Matt Fargo
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: New York Jets +7.5
The Jets have not exactly gotten off to the start they had hoped for as they are 1-3 following their second straight loss at home against Seattle last week. New York has its season on the line especially with a game at Arizona next Monday night so we can expect to see a pretty big effort here. The Steelers meanwhile bounced back from their blowout loss against the Eagles as they did the same to the Chiefs last week even though they won the yardage battle by just 79 total yards. Because of the recent results, this line has gone through the roof and is now over a touchdown. These teams match up better than most think as New York can take advantage of making some big plays downfield. The Jets issue has been turnovers and they actually fall into a contrarian situation based on that. We play on road teams that are forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 111-63 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 8-17 ATS against teams that are getting outscored by six or more ppg on the season while the Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record.
Brandon Shively
Washington vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
I am going to advise a play on the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday. I issued a play last Sunday on the Ravens also and it appeared they had the late cover before the Raiders marched right back down the field for a quick score. While the Ravens lost last week, they outgained the Raiders by 151 yards. The Ravens also outgained the Bills in Week 1 at home by 148 yards. Dating back to last year, the Ravens have outgained 9 of their last 12 opponents. Baltimore has a lot of healthy bodies on both sides of the ball that they didn’t have last year and I think there is some value here with a fairly small spread at home.
The Redskins defense has been terrible this season. They are coming off two wins but got outgained by 79 yards last week vs the Browns and by 54 yards against the Giants. They are giving up 4.9 yards a carry ranked 31st and have given up an NFL worst 8 rushing TD’s already.
This is a spot where the Ravens are being undervalued as I have them as a -6 or a -6.5 point favorite and they should be able to win this game by a touchdown or more.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati vs. Dallas
Pick: Cincinnati
The Cowboys suffered a tough 20-19 loss in Week 1 at home against the Giants but this Romo-less team has stormed back to win three straight behind rookie QB Dak Prescott. The Miss St rookie may have just three TD passes after four games but he’s completing 67.9% and has yet to throw an interception in 131 attempts (owns a QB rating of 98.5). Fellow rookie, Ezekiel Elliott of Ohio St, has turned into a ‘beast.’ He had just 51 rushing yards (2.6 YPC) in the loss to the Giants but he has 361 yards the last three games (140 and 138, the last two).
The Bengals check in at 2-2, after winning easily at home 22-7 over the Dolphins in a Week 4 Thursday game. The Cincy D hl;d Miami to 224 total yards (74 came on a TD pass) and just eight FDs. The Bengals sure need that win, as the Ravens and Steelers have both opened 3-1. QB Andy Dalton leads the AFC with 1,234 passing yards (ranks third in the NFL overall) but Cincinnati’s running game is averaging only 80.8 YPG on 3.1 YPC. The Bengals have scored 12 times on 13 red zone possessions but EIGHT of those scores have been FGs!
Romo remains sidelined for Dallas (maybe not a bad thing) but it sure doesn’t help that Dez Bryant is listed as doubtful. Left tackle Tyron Smith (back) is likely to play but top OL reserve Chaz Green (foot) is listed as questionable and left guard La'el Collins (toe) has been placed on IR. CB Orlando Scandrick (hamstrings), like Bryant, is listed as doubtful. That’s a lot of key players missing for Dallas up against a team which has made FIVE straight playoff appearances (note: Dallas has one playoff appearance the last five seasons). Dallas had lost EIGHT of its previous nine home games before the team's 31-17 Week 3 win over the Bears (since the beginning of the 2015 season), while the Bengals are 9-1 ATS on the road over that same span. This just in. The Bengals are NOT the Bears.
Big Al
Texas vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
It's ironic to think that the Blue Jays almost didn't make it into the post-season at all right now. That's because the team that needed to win its last games of the regular season to make it in as a Wild Card, and then took 11 innings to win a one-game playoff has looked like the most dominating so far in the Division Series. The Jays went into Arlington and simply annihilated the team with the best record in the League - not to mention the best home record as well (53-28). Over the course of games one and two, the Blue Jays out-scored the Rangers by a ridiculous total of 15-4 thanks to a 10-1 rout in game one against Rangers' ace, Cole Hamels. Nobody would call tonight's starter, RH Colby Lewis an ace, or anything close to it, but the Rangers are down to relying on the 36-year-old journeyman tonight in this do-or-die situation while the Jays will turn to one of the AL's best in ERA-leader and 15-game winner Aaron Sanchez. It will be another raucous crowd at the Rogers Centre, and to say that Texas has its work cut out for it tonight would be a huge understatement.
Will Rogers
Texas vs. Toronto
Pick: Under
The Texas Rangers not only had the AL’s best overall record in 2016 (95-67) but the team’s moneyline mark of plus-$2932 was was almost double that of the Baltimore Orioles (plus-$1611), who had MLB’s second-best moneyline record. However, the Blue Jays have taken a 2-0 lead in this ALDS matchup by winning each of the first two games in Texas, 10-1 and 5-3. The Rangers now face the daunting task of winning three straight games, in order to keep their season alive. I guess they can be buoyed by the fact that in last year’s ALDS matchup, Toronto did just that to Texas, losing the first two games at Rogers Centre but then winning three in a row, to advance to the ALCS.
I’m not sure Texas can match that feat but I do expect Colby Lewis to give Texas a chance, by pitching well. He was limited to just 19 starts this season due to injury but he pitched much better on the road, than at home. Lewis’ home ERA was 4.60 but on the road he allowed just 40 hits over 55 2/3 innings, posting a 2.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. What’s more, Lewis pitched well against the Jays both times he faced them this season and he's got a 2.38 ERA in nine career playoff appearances, eight of them starts. As for Toronto's Sanchez, he had a terrific season, as Toronto was careful about managing his workload. He finished 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts plus let’s also note that he made nine relief appearances in last year's playoffs and that he didn't allow a single earned run.
Bob Balfe
Colts -4.5
Chicago got themselves a big win at home against Detroit which when you look at all the injuries was very impressive. Andrew Luck is not going to make the same mistakes as Stafford did to keep this team in the football game. I don’t remember seeing a football team with as many injuries as Chicago has this early in the football season. This team can barely field a team. Indianapolis is in a must win situation and on this turf should get a big victory today.
Mark Franco
Vikings -6½
The undefeated Minnesota Vikings host the Houston Texans on Sunday in a matchup of surprising first-place teams. Both clubs have been wracked with injuries early in the season but continue to find ways to win and remain atop their respective divisions.
Minnesota has retooled its offense after losing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson to injuries, but an outstanding defense continues to carry the team. Houston also has relied on its tough defense but has lost a key part of that unit with defensive end J.J. Watt (back) out for the season. The Texans have been tough at home, but their only previous road game was a disaster as they were crushed 27-0 at New England in Week 3. The Vikings have won all three of the previous meetings, most recently in 2012.
Quarterback Brock Osweiler hasn’t developed much of a rapport with star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has made only 17 catches through four games, but rookie Will Fuller has made a splash as he recorded a touchdown reception and a punt-return score last week. Lamar Miller is off to a solid start with his new team but will have a tough matchup against a Vikings defense that has not allowed more than 105 rushing yards this season.
Minnesota is a league-best plus-10 in turnover margin, as the defense has been dominant and quarterback Sam Bradford has taken care of the ball. Bradford finally got some help from the ground game in Monday’s 24-10 win over the New York Giants, as the Vikings went over 100 yards rushing for the first time this season while Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata each scored. The defense, which ranks seventh in total defense and second in scoring defense, has forced at least two turnovers in every game and has recorded three takeaways in three of Minnesota's four contests.
Texans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 5. Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Steelers -7
The New York Jets' already suspect secondary will have to contend with the combination of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown without cornerback Darrelle Revis as they look to snap a two-game skid on Sunday at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Revis, part of a defensive backfield which has already allowed seven pass plays of over 40 yards, will miss the game with a strained hamstring, leaving Brown and the Steelers -- riding a six-game home winning streak -- licking their chops.
Pittsburgh rebounded from a deflating loss at Philadelphia by embarrassing Kansas City last week 43-14 as Le'Veon Bell returned to the lineup after serving a three-game suspension and put up a combined 176 all-purpose yards. The Jets continue in the midst of a brutal early schedule and have received no help from veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown nine interceptions the past two games, both losses. New York may also be without one of Fitzpatrick's top targets, Eric Decker, who could miss an extended time with a partial tear in his rotator cuff. Pittsburgh has dominated the series historically by going 9-1 at home and 17-5 overall and Roethlisberger has thrown 18 scoring passes and just one interception in the Steelers' current home winning streak.
The Jets enter Sunday's game with a minus-10 turnover rate while the Steelers are plus-1. Lay the points with Pittsburgh.
Redskins +4
The Washington Redskins have ignited their offense with 60 points during a modest two-game winning streak, but a road game against the league's top-ranked defense will provide a good litmus test for the reigning NFC East champions. Washington will vie for supremacy in the Battle of the Beltway on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, who limited Oakland's third-ranked offense to just 13 first downs and 261 total yards before sustaining their first loss of the season.
Kirk Cousins has thrown for five touchdowns over the last two games, including two of his three to tight end Jordan Reed in last week's 31-20 victory over Cleveland.
After shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants) and Terrelle Pryor (Cleveland), high-priced cornerback Josh Norman will be tasked with covering a man he called a teammate for the first two years of NFL career: former Carolina star Steve Smith (team-leading 24 receptions for 281 yards).
Although Terrance West rushed for a career-high 113 yards and a touchdown last week, he'll have competition in the Baltimore backfield as rookie Kenneth Dixon is expected to make his NFL debut on Sunday. Dixon, who scored the second-most touchdowns in NCAA history, has adjusted to wearing a brace after he sprained the MCL in his left knee during a preseason game on Aug. 27.
Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Ravens are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Eagles -3½
Quarterback Carson Wentz looks to continue his storybook start to his rookie season on Sunday when the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles visit the Detroit Lions. The second overall selection of the 2016 draft soared into the Eagles' early bye week, recording a 100-plus passer rating for the second time in three games after throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-3 romp over Pittsburgh on Sept. 25.
Wide receiver Jordan Matthews, who leads the team in catches (15), receiving yards (204) and touchdowns (two) this season, has found his stride with TDs in five of his last six games in addition to scoring in the previous encounter with Detroit. The passing game is expected to receive a boost from tight end Zach Ertz, who missed back-to-back contests while recovering from the rib displacement in his collarbone.
Offseason acquisition Marvin Jones, who has an NFL second-best 482 yards receiving, returned to practice on Thursday after being slowed by a foot injury. The health status of Eric Ebron is not as promising as the tight end is being plagued by ankle and knee injuries, leaving his availability in question for Sunday's game. Theo Riddick leads the Lions with 122 yards rushing, but his 3.1 average per carry leaves plenty to be desired. He will try to make hay against a Philadelphia defense that is yielding just 274.3 yards per contest, third-best in the NFL.
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5 and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October and are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Broncos -4½
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the biggest early-season surprises behind the league's most explosive offense, but they will step up in class when they visit the undefeated Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Falcons top the NFL in total offense, passing and points per game but the reigning Super Bowl champions counter with the league's second-ranked pass defense.
There were concerns about the health of Jones after he had one reception in a Week 3 win at New Orleans, but he put any concerns to rest by shredding Carolina's secondary for 12 receptions and 300 yards, including a 75-yard scoring grab. Ryan threw for a career-high 503 yards and had four scoring passes for Atlanta, which is the only team in the league averaging more than 400 yards (478.8) in total offense and is averaging a healthy 38.0 points per game -- over seven more than runner-up Philadelphia. The Falcons are getting strong production from the tandem of backfield Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, but the defense still has major issues, allowing 31 points and 419.3 yards per game.
Denver is off to a perfect start under 2015 seventh-round pick Siemian, who had to come out of last week's win at Tampa Bay with a left shoulder injury and was limited in Thursday's practice. Rookie Paxton Lynch, the No. 26 overall pick, acquitted himself well in relief in his season debut by finishing 14 of 24 for 170 yards and a touchdown. Running back C.J. Anderson has struggled in both of the past two games, averaging 2.6 yards per carry in each, but wideouts Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have picked up the slack by combining for 29 receptions and five touchdowns in the two contests. The Broncos top the league with 17 sacks, led by Von Miller's NFL-best 5.5 and Derek Wolfe's 4.0.
Falcons are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
Ross Benjamin
Dodgers @ Nationals
Play: Under
Since returning from the disabled list, Rich Hill has made 6 starts, and compiled an excellent 1.84 ERA in addition to a terrific 0.79 WHIP. Tanner Roark of the Nationals has been brilliant throughout his previous 10 starts, posting a superb 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP during that course of time. Roark is also 11-2 under the total this year in his starts against teams with a winning record.
At the time of this writing, the Dodgers are -115 and Washington is +105 on the money line. Washington is 23-8 (74.2%) under the total this season as an underdog of +100 or more. The Dodgers Rich Hill is 35-12 (74.5%) under the total in 47 career starts as a money line favorite of -110 or more.
Finally, Chris Guccione is slated to be today’s home plate umpire. He’s seen games go 53-34 (60.9%) under the past 3 season and 17-9 (65.4%) under this year when he’s behind the plate.
Scott Rickenbach
Dodgers at Nationals
Play: Dodogers
The Dodgers will have southpaw Rich Hill on the mound for this one. He hasn't started against the Nationals since 2009 so this is a big edge for Hill as the Washington lineup does not have a lot of familiarity with him. As for the Nats starter, Tanner Roark, he started against the Dodgers in June so the LA sticks have seen him recently. The Dodgers thrive against right-handed pitching and are 70-47 against righties on the year. The Nationals have not fared well as a small home dog (up to +125) as they are 2-4 this season and 7-13 the last 3 seasons combined. Also, with yesterday's home loss the Nats are 1-4 in playoff games in recent seasons and 3-7 long-term. The Dodgers are a stellar 28-16 in day games this season and this one is slated for first pitch at 4 PM as long as the rain moves out of the area by then. Hill came over from Oakland late in the season but the fact is that he's been a road warrior all season. The Dodgers left-hander is 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 ERA in road starts this year!
David Banks
Giants @ Packers
Pick: Packers -7
After starting 2-0, the Giants have suffered two straight defeats and now must travel to Lambeau Field for a Sunday night match-up with the Packers. New head coach Ben McAdoo is hopeful that playing at Lambeau will bring good karma. The last time the Giants played there, in 2012 in an NFC divisional playoff game, they won 37-20. In fact, New York has beaten Green Bay each of the last three times the two teams have met, but the last meeting was in November of 2013.
Fast forward and McAdoo does have the Giants defense playing much better and QB Eli Manning is still a force with which to be reckoned. The Giants ran into one of the NFL’s best defenses last week in Minnesota. Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr was held to just 23 yards on three catches. That will have to change if the Giants are to have success on Sunday night.
Green Bay will have the advantage of having an extra week of preparation. The Packers had their bye week last week. So far, the Packers have been far from impressive, but they are 2-1 with their only loss also to Minnesota. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been less than spectacular (617 passing yards, 7 TDs), but has done enough to win. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson is back after missing all of last season with a knee injury. Nelson has 17 receptions and four touchdowns already. The Packers play well at home and Lambeau Field will bring Green Bay a huge advantage on Sunday night.
Bob Balfe
Indians +120
One last chance for the Red Sox to save their season and who is on the mound, but good old Clay Buchholz. I don’t trust this guy and I never will. Cleveland is a better baseball team right now as the Red Sox just can hit the ball for some reason. I think we see a sweep today and there is no way Buchholz should be a big favorite like this.
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI -1.5 over Dallas
Rookie QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are off to a surprising 3-1 start, but none of the previous four games were against a team with a winning record. What’s more, Dallas is the only team in the NFL that seems to have a home field “disadvantage.” Not only are the Boys 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at Jerry’s World, they have also lost eight of their last nine games on this field straight up. Cinci continues to be a money-maker in non-playoff situations, covering 21 of their last 34 games overall and 17 of their last 23 against the NFC East. The Bengals are also 18-12 (60%) in their last 30 games as a road chalk of three points or less. Add it all up and we see no reason not to back the Bengals in a near pick’em spot.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in the Texans-Vikings game.
Minnesota has shutdown Aaron Rodgers (14 points), Cam Newton (10 points), and on Monday night Eli Manning (10 points), so it would follow that the Vikings defense should be able to bottle up Brock Osweiler in this meeting on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings have 8 straight opponents to 17-points or less, and they have played Under the total in 5 of their last 6 games dating back to last year, including each of their last 3.
The Texans are playing off their first Over of the season last Sunday, but have played 7 of their last 9 dating back to last season Under the posted price. That includes their only road game of this year, a 27-0 shutout loss at New England on September 22nd.
Don't see too many points being lit up on the U.S. Bank Stadium scoreboard today.
Texans-Vikings Under.
3* HOUSTON-MINNESOTA UNDER
Brad Wilton
Just don't see anyway you cannot back the 3-0 Eagles coming off their bye week against the 1-3 Lions at Ford Field this Sunday afternoon?
Last Thanksgiving the Lions demolished the Eagles, 45-14 in a game that seemed to seal the Chip Kelly era in Philly. Fast forward to this season and new coach Doug Pederson, and the Birds are sitting pretty at 3-0 under the guidance of their new rookie QB, Carson Wentz.
The Eagles don't beat themselves, so it's unlikely that the sloppy Lions are going to be able to make much noise here, as Detroit has not looked good at all in any of their last 3 games, and are just 2-5-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the 2012 season.
Philly's defense was able to hold the mighty Steelers to just 3 points, and they are allowing only 9 points per game.
I ask again, how can you not back the Eagles in this spot?
Lay the road chalk with Philadelphia this Sunday afternoon.
4* PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
My free NFL winner for Sunday is on the Los Angeles Rams over the Buffalo Bills, as this is going to be much easier than the line the books are prescribing.
Buffalo travels cross country after pulling off one of the biggest upsets in the young season, a 16-0 shutout in Foxborough, over the New England Patriots.
Now comes the hangover.
The Bills will face a tenacious Rams team that is 3-1 straight up and against the books through the first quarter of the season, and that will be looking ignite its offense after a bit of stagnancy.
This is the Rams' second home game of their homecoming season at Coliseum, and then they won't play at home again until November. They will want to win this one big.
Jeff Fisher is 7-1 against Buffalo as a head coach dating back to 1995, while his quarterback, Case Keenum, is 8-3 as an NFL starter over the last three seasons, despite boasting modest numbers. Running back Todd Gurley has a mere 216 yards in four games, as we've seen defenses loading up against him. Today he could match that total against the Bills' rushing defense, as I think Buffalo will be moving slow.
Take the home team in this one, as L.A. dominates on both sides of the ball.
4* RAMS