Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus the points against the Atlanta Falcons, in what should be an interesting opener for these two NFC South rivals.
I personally think the Bucs will turn things around this season, and could be a thorn in Carolina's side, challenging for the division title. That's why this game today could prove to be pivotal in about 15 or 16 weeks.
Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter is the Falcons' former offensive coordinator, and will make his debut this week. But get this, Koetter's defensive coordinator is former Atlanta coach Mike Smith. Talk about knowing the nuances of a team, something tells me the Falcons are going to struggle a tad, and could stall offensively at times.
I'm pumped to see Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston, as I also think he will be ready to put on a show today.
The Falcons bring a brutal 1-8 ATS skid against NFC teams into the season, while Tampa Bay has cashed out in 11 of its last 15 meetings with Atlanta.
Take the road pup in this one.
4* BUCCANEERS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Vikings and Titans to hold Under the total.
Whether it's Shaun Hill or the newly-acquired Sam Bradford under center for Mike Zimmer's Vikings, the one thing that remains certain is the Minnesota defense is the Vikings calling card.
Minnesota opened last year with 5 straight Unders, and finished the season at 12-4-1 Under the total (playoff loss to Seattle included). The Vikes will face a Tennessee team that did start the Marcus Mariota era by putting up 42 points on the opening week of the season last year when they pasted Tampa Bay, 42-14 in Tampa last September. I don't see the Minny defense which ended last season 5th in points allowed giving up anywhere close to that total.
The Vikes will play this one close to the vest on offense with their quarterback situation not yet "settled", as Minnesota relies on their defense to control the flow in this game.
I like this one to be one of the lower-scoring games on the Week One docket.
Minnesota-Tennessee Under the total.
4* MINNESOTA-TENNESSEE UNDER
Brandon Lee
Rockies -113
Colorado is worth a look here as a small road favorite in Sunday's NL West series finale against the Padres. The Rockies will send out Chad Bettis, who comes in on fire with a 2.14 ERA and 0.905 WHIP over his last 3 starts. San Diego on the other hand will counter with Edwin Jackson, who has an ugly 6.13 ERA and 1.840 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Jackson is also 1-3 with an awful 12.00 ERA in 9 career starts against the Rockies. Colorado is 10-3 in Bettis' last 13 starts in day games and 9-3 in his last 12 starts in the 2nd half of the season.
Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -2½
Tampa Bay is on a lot of sleeper lists this season as the Buccaneers look to break through and grab a playoff spot for the first time since 2007. That may not be realistic quite yet for Tampa Bay as this is certainly a team on the rise but not quite there yet. Five of the Buccaneers six wins last season came by a touchdown or less while six losses were by double-digits so there is still a lot of ground to make up to play more consistent. Atlanta was an early season surprise last season as it opened 5-0 but then dropped eight of its final 11 games to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs for a third straight season. It was still considered a success in some regards as the Falcons had won just 10 games in the previous two years combined. Head coach Dan Quinn did a great job on the defensive side of things as Atlanta went from No. 32 in points allowed and No. 27 in yards allowed in 2014 to No. 16 and No. 14 respectively last season. The offense will be solid once again and it will be up to quarterback Matt Ryan to try and get back to his old form after putting up his lowest passer rating since 2009, his second season in the league. It is interesting to note that his top two single-game performances in terms of passer rating, 155.9 and 148.4, came against the Buccaneers at the Georgia Dome. The Buccaneers defense was a huge problem last season and while they did bring in some solid talent to try and improve, we likely will not see much improvement early on. The big storyline here as they did hire Mike Smith as the defensive coordinator but his defenses in Atlanta were 24th or worse in his last three seasons there. Look for the home field to be the difference here.
John Ryan
Vikings vs. Titans
Play:Vikings -2½
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; Tennessee is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points: We look to stay in the NFC North and take the defensive minded Vikings in a battle with the Tennessee Titans. The Vikings are coming off a strong season and were only a missed FG from being in the NFC Championship game last year. Both The Vikings and Tennessee offenses struggled last year and the Vikings will be starting Shaun Hill with Sam Bradford in relief. The Titans come off a 3-13 season and look to improve with second year Quarterback Marcus Mariotta, but we feel this offense will struggle against the Minnesota Defense and the Vikings will put up the points needed to start the season on the right foot. The Vikings have been a money maker for their backers the last couple of years and we look for them to start the 2016 season in similar fashion.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +10 over SEATTLE
Make no mistake – for those of you in Survivor Pools, this is the most heavily favored game of the week. This is considered the lock of the week in terms of straight up winners but we’re not as convinced. Besides that, we get 10 big points thanks to the great equalizer and we’re not about to pass them up. Seattle is considered a powerhouse but this isn’t 2014 anymore. That was the year that the Seahawks had it working great but too many guys wanted to get paid and so they needed to re-stock. We don’t expect that they have fully succeeded.
Seattle is re-grouping this year with Pete Carroll trying to fix his offensive line. The Seahawks have taken a shot at maintaining a four-man pressure package with linebacker blitzes, while the corners lock down the receivers for the opposing quarterback’s first set of reads, by which time the pressure is supposed to get there. It rarely did and we don’t expect that to change much this year. On offence, Seattle has had very little beyond Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. Carrol has rebuilt the offensive line in the hopes of getting a power-running game going with some new kids. Seattle’s passing game meanwhile will be dependent upon Jimmy Graham and their cast of no-names. It will be interesting to see how successful they are but teams have now pretty much figured out Russell Wilson, who despite his gaudy numbers would have finished at 9-7 last season had the officials not blown the Detroit game.
The Dolphins come into 2016 with a new Head Coach in Adam Gase. Gase, who followed John Fox to Chicago from Denver last season before getting his first shot as top dog, has hired Vance Joseph as his Defensive Coordinator, which is also Joseph’s first chance at running his own NFL defense. Dolphins owner, Stephen Ross has opted to go with an inexperienced group of coaches to go along with first-time GM Chris Grier while giving overall control to Mike Tannenbaum. In with the new and out with the old and we love it. These long time experienced coaches and coordinators just get recycled over and over. It’s a fraternity. This guy knows this guy who knows this guy who tells the GM to call him and before you know it a guy like Mike Shanahan is working again. New blood and young blood brings new ideas, new strategies and they also know how to work better and relate better with today’s athletes. It matters.
Ryan Tannehill enters his fifth season in Miami and he has improved at least incrementally in every one. He ended with 4208 yards and 24 passing scores in 2015. That included six 300 yard games and yet after a fast start of 13 touchdowns over the first six weeks, he cooled down significantly as the team entered implode mode. Tannehill usually gets slowly better and the reports are that he loves the new direction and approach the team is taking. Tannehill has weapons and almost always starts strong. The Dolphins defense has an all new scheme and coach in Vance Joseph. There are new players in most positions including middle linebacker and cornerbacks. Ndamukong Suh should be good again but the general consensus is that it is not going to come together in Week 1 in Seattle against the Seahawks. That may be true but our position is that Seattle cannot be favored in this range when they are a declining team. Miami had an outstanding preseason and we don’t mean in terms of results. They spent more time than any team going over the intangibles that make a team successful. The Dolphins are determined, focused, young, enthusiastic and confident while the Seahawks are not an improved bunch. Incidentally, of the nine wins that Seattle racked up a year ago, two came against San Fran with single wins over Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit, Chicago, Dallas and Arizona, which occurred in the final week of the season when the Cardinals rested every single starter. Seattle this!
TENNESSEE +121 over Minnesota
The Vikings are market's “sexy” choice to come out of the NFC this season. They are building off a division title a year ago and will open a new state of the art stadium next week when they host Green Bay. Rarely is Week 1 a bad spot for anyone, as teams are excited to play for keeps but if there ever was a Week 1, look-ahead spot, this would be it.
So let’s start with the Vikings running the table in the pre-season. That’s nice but it means jack because preseason football means jack. But the Vikings won the NFC North last year with an 11-5 record you say. We say, “That’s nice too but the Vikes beat two teams with a winning record and one of those was the Chiefs in the midst of a five-game losing streak. Everything about the Vikes is now on hold because Teddy Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury. Reports say Viking players were openly weeping on the sidelines, as they carted their leader off the field. When the dust settled, somehow the Vikes had given up a kings’ ransom to get former number one pick Sam Bradford from the Eagles. However, the market isn’t too shook up by that, as Minnesota’s success revolves around their defense and running game. Hell, if Christian Ponder can win games, so too can Sam Bradford, no?
Time will tell but the emotional letdown of losing its starting QB cannot be overstated here nor can the excitement of opening their new stadium against the Packers next week. Whether it’s positive or negative, the Vikes have been one of the most talked about clubs over the past few weeks while the Titans might be the league’s biggest afterthought. That provides us with this outstanding opportunity.
The Titans are on the right track for sure so don’t sleep on them. Tennessee has improved overall, as they had an excellent draft on both sides of the ball and look to be net winners in Free Agency as well. It appears that the Titans are going to give Mike Mularkey a real shot as Head Coach. Mularkey has been saying all summer that he wants to play smash-mouth football on offense.
The Titans are going to be very different this year. Terry Robiskie comes over from the Falcons to help run the offense but Marcus Mariota gets more help from the rushing offense even if it means a less need to pass. Adding DeMarco Murray already was a big upgrade over the turn-style at tailback last year. Then drafting Derrick Henry (Heisman winner) suddenly makes this backfield something to fear instead of ridicule. Despite little protection and no running game, Mariota still had a serviceable passing rating of 91.3. Expect better things.
On defense, Tennessee’s new GM Jon Robinson (another Patriots alumnus) made a significant overhaul (doubtless in conjunction with Dick Lebeau) bringing in free agents Spence, Johnson and Blake and taking three defenders within the draft’s first 64 picks, as well as three late round picks. The defense should benefit from being in the second year under Lebeau and from the offence controlling the ball, should that indeed come to pass. Tennessee is one of our two choices for being this year’s most improved team and we’ll put that to the test immediately in a great spot and in a very winnable game.
Cleveland +3½ over PHILADELPHIA
The Browns once again sat in the basement of the AFC North with a 3-13 record last year. On the road, Cleveland went 1-7 last year. Fans are attending games with paper bags over their heads. The Brownies also just completed a 0-4 preseason. The Johnny Manziel debacle turned the Brownies into the laughing stock of the NFL….again.
You are likely going to shit out your eyes when this year’s legendary QB battle goes down. Cleveland fans are getting pretty fired up for that Connor Shaw start in Week 11. That’s gonna change everything. Game the fuck on! The Brownies also have a newer, bolder shade of orange on their logo. Paint your living room that color and the walls will come alive. That new orange is part of a full uniform overhaul designed to make the Browns look like a second-tier SEC East team. The jerseys feature the name CLEVELAND on the front so that players can find their way home after getting concussed by opponents. We look at teams deeply every year and the Browns are the original suck. They are the epicenter of suck, which is what makes this LINE so interesting.
Just to recap, everybody hates the Brownies. They are not a big market team nor do people want to bet on them. Again, they went 0-4 in the preseason while the Eagles went 4-0 but that’s not what makes this line interesting. You see, NFL lines come out before the preseason. On July 31, Philadelphia was a 7-point favorite in this game. The Eagles subsequently reel off four preseason wins in a row while Cleveland does not win a single preseason game and the line drops 3½-points. That tells us exactly what the odds makers think about the Eagles 4-0 preseason and what they think of the Eagles overall. Philadelphia is also so much popular in the market than the Brownies are, yet the books are welcoming and encouraging all bets on the host. That’s all the info we need to back the dog here.
This line is unsettled at the moment so we are going to wait to pull the trigger here too. We'll update when we do.
N.Y. JETS +2½ over Cincinnati
We are pretty certain that we are going to get the Jets at +3 on Sunday so we are going to wait to pull the trigger here. Worst case is we play the Jets on the money line but we’re fairly confident that +3 will be forthcoming. We’ll update Sunday but the Jets are on our slate for sure.
There is no need to discuss the X’s and O’s here. We’ll leave that to the idiots on NFL Game-Day that haven’t picked an underdog in 20 years. On paper, Cincinnati has a ton more appeal. The Bengals are a perennial playoff team that went 6-2 on the road last year. Cinci is coming off a 12-4 season while the Jets missed the playoffs again. Week 1’s lines are largely based on last year’s results, thus making the Bengals an obvious choice here. That may be so but we like to look a bit deeper into things. We also never ignore what the odds makers are trying to tell us.
First, -2½ points is a price on a favorite you should make a habit of never or seldom playing because it’s the “sucker” line in terms of favorites. The thinking is that you only have to win by a FG, which is true but our position is that if the odds makers didn’t want you to play the favorite, they would have made the game -3.
Next, we have the season win total for the Jets, which is 7½. Well, this past week, that number moved to 8 at many stores and that is HUGE in determining that the odds makers love the Jets to win in Week 1, otherwise that season win total would not have moved. Pay attention to the odds makers, as that is where the real edge lies.
The Jets sport one of the better defenses in the league that not only features CB Darrelle Revis, but that ranks tops against running backs. All combined, opposing running backs only scored three rushing touchdowns on the Jets last year. There is no glaring weakness on this team though the secondary has allowed teams to succeed attacking the non-Revis side of the defense. The Jets obviously addressed that. Furthermore, the Jets improvement in the offense was profound, going from the #32 passing yardage (3168) to being ranked a respectable 15th (4170). The touchdowns also went up from only 16 to 33 thanks to Ryan Fitzpatrick who returned to the team just in the nick of time. The Jets let Chris Ivory leave but brought in Matt Forte. Most amazing of all, the wideouts went from ranking 30th in 2014 with only eight total touchdowns to being #1 with 29. An eight win projection for New York means victories have to come from somewhere. With such a difficult schedule (at Pittsburgh, Arizona, K.C., Buffalo, New England, Miami and Cleveland), the odds makers are giving the Jets some home victories for sure and plenty of them. The Jets went 6-2 at home last year and this number along with the other mentioned tangibles strongly suggest they are going to start 1-0 this year. Jets outright is our call but if three points are available on Sunday, we’ll grab that instead. This might be Sunday’s best bet of them all. Stay tuned.
River City Sharps
Green Bay Packers -4
Interesting opener for Mike McCarthy and the Green bay Packers as they travel to steamy Florida for a matchup with the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars. These Week 1 NFL games are always more difficult because folks take too much/too little from the preseason games. Here’s what we know…We believe the Packers have the HC advantage with McCarthy over Gus Bradley, who has posted a dreadful 1-11 ATS mark in non-conference games as the Jags HC. We also have a marked advantage at QB, where we will take Aaron Rodgers over Blake Bortles, who is way too prone to throwing the ball to the other team. This Packers offense is going to be much better with Jordy Nelson back to help out both Rodgers and the Packers receiving corps. We will readily admit that Jacksonville has more talent than they have had in some time, with Bortles and a great receiving corps featuring Lee, Robinson and Hurns. Packers RB Eddie Lacy has slimmed down in a contract year and looks to have a big year and we simply believe there is too much value here with the road favorite. We believe Green Bay wins this game by a touchdown. The Sharps say…
Vegas Butcher
TB @ ATL -2.5
Year 2 for both Dan Quinn and Dirk Koetter (was the O-Coordinator last year). The questions to ask are how much will Dan Quinn’s 22nd ranked defense improve and will Koetter continue to improve Tampa’s 13th ranked offense from last year? Clearly the bookmakers think these two teams are very close to open up the season. Remember also that Koetter was Atlanta’s O-Coordinator for 3 years, so he’s very familiar with Ryan and Co. Could that be the reason why the Bucks won both matchups last season? Important to note that both of those games were won by a combined 7 points, as both were extremely close. Atlanta was also horrific offensively last year, as Ryan was as mediocre as one gets. But this is an offense that ranked in the top-half of the league for 4 years prior to that, so a turnaround is very likely. This one is fairly hard to predict and the line makes it even tougher. At +3, Tampa would deserve a closer look. At -2.5, Atlanta is a lean, though a very weak one. Lean: ATL -2.5
MIN @ TEN +3
Typically home underdogs early in the season are worth a very close look, so let’s dig in. What’s interesting to me is that the line on this game was MIN -3 when the spreads first came out. Now, after Bridgewater was lost for the season, the spread only moved by half-a-point? Hmmm. When Brady was officially suspended the spread moved 6-points, when Romo got injured the spread moved 3-points, but in this case it only moved a half. Hmm…. Obviously Bridgewater is NOT as important to his team as Brady is to his. That’s clear. But still, this is a young player, who was entering his 3rd season in the league, and whose expectations were to take a larger control of the offense. Now the Vikes are rolling with Bradford for the rest of the year, but not until week 2 (most likely). A 36-year old Shaun Hill will be the starter in week 1. Hill is a career backup with a 6.8 YPA average. While Tennessee’s defense was horrendous overall last year (30th), they actually ranked 3rd in Adjust Sack Rate (ASR%). The defense will improve this year and I do expect them to once again rush the passer effectively. So where does that leave the Vikings? Are they going to hand off the ball to Peterson 30+ times? It’ll probably start out that way, but if that’s the case, the Titans should have a strong shot here. NFL is a passing league, and anytime you have an opponent that is going to focus on the run instead of the pass, it shouldn’t be too difficult to stifle them. Titans’ new defensive coordinator is Dick LaBeau, one of the Steelers fame. LaBeau is a great defensive coach, someone who will focus on stopping the run in this matchup and forcing Hill to beat them. Minnesota ranked 19th in passing offense last year, and without any key weapons added in the passing game, hard to see them being much better. So these things are ‘known’ in this game. What is unknown is how the Titans’ offense improves? Mariota has the potential to be a stud, the Titans brought Murry and drafted Henry to run the ball, and of course they’ve improved their WR-group with additions of Richard Matthews and drafting of Tajae Sharpe. I expect the Titans to take a step forward this year and for the Vikings to struggle out of the gate, especially after such a devastating QB loss as they’ve encountered. I don’t think there’s a proper adjustment made for Bridgewater’s injury, and the fact that the spread only dropped by half-a-point provides enough value on the home team as a dog. Lean: TEN +3
CLE @ PHI -3.5
Rookie QB Carsonz of an FBS school plus Doug Pederson vs. a veteran in RGIII and Hue Jackson. This is pretty much what this matchup boils down to. Philly was -7 in this matchup with Bradford, but the spread is half that now. It does makes sense as Wentz is a total unknown, and was projected behind Jared Goff in terms of talent/ability. Well, YouTube Goff preseason highlights and see how atrocious he looks. Besides, Wentz cracked his rib in the preseason and missed a lot of valuable time. Expect Philly to be very conservative in this one and rely plenty on the run. On the other side, can we expect Hue to cook up some magic right off the bat? Everyone knows he’s as creative of an offensive coach as there is in this game, and let’s not forget that RGIII is still a talented player, someone who could be a good QB with the right approach. With Coleman, Barnidge, Duke Johnson, Crowell to pound the ball on the ground, and even Pryor, Cleveland has some solid playmakers. And if anyone can bring the best out of them, it’s Hue Jackson. Both defenses ranked in the bottom 10 last year, so tough to predict right now how each will perform this year, but offensively I believe the edge has to go to Cleveland here. With that being said, I think we’ll see a very close game and grabbing points could be the way to go. Lean: CLE +3.5
CIN @ NYJ +2.5
Another home underdog early in the year, so another team to consider strongly. This one is interesting. The Jets are off a 10-6 season, Fitzpatrick resigned, and the defense will have another offseason under Bowles. On the other side, Cincy is without Marvin Jones, Sanu, and Eifert (to start the year). They’re also without Hue Jackson, who was a huge difference maker at O-coordinator. Sure the team is still plenty talented, but these are some massive changes. I think both squads are fairly even, especially this early in the season. To make it even more interesting, the Jets are playing at home, on the anniversary of 9/11. Football is a very emotional game, and I can’t help but think this team will be extra amped up to play in front of their home fans in this one. Seems like a lot of value on the home dog in this one. Lean: NYJ +2.5
OAK @ NO -2
Saints at home as 2-point favorites against the Raiders? Did Christmas come early in September? That’s the thought that most people probably have. But it’s important to note that Oakland could be a much-improved team. They shored up their O-line with Osemele, brought in Irvin, Nelson, and Sean Smith and drafted defensive players to improve the D, and will now have a healthy Cooper to start out the year (he was playing hurt late in the season). Of course you could also say that the Saints will improve as well. Their historically bad D of last season has nowhere to go but up and Drew Brees finally has some decent talent around him on offense. Still, this is not the Saints of past years when they absolutely annihilated their competition at home. This team is only 7-9 SU at home over the last 2 seasons, and this one is not as automatic as it seems at first. Clearly the bookmakers don’t think so either. Lean: OAK +2
SD @ KC -6.5
The Chiefs have won 4-in-a-row in this matchup, dating back to 2014 season. But that’s in the past and the important thing is that this is a divisional game. We know who the Chiefs are as they didn’t have too much turnover this off-season. Of course they’ll be without Houston, their top pass rusher, for this game. On the other side, San Diego will have a healthy O-line for this game! That’s key because this team had more injuries along their O-line than I’ve ever seen in one season. In addition I love the addition of Hayward from GB and Bosa during the draft. Bosa won’t play in week 1 but overall I expect this D, especially the pass-D, to improve greatly. Chargers didn’t play like a 4-12 team last year but more like a 6-10 squad (based on Pythagorean record), and that’s with all of their injuries and inability to run the ball at all. This year’s team should be much improved and this being a divisional game I expect a close one. Too many points. Lean: SD +6.5
BUF @ BAL -3.5
The Bills were a top-10 offense last year and a bottom-3 D, Rex Ryan’s first year as HC. Who would have thought? So what does the team do in the off-season to make improvements? Sign Rex’ brother, Rob of course. The same Rob who was in charge of the historically bad Saints D last season and of horrible defenses of Dallas, Cleveland, and Oakland before that. I think it’s pretty clear that Rob Ryan is an awful defensive coordinator, yet here he is, helping his brother turn the Bills around. Honestly, I’m assuming that Rex is just giving his brother a ‘job’, but Rex will be primarily responsible for the D. Offensively, this Bills team is deceptively good with Taylor emerging as a double-threat QB, Watkins being a premier WR in the league, and McCoy still having plenty in the tank. On the other side, we have a Baltimore team that is looking to bounce-back after a lost season. Flacco is reportedly healthy but who knows how he’ll look in his first game back. Plus Baltimore’s best RB in preseason, Kenneth Dixon, is sidelined for the next few weeks. In addition, Ben Watson is lost for the season and Steve Smith is coming off a major injury. This Ravens squad could really struggle to move the ball in this one. One other major issue for Baltimore is the fact that Dumervil has been declared out, which is a huge loss on D. I’m not sure why this spread is going over the FG mark, but that screams value on the road team. Lean: BUF +3.5
CHI @ HOU -5
Do you remember that Osweiler lost his job to an ineffective Peyton Manning last year? That’s the QB that Houston has chased in the off-season. Texans made the playoffs in a horrific division last year, but was NOT a ‘playoff team’. This defense is aging, JJ Watt is coming off a back surgery, and the offense is a major question mark in my opinion. Why can’t the Bears pull an upset here? Fox has invested in the defense during the off-season and expecting improvements out of the unit coached by him and Vic Fangio (two excellent defensive coaches) is very realistic. Offensively, the Bears will keep a very similar offense even with the departure of Gase. Chicago should have a stronger O-line with signing of Sitton (stud with GB) and moving Long back to guard. Plus with Jeffery healthy and Langford at RB, Chicago has some playmakers. Of course it’d be ideal if White suited up as well, as he’s currently listed as questionable. Regardless, I don’t think these two teams are as far off as the spread indicates. Lean: CHI +5
GB @ JAX +4.5
Another home underdog! We already know that the Jags offensive is loaded with playmakers, and that’s before Ivory joined the squad. Defensively though, this team could be much better. They’e added Gipson, House (from GB actually), Ramsey (stud!), Amukamar, Myles Jack (steal of the draft if he’s fully healthy!), and the return of Fowler, the 3rd overall pick last season who tore his ACL in 2015 pre-season. This is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the field, and now it’s up to the coaches to make it work. Green Bay of course still has Rodgers but there are question marks. How will Jordy Nelson play early in the year? Is Eddie Lacy truly as explosive as Green Bay’s coaching staff will have you believe? Do the Packers have replacements for Raji (taking a year off) and Hayward (in San Diego) defensively? There’s a lot of question marks on both sides of the field for the Packers this early in the year. Where there are no question marks is in the fact that the Jags should be one of the most improved teams in the league. This line isn’t a “mistake” as it might appear to some but an indication of exactly that improvement Lean: JAX +4.5
MIA @ SEA -10.5
Seahawks are going to be the best team in the league this season from my perspective (and most other handicappers’ as well of course). Miami is going through a regime change in the off-season and will be missing a number of key players in this one (Parker, Pouncey, Culever). Seattle is justifiably listed as a favorite, but I don’t lay double-digit points this early in the season (not often at all actually). Easy pass. PASS
DET @ IND -3
Which Lions team will show up, the one that struggled in the first half of 2015 or the second half juggernaut that went 6-2, with one of the losses being a Hail Marry pass by Rodgers to end the game. I think Detroit did well to replace Calvin Johnson by signing Marvin Jones and Boldin. Sure they’re not Megatron, but both are quality players. I think the Lions should be fine this year and a border line playoff team. On the other side, we have the Colts who are getting Luck back this season. Of course it’s important to note that Luck has been a very turnover prone QB so far in his career. Why is that a factor? Well, because Indy doesn’t have a good defense to be able to compensate for that. To make matters worse, their best defensive player, Vonate Davis is out for this matchup. Que up all of your Lions fantasy players this week! Detroit has a top-10 pass-rush last season (based on ASR%) and DeAndre Levy is back now after missing all of 2015. I expect a close game here with both teams having a chance to win it late. Lean: DET +3
NE @ ARZ -7
No Brady and no Gronk, two of the most important players for the Pats. I’m not as high on the Cardinals as some (I think Palmer is going to regress this season after a career year), but they’re in a great spot in this one. Still, fading Belichik with a TD is not something I’d ever do. PASS
Nelly
Cincinnati Bengals - over NY Jets
The Jets have had great success in this series but the Bengals are looking like the AFC's most complete team, at least in September. Cincinnati dominated the last meeting which was in 2013 and a Jets team coming off a strong debut season for Todd Bowles will look to avoid a step-back start after a trying summer highlighted by the late arrival of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bengals won and covered in all four games as a road favorite last season and this spread looks short for a team that should be in peak form early in the season. Cincinnati is on an 11-3 ATS run in the last 14 road games as well. Last season the Bengals were a bigger favorite in Oakland and in Buffalo and the Jets will have a hard time matching last season's success. New York is also 11-25 ATS in home openers going back to 1980 as a team that is frequently overhyped early in the season.
Scott Delaney
My freebie for Sunday is going to be on the San Diego Chargers, on the road in Kansas City. I really tried to like the Chiefs - trust me, I did - but there's something about this line that intrigues me, and I'm on the Bolts.
The AFC West rivals are meeting for the 10th time in a season-opener, and I think the Chargers have the edge offensively. Kansas City ranked 27th in the league on offense last season, and now it will be without Jamaal Charles, who tore his right ACL.
On the other hand, the Chargers welcome in Ken Whisenhunt as the new offensive coordinator. I think he has done wonders in structuring a better offensive line in San Diego, and quarterback Philip Rivers will be able to see his receivers and set up plays with time.
I'm taking the road dog in this one, as the Chargers challenge for the outright win.
1* CHARGERS
Dave Price
Indianapolis Colts -2.5
Andrew Luck is back and the Indianapolis Colts come into 2016 underrated. That's evident by the fact that this line has dropped from -4.5 to -2.5, which is a huge move in the NFL. Essentially the Colts just have to win to cover today, and I think that won't be a problem against the lowly Detroit Lions. Chuck Pagano is 13-4 ATS in home games when the total is 45.5 or higher as the coach of Indianapolis. The Colts are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +123 over PITTSBURGH
Ryan Vogelsong has appeared in 19 games this season with nine of those coming as a starter. Since returning from a frightening eye injury after being hit in the face by a pitch, Vogelsong has one quality start in six tries, which occurred against San Diego in Pittsburgh on August 10. Since that start, Vogelsong has a BB/K split of 13/17, a WHIP of 1.65 and an ERA/xERA split of 5.88/5.66. It gets even worse. Vogelsong’s velocity has dipped another MPH down to 89. His swinging strike rate is also down and is now at 6%. His once decent control is gone, thus eliminating his appeal everywhere. Any good numbers he posted this year are meaningless because they came in relief. Vogelsong lived on the margins when had moderate success and now at the age of 38, he'll struggle to generate positive value again or pitch again in the majors after this year. Pitching for one of the coldest teams in baseball (two wins in past 12 games), this is perhaps the least appealing favorite that has appeared on the menu all week.
Brandon Finnegan looked like a new pitcher in August after struggling for most of the season. With 9.9 K’s per nine and 45% grounders, Finnegan had one of the best August profiles of any pitcher in the majors. Over his last 30 innings, covering five starts, Finnegan has whiffed 38 batters while posting an ERA/xERA split of 2.97/3.11. Finnegan’s main issue prior to August was a lack of control, as he’s walked 76 batters in 160 innings overall. However, his WHIP since the beginning of August is a mere 0.99 so perhaps a minor tweak in his mechanics has led to better control. Finnegan is the extremely superior starter taking back a tag and the Reds are in better form than the disinterested Pirates as well.
Boston +136 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays relieved a lot of pressure with their 3-2 victory yesterday but the issues remained the same. Toronto scored just three times. An Aaron Hill error allowed the Jays to score their third run too. What we find extremely interesting is that Aaron Sanchez is a smaller price today against Clay Buchholz than J.A. Happ was against Eduardo Rodriguez yesterday. That simply does not make sense because Sanchez is tough as shoe leather and Buchholz has an ERA/xERA split of 4.99/5.05. The line here strongly suggests that the books give the Red Sox a mighty chance to take the rubber game.
Perhaps taking Sanchez out of the rotation for 10 days messed up everything for the Jays. Sanchez’s swinging strike rate since his return is only 8%. He has just 17 K’s in his last 24 innings with an xERA of 4.37 over that span. When you’re told the same thing over and over again and read about it constantly, perhaps you begin to believe it. Sanchez has been hearing that’s he’s tired for weeks on end now.
Jays’ hitters have seen Buchholz dozens of times. Current Jays have a combined 274 AB’s versus Buchholz and based on the numbers, Buchholz isn’t stymieing these hitters with an oppBA of .274. That said, we are going to put aside all the stats and numbers and focus on the teams and the line. Toronto is playing tight, Boston is playing loose and again, when compared to yesterday’s line, today’s price says Boston is your likely winner.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Houston
Pick: Houston +140
The mighty Cubs are a road favorite, but not a dominant road team (39-31). The Cubs are 16-36 in interleague road contests against a team with a winning record. Houston is strong at home with 40 wins and ranks #12 in baseball in runs scored and homers. This is the sixth straight road game for the Cubs, and they face a Houston squad with plenty of motivation, 2.5 games behind Baltimore for the second Wild Card. The Astros are 27-12 in interleague games, including 17-7 in interleague play against a right-handed starter. Houston topped the Cubbies 2-1 yesterday handing Chicago its fourth loss in seven games. The Astros go with Mike Fiers, who is 6-3 at home with a 3.33 ERA, plus 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five games against the Cubs. Chicago is just 3-11 on the road against a team with a winning record, plus 3-7 in this park, so grab the hungry home dog.