Alatex Sports
Western Kentucky at Alabama
Play: Alabama -29.5
One of the themes in college football from last week was how bad the SEC looked. Seven losses in the opening weekend was the most ever for the conference, and even in victory, Florida and Tennessee struggled against lesser opponents. For a little over a quarter, it looked like Alabama was going to be part of the ugliness as they trailed USC 3-0 and failed to move the ball on offense. Three quarters later, it was apparent that Alabama was the class of the SEC and the nation after the 52-6 whipping of the Trojans.
Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts’ entry into the game was the turning point for the Alabama offense, even though he lost a fumble on his first collegiate play. Hurts tossed two touchdowns and ran for two more as the Tide piled up over 400 yards of offense in the final three quarters.
On defense, after allowing a USC field goal on their first possession, the Tide completely shut down the USC offense. The Trojans seemingly faced a 3rd and 13 on every possession and only converted 4-of-20 attempts on 3rd and 4th downs. The USC offensive line was total overmatched by the Bama defensive line whether trying to open holes for the running game or protect the passer on passing plays.
Western Kentucky is also coming off an impressive performance in Week 1; a 46-14 whipping of Rice. New quarterback Mike White threw for 517 yards and three touchdowns in his debut and the offense piled up 649 yards against the overmatched Owls defense. The Hilltoppers were barely impeded last week, but that will change drastically this week.
I actually expect Western Kentucky to have a little bit of success on offense in this game, but that doesn’t mean they are going to be able to score much against the Alabama defense. The class difference is just too much for them to overcome as they will be overmatched on the line of scrimmage and at the skill positions. Keep in mind that they managed 14 points against Vanderbilt and 20 points against LSU last year as they went on to win 12 games against just two losses and averaged 44 points per game.
Defensively the Hilltoppers will have a very hard time stopping the Alabama running game. They allowed 48 points to LSU last year and 497 total yards of offense. They even allowed 597 yards to South Florida in their bowl win against the Bulls. This is a defense that returns just four starters and will be facing an Alabama offense looking to work on its game. Nick Saban will not be interested in taking it easy; he is trying to get his relatively new offense ready for the challenges of the SEC, so I don’t expect him to tell Lane Kiffin to lay off the gas when they get a big lead.
Andrew Lange
California at San Diego St
Play: Under 62
Following its 51-31 win over Hawaii in Australia, the Cal Golden Bears will have had over two weeks to prepare for a tough trip to San Diego State. The Aztecs don't get to host many power conference teams (34-30 loss vs. Oregon State in 2013) and will have their sights set on avenging last year's 35-7 loss to Cal in Berkeley.
Despite a slew of defections on offense, Cal managed 630 yards on 89 plays (7.0 ypp) against the Rainbow Warriors. Texas Tech transfer quarterback Davis Webb looks to be an ideal fit as he hung 441 yards and four touchdowns. But for such a young offense, this is a massive step up in class as San Diego State's defense grades out as the best in the Mountain West and among the top 20 nationally.
Cal obviously played in a lot of high scoring games last season but against more moderate paced and or pro style offenses, the outcomes were far more traditional: 30-24 win at Washington, 30-24 loss at Utah, 27-21 loss vs. USC, and a 35-22 loss at Stanford. You can also add to that group their 35-7 win over San Diego State. The game featured a relatively modest 136 plays and while there was 810 combined yards, that still equates to around 55 points (the total closed 59).
Another interesting angle is San Diego State's offense. In 2014 the Aztecs averaged 394.5 ypg, 5.92 ypp, and 25.0 ppg. In 2015's breakout 11-win campaign, the Aztecs averaged 375.3 ypg, 5.67 ypp, and 32.1 ppg. The team's strength of schedule both years was nearly identical but the difference and main cause of over a touchdown scoring improvement was a nation-leading +22 turnover margin. Good defenses force turnovers but those numbers simply can't be duplicated. That's not to say San Diego State's offense isn't capable, but I expect to see it rank in the middle of the pack in the Mountain West in terms of yardage production. And while Cal doesn't possess much in the way of a stop unit, they do have speed and won't have to gameplan as much for an SDSU offense that prefers to run the football right at teams and control the clock.
I see Cal being able to put up more resistance that its reputation suggests and San Diego State to stick to ground per usual. Value on the under.
Drew Martin
Middle Tennessee St at Vanderbilt
Play: Middle Tennessee St +4.5
Middle Tennessee State offensive coordinator Tony Franklin and Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason will both square off for the first time since 2013 when Franklin was the OC at California and Mason the DC at Stanford. Saturday’s game is also a rematch from last year’s close fought defensive struggle that Vandy won 17-13 in Murfreesboro. This year’s battle has a couple key differences that should sway the outcome in the Blue Raiders favor.
Middle’s offense is led by quarterback Brent Stockstill who is the reigning C-USA Freshman of the Year. Although he did not perform well in clutch situations in last year’s game he did manage to put up 286 passing yards against a very stout SEC defense. The Blue Raiders did have difficulty running the football (34 yards) and pushing inside of the red zone (3 trips) and it resulted in only 13 points. In Vanderbilt’s loss to South Carolina last week, Vandy allowed only 308 yards to what looks to be one of the worst offenses in the SEC. You wouldn’t know it by the names of their jerseys, but MTSU which projects to be one of the best offenses in C-USA has far more ability to move the football, especially with Stockstill having a full year under his belt. Note that Stockstill broke Logan Kilgore’s consecutive completion record in the second quarter last week. Kilgore’s record was 19, and Stockstill completed 22 straight passes. The Murfreesboro native finished 30-of-36 for 329 yards and five touchdowns.
MTSU’s defense is starting three new linebackers and two new safeties though looked solid in Week 1’s 55-0 shutout of Alabama A&M. They held Vandy to 17 in last year’s loss and should once again be able to play straight up against a Commodores offense that is simply not built to win games by margin. Take the points.
Wunderdog
Buffalo @ Baltimore
Pick: Under 44.5
It was hard to watch the Ravens' defense fall further than it has in recent memory last year. The once staple of the team, the defense, that allowed less than 20 points per game in eight of nine years hit rock bottom in 2015, allowing 25.1 points per gaeme. It is certainly going to be dealt with as this organization has long prided itself on defense, and those numbers are unacceptable here. It all starts with pressure, something that did not happen last year. So what did they do? The Ravens had 49 sacks, forcing 22 turnovers in 2014, that has been addressed. Za'Darius Smith is getting better and they added strong pass rushers in the draft in Kamalei Correa and Matt Judon. They will go with a two-safety look moving Ladarius Cook from corner. Buffalo has played to an 11-21 O/U record the last two seasons. The Bills have a top five secondary in the league, which is the strongest unit on the team, and Baltimore has trouble running the ball, so they should be able to limit the Ravens offense. The Bills right side of the line has been the disaster for the offense and keeps it from being a lot better. Overall, this game figures to be played between the 20s. And with that said, make the play on the UNDER.
Nelly
Akron + over Wisconsin
The hype surrounding last week's opener at Lambeau Field was consuming for the Badgers and it will be tough to match that energy even for the home opener. The Badgers played great but still nearly gave the game away and it will be a difficult follow-up week. Wisconsin blasted Miami from the MAC in the home opener last season but the Zips were a bowl winner last year and a team that beat current Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst's Pittsburgh team in 2014. Akron did what it needed to do last week to beat VMI with Thomas Woodson throwing six touchdown passes. The big win for the Badgers hid shaky quarterback play behind Bart Houston and the Wisconsin secondary will be tested this week with a much different offense in what was likely a distraction filled week. Paul Chryst is just 6-8 ATS the past two seasons as a home favorite and Akron averaged over 28 pass attempts per game last season and had 38 attempts last week with Wisconsin going 1-2 ATS vs. teams that had more than 18 completions against them last season. Akron had three S/U wins as an underdog last season and the Zips will be up for this opportunity against a potentially flat squad that is greatly over ranked at #10.
Red Dog Sports
Norfolk State at Richmond
Play: Norfolk State +34.5
Richmond off a big win vs. Virginia. Both teams are located in Virginia. The Spiders may have a letdown after being the Cavaliers as +11 underdogs. NSU Spartans should be motivated playing in the state capitol vs. a solid team.
Doug Upstone
Ravens -3
Baltimore is coming of abysmal 5-11 campaign, devastated by injuries. Coach John Harbaugh is convinced his squad is in store for major rebound and his team is ready to resume competing for AFC North crown. Buffalo has a many positive attributes, but having two Ryan's as coaches is not necessarily at good development. Buffalo has very good talent at several spots on either side of the ball, but is flawed in other areas and because of how Rex Ryan coach's, a smarter coach like a Harbaugh tends to exploit what his teams do not do well. Even with last year's 0-2-1 ATS record as a non-division home favorite, the Baltimore is 23-14-2 ATS in that role and wins by 10.
Vikings -2.5
For all the promise of Teddy Bridgewater improving as still a young quarterback, very interesting to view the Vikings only went down a half point with the news to -2.5 at Tennessee and stayed there with the addition of Sam Bradford. This tells us oddsmakers believe the structure of the coach Mike Zimmer's team is built around running game and playing tremendous defense. Bradford's immediate impact figures to be minimal and he will be asked to make safe throws and not commit turnovers. Tennessee revamped its offense line after they allowed 54 sacks a year ago. Other than Dallas and Cincinnati, every other O-Line needs time to gel and the Titans going against this Vikes front seven, they sure look overmatched. With Tennessee 3-11-2 ATS at home the last couple years, Minnesota pounds out a victory.
Rob Vinciletti
Raiders vs. Saints
Play: Saints -2
The Raiders are 1-18 the last 19 games in the Eastern time zone and 4-18 in games where the total is 49 or more. They have lost 7 of the last 8 in non conference games. The Saints are 5-1 ats in the series and 4-1 at home with a road game up next. Drew Brees has won his last 7 starts vs Oakland. The Saints are much tougher at home. Look for them to win the opener. Play on the New Orleans.
Scott Spreitzer
Raiders vs. Saints
Play: Saints -1½
The Saints will be motivated to get out of the gates quickly. New Orleans has failed to make the postseason the last two years, starting slowly and never catching up. The Saints were 0-3 SU last September and 1-3 SU in September of 2014. The last time the Saints made it to the postseason, they finished 4-0 SU the first month of the season and Sean Peyton has all but stated it's a must to start fast in 2016. Drew Brees threw for 4,870 yards with 32 TDs last season and he put up a tremendous TD-INT ratio at home. Brees has a better offense surrounding him in 2016. The defense got an immediate upgrade simply by showing Rob Ryan the door and bringing in Dennis Allen. And while Allen's former team, the Oakland Raiders received some of the most hype at the betting window in Vegas over the summer, regarding futures and including win totals, the Saints have been flying under the radar. We do believe Brees & Co., will take advantage of the Raider defense and put week-1 in the win column.
Tony George
Bears vs. Texans
Play: Texans -5
I have no idea why the public is enamored with Chicago on Sunday. Houston was impressive in the Preseason and their defense will shred Chicago's Swiss Cheese OL. I have no doubts that the Bears are the 4th place team in their division this year, and John Fox will be on the hot seat by late this season folks. As much as things change in Chicago, at days end they remain the same.
Jay Cutler looked lost and he should have been in Week 3 of the NFLX with absolutely no pass protection from his OL all preseason. The Bears starters stacked up against KC's starters for 2 quarters and KC had a 20-3 halftime lead, and remember KC waxed the dog crap out of Houston in the Playoffs last year.
Cutler was 2-9 for 11 yards in that game and was not in good form despite his talents. While John Fox may be known as a head coach who in his second year at Carolina and at Denver had both teams in the Super Bowl, that is not going occur in 2016 with Da Bears. God forbid we have a JJ Watt sighting on Sunday as his status still up in the air, but I do not think it matters. Houston was more than happy with the play of their DB's in preseason and QB Osweiler should prove more than average for the Texans, especially compared to the QB mess they has last year, and Houston still made the playoffs! Backed up by 2 stud WR's, and a good RB in Miller, Houston's offense should have Chicago's defense on their heels all day.
Let me ask you a question, when Jay Cutler has to run around because his OL cannot block, and throws on the run, what happens? He throws picks, and that is not new, that is his reputation and when it goes bad for Jay, he tends to not be a leader of the team, but rather a guy who sits on the bench and sulks.
I say Texans by 10 in this one, the line dropping in my opinion off the fall number of 6 is a gift. Make a great half of a teaser as well.
Jack Jones
Bears vs. Texans
Play: Bears +6
I believe the Chicago Bears are a strong value play in Week 1 as 6-point underdogs to the Houston Texans on the road. While I'm not huge on the Bears this season, I do think they will keep this one more competitive than the oddsmakers and betting public.
Chicago went on a solid 8-5 ATS run over its final 13 games last year. It did go just 6-10 straight up, but seven of those losses were by a touchdown or less. That means the Bears were in 13 of the 16 games they played with a chance to win late in the 4th quarter.
John Fox had this team headed in the right direction. There's no question the Bears were better than their record in his first season last year. That's evident by the fact that they finished almost dead even in yardage differential, averaging 344.6 yards per game on offense and giving up a respectable 345.4 yards per game on defense.
Houston was a solid 9-7 team last season, but it is being over-hyped coming into 2016. Most believe the Texans will run away with the AFC South, but I'm not buying it. They got to beat up on bad Colts, Jaguars and Titans teams last year, but now all three of those teams will be improved and I could make a case for all three to win the division. I'm not sold on Brock Osweiler being the answer, either.
The Bears get a boost to their offense this season with a healthy return of WR Kevin White, who missed all of last season due to an injury. The 2015 first-round pick teams with Alshon Jeffery as one of the more underrated WR combos in the league. Plus, Jay Cutler had one of his best seasons yet last year even without White.
Fox always has a solid defense everywhere he goes, and he did a good job upgrading it this offseason after a solid year in which they gave up 345 yards per game. This defense should take another step forward in 2016.
Defensively for the Texans, JJ Watt is not 100 percent healthy heading in 2016 after having back surgery this offseason. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. They are consistently undervalued away from home and are again in Week 1.
Marc Lawrence
Browns vs. Eagles
Play: Browns +3½
Edges - Browns: 6-0 ATS when playing with quadruple revenge; and 5-1 ATS away before facing the Ravens. Eagles: 1-6 ATS home openers; and 1-6 ATS single digit favorites versus AFC opponents. With the last 6 new Philadelphia head coaches a paltry 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their home openers, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Bill Biles
Giants vs. Cowboys
Play: Over 46
When these 2 teams play you can expect to see huge offensive numbers. Dallas will look to unveil their top pick Elliot and get new Qb Prescott to show what he can do. On the other side Eli and company have another year in the offensive system and they can score some points. Look for the over to hit in this one.
Sam Martin
Cincinnati at New York
Play: Cincinnati -2½
Not enough respect given to a Cincinnati team that won 12 games last year, and if not for an injury to QB Andy Dalton they could have made some noise in the playoffs. Dalton is back and this offense was under-appreciated last season. In fact, Cincy covered the spread in all eight of their road games. Jets will be an average team this year and can't match the Bengals firepower on offense. Bengals defense isn't that bad either, and with a few upgrades they should be better on that side of the ball than they were last year. With this low number we're practically picking the outright winner, and even on the road Cincinnati has no problem getting past the Jets.
Jimmy Boyd
Packers vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +5
No surprise here, the betting public is all over Green Bay. As much hype as the Jaguars have been getting, it means nothing when facing the Packers. The public loves to back Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay and will do so at what they perceive to be a favorable line.
I’m going opposite of the public action in this one and taking the Jaguars to cover the number at home. All the talk about Jacksonville surprising this year is legit. This team has the weapons to score offensively and the defense should be greatly improved. They got Pro Bowl caliber players littered on the defensive side of the ball.
One of my big concerns with Green Bay is how they will handle the humidity and heat they will be up against in Jacksonville. The Packers haven't played well on the road early in the season over recent years.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Packers are minus starting center Corey Linsley, who is on the PUP list. Backup guard Lane Taylor is being forced into the starting role. It might not seem like a big deal, but the play of the center is huge in the NFL. I think it slows down the Packers offense just enough to allow the Jags to cover.
Keep in mind this Jacksonville defense Rodgers will be facing is very young and athletic. The team is raving about last year’s first round pick in Dante Fowler Jr. They also added Malik Jackson up front and safety Tashaun Gibson. Not to mention stud rookie corner Jalen Ramsey.
Offensively the Jaguars have a lot more weapons than you might realize. Despite being under constant pressure, Blake Bortles made huge strides in year two. They have two big time playmakers at receiver in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. They also beefed up the ground game with the addition of Chris Ivory.
With a huge division game on deck at Minnesota, I think Green Bay potentially overlooks this contest against a Jaguars team that has been awful over the last 5 years (19-61). I see a close game throughout, with the value clearly with the home team in this one.