Matt Mohr
California vs. Oregon St
Play: California -13½
If Cal is going to make a run at the Pac 12 title this is the place to start as the Beavers have not looked good in their last 2 games giving up an average of 42.5 points. I expect Cal to put up at least 42 and it would be surprise me if they hang 55 on the Beavers. I project this one being a track meet as neither team has a sound defense however the edge goes to Cal due to playing better competition. On the offensive side Cal has an advantage in several key categories; points per game(42), total offense(548), passing(428).........you get the point. The Golden Bears are going to put up points and their defense will make some key stop to ice this game mid-way through the 3rd.
Matt Josephs
Florida International+6
FIU is coming off their first win of the season with their new interim head coach. Now they have a good chance for a second one as they play at UTEP. The Miners are pretty pathetic offensively with just 333.6 yards per game. FIU isn't much better although they probably have a more talented unit. UTEP's QB situation is up in the air, but does it really matter for a team that has scored just 35 points over their last four games. The key will be the team who can stop the run better. FIU has covered in 10 of their last 17 conference games. They have also covered in seven of their last 12 against a team with a losing record. I may be wrong here, but I like the road team getting points.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Denver
Pick: Atlanta +6
The Atlanta Falcons started last season at 5-0 and quickly fell apart to finish 3-8 miss the playoffs. They are 3-1 to start this season, and the offense is clicking by far better than any other NFL team. The Ryan to Jones connection is becoming the most dangerous in the league. The Denver offense has been average from the line of scrimmage, while the back seven on defense is elite, which will provide the opening I see here for the Falcons on the ground. The Falcons have generated 4.7 yards per carry against teams allowing 4.0. The Broncos are a half yard worse stopping the run vs. lesser running games. Matt Ryan has actually played to a 12-13 SU record against teams that are .750 or better on the season, with a passer rating of 97.8, so he rises to the occasion vs. the better teams. Teams that start the season at 4-0 SU/ATS cover just 42% of he time in game five. These teams are pretty close right now, and more like a FG-spread type of game, so the line value is on the Falcons. Grab the points and play on Atlanta.
Dave Cokin
Chicago at Indianapolis
Play: Chicago +4.5
And we have a first this week in the NFL! The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to play this weekend after being involved in one of the London games the prior week. To my knowledge, this has never happened before.
I’m not really sure how to quantify this into my power ratings for the game or my analysis, so this is strictly guesswork. But I docked the Colts one point for this situation, and added to what I had already come up with for this game, that pushed me to the window with a bet on the Bears.
I’m not going to make an overly positive case for the Bears. Chicago is not a good football team, although I do believe there should have some positive momentum on their side following last week’s win against the Lions.
I also think that while Brian Hoyer is no great shakes at QB, he’s a better fit than Jay Cutler. That’s not based on talent levels, as Cutler has always had the physical tools to be a star. But he’s not, and no one can convince me he has great leadership skills. Call it convoluted logic if you desire, but I’d honestly rather have Hoyer than Cutler under center.
As for Indianapolis, I’m duly unimpressed. In case you missed last week’s effort, the Colts were terrible. Andrew Luck had a grand total of 47 yards passing through the first three quarters. His offensive line offered scant protection. The final score was close, but the Jaguars share looked like the better football team. That’s the Jacksonville Jaguars, folks.
The Indy defense is among the league’s least efficient, so there’s very little I can come up with that tells me the Colts are the right side in this football game.The one area where they have what appears to be a substantial edge is on special teams, and there’s always the possibility that key play or two coming out of that aspect of the game could be the difference maker.
But between my numbers and the scheduling dynamics, I feel confident that I have a good chance to cash a ticket on Sunday with the Bears, and I’ll be happy to take the available points.
SCOTT SPREITZER
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Play: San Diego Chargers +3.5
I'm backing the Chargers plus the points on Sunday. San Diego continues to play close ballgames, but coming up on the short end of the stick. They lost in OT to KC...a game most felt they should have won, and dropped a four-point decision to Indy and suffered a one-point loss to New Orleans, a game where we cashed with the Saints. SDG could have won any and all of those three games, but instead they're sitting 1-3 SU. Philip Rivers is playing well, connecting on 68% of his passes with 7 TD passes and just 1 INT. Rivers has led the Chargers to the NFL's 7th ranked passing game, while averaging and NFL 3rd best, 30.2 ppg. While Oakland's offense has been on fire, the defense is as bad as the offense has been good. Oakland heads into this one ranked 2nd to last in yards rushing allowed per game and a dead last 32nd in both yards passing allowed and total yards allowed per game. SDG enters on a 7-1 ATS road run, while the Raiders have dropped five straight home games ATS. And like their first home game of the season (ATL 35-28 win & cover) we'll go against them in their second home tilt, also.
THE PREZ
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Play: New England Patriots -10.5
The National Football League enters Week #5 with an early matchup that features the return of the most popular sports figure in North American. Tom Brady makes his 2016 debut when the New England Patriots (3-1) take a trip to Lake Erie to square off against the winless Cleveland. Brady was suspended four-games for his role in Deflategate and returns just in time to take the lead role in the Patriots huddle after the offense sputtered last Sunday. The Pats suffered their first shutout loss in the history at Gillette Stadium.
After tomorrow’s 1 p.m ET kickoff at FirstEnergy Stadium both franchises will have use three quarterbacks in the first full month of the season. The Patriots have started Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Jacoby Brissett while Brady was suspended and the Browns have used a different quarterback in each of their first three games.
So you believe the pointspread in Brady's first game back is shaded?
You would be correct.
So you believe that Brady figures to be a bit rusty after missing the first quarter of the season
You will probably be correct again.
The fact that Rob Gronkowski has a mere one catch on the season and still isn’t 100 percent has clouded your soothsayer ability in this Pats vs. Browns event?
You are not alone.
The first variable to measure is how much the marketplace has inflated the current numbers. The second is to get as much information from the janitors that roam the Patriots practice field and the lockerroom gathering as much information as you can about what the game plan is for Sunday’s event on Energy Field.
After you have accessed the aforementioned information it would be wise to throw it all to the side and comprehend; you may not be getting a scrap of value laying the double digits in the Patriots and Browns affair and you might even know if Coach B and his staff have scripted Brady’s first series but in a nutshell none of it matters
You either back Brady and his troupe in his return to the gridiron or you pass on the game.
Don’t believe for one minute that Tom Terrific hasn’t been taking snaps and tossing the ball around to his buddies during his holiday. Don’t believe for one minute he isn’t prepared to take a few shots from the Browns defense. And don’t… not for one second… believe that Brady's last live game action in Week #4 of the preseason didn’t matter because it did.
Brady completed 16-of-26 passes for 166 yards tossing one touchdown and a single interception in the exhibition finale. Brady is not only going to be running at a high RPM when he takes the first snap in Sunday’s game he is going to be focused, competitive and juiced.
Brady’s favorite target has been on the mend since Week #1 and while he is not completely healed he will be on the field and ready to assist his quarterback in a big win. Gronkowski was limited in team reps again Thursday by a hamstring injury but expect Brady to have two capable tight ends vs. Cleveland. Big receiver Marcellus Bennett has a pair of 100-yard games in the absence of Gronk and the New England defense is better than advertised
The only thing missing from the Brady Hoopla on Sunday would be if Tom Terrific could play defense and power rush Browns rookie quarterback Cody Kessler. If there is any questions as to what scheme the Browns coaching staff would like to take in this Week #5 event, the answer is simple and sweet, Cleveland will try to eat clock with a run-heavy scheme and keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field.
The Browns are the top rushing offense in the league averaging 150 yards per game on the ground. The offensive line has done a great job of blocking for running back Isaiah Crowell and cool-as-the-other-side-of-the-pillow Kessler has rallied the offense and engineered two consecutive 10-plus point comebacks, the latest, however, resulted in the Washington Redskins holding off Kessler and the Browns to earn a 31-20 victory
The Cleveland defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game and is putting zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
MIKE ROSE
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -4
The Ravens underwent one of the worst seasons ever under the current regime last year. Injuries played a major role, and even though numerous playmakers were shelved, Baltimore still went on to win five games and closed the season with pointspread covers in four of their last six played games. Still, it was tough to gauge how good or how bad the Ravens were even after getting out to a perfect 3-0 start. Toppling Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville was nothing to brag about, so last week’s tilt with the Raiders was a litmus test of sorts. Even though they lost and failed to cover their first game of the year, John Harbaugh’s squad displayed some solid grit and determination to fight back to take a lead before ultimately falling short.
If not for some badly timed turnovers by Cleveland last week, the Redskins would have lost their third straight home game even after getting out to a 14-0 lead. The magic from a year ago simply hasn’t carried over into 2016, and this looks to be a very bad spot for Cousins and company with the Ravens entering Week 5 off their first loss of the season.
Washington is middle of the road in terms of offensive yard per point average, while Baltimore is conceding the fewest yards per game in the league (256) and allows just 18 points per game (#7). Defensively, Washington isn’t even in the same stratosphere. Even though Washington has been a lucrative side to back when in the road dog role, this looks to be an excellent get-well spot for the home team.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Play: Chicago Bears +5
Tough spot for the Colts, having just played against the Jaguars in London last Sunday. This is the first time the NFL has not given a team a bye the week after playing in London. The Colts are struggling to begin with, and now you can add some serious jet lag to their woes. It takes more than a week to truly recover from over-seas travel, which is why the league has always positioned a team's bye week immediately following their London game. It will likely seem as if the Indy players are wearing cement cleats as this game progresses.
The Colts are a mess right now, jet lag notwithstanding. The offense has sputtered for the most part, and the offensive line just gave up SIX sacks to the Jaguars. They also have a banged up defense that couldn't slow down Blake Bortles and the previously winless Jaguars last Sunday in London. This Colts defense has allowed 31 points per game, and that was without "spaghetti legs." The Bears offense clearly rates the edge over the Colts defense, even if QB Jay Cutler returns to the starting lineup.
Chicago's defense has gone mostly unnoticed. But consider they picked off Lions QB Matthew Stafford twice and held him to NO TD passes last Sunday when he had thrown multiple TD passes in eight of his last nine games. The Bears D has some injury issues as well, but they proved they can play. Head coach John Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio always have these guys coached up and well prepared. They should be able to slow a Colts offense that has only produced five TDs in their last three games.
Bears head coach John Fox is 12-3-1 ATS on the road following a win as a dog. I simply can't see the struggling, jet-lagged Colts covering this number. Grab the points with the CHICAGO BEARS on Sunday.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Play: Chicago Bears +5
Now that Jay Cutler has been downgraded to "doubtful" for Sunday's game against the Colts, I am prepared to move forward with my recommendation on Chicago + the points behind Brian Hoyer. Indianapolis is the first NFL team to play the week immediately following a game in London (every other team has been given a bye, including Jacksonville this week).
Look for Chicago running back Jordan Howard to have a big game against an inept Indianapolis front seven that is allowing 22.5 points per game to opposing running backs this season (29th in the NFL). In Week Four against Detroit, Howard rushed for 111 yards on 23 carries and added 21 yards receiving on three receptions.
Chicago tight end Zach Miller should also have a productive afternoon against an Indianapolis secondary that is ranked dead last in covering opposing tight ends. Hoyer has played well over the last two weeks by taking care of the football and minimizing mistakes, which is what head coach John Fox's offensive system needs from that position.
Interestingly, the Colts' defense has been approximately league-average on every down except second, where they are yielding an NFL-worst 8.1 yards per play. Only one other NFL team gives up more than 6.7 yards per play on second down, and that would be the defensively-challenged Oakland Raiders (7.2 yards per play on second downs).
Finally, no player has been sacked more than Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck this season. Entering 2016, Luck had never been sacked more than ten times through the first four games of the regular season. Due to an injury-riddled offensive line that has been forced to start three rookies, Luck has been sacked fifteen times this season!
With coach Fox standing at 12-3-1 ATS on the road following an upset win, take the Bears plus the points as Oskeim Sports' Free NFL Pick for Sunday, October 9.
BUSTER SPORTS
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -6
The Minnesota Vikings are definitely one of the best defensive teams in the NFL and that defensive gets even better when they play at home as the crowd noise is almost unbearable for the opposing team when they try to run their offense. Today the Vikings defense play against the Houston Texans and if the last road game by the Texans was any indication, its going to be a long night for Brock Osweiler who had two interceptions last week which brings his season total up to 6 interceptions on the year. The Texans offense is ranked 24th in the NFL in total yards and we see the Vikings defense taking total control of this game similar to what we witnessed in the Texans only other road game of the year against the Patriots. The Vikings have been efficient on offense to back that strong defense and Sam Bradford is just getting better and has more confidence with this Vikings offense in each passing game. The oddsmaker has this line under the magic number of 7 at the time of this writing and we will be happy to take the Vikings in what we see is an easy win. Backing our selection is the fact that the Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and also the fact that the Vikings are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT PACKERS
PLAY: GIANTS +7
I won’t have anything close to an extensive analysis here, as this is pretty much a play I’m making simply off my numbers and what I feel is a somewhat inflated betting line.
I’m going to take my chances here with the Giants. Green Bay has some obvious
scheduling advantages with the bye week and NYG having played at Minnesota on
Monday. But that certainly has been input into the line as the Packers are
laying significantly more than the Vikings did just a handful of days ago.
I believe that’s an overreaction based on public perception, especially with the fact the
Giants got stuffed at Minnesota. They ought to have some easier going against
the Packers defense. I made this line GB -4, so I think we’re getting good value
and I’m betting the Giants.
Andy Iskoe
NY Jets +9
Pittsburgh rebounded with a dominating win over Kansas City after that stunning 34-3 loss at Phily. The Jets are off 2 ugly losses in which they lost a total of 11 turnovers, the first of which was their 24-3 loss at KC. This is the NFL. Logical reasoning holds that since in back to back weeks the Chiefs routed the Jets and were themselves then routed by the Steelers this should be an easy win for Pittsburgh. But history has shown this often makes a case for the ugly underdog. The Jets have fared well against the Steelers with 3 upset wins in 5 regular season games over the past decade. They've faced a tough early schedule. Both defenses have excelled against the run but have been vulnerable to the pass. Pittsburgh can be expected to bounce following last week's rout of the Chiefs while the Jets will be playing with desperation and will pay extra attention to avoiding mistakes.
Bruce Marshall
Patriots / Browns Over 46.5
Before getting carried away with N.E. and Tom Brady's return, a few warnings to the masses who created one-way Belichick traffic at Vegas sports books last week when betting the Pats past a key number of 7 vs. Rex Ryan before late word came that Jimmy Garoppolo was NOT going to play. Also, keep in mind that N.E. is 4-13 its last 17 as visiting chalk, and that was with Brady available. But the Pats are off of a rare loss, which over the past decade has been a good go-with indicator (26-11 vs. line L37 in role). Belichick has long feasted upon rookie QBs, such as Browns' Cody Kessler. Better value however might be "over" as Hue Jackson's Oakland (in 2011) and Cleveland. teams "over" 9-2 L 11.
Vegas Butcher
TEN @ MIA -3
The Titans lose week 1 to MIN because they allow two turnovers get returned for TD’s. They lose week 4 at HOU due to allowing a punt return be returned for a TD. And they lose to OAK at home in week 3 by a TD, after holding the #2 ranked offense to 0 points, while only putting up only 7 against the 29th ranked D in the second half. At this point it’s fair to wonder if coaching is a major issue here as Mariotta looks terrible, players are making poor decisions, and the level of execution is simply lacking. But it’s important to note that even with these kind of ‘fluky’ plays, Tennessee has been very competitive this year as they were ‘in it’ in each game this season. Of course the Titans will be facing a team with similar issues in Miami. Dolphins looked horrific this year as well as Tannehill looks like a ‘rookie QB’ out there, the secondary non-existent on defense, and Suh as the most over-paid player in the league. Miami is coming off a Thursday game, so had 10-days to rest/prepare for this one, but will that be enough time to right the ship? This team was listed at -5.5 in the off-season for this matchup and with the line dropping to -3 there’s an indication that the bookmakers have over-valued Miami and the Gase effect. Lean: TEN +3
NE @ CLE +10
He’s back!! Brady is finally set to make his season debut. Even so, this line is still 3-points higher than it was set at in the off-season (-7 NE). Even with the inflated number, the public is all over the Pats (85%+). Though there’s no value in backing the Pats, and a double-digit home underdog is very appetizing, this is a tough spot to back the Browns. They’re starting a rookie QB who is averaging a measly 6.4 PY/A with 1 TD in 2 games. Clearly, the Browns are playing it ‘safe’ with him in the lineup. That works against MIA and WAS, two mediocre opponents, but against the Pats that won’t do. You know Brady will want to run up the score. Kessler will need to make plays, and by what we’ve seen so far, he’s not ready. At the same time, let’s not forget that NE is coming off a horrible loss at home, where they got shut-out to the Bills and Rex Ryan. You know Belichick will be motivated to get back on the winning track, as will the players. I think this will be a tough game for the Browns. PASS
NYJ @ PIT -9
The Steelers were -6 in this matchup in the off-season and -7.5 when the line initially came out on Monday. So at the current number, the only way to look is to the visitors. Remember, in the NFL, no team looks as good as their ‘best’ performance or as bad as their ‘worst’. Pittsburgh got steamrolled by the Eagles one week and then came back and put on a clinic against the Chiefs the next. I expect them to drop down to earth a bit this week as maintaining such a high level of efficiency in consecutive weeks is pretty hard. To make the matters worse, Pittsburgh has a lot of injuries they’re dealing with. They’re starting a Chris Hubbard at RT who is making his first career start and BJ Finney (an undrafted player) at guard. Jets rank top-10 in ASR% so they should be able to get some pressure on Roethlisberger. On the other side, Pittsburgh will be without 3 defensive starters: Shazier, Golden, and Gilbert. Fitzpatrick has been bad this season, but this is the game where he should clean up his act. Pittsburgh ranks 32nd in pass-pressure defensively, while Jets’ O-line is 3rd in pass-protection. Fitzpatrick should have a clean pocket all day long and I’d expect some regression to the mean in the turnover department for New York. Bottom line is that this line is over-inflated, and because the Steelers aren’t dealing with injuries to any of their skill-position players, most people aren’t aware of the fact that this team will be very short-handed for today’s game. Lean: NYJ +9
WAS @ BAL -3.5
Facing the leagues’ worst run-D, Baltimore found the right time to re-discover their run-game last week. With Terrance West looking competent, and the debut of rookie Dixon this week, the Ravens will look to have a balanced offensive approach in this one. It should help the matters that Breeland, Phillips, and Cravens are out and Kerrigan is playing with a hyperextended elbow. Washington’s D is going to be in a poor shape. On the other side, Baltimore ranks 4th overall and 1st against the run. I fully expect the Ravens to make Washington one-dimensional, and let Cousins try to win this game. He’s been pretty mediocre so far this season, and of course fairly turnover-prone as is his M.O. My model has this game at -6.5 BAL so this one feels a tad short. Lean: BAL -3.5
PHI @ DET +3.5
The Lions were -1 in the off-season and +2 when this line initially opened earlier this week. Of course losing to the Bears will do that to the number so it’s not a surprise it went up. What is surprising is that it crossed “3”. Philly goes from being +3 @ CHI a few weeks ago to -3.5 @ DET? Detroit still has a top-10 offense capable of keeping the team in the game no matter what. Value is on the home-underdog here. Lean: DET +3.5
CHI @ IND -4.5
I think the Colts are doing something no team has ever done before: play in England one week and NOT have a BYE the next. Bears showed some competency on D and the offense is in much better shape with Hoyer and Howard starting. Chicago is also getting Trevathan back, which is a huge gain to their LB group. Colts look ‘bad’ out there, Luck seems to be playing hurt, and of course as mentioned earlier, jet-leg could be a factor. Lean: CHI +4.5
ATL @ DEN -4
Paxton Lynch is making his debut, and though he looked decent against the Bucs last week, let’s see how he does in a full game. I think Atlanta will sell out to stop the run, and force the rookie into making plays. On the other side, the Falcons have a matchup advantage with their run-game. As good as Denver’s D has been, their run-D is bottom-10 and Atlanta features one of the more potent attacks in the league. I expect this to be a fun, close game and points should be at a premium. Lean: ATL +4
BUF @ LAR +1
That’s a lot of respect that the Bills are getting after beating a ‘not that good’ Arizona team and then shutting down NE who were playing their 3rd string QB. Rams are off two impressive road-wins, which followed and impressive home win against the Seahawks. So what gives? Well, it looks like St Louis will be without Quinn, Hayes, and Brockers. That’s 3 out of their 4 D-line starters! No wonder the Bills are favorite now and the line looks like it’s about to rise. Still, coming off a huge shut-out @ NE and now traveling all the way to the West Coast got to be brutal. Buffalo is a ‘better’ team but this is a tough spot for them. PASS
SD @ OAK -3.5
The Chargers could easily be 4-0 right now as all 3 of their losses came after they were up in the 4th quarter. While San Diego can’t close out games, Oakland seems to be winning them in the last seconds of games. This game should be a shoot-out as neither D is very good and San Diego lost their top cover corner Jason Verrett. Still, Rivers and Co. should be able to move the ball here and I expect a close game between two division rivals. Lean: SD +3.5
CIN @ DAL +2.5
Wow, Dallas is getting zero respect here. Cincy is a good team but they barely beat the Jets (won by 1) and their win against Miami isn’t that impressive as the Dolphins are horrendous. What stands out is that Cincy was never in the game against quality opponents like PIT and DEN. Dallas is a quality opponent as well, plus they’re at home. The most efficient run-game in the league is also getting their best O-lineman back as Tyron Smith is expected to rejoin the squad. Lean: DAL +2.5
NYG @ GB -7
Giants will have both their corners back for this one, which is important if you’re looking to slow down this Packers offense. Still this secondary is missing a couple of safeties which is an issue, especially against a Packers team coming off a BYE. Packers were -8 in the off-season so it’s interesting that the number is at 7 here. This one is an easy pass. PASS
Rob Vinciletti
Jets vs. Steelers
Play: Jets +7½
The Steelers are 0-16 to the spread as a favorite off a home win when facing a team that has forced an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. The Steelers fit a negative system that is based on their blowout win which has the dog covering over 80%. The Steelers are 0-6 ats at -7. or more off a win where they never trailed. The Jets had their best week of practice all year and had much more energy while clearing up some of the communication issues they have had on both sides of the ball. The Jets are 8-0 to the spread as a dog off a 10+ point loss where they allowed 4 or more sacks. Jets should be much more competitive today.