Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 9th, 2016

Sleepyj

Bengals / Cowboys Under 45.5

Plenty of good things to look at for an under...First off the Cowboys might be without Dez Bryant for a second straight week...Even if he is go, his reps will be rather limited along with his play making ability...I also like the fact that the Bengals got a few extra days rest to get healthy on the defensive side of the ball....Prescott has done well this season and he has yet to throw and int, but this will be a game in which he might make a few mistakes..Bengals pass defense sits about mid pack in the league right now..Cincy backend has enough talent and speed to contend with Beasley who can be a matchup nightmare..If Dez can't go we will see a Dallas offense that tries to run a large amount here....Dallas played SF last week and only managed 245 passing...Now that's not all that bad, but this Bengals defense is much better than the 49ers...Burfict is back for the Bengals and Cincinnati will apply pressure to Prescott with the pass rush...I can't see the Cowboys opening it up here..More of a dink and dunk passing game with safe throws in front of the chains...Bengals will need to make the tackles to keep them from moving the ball....Elliot looks very good in his rookie season and I expect we see a large does of him in this game....On the flip side the Bengals offense ins't all that bad...The passing attack was to be rather dull this year has shown some improvement from last year at this point...I like the Dallas secondary overall and facing AJ Green is going to be a chore...I wouldn't be shocked if they double Green and force Dalton to his second read..he has never been good at reading coverage or finding his second man...Dallas rush defense is my only concern...They need to step up in that area for them to slow down the Bengals...Being at home and coming off a win should bring some intensity on both sides for the Cowboys. Bengals pass rush I think makes a statement in this game..I'm worried Prescott might look rather bad here to start the game and the Cowboys try to manage the game...I feel the same for the Bengals..Dalton on the road is scary with a much improved Dallas defense...I think they start slow on both sides and remain slow with caution all game...Waiting for either team to make the big mistake and the other team takes advantage..Razor close game IMO...Under looks like the best wager for this one.

Alex Smith

Chicago at Indianapolis
Play: Chicago -4.5

It's a clash between a pair of 1-3 clubs trying to turn their respective seasons around the Indianapolis Colts play host to the Chicago Bears on Sunday. The Bears picked up their first win of the campaign last week with a 17-13 victory over Detroit. Rookie running back Jordan Howard picked up 111 rushing yards and quarterback Brian Hoyer threw for 302 yards and a touchdown to give Chicago just it's second home win in the last two seasons. The Bears defense did a strong job of keeping the Lions up-tempo offense in check, yielding just 293 total yards and forcing two interceptions.

The Colts make the long 4,000-mile journey home from London after losing to division foe and previously winless Jacksonville, 30-27. The Jags outgained the Colts 5.1-3.9 ypp. And once again, Indy's offensive line was a key factor as Andrew Luck was sacked six times and the run game could only manage 94 yards on 25 carries (3.8 ypc). It extremely difficult to win and cover pointspreads in the NFL with a bad defense and bad offensive line. That’s exactly what has plagued Indianapolis as it has allowed a league-worst 16 sacks and 31.3 ppg (30th).

This is the first time in the history of the NFL International Series that a team is playing a game following a trip to the UK. Indianapolis requested this in order to have a later bye week. With all of Indianapolis’ struggles and the potential for a flat effort off a long trip (and bad loss), I see plenty of reasons to grab over a field goal with the road side.

Allen Eastman

Green Bay (-7) over New York

This game kicks off Sunday night, and I like the Packers to get a blowout win. They are coming off a bye week and Mike McCarthy will have his team ready. The Packers are 10-3 ATS after a week of rest and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in the month of October. The Giants have to travel for a second straight week after going to Minnesota on Monday Night Football. New York has a short week to regroup after that ugly loss, and they are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams that are above .500. This team looked terrible against the Vikings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series, and Green Bay will want revenge after three straight losses to the Giants. I think the Packers will take advantage of New York's depleted secondary, and Green Bay should send the G-Men to their third straight loss.

Strike Point Sports

Detroit (+3) over Philadelphia

The Lions are reeling coming off their third straight loss that dropped them to 1-3 on the season. They have looked much better than their record and should be a different team this weekend. Detroit can ill afford to drop to 1-4 and desperation usually brings out the best in an NFL team. Matt Stafford will do all he can to put them in position to get the win, so if the defense can play a little better than they have been this could be a much-needed win for the Lions. Philly is rested and off a bye week so Carson Wentz should have a more diverse playbook to work with and that could be a nightmare for the Lions. But as history shows us, rookies tend to be just that, and Wentz will be no different. He cannot possibly keep this pace of play and a trip to gloomy, nasty, and dirty Detroit will be his Achilles heel, so look for the Eagles to start slow and not have enough to catch up. The Lions hand them their first loss, 22-20.

Bryan Leonard

Chicago at Indianapolis
Play: Chicago +4.5

Tough not to take the points here with the Bears who are clearly a better team with Brian Hoyer under center. Last week the team finally played up to expectations in a 17-14 win over Detroit. Despite the poor record the Bears have only lost the yards per play battle once all season.

Indy is not getting the break of a bye week coming back from London. This is a team that is 1-3 on the season and has only won the YPP battle once this year. This club has now lost 9 of its last 15 games. Not the type of team we want to back laying points. Now on a 3-7 ATS run when favored.

King Creole

Patriots / Browns Under 46.5

Courtesy of 'Man's Best Friend' (Speedee's Top UNDER in my Totals Tipsheet newsletter). Speedee finally got off the schnide and brought home the bacon in his Dallas / San Francisco UNDER last week. He'll head back up to my old stomping grounds and GO LOW in the Patriots / Browns game.... backed up by one of our FAVORITE 'Under' situations. It's as simple as the pointspread. With Tom Brady back at the helm, New England has been installed as a H-U-G-E road favorite of -9.5 to -10.5 points in this game.

NFL big road favorites of -8 or more points (Patriots) have gone 5-21 O/U in the last 4 seasons. That includes an almost perfect 1-14 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 41 to 50 points.

The Patriots are off one of their most shocking home losses of all time.... losing by double digits to division rival Buffalo.

5-20 O/U since 2011: All NFL teams off a SU division home fav DOUBLE DIGIT loss (Patriots). These teams have gone 3-18 O/U when the OU line is < 50 points... including 1-13 O/U in the last 3 years.

In that game, the Patriots scored ZERO points.

1-8 O/U last 4 years: All NFL teams who scored ZERO points against a division opponent in their last game (Patriots).

Last week, we were ON a Cleveland OVER and they brought home the bacon. In fact, they've gone OVER in each of their last two games. The database tells us that it's time to switch gears from an OU standpoint...

1-9 O/U last 2 seasons: All NFL teams off BACK-to-BACK road losses that BOTH went OVER the TOTAL (Browns).

Stephen Nover

Chicago +4.5

We have two 1-3 struggling teams here. So usually the school of thought is take the points especially when the line is higher than the key number of four.

But there is a lot more to that simple premise in this matchup as to why the Bears should cover this number - if not upset the Colts straight-up.

The Colts' major edges are Andrew Luck and home-field. It's a circle-the-wagons game for the Colts, too, because their next two contests are on the road. The Bears' defense has multiple injuries with four of their better defenders out. So now the Bears rank among the bottom in terms of defensive talent.

That's the major negatives for the Bears. However, there are just as many negatives for the Colts plus their are key situational elements working against them.

Indy is not playing well. Morale is teetering with players calling out the general manager. The team just cut two defensive starters a month into the season perhaps displaying panic. Luck, once again, isn't getting adequate protection. He's on pace to be sacked 60 times - if he lasts the season. The Colts have failed to adequately protect their franchise quarterback. They started three rookies on the offensive line in last week's loss to Jacksonville. The Colts also lack a reliable possession wide receiver to pair with T.Y. Hilton with Donte Montcrief out.

Speaking of that Jacksonville defeat: It occurred in London. The Colts didn't get a bye this week. So jet lag becomes a factor. Most people have to deal with it when flying back from being overseas. I know I have and it usually takes me at least a week before I fully regain my senses. This also is a division sandwich spot for the Colts as they just got through with the Jaguars and have the Texans on deck followed by the Titans.

It's a necessary two-way street when backing a 'dog. You want to fade the favorite, but also believe in the 'dog. The Bears are well-coached defensively and their offense and team chemistry is better with Brian Hoyer at quarterback rather than Mr. Poor Body Language Jay Cutler. The statistics prove this: Hoyer has a 103 passer rating in two starts compared to Cutler's 75.7. Luck's quarterback rating, by comparison, is 91.1.

This isn't to say Hoyer can compare to Luck because he doesn't. But Hoyer is a savvy veteran, who can be effective with weapons. He has them with Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, red zone monster Zach Miller and Jordan Howard, who is providing the Bears with their best running of the season.

Chicago's confidence is up after a much-needed victory against the Lions last Sunday. The Bears' defense held the Lions without a touchdown. Matthew Stafford had thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games prior to that game against the Bears. The Lions, by the way, beat the Colts in Indianapolis, 39-35, opening week.

The Bears should be able to get their points against a vulnerable Colts defense that is depth-shy in the secondary and weak at linebacker. One of the reasons why the Colts are below par at linebacker is because they didn't resign Jerrell Freeman, one of their better defenders. Freeman is now a key for the Bears defense and familiar with the Colts where he played for the previous four seasons.

Chicago also is experienced playing in a dome setting having met the Lions every year at Ford Field.

Art Aronson

New York at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -7

Setting the scene: These teams are moving in opposite directions and we think those trends continues in Week 5 of the 2016/17 NFL regular season.

The Jets: They’re 1-3 SU/ATS. Last week they fell 27-17 at home to the Seahawks. It was a third straight loss for Gang Green as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick would finish just 23 of 41 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. So far Fitzpatrick has ten INT’s to go with just four TD’s. The ground game stalled last week as well, finishing with just 58 yards. WR Eric Decker didn’t play because of injury and if he does manage to go on Sunday, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity. New York averages 19.8 PPG, ranked 24th in the league. The defense concedes 26.2 PPG, ranked 22nd in the NFL.

The Steelers: After a humiliating defeat to the Eagles, Pittsburgh bounced back in a big way last week, destroying the Chiefs 43-14. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 27 for 300 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. So far Big Ben has 11 TD’s and four INT’s on the year. RB Le’Veon Bell made his triumphant return after a three-game suspension and finished with 144 yards. So far Pittsburgh is averaging 27 PPG this year, while the defense concedes an average of 20 PPG, ranked 12th overall.

The bottom line: Note that New York is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road and only 4-7 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 at home and 13-9 ATS in its last 22 when playing the role of favorite. We think the home side rolls again this week, the Jets have more issues than just Fitzpatrick and all signs point to a blowout of epic proportions.

Randall The Handle

THE BEST

Texans (3-1) at Vikings (4-0)

The Vikings have been kind to their backers with oddsmakers often lining them up short, allowing tickets to be cashed almost weekly. Minnesota’s current 17-3 against the spread run (ATS) is an incredible streak in today’s NFL. The Vikes can continue being benevolent but this time by stepping in against them. This figures to be a flat spot for Mike Zimmer’s undefeated team. The excitement and anticipation of opening day, a Sunday prime-timer to showcase their new stadium and against the Packers no less, a showdown against defending NFC champion Carolina and a visit by the Giants this past Monday night have comprised Minnesota’s intense schedule. Not only will their mental makeup be different for this one, but the Vikings also have their bye next week, adding to an anticipated lack of focus against an ordinary AFC guest. The Texans aren’t flashy, but have been effective and this defensively minded group has enough going for it to stay close here. If needed, Houston also has the better receiving corps. A small total (40) suggests a low-scorer, a good thing when taking a handful of points. TAKING: TEXANS +6½

Bears (1-3) at Colts (1-3)

Win, lose or draw, we’re not prepared to give away a bunch of points with the lowly Colts. Indianapolis keeps getting priced incorrectly, perhaps on the basis of having a top rated quarterback. Andrew Luck can’t go it alone. Management has provided him the most dreadful support imaginable with its wretched offensive line that can’t protect him, a defence allowing 31.1 points per game and no ground game to relieve some pressure off its quarterback. Detroit’s lone win of the season came against these Colts in Indianapolis. Indy just lost to winless Jacksonville. It needed a last-minute touchdown to beat 1-3 San Diego. Simply put, this is a garbage team that isn’t getting recognized as such. Granted, the Bears aren’t exactly world beaters but their three losses have come against three winning teams that are a combined 9-2 this year. That was before Chicago earned its first victory last week over same Lions that took down the Colts. Whether it’s Brian Hoyer or Jay Cutler pivoting the Bears, either can carve up this feeble foe. TAKING: BEARS +4½

Falcons (3-1) at Broncos (4-0)

Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than whomever the Broncos send out as their quarterback for this one. Matty Ice is off to a torrid start with his team averaging 478 yards per game while leading the league in scoring by averaging 38 points per contest. Unfortunately, those stats are about to take a hit. The Broncos are the antithesis of the Falcons. Denver’s defence is an incredible unit that will take pride in slowing down these high flying birds. Atlanta won’t be facing weak defenders like the Saints, Bucs, Raiders and suddenly vulnerable Panthers. The visitor will be taking on a team that has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. Denver didn’t flinch versus Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston thus far, none of them able to surpass 20 points against its rock-ribbed defenders. Let’s also not ignore Atlanta’s defensive issues as it has allowed a 30th ranked 419 yards per game while giving up an alarming 31 points per contest. Defence trumps offence. You’ll be reminded here. TAKING: BRONCOS -5½

THE REST

Titans (1-3) at Dolphins (1-3)

Not anxious to be giving away points with a Miami team that needs a GPS device to find the end zone. The Dolphins will show 24 points versus New England, but 14 came in garbage time when the game was well out of hand. Scoring 24 at home in regulation against the Browns doesn’t count for much. They scored 10 and 7 in other two games respectively. The Fish aren’t good as hosts, either, with just one cover in previous eight here. Don’t be mistaken, the Titans don’t exactly titillate us either but there are signs of improvement and enough talent defensively to force unprotected Ryan Tannehill into mistakes and takedowns. Tannehill led team much better when receiving points as Fins have just two covers in past 10 when giving away any. TAKING: TITANS +3½

Patriots (3-1) at Browns (0-4)

We’re joining the sheeple, not caring how many points they have to give in this one as a motivated Tom Brady makes his much-anticipated return after serving a four-game suspension handed to him over the Deflategate saga. The Patriots came out of it a stellar 3-1 and now they’ll be looking for blood. Of course it would be the Browns as Brady’s first opponent. Cleveland is the only winless team in the league, surrendering 25 points or more in each of its games while playing moderate offensive teams. Brady will have Rob Gronkowski to throw to even though his fave target is on the limp. He also has Marcellus Bennett and the Browns struggle covering tight ends. Double-digit road faves are a dangerous undertaking but asking the menial Brownies to keep pace under these unusual circumstances is asking too much. TAKING: NEW ENGLAND –10½

Jets (1-3) at Steelers (3-1)

What have you done for me lately? That’s what fuels many of the pointspreads each week as bettors’ emotions are factored into these prices. Pittsburgh rolled over the Chiefs last week in the Sunday nighter for all to see while the Jets were manhandled by visiting Seattle. These New Yorkers have lost consecutive games, allowing 51 points and looking quite inadequate in the process. Pre-season spreads had the Steelers as a six-point choice for this one, but current perceptions have driven it up over the full touchdown mark and that’s where value is created. Pittsburgh still has trouble protecting Ben Roethlisberger and the Jets’ front seven are a meddlesome group that can harass the big guy. Jets also get RB Matt Forte back for this one and that should settle Ryan Fitzpatrick and his erratic tendencies. This is a lot of points. TAKING: JETS +7½

Redskins (2-2) at Ravens (3-1)

Have to wonder if Baltimore’s 2016 pedigree is credible enough after knocking off less-than-average Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville before losing to Oakland last week. Still, prefer leaning that way in the Battle of the Beltway as the Redskins won’t have any easy time of it against the league’s top-ranked defense, allowing just 256 yards per game. Baltimore is much better with Terrell Suggs back on the field after missing the 2015 season, as he and mates have amassed nine sacks so far. Rookie RB Kenneth Dixon is expected to make his debut and that might ignite a sluggish Baltimore ground game against Washington’s porous run defence. Redskins on a modest two-game streak but were rather ordinary versus Browns last week and they have home clash with Eagles on deck. Prefer host. TAKING: RAVENS –3½

Eagles (3-0) at Lions (1-3)

Not sure if Eagles benefit from an early bye, allowing them to read all of their accolades after an impressive 3-0 start behind rookie QB Carson Wentz. Adding more drama to this game is having former Detroit HC Jim Schwartz as Philly’s defensive co-ordinator. You know that the surly Schwartz would like nothing better than to stick it to his old employers. Detroit won its opener, but is on three-game skid since. However, three of four have been away games and this marks the first of a trio of home games. It will also be Philadelphia’s first indoor contest this season. Wentz has answered every challenge with poise and confidence but this is still the NFL and having the neophyte QB spotting road points against the experienced arm of QB Matthew Stafford is a leap of faith that we’re not ready to take quite yet. TAKING: LIONS +3

Bills (2-2) at Rams (3-1)

One of these two teams will be on an improbable three-game winning streak when the final gun sounds on this contest. Impressed with Buffalo’s consecutive wins against Arizona and New England respectively, this task might be too tall of an order to fill. The Bills will be coming down off their high after finally beating the Patriots in New England. While defeating a third-string quarterback may not be impressive to some, Buffalo remains all giddy about the feat. Not us. We’ll take it with a grain of salt as we lower our expectation for a game across three time zones against an emerging NFC opponent. Buffalo’s 28th-ranked offence will have a hard time finding points against a Los Angeles defence allowing just 19 points per game and one without its best wideout with Sammy Watkins lost for the season. TAKING: RAMS –2

Chargers (1-3) at Raiders (3-1)

Oakland on the rise while Chargers keep electrocuting themselves. Still, tough divisional matchup with pair that know each other well after splitting their past eight meetings including Raiders 23-20 overtime win last season on this field. San Diego bitten by injury bug once again but despite its poor record, have proven to be resilient and QB Philip Rivers is a gamer no matter what the conditions. Rivers will welcome the opportunity to exploit a Raiders defence that is allowing a league most 460 yards per game. Bolts a solid road ’dog with 19 covers in past 28 in that role while Oakland not the most reliable at home with just pair of covers in previous nine hosting and 0-4 ATS as a home favourite. Spotting points with team that can’t stop anyone is risky business. TAKING: CHARGERS +3½

Bengals (2-2) at Cowboys (3-1)

Can’t say we’re not concerned with Cincinnati’s inability to score touchdowns with Bengals being least efficient team in league once inside the red zone. Still, Cincy can play defence and having LB Vontaze Burfict back in action after serving a suspension for being an idiot, raises the level of this stop unit immensely. Bengals rested after 10-day break with extra time allowing focus on any outstanding issues. Jury is still out on the Cowboys as wins have come against Redskins, Bears and 49ers while losing opener to 2-2 Giants. This will clearly be best defence that rookie QB Dak Prescott will have faced thus far and while the young man has performed admirably, he must prove that he can compete with these types before we can endorse him at this short price. Bengals travel well, covering nine of the past 10 away. TAKING: BENGALS –1

Giants (2-2) at Packers (2-1)

A 29th-ranked pass defence combined with a 29th-ranked passing offence is cause for concern. We’re not talking about the Giants here, folks. Surprisingly, the Packers have allowed passers to eat up their secondary while superstar QB Aaron Rodgers has yet to get on track with his group of receivers, the aerial game averaging just 193 yards per contest. It’s never easy to win up at Lambeau but the G-Men are as unconventional as they come, commonly doing the opposite of what is expected of them. Eli Manning has the arm and the weapons to compete with any and with Green Bay’s best defender, CB Sam Shields, on the shelf, Manning can inflict some damage here. Eli 3-0 last three vs. Packers. Feature game should be closer than this line suggests. TAKING: GIANTS +7½

John Ryan

New England at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland +10½

Technical Discussion Points: Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 125-67 since 1983 good for 65.1% winners and made 51.3 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record. Another proven system supports this play posting a 69-33 since 1983 good for 67.6% winners and made 32.7 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New England is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland at home is 4-2 against the spread versus New England since 1992. Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Patriots are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Home team is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points: Cleveland has hardly been a pushover for the Patriots, winning in a rout at home in 2010 and losing on a last-minute touchdown at Foxborough in 2013. Kessler rallied the Browns from a double-digit deficit for the second straight week, only to see Cleveland failed to protect a three-point fourth-quarter edge in a 31-20 loss to Washington. Browns WR Terrelle Pryor, a converted quarterback, has 13 receptions and a touchdown over the past two games. The Browns have shown they play UP to their competition for most of the game. Take the many points with the Cleveland Browns.

Mike Lundin

Texans vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings -6½

The Minnesota Vikings are still undefeated, despite losing QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson to injuries. They're on an absolutely insane ATS run over the last couple of years and 4-0 ATS on the season. The bookmakers and the betting public will surely catch up sooner or later, but I like the Vikings to cover a touchdown here against the Houston Texans. Both teams rely on a solid D to bring home the wins, but the Texans are in trouble now with defensive end J.J. Watt (back) out for the season. They're off a 27-10 home victory against Tennessee but lost its lone road game for the season in Week 3, a 27-0 shutout at New England.

Sam Bradford is doing a decent job under center for Minnesota with four TD passes and no picks while Houston's Brock Osweiler has passed for five TDs but also been picked off six times. That won't cut it here against a Vikings D that has allowed just 12.5 points per game on the season and the team has a league-best plus-10 in turnover margin.

Buster Sports

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -6

The Minnesota Vikings are definitely one of the best defensive teams in the NFL and that defensive gets even better when they play at home as the crowd noise is almost unbearable for the opposing team when they try to run their offense. Today the Vikings defense play against the Houston Texans and if the last road game by the Texans was any indication, its going to be a long night for Brock Osweiler who had two interceptions last week which brings his season total up to 6 interceptions on the year. The Texans offense is ranked 24th in the NFL in total yards and we see the Vikings defense taking total control of this game similar to what we witnessed in the Texans only other road game of the year against the Patriots. The Vikings have been efficient on offense to back that strong defense and Sam Bradford is just getting better and has more confidence with this Vikings offense in each passing game. The oddsmaker has this line under the magic number of 7 at the time of this writing and we will be happy to take the Vikings in what we see is an easy win. Backing our selection is the fact that the Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and also the fact that the Vikings are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI -3½ over Tennessee

One of the biggest errors is putting too much emphasis on one game and that one game gets magnified when it is a prime time game. Watching football on Sunday is much different than watching it when there is only one game on. On Sunday, one will flip around to several different games or even watch the Red Zone in an effort to keep up with everything. However, during prime time games, we have no such luxury, therefore, all our focus is on two teams. The last time we saw the Dolphins was against Cincinnati in prime time and to say it was ugly would be an understatement. Those putrid performances during a prime time game have a way of sticking in one’s mind the following week. In other words, after watching Miami’s dismal effort in Cinci in which they had a mere 12 successful plays (out of 43) the entire game, who wants to lay points with them? Miami has one win this season and it occurred in Miami against Cleveland, a game the Dolphins should have lost outright. Lost in all this is that the Dolphins played and competed against New England and Seattle before that lethargic effort we saw last week. Overall, the Dolphins have played three Super Bowl contenders and their defense has held up quite well. With 10 days to prep and coming off a pathetic performance, the time to buy on the Dolphins is right now.

The Titans continue to lose but it’s not because of their defense, which is at least average and a bit better when at home. However, they are not at home and the offense just cannot post consistent points. Once they fall behind it is usually over because the passing has been sosub-standard that the Titans cannot hope to scratch their way back into a win. These are the worst set of wide receivers but they cannot throw the ball to themselves. The rushing effort has turned up in recent games but the passing offense remains too pedestrian. Marcus Mariota's second year is no better than the first and in fact may be a worse. He's thrown just four touchdowns on the year and none in the last two weeks. He has five interceptions and two lost fumbles and is getting stuck around 200 yards per game lately. Despite bringing in free agents and drafting talented rookies, Mariota has been unable to make any of them productive. The Titans have played some weak offenses other than catching a flat Oakland team in Week 3. The Titans still lost to the Raiders, 17-10. They’ll now go into Miami and face a team that was humiliated last week. We all know how teams respond after getting embarrassed. Lastly, Miami went into Tennessee last year and walloped them, 38-10. There will be no revenge here with the more likely scenario being a similar result.

DETROIT +3 Philadelphia

The last time we saw the Eagles, they destroyed the Steelers in Week 3 with a 34-3 home win. What makes that victory even more impressive is that the Steelers went on to absolutely crush the Chiefs the very next week. The Eagles are now 3-0 coming off an early bye week, and they have not won a game by fewer than 15 points. The Eagles have a rookie quarterback who has not thrown an interception. Through three games, all wins, Carson Wentz has thrown for 769 yards and five touchdowns. When Philadelphia traded away veteran quarterback Sam Bradford before the season began, it meant they were making a decision to throw Wentz into the fire and it has worked out beautifully…..so far.

After opening the season with a 39-35 victory over the Colts at Ford Field, the Lions have failed to find a victory since. They came close in Week 2’s one-point setback to the Titans, and even played decent in the 34-27 defeat at Lambeau. What was not expected, however, was the loss to a Bears team that some felt would go 0-16 this season. The squad now finds itself in the cellar, tied with Chicago for last place in the NFC North. Detroit had trouble generating offense in Chicago, gaining just 263 yards, 66 of which came on the ground. The Bears were missing their starting quarterback, running back and their star wide receiver was banged up. With a 1-3 record and failing to win last week against the pitiful Bears, the Lions are a hard sell this week at home to Philly and that's just the way we like it. This one doesn't pass the smell test, as action will likely be quite lopsided in favor of Philly but we forewarn you that the odds makers are not in the habit of giving away money.

The Eagles have a ton of market appeal right now while the Lions do not. However, Philly’s bye week was ill-timed, as it stops the momentum they were gaining. No team wants a bye while they are winning and perhaps a reality check awaits the Eagles here. Time will tell whether they are legit but the books are betting they are not quite this good. Oddsmakers made a bad call last week when they made Denver an easy looking 3-point favorite in Tampa Bay. The Broncs covered easily but don’t expect them to make the same mistake twice in two weeks. Wagering on NFL football is not about breaking down strengths and weaknesses and figuring out which team has an edge. If it were that simple, we would all be cashing in. It’s more about figuring out where vulnerable spots come from. It’s about buying low on undervalued teams and selling high on overvalued ones. Perhaps the Eagles are completely legit and go into Detroit and whack them. The more likely scenario however, is that Detroit plays a fine game and the Eagles get brought back down to earth. That’s how the odds makers see it and we like being on their side.

Note: We are almost guaranteed of getting a better price on Sunday by waiting so that's what we are going to do.

Also note that because of the incredible amount of work this time of year, baseball playoffs, hockey season starting, college football, CFL and NFL, we are likely not going to be able to post recomendations on every game. We'll do our best to add more games but we should be back on track next week in providing a full range of analysis on all NFL games.

CLEVELAND +10½ over New England

All eyes will be on Tom Brady this week now that his four-game suspension is mercifully over. The 3-1 Patriots come off a home shutout by the Bills when the magic finally ran out. But Brady returns and his first game is against a 0-4 team that has allowed nearly 30 points per game. The Patriots are heavily favored, even by the Cleveland fans.The last time the Pats were shutout at home was in the Battle of Bunker Hill back in '75. The defense still held the Bills to only one touchdown and now you can pretty much throw out everything that has happened from the start of the year up until now for the offense. We get the hype. We get the anticipation. We understand that Brady has a warranted chip on his shoulder and the Patriots could win by 40. The Brownies, meanwhile, have no chance to win by 40.

Regular readers of this space know the drill. This isn’t about predicting the winner or trying to figure out what will or will not take place on the playing field. This is about taking back hugely inflated points against one of the most anticipated returns over the past few years. What we know for sure is that Tom Brady is four weeks behind everyone else. Brady is also 40 years old and time catches up to everyone. Just ask Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, and Peyton Manning to name a few. Look, Tom Brady isn’t going to play nice. He’s pissed off and he’s out to prove a point. His suspension was completely unwarranted and perhaps the Brownies are the perfect victims for Brady’s wrath. However, we don’t spot double-digits to road teams. Besides that, are the Patriots that great to begin with? They caught an overrated Arizona team in Week 1, they caught a dead Texans team in Week 3, they nearly blew a big lead versus the Fish and they were shutout by Buffalo. Yes, everything changes with Brady working but spotting double-digits on the road in the NFL is about the worst bet you can make in this league in terms of winning percentage. Aside from that, we’re not asking the Brownies to pull off a miracle here. We’re asking them to play like they did against Miami and/or Washington and if tey can do that, chances are they’ll cover. Recommendation: Cleveland +10½ (no bets).

Note: This is another game we are going to wait on. The sense we get is that lots of money will come in on the favorite on Saturday and Sunday so we could be looking at +11 or +12 by Sunday. We'll update this when the time is right.

BALTIMORE -4 over Washington

One of the most difficult things to do when betting on NFL football or any other sport for that matter is to come right back on a team that cost you money the previous game. We had the Ravens last week and were not impressed with their performance at home against the Ravens. That is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. What we see here is a deflated number based on Baltimore’s not so impressive resume thus far combined with the Redskins winning two straight so let’s start with Washington’s two wins.

The Redskins fell behind the Giants 19-7 before rallying to win it late. The Giants had the ball last with a chance to win it but Eli Manning threw a pick and the ‘Skins held on. Last week, Washington defeated Cleveland. The Brownies had the lead the entire time through three quarters but turned the ball over three times in the second half to second to give the ‘Skins hope. Washington outscored Cleveland 14-0 in the final quarter but pretty it was not. We were high on the Redskins to start the year but after watching them for four weeks now, we are not impressed at all. This has been a dysfunctional franchise for years. It looked like they were going to break that pattern by they’re not. Dysfunctionality and a bad aroma surround them. The Redskins players are an undisciplined bunch that could easily be 0-4 right now. If you have watched the Giants and Browns play football, Washington’s narrow victories over that pair reveals even more of just how vulnerable and soft they really are. These Ravens have not had trouble refreshing, recharging and getting serious about winning after losing a game that was in their grasp and the Redskins are precisely the team that isn’t likely to provide much resistance. We were wrong about the Redskins and will look to take advantage of their misleading and rather troubling two-game winning streak.

Rob Vinciletti

Jets vs. Steelers
Play: Jets +7½

The Steelers are 0-16 to the spread as a favorite off a home win when facing a team that has forced an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. The Steelers fit a negative system that is based on their blowout win which has the dog covering over 80%. The Steelers are 0-6 ats at -7. or more off a win where they never trailed. The Jets had their best week of practice all year and had much more energy while clearing up some of the communication issues they have had on both sides of the ball. The Jets are 8-0 to the spread as a dog off a 10+ point loss where they allowed 4 or more sacks. Jets should be much more competitive today.