Alex Smart
Carolina at San Francisco
Play: Carolina -5½
Carolina had a horrible season last year, after going 17-2 the previous season and making it to the Super Bowl. Now in rebound mode, I expect a very focused and determined Panthers team to come out here swinging vs a rebuilding SF 49ers side that they crushed last season by a 46-27 count . Newton passed for 353 yards and four touchdowns in that tilt .
I know its not easy traveling from east to west in north American sports, but this is a special situation and solid proposition laying under TD with what my own power rankings suggest is the far superior side. Note: Panther QB Cam Newton , is considered healthy after off season surgery, and looked good in limited action in preseason play.
SF 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.SF is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC, 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings between the two teams and 1-8 ATS L/7 overall. Carolina is 7-0 L/7 SU/ATS against teams that won 4 or less games the previous season.
Dennis Macklin
New York at Buffalo
Play: Under 40½
This is a strange divisional battle between two teams that have pretty much acknowledged they are going to tank the season. The Jets will go with McCown and then Bryce Petty. The offense has done nothing the entire preseason other than 15 minutes of garbage time vs. the Giants. Tyrod is just off the concussion protocol and he'll be facing the Jet front seven which will be the best unit on the field for either team. Both teams will look to establish the run and not turn the ball over. Four of the last five in the series have gone under and this one has UNDER written all over it.
Jack Jones
Steelers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +9
The Cleveland Browns have been the laughing stock of the league for the last decade. But I like what management is doing now stockpiling draft picks over the past few seasons and setting themselves up for the future the right way. It will only be a year or two before this team is a serious contender.
The Browns went 1-15 SU & 3-12-1 ATS last year, so the betting public made a killing going against them. Oddsmakers couldn't set their lines high enough. Now this line of +9 is clearly inflated in Week 1 knowing that the public is only going to keep fading them. I think there is some serious line value on the Browns this week as a result.
Conversely, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a popular choice to win the Super Bowl in 2017. That perception only inflates the number a little more. I think the Steelers will be great, but asking them to go on the road in a division rivalry and win by double-digits just to cover the 9-point spread is asking too much.
Ben Roethlisbrger has some of the craziest home/road splits over the past three years. In 22 home games, he is 17-5 completing 68.2% of his passes with a 62-to-20 TD/INT ratio. In 26 road games over that same span, he is 15-11 completing 64.7% of his passes with a 25-to-24 TD/INT ratio.
Teams that won zero or one game the previous season have gone 67% ATS in Week 1 dating back to 1980. Also, underdogs of 8 or more points in Week 1 have gone 30-15 (67%) ATS since 1997. The Browns are one of three teams that fits this system in Week 1.
Marc Lawrence
Ravens vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -3
Edges - Bengals: 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS home in division game during December; and 4-0 ATS home openers versus division opponents… Ravens: 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS last five games here in this series… With the Bengals anxious to make amends for last year’s losing effort, we recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati.
Sean Murphy
Raiders vs. Titans
Play: Under 51
We’ve cashed plenty of tickets playing the ‘over’ in games involving the Raiders over the last couple of years but I won’t hesitate to switch gears as they travel to face the Titans in the 2017 opener.
These two teams are almost mirror images of one another heading into the season, hence the tiny pointspread separating them. While both offenses have a ton of upside, I’m not convinced we’ll see them explode right out of the gates.
I’m not sure that either defense gets enough credit. The Raiders ‘D’ in particular has been overshadowed by the flashy offense, which only gets flashier with the addition of RB Marshawn Lynch.
A lot of so-called experts have the Titans making the leap to the postseason this year but I say not so fast. This is a tough opening week matchup, and they know it. Look for the Tennessee defense to step up and turn a few heads, helping to keep this one ‘under’ the lofty total.
Vegas Butcher
OAK @ TEN -3
Here’s a very interesting line. The spread on this one opened at -1 OAK back in May when the lines for all the games first came out. It’s been systematically moving and has now settled at -3 TEN, a full 4-point swing. The fact that it’s settled on a key number of ‘3’ is also very important. So what to make of this? Well, the ‘talking heads’ on TV and Radio are all picking the Titans to win the division and to be one of the better teams in the league this year. But does ‘perception’ match ‘reality’? Possibly, though there does seem to be a lot of ‘noise’ in this line-move. Should you side with or against the ‘talking heads’ though? I’d almost always go against. In any case, this is a game where I’d only look towards what seems to be a pretty under-valued road team. Lean: OAK +3
ARZ @ DET +2.5
Home ‘doggie’ alert! Let me profess that very early in the season, home-underdogs are typically more valuable than later in the year. Simply, because typically the bookmakers, and the public, value teams early in the year based off what they’ve done last season. But this is the NFL, and teams undergo drastic changes from year to year. Even if we did look at last year, Arizona was a bottom-10 team in 2016 with a 7-8-1 record. Lions were also in the bottom-10 with a 9-7 record. Regardless, this is another game where the favorite is ‘perceived’ to be a significantly better opponent (by ~5.5 points on neutral field), though I’m not sure that’s the case. Lean: DET +2.5
ATL @ CHI +6
Now here’s a game where the favorite is NOT just ‘perceived’ to be a better team, but truly is a better team. The Falcons are (almost were) the Super Bowl Champs, while the Bears are in a rebuilding mode coming off a 3-13 record. Atlanta retained almost all of their guys from last year and drafted a pass-rusher in McKinley in the first round, resigned Trufant, their top CB, and is overall going to take another step up defensively. We know offensively this team is a juggernaut but their defensive improvements will have them take another step up as a team. Here was Bears’ draft this year:
Round 1: QB Trubisky – will be sitting half the season at least
Round 2: TE Adam Shaheen – takes a while for TE’s to develop so this guy’s a non-factor this season
Round 3: No pick. Traded away to move up 1 pick for Trubisky
Round 4: S Eddie Jackson. Coming off a broken leg in college last year.
Round 5: RB Tarik Cohen. 3rd down back.
The Bears lost Jeffery and Cutler, signed an aging Safety Quintin Demps (31 yrs), a poor player in Marcus Cooper, and a potential difference-maker in Amukamara. Of course, Amukamara is hurt and will miss this game. My point here is that Chicago did NOT do much to improve their team this season. Yes, they’re rebuilding for the future, but these teams are going in opposite-directions here. One is a major contender once again, while the other one is going to be really mediocre. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned that the Bears are integrating a new QB (Glennon), new WR’s (White / Wright), and are dealing with injuries to their O-line (Long). Typically you have to look towards backing the home dog early in the year, but this one is a major mismatch from my standpoint. Now that the line has shifted off -7, and is sitting at -6, I lean ATL. Lean: ATL -6
PIT @ CLE +9
Here’s an interesting scenario as we have a divisional game with a home team being an underdog of more than a TD. Remember, this is year 2 of Hue Jackson’s regime so you have to expect natural improvement. The O-line is elite and the run-game, along with a mobile QB in Kizer, could be very good. Throw in the fact that Roethlisberger really struggles on the road vs at home, and we could see the Browns hang in this one. Regardless, there’s strong value on the home team here. Lean: CLE +9
JAX @ HOU -5
This line moved from -4.5 to -5, though this is not a significant move since 5 is an irrelevant number. I know a lot of handicappers will use ‘motivation’ as a reason why the Texans will want to win this one, as they’ll be trying to bring something positive to the city after such a devastating tragedy. But I think Jags will be plenty motivated as well, especially after this weekend as their state will be engulfed in a similar scenario. In any case, I know HOU D against Bortles seems unfair, but how is Savage going to do against this greatly improved Jags D? Bouye was a top-5 CB last year, Calais Campbell is an absolute beast, and even signing Barry Church is significant. Jags ranked 11th defensively last year and I expect this team to be even better. Houston D vs Bortles or Jags D vs Savage. This should be a low scoring, defensive battle, and I have a hard time figuring out why this line is more than a FG. Lean: JAX +5
NYJ @ BUF -8
How awful do the Jets have to be to lay more than a TD @ Buffalo? The Bills are going to be a really bad team this year, yet they’re a heavy favorite in this one. Honestly, I simply don’t have a good feel for the Jets right now, as they’re starting so many young guys. I’d utilize a wait-and-see approach with them. If I had to make a pick in this one though I’d go….. Lean: NYJ +8
BAL @ CIN -3
I think this should be a good game. We have an improved Cincy offense going up against a potentially elite Baltimore D. One major issue is Cincy’s O-line, which was 26th last year in pass-protection. By all accounts this unit has gotten worse. That’s not a good combination against this Ravens D. On the other side, Cincy will be without Burfict and Adam Jones, two key defenders. I think there are enough edges in Baltimore’s favor though, and the price is right to potentially back them. Lean: BAL +3
PHI @ WAS +1
Another home-underdog and a divisional game to boot? Honestly, these types of games are ‘auto-bets’ more so than not this early in the year. I know Eagles are getting a lot of hype (gotta love all those ‘talking heads’) but this team finished behind Washington in the standings last year. Now all of a sudden they’re a road-favorite here? Wentz has really struggled in the 2nd half of the year, Philly has a number of new receivers they’re introducing this year, and the run-game is virtually a nil (Blount is terrible). I think Washington has a superior offense and they’re at home. Two factors that are appetizing for a home doggie. Oh, and in the preseason this line was -3 WAS. So there’s that as well. Lean: WAS +1
IND @ LAR -4.5
This line opened LAR +3 in the off-season. Of course Luck was slated to play back then. Now without him, the line shifted by 7.5 points. The move is justifiable of course, but the question is, is this terrible Rams team overvalued as a ‘favorite’ of more than a FG in this matchup? Let’s not forget that Goff is still a QB here, and he was absolutely awful last season. Sure he should improve, but people said the same thing about Bortles as well 😉 Second key factor is that Donald is out and he’s LA’s best player, period. He’s an absolute nightmare for opposing offenses, and without him, this Rams D is going to be greatly undermanned. I know Tolzien is starting for Indy and Vontae Davis is out at CB. Yet, I still don’t see how the Rams could be laying more than a FG. Lean: IND +4.5
SEA @ GB -3
This is the premier game of the weekend, as I could (so can everyone of course!) see both of these teams facing off in the NFC Championship game this year. To me the difference here is Seattle’s defense. They’re healthy, they’ve added Richardson, and they’re significantly better than Green Bay’s. I think offensively both teams are elite. We should see a great game but if I had to choose, I’d grab the points here. Lean: SEA +3
CAR @ SF +4.5
You snooze, you lose sometimes. This line was +6 SF earlier in the week, and is now down to +4.5. Still, it’s above 4, so there’s some solid value here. A Carolina team that was 6-10 last year being a road-favorite to open the season against an ‘unknown’ squad like SF is ‘fade material’. San Francisco is starting Hoyer, the 7th most efficient QB last season. Carlos Hyde has looked great this off-season, as he’s set to play well in his contract year. And of course bringing this offense together is one of the greatest offensive minds in the game, Kyle Shanahan. Defensively, San Fran has added some key pieces as well via the draft and will be getting a number of important players back healthy. I think we’ll see a competitive game here. Lean: SF +4.5
NYG @ DAL -4
One team is gaining a player they thought might sit (Zeke) while the other is very likely to be without their key guy (Beckham). These are two critical factors in this matchup. I think without Beckham this Giants offense is going to really struggle. Beckham is their one and only dynamic playmakers, as the rest of the supporting cast is average at best. Marshall is old, Shepard isn’t anything special, and Perkins is as ‘blah’ as it gets at RB. Besides, Eli Manning might be the most over-rated QB of all time. Sure he won 2 SuperBowls, but the guy is plain old mediocre (49 QBR last year…mediocre!). I think Dallas at home, in primetime, will simply overpower this Giants team over the course of the game. Lean: DAL -4
Rob Vinciletti
Oakland vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -3
The Titans should be even more improved after wining 9 games last year. They have home loss revenge on Oakland who is in a terrible system that plays against week 1 dogs that were bounced in the 1st round of the playoffs last year if the total is 37.5 or more. Game 1 home favorites that had worse record than their opponent last season are 32-10 ats. The Titans have covered 4 of 5 as a home favorite of 3 or less and the favorite in this series has covered 8 of 9. The Raiders though better last year are still just 4-18 in the eastern time zone. Remember the Titans today.
Dave Cokin
New York at Buffalo
Play: Over 39.5
I won’t get into the complexities of what I came up with on the math as far as this game goes. But in addition to figuring on that count, I’ll give you a little insight into market assessment. That’s a contributing factor for me in this game.
Long story short, there are some books considered to be “sharp”, and others that fall into the “square” perception category. I never play a game simply because sharp stores has a different number than square store. But I absolutely like it when a game I like fits as this one does.
Sharp store has the O/U on the Jets-Bills at 40.5. Square store has the game at 39.5. Note these numbers are as of 11:23PDT on Saturday night, so there might be some movement between now and game time. In any case, there’s some information to grasp right there. Additionally, this is game where the public is decidedly betting the Under.
Between the wagering info and the methodology I’m utilizing to make my O/U lines, I’ve got a couple check marks on the Over. I’ll therefore be on this clash between the lowly Jets and Bills to exceed the posted number.
Brandon Lee
Brewers vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -154
Chicago is worth a look here as the Cubs need a win here to avoid getting swept at home by the Brewers and having their lead in the NL Central trimmed to just 2 games. Chicago is an impressive 24-10 in their last 34 following a loss and are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record. More than anything the Cubs have the advantage on the mound with Kyle Hendricks facing off against Zach Davies. Hendricks has been dealing of late and owns a 2.21 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Davies owns a mere 3.88 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 29 starts and has a 4.50 ERA in career against the Cubs.
Mike Lundin
Eagles vs. Redskins
Play: Over 47½
The Washington Redskins will host the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon. Both teams hope to challenge for the NFC East title, and I think we'll see a high-paced, high-scoring game between the division rivals.
The Redskins were third in total yards behind the arm of Kirk Cousins last season. He's back under center and looking to build on a 4917 yards, 25 TD year. The Redskins problem is their defense which ranked 28th in yards allowed and 19th in points allowed last year.
Philadelphia has the weapons to take advantage. QB Carson Wentz was solid in his debut season and should be even better now with more experience. They've added running back LeGarrette Blount from the Patriots, and I expect big things from Philadelphia's offense. The Eagles' D is not good though and they were 28th in the league for points allowed last season.
Over is 8-1 in Eagles last nine vs. NFC East. Over is 7-1 in Redskins last eight vs. NFC East.
John Martin
Eagles vs. Redskins
Play: Over 47½
Two teams with two of the worst secondary's in the NFL square off Sunday when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Washington Redskins in an NFC East rivalry. That's not good news because both teams feature two of the better passing attacks in the league with plenty of weapons. Carson Wentz has some new toys in Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith and LeGarrette Blounte. He is going to have a big season. Kirk Cousins is one of the more underrated passes in the league. He has a new weapon in Terrelle Pryor, and he still has one of the best tight ends in the game in Jordan Reed. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Redskins and Eagles. They have combined for 47 or more points in five of those six meetings.
Vic Duke
Cardinals vs. Lions
Play: Cardinals -2
The Cardinals should be an "On a Mission" team this season after underachieving last year. They're healthy and should come out swinging. On the other hand, Detroit got outstated last year yet snuck in playoffs. Their ground game remains suspect and will face a hungry and fast Arizona defense today. Sure, QB Stafford signed a super big fat contract, but he may struggle here. Last time he faced Arizona in Detroit, 2015 when Arizona pummeled the Lions 42-17 resulting in Stafford's early benching for that one. Lions have been sluggish against NFC foes losing 5 straight. We'll grab the rejuvenated Cardinals -- out to prove their worth in the league today.
The Prop Specialists
Dallas -3 1st Half
Another fierecely contested game to be expected between these division rivals. Dallas gets a huge break with Elliott being allowed to play. The behaviour of first half play is relatively more run orientated than the second half; it's about higher percentage plays at short yardage to keep the chains moving. Teams manage their offenses more conservatively as they feel out their opponent and there is less impetus to change game pace because of potentially playing from behind under clock pressure.
We build quater by quarter 'game scripts' of expected margins of victory and total points, and our game script in this game shows the Cowboys outperfoming the market's expected 1H line of -3.
Harry Bondi
Oakland / Tennessee Over 50.5
We feel strongly that Oakland is going to be an “over” team again this year, so we’ll jump right in for Week 1 and call for a high scoring game in Tennessee. Despite winning 12 games last year, the Raiders defense was not very good and they didn’t do much to improve during the offseason. Meanwhile, the offense should be just as potent as last season when it averaged nearly 30 points per game with QB Derek Carr as the starter. Overall, Oakland has gone over the total in 20 of its last 31 games, 15 of its last 21 when listed as an underdog and 15 of its last 24 games against the AFC. Trend is your friend. Play the over today.
Neil TheGreek
Giants vs: Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -3.5
I don't really care about who the Giants went out and got at the weapon positions, because if you cannot protect Eli at least a few seconds, it won't matter that you got Brandon Marshall. And they have not addressed their offensive line, which will be their detriment. I also do not believe their defense will be able to live up to what they did last year. And I think the Cowboys have this game circled after losing both times last year. It means more to them then it does the Giants.