Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 8th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

CHARGERS VS. GIANTS
PLAY: CHARGERS +3.5

It doesn’t get much uglier than this. The 0-4 Chargers hit the road to take on the 0-4 Giants. The Chargers are doing what the Chargers do. They’re in every game but manage to find ways to lose, game after game after game.

As for the Giants, they’re just downright ugly. Yes, they could easily be 2-2 with back to back very tough losses in Weeks Three and Four. But I’m just not seeing much to be optimistic about with this team. In spite of a satisfactory debut last season, I have to think the Ben McAdoo coaching seat is starting to get a little warm.

The good news for these two entries is that one of them has to be break through and record a victory on Sunday. Oh wait, there’s always the possibility of a tie, isn’t there? That’s actually not an outlandish thought.

There are two factors that point me to the visitor’s side in this classic. One is that overall, I think the Chargers have been the better team through the season’s first four weeks. The other is the fact that LA is on the road. The Chargers have no home field advantage. I’m literally giving them zero points as far as that variable is concerned. I actually expect the team to perform better on the road, where they know they’re the visitors, than at “home”, where they’re received by the majority of fans as the virtual visitors.

This line has ticked down a bit from where it opened, and I have to agree with that movement. So there’s not optimum value here, but at more than a FG I would still side with the Chargers. plus the points.

Vernon Croy

Oakland (-2.5) over Baltimore

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games played between these two teams, and the Ravens are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. The Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after putting up less than 15 points in their previous game, and they will have a much easier task this week against this Ravens secondary. The Ravens are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after a double-digit loss at home and they have allowed 35 ppg over their last two games.

Allen Eastman

Philadelphia (-6.5) over Arizona

I think that Philadelphia will get some revenge against the Cardinals in this one. The last time they played Arizona won 40-17 here in 2015. Arizona has won five of six meetings, and they are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. But I like the home team here. Arizona has not looked good this year. Their two losses were both by double-digits to Dallas and Detroit. Their two wins were both in overtime against San Francisco and Indianapolis. Arizona is going to continue to struggle against good teams. The Cardinals are 4-12 ATS against teams with a winning record and just 2-6 ATS on the road. The Eagles are on a 5-2 ATS run, and I think that they will win this one in a blowout here.

Alex Smart

Bills vs. Bengals
Play: Under 39

The Bills defense continues to look strong as was the case last week in the win over the Falcons, holding Matt Ryan to 242 passing yards and in the previous week held down a good Broncos team for 17 points in a home win. The Bills D, has been solid allowing an average of 13.5 ppg and I'm betting on more of the same this week vs a Bengals offense that despite of unloading vs lowly Cleveland last week for 31 points, did not score a TD in their first two games and are averaging just 16 ppg in offensive production. Meanwhile, The Bengals defense that is allowing 16.7 ppg had no problem against the Browns nasty offense last week, allowing only 215 total yards, which included allowing just 45 rushing yards. Their defense has been of the top tier variety in three of their four games and i'm betting will once again be stoppers this week vs Buffalos conservative attack. With that said, I'm expecting a combined score that does not eclipse the total.

CINCINNATI is 16-4 UNDER L/20 after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games .CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER L/14 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a combined average of 36 ppg getting scored. Both these teams have gone under in 4 of their 4 games.

NFL Road teams against the total like the Bills - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team ( 75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 23-4 UNDER dating back 5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total like the Bengals - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

John Martin

Cardinals vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -6½

The Arizona Cardinals are fortunate to be 2-2 this season. Their two wins both came in overtime against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Colts and 49ers. Now they are taking on one of the best teams in the NFL in the Philadelphia Eagles on the road this week, and I expect them to get their teeth kicked in here. The Eagles have a tremendous pass rush that will get after Carson Palmer and his injury-ravaged offensive line, which will be the difference in this game. Carson Wentz will take another step forward here as he leads the Eagles to an easy victory by a touchdown or more.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Panthers (3-1) at Lions (3-1)

These two might share identical records but while doubts remain with the Lions, it is the Panthers could be the imposter among these two felines. Carolina grabbed everyone’s attention this past week when they went into New England and as a nine-point underdog, knocked off the host Patriots. QB Cam Newton appeared to have awaken from a Van Winkle-like slumber in leading his team past the champs. But let’s not fool ourselves. The Patriots have major issues on their pass defence. The Panthers were able to exploit the leaky secondary without TE Greg Olsen and with top C Ryan Kalil on the shelf. Prior to the 33-point outburst a week ago, Carolina was averaging just 15 points per game. They won’t have an easy time of it against unheralded Detroit. The Lions have been underdogs in all four of their games and have three straight up victories to go along with near miss in controversial ending against Atlanta. Leos have covered 11 of past 15 here as home faves. Home cats get the nod. TAKING: LIONS –2½

Packers (3-1) at Cowboys (2-2)

The Packers travel for only the second time this season with the first trip resulting in a 34-23 pounding at Atlanta. Green Bay has been able to hide its cluster of injury problem against teams like the Bengals and Bears but it’s very likely that the truth gets revealed in this one. First area of concern is the offensive line that has not faced a pass rush like the Cowboys will deploy upon Aaron Rodgers. The Packers don’t have tackles playing their natural position, forcing them to go with a line full of guards. That has had Rodgers on his back 15 times already, good for fourth most overall. Green Bay is also thin at cornerback and at running back. Dallas QB Dak Prescott should be able to take advantage of his opponent’s woes as he has the playmakers in the passing game and is afforded the luxury of having Ezekiel Elliott in his backfield. The ’Boys are revenge minded from last year’s playoff loss and they have next week off, allowing for full focus here. TAKING: COWBOYS -2½

Chiefs (4-0) at Texans (2-2)

In dire need of a quarterback, the Texans grabbed Deshaun Watson 12th overall in the 2017 entry draft. That selection currently has them happier than someone that saved money on car insurance. Just 22 years old, Watson has grown up quickly in this fast paced NFL. Two games after supplanting useless Tom Savage, the former Clemson star exploded for four touchdown passes while running for another in a 57-14 lambasting of the Titans. We don’t expect anything close to that against undefeated Chiefs but with Houston’s solid defence now having some faith in its offence, this could be a turning point for the formerly quarterback starved Texans. A mismatch could be in the making here as well with J.J. Watt possibly lining up against subpar backup lineman Jordan Devey after Alex Smith protector Laurent Duvernay-Tardif hurt his knee last week. The Chiefs are travelling on a short week after physical battle with Redskins and they will be asked to spot their host some points. Texans 10-4-1 vs. spread past 15 regular-season games here. TAKING: TEXANS +1

THE REST

Chargers (0-4) at Giants (0-4)

One of these two is going to 0-5. Ouch. Hard to endorse either of these clubs as both have had a difficult time finding ways to win games while producing interesting ways to lose them. Not anxious to be giving away points with the home club but the Bolts have been money guzzlers with an 0-7-1 against the spread (ATS) mark in their previous eight games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five road games. The Giants are home for just second time this season after road games in Dallas, Philly and Tampa Bay. This will be New York’s first matchup against a losing club. The Giants have failed to protect fourth-quarter leads each of the past two weeks with both games ending on walk-off field goals. Situation is right for a change of fortune. TAKING: GIANTS -3

Bills (3-1) at Bengals (1-3)

Mr. Oddsmaker doesn’t quite believe in first-place Buffalo, sending it out as a field-goal underdog to a 1-3 Cincinnati club whose only win was against sad sack Browns. Hmmmm, what does that tell you? It reminds us that you rarely get what you see or see what you get in the zany NFL. That philosophy has us leaning to the home team after witnessing a recent upgrade in play since canning an embarrassing offensive co-ordinator and also knowing that the Bills are a different animal when leaving upstate New York, with just 11 covers in past 29 tries as a road underdog. Cincy feeling better about themselves after horrific start. They return home after two away which included a tough overtime loss at Lambeau and a lopsided victory at Cleveland. Strong indicators point to the home fave. TAKING: BENGALS -3

Jets (2-2) at Browns (0-4)

One website defines ‘glutton for punishment’ as “a person who is eager to get involved with a situation that have unpleasant results. And another one. And another one. And then another one”. So please forgive us for backing the Browns here. We just don’t see Cleveland or any other club for that matter going 0-16 this season. If the Browns are to pick up a win, it has to be against a visiting foe such as this one. Granted, the Jets are on a two-game win streak but both of those victories occurred at home where the Jets were host underdogs. Two road games have produced a 0-2 mark with Gang Green being outscored 66-32. The Browns employ some talented players. Stop laughing, they really do. The Jets have a shabby roster that is difficult to get behind when not receiving points. TAKING: BROWNS -1

Jaguars (2-2) at Steelers (3-1)

Handicapping the NFL is not as simple as just going against bad quarterbacks. If that were the case, Blake Bortles led teams would never have a wager placed upon them. Bortles simply can’t play the position. Take last week for example. In the final 36 minutes in loss to the Jets, Bortles was 8 of 23 for 59 yards and an interception. His last nine passes were all incomplete. Having that guy at the helm is very demoralizing. It might explain the extreme highs and lows that the Jags have experienced, winning two games by combined 73-14 while losing two by a combined 60-36. While this pointspread may seem a bit steep with Steelers not quite right, Pittsburgh does excel on its own field (averaging 29 points scored past 14 games here) and will be at home after playing three of four away. TAKING: STEELERS –8½

49ers (0-4) at Colts (1-3)

This isn’t the cereal aisle at the supermarket. There are only two choices here. Our selection is more of a condemnation than anything else as we simply cannot give away any points with this Indianapolis team. If we did it with Cleveland (see above), why can’t we do it here? Simple. Indy’s defence is a marshmallow group that has allowed a league-high 136 points in four games. San Francisco has been knocking at the door with past three games being decided by three points or less, all being winnable (vs. Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals). Those defeats all provided covers with Niners now a money making five of past six versus spread. Five games in to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes, the 49ers should be ready to crack the win column. TAKING: 49ERS +1½

Cardinals (2-2) at Eagles (3-1)

The demise of the Cardinals is happening before our eyes while the Eagles have replaced Arizona as a legitimate NFC contender. Philadelphia is receiving strong line play on both sides of the ball and that has led to a good start for this well balanced team. Meanwhile, Arizona can’t get out of its own way. Losing RB David Johnson has immobilized the offence and adding to its woes is a banged up offensive line, leaving statue-like Carson Palmer exposed to danger. Bruce Arians’ club sits at .500 with pair of equal wins and losses but the victories required overtime games against both weak sister Colts and 49ers. Facing two non-losing teams (Detroit and Dallas) resulted in double-digit losses on both occasions. With a strong pass rush and Arizona’s inability to stop it, it wouldn’t surprise to see Philadelphia hand its visitors another one-sided loss. TAKING: EAGLES –6½

Seahawks (2-2) at Rams (3-1)

The Rams have been a thorn in Seattle’s side even during the Seahawks’ recent heydays. The Rams have won three of past four in this series, including the past two as hosts and have covered five straight as home team. Will be interesting to see if the same holds true with Rams seemingly on the rise and Seattle in some turmoil. The Seabirds have never been the best travellers and that is holding true again this year as they are 0-2 away from CenturyLink. Of more concern is Seattle’s offensive front line, a unit that has had trouble protecting QB Russell Wilson and now must create holes for a committee of running backs. The Seahawks might be able to make that work against the Colts of this world but against any decent defence, there will be struggles. New coach has Rams offence producing wins. This one will be most satisfying yet. TAKING: RAMS at Pick’em

Ravens (2-2) at Raiders (2-2)

With QB Derek Carr sidelined with a back injury, EJ ‘I need a’ Manuel will start under centre for the Raiders. While Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has not been very productive this season, still have to lean his way here as there Manuel should not be spotting points to too many teams. Perhaps Manuel was OK in relief last week but his history hardly resonates with success. The fifth year pro will make just his second start since the end of the 2015 season and he hasn’t had a win since the opening month of 2014. We saw what happened when MVP candidate Carr was hurt at the end of last year when his team lost two games by a combined 51-20 including a loss to Brock Osweiler led Texans. Ravens in a scoring funk but shouldn’t need much here to offset damaged host. TAKING: RAVENS +2½

Dr Bob

Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants

Lean – Los Angeles Chargers (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants could only manage 3.3 yards per rush last week in Tampa Bay, which actually raised their season average up to 3.2. New York is on pace to have the worst running attack of any team since 2000 according to my metrics. Teams have been able to hurt the Chargers on the ground this year whose rush defense ranks 27th in my numbers, but I don’t expect the Giants to pose much of a problem.

For the second time in three weeks, the Chargers were unlucky to lose a close game at home. Los Angeles outgained Philadelphia 7.5 yppl to 6.1 yppl, but were unfortunate to fumble in Eagles’ territory on the game’s opening drive and couldn’t stop the Eagles on the ground in the game’s closing drive where Philadelphia held the ball for the last 6:44 of the 4th quarter.

This looks like a good match-up for the Chargers’ defense, as that unit has actually been the league’s 3rd best team at getting to the quarterback this year with a sack rate of 9.5% yet opponents are throwing the ball against Los Angeles less often than any other team – so the Chargers pass rush hasn’t gotten very many opportunities. The Giants’ pass-heavy play calling and bad offensive line should be a good matchup for Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and company to exploit.

Both teams are 0-4 but 5 of their 8 combined games have been decided by a field goal or less – I expect another close game on Sunday where one team finally gets in the win column. I’d lean with the Chargers at +3 points or more.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

CINCINNATI (-3) vs Buffalo

The Bengals looked impressive in Cleveland and had the most convincing win of the week in my metrics. Andy Dalton led the Cincinnati passing offense to 8.0 yppp and had nearly as many touchdowns as incompletions. However, this week won’t be as easy going against a Bills pass defense ranked 4th according to my numbers.

Buffalo was lucky to beat Atlanta, as they were outgained 4.8 yppl to 5.4 yppl, with the difference was the +3 turnover margin, one of which was a controversial strip-sack returned for a touchdown. The Bills averaged 7.1 yppp, but only 3.3 yards per rush – and, after finishing first in rushing last season, my metrics have their rushing offense ranked 28th in 2017. I don’t see any value with either side here and both teams apply to letdown situations this week.

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns

Lean – CLEVELAND (pick) over New York Jets

The Browns were blown out at home last week and fell to 27th in my team ratings using just this season’s stats. Cleveland has been particularly poor in the passing game ranking 29th on both offense and defense. Despite New York’s bleak preseason expectations and their 0-2 start, the Jets have rallied to win two games in a row to get back to .500. New York had to wait until the last minute of overtime to beat Jacksonville, but the game shouldn’t have been that close. The Jets outgained the Jaguars by 2.7 yards per play and would’ve won in regulation had it not been for a New York 4th quarter fumble in the Redzone that Jacksonville returned for a touchdown. This makes two straight weeks the Jets have looked great at home and they’ve been surprisingly good throwing the ball – ranking above the league average at 6.7 yppp.

New York has been better than Cleveland so far this season but these teams are due for a reversal of fortunes and the line has already gone from Cleveland -2 down to pick. New York applies to a 19-52-2 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off consecutive upset wins and Cleveland qualifies in one of my favorite contrary situations. The Browns are 0-4 straight-up, just 1-3 ATS and are coming off a humiliating 7-31 home loss. Backing a team like that doesn’t sound like a good idea. However, it actually is. Since 1980 (as far back as my database goes), teams with a losing spread record that are on a losing streak and lost last week by 20 points or more are 200-117-4 ATS against a non-division opponent (a divisional opponent would be more likely to get fired up for a struggling rival). That’s an incredible situation for so few parameters and it speaks to the concept that the team in the NFL that is hardest to bet is usually the team that you should be betting on. Nobody wants to bet on Cleveland, which is why there is line value.

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts

Lean – San Francisco (+1½) over INDIANAPOLIS

After last week’s second-half debacle in Seattle, the Colts defense now ranks 31st in my metrics, and Indianapolis and New Orleans are the only two teams to surrender more than 6 yppl to opponents the last two seasons. In other words, the Colts’ defense still sucks. It doesn’t get much better on the other side of the ball for the Colts as they’ve only managed to score 17.8 points per game this season and there’s reason to believe they’ll regress – Indianapolis has been lucky to score touchdowns on 7 of their 10 Redzone opportunities, the second highest rate in the league. I certainly don’t expect an offense of the Colts’ quality to convert at that level in the Redzone moving forward.

San Francisco’s offense has also been poor this season, ranking 31st according to my numbers, but the 49ers defense ranks 13th overall and they’ve been particularly good stopping the run, holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per rush.

Using this year’s games only I get Indy by just ½ a point but while they say there are no moral victories in the NFL, the Niners’ overtime loss to the Cardinals is a good indicator of improvement for this 0-4 team. In fact, winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 37-14-1 ATS in road games after a pointspread win as long as their opponent is not coming off a bye. I’ll lean with San Francisco.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions

Lean – Carolina (+2½) over DETROIT

Detroit exceeded their expected point differential for the 4th straight week on Sunday, as they continue to be the NFL’s luckiest team. The Lions were outplayed by the Vikings, as they were outgained 3.7 yppl to 5.3 yppl, but managed to win that game 14-7 due to some good fortune. Detroit scored 11 of their 14 points with short fields resulting from two Vikings’ fumbles and the Vikings lost another fumble on their final drive sealing the game for the Lions. Short fields aren’t new to Detroit’s offense as their defense leads the league in takeaways. Despite being top 10 in scoring, the Lions offense ranks last in drives of more than 50 yards – my numbers have Detroit’s offense ranked 28th overall and it won’t be easy this week against a top-5 Carolina defense.

Cam Newton came alive last week with 9.8 yppp, albeit against what has been a miserable Patriots defense, logging the second best offensive performance of the week according to my metrics. With hardly any offseason changes the Lions pass defense has gone from 29th in 2016 to 11th this season – I don’t expect the Lions secondary to continue playing at this level as the season progresses and Newton should have another good outing.

The Panthers offense played better in week 4, but, as I mentioned earlier, Carolina has been getting it done with defense this season. The Panthers have only surrendered 17.5 points per game and have actually been unfortunate to allow opponent touchdowns on 5 of 8 Redzone opportunities, including 3 of 4 by the Patriots last week – I don’t expect a defense of Carolina’s quality to allow touchdowns on 63% of opponent Redzone trips as the season progresses.

The summer line for this game was DET -2 and since then both teams have started 3-1, but the Lions have been the luckiest team in the league. This season, Detroit ranks worse than Carolina in both offensive yppl (4.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl) and defensive yppl (5.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl), yet the current line is a bit higher than the summer line and suggests that these teams are about the same. My model sees value with Carolina but the magic +3 didn’t last long. I’ll still lean with the Panthers and I’d consider Carolina a Strong Opinion if that line went back up to +3.

Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders

Lean – Baltimore (+2½) over OAKLAND

My quarterback projection model expects EJ Manuel to be about 4 points worse than Derek Carr. This may force the Raiders to rely on a rushing attack that hasn’t been very effective this season. Oakland’s rushing offense ranks 25th in my numbers, but they do get a 26th ranked Baltimore rush defense in this one. I expect Manuel to look for scrambling opportunities, which he’s had success with in his career – my metrics have him ranked as the 16th best running quarterback since 2000 (min 75 rushes), between Tim Tebow and Robert Griffin.

In another matchup of weakness vs. weakness, the Ravens’ 30th ranked passing offense will go against an Oakland pass defense ranked 28th, according to my metrics. I expect Joe Flacco to have a bounce-back game after gaining less than 4 yppp each of the last two weeks while his team scored just 7 points and 9 points. In fact, teams that have been that bad offensively in consecutive games tend to be good value bets, as teams that scored fewer than 10 points in each of the last two weeks, and are coming off a loss, are 141-100-5 ATS (58.5%) since 1980 and an even better 30-6-1 ATS since 2009. Our model says the fair line here is Oakland by 2 ½ points with Manuel at quarterback for the Raiders and I’ll lean with Baltimore based on the bounce-back situation.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

Lean – DALLAS (-2½) over Green Bay

Turnovers were the story for both of these teams in week 4, benefitting the Packers and hurting the Cowboys. After the opening drive, Green Bay scored their next 28 points off of Chicago turnovers and missed field goals and won the game by 21 points despite barely outgaining the Bears 4.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl. Dallas probably would’ve beaten the Rams if it weren’t for their two turnovers, including a muffed punt setting Los Angeles up in the Redzone, as the Cowboys outgained the Rams 6.8 yppl to 6.1 yppl.

The matchup to watch in this game will be the Dallas rushing attack against Green Bay’s banged up defensive front-7. The Cowboys rank 3rd on the ground in my numbers and the Packer’s Mike Daniels (DT), Blake Martinez (LB), and Joe Thomas (LB) are all listed as questionable this week. The line on this game is fair but Green Bay applies to a negative 67-115-4 ATS road letdown situation and I’ll lean with Dallas based on that trend.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

Lean – HOUSTON (+1) vs Kansas City

The Texans managed to score 57 points last week on just 5.7 yppl, as they were helped by 5 Titans turnovers setting them up with short fields, which led to a whopping 9 Rezone opportunities. DeShaun Watson, now 3-0 ATS as a starter, was impressive again and for the second straight week he’s averaged more than 7.5 yppp.

Kansas City’s offense remains at the top in my ratings after beating Washington on Monday night. The Chiefs ended up winning by 9 on a last second ‘not-so-meaningless’ touchdown, but the game was pretty much a stalemate in my metrics. Both Washington touchdowns came against Chiefs top cornerback, Marcus Peters, and he’ll have a tough matchup this week against DeAndre Hopkins. The Kansas City running game continued its dominance rushing for 5.4 yards per carry against a Redskins run defense that came into the week rated 5th in my metrics. The Chiefs will be challenged by another good defensive front in this game, as the Texans rank 9th in rush defense. The line on this game is about right, as our model thinks it should be a pick’em game, but I’ll lean with Houston on the basis of a negative 127-212-11 ATS scheduling situation that applies to Kansas City.

Wunderdog

Seahawks at Rams
Pick: Under 46.5

The Seattle Seahawks are going to be up for this game as they have opened the season at 2-2. A loss here would put this team in trouble as the Rams would take control of the division at 4-1. The question is are we looking at The Greatest Show on Turf Part ll, or have the Rams just played over their head? On offense the Rams enter averaging 35.5 points per game. I think the offense has improved for sure as Jared Goff has a 112.1 passer rating, but this improvement is astonishing and likely not sustainable. This team has gone from worst to first in one key stat: passing yards per attempt. In 2016 the Rams were worst in the league, averaging 5.5. This season they are first in the league at 9.2. To put that into perspective, Matt Ryan and the Falcons last season averaged less than that per attempt. Is Goff really that good? No. These numbers will come back down to earth and vs. the Seahawks defense, that decline will likely start this week. Seattle thrives on defense, and will take this challenge personally as they try to shut down the Rams high-octane offense. This total is high for a Seattle game, as the Seahawks are 25-12 to the UNDER in their last 37 games with a total of 46.5 or more.

Spartan

Arizona at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -6.5

I am fading the Cardinals once again this week and playing the Eagles, again. I have been on the Eagles in three games this season including the triple in Washington and last week in Los Angeles against the Chargers where they came though for me. We did not prevail when I was on them at Arrowhead against the Chiefs. They did everything but cover. I suppose I am a little higher on this Philadelphia team than the average Joe and on the flip side not so much with the Cardinals. Yes, the Cardinals are indeed 2-2 but wins over the Colts minus Mr Luck under center and at home in a real struggle against the 49ers does not blow me away. The Eagles come into this thing 3-1 and could oh so easily be undefeated. They have not exactly walked through the valley of death with their schedule either but the eye test tells me the Eagles are the stronger club. I look for the Eagles to be able to run the ball in this game and control the time of possession. One thing that rarely gets mentioned but so often plays into who cashes on who doesn't is the place kicker. I think you would get many in the Tampa area that would concur with that notion today. I am very impressed with the Eagles kicker Jake Elliot. He is consistent and has a cannon down there for a leg having already brought one home from 61 yards. I do think also for what it is worth the Eagles have an edge here with Elliot over Dawson for the Cardinals. Stubborn fact is the Cardinals have yet to cash a ticket for backers this season and I expect that string to continue here in Philly. I say take the Eagles and lay the 6.5. Eagles are better than most realize, take advantage while you can.

Larry Wallace

Bills vs. Bengals
Play:Bengals -3

Going with the Bengals in this match-up against the Bills. The Bengals are looking like that they are coming together now. The Bengals defense has been solid this year by ranking 3rd in defense that allows 16.8 points per game. Also, they are ranked 3rd against the pass. The Bills should be ready for a let down after beating the Broncos and Falcons.

Teddy Covers

Chargers vs. Giants
Play: Under 45

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My clients and I cashed a winning bet on the Giants Over the total last week, yet I’m recommending a play on the Under here. What gives? Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up last week:

“Facing Tampa’s banged up defense, Case Keenum looked like a pro bowler: 369 passing yards on 11.1 per attempts, 3 TD’s without an INT and a QB rating of 142.1 for the game. That, folks, is Tampa Bay’s stop unit right now. DT Chris Baker is dealing with a nasty bout of the flu. CB Brent Grimes has a bad shoulder. LB Kwon Alexander is out with a hamstring injury. DT Gerald McCoy has a bum ankle. DE Noah Spence is playing with a dislocated shoulder. LB Lavonte David turned his ankle. DE Jacquies Smith has been out since preseason. Safety TJ Ward is dealing with an injured hip. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith: “Unfortunately, we’ve got some guys that are down, but nobody is going to feel sorry for us -- that’s for sure.”

“Meanwhile The Giants defense was completely gassed by the fourth quarter at Philly last week; only the field for nearly 80 snaps in the heat. This stop unit is not fresh – the G-Men have been losing the time of possession battle on a weekly basis – and they’ll be tested by the explosive Bucs offense in the heat and humidity of late afternoon in Tampa Bay.”

So what happened? Despite red zone failures and missed field goals for both teams, the game still went Over the total. And now, the betting markets have done what they do – react to last week’s games. Lo and behold, this week’s Giants total is even higher than last week’s total. Yet the conditions here are very different. The Chargers defense is NOT banged up like Tampa’s D was. And the Giants defense won’t be gassed the same way this week; only the field for only 62 snaps last Sunday, without Florida heat and humidity that wears defenses down as the game progresses.

LA has all the makings of an Under team right now, despite their playmaking weapons on the outside. The Chargers pass rush, led by last year’s #1, Joey Bosa, has been strong; bad news for Eli Manning playing behind a very weak offensive line. I’m not expecting the G-men to control the line of scrimmage here, bad news for their ‘hit or miss’ offense.

Meanwhile, the Chargers offense has looked flat out broken for first month of the season. Like that of the Giants, LA’s offensive line play has been bottom tier, unable to generate any holes for their running backs. That’s put all the pressure on Philip Rivers, whose accuracy has really declined over the past two seasons. Rivers is very comfortable just chucking the ball up towards his receivers and expecting them to make a play on the football. That strategy hasn’t worked all year and it’s not likely to work against the Giants rock solid secondary. Expect a field goal fest here!

Buster Sports

Carolina at Detroit
Play: Detroit -2.5

The Lions host Cam Newton and the Panthers in what should be a good football game. Both these clubs come into this game with 3-1 records and we see some nice value with the Lions laying under a FG today. What has really impressed us with the Lions is how they have taken care of the ball this year. Coming into this game, they have only 2 TO’s compared to 11 takeaway’s. Carolina had an offensive explosion last game against one of the worst defences in the league and now they are only a 2 1/2 point underdog to a very impressive Detroit Lions club. We are not buying into this Carolina offense and we see them struggling today in Detroit.Carolina does have a top defense but we have seen NO put up 34 and NE 30 in their last two games, so they can be scored on. Backing our selection is the fact that the Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf and the fact that the Lions are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the clubs.

Tony Finn

Buffalo at Cincinnati
Play: Buffalo +3

Expectations were low for the AFC East this season, save the New England Patriots. The Bills traded down in the first round of this year's draft with a deal that sent wide out Sammy Watkins and defensive back Ronald Darby packing for 2018 draft picks. The new Buffalo coaching staff motivated starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor during the preseason by talking about starting rookie fifth-rounder Nathan Peterman in his place. Consequently most of the local and national media looked at this year's Buffalo campaign as a rebuild.

After four games the Rex Ryan defensive leftovers have allowed a league-low 13.5 points per game through four weeks. And while pundits called the team's early season schedule soft with wins over the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons the last two weeks have quieted the critics.

The Bills have allowed just 52 points - the least in the NFL - and the vanilla offense has gone a franchise-record 15 quarters without a turnover.

Bills' QB Taylor, who was 12 of 20 for 182 yards, in the win over the Falcons has been mistake free this year. The Buffalo signal caller has not forced throws and for the most part is playing without a game breaker on the outside after the trade of Watkins this past August.

Running back LeSean McCoy has a quiet 379 yards rushing after four game but without a touchdown. But he leads the team in receptions with 21 for 163 yards and a near eight-yard per catch average.

The Bengals won their first game of the season against the win-less Cleveland Browns this past Sunday. Cleveland is 0-4 this year and 1-22 since the 13th game of 2015. Cincinnati has beaten them six straight times - four straight times in Cleveland - so the win isn't anything to get overly excited about.

Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton continues to regress. The veteran field general came into the Cleveland contest with two touchdown passes against four interceptions. Dalton and company face off against a defense on Sunday that is similar to the first three they faced in September. And it was three games they lost.

Dalton's quarterback rating was 28.4 in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week #1. He registered a 76.4 in the defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans the following week. And in Week #3 at Lambeau Field the Bengals quarterback threw for 212 passing yards with two touchdowns. However, in critical possessions Dalton and the offense was three-and-out more often than not.

The Bengals got a career day from backup tight end Tyler Kroft last week against the Browns. Kroft started in place of injured Tyler Eifert (back) and caught six passes for 68 yards with two touchdowns. Dalton can’t overcome the oppositions double teams to his most talented offensive threat, A.J. Green. If coach Marvin Lewis and the Bengals staff depend on their backup tight end to carry them to victory this Sunday against the Bills defense the game plan is flawed

The Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams.
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Cincinnati.
The Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four overall games
Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 playing on fieldturf.

The Bills are surging with confidence and will continue to be the defensive monster they have been through four games this year. Hence registering a win against the declining Dalton and the Bengals.

Scott Spreitzer

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Play: Jacksonville +8

Give the Jags credit, not many expected a 2-2 SU record at this point of the season and they're an OT loss from 3-1. Teams haven't thrown for big yardage against Jacksonville, they're giving teams the run, while attempting to take away big gains through the air. In fact, Jax ranks #1 in the NFL in yards passing allowed per game. Pittsburgh has averaged just 95 yards rushing per game. They'll likely be able to run against Jacksonville, but that speeds up the contest. The Jags have churned out a solid ground game themselves, averaging 148.8 yards per game, the second best rushing mark in the league. Teams are running the ball well against the Steelers, averaging 113 yards per contest and we expect success from the Jaguars ground attack, keeping this one close. Pittsburgh is averaging less than 23 ppg and they're off three road games in four weeks, including last week's rivalry affair in Baltimore with a game against Kansas City up next. The Jags have covered four of their last five on the road and five of their last seven games, overall.