Brandon Lee
Red Sox -142
I just don't believe the Red Sox are going to get swept by the Indians, not with Game 3 at home. Boston might be in a big hole, but this team isn't going to push the panic button and I look for them to respond in a big way on Sunday. The Red Sox will give the ball to Clay Buchholz, who closed out the season throwing like an ace, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Going back over his last 7 starts, Buchholz has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of those outings. I'll take my chances with Buchholz and the Red Sox offense at home against the Indians Josh Tomlin, who I just don't trust in this spot. Tomlin had a 4.31 ERA in 15 road starts and was really struggling before getting to face the White Sox and Royals slumping offenses 4 times in his last 4 starts. More times than not, when Tomlin has faced a potent offense like Boston, he's struggled to get the job done.
Tony George
Redskins vs. Ravens
Play: Redskins +4
Well as I stated numerous times last week, and on my SB Nation Radio Show that Baltimore was a false favorite last week against Oakland. Indeed the Raiders got it done again late in the game against the Ravens and now they face a Washington capable of matching up well against them, despite the inconsistent play of Kirk Cousins at QB.
The Ravens 3 wins have come over Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville. The common opponent are the Browns who Washington beat by 11 and the Ravens beat by 5 in a come from behind win. Not the best barometer for a comparison but I do like the number in this game. As always in the NFL you are betting into numbers and not games and over the fall number of 3 here is a crucial as this line as of Saturday is still at 4, but dropping to 3.5 in some books right now as Westgate in Vegas just dropped it to 3.5 and the Wynn followed suit as some sharp money is hitting the Redskins.
The rub here is the Skins offense who has put up 60 points in the last 2 games versus a good Ravens defense which is top ranked overall and quietly has played well, but they are suspect through the air as Oakland exposed and the lofty defensive ranking may be skewed somewhat because of their soft schedule. Joe Flacco is ranked 30th in the NFL in passing and while the Ravens look to keep this a low scoring affair which plays into their hands, I think the Redskins with multiple weapons on offense and Cousins getting more comfortable as a starter will make this a 3 point game one way or the other and an outright Skins win would not surprise me here. Washington is putting up 29 ppg on the road so far this season, and while the Skins defense is suspect, not convinced the Ravens can expose that. No doubt Harbaugh is the better coach in this game, but I do not think he has the better team.
Ray Monohan
Redskins vs. Ravens Ravens
Play: Ravens -4
The Ravens welcome in the Redskins on Sunday and it's the home team that has the value laying the points.
Baltimore will get a look at a defense that has been very shaky and a struggle this season. Washington was actually given fits by Browns rookie QB Cody Kessler last week and they have really struggled against the run.
Washington allows 4.9 yards per carry and has conceded 8 rushing TDs this season.
This plays right into the Ravens hands, as they look to establish a ground game early and often to set the tone.
Some trends to note. Redskins are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Redskins are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Washington is going to struggle here. This is a spot where the Ravens could have easily been 6 or 6.5 point favorites. At 3.5, this is a nice price for Baltimore.
Chip Chirimbes
Patriots vs. Browns
Play:Browns +10½
Here it is the week Roger Goodell has been longing for, the return of Tom Brady. So the winless Browns (0-4) will be hosting a Patriots squad that was shutout (16-0) at home by division rival Buffalo last week with Bill Belichick returning to the site of his first NFL head coaching job. With rookie Cody Kessler making his second career start the Pats should have the advantage here. My problem with New England is there attitude here as they often play down to their competition on the road. line looks low.
Marc Lawrence
Bears vs. Colts
Play: Bears +5
Edges - Bears: Head coach John Fox is 12-3-1 ATS away following a win as an underdog. Colts: 1-4 ATS as home favorites versus NFC North opponents. With Indy likely to have “sea legs” following its return home with no rest after its lengthy trip to London last week, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Scott Rickenbach
Jets vs. Steelers
Play: Jets +7½
The Jets have done themselves in with turnovers the past two weeks. The Steelers are coming off of a huge win versus Kansas City last week. That sets this one up perfectly. The Jets are expected to have RB Matt Forte ready to go for this one and I look for them to pound away on the ground and let the defense do the rest. The Jets have been solid defensively as they are allowing an average of 355.2 yards per game. By comparison, the Steelers are allowing an average of 394.8 yards per game. Pittsburgh has covered just 4 of the last 12 times they were favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Steelers are in that range this week and with the Jets off back to back frustrating losses and Pittsburgh off of a win by a 29 point margin, this one sets up perfectly to grab the "ugly dog" that very few will want. Remember, this is the NFL where "on any given Sunday" and the Jets truly are going to be under-estimated here by the Steelers and under-valued by the betting markets. Grab the big dog in this one.
Jack Jones
Tennessee Titans +3.5
The Tennessee Titans are just 1-3 this season, but they've had a chance to win every game they have played. I believe this is a very evenly-matched game against the Miami Dolphins this week, so getting 3.5 points here is a nice value.
The Titans had a 10-0 lead on the Vikings in Week 1 before giving up two defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half to lose 16-25. They went on the road and beat the Lions 16-15 in Week 2. They had a chance to tie it late and had a TD overturned in the closing seconds in a 10-17 loss to the Raiders. And they had their chances again last week in a 20-27 road loss to the Texans.
The Dolphins' only win this season came in overtime at home against the winless Cleveland Browns by a final of 30-24. They shouldn't have even won that game as the Browns botched a field goal attempt in the closing seconds that would have won it for them.
You would have expected the Dolphins to show something last week, but instead they fell flat in a 7-22 road loss at Cincinnati. They only managed 222 yards of offense in that game and were outgained by the Bengals by 140 yards in the loss.
I believe the Titans are an average team, while the Dolphins are well below-average. That shows up in the stats as the Titans rank 15th in yardage differential, only getting outgained by 2.8 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins rank 30th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 72.0 yards per game on the season.
The problem for the Dolphins is they have no running game, so they are losing the time of possession battle horribly. They are only averaging 78 rushing yards per game and just under 25 possession minutes per contest. The Titans are averaging 127 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry with 31 possession minutes on average.
Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. Miami is 13-42-1 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Mike Lundin
Texans vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings -6½
The Minnesota Vikings are still undefeated, despite losing QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson to injuries. They're on an absolutely insane ATS run over the last couple of years and 4-0 ATS on the season. The bookmakers and the betting public will surely catch up sooner or later, but I like the Vikings to cover a touchdown here against the Houston Texans. Both teams rely on a solid D to bring home the wins, but the Texans are in trouble now with defensive end J.J. Watt (back) out for the season. They're off a 27-10 home victory against Tennessee but lost its lone road game for the season in Week 3, a 27-0 shutout at New England.
Sam Bradford is doing a decent job under center for Minnesota with four TD passes and no picks while Houston's Brock Osweiler has passed for five TDs but also been picked off six times. That won't cut it here against a Vikings D that has allowed just 12.5 points per game on the season and the team has a league-best plus-10 in turnover margin.
John Ryan
Patriots vs. Browns
Play:Browns +10½
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 125-67 since 1983 good for 65.1% winners and made 51.3 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record. Another proven system supports this play posting a 69-33 since 1983 good for 67.6% winners and made 32.7 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New England is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland at home is 4-2 against the spread versus New England since 1992. Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Patriots are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Home team is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings head-to-head.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Cleveland has hardly been a pushover for the Patriots, winning in a rout at home in 2010 and losing on a last-minute touchdown at Foxborough in 2013. Kessler rallied the Browns from a double-digit deficit for the second straight week, only to see Cleveland failed to protect a three-point fourth-quarter edge in a 31-20 loss to Washington. Browns WR Terrelle Pryor, a converted quarterback, has 13 receptions and a touchdown over the past two games. The Browns have shown they play UP to their competition for most of the game. Take the many points with the Cleveland Browns.
Bill Biles
Rams/Bills Under 39.5
Both these teams are hitting there stride defensively and dont have high powered offenses. I see this as a possession type game where field position and defense rises to the top. This will be a very low scoring game and expect a lot of punts and Field goals.
Alex Smart
Eagles vs. Lions
Play: Eagles -3
The Eagles undefeated at 3-0 on the season are well rested and prepared to take on a horrid looking Detroit Lions side that has lost three straight, and that humiliated them 45-14 last year in a Thanks Giving Day battle. Now with revenge on board, I expect Phillys gridiron crew get a win and cover and add a posositve number to their 22-6 SU record following their bye week.From a league wide NFL perspective: Home teams like the Lions - off 2 consecutive road losses have failed to cover 38 of the L/51 times for a lowly 25% conversion rate ATS.
Jimmy Boyd
Chargers/Raiders Over 51
The books have set a high mark, but I don’t think it’s high enough. I’ll take my chances on these two teams combining for more than 50 points on Sunday.
The Raiders are very fortunate to be 3-1. All 3 of their wins have come by 7-points or less and two of those were by a single point. What’s allowed them to be successful is their offense. Oakland comes 5th in rushing (126.8 ypg) and 9th in passing (265.5 ypg).
Oakland has scored 28 or more points in 3 of their 4 games. The only exception coming on the road against an underrated Titans defense. Moving the ball against the Chargers shouldn’t be a problem. The only team San Diego has held under 26 points is the Jaguars.
The key here is the Chargers have been really good against the run. In fact, they rank 7th in the league, allowing only 82.0 ypg (yet to allow 100 yards). That’s going to keep Oakland from grinding out drives and force them to throw early an often. A perfect recipe for a high-scoring game.
As for the Raiders defense, it has been about as bad as it gets through 4 games. Which is why it’s so surprising to see them at 3-1. Oakland ranks 31st against the run (134.5 ypg) and dead last versus the pass (325.5 ypg). Even the Titans (393 yards) and Ravens (412 yards) were able to get their struggling offenses going against this stop unit.
The Chargers are more than capable of exploiting Oakland’s stop unit. Especially through the air. Philip Rivers has San Diego’s pass attack ranked 8th in the league at 265.8 ypg.
All signs point to a shootout between Rivers and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Look for both offenses to rack up big plays down the field, which will lead to quick scores.
OVER is 13-4 in the Chargers last 17 games against teams allowing 260 or more passing yards/game. OVER is also 14-5 in the Raiders last 19 games versus teams who are completing 61% or more of their pass attempts. The OVER is 6-0 in San Diego’s 6 games under head coach Mike McCoy against teams allowing 6 or more yards/play.
Michael Alexander
Bengals vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys +2½
The Bengals come into this contest with the Cowboys after a dominant win over the Dolphins where they had a 19-8 first down and 362-222 yard edges. But even with all that dominance they only had 1 touchdown against a bad Miami defense, settling for 5 field goals. Cincinnati QB Dalton, who had a huge season last year, before being injured, hasn't been all that impressive this season as had only 3 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. The Cowboys come into this one riding the coat tails of their two rookies, QB Prescott (who has a record 132 passes with no interceptions), and RB Elliott (who has 140 and 138 rushing yards the L2 weeks). The Cowobys are 3-1 and have 3 straight covers. The Bengals are only 1-4-1 ATS in their L6 games. Now way to go other than with the home team.
ASA
Chicago +4.5
This is just a terrible spot for a bad team (Indy). The Colts were expected to be solid, basically because of their QB situation, but they are simply a poor team. Last week they played in London and lost to Jacksonville and for some reason Indy didn’t receive a bye this week. So long travel off a loss will be a big factor this week. Chicago, on the other hand, has some momentum as they beat Detroit last week and held the Lions to just 7 points. Speaking of defense, Chicago owns a huge edge on that side of the ball as they allow a full YPP less than the Colts (5.2 YPP allowed to 6.2). Going by the numbers, the Bears are actually better offensively as well averaging 6 YPP to 5.4 for Indy. We realize the Colts are better at the QB position but not much beyond that. Actually, we feel that Chicago is better off with Hoyer at QB right now rather than Cutler. Hoyer doesn’t turn the ball over as much as Cutler and has actually has been more efficient in his 2 starts with 4 TD’s and 0 interceptions. He should be able to move the ball against this Indianapolis defense. These teams have one common opponent in the Detroit Lions. The Bears beat the Lions 17-15 and outgained them by 145 yards. The Colts lost at home to the Lions 39-35 and the yardage was dead even. Both teams come into the game with 1-3 records but Chicago is showing some life, has the better defense, and they are getting points.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Philadelphia can change momentum in a hurry. They take their shots, moving the ball in the air whenever needed, and Philadelphia can always turn it around with excellent play - from Carson Wentz in particular. Wentz has been lights out with 256/game in the air - the DBs of the Lions aren't going to be much to concern about ?. Detroit has not been particularly effective with running the ball. They don't keep the chains moving with any semblance of a ground game - and too often don't finish their drives. Theo Riddick has stalled with only 3.1 ypa - this has been an ongoing problem with Detroit. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and coming off a BYE we'll grab them here on Sunday