Chris Jordan
My free play is on the total in the Carolina Panthers-Detroit Lions game, as I like it to go Over the posted number. We have a pair of 3-1 teams with both something to prove, and the one thing that will get them close to doing so, is winning this game big.
Two big offensive units take the field here, and I can tell you this might be one of those games you're wondering what the punter came for.
Carolina is in after last week's 33-30 win over the New England Patriots, with Cam Newton going 22-for-29 for 316 yards, three touchdowns and just one TD. He also ran eight times for 44 yards and a score. And after his debacle with a local beat reporter, he'll be looking to get the talk centered around his play, not his mouth.
On the other hand, the Lions' Matthew Stafford would love a contract with Dannon Yogurt, so why not have a big wholesome game at home againt Newton and the Panthers? He just needs protection, and he'll be able to find his targets often during this game.
Play this one high.
1* Panthers-Lions Over
Jack Brayman
My free play for today is the Detroit Lions to take care of the visiting Carolina Panthers.
What has amazed me about the Lions is that quarterback Matthew Stafford has struggled. His game has been off and we've yet to see what he truly does. But he's been efficient. He's yet to throw an interception, and today I think he will have his chances to shine.
The opportunities will come because the Lions defense is outstanding, and will cause problems for Carolina's offense, including Cam Newton. Veteran linebacker Tahir Whitehead has been outstanding, and has been a menace since shifting to the outside.
The run-first mentality of the Panthers is going to be eaten up by this stop unit, as the Lions pull off an amazing win and cling to first place in the NFC North.
4* LIONS
3G-Sports
Carolina vs. Detroit
Play: Detroit -2.5
How the Detroit offense has been, is not outstanding - but it is still tough to handle for any team lining up against them. To be able to move the ball with their WRs at 10.1/play - still keeps their defense fresh which has gotten them a solid 10 sacks. Matthew Stafford can bring this team to another level - and far better than what Carolina can counter with. Their DBs were very solid last week giving up just 197 YDs in the air and were far better than expected as they were on with their defensive game. There is a lot that still needs to happen for Carolina - and I think adding Christian McCaffrey to the roster hasn't quite helped nearly enough as of yet in the running game, as he has only produced 2.9 YPC this season. The Carolina offense has been mediocre at best with just 318 total YPG. This is about as much as Carolina can expect to get unless they get their QB more protection. Newton has been going crazy behind that Oline over the last several weeks - with 12 sacks given up already. Carolina is ready for the big letdown game vs Detroit on the road. Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win and Cam struggles after big wins and the Lions will win the turnover battle here on Sunday and get the win and cover for us.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal -101 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. Both teams come in 0-2 and both played last night. Furthermore, both Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist were yanked in their respective games last night. Montreal went into Washington and Price allowed four goals in the first period on 14 shots and did not return. Lundqvist started in Toronto and allowed five goals on 17 shots and also did not return. We can almost guarantee that Price will get the start tonight in New York but we can’t say the same thing about Lundqvist. We hope Lundqvist starts but it really doesn’t matter, as career stiff Ondrej Pavelec is his backup.
Montreal has lost to Buffalo and to Washington but it ran into a super-hot Robin Lehner in its opener and Carey Price had a really bad performance last night but we don’t make bets based on results like the rest of the market. Montreal has been very good in both of its games. The Habs are creating a massive amount of high scoring chances and dominated play the entire game last night in Washington. Montreal outshot the Caps, 43-25 and out-chanced them by a wide margin too. The Canadiens have recorded 40 shots or more in both of their games. We’ll also trust Carey Price to rebound while we targeted Lundqvist last year, citing him as a garbage goaltender now with too many miles on his body. We’re not going to stop now attacking Lundqvist now.
The Rangers lost to Colorado in their season opener at Madison Square. Losing at home to Colorado is not easy to do. The Rags lost 8-5 to the Maple Leafs last night but that game was tied 5-5 going to the third. However, Toronto had a 5-1 lead after one period and took their foot of the gas, figuring it was going to be a cakewalk. When the Rangers tied it after two, Toronto woke up and buried them in the third. The New York Rangers will continue to lose at a high clip because its defense is so ordinary and its goaltending is weak. Montreal has looked very dangerous in its first two games while the Rags look and are very beatable. We'll play it accordingly.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +6½ over PHILADELPHIA
The Cardinals struggled with one of the worst teams in football at home last Sunday and needed a touchdown drive in overtime just to beat the 49ers 18-15 to the relief of many Survivor Pool players. The week prior in prime time, the Cards took a 7-0 lead over Dallas but then got outscored 28-10 the rest of the way. The week prior to that, the Cardinals needed OT to beat Indianapolis in a game they trailed throughout. This is a 2-2 Cardinals’ team that should be 0-4 but they are 0-4 against the spread. To show how far Arizona has fallen, they were actually favored at Detroit in Week 1 and were laying a touchdown in Indy in Week 2. Now, Carson Palmer and company are taking back a significant number this week, which is our prompt to move in hard. We’ve been attacking the Cardinals all season and cashing tickets. Now the market is going to jump on the “fade the Cardinals” train but it’s too late. That train has been traveling and paying off for a month. Once again, the market is late to the party and for the first time this year, the Cardinals are being offered up at an inflated price.
Philadelphia is 3-1 with its only loss coming at undefeated Kansas City in a game that was tied late in the fourth quarter. The Eagles have an easy win over Washington, a win over the Giants and a road victory against the Chargers last week. Philadelphia could be 4-0, as they were the better team in Kansas City and the market has not forgotten how impressive they looked. Carson Wentz is a QB that is proving to be trustworthy and that, too, holds a lot of weight in this market. However, this is not the right time to get behind the Eagles. You see, Philly has played four intense games in a row. They barely escaped the Giants (27-24) and the Chargers (26-24), who are a combined 0-8. They have played two divisional games already and they’ll travel to Carolina this upcoming week for a Thursday night game on prime time. This is a dangerous situational spot for the Eagles to get caught napping. There is a right time and wrong time to jump on and off teams. The challenge is to find that perfect spot and move in. Arizona backers have been ripping their tickets up all year and that now helps to set up this perfect spot for the Cardinals to finally look like a team that can compete. Upset possibility.
PITTSBURGH -8 over Jacksonville
This is a tough spot for the Jaguars, as they finish up a three-game road trip that started in London with a stop in New Jersey before heading to Heinz Field to battle the Steelers for this one. The Jags are 2-2 after a pair of dominating wins over the Texans and Ravens but do not forget that their win over Houston came with Tom Savage at quarterback and not Deshaun Watson. Jacksonville crushed the Ravens in London but we are not interested in results from overseas where there are too many variables unaccounted for. Besides that, have you seen the Ravens play lately? They look like 0-16. In Jersey last Sunday, the Jags were able to force overtime with the Jets but Jacksonville owes a big assist to the New York coaches and quarterback Josh McCown for letting them stay in the game. In other words, Blake Bortles and this offense is so bad that the Jets tried to lose but couldn’t. The Jags have now lost seven of their last eight road games but the market has taken notice of their 4-1 record against the spread in their last four road games. The Jags have also played the Steelers tough going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in Pittsburgh, which is a selling point to many in this market but it’s not to us.
As a popular preseason pick to contend for an AFC title, the Steelers have been less than stellar through the first month of the season. They did not cover against a pair of weaker teams in Cleveland and Chicago and actually lost to the Bears. Adding to their negative publicity is the fit that star wideout Antonio Brown threw on the sidelines last week. Brown was taken to task by both his quarterback and head coach this week. In its three wins this season, Pittsburgh narrowly defeated the Browns, they beat up on the Ravens, who were back from the whooping they took in London and they defeated a Vikings team missing their starting quarterback. That’s not exactly a stellar resume to get behind when being asked to lay significant points against an upstart like Jacksonville.
Despite its 3-1 record, Pittsburgh has been taking a lot of heat in the media for its underachieving ways. They have been sloppy and they absolutely look like they could lose to anyone. The Steelers have a rich history of being a model franchise of consistency, blue collar work habits and winning football games but this edition is not like the others. This edition is a bunch of weed-smoking, undisciplined individuals that Ben Rothlisberger is getting tired of. Big Ben has even called out his coach in the media by saying, Nobody is being held accountable" but we all know how the media blows everything out of proportion.
The Steelers are loaded with talent. They’ve won four straight at Heinz Field and their defense has been solid by allowing 14.8 points and 267 yards per game while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is doing what he always does iby completing 62.1% of his passes for six touchdowns and just two interceptions. Against the Vikes, the Steelers were similarly priced and we see a lot of similarities between Minny and J-Ville. Both squads came into the game with less than average starting quarterbacks, hot rookie runners and a strong defense. The Steelers left little to doubt with a 26-9 win over the Vikings and they’re in an even better spot here to put a similar or worse beating on the Jags.
L.A. RAMS -105 over Seattle
The analytics love the Rams and so do we. Earlier this week we posted a futures bet on Los Angeles to win the NFC West and we are not going to back off here. Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams offense was stale and ranked last in the league in offensive DVOA, (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average) at -37.8% which is really bad. The Colts this year for example, are -41% so far this season and they are missing their star quarterback. Fisher refused to play number one pick, Jared Goff until it was too late and the Rams season was over. Goff was on the run for his life and actually finished with a DVOA rating of -74.8% in his seven games played, which Football Outsiders called, "historically bad". Fast forward to this season to new head Sean McVay, who is the youngest NFL head coach in history at just 30 years old and has totally changed the culture of this organization in just one offseason.
On the surface, The Rams offense can no longer be ignored. Through four games Goff and company lead the league in points per game (35.5), are fourth in total passing yards (1081), and fifth in total yards per game (383.3). Running back Todd Gurley has regained his formed and looks revitalized under the new offense. The running game is averaging 133.5 yards per game with Gurley doing the bulk of the work with 362 yards. The Rams have the goods under the hood to back up their impressive offensive improvement. Goff now leads all quarterbacks in passing DVOA after completing 66.7% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt, which is incredible considering where he was in 2016. Remember how we said Goff was on the run last season, well that’s because the Rams were 29th in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate in 2016. After the first month of the 2017 campaign, L.A.’s O-line has improved greatly, ranking fourth this season in both of those categories. Centre John Sullivan has been a big reason for that, as he’s only blown two blocks all season. The Ram’s defense has been no slouch either with 12 sacks, which is good for third in the NFL. That’s bad news for a Seahawks offensive line that might be the worst in the league.
The final score of Seattle’s 46-18 route of Indianapolis might have been the most misleading of Week 4. At halftime, the Seahawks were actually down 15-10. A couple of Colts penalties including a 15-yard unnecessary roughness call helped lead the Seahawks on a touchdown drive to start the 3rd. After a fumble by Colts QB Jacoby Brissett was returned for a TD, the train came off the tracks and Seattle ran up the score. While Russell Wilson finished the day with three touchdowns, he had two interceptions before the floodgates opened. Indy ranks last in just about every relevant offensive metric and their defense is in the bottom third. The Seahawks should have destroyed them but Seattle played poorly enough to keep Indy in the game for far too long. On the season as a whole, the Seahawks are 2-2 but their other win came over the 49ers, who also rank in the bottom third of DVOA in many categories. Seattle defeated San Francisco 12-9 but they needed a fourth-quarter comeback just to win as double-digit home chalk. Which Seahawks team is the real one? The squad that struggled with two of the worst teams in football for six quarters or the one that rolled over the Colts for 30 minutes. We lean hard to the former.
The Seahawks defense still holds a ton of weight in the media and the market but the numbers show that their a middle of the pack unit, ranking 14th in total defensive DVOA just ahead of the Packers and Chargers, two other teams not known for their defense. The Seahawks are a 2-2 team that could easily be 1-3 or even 0-4 had the wheels not come off of the Colts in the second half of Sunday’s game. Even in their darkest days under Fisher, the Rams gave the Seahawks their fair share of troubles, especially at home including last season when they beat Seattle 9-3 as a 5½-point pooch. That was the Rams third straight home win going back to 2014. The Seahawks are winless on the road this season with losses at Green Bay and Tennessee.
Break it down any way you want but we’re calling this the proverbial passing of the torch. The Seahawks have been dominating this division for years and their pedigree still holds a lot of weight while the Rams haven’t convinced anyone of anything. Last year the Rams started 3-1 also but went on to win just one of their final 12 games. The market is not buying that the Rams are different this year but we are. They have a QB, they have playmakers, they have some of the best offensive and defensive players in the game but nobody is buying it because it’s the Rams. Here’s what we wrote earlier this week, “The Rams are coming on big time while the Seahawks have holes in their lineup all over the place. The Rams are a legit threat while the Seahawks are not.” We can’t be any clearer than that so we’ll double down and take the Rams to win in this evenly priced game.
CLEVELAND -103 over N.Y. Jets
So much for the Jets’ commitment to losing, as Gang Green comes into Week 5 on a two-game winning streak. While the wins might be nice for their fans, we’re not going to overreact to wins against the Dolphins, who don’t look too interested in football these days or a jetlagged Jaguars team coming off a trip to London. Inexplicably, the Jets allowed the Jags back in it early in the fourth quarter with some extremely questionable play calling that set up a Jags TD and the tying field goal. Sure the Jets ended up winning in overtime but bonehead play calling from head coach Todd Bowles almost cost his team the game. A win over an up and coming Jags team seems to be holding weight in the market, as it appears the Jets will have it easier this week at Cleveland.
At 0-4 it looks like the same old Browns. Getting crushed at home 31-7 by the Bengals last Sunday did nothing to excite the market about their prospects, but despite the poor start, there have been some bright spots for the Brownies. They competed and covered against the Steelers in Week 1 in losing a close 21-18 decision. In Week 3 after going down 28-14 at halftime on the road in Indy, the Browns rallied and while they lost 31-28, had a couple of bounces gone their way, they could’ve been 2-2 instead of wearing the collar. Over the last two years, the Browns have made no friends in this market with just two covers in their last 11 homes games. Their astock continues to drop but this is teh right time tio step in on them.
These two teams met last October in Cleveland under similar circumstances with the Brownies winless and the Jets having a couple of victories under their belts. Last season Gang Green was a small -2½ point road favorite and needed to overcome a 13-point deficit in the second half to win the game 31-28. This year, with their value plummeting, the Brownies opened as a small favorite at home at First-Energy Stadium and the market pounced quickly moving this game to a pick ‘em. The New York Jets cannot be evenly priced on the road against any team in this league because home field is worth something. The Brownies have the better personnel and let’s not dismiss that the oddsmakers had them favored in Indianapolis two weeks ago and just a three-point dog at home to Cinci last week. This line is therefore based on luck-driven results, which in turn provides us with this outstanding opportunity.
Kansas City -1 over HOUSTON
This is almost a must watch game that is very difficult to call but we’ll give it our best shot. The experts on TV will break down the X’s and O’s for you 100 ways. They’ll compare QB’s to each team’s’ defense and they’ll try to explain to you how the defenses involved will try and stop the offenses. They’ll break down what each QB is going to have to do to move the chains. That’s all very nice but it means jack shit.
The challenge here is not about X’s and O’s, it’s about market perception for a highly anticipated Sunday night game between two intriguing squads. Deshaun Watson has rejuvenated the Texans and in the process, has made them a very high profile team at the moment after their thunderous win over Tennessee last week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, despite being the only undefeated team in the league, scraped and clawed to a difficult win on Monday night in prime time. The Chiefs will also play this one on a shorter week on the road. We’re anticipating money coming in on the Texans here so we are going to wait until after dinner to decide whether to pull the trigger here or not. We’re not suggesting for a second that K.C’s stock is low but we are suggesting that Houston’s stock has jumped higher than any other stock in the NFL over the past two weeks, after the Texans whacked Tennessee last week and dominated New England the week before in a three-point loss. The market watched, as Houston should’ve beaten New ENgland by three TD’s and it actually felt like a win anyway. We’re expecting this market to buy into all the hype that is surrounding the Texans and its franchise QB. You are going to hear all day and night about how Deshaun Watson has changed everything for Houston.
What you won’t hear is how Watson and the Texans couldn’t move five yards against Cincinnati three weeks ago. The media will not mention that even one time. Instead, you’ll hear how Deshaun Watson‘s coming-out party was fun to watch. He finished with 283 passing yards, four TD throws, a pick, one rushing score and 24 more yards on the ground. The media will not put his last two performances into context but we will. The Tennessee Titans were the fourth-easiest matchup to exploit coming into Week 4 while the Patriots were the easiest going into Week 3. Don’t get hung up on the stats like Tony Dungy will. Watson now faces the Chiefs and may throw four picks. He’s still a rookie after all and he’s about to face perhaps the most prepared coaching staff in the entire NFL. Andy Reid might make some bad game management decisions regarding the use of his timeouts but his record as a head coach matches the best of all time. He’ll know exactly how to prepare for this game and force a rookie QB into making some bad decisions.
The media is always foaming at the mouth to make somebody a star overnight and Watson is their next target. Big time stars sell (see Aaron Judge, Jordan Spieth, etc) and since everything is about money, the media will once again be foaming at the mouth to make an NFL QB an overnight sensation. Deshaun Watson might turn out to be really good but let’s not get crazy here. Two games does not make a career and let’s not forget that Tom Savage was the opening day starter for the Texans after training camp and preseason games. Deshaun Watson participated in both. Unless Bill O'Brien is the biggest idiot on the planet, he gave the starting job to Savage before Watson.
Lastly, this market was buying up the Titans in droves last week after they demolished the Seahawks the week before. We were buying up Houston last week in its game against the Titans. We have discussed the zig-zag phenomenon before and this now becomes a classic example of it. When the market jumps on, we jump off. This choice has nothing to do with buying up Kansas City. Instead, it is all about selling the Texans at a time when their stock has skyrocketed. Let’s see Watson beat a great defense and team before we start going nuts like the media will be over a rookie QB taking a massive step up in class this week. We’ll step in just before game time unless the line movement tells us differently. For now, we’ll hold off but we’ll tweet out our play when it’s official. That play will be Kansas City or nothing. Stay tuned.
The Rest of the Games
N.Y. GIANTS -3½ over L.A. Chargers
The Chargers knew coming into the 2017 season that they were going to be facing some long odds with pundits hooking their wagons to Kansas City, Oakland and Denver as their picks to win the division. Almost nobody was on the Chargers bandwagon and even fewer are on their side now that they’re playing to half-empty houses in a soccer stadium and are 0-4. There are some teams that just seem to be snake-bit. Eight of the Chargers 11 losses last year were by seven points or less. Three of their four losses this season have been by three or less. There comes a time when a locker room implodes with that kind of misery. It would seem that all the “close, but no cigar” rhetoric from last year in San Diego has followed the Chargers up the Cali coast and from where we sit, this team is not playable. The Chargers lack heart and guts. When they score, the defense gives it right back almost instantly. They always seem to be fighting it and chasing the game and while the Giants are 0-4 also, at least they’re showing emotion. The Chargers deserve to be 0-4 while the G-Men do not.
The Giants are absolutely on the verge of a win. They have already played Dallas, Detroit, Philly and Tampa Bay and take a step down in class here from all those other four. New York could have just as easily won its last two games, as the contest against Philadelphia went into OT and last week, the Bucs hit a game winning FG on the final play of the game to break the Giants hearts again. What we know for sure is that the Giants defense is tremendous while the Bolts’ defense is soft and gutless. We also like that the number came in at -3½ and not -3. That hook entices dog money but we preach that -3½ is a favorite number and not a dog number. One team will be 0-5 after this game and we’re convinced it won’t be the Giants. Play: N.Y. Giants -3 -115 (no bets).
CINCINNATI -3 over Buffalo
The Bills are 3-1 and could easily be 4-0, as their only loss was by six points against the Panthers, in which they held Carolina to nine points in Carolina. More importantly, the Bills last two victories were against Denver and Atlanta, two perceived Super Bowl contenders, which now has a massive influence on this market. Denver went into Buffalo two weeks ago and took a lot of money. Last week, the Bills went into Atlanta and the Falcons were heavily teased down. There have been a slew of ripped tickets betting against Buffalo the past two weeks and now that the market is jumping on, we’re jumping off. While we take nothing away from the Bills, they happened to catch both Denver and Atlanta at precisely the right time. Buffalo is improved yes but they’re not this improved. Lost in the great results is that they have scored 21, 3, 26 and 23 points respectively so it’s the defense that is winning them games. Buffalo backers here will have to hope that the defense continues to handle games while the offense stays out of the way. That’s not likely so if you jump on Buffalo here, you are two weeks too late.
Suddenly, the report of the death of the Bengals doesn’t seem quite as certain as it did two weeks ago. After scoring just nine points in two home games that appeared to leave the Bengals D.O.A. in mid-September, Cincinnati went into Green Bay in Week 3 and nearly pulled the upset off before falling in OT. The Bengals subsequently went out and hammered the Browns 31-7 last week. However, a win over the Browns does nothing to give Cincinnati any market credit. Nobody watched that game anyway. What sticks out is the last8ing impression of the Bengals sickening performance in Week 1 and they’re even worse performance in Week 2 in prime time against the Texans. The media has massive influence on market perception. Andy Dalton has been getting ripped apart by said media this year. Dalton has made the playoffs in each of his first five seasons but has not won over any media types or the fan base because he couldn't help them win a playoff game. Dalton was lousy in his first three games of this season, brilliant in the fourth, and seems headed for basically the same year he usually has. That’s good enough for us, as Cincinnati would’ve been a -7 point fav over Buffalo last year and probably in Week 1 and Week 2 of this year too. However, the market reacts to results, which provides us with opportunities on a weekly basis because results are so misleading. Give us the Bengals -3 at home against Buffalo and with their current rosters, that’s a bet we’d make 100% of the time and make no exceptions here. Play Cincinnati -3 -115 (No bets).
Carolina +118 over DETROIT
At first glance, the Lions look like a really strong play this week. While Detroit is 3-1, they should be 4-0 after their game-winning touchdown against the Falcons was overturned in Week 3. In Week 1, the Lions whacked the Cardinals 35-23. They followed that up with another double-digit win on the road versus the Giants on Monday Night Football in front of the world and last week they again went on the road and beat the Vikings who are always tough at home. The Lions have covered every game this season, save for the hose job against Atlanta and the market has taken notice. While the Lions look good on paper, we’ve seen some holes in their game and last week in Minnesota was no different. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked six times and the Lions defense, while highly regarded, gave up a combined 53 points at home to Arizona and Atlanta.
The perception in the market is that the Lions have a very good defense and the Panthers do not but Carolina is 4th in yards allowed per game (282) while Detroit is 15th (322.5). The Lions are less than stellar against the pass, giving up 236.3 yards per game in the air which put them in the bottom third in the league while the Panthers are tied for 7th at just 194.8 passing YPG. The talking heads aren’t giving the Panthers much love either even after they went to New England and beat the Patriots, CBS’s Brady Quinn said he’s, “not buying it” when it comes to the Panthers’ offense. Also working against the Panthers this week in the market is the fact that this is their second straight road game but every team in the NFL has a two or three game roadie each season so we do not put much stock in that situation. Sure the Panthers were blown out at home by the Saints but they’ve been road warriors the last two seasons by going 5-1 against the spread when they leave the Queen City. Carolina covered as a 3-point dog or less both times they were priced in that range in 2016 (Tampa, Oakland). There’s also been chatter that this is a “letdown” spot for the Panthers after they got that big W in Foxboro and maybe it is but oddsmakers set this line with the Lions as a small -2½ point home favorites. That is a very enticing number, as you cash your ticket if the Leos win by a field goal. We’re always suspicious of -2½-point home favorites that look good. That is an underdog price because a FG wins it for the host, which is an “enticing” wager. More than the X’s and O’s, pay close attention to the line because it oftens tells a story on its own and this is a classic example of that. Play Carolina +118 (No bets).
INDIANAPOLIS -1 OVER San Francisco
The 49ers put on a good showing in the desert in an 18-15 loss to Arizona to the relief of many Survivor pool players. San Francisco is now 0-4 and with losses to the Cards, Rams, Seahawks, and Panthers, the market doesn’t seem to be as down on this team as some of the other winless squads. San Fran's high scoring showdown with the Rams was nationally televised on Thursday Night Football and a 41-39 loss to the highest scoring team in the NFL doesn’t look too bad on paper, but the reality is that the 49ers were outclassed at home for much of that game and they needed a 19-point fourth quarter to make it interesting. The 49ers are also 3-0 in their last three games against the spread and 3-1 overall this season. That ATS record carries a lot more weight in the market than wins and losses. Most games come down to the play of the quarterback and Brian Hoyer has been awful, throwing more inceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) and he’s 30th in yards per attempt at 5.8 just behind Jay Cutler and ahead of DeShone Kizer, which is not the kind of company you want to keep.
We’ll say this about Jacoby Brissett as he fills in for Andrew Luck at quarterback for the Colts, he doesn’t look out of place. Sure Indy was walloped by the Seahawks in front of the football world on Sunday night but they gave "The Legion of Boom" far more of a fight than many expected. If you laid 12½ points with the Seachickens you likely weren’t feeling too good when the Colts took a five-point lead into halftime. We know we weren’t. The Colts are 1-3 without Luck and he's still at least a month away from returning. Until he does, market perception on the Colts is unlikely to change. Until Luck returns, Brissett is going to have free reign and that's fine with us. Brissett has 683 yards passing with two TD’s and two picks but he creates matchup problems because he’s very dangerous on the ground with 69 yards on 14 attempts and adding two more TDs since taking over as the starter in Week 2. More impressively is the fact that Brissett is ranked 12th in the league in yards per attempt ahead of guys like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger.
Brissett is completing 59.1 percent of his passes which might not sound great but he’s within one percentage point of guys like Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota, all young QBs with a much high profile in the market and none of them can run like Brissett. Don’t forget the second year QB spent a year under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and that kind of experience can’t hurt. Jacoby Brissett has franchise QB credentials. He has accuracy, speed, mobility, a great arm and size but because he’s a backup and because he’s playing in Indy and in the shadows of Luck, he’s getting little credit. This kid is good folks.
We are always looking for over and under-reactions and teams’ coming of prime time games are an easy target. The Colts were blasted by the Seahawks 46-18 and this market puts way more emphasis on the final score than they do on what transpired on the field. Indy took a 15-10 lead into the break in one of the toughest stadiums to play in the NFL. The 13th man in Seattle has made star QBs look ordinary. Two weeks ago against the winless Browns, the Colts took a 31-14 lead into the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas as Cleveland scored 14 straight points to make it a 3-point game. The Colts aren’t as bad as advertised and with Luck not expected to return anytime soon, they are playing with house money. We are also mindful of what Pinnacle is doing and when they are half a point higher on the favorite, we take notice. Pinny was ahead of the curve on this line early in the week and we emphasized in the past to not cross the sharpest book in town. The 49ers are coming off three divisional games in a row against the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks and they’ll play another NFC team next week in the Redskins. This week we've got value in a number that's a bit off because neither team will typically be what it appeared to be last week. The 49ers are a spent team after playing three divisional games in a row. Play Indianapolis -1 (No bets).
Baltimore +3 over OAKLAND
The Raiders ran into a buzzsaw last week in Denver and lost Derek Carr for much of the day but the defense came through and held the Broncos to only 16 points. The entire offense depends on Carr suiting up every week but he’s not going to here. That’s factored into the line so one would be foolish to bet on or against the Raiders because Carr is out. Derek Carr struggled for the last two weeks facing good secondaries in road games. He left the Denver tilt with a back injury that has been diagnosed as a transverse process fracture. He'll be out at least two weeks and maybe up until six weeks. EJ Manuel takes the reins for now and the offense takes a step down it did not need to take. This is only the second home game this year and the first was a 45-20 bombing of the Jets. What we have here is two teams’ whose stocks are low. Oakland has dropped two in a row and looked especially ugly in prime time two weeks ago against the Redskins but it’s Baltimore that has looked unplayable.
When the Ravens started 2-0 by outscoring their two opponents 44-10, there was a realistic reason for optimism – ignoring the fact that those wins came against Cincinnati and Cleveland. In the two weeks since, they’ve played legitimate playoff contenders in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. The Jaguars hammered the Ravens 44-7 in London and the Steelers built a 19-0 halftime lead on their way to a 28-9 road win in which Le’Veon Bell ran 35 times for 144 yards and two touchdowns. In the last two games, Baltimore has been outscored 80-16 and what initially looked like a team with playoff aspirations now looks like a team capable of getting blown out no matter where they play, be it at home, overseas, or on the road. However, now that the dust has settled and they’re back in a normal routine, we’ll trust them more than the Raiders to bounce back. Baltimore’s stock hasn’t been this low in some time, which makes us buyers here. Play Baltimore +3 -105 (No bets).
Miami +1 over TENNESSEE
The 2-2 Titans come off a whipping by the Texans and have now managed to produce every variation of good and bad. The Dolphins fall to 1-2 as their offense takes the final step in de-evolution and gets shut out on the international stage by New Orleans for f**k sakes. That’s the good news. The week before, the Dolphins scored a meaningless TD against the Jets with time running out, otherwise they would be coming off back-to-back games in which they failed to score a single lousy point against the Saints and Jets. Seriously? Miami looks like and has played like a joke the past two weeks. What they did against those two aforementioned teams resonates very loudly in the forum of public opinion. Miami’s only victory this year came by a single point against the now 0-4 Chargers. Of the 30 teams in the NFL, the Dolphins may have the least appeal in this market at this present time and we are in the buy low business. Therefore, Miami must be played here, as the Titans are absolutely, 100% the “trap” play of the week. Be very careful about fading the Fish here.
Tennessee appeared to have turned a critical corner early in the season by winning in Jacksonville 37-16 and winning a slugfest with Seattle 33-27 to improve to 2-1 with a date with Houston on the horizon. The Titans had the chance to take control of the AFC South with a win – improving to 3-1 with road wins over both the Jags and Texans. Instead, they lost in record-setting fashion. Houston scored 30 points in the first half and 27 points in the second half while out-gaining the Titans 445-195 and assaulting them on the ground and through the air. Making a bad situation worse was that quarterback Marcus Mariota was sidelined with a hamstring injury. What could have been a statement game for the positive – putting space between themselves and the rest of the division – it turned out to be a statement game for all the wrong reasons and has thrown the division into chaos, as everyone is right back in the thick of the race Tennessee could have reserved all for themselves.
Marcus Mariota was limited in every practice this week due to his hamstring and hasn't shown the mobility yet he needs to play. Mariota said he hoped to play and it will be game time decision. Matt Cassel will play if Mariota is not able. Forgetting the Titans might be the best approach here regardless of which QB starts. It’s just a bad game no matter how you break it down but the oddsmakers have made Tennessee a very enticing choice. Don’t bite. Play: Miami +1 -106 (No bets).
Survivor Picks - Week 5
Our Survivor picks this year will be twofold. We’ll usually recommend two choices every week, a safe one and a not so safe one. The problem with playing the popular pick or the biggest point-spread favorite is that when that team loses, you go down with a high percentage of the pool and if they keep on winning all year, the pool will be split several ways. A mix of both and avoiding potential upsets is not a bad strategy either. One of our cardinal rules is to never play road teams because big road favs get beat too often and when one inevitably goes down, it will knock out a good percentage of participants and you don’t want to be one of them.
Week 1 safe pick – Buffalo √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Minnesota √
Week 2 safe pick - Oakland √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Oakland √
Week 3 safe pick - Green Bay √ ---- Week 3 not so safe pick - Tennessee √
Week 4 safe pick - Seattle √ ---- Week 4 not so safe pick - Seattle √
Week 5 safe pick – Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
The safe pickings are slim this week so anyone that has used Pittsburgh will be forced to look elsewhere. The majority of your pool will be on Pittsburgh to beat Jacksonville or Philadelphia to beat Arizona and we prefer the Steelers over the Eagles this week. You see, Philly has played four very intense games in a row while the Steelers have not come close to peaking yet. Jacksonville is all defense and no offense so keeping pace with the Steelers in Pittsburgh figures to be a daunting task for Blake Bortles and his shaky talent and decision making.
Week 5 not so safe pick Cincinnati to beat Buffalo
One strategy we employ is not to pick the biggest point spread favorite on the board and hope that favorite goes down and takes a high percentage of the pool with them. Should Pittsburgh and Philadelphia lose this weekend, it is going to take down 85% of your pool or more. The alternative choice is to look elsewhere and hope one or both of those big favorite’s lose, although Philly isn’t really a big fav (-6½). That has us backing the Bengals against a Buffalo team whose stock is way too high after victories over Denver and Atlanta the past two weeks. Because of those two wins and because Cinci looked so bad the first two weeks (first impressions matter), the Bengals are being sold very short here.
Week 5 Survivor picks are Pittsburgh and Cincinnati
OC Dooley
Eagles -3.5 1st Half
One of the reasons why Arizona has been such a poor "spread" team (0-4) has to do with the schedule as today marks the THIRD time that they will playing in the eastern time zone. Due in part to injuries that have put constant pressure on the quarterback the Cardinals are averaging less than 19 points per contest. After playing consecutive games playing "over" the total Philadelphia has successfully COVERED the spread SIX IN A ROW. In an effortto get value on the spot I am personally wagering the Eagles in the FIRST HALF