Neil The Greek
Giants vs: Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -3.5
I don't really care about who the Giants went out and got at the weapon positions, because if you cannot protect Eli at least a few seconds, it won't matter that you got Brandon Marshall. And they have not addressed their offensive line, which will be their detriment. I also do not believe their defense will be able to live up to what they did last year. And I think the Cowboys have this game circled after losing both times last year. It means more to them then it does the Giants.
Bob Balfe
Colts / Rams Over 41.5
The Colts have turned over a brand new defense. It is not often that a team dumps just about every single player on their defense. The Colts today only have 3 of their top 11 tacklers from last year. I don’t care how weak the Rams might be on offense we have to remember this is the NFL. You can’t just plug in guys on defense and expect to pitch shutouts. Jared Goff has improved tremendously from last year to now and I expect big things out of this offense. The Colts are in a tough spot without Andrew Luck, but they did upgrade the running game and Scott Tolzen has been with the #1 offense all preseason and dating back to last year. It’s a lot different when a QB goes down on Sunday and a backup has no time to get ready. This is a game in which I think we will know by halftime if we are winners or not.
Mark Franco
Eagles -1
The Washington Redskins came within an eyelash of securing a playoff berth last season before a pair of brutal losses at home to teams with little on the line left Kirk Cousins and company with plenty of questions for the offseason. Signed to his second franchise tag in as many years, Cousins looks to put the Redskins back on track Sunday when they open their season against the Philadelphia Eagles at FedEx Field.
Philadelphia finished in the NFC East cellar for the first time since 2012 as quarterback Carson Wentz went from the toast of eastern Pennsylvania to a rookie enduring growing pains. The Eagles gave Wentz some offseason firepower with the additions of former Pro Bowl selection Alshon Jeffery (Chicago), fellow free-agent wide receiver Torrey Smith (San Francisco) and running back LeGarrette Blount, who had a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns last season with New England.
Wentz set a franchise record with 379 completions last season, a total which ranked as the most by a rookie in NFL history.
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.
Cardinals -1
One of the league's most disappointing teams a year ago, the Arizona Cardinals look to erase the stench of a sub-.500 record in 2016 when they open the season at the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. Arizona won 34 games over a three-year span, capped by a 13-3 mark and NFC West title in 2015, before stumbling to a 7-8-1 mark last season.
The Cardinals have won seven in a row against the Lions and newly minted quarterback Matt Stafford, who became the league's highest-paid player when he signed a five-year, $135 million contract extension at the end of last month. Detroit made the playoffs last season with a 9-7 mark, but it lost its final three games after Stafford dislocated a finger on his throwing hand and bowed out meekly in a first-round playoff loss in Seattle.
Arians is looking for a bounce-back season from veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, who figures to throw often despite the presence of third-year running back David Johnson, the NFL leader with 20 touchdowns in 2016. Johnson set an NFL record with at least 100 yards from scrimmage in 15 straight games.
Bengals -3
The Cincinnati Bengals had a franchise-best string of five straight playoff appearances come to an end last season and are itching to get back to the top of the NFC North. The Baltimore Ravens, who visit the Bengals on Sunday in the season opener, are hoping to end a two-year playoff drought and have not won in Cincinnati since 2011.
The Ravens offense is just getting up to speed with quarterback Joe Flacco, who returned to practice on Sunday after missing the entire preseason and all of training camp recovering from a back injury.
Baltimore's struggles last season came down to injuries, especially along the offensive line. The Ravens have three new starters on the line heading into Week 1 and that is not a good sign.
Cincinnati took six of the last seven meetings. Bengals are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games in September. Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Rams -4
The Indianapolis Colts will be without their star quarterback when they open their season Sunday against the host Los Angeles Rams, who won't have their top defensive player on the field. Andrew Luck is on the shelf for the Colts with a sore right shoulder, while Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald is expected to miss Week 1 as he continues to hold out for a new contract.
Rams are getting to play against a quarterback that the Colts did not intend to start Week 1. They even traded for Jacoby Brissett on the eve of the season to push Tolzien for however long Andrew Luck is out. The Rams defense has some problems up front without Donald and Dominique Easley, but they still have a great set of linebackers and Trumaine Johnson against a Colts offense that is overmatched against any NFL defense without Luck.
The Colts have also looked discombobulated and lost in the preseason and the Rams have some spring in their step under new head coach Sean McVay.
Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 1. Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Giants +4.5
The news the Dallas Cowboys did not want to hear came down on Wednesday when an NFL arbiter upheld the six-game suspension of running back Ezekiel Elliott following accusations of domestic violence. However, Elliott got a one-week reprieve and will play in Sunday's season opener when the Cowboys host the NFC East rival New York Giants in prime time.
New York rebounded from three consecutive losing seasons to earn its first postseason berth since 2011, sparked by a defense that led the NFC with an average of 17.8 points allowed and ranked fourth in the league against the run.
Quarterback Eli Manning, entering his 14th season, threw for 26 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while reaching 4,000 yards for the sixth time despite a running game that averaged only 88.3 yards and produced a league-worst six rushing touchdowns. While second-year running back Paul Perkins takes over as the starter, the Giants added two pieces to the passing game by signing six-time Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and making rookie tight end Evan Engram their first-round draft pick. Beckham is coming off another huge season, scoring 10 times and hauling in a career-best 101 receptions.
Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC. Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Panthers at 49ers
Play: 49ers +5
The 49'ers will be a different team with new head coach Kyle Shanahan and new general manager John Lynch. Though it will take time and they're going to have their ups and downs, I like having the "ugly" but very hungry home dog in this match-up. Yes, the Niners are off of a dreadful season but they're going to be a different team than they were under coach Chip Kelly. Also, as bad as they've been, they've won their past two home openers by a combined score of 48 to 3. While I do expect the Panthers to bounce back off of their huge drop-off in results last season, this is likely a tough place for them to get the ball rolling. They lost the super bowl the last time they played in this stadium. Also, Carolina has ZERO covers the last seven times they've been a road favorite! Of course the personnel is different but don't underestimate the success that coach Shanahan had against the Panthers when he was on Atlanta's coaching staff. The Niners are going to be a tough team for Carolina to put away in this one and I expect it to ultimately be a game decided by 3 or 4 points at most.
Jimmy Moore
Redskins +1.5
Washington has covered the last 6 games in this series and the Eagles are just 1-6 in the first of back to back road games. Look for a big effort from Cousins here to show the doubters he is a good QB. Have to love a home divisional game in week 1.
Scott Spreitzer
New York vs. Buffalo
Play:New York +8.5
No argument from me when it comes to the Jets likely being the worst team in the NFL. But the Bills aren't much better and that's a lot of points to lay for a team that might not win six games this season. Buffalo is banged-up at QB, although it looks as though Tyrod Taylor (concussion) will start with Nathan Peterman backing him up. Taylor hasn't played since August 26 when he saw very little action, completing 1 of 3 passes for 1 yard. He finished a combined 9 of 21 passing for 54 yards, with no TDs and 2 INTs over his final two preseason games. Peterman isn't the better option and completed just 54% of his pass attempts in his first NFL preseason. The defense is nothing to write home about either, a weaker version than last year's unit that finished near the bottom of the league in run defense. We simply don't believe Buffalo is capable of getting enough separation to cover this big number.
Jeff Benton
My Sunday freebie is the Chicago Bears as the home dog against Atlanta.
Let's see if last year's Super Bowl meltdown of epic proportions has a residual effect now that the regular season is starting for the defending NFC champion Falcons.
You saw that it did have an effect on Thursday, when the Patriots were a bit full of themselves and got the asses handed to them on their home turf, and I do have a 1-11 against the spread stat that says the Falcons will also have some issues this afternoon at Soldier Field. The losing team in the Super Bowl from a season ago is 1-11 against the spread in their first road game the following season, and this stat is applicable to the Atlanta Falcons in this Week One situation.
Yes, Atlanta did cover 7 of their 8 road games last year, but 5 of those 8 road games saw them installed as the underdog, and the times they were favored, it wasn't by this amount.
Chicago is starting Mike Glennon under center, with high draft pick Mitch Trubisky the presumed "waiting in the wings" starter learning the ropes from the sidelines. On paper this looks like a mismatch, but that is why they play them on the field. Remember that last season the Bears did cover 4 of their 5 tries at home when getting points, so I am not ready yet to crown the Falcons with a "slam dunk" win and cover.
I would think that Atlanta owns the superior talent and will eventually rise up to win this game, but I don't think it is going to be as easy as many think.
Take the Bears plus the points.
2* CHICAGO
Eric Schroeder
The No. 1 candidate for supplanting the New England Patriots from their AFC perch is the Oakland Raiders. And you're telling me I can take them in their season-opener at plus the points, a few days after the Pats were humiliated in their home-opener? This is a gift.
My money is on Derek Carr, an MVP candidate last season who has thrown for more than 3,000 yards in each of his first three seasons. The strong-armed quarterback has 12 career fourth-quarter comebacks or game-winning drives, and if that's how we need to win this game, I have the right man for the job under center.
The Raiders lured running back Marshawn Lynch out of retirement to play for his hometown team, after sitting out last season, and if there were ever a day to consider Beast Mode on his best behavior, it's this game.
And with the most intangible I believe in this game - coaching - I'm siding with my guy Jack Del Rio. After finishing with a 12-4 record last season, many believe Del Rio will out-do himself against and already has Oakland in position to make a deep playoff run.
Make note, the Raiders have won each of the last two seasons in Nashville, while Mike Mularkey is winless in five games against the Raiders and in all three matchups against Del Rio.
Take the road pup and don't forget to buy the hook.
3* OAKLAND
Tommy Brunson
Going to count on "business as usual" when the Steelers open on the road against their division-rivals the Browns, and that is to say that Pittsburgh does most of the scoring and this game eventually holds Under the total.
These teams did play their January meeting last season Over the total, but 4 of the last 5, and 10 of the last 12 overall in the series have ended up holding Under the total. That does include the last 4 series meetings played in Cleveland.
With DeShone Kizer making his pro debut - sorry, but I cannot put stock in the Brownies 4-0 preseason record - it's hard to imagine Cleveland being able to post too many points on this Pittsburgh defense.
The Steelers are one of the more dangerous offensive teams in the NFL, but even if they post the bulk of the points, strong chance they will ease off the gas pedal since it is still September and we will see this game end up being the 11th Under in the past 13 series meetings.
Steelers and Browns Under for Week One.
2* PITTSBURGH-CLEVELAND UNDER
Joey Juice
My free play winner happens to be the Seahawks and the Packers to land Over the total.
A look into the numbers show that the over is 5-2 for Seattle’s last 7, and 7-0 in the Packers’ last 7. More importantly, the over is 6-2-1 for the last nine times these 2 teams faced off. This one is going over too!
Bet Over the posted total.
4* SEATTLE-GREEN BAY OVER
Chris Jordan
With the world on the Green Bay Packers (from what I gather), I'm using my free NFL pick this week on the Seattle Seahawks, simply to be contrarian.
The Seahawks defense is going to be outstanding today, as it will be looking to make a statement as one of the league's best this season. Aaron Rodgers will try to use his cadence and ability to manipulate the game at the line of scrimmage, but once he gets hit a few times and shows his vulnerability, this is going to be a problem as the game moves forward.
And while the Seattle defense is punishing Rodgers, you can expect to see Russell Wilson doing his thing on the other side of the ball, as he has more weapons around him than he's ever had. Wilson, who tossed a career-high five interceptions while the Pack romped to a 38-10 win last December, will be looking for redemption.
I'm telling you, the Seahawks will pressure Rodgers and force turnovers and Wilson will have a huge season-opener. Take the road pup.
2* SEAHAWKS
Jack Brayman
Call it the Brian Hoyer-Kyle Shanahan show in Frisco.
This combo, believe it or not, will be more dynamic than expected. It will certainly shine brighter than it did in Chicago. Look, when Hoyer played under the direction of Shanahan in Cleveland, he had excellent command of his offense. I think with the 10 guys Shanahan has surrounded Hoyer with, this offense will be better.
On the other hand, Carolina seems to struggle offensively on the road, I don't know what it is, but it managed to average just 16 points on the highway last season. And in its two trips to the west coast, Carolina allowed an average of 37 points per game.
Off shoulder surgery, something tells me we're going to see Cam Newton coming along cautiously, as he won't be pressed into carrying the load in this one. The Panthers will need some time with their moving parts that haven't played with one another.
The 49ers are going to be an improved team, as they've beefed up on defense, and have that chemistry with Hoyer and Shanahan.
Take the home pup.
4* 49ERS
Michael Alexander
Ravens vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -3
The Bengals are starting their season at home for the first time since 2009. That’s bad news for the Ravens, who have lost each of the last five seasons at Cincinnati with the last two coming by an average of 12.5 points. The Bengals have dominated the series winning seven of the last 10 overall meetings, including six of the past seven going 5-2 ATS. The gap might be even bigger this year with the Bengals looking like a playoff contender again while the Ravens continue to get worse. Baltimore has had difficulty winning on the road dropping 13 of its last 17 regular-season away games and have lost their last six road games. The Ravens have had to deal with a ton of injuries as well, plus the surprising retirement of center John Urschel and the horrendous quarterback play of Ryan Mallett.
Matt Fargo
Cardinals vs. Lions
Play: Cardinals -2
Typically, we stay off road favorites in this league but this is an exception with this matchup. Arizona is coming off a disappointing 7-8-1 season where it missed the playoffs despite what was a solid season on the stats chart. The Cardinals were one of only two teams in the NFL, New England being the other, that finished in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. It is rare for a team that closed No. 2 in total defense to finish with a losing record but five of their eight losses were by six points or less while four of seven wins were by double-digits. Of the 13 losing teams last season, Arizona had the best scoring differential at +56 net points. Plenty of people have already forgotten that Detroit was a playoff team a season ago as it finished 9-7 but it was a fraud. The Lions won seven of those nine games by four points or less or in overtime while they lost their last four games by a combined 59 points. We could have gotten Arizona as a dog when this line was first released but it is still under a field goal which makes it very playable. Arizona also falls into a solid situation where we play on road teams in Week One that finished with fewer wins than their opponent and those wins were between two and eight. This situation is 44-17-3 ATS (72.1 percent) since 2004. The Cardinals are a sleeper team in the NFC this season and they show it off in the opening week.
Tony Karpinski
Steelers vs. Browns
Play: Steelers -8½
Pittsburgh had some issues with Martavis Bryant's route-running and getting open, Bryant is back and looking like he is doing a much better job with underneath routes to find space. Which is where the 3rd year WR is going to find even more targets. An elite edge-rusher for Pittsburgh - Ryan Shazier led the team in both tackles for loss and 2nd on the team in total tackles last season, he will be too much to bypass. Pittsburgh has to smash the Browns, on the road, to show everyone Pittsburgh is stil the King of the North here.
And I find it at times, even very hard to even watch Cleveland - DeShone Kizer is in for a lot of learning here. Being able to react quickly in game scenarios, and new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will be key in trying to bounce back from last seasons dismal performance where they gave up 28+ppg.
Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.