DAVE COKIN
PACKERS AT COWBOYS
PLAY: OVER 53
The oddsmakers never make it easy, and they’ve done their job to at least create some hesitation in playing today’s Green Bay-Dallas game Over. The 53 that’s hung on this game right now is by far the highest number on today’s NFL board.
But big number or not, this sure looks like a shootout to me. The Dallas defense has been butter all season, and I have to think an elite QB like Aaron Rodgers will exploit that vulnerability.
The Green Bay defense has its own issues. One might make a case that this unit has only gotten scorched once in four games. But I’m more of the opinion that the only good offense they faced was the one that ripped them to shreds. I can see the same happening here as the Cowboys attack can be very prolific and the Dallas attack is starting to get it together.
I can see this being a light up the scoreboard classic that’s thoroughly entertaining from start to finish. Even with O/U as high as it is, I like the Packers and Cowboys to get close to 60 here and I prefer the Over.
Vegas Butcher
ARZ @ PHI -6.5
This one was -2 PHI in the offseason, so this tells you how far the Cards have fallen. Arizona’s O-line is a big issues, as they rank 25th in pass-protection and 24th in the run-game. Of course Philly is still without Cox, and their D-line hasn’t lived up to their name yet (only 20th in ASR%). Plus their secondary is still reeling with injuries to Darby and Graham. One note is that Smallwood is out, leaving Blount as the main RB this week. Blount is a plodder and going up against the 5th ranked Arizona run-D will be a challenge. With Peterson neutralizing Jeffery on one side and Blount failing to move the chains, this could be a tough game for the Philly offense. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS on the season, but this game feels like they’re a bit under-valued. Philly just played 3 of their first 4 games on the road, and had a long cross-country flight to LA and back last week. I see them potentially struggling a bit in this one. (Arizona played 2 in a row at home so haven’t experienced as much travel in the last 3+ weeks). Lean: ARZ +6.5
CAR @ DET -2.5
At first glance the line tells us that the bookmakers are stating that Carolina is a slightly better team in this matchup. I’m not so sure that’s the case. Sure the Panthers are coming off a big win @ NE, but they were facing the worst defense in the league, and more importantly, this is a let-down spot for them. Lions rank 5th defensively. Don’t expect Newton to have as much success here, and I would project him to perform closer to how he did in the first 3 weeks of the season. On the season he ranks 23rd in DVOA (efficiency) and 25th in QBR. In addition, Detroit ranks #1 defensively against RB’s in the pass-game. This is critical as the Panthers are transitioning to an offense that utilizes McCaffrey out of the backfield with two big WR’s on the outside. This is not the offense that has a lot of vertical speed, which plays into Detroit’s advantage. Finally, let’s remember that Newton became a distraction this week when he made an inexplicable comment to a female reporter. I know the Panthers will say it has no effect on them, but this is a major distraction that could hurt their preparation and focus. Regardless, Lions are a better team here, and with the line below a FG, there strong value on them in this one. Lean: DET -2.5
SF @ IND -1.5
West Coast team traveling to the Eastern Time Zone and playing in the 1 PM game. That’s a big factor to consider. Another one is the fact that Hoyer is one of the worst QB’s in the league. That’s actually a surprise to me since Hoyer was very efficient last season, but he’s been pretty slow to pick up Shannahan’s offense so far this year. He ranks 30th in DVOA and 31st in QBR, while averaging a pathetic 4.7 PY/A, which is 33rd in the league. San Francisco has been a better team so far this year as the Colts are the worst team in the league, but backing them on the road with a number that doesn’t really provide much leeway (at +3, they’d be an automatic bet) isn’t the best long-term winning strategy. Colts have already beaten a bottom-feeder at home (CLE in week 3) and they could very well do it again this week. Lean: IND -1.5
JAX @ PIT -7.5
The Jaguars are in a tough spot from the ‘travel’ standpoint. This is their 3rd straight ‘road’ game and 4th in the last 5 weeks. They opened the season @ HOU, then hosted TEN, then proceeded to fly to London to take on the Ravens, and then went on the road to face the Jets, a game that actually went to OT. Now they’re back on the road once again. From the physical aspect, this is a tough spot. Taking on what looks like a top-3 team isn’t making things easier. Facing a Steelers team that ranks 10th in run-efficiency is going to be very difficult. If you take out that fluky 75-yard run by Powell last week, Jags still gave up 181 rushing yards and 5.8 YPC (with that run it was 256 and 8.0 YPC). This is a defense that ranks dead-last in the league in defending the run. And with rain expected in the forecast all day in Pittsburgh, running the ball will take on a much more significant importance. Oh, by the way, the Steelers rank 4th in defending the run while Jags are only 22nd in run-efficiency on offense. Something tells me we could be seeing a blowout in this matchup. Lean: PIT -7.5
BUF @ CIN -3.5
This one opened at -3 and now swung to -3.5 at Pinny. That’s a very significant move, as it came off the key number of ‘3’. My model has this one at 19-19. Hmmmm. Is there a ton of value on the Bills, or something else is happening that we’re not aware of? The number was -3.5 CIN in the offseason but the Bills have been a significantly better team so far this year. I know Jordan Matthews is out, but the Bills are getting their LT back and their top CB, EJ Gaines, looks to be ok to play. The total is super low, there’s rain in the forecast, and a better team is catching over a FG. Lots of value in this one, but the move off the FG is a bit strange. Lean: BUF +3.5
NYJ @ CLE PK
Last week I backed the Jags on the road as I couldn’t see a bad team like the Jets win two in a row. The question now is, can they win 3 in 3 consecutive weeks? We all know that the Browns have a rookie QB and terrible wide-receivers. What they are good at offensively is running the ball. Crowell, Duke Johnson, and Kizer can all make plays via the run. The Browns rank 13th in running efficiency, while the Jets are 27th at defending the run. In the one game where the Browns have had success running the ball so far, they had 111 yards on 21 carries against the Colts, 23rd against the run. They struggled against their other opponents – BAL, PIT, CIN – all top-10 defensive teams. Well, I expect this team to have a lot of success running the ball against the Jets. On the other side, we have a Browns defense that is ranked 6th in defending the run-game. This defense is also getting Danny Shelton back, who is absolutely critical player on their D-line. In addition, Myles Garrett will finally make his debut. Playing their 2nd straight at home, I think the Browns are in line for a solid showing in this one. Lean: CLE PK
TEN @ MIA +2.5
The current line indicates that Mariota is going to suit up for this one, but I’m not so sure he will. He was highly limited in practice and was only making stationary throws all week. I doubt he suits up, but even if he does, he should be very limited. In any case, this is a game where this Dolphins offense has the best chance of actually showing some life. I know last week was supposed to be that, but playing in London is not easy, and the Saints D isn’t as bad as everyone initially thought. Well, this Titans D is truly that bad. They rank 28th against the pass and 29th against the run. Expect Miami to finally show some life offensively. On the other side, if Mariota is as limited (or sits) as I expect him to be, Titans will be forced to rely heavily on their run-game. Well, so far this season one thing that Miami has done exceptionally well is defend the run where they rank 2nd overall in efficiency measures. If you’re going to back the home team, I’d do it sooner rather than later, because if Mariota sits, the line will move. If he plays, it’ll stay at +2.5. You can’t lose if you book it early if you decide to back the Dolphins. Lean: MIA +2.5
LAC @ NYG -3
West Coast team traveling to the Eastern Time Zone and playing a 1 PM game. I think I’ve heard this one before, somewhere up above 😉 We have two 0-4 teams here so someone is finally getting a win, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see our first tie of the season as well. Giants are dealing with some serious injuries to their D-line. Vernon is out and JPP seems to be very doubtful. Even if he suits up, a pass-rush that ranks 23rd is going to be virtually non-existent. That bodes really well for a Chargers O-line tha ranks 7th in pass-protection and the Chargers pass-O that ranks 6th overall. Expect San Diego to move the ball offensively in this one. On the other side, Giants’ best O-lineman, their center Weston Richburg is out with a concussion. That makes an already bad O-line even worse. Chargers have played three straight at home, though those games pretty much felt like being on the road, as clearly LA is not looking to embrace two teams anytime soon. Maybe going on the road and playing in the early game on the East Coast won’t be as big of a factor since the Chargers are used to playing in the hostile environment. Lean: LAC +3
BAL @ OAK -3
Carr is out (I know he practiced a bit this week but I doubt he suits up) which is a huge factor in this one. EJ Manuel has already shown us all that he’s not a starting caliber QB in this league. Ravens are off two straight embarrassing loses, but they’re getting EJ Manuel now, and this 2nd ranked defense should have a lot more success than last week. The concern isn’t the D, it’s the O of course. The Ravens have faced off against 3 top-10 defenses already – CIN/JAX/PIT – and have averaged 12 PPG in those contests. Well, they’ll be going up against the 27th ranked Oakland D. As bad as Flacco is, even he should have success against the Raiders. Lean: BAL +3
SEA @ LAR -1.5
Holy cow, the Rams are favorites against the Seahawks?!? That hasn’t happened in a long while. In the offseason this line was +6 LAR. Now it’s 7.5 points different. Of course it’s important to note that the Rams are playing really well overall, but here are the defenses they’ve faced so far – IND 26th, WAS 6th, SF 23rd, and DAL 24th. They’ve won their 3 games against each of the defenses ranked 23rd or worse, but lost against Washington, which ranks 6th defensively. Seattle hasn’t been as stout as expected, but they’re 14th overall. More importantly they’re 10th against the pass. I understand why the Rams are favorites, and I do believe they should be in this matchup. They’ve simply been the better team so far this season. But things can change quickly in the NFL, and I believe this is a week when the Rams come back down to Earth a bit. Lean: SEA +1.5
GB @ DAL -3
So far we’ve seen that Dallas simply isn’t as good of a team as they were last year. They’re poor defensively (24th overall) but that was to be expected. The fact that they’re only 15th on the offensive end is the real story here. Prescott has predictably regressed, and though he’s still very good, he’s not playing at the elite level he was last year. Dallas is also dealing with a number of key injuries – Lee is out at LB and Tyron Smith has missed practice all week though he said he’ll play. His effectiveness might be questionable. Packers on the other hand will have Mike Daniels back, who is an absolute stud at DT. That should help Green Bay in slowing down this Dallas run-game. Packers are also getting Adams back, Bakhiari, and Bulaga, though Montgomery is out. I think Green Bay is a ‘better’ team in this one and there’s value on them at this number. Lean: GB +3
KC @ HOU PK
The Chiefs are the best team in the league but they’re going on the road here after playing a close game on Monday Night. They’ll also be without their RG Duvernay-Tardif, who is one of their best O-lineman this year. Against this Houston D-line, that’s a major concern. Chiefs rank 32nd in pass-protection, with an ASR% of 12%, the worst in the league. It’s not hard to see how the Texans can win this game. In addition, the run-game with Miller, Foreman, and Watson should have a lot of success, going up against a Chiefs run-D that ranks only 25th in the league. Washington did an excellent job limiting this KC offense last week in the first 3 quarters, but fell apart late as a bunch of their key defenders exited the game with injuries. This Chiefs team is beatable, and I think Houston is built in a way that can take advantage of KC’s weaknesses. Lean: HOU PK
Tommy Brunson
0-4 Bolts versus the 0-4 G-Men. Someone is going to break their maiden here in 2017, unless of course they end in a tie.
Anyway, have to give Los Angeles the play plus the points in this one, as they do bring in a respectable 23-11-1 road spread mark dating back to 2012 into this one.
Not sure I trust what is going on with the Giants under Coach McAdoo, as the home crowd is just waiting for something to go awry so they can let the boos get some volume. Keep in mind that New York is only 5-7 against the spread their last 12 when listed as the favorite.
This game has all the makings of a close one right to the bitter end, as both are desperate for the "W". That being the case, prefer the competitive fire that resides in Philip Rivers' belly over the fire in Eli's belly.
Chargers plus the points your Sunday comp play.
2* L.A. CHARGERS
Joey Juice
The Buffalo Bills are for real and the Cincinnati Bengals are about to find that out.
I don't know about you, but I have had about enough of the Andy Dalton experiment..it's a failure. Yeah, he looks great against the Browns, but so would I. How will Andy look against the Bills and the # 1 defense in the NFL? Not so dandy.
When we look inside the numbers we see that the Buffalo Bills play great in Cincy, they are 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Cincinnati. In fact Buffalo is hot vs the Vegas spread, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Don't be scared to bet the dog in this one, the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 between these 2.
As for the Cincinnati Bengals, they just can't cover vs the Bills, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs Bills. The Bengals only play well against bad teams like the Browns, they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
This one is all Bills plus the points.
4* BUFFALO
Jeff Benton
Sunday comp play release is the Over in the Packers-Cowboys contest.
Remember last season when these teams played in Arlington? Final score, Green Bay 34-31 over Dallas in a game that sailed Over the posted price.
That Over is part of an 8-1 Over run that the Packers happen to be on over their last 9 games away from Lambeau Field.
Overall this season, Green Bay has played 3 straight in the Over column, while host Dallas has played Overs in 2 of their last 3 games. That includes a shootout just last Sunday at home when the Cowboys combined with the L.A. Rams for a whopping 65 points.
If a couple of young QB's like Trevor Siemian of Denver, and Jared Goff of Los Angeles can shred the young Dallas secondary, imagine what a seasoned veteran like Aaron Rodgers will be able to do!
Packers-Cowboys Over the total.
5* GREEN BAY-DALLAS OVER
Mike Lundin
Panthers vs. Lions
Play: Lions -133
This is a huge letdown spot for the Carolina Panthers after last week's 33-30 upset victory as a 9-point dog at New England. Note that the Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
The Detroit Lions are coming off an upset win as well as they defeated the Vikings 14-7 at Minnesota last week. They forced three turnovers in that game, have forced an NFL-best 11 throughout the season and lead the league with a plus-9 in that category.
Carolina QB Cam Newton threw for three touchdown passes (and added a score on the ground) against the Pats, but he has a 5/5 TD/INT ratio on the season. I wouldn't be confident to say he's back to prime form after just one good performance.
The Lions veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford has been solid all season, throwing seven touchdown passes with only one interception. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and this looks like a good spot to back Detroit.
Brad Diamond
Chargers vs. Giants
Play: Under 45½
Neither unit can run the football, both 0-4 SU on the season. The Chargers are suffering much with a new staff in 2017. They are averaging 18 points a game, NYG comes showing 15 points per outing. Further, the struggling Giants show 5-0 UNDER at home, while the Chargers travel east 5-1-1 UNDER after rushing for less than 90 yards in their previous outing.
Ray Monohan
Panthers vs. Lions
Play: Panthers +3
The Panthers grab points against the Lions and this is a nice move here on Sunday.
Carolina comes in off a huge road win over the Patriots, as we saw Cam Newton really light things up. That is the Newton this Panthers fan base has been waiting to see. Newton dominated with his feet and arm, as he found his dual threat abilities that had been missing.
On top of that, their defense has been top notch. Carolina ranks fourth in total defense and scoring defense and that comes after playing a tough schedule to start the season.
Some trends to note. Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Carolina has been a solid road team thus far and dating back to last season even. Grabbing points with the better side is the way to go here.
Cappers Club
Chiefs vs. Texans
Play: Over 45
The Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs face off on Sunday and with the total at 45 the over has the value.
Since making a change at quarterback bringing in Deshaun Watson the Texans have been putting up all kinds of points.
In their last game against the Titans they put up 57 points. Now the Chiefs have a little better defense then the Titans, but they have showed the aren't as good as years past, and I think the Texans will be able to score again in this one.
The Chiefs have Kareem Hunt and I think he will have another big game in this one and help the Chiefs hold up their end of the bargain to cover the over.
Some trends to note. Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last five games.
Jack Jones
Ravens vs. Raiders
Play: Raiders -2½
The Oakland Raiders have played a tough schedule in the early going with three of their first four games on the road. They have gotten through it at 2-2, and I think they are undervalued now after two consecutive losses. They beat the Jets 45-20 in their lone home game, and now they are laying just 2.5 points at home against a dismal Ravens squad.
I think the Raiders are not only undervalued because of those back-to-back losses, but also because of the Derek Carr injury. Fortunately for them, they have a veteran backup in EJ Manuel who didn't look overwhelmed at all against Denver's top-notch pass defense last week. In fact, if not for drops by his receivers, the Raiders would have won that game.
Manuel finished 11-of-17 passing for 106 yards with an interception on the final play in desperation mode against the Broncos. But his receiver dropped a would-be game-winning touchdown just a few plays before. And Michael Crabtree may return from a one-game absence due to injury, which would give Manuel his full compliment of weapons.
There's just nothing to like about the Ravens right now. Joe Flacco has been awful in back-to-back losses to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh by a combined 70-16 score. The Ravens are averaging just 15 points, 270 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season. They lost their leader along the offensive line in Marshal Yanda in Week 2, and they've been completely broken since. The Raiders have the better offense even with Manuel, and it's not really even close.
Look for Marshawn Lynch to get going against the Ravens. Baltimore allowed 166 rushing yards to the Jaguars and 173 more to the Steelers in its past two games. And the Ravens have a banged-up secondary with CB's Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb and Jaylen Hill all questionable to play this week.
Jack Del Rio is 10-2 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached. Oakland is 10-2 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Baltimore is 0-6 ATS versus teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Eagles
Play: Cardinals +6½
Edges - Cardinals: head coach Bruce Arians 19-6 SUATS against foes off a SUATS win… Eagles: 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS last eleven games against NFC West opponents; and head coach Doug Pedersen 0-3 ATS home versus foes off an ATS loss. With that we recommend a 1* play join Arizona.
Jimmy Boyd
Panthers vs. Lions
Play: Under 43
I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Sunday's NFC matchup between the Panthers and Lions. A lot of people think of the Lions as a high-powered offense, but through 4 games Detroit ranks 24th in total offense and are 15th in total defense.
Carolina got their offense going last week against the Patriots and that should help them going forward, but at the same time, it was against a bad New England defense. Prior to that game they had score 23 against the 49ers, 9 against the Bills and just 13 vs the Saints. I think Detroit can at least slow them down here to keep this well below the mark.
As for the Panthers offense, this is one of the better units they have had. They come into this one ranks 4th overall in total defense and rank inside the Top 10 in both stopping the run and the pass. They should be able to take away Detroit's lackluster run game and turn them into a one dimensional offensive. That will have Stafford and the offense behind the chains and make it tough for them to sustain enough drives to turn this into a shootout.
UNDER is 18-3 in the Panthers last 21 games off a road win by 3 points or less. It's also 8-1 in the Lions last 9 after a win and 11-4 in their last 15 overall.
Chase Diamond
Packers vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -1½
This game features the 3-1 Packers and the 2-2 Dallas. Major revenge factor here as the Packers knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs last season plus you add in that at 2-2 they really need to win to keep pace in the NFC East which has the Eagles already up 1 game maybe 2 by the time this kicks off. Packers are hurting at running back and I think the Cowboys will look to take away the pass and let them try to win the game running. Cowboys are a perfect money making 4-0 ATS in their last 4 October games.
Dave Price
Seahawks vs. Rams
Play: Under 47½
The Rams are coming off a 35-30 shootout win over the Cowboys, while the Seahawks are coming off a 46-18 shootout win over the Colts. I think last week's results have inflated this total as these two teams meet this week. But this is a division rivalry, and division games are always played closer to the vest, especially in this particular series. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings, and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. The last 3 meetings have seen 27, 12 and 40 combined points. There hasn't been a total as high as 47.5 in any meeting between the Rams and Seahawks since 2005.
ASA
Chargers vs. Giants
Play: Over 44½
We had the Giants/Bucs OVER the Total last week and we’ll take New York OVER again this week for many of the same reasons. The Giants offense has really started to play well over the last few weeks. After struggling offensively their first 2 games vs Dallas & Detroit the Giants have turned it around the last few weeks putting up 24 vs Philly and 23 vs Tampa (47 points scored over their last 5 quarters). They should have put up more in each game as they had more opportunities. Against the Eagles they were stopped on downs at the Philly 1-yard line and at 13 yard line. Last week the Giants and Bucs missed 3 field goals, failed on two 2-point conversions and were held to a FG on a first and goal from the 1-yard line and still put up 48 points! Defensively, the Giants look to be a stop down from last year’s unit as they’ve already allowed 24 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Chargers are a top 10 YPP offense averaging 5.8 YPP. They put up 21 points on Denver and 24 on Philly, two of the top defenses in the NFL. In their two lower offensive outputs they put up 10 points on KC but had 330 total yards and vs Miami they tallied 17 points but had nearly 400 yards of offense. They had numerous chances to put more points on the board in both of those games. The Chargers are 23rd in scoring yet a top 10 YPP offense as we mentioned above. The scoreboard is underperforming their actual stats which gives us value with the OVER here. Defensively the Bolts have allowed 24 or more points in 3 of their 4 games.