Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 11th, 2016

Marco D'Angelo

Giants at Cowboys
Play: Under 49.5

If you look at this game and think about the Giants defense from last year and the fact that Tony Romo is back the knee jerk reaction would be to take the OVER here. That would be a mistake as this total in my opinion is too high. First off the Giants defense will be better this year (it would be tough for them to be any worse). But the defense is something they addressed in the offseason. Dallas will have their leader back in Tony Romo and they learned the hard way last year that they are in trouble without him so they need to make sure he doesn't get hurt again. The best way to do that is to run the football behind a good offensive line and a strong backfield. Don't put yourself in bad down and distance situations so that Romo isn't running for his life. They have a running game this year that can do that with Top Draft pick Ezekiel Elliot, Darrin McFadden and veteran Alfred Morris they picked up from Washington. By running the Football more this year Dallas becomes a better defensive team because the defense isn't on the field as long as it was last year. All of this points to this game going UNDER the inflated number. People remember what they saw last year but both of these teams are different and this total is too high. My projection is 45 points or less.

Sleepyj

Buffalo +3

I have some serious concerns for the Ravens in the first few games...My biggest concerns are with chemistry & injury....When you look at the "Play Makers" for this team you will notice they lost 8 of the 10 best players to season ending injuries....Yes 8 of the best players on this team ended up on the IR....Now LB Terrell Suggs was a opening game Achilles injury last year. He has had plenty of time to rehab his body over the course of a season and a half. Some of the naysayers thought Suggs lost a step going back two years ago. Now a full two years from those opinions off a Achilles tear worries me he might lose two steps. When it comes to sports injuries IMO in any sport, the Achilles tear is the hardest for a player to come back from. Especially at an older age..Throw Steve Smith Sr. right into this conversation...He goes down with the same injury last year, but his injury occurred Week 7 of last year. It's still only a 10 month layoff since he had his surgery....Smith at 38 years old might lose a step as well....Joe Flacco was another disaster for the Ravens last year..Flacco goes down in week 10 with a ACL/MCL tear...This was the first real injury he has acquired...How will he be off a short rehab?....How about RB Justin Forsett....He breaks his arm later in the year and he misses plenty of reps as well...DL Chris Canty went down in Week 9. TE Crockett Gilmore goes down in Week 10...Backup RB Lorenzo Taliaferro goes down in Week 3. All of these guys suffered severe season ending injuries....I can fgo on and on with this Ravens team with injuries....They led the league last year with season ending injuries to key players. I have major worries about the health progress physically and mentally. It's an easy statement to say the entire team is back !!...It's an easier argument to win stating just how hard it is to combine lack of chemisty and health physically and mentally to win in week 1...It's going to be very tough for the Ravens to get the ball rolling for a week or two..Quite possibly even 3 weeks...I'm one to throw teams in the trash early, but the Ravens have a good team. I think they have a rather easy schedule and if healthy they will rattle of a bunch of wins. I just feel it start week 2 or 3 this year..Chemistry is key and so is the mental part of 7 key starters coming back from the injuries they had. I could understand a basic foot injury or broken ribs, etc, etc, but we are talking about Achilles and ACL.MCl and Pectorals and back injuries...The worst kind in this sport...Some of these guys won't be ready for preseason...I almost forgot the WR Breshard Perriman...I was very high on him coming into last season..He played just a few games with the Ravens and he goes down..He is slated as a starter this year..So tell me how the Ravens sustain chemistry with the limited training camps and preseason games.....When I look at the Bills we have a team that played well last year...Tyrod Taylor gets his 2nd true look as a starter...No controversy to speak of...He is the #1 guy this year..He missed a few games, but played well last season...He had over 3,000 yards and his TD's to INT's were rather impressive. Another year in this system with the same exact lineup will help him some...Watkins, Woods, McCoy, karlos Williams, TE Charles Clay all lost a few games due to injury last year..I feel that they have enough time on the field and enough chemistry to come into Baltimore rather confident in week 1...I feel this offense is going to be tough to stop against any team..,,,Baltimore FWIW started last year healthy for the most part..Set Suggs aside...When the bulk of this team played together at home, they only won 2 home games. Week 7 through the end of the season was the injury epidemic with this team..So coming into this year with little reps worries me about the Ravens even at home....The Bills secondary might be a tad under-rated as well...How will Flacco and all the injury bug guys handle a Bills defense anchored by the secondary...Bills addressed some of the passing and rushing issues as well...How will two RB's from the Ravens feel coming in with a bunch of time off because of injury?....Will the Ravens offense be able to be a well oiled machine by week 1?....i highly doubt it...I'd much rather play on a team who has been much healthier and who has played together almost all season in 2015...Timing is key in the NFL...Week 1 we see a ton of rust from teams...Baltimore fits the mold of team that will be rusty for sure and they might even have to deal with the demons of season ending injuries mentally to start the year. Bills is an easy call here..Ravens won;t be ready..Wait a week or two for Baltimore..Value will be had with the Ravens for a few games before they get it together and the odds makers adjust for this team who is rather strong all around in my opinion....The -2.5 Baltimore line is begging for Ravens money right now..I doubt we see this line go past 3...If this was a week 4 or 5 game..I could understand...I think they see the same thing i do here...Ravens need time...Bills roll.

Dave Cokin

Chargers at Chiefs
Play: Chargers +7

I usually try to provide some analysis on the specific matchups I’m focusing on with these daily free plays. That won’t be the case here as I’m playing this game for other reasons.

For me, the opening week of the NFL regular season is about gauging public perception and taking advantage of what might well be an inflated spread. I think this game falls into the category. The Chiefs are widely perceived as a team that has a great chance to get back to the playoffs for a second straight year. The Chargers are widely considered to be the likely last-place team in the AFC West and one of the weakest entries in the league.

Each of those assessments have a good chance to be accurate. But in the opening week of the season, one of my favorite maneuvers is to zero in on divisional road dogs that were below .50o the prior season, particularly if they’re facing an opponent that was a playoff team.

The rationale here is that the favorite will be priced a little too high based on that public perception and that creates value on the underdog. Fact is, if you check out the results of Week One games that have fit this scenario, taking the points has been extremely profitable.

I don’t see this as a fluke trend with no rationale to support its success. Many times, the dog is a team that had pretty much everything go wrong the prior season while it’s often the opposite for the chalk. I believe there’s a case to be made that way on both counts here.

It’s not that I’m looking too build a case that San Diego is much better than people think, nor that the Chiefs are frauds. Hey, I think KC is a playoff possibility and I can’t see much chance the Chargers will be playing past Week 17. But right now both teams are 0-0 and full of optimism. And there are lots of points involved here. For me, this is more about value than game analysis. I see the spread being a reflection of what the public things about these two teams, and early on in the season, I have a tendency to want to try and buck that perception. That’s the case with this play, and I’m taking the full TD with the Chargers.

Art Aronson

Vikings vs. Titans
Play: Titans +2½

Setting the scene: Minnesota was 4-0 in the preseason but lost starting QB Teddy Bridgewater to injury, possibly for the entire season. The Vikings quickly went out and signed Sam Bradford on Saturday and while the move could prove to be shrewd over the coming months, we think he’ll have a hard time in adapting so quickly to a new offensive scheme. It’s a golden opportunity that Marcus Mariota and the Tennesse Titans will look to take advantage of.

The Vikes: Minnesota is coming off an 11-5 season and clearly the team is going for broke and looking to build off the successful showing. RB Adrian Peterson was always going to be the focal point anyways, so some feel that the drop off in talent between Bradford and Bridgewater is minimal. While Teddy’s ceiling was likely a lot higher than Sam’s, experts feel that the short term difference will be very marginal. Shaun Hill could get the start under center if Bradford isn’t deemed ready. Regardless, the QB issues are very real for Minnesota in Week 1.

The Titans: Mariota appeared in 12 games last year and threw for almost 3,000 yards would finish with 19 TD’s to ten INT’s. He’ll be joined by RB Derek Henry. The defense was an issue last year, but will be improved under Dick LeBeau.

The bottom line: Tennessee has the advantage at playing at home, along with a hyper-intelligent and talented QB who has a year under his belt. Minnesota on the other hand is clearly looking for an identity at the most important position. The TITANS can smell the blood in the water, consider grabbing the points.

Ricky Tran

Patriots vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -6

Both teams can play defense as evident when last season New England held 11 opponents to 20 points or less and did in the preseason held all 4 opponents to 22 points or less. The Cards held 10 opponents to 20 points or less last season and with Brady not playing this seems inevitable in this game.There is no question the Pats without Brady is not the machine it is with him. Carson Palmer was statistically the second best QB behind Brady last season, and the Cardinals ranked #1 overall on offense.

Dave Cokin

Patriots vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -6

I could write a lengthy piece building a case for the Cardinals in this game, but to be perfectly candid, this opinion is based solely on one huge factor. That, of course, is the absence of Tom Brady, who will be serving the first of his four-game suspension.

As far as my numbers are concerned, Brady is the single most important player in the entire NFL. Maybe I’m overrating his suspension, but the fact is I docked the Patriots a full seven points in making my line for this matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo might make me look foolish on Sunday night, but let’s just say I’m going to have to be convinced.

With Brady on the field, this game would be a tossup. I would have Arizona as just a one-point favorite playing host to the Patriots. But with the untested Garoppolo taking the snaps, I now make the Cardinals -8. So based on where the current line resides, it reads advantage Arizona.

The holdup on going ahead and releasing this as a personal service play is also based on one individual. That would be Bill Belichick. In addition to being a very dangerous guy to lay points to under almost any circumstances, if there’s one coach who can overcome such obvious adversity, Belichick is absolutely that coach.

There’s still a possibility this game ends up on my card, as I see this as an extraordinarily tough spot for Garoppolo to make his first NFL start. I’d be shocked if the Cardinals don’t try to pressure him into mistakes, and I’m not sold that the New England running backs are going to be able to do enough damage on a consistent basis to prevent Garoppolo from having too many obvious passing situations.

Alex Smart

Bucs vs. Falcons
Play: Bucs +3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers swept the Falcons in the season series last year. One was a 23-20 overtime affair, the other a 23-19 home victory . This week I expect a repeat performance behind the Bucs strong D and an offense lead up the ultra talented James Winston who threw for 4,042 yards with 22 touchdowns in 2015. Sorry Matt Ryan and company I'm betting the Falcons fail to cover for 9th straight time as favorites and fall to 1-9 ATS L/10 as home chalk.

Alex Smith

New York at Dallas
Play: Dallas -1

Sunday afternoon features a pair of NFC East foes as the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. The Cowboys will start the year with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott as veteran Tony Romo will be out for 10 weeks with a fracture in his back. The 4th round pick from Mississippi State put up stellar numbers during the preseason, completing 78% of his passes and scoring 7 total touchdowns with no interceptions thrown.

The Giants dealt with some struggles offensively during the preseason, scoring just 48 total points (12 ppg). However, the three key pieces of the offense weren't around much as quarterback Eli Manning and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz were rarely on the field together. On the flip side, the defense did look sharp throughout the preseason. Veteran Jason Pierre-Paul returns for what will be his first opening day start since 2014. Rookies Eli Apple and Darian Thompson along with newly acquired Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are expected to shore up a pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 299 ypg last season.

Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single possession including both meetings last year in which the teams split (NYG 2-0 ATS). The focus on this handicap has obviously been on Prescott who as mentioned did look good during the preseason. Many, including myself, have concerns how he’ll react against first-stringers and more complex defensive packages. The x-factor though are the weapons surrounding him. Prescott has the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines and has playmakers Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley at his disposal. It puts Prescott in a good position to manage the offense effectively, particularly against a Giants defense that while on paper looks improved but still grades out as league average. I’ll support the home team in this pick ‘em type price range.

Cal Sports

Browns at Eagles
Play: Under 42

In all 7 new head coaches will be roaming the sidelines and in the spring the only thing we knew for sure was that Houston and Denver would both have new QB’s. However, after RG III won the Cleveland job, Tom Brady’s suspension finally came to fruition plus injuries to Dallas’ Tony Romo and Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater which caused a trade of Philadelphia’s Sam Bradford there will most likely be 7 QB’s starting for a new team or for the first time. Cleveland and Philadelphia are the only teams to have both new HC’s and new starting QB’s.

Well, what does that mean? For me it means I’m looking at the UNDER for this game. The offensive skill players for the Browns rank collectively in the bottom 10% of the league while the Eagles will now go with a rookie, in Conner Wentz, who was planning to hold a clipboard this season and only completed 12 pre-season passes. By the way, that was 4th on the Eagles behind Chase Daniels (37 comp), Sam Bradford (32 comp) and McLeod Bethel-Thompson (16 comp). Expect both teams to run the ball with a conservative game plan as neither new head coach will want their new QB to commit turnovers in what both teams perceive as a very winnable game.

Sean Higgs

Vikings vs. Titans
Play: Under 41

We will be going UNDER the total between the Vikings and Titans. Pretty straight thinking here. Nothing exotic. We have the Vikings with a journey backup taking snaps. We will see a heavy dose of AP out of the backfield. For the Titans, we have a 2nd year QB and an offense that added another bruising RB in Murray. Again, a run heavy attack will eat up plenty of clock for us here. For the final nail in the scoring coffin, we have a top tier defense out of the Vikings and a very solid unit in Tennessee.

King Creole

Packers / Jaguars Under 48.5

Man's Best Friend is back at it with his UNDER of the Week. This one is courtesy of my Top Dog (Speedee). It'll be a short road trip for Speedee too, as he ventures up I-95 from South Florida to Jacksonville... when the Jags host the Raiders in Game One. Green Bay will be laying points on the road.

If it's Week One, and the road team is the 'chalk', there's only ONE way to go: NFL Week One non-division road favorites (GBay) have gone 5-26-1 O/U when the OU line is 41 > points... and a PERFECT 0-14 O/U when the OU line is > 44 points!

Green Bay's team scoring on offense DECLINED by a full TD per game last year (from 30 ppg to only 23 ppg). Will they rebound in 2016? Probably. But it will take some time for Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson to get in sync. And besides, the Packers went 3-9 O/U last year as favs of > 2 pts... and 1-6 O/U as favs of > 4 pts.

If the Jaguars were on the ROAD, we would be cautious in this one (56.3 combined PPG on the road last year). But Jacksonville HOME games have averaged only 40.5 combined PPG in the last four seasons. In addition, the Jaguars have gone 2-7 O/U at home in Games 1-4... 1-6 O/U as underdogs of +3 to +7 pts... and 2-6-1 O/U in Week One (32.9 PPG).

This is the third of our 3-game 'Trifecta' that ties ALL of our 'UNDERS' together. The Jags won 5 games last year while Green Bay won 11 games. 1-10 O/U since 2006: All GAME ONE'S in the NFL when one team won 5 games last year (GBay).

Robert Ferringo

San Diego at Kansas City
Play: Over 44.5

The last four meetings between these two teams have gone 'under'. And in most instances they have gone way 'under', including their 10-3 slop fest last December. But it is a new season, and I think that these familiar foes will be on the attack from the outset. San Diego's defense didn't look like it could stop anyone this preseason. They allowed at least 23 points in three of their four games and generally looked awful. I do, however, think they will get some support from the San Diego offense and Phil Rivers. He is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and with a healthy Keenan Allen and a revitalized Melvin Gordon, I think Rivers has a lot more to work with now than he did the end of last season. Kansas City's defense is a year older, and they are not at full strength going into the season. I think this is going to be a very competitive game with both teams in the 20s. I think that both offenses are further ahead than their counterparts, and I think that we see the 'under' streak snapped here.

Allen Eastman

New England (+6) over Arizona

Bill Belichick can win without Tom Brady. He is not an underdog often, but when he is Belichick is always a guy I look to get my money down on. He has gone 21-12 ATS as an underdog going all the way back to 2003.Belichick has also had a lot of success on the road against teams from the NFC. He is a solid 20-10 ATS in his last 30 games on the road against NFC teams, going all the way back to 2001. Arizona might be taking the Patriots lightly because they are facing New England at home and without their best player. But Belichick will have his defense ready to go, and he will try to grind this game down. I think he will be able to do it. Arizona is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. They did not look good this preseason, and I think that this is going to be a much closer game than people realize. Take the points and watch Belichick come up with another legendary game plan.

SPORTS WAGERS

Survivor Pick - Week 1

ARIZONA over New England

While it would be very easy to select the Seahawks this week, we are not in favor of playing the consensus favorite or the biggest favorite on the board to win because if they do lose, you end up going down with everyone else. We now get to root for Miami to knock out at least 35% of the participants (maybe more) and then hope for our quality selection to come through. Given the choice to go against Ryan Tannehill or Jimmy Garoppolo, we’ll choose the latter every time. Garoppolo has thrown 20 passes over the past two years and now he’s on the road to open the season.

The Cardinals easily took the NFC West with a 13-3 mark. With all due respect to Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians may be even be better. He’s at least Belichick’s equal. Now three seasons under Arians and the offense has never been better. Neither has the defense, which is one of the NFL’s best. There are no personnel changes of any note for the Cardinals, as the offensive scheme enters its fourth year. The Cardinals remain of the best balanced teams in the NFL. The Cards always play better at home and now they open up facing a quarterback who has never started an NFL game and who threw just one completion last year. A juggernaut losing the opener at home under those conditions is not an option.