made enough plays to help the offense average nearly 26 points per game. It will be the Eagles defense – third in the NFL in scoring defense (14.7 points per game) – that makes the difference on Sunday night.
Harry Bondi
San Diego / Denver Under 44
We’ll call for a low-scoring game today between two division rivals that have averaged just 34 points scored in the last four games and have gone under in six of the last eight meetings, including a dead-nuts under 21-13 final just three weeks ago. The Broncos have also gone under in 11 of their last 15 home games. Look for both teams to struggle passing the ball here today, leading to another under.
Vegas Butcher
WAS vs CIN -3
Another London game here. Watching this Bengals defense give up 5.6 YPP (Yards Per Play) to a Cleveland team that was playing with a “practice squad” level QB in Kevin Hogan for majority of the game and an ineffective playmaker in Pryor, I couldn’t help and think that this defense will get absolutely shredded by a competent offense. The total has shot from 46.5 to 49.5 now, which is a monster move. Clearly, someone out there thinks this one will be a very high scoring game, but with such a move, the pure value is on the under (My model has this one at 44 points). In any case, important to note that both Jordan Reed and Josh Norman will play in this one, as will Trent Williams, Washington’s best O-lineman. Norman’s health is crucial as he’s Washington’s best chance of slowing down AJ Green. While Reed’s return, provides a huge boost, against a Cincy defense that ranks 28th in defending the TE position. One other key factor in Washington’s favor is their 7th ranked pass-rush going up against 32nd ranked (in terms of pass-protection) Cincy O-line. The spread in the game indicates that Bengals are a ‘better’ team but from my perspective they’re not. I have Washington -1.5 on neutral field here, so with this many points of pure value it’s pretty obvious which way I’m leaning in this one. Lean: WAS +3
GB @ ATL -3
The spread was around 2.5 initially, so for it to get to 3, that’s a pretty significant move. The off-season line was ATL +4, so that tells you all you need to know in regards to how the Falcons’ season has gone so far. Packers have had 10-days to prepare for this one. They’re coming off a relatively easy win against the Bears, a game where Hoyer got hurt early. By comparison, Atlanta is off a tough loss in OT to San Diego. They’ve also played two tough road games in a row prior to last week, @ DEN and @ SEA. Green Bay was at home for 4 straight weeks, 5 if you include their BYE. One edge that they have in this game is their defense, which is top-10 in the league. Of course it’s important to note that Green Bay’s secondary is a total mess (tons of injuries), and Julio Jones should be able to exploit it at will. Overall, I see a competitive game here with neither defense having too much success against the opposing offense. With either team having a chance to win it late, points are appealing in this one. (By the way, just learned that Cobb is out…big loss for this Green Bay offense) Lean: GB +3
DET @ HOU -1.5
This line is dropping faster than Donald Trump’s numbers in the polls, as I see some -1’s and even +1’s popping up. The Texans looked awful on MNF, but they’ve looked awful two other times this year (27-0 @ NE in week 3 and 31-13 @ MIN in week 6), and bounced back with wins against TEN and IND at home the following week. This team is actually 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road (@ NE, @ MIN, and @ DEN – three of the best teams in the NFL). Can they bounce-back on a short-week? Detroit is already without its best LB Levy, but now they’ll be without their best CB as Slay is out. This a team that already ranks 32nd against the pass defensively, and now they’ll be missing their stud CB. If Hopkins and Fuller are ever going to breakout, this is the game. One issue for the Texans though is that their dynamic RB, Lamar Miller, is hobbled with a shoulder injury he sustained on Monday. He didn’t sound very confident like he’ll be anywhere close to 100%, even if he ends up playing. Regardless, no matter how good the playmakers are on the Texans, they are being led by one of the worst, if not THE worst, starting QB in the league. Osweiler has been awful, registering a 30th rank in DVOA, 26th in QBR, and 43rd in PY/A with 5.0. By comparison, Stafford’s PY/A is at 7.0, a full 2 yards per attempt higher. Stafford is also getting Riddick and Ebron back, so he’ll have a full complement of his weapons. My model has this game at 23-23 and with the spread being around 1, clearly there’s no line-value on any team here. I’ve wasted 300 words on this breakdown, but you don’t have to waste any more time on studying this matchup. It’s an easy pass. PASS
SEA @ NO +2
Watching that SEA @ ARZ Sunday night game last week, I made a mental note to fade the Seahawks in week 8…before I even knew where they were playing and against whom. Well, their opponent is New Orleans of course, and they’re the home team. We all know that Drew Brees is an absolute maestro in the Superdome, and he’s catching Seattle at the right time. Seahawks defense was on the filed for over 46 minutes last week (95 defensive snaps!), and afterwards they were absolutely exhausted. Richard Sherman could barely walk to the locker room. Now the Seahawks are going to be without Michael Bennett, their best pass rusher. They’ll also be without Kam Chacellor, as he’s missed a couple of weeks now. To make things worse, Seattle is playing in the dreaded 1 PM EST time slot, which is never easy for a West Coast team. After such an intense game last week, I expect to see a natural decline in efficiency out of the Seahawks this week. Playing on the road, in a 1 PM slot, and missing a number of key defenders won’t help. And let’s not forget that Russell Wilson is not the same weapon without his full ability to utilize his legs. I like the Saints as an underdog in this spot. Lean: NO +2
NE @ BUF +6.5
Last week the Pats were -7 @ Pittsburgh, with Landry at QB. This week they’re -6.5 @ Buffalo? It’s interesting because the Pats are very clearly over-rated. Even so, the public is almost 90% on them. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. In any case, the task for the Bills is tougher since McCoy is out as is Aaron Williams, their free safety. But there’s a couple of things that the Bills do well that could create issues for NE. First, they’re an elite pass-rushing team, ranking 2nd in ASR%. Tom Brady doesn’t like pressure (no QB does), and if the Bills are to pull an upset they need to bring it early and often. Second, Tyrod Taylor is dynamic passing and rushing, thus making it pretty difficult for this 18th ranked NE defense. Pats also rank 31st in rushing the passer and 25th in defending the pass overall, so Taylor should have plenty of time to make plays in this game. And finally, the Bills are at home, yet they’re ‘almost’ a TD underdog. The value points clearly on the home team here, there’s no doubt about that. But, let’s not forget that Buffalo is without McCoy, without Sammy Watkins, without Marquise Goodwin (injured last week), and are just getting Robert Woods back after he missed a few weeks. This is an offense that is highly devoid of talent and I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep up with New England’s. I’m sure this is a big game for the Pats, as they don’t like losing to anyone, and it’s hard to see them lose twice to the Bills this year. PASS
NYJ @ CLE +2
It’s almost impossible for an NFL team to go winless in a season. And if Cleveland is going to win a game, this is the week to do it. First of all, they’re facing off against a bottom-5 team in the Jets. Second of all, they’re getting healthier. Corner-backs Haden, Burley, and Taylor should play this week, which is a big factor of course. And finally, Josh McCown is back also. He’s the best QB on the roster, and even in his lone start this year, showed what he’s capable of doing. Cleveland was up 20-0 on the Ravens with McCown throwing strikes all over the field. Of course he got hurt, Cleveland failed to score another point, and somehow the Ravens were able to come away with a win on the road. To make things even better for the Browns, Jets will be without Mangold and Qvale, weaking their O-line. Also, Muhammad Wilkerson is GTD, and he’d be a big loss. The Jets are coming off a come-from-behind win against a bad Baltimore team last week, but I think the Browns are going to give them a fight. Regardless, there’s value on Cleveland as a home underdog this week. Lean: CLE +2
OAK @ TB +1
After playing the Jaguars last week, Oakland stayed in Florida for this game. So the 1 PM EST start time shouldn’t be a factor for them. Tampa actually did more travel this week than the Raiders, coming back Sunday night from San Francisco after their win there. Actually, the Bucs are 2-0 their last two games, though they faced a bad CAR team without Newton and an even worse SF team, with Kaepernick, in those two. Oakland is a ‘step up’ in class, as the Raiders are a league-average squad. They’re a better team than the Bucs, though of course the spread already accounts for that. Lean: OAK -1
KC @ IND +3
Luck is getting Moncrief and Dorsett back this week, which should make this offense much more dangerous going forward. I doubt KC with their 25th ranked pass-rush, can slow them down on the road. They allowed 6.5 YPP to the Saints at home last week, and were probably fortunate to hold on to a win in that contest (2:0 TO margin plus an INT-return for TD for KC). If KC plays the same way on the road this week, they’ll lose. That’s why this current spread (even if odds are inflated a bit on the 3) is so appealing. I have IND -2 in this game. Lean: IND +3
SD @ DEN -4
The spread has gone from -6 to -4 now. In the off-season this line was -7 DEN. If that’s ‘too old’ for your liking, the spread two weeks ago was -3 DEN, when they played in San Diego on TNF Now with a full week to prepare and playing at home, the number is only 1 point higher? Also important to note that Denver was coached by ST coordinator in that game, as Kubiak had to sit it out due to health reasons. It was also Siemian’s return, after he missed the previous week with an injury. Two ST’s turnovers by Denver didn’t help matters either. The D played great though, holding the Chargers to 19 points, mostly FG’s (1 TD allowed), and only 4.4 YPP. So where am I going with all this? Well, the Broncos should be in a much different shape for the rematch. Kubiak will be the coach, Siemian had a few weeks to get back in the groove, and the team isn’t traveling on a very short week. Expect Denver to perform much better than they did in the first meeting. Lean: DEN -4
ARZ @ CAR -3
Full disclosure, I was going to back the Panthers in this game, as I fully expected them to be a listed underdog. Alas, they’re actually a favorite, and a 3-point one at that. Basically the spread is indicating that Panthers are an equal team to the Cardinals in this matchup if you account for 3-points being given for home edge. That’s clearly not the case, and I think this is way too many points that the visitors are getting here. This is also a ‘revenge’ sort of a game for the Cards, after getting embarrassed by the Panthers in last year’s post-season. Arizona is getting John Brown back, which is a huge factor, as this Carolina secondary can’t cover anyone. His deep speed will open up the field for Fitzgerald and David Johnson to work the underneath routes and of course out of the backfield. Arizona’s elite defense (#4 overall, #2 against the pass, #9 pass-rush) is the biggest factor in this matchup, and should keep them in this game, even against a team coming off it’s BYE. Lean: ARZ +3
Dr Bob
Washington Redskins vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals and Redskins head to the Wembley pitch for a reunion between Marvin Lewis and his former OC Jay Gruden. Baby Gruden has his offense playing at high-level, averaging 6.2 yards per play, good for 6th in the NFL on an adjusted basis. In the past 4 games, the Redskins defense has also stepped it up, holding each team to 20 points or less. On the other side, the (3-4) Bengals have not been a team that is able to step up to opponents with winning records, only winning games against the Jets, Dolphins and Browns and only averaging 16 points per game in their losses. The improvement in the Redskins defense is the difference in the game and the numbers show value on the UNDER, so UNDER (47) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Redskins (+3).
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
In his 8th year in the league, Fratty Stafford has quietly emerged as one of the best signal callers in the league under coach JB Cooter. With the 7th ranked passing offense, averaging 7.0 NYPP and 50.1% success rate, the Lions have been consistent and explosive through the air. The offense has overcome a Detroit defense which has been one of the worst in the league (ranking 29th in the league in adjusted yards per play allowed), winning their last three and now they get to face Brock Osweiller. Brock Osweiller has had 8 TDs and 8 INTs with a 5.2 NYPP ranking him dead last in the league for qualified passers (Kaepernick just misses the cut). Even with the terrible offense, the Texans defense has managed to play at an above average level, holding every opponent under a 50% success rate. The advanced stats model sees the road dog and value on the UNDER so we have Strong Opinions on the Lions (+2.5) and UNDER (45).
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Tom Brady has been on his seemingly annual NFL revenge tour, averaging a punisher like 9.4 NYPP through 3 games. However, the Pats defense has continued to show weakness and Rex Ryan has the Bills playing a successful style of smash mouth football, ranking #1 in adjusted rushing offense, while running the ball 49% of the time. Our advanced stats model tells us to lay off the side and total. A small sample Bill Belichick trend is that New England is 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in same-season revenge against a division opponent going back to 2000 (Belichick’s first season).
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
The veteran journeymen quarterback extravaganza pits two signal callers who have played for a combined 13 teams, or a jersey for each disciple plus Jesus himself. Josh McCown and Fitzy square off in a battle which could be one of the pad-your-stats game against porous defenses that keeps these QBs in the league. As the Jets defense ranks 30th in NYPP allowed and the Browns D is right behind, ranking 31st. An interesting matchup that these two teams excel at is the Jets Run D (as they are the best in the league, holding teams to 2.9 YPR) vs. the Browns rushing offense, which has averaged 4.8 YPR, ranking them 2nd in the NFL. The advanced stats model sees value on the Over and road chalk, so OVER (43.5) is a Strong Opinion and a lean to the Jets (-3).
Brandon Lee
Patriots -5.5
I'm backing the Patriots at Buffalo on Sunday. Since Belichick took over in New England the Pats have never been swept by the Bills in the same season. I'm banking on that trend continuing here. New England is going to come out looking to embarrass the Buffalo after losing on their home field agains them earlier this season. I just don't see the Bills defense being able to contain Brady and company in this one. At the same time, Buffalo's offense is dealing with some significant injuries that are going to make it hard for them to keep pace. Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games during Weeks 5 thru 9 and 28-13 ATS in their last 41 when revenging a loss.
Ray Monohan
Washington / Calgary Over 5½
The Flames look to stay hot here as they take on Washington on Sunday night.
Here, the Over has value. Calgary continues to be an extremely fast paced team. The Flames have put in 9 goals over their last 2 games and continue to keep the pressure on when it comes to rebounds.
As for their defense, they'll be in for a lot of trouble tonight. The Caps have so many weapons on each line, that will certainly cause fits for the Flames defense.
Some trends to note. Over is 7-0 in Flames last 7 home games. Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Calgary. Over is 9-3-2 in Capitals last 14 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Expect back and forth action with a lot of pace and shots here, resulting in many tallies.
Jack Jones
Colts +3
The Indianapolis Colts are catching points at home Sunday when they shouldn't be. They're just 3-4 on the season, but only one game back of the Houston Texans in the division, so they are right there.
The thing about their record is that they could have won all four games they lost. They only lost by 4 to Detroit after blowing a late lead, they were driving for the winning score against the Broncos on the road before a pick-6, they only lost by 3 to the Jaguars in London, and they blew a 23-9 lead in the final minutes to lose in OT at Houston.
Indianapolis is 2-1 at home this season with wins over San Diego and Chicago, the only loss being Detroit in the opener. Andrew Luck is 8-0 ATS as a home underdog in his career, which includes seven outright wins. Time and time again he and the Colts have been undervalued at home.
The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs a team with a losing record. Indianapolis is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +160 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. According to the Sagarin ratings, Toronto has played the toughest schedule in the NHL and yet they are outplaying almost every team they face. Only once have the Maple Leafs lost the battle of high quality scoring chances. They have unfortunately run into a slew of hot goaltenders, including Carey Price last night in a game the Leafs were clearly the better team in. Toronto ranks high in every metric for and against and it’s only a matter of time until they start paying off. The Leafs are taking back a big price here for two reasons. First, their record is unimpressive but anyone that watches this game understands how dangerous they are. Secondly and the bigger factor is that the Leafs will play their fourth game in six nights, third in four and tail-end of back-to-backs. This is a young and hungry group that is highly energized and we’re not going to put a lot of weight on their schedule. Toronto will face weaker goaltending here and therefore, one, two or more players might go off.
Meanwhile, the Islanders come in 3-5 but they are 1-5 against top-16 teams. They are among the riskiest favorites in the league because they’re just so average. The Islanders are second last in the NHL in Corsi for %, which means only the Coyotes are worse in shots directed towards the net differential. The Islanders are dead last in Corsi against with 405 shots directed at their net. To put that into perspective, the ‘Canes are first at 205. The Islanders may have a scheduling edge here but that will not even come close to preventing us from taking back a tag with the superior team here.
Buffalo +150 over WINNIPEG
OT included. We have discussed the Jets plenty this year already and our position on this team remains the same. Winnipeg’s parts are better than its sum, thus, they remain a very live dog and a very risky favorite, therefore we’ll play or fade them accordingly.
Winnipeg is coming off back-to-back victories over Dallas and Colorado. They were outshot in both and badly outshot (37-21) in Colorado. After the first period in Colorado, Winnipeg was running around in its own end for the final two periods and only the miraculous goaltending of Michael Hutchison prevented them from losing. Dallas fired away 39 shots on the Jets on Thursday night. Chasing the puck and defending is tiresome work. The Jets now go from being at home to Colorado to being back at home in the span of four days. It is also their fourth game in six nights and for a team that doesn’t always show up and plays with little discipline, taking back a price like this against them almost always makes sense, especially when fatigue will likely be a factor.
The Sabres are high on our radar as one of the most undervalued teams in the league. The Sabres, unlike the Jets, are consistent, as they almost always give a 100 percent honest effort and they are going to start paying off soon. Buffalo defeated Florida yesterday 3-0 after four straight losses so that lifts a weight off of their shoulders. The previous game against the Wild, the Sabres lost 4-0 but dominated play and outshot Minnesota 38-22 and out-chanced them 21-6. Three of the Sabres last four losses were all by one goal and all of them came on the road. In Philadelphia two games ago, Buffalo had a 3-0 lead late in the third but lost 4-3 in OT. The Sabres are 2-3-2 but we could easily be discussing a 6-1 team. They are also the only team to defeat Edmonton this year so of course they have the ability to defeat Winnipeg, especially in the likely event that the Jets take some bad penalties and play soft in two of three periods.
Los Angeles +155 over CHICAGO
OT included. The best possession team in the NHL? Los Angeles. The best defensive team in the NHL? Los Angeles. In fact, the Kings are allowing the least amount of high quality chances in the league and they are also only allowing eight shots on net per period. Why then are the Kings just 4-4 after eight games? One only needs to look at their PDO, which ranks dead last in the NHL. PDO combines shooting percentage with save percentage to give each team a luck factor score and in that regard, the Kings have been the unluckiest team in the NHL. It is extremely unlikely that the Kings will get out-played or out-anythinged here.
Chicago is also 4-4 but according to the Sagariin ratings, it has played the easiest schedule (ranked 30) in the NHL. Despite the easy schedule, Chicago continues to get out-played almost every night. Only six teams out of 30 have allowed more high quality scoring chances than the Blackhawks. Chicago is quite simply not the same strong team as they were in previous seasons. When the Blackhawks were elite, they were never in this price range against the Kings. Well, they are not elite anymore but the Kings are absolutely still in the upper echelon. Biggest overlay on the board today.
Stephen Nover
Eagles at Cowboys
Play: Eagles +5
This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry.
The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS the past 15 times they've been a home favorite. The Eagles have defeated Dallas in five of the last six meetings, including the past three times on the road.
Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott both have exceeded expectations. The Cowboys have the better skill position players, but I like the Eagles defense better.
The Cowboys lack a pass rush. They have just nine sacks. The Eagles' defense has been much better than perceived ranking third in fewest points and fifth in yards allowed.
Dallas had a bye last week. That could work against the Cowboys as they had plenty of momentum before then. Too many times a team goes into their bye on a roll, hears how great they are and than is flat the following week. It happened to the Eagles and it just happened to the Vikings this past Sunday.
Bob Balfe
Patriots -5
The Bills rocked New England earlier this year and even talked trash in the process. Not a smart idea. Brady was not in that game and this team is going to get their revenge today. The Bills front seven on defense is a mess with injury right now and I don’t see how they stop this offense today. On the offensive side Buffalo has no running game and just about every key receiver is hurt. This is a banged up football team, but Belichick and Brady will show no mercy.
Cubs -1.5 -110
The Cubs have the better pitcher on the mound and should get a big victory today. This series is not over by any means. I would hate to see the city of Chicago get swept at home in 3 straight nights after they waited 100 years for a world series. Chicago will find their bats tonight and if they can get it back to Cleveland anything can happen.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Sunday is on the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons going Over the posted number. This has the makings of big shootout, between two powerful and explosive offenses.
Though the Packers have stayed under in four of their six games this season, the Falcons come in having soared in six of their last seven. And we all know at some point, Green Bay's offense will come alive this season.
Today would be as good a day as any, with the Falcons boasting the league's No. 1 offense, led by the NFL's No. 2 passing game. Green Bay is sure to get a spark with its offense, which normally is one of the league's best in terms of stats, but is ranked just 21st right now.
Green Bay has won its last four games against the Falcons, a streak that began with a 48-21 playoff blowout during the 2010 season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is in after a franchise-record 39 completions in a Week 7 victory over Chicago.
The offense will come together, and we'll get a show inside the Georgia Dome tonight, with both Rodgers and Atlanta QB Matt Ryan firing on all cylinders.
Ryan has thrown for at least 200 yards in an NFL-record 46 consecutive games. His main target is Julio Jones, who has 40 receptions for 830 yards, more than twice as many catches as anyone else on the team.
The Falcons lead the NFL with 32.7 points and 433.6 yards per game, so pushing the tempo won't be a problem.
Take this one high today.
2* Packers/Falcons Over
Brett Atkins
I smell a "trap" as New England heads to Buffalo with plenty of fire after getting shutout by Rex Ryan's Bills, 16-0 back on Week Four when Tom Brady was serving his suspension, and Jacob Brissett was playing with an injured thumb.
The Pats have won their last 3 games, all by double-digits, so you wonder why this price is not a little higher, especially with LeSean McCoy now slowed by his latest hamstring injury???
Buffalo is off a road loss in Miami, so you would tend to think this one looks like the play of the century to back the Patriots as the road chalk, but keep in mind that Rex Ryan does sport at 6-2-1 spread mark the last 9 times he has faced Bill Belichick, and also keep in mind the Patriots are only 5-13 their last 18 as the road favorite.
This one seems way too obvious, so mark me down for the "against the grain" comp play on the home underdog Bills.
1* BUFFALO
Bob Valentino
Yesterday I gave you a shocker, with Wyoming winning outright over Boise State. Now I'm coming with another home underdog, as I like the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets as my free play for Sunday.
I'm not going to get too long-winded for this one, as it comes down to a couple of things, and I won't expound on the intangibles I am about to point out - just know I'm holding steadfast with these reasons...
First of all, the Jets are having just as many quarterback problems as Cleveland, so I don't think there is any edge. Put this game in Jersey, and I would tell you the Jets have an edge. But in Believeland, the Browns are going to be fired up defensively, knowing they can bully the weakened Jets around.
Speaking of Believeland, we have a city that not too long ago enjoyed an NBA championship and last week enjoyed the ring ceremony. Now there are the Indians on the cusp of winning the World Series, leading the Cubs 3 games to 1. And if you don't think that kind of energy is spilling over positively to the Browns, well you're insane. It's up to the Browns to feed off that edge, and I think this is a great spot to do so. The Tribe has one more game in Chicago, so those rabid sports fans need to go somewhere today.
Finally, the due theory. Cleveland needs a win. It will put together its best effort of the season, it will give us balance all around, on offense, defense and special teams, and it will dominate an equally weak Jets team that will be overmatched.
I don't care about anything else. Those intangibles are enough for me to take the Browns and look for them to score their first win.
5* CLEVELAND
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Sunday is on the Under in the AFC West battle between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos tonight in the Mile High City.
San Diego and Denver are meeting up for the second time in 18 days, and as much as I'd like to take the Broncos in this one - in revenge - I think the Under is the better play. I anticipate a big defensive effort here, as there will be a physical battle ensuing.
The Chargers used to be a team that choked and staggered to the finish line, but is now a team that looks to be in the thick of a tight AFC West race. On the other hand, the Broncos have their coach back and finally have a healthy quarterback.
Both defenses will be on alert for this one, as the key is to slow one another and keep the potentially explosive offensive units in check.
I expect much better play out of Denver linebacker Brandon Marshall this time around, and think we're going to see San Diego's defensive front applying pressure the entire game.
This rivalry already got heated up a couple weeks ago with the Bolts shutting down Denver. Now both will be defensive and will keep this one low.
5* Broncos/Chargers Under
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play is the underdog Cardinals in their NFC Championship rematch with the Panthers.
Last January, Carolina embarrassed Arizona, 49-15 for the right to advance to the Super Bowl. My how things have changed in 10 short months, as Arizona is off that bizzarre 6-6 tie at home last Sunday night against Seattle, as they are just 3-3-1 through 7 games played. Carolina is off their bye, and after losing just one regular season game all year long last season, they have just one win through their first 6 games played!
Interested in grabbing a few points with the Redbirds who are 13-6 as the regular season underdog since 2013, while the Panthers are 1-5 against the spread this season as the favorite.
It's obvious that last year's success went straight to the heads of the Carolina Panthers, and until I see some positive body language from their leader Cam Newton, I will play against Carolina.
Jump on 'Zona as they head to the break with the cover.
3* ARIZONA