Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 17th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

BEARS AT BUCCANEERS
PLAY: BEARS +7 -125

I have two thoughts here. The first is that the Bears looked good in a narrow loss to the defending Super Bowl runners up who actually should be the defending Super Bowl champs. Chicago should have beaten Atlanta on Sunday, but a late drop on what would have been a game winning TD cost them dearly. Nevertheless, that was a good effort by the Bears and I think they’ll take the field at Tampa with confidence this Sunday.

Then there’s the unusual situation with the Bucs. As this is not the CFL, which has an odd number of teams, no one gets a bye in the opening week of the NFL. That is, except for this season, as Hurricane Irma caused the Bucs and Dolphins to postpone their Week One hookup.

It’s merely opinion for me, but I think this is a negative for the Bucs and Dolphins. While I’m sure the players on each team cannot wait to actually take the field, I’m also of the belief that having a real game under their belts will benefit the two opponents.

That makes the Bears an attractive choice for me, as I can see them being the shaper entry, and I’m getting a bunch of points to boot. Chicago plus the TD is today’s free play.

Carlo Campanella

Arizona at Indianapolis
Play: Arizona -7½

Without QB Luck the Colts might currently be the worst team in the NFL. While we don't like to make too much out of week #1 results, the Colts lost 46-9 to a Rams team that went 4-12 SU last year and hasn't had a winning season in more than 10 years! The Colts managed only 225 offensive yards and will struggle to put points on the board against a Cardinals defense that held the Lions to just 367 offensive yards despite giving them 4 turnovers! Only making this a 10a* FREE play because the line is more than a TD at -7.5 and Cards QB Carson Palmer is 38 years old and has struggled since the end of last season and star RB David Johnson was injured week #1.

Robert Ferringo

Jacksonville (+1.5) over Tennessee

I think that the wrong team is favored here. Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Jacksonville and just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Jaguars. I thought the Jags looked really good at Houston last week. They didn't just beat the Texans, they beat them up physically. The Titans never really threatened the Raiders last week and now they are on the road and staring 0-2 in the face. The NFL regular season always has some flagrant surprises. And I think when everyone wakes up Monday morning they are going to look at the AFC South standings and see the Jaguars alone at 2-0. This team has adopted a more physical, run-based approach and look more disciplined on both sides of the ball. The public is absolutely pouring money into the Titans without stopping to ask what this team has done to be installed as a road favorite here. The home team has won six straight in the series and the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five times they've squared off. I like Jacksonville to pull the upset.

Power Sports

Arizona vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis +8.5

Based on their horrific 46-9 Week 1 loss, few (if anybody!) will want to see the Colts in this space. They made the Rams look like a bonafide playoff contender and HC Chuck Pagano doesn't seem long for this job given he though he lost to the 49ers (look it up!). Without Andrew Luck under center, this is one of the worst rosters in the league. But from a strictly power rankings perspective, there is a ton of value here in fading an Arizona team playing on the road for 2nd straight week (both early starts!) and now w/o star RB David Johnson.

The Cardinals also didn't have a very fun Week 1. They blew a lead in Detroit and lost 35-23. Four turnovers didn't help, but the big story was the loss of Johnson for the next several months. That makes a team I had rated as a fringe playoff contender coming into the year now nothing more than sub-.500 fare. QB Carson Palmer is old and nearing the end of the line. The entire offense was built around Johnson, so expect them to struggle to score points. The defense is young. Will Arizona still win here? Possibly. But not by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for.

Maybe it will be Scott Tolzien, maybe it will be Jacoby Brissett. But whomever starts at QB for the Colts here can't be worse than Tolzien was last week, even Tolzein himself. This figures to be a low-scoring affair, so naturally the underdog is the way to go. Home dogs off a Week 1 SU loss have gone 30-14 ATS since '05. Hold your nose and go w/ the Colts Sunday.

Matt Josephs

Patriots vs. Saints
Play: Over 56

This one has shootout written all over it after the two teams allowed over 1000 yards of offense and 71 points to their respective opponents. New England lost at home 42-27 to the Chiefs as the offense looked bad too. Tom Brady didn't lock in with his receivers and Gronk was neutralized for the most part. Dont'a Hightower is hurt and hasn't practiced yet this week. He's an important cog to the defense. New Orleans was gashed by the Vikings who did whatever they wanted to both on the ground and through the air. We know how good their offense is at home though and it would benefit them to use Adrian Peterson more. The Saints have gone over in 10 of their last 16 home games including nine of their last 13 at home where the total is 49.5 or more. The Pats love the turf going over in 17 of their last 28. This one should be one of the best games of the day.

Ricky Tran

Dolphins vs. Chargers
Play: Chargers -4

The Chargers come off a tough loss at Denver in which they could have lost by more than 3 points, but one they also could have won. On the very first drive, Trevor Siemian threw what should have been a pick-si, but it was dropped.That play would have been a 14 point swing and could have easily propelled the Chargers to victory. The Charges come into this game in not the best of spots coming off that MNF game, but at least they have a game under their belt and know what to work on in practice - unlike Miami. The Dolphins haven’t practiced for 7 days and the starters haven’t played since August 24th in the third preseason game at Philadelphia. They are far away from any good rhythm going into the game at Los Angeles this Sunday. This especially counts for Jay Cutler who was signed through training camp. Cutler didn’t have an off-season and played in two preseason games.

The Dolphins defensive line will take care for some three and outs, but the rest of the defense has too many holes. Linebackers Kiko Alonso and Lawrence Timmons can’t cover anybody – Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry should have themselves a day. Their cornerbacks won’t consistently get the better out of Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman. Second-level tackling and closing space is also an issue for this Dolphins defense, so when Melvin Gordon breaks out, he is gonna get a few good gains. We can also compare this game to last year’s matchup when the Dolphins won 31-24 at San Diego. The Chargers were playing without Keenan Allen on offense, Jason Verrett on defense and were overall pretty much decimated. Ryan Tannehill played almost a perfect game, yet the Dolphins still needed 4 picks by Philip Rivers (one a pick-six) to win that game. Dolphins won the turnover battle 4-1. This time they will get a much more healthier Chargers team with a QB whose arm isn’t on a decline yet and the Dolphins themselves play with a much worse QB.

The Dolphins offense has a bad matchup in this one. The only weakness the Chargers have is at LB which will make Jay Ayavi get some breakout runs and some screen opportunities. Because Jay Cutler can’t throw the ball deep accurately, their corners are likely going to play press coverage a lot, because they have the corners to match up with an overrated Dolphins receiving corps and to cause Cutler to make throws into tighter windows. This will also let the defense play more closely to the line of scrimmage to react proper to all the screens Adam Gase is likely to call. I don’t see how the Dolphins score many points in this one.

Wunderdog

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Minnesota +7

Minnesota upgraded the offensive line and the ground game in the offseason with rookie RB Dalvin Cook. The team looks solid across the board, and is coming off a 29-19 win over the Saints. The new and improved ground attack had 129 yards (Cook had 127, 5.8 yards per carry) and QB Sam Bradford was 27-of-32 for 346 yards, three TDs, no picks, only one sack. The Vikings are on a 39-17 ATS run, including 12-5 ATS against winning teams. Minnesota is on short rest after winning Monday night, but the team is 17-7 against the spread when playing on six or fewer days of rest. Pittsburgh won the opener but was fortunate to do so against the always rebuilding Browns, winning 21-18 as nine-point chalk. The team was not in mid-season form with 13 penalties, as the offense was 5-of-13 on third down and had a turnover. They are banged up at linebacker and the secondary is stocked with young players, making this a great spot for the talented dog to keep it close. Go with the points and Minnesota.

SPORTS WAGERS

INDIANAPOLIS +7 over Arizona

With The Franchise sidelined at least another week, the winless Colts are considering sliding new arrival Jacoby Brissett into the starting quarterback spot for Sunday’s home opener against the Arizona Cardinals. After the way Scott Tolzien played Sunday in Los Angeles, it’s hard to imagine the Colts not giving Brissett a shot. What does this team have to lose? After all, they just got pasted by the Rams but that’s where this football team sits, one week into what figures to be a bumpy season. The Colts are thin on options, picking between a QB who’s coming off a ghastly Week 1 performance – Tolzien’s passer rating was 33.8 in that disastrous loss in L.A. – and one who arrived in town eight days ago. If Jacoby Brissett gets the nod for Sunday, he’ll have all of six practices under his belt with the Colts. That’s tough for any quarterback, let alone one with two career starts to his name and a playbook he’s still absorbing. Man, it’s tough to endorse the Colts here but we also know not to overreact to one score or one game. Furthermore, teams’ that get embarrassed almost always respond. Aside from that, are the Cardinals that good that they’re priced in the same range that Pittsburgh was in Cleveland in Week 1? We don’t think so.

David Johnson was a year wiser and a year better. John Brown had his health mostly figured out. Jaron Brown was back from ACL surgery. Carson Palmer’s arm was well-rested. Larry Fitzgerald was back. The Arizona Cardinals’ offense this year was supposed to look more like the 2015 version, which led the NFL in total yards, than the 2016 edition. All the pieces were there. Then the Cardinals arrived at Ford Field on Sunday and barely managed 300 total yards in a 35-23 loss to the Detroit Lions. Carson Palmer threw four picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. He short-hopped a couple of passes and threw behind a few receivers. Everything the Cardinals’ offense was supposed to be Sunday, it wasn’t and we warned you that last season was not an anomaly. The Cardinals were sloppy and weak in Detroit and even though we’re looking at just one game this season, it’s a carryover from last year in which they played exactly like that all season long.

Miami +3½ over L.A. CHARGERS

If you went to bed early and checked the box score on the Changers 24-21 loss to the Broncos, you might be disappointed that you missed a good game. Rest easy, you didn't. The Chargers were lifeless as the Broncos dictated the pace of play on both sides of the ball for almost 3½ quarters. The Bolts were down 24-7 going into the 4th quarter and one could say the Broncs let up a bit, which led to a big momentum shift before the Broncs held on for dear life. L.A. had a chance to tie it on the final play of regulation when rookie kicker, Younghoe Koo made the tying kick only to have to retry because of the "freeze" time out called by the Broncos. The second attempt was blocked. The Chargers may have changed their location but the bizarre losses continue to pile up. Philip Rivers had a horrible day passing with just 192 yards in the air. The Bolts defense played soft coverage all game and ended up making Trevor Siemian look like Aaron Rodgers for three quarters.

The Chargers will play its first game at "home" in Los Angeles at the StubHub Center which is a 30,000 soccer seat stadium. No NFL team has averaged less than 50,000 people a game over the last five seasons but after leaving San Diego behind, it will be interesting to see how the Chargers will be received in L.A. Going from a +3 point pooch to a -4½ point favorite is a big swing for the Chargers on a short week after playing that late game in Denver on Monday night. We didn't see anything from San Diego in that game that would suggest a 7½-point swing is in order. In fact, we saw the same old underachieving group that hasn’t been able to put anyone away for two years plus.

With the season ending injury to quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins’ year appears to be over before it starts. With Hurricane Irma bearing down on the state of Florida, the debut of former Bears QB Jay Cutler has been delayed one week. The Cutler signing has been panned by fans far more than it’s been praised but is Cutler really that much of a step down from Tannehill? Last season Tannehill was ranked 25th in Defensive Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) which is a stat used to measure what would happen if a starting QB was replaced by a run of the mill passer. In 2016, it’s estimated that a generic replacement quarterback throwing in the same situations as Tannehill would have actually been 12 yards better. Basically, Tannehill was average at best last season so it would not have mattered who the Dolphins had taking snaps. The Dolphins have been out on the West Coast for over a week and the reports are that they’re intensely focused and ready to get going.

Lastly, the market has a propensity to get behind a team that has a game under their belt that is playing a team without one. The thinking is that the team that has played one game has shaken off the rust while the opposition has to go through that process. We see it otherwise. For one, Miami doesn’t come in bruised and battered like the Chargers will after playing their first game of the season, on a short week, no less. Secondly, Miami has a full game tape on the Chargers while San Diego has no tape to study on the Dolphins. Finally, L.A.’s improvements across all facets of the game were supposed to be on full display last week but it was not. Instead, we found out once again, that this is still not an outfit not suited to laying points. That's especially true given the program's history of close games and poor track record in the role of home non-division favorite.

Philadelphia +5½ over KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs were flawless in their Thursday night opener in New England and the market has responded in a big way. In fact, after that singled out opening game of the season on a Thursday night, Twitter was abuzz about how good the Chiefs looked and we assure you that it did not go unnoticed by the oddsmakers. Thus, anticipation for this opening line was high and when it came out as -4½, the market was quick to pounce. We also assure you that the oddsmakers were anticipating Kansas City money in a big way but they had no fear in sending out a perceived short number.

We could go into all the details about how rookie runner Kareem Hunt is the latest fantasy star to come out of the K.C. backfield, just like Jamal Charles, Larry Johnson, and Priest Holmes were before him. We could tell you all about how Alex Smith played the game of his life by throwing for over 360 yards and four touchdowns. We can also go into detail about how the Chiefs put the hammer down in New England in the second half and put that team away in very impressive fashion but we won’t. Every single person reading this is very aware of what the Chiefs did last week, both individually and as a team. You not only watched it, you have probably heard and read about it two dozen times since.

We always preach that football is not about X’s and O’s. If everything played to form, we would all be rich but it simply does not work that way. We could easily make a case for the Chiefs here but that’s not our gig. We will not stray from our strategy of playing overreactions and in turn, grabbing inflated points or value because of that overreaction. Not only did K.C. lay a beating on a team last week, they did it against a team that was supposed to go 19-0. A big overreaction is in play here and while there are no guarantees, we do guarantee that the oddsmakers did not err when they opened with K.C. being a -4½-point choice. Indeed, K.C. looks appealing but one should always beware of shiny objects at the dollar store. Play the value.

NEW ORLEANS +6 over New England

The Saints played on Monday night and the entire country watched, as their poor defense was torched again and ended up being the reason that Sam Bradford was named Week 1’s offensive player of the week. That’s not all the negatives, as it was not pretty. Not pretty at all. The Saints appear to have three starting-quality running backs and are giving each 1/3 of the workload. Adrian Peterson (6-18) looked embarrassed to have such minimal playing time against his old team. Mark Ingram (6-17) wondered what happened to his 1,000-yard season last year while Alvin Kamara (7-18) just wants these old guys to get out of his way. The 29-19 loss to the Vikes on Monday night was a flattering score to the Saints. The biggest overreactions are always to prime time games and that applies here. The Saints figure to be better but what really sticks out to us is that the market is ignoring the Patriots poor performance, also in a prime time game.

When talking about aging quarterbacks, 40-year old Tom Brady has largely been left out of the conversation but that cannot be the case any longer. Over the last two games, the Patriots have been in a position to be blown out and the only thing that saved them in the Super Bowl was the complete meltdown by the Falcons coaching staff who couldn't figure out you should run the ball and kill the clock with a big lead. By continuing to pass the ball in the 4th quarter, the Falcons opened a window and Tom Brady kicked the door down. For three quarters the Super Bowl, Brady and Belichick looked bewildered and lost. Don’t forget that.

In Week 1, the Patriots never got that chance to comeback, as the Chiefs brought down the hammer by keeping the ball on the ground in a 42-27 victory. While Brady gets all the credit for the Super Bowl comeback, he could not have done it without receiver Julian Edelman, who was severely missed in Week 1 after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. Against the Chiefs, Brady was missing receivers left and right and only managed to complete 16 of 36 passes with no touchdowns while taking three sacks. The Patriots were gifted at least 10 points in that game too. New England's biggest weakness coming into this season was their inability to cover an opposing team's top receiving threat. The high-priced signing of Stephon Gilmore was supposed be address that issue and be a game changer but it wasn’t, as Gilmore was burned for a touchdown the first time he was challenged by Alex Smith. New England made the pedestrian Smith look like an All-Pro after allowing 352 yards in the air. Don’t forget that either. Smith may never throw for 352 yards again, ever. Rookie runner Kareem Hunt had one of the best debuts in recent memory and added 148 yards on the ground and another 98 in the air by catching 5-of-5 passes. Don’t forget that.

We've heard the case for the Pats this week. They “rarely lose two games in a row” and “Tom Brady can't be as bad as he was in Week 1” are among the talking points. Even after a brutal loss, the Patriots still get the benefit of the doubt. It should actually be two brutal losses in succession. Five rings and a “genius” coach will buy some big time slack in this market, which provides us with this great opportunity. Asking any team in the NFL to cover a touchdown or more on the road is a tall task especially for a defense that looked as bad as New England's did in Week 1. Maybe the Pats bounce like they’ve been doing for such a long time but even Hall of Fame QB’s reach the end of the line and frankly speaking, other than their history, there is nothing to like about the Patriots spotting a significant margin on the road this week.

ATLANTA -3 over Green Bay

How many of you had the Falcons in your survivor Pool in Week 1? As a -6½ point road favorite in Chicago, Matt Ryan and company had their hands full with the Bears. The Falcons were actually in a position to lose that game, as the Bears drove into the red zone on the final drive with a shot at an unlikely win. To the relief of Survivor poolies that had Atlanta, the Falcons held on but to the frustration of everyone else that needed Chicago to win straight up in order to knock off everyone that had Atlanta, it was disappointing. Still, all eyes were on that final drive, as it was truly the only game last Sunday that came down to the final drive. Atlanta struggling against the Bears has resonated in this market while the Packers easily knocked off a perceived heavyweight. That resonates too.

While the Packers win last week was nice, it was in Green Bay versus one of the worst offensive lines in the game. Green Bay’s defense was not exposed the way it likely will be this week. Furthermore, did you happen to see what Matt Ryan did to the Packers last year? Matt Ryan combined for 680 yards and seven touchdowns in two wins over the Packers last season, including a blowout victory in the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons won’t have OC Kyle Shanahan calling the shots but so what. What they will have is the same players, same playbook and great confidence knowing they took this visitor to school. The media is selling that the Packs’ defense is better but we’re not buying it until we see it. This week will be a much bigger challenge for Green Bay and it is one that was too big on two occasions last year.

Green Bay’s offense figures to score, which is no shock given veteran quarterbacking and its pedigree. The Packers defense, though, has been the surprise toast of the town because of what they did to Seattle last week. That’s the overreaction here. However, we’re always preaching that context tells a different story than the impressive raw numbers. The Packers' defensive resume is built on one game against the weak offensive line that the Seahawks brought with them and shutting down some other sad-sack offenses last year. Atlanta blew the Super Bowl, they nearly lost to Chicago in Week 1 and now the media and market is suggesting the hangover or demise will continue. We see it as the Falcons being sold short because this might be one of the three best teams’ in the league that is spotting a lousy FG at home against a beatable squad.

Note: This game goes Sunday night so there figures to be a plethora of action between 7 PM and game time on Sunday night. We’re anticipating some Packer money and we may even get in on this one at under -3 so we’re going to wait until late Sunday to pull the trigger here. For now, no bets but that will change on Sunday, at which point we;ll update thois play and tweet it out also.

Week 2 Preview:

We preview the rest of Week 2 with recommendations on games we're not officially wagering on. Some of the games listed here may be moved into our slate by Sunday and if so, we'll post it well ahead of opening kick-off.

Buffalo +7 over Carolina

Cam Newton can take over games with his arm and legs but he struggled against the 49ers. Newton only completed 14-of-25 passes for 171 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. His accuracy was off against the 49ers and Newton wasn't able to do much on the ground. He finished Sunday's game with three yards on six rushing attempts. The Bills' run defense will need to be just as impressive in Week 2 to slow down the Panthers, as Jonathan Stewart and rookie Christian McCaffrey give Carolina two quality options out of the backfield. The duo combined to run for 112 yards on 31 carries against the 49ers. Both backs can also be dangerous in the receiving game. They added seven receptions for 55 yards and one touchdown on Sunday. We cannot put much emphasis on Carolina’s victory simply because they’re coming off a game against such an underwhelming opponent. We can’t put too much emphasis on a pedestrian game for Newton either because the Panthers won easily while some QB’s need a game to shake off the rust. He could certainly have a monster game at home against Buffalo.

At the same time, the Bills are coming off a not so easy victory against an underwhelming opponent and they, too, might be underwhelming also. That said, the score was misleading in that the Bills outgained the Jets, 408-214. That’s significant and so is the time of possession numbers that heavily favored the Bills. One victory is such a good way to start for a young team that is trying to get established and with seven points to work with, our lean, although slight, is on the Bills. Play: Buffalo +7 (no bets).

PITTSBURGH -5½ over Minnesota

The Steelers barely won in Cleveland last week, let alone cover but it's hard to put much stock in what sounded like a glorified preseason game if you talk to the Pittsburgh defense. Sure, Pittsburgh had seven sacks and an interception but cornerback Mike Hilton was far more excited about facing the Vikings this week. Said Hilton, “No disrespect to Cleveland, but they’re (the Vikes) more explosive. They have a lot more weapons.” You know when somebody starts a sentence with “No disrespect” someone is about to be disrespected. The Steelers have a history of playing down to their competition, especially on the road, but they’re a much different team at home in Heinz Field. The Steelers got practically nothing from Le'Veon Bell and even if the Vikings focus on the star runner like the Brownies did, Big Ben can still beat you with his vast passing arsenal.

When targeting overreactions, a big winner on Monday Night Football is usually a good place to start. The Vikings looked dominant in a 29-19 victory over the Saints with that double digit beat down actually flattering New Orleans. Vikes' quarterback Sam Bradford was named NFC player of the week after putting up 346 yards through the air and posting a QB rating of 143.0. He was good for 2nd in both stat categories after Week 1 but to say Bradford played above his usual standard would be an understatement. The Saints have had one of the worst defenses in the league for years and it didn't look like much changed on Monday night. The value of a team that performs well in a high profile prime time game is often inflated going into the next week and that's what we have here with the Vikings. In summarizing, the Vikes were very impressive last week in the eyes of the market in a prime-time game while the Steelers were not impressive at all and this short price is a reaction to both those results combined. We’re anticipating some Vikes money here so if you like Pittsburgh wait until Sunday and if you like Minnesota, bet it now. We’ll sit it out, as other games this week are preferred. Play: Pittsburgh -5½ (No bets).

Cleveland +8½ over BALTIMORE

We don't buy the narrative that Baltimore scored a "decisive" victory over the Bengals, as ESPN put it on Sunday night. The Bengals were absolutely putrid and there is no other way to put it. The Ravens only managed two touchdowns and had a lousy 111 yards in the air. Cincinnati had more passing yards and turned the ball over five times. Joe Flacco had almost as many completions as the Bengals had turnovers.

The Ravens were not sharp, despite the final score but this market reacts to the final score more than anything else. This weak or unprepared Bengals’ team lost the showdown against Baltimore more because of intangibles than on-field potency but Baltimore will be the big winner in this week's rankings. Style points in matchups with league bottom-feeders still count in this market but it was the Brownies who gave the Steelers more than they bargained for. Had it not been for the worst challenge of a call in NFL history, we still might be talking about the biggest upset of the week. Cleveland lost by just three, they look greatly improved but all this market sees is another Cleveland lost among many others. Baltimore’s offense is not good enough to be priced in this range against a much improved Cleveland team with a more positive approach. This game was going to make our slate but after Cinci looked so horrible on Thursday against Houston, Baltimore’s victory over Cinci suddenly looked much less impressive and the market reacted. This number came down overnight after the Thursday night contest and we expect it to drop some more, therefore, we’re going to sit this one. Play: Cleveland +8½ -(No bets).

Chicago +7 over TAMPA BAY

For the last couple of seasons the Buccaneers have been a sexy sleeper in the NFC South but preseason expectations haven't been this high in the Bay Area for some time. However, football became an afterthought last weekend in the state of Florida as it braced for the impact of Hurricane Irma. The Bucs game with the Dolphins was postponed until Week 11 so Tampa Bay will play its first game here in Week 2. By the time Irma hit the Bay, she had fizzed to a category one storm so this game will be played in Tampa at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs have done their best to surround quarterback Jameis Winston with more offensive weapons including speedy wide receiver DeSean Jackson. It’s a signing that’s been met with plenty of fan excitement for a franchise that doesn’t usually make a splash in the free agent market but it’s an addition that has way more sizzle than steak. After nearly a decade in the league, DJax’s best days are behind him. Expectations are also through the roof for rookie tight end O.J. Howard, who the Bucs took in the first round. He’s being compared to some of the league’s best pass catching tight ends. While Howard was a popular fantasy sleeper, it would be wise to proceed with caution, as the last rookie tight end to top the 1000 yard mark was Mike Ditka in 1961. Heading into Week 2, the suspension of running back Doug Martin looms large. More than their uncertainty in the backfield, the Bucs' biggest weakness might be on the offensive line where they've decided to rearrange the players they already have including Ali Marpet moving to center. Only time will tell if those moves are the right ones, but it’s unlikely this mediocre unit will get better just by shuffling deck chairs. We’re not interested in backing a team with this much hype surrounded by so many questions.

It was hard not to like what the Bears did in a 23-17 home loss to the NFC Champion Falcons. Chicago had the ball with time on the clock with a shot to win the game with a converted touchdown but literally came up just a fraction short. Runner Tarik Cohen was the surprise fantasy play of the day, as he was heavily involved in the Bears passing game by leading the team with eight receptions for 47 yards and adding another 66 yards on the ground in a time share with Jordan Howard. Although it's just one game, the Bears can boast a top-10 DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) offense. Quarterback Mike Glennon, who last played for the Buccaneers before signing with the Bears in the offseason, tried to dismiss that this was a “revenge” game for him but added that “it's just human nature to be looking forward to this a little bit more.” The Bears were getting +6½ points last weekend at home to the Falcons and went toe to toe with Atlanta in that game. This line opened up with Chicago getting +5½ points but that number has now been bet up to +7. That’s our prompt to lean Chicago. Tampa may indeed live up to expectations but the more likely scenario is that they disappoint or come up short as a significant favorite. Tampa is better in the underdog role but they’re not established enough to be priced in this range. When expected to win, they rarely do. Play: Tampa Bay +7 (no bets).

Washington +124 over L.A. RAMS

It’s human nature to overreact on Monday to what transpired in the NFL over the weekend. Like most of you, we’ve heard the same things, “The Saints are no good”, Chiefs are amazing, Giants suck, Texans’ no good and the list goes on. Last week, Jared Goff lit it up. We know he has talent, after all, he was a #1 overall pick. He’s even been compared to guys like Matt Ryan and when he has time to throw, he throws a beautiful ball. The Rams have upgraded at left tackle, center and wide receiver. Goff has nice targets now. Hell, Tavon Austin, the Rams #1 receiver last year can’t even get on the field. The Rams have massively upgraded at WR, TE and coaching staff. Look, every marriage is great on the honeymoon. Cocktails every night, no kids, aqua water and making out but it’s not reality. The Rams win against the Colts was a honeymoon. It was 80 degrees, there was no wind, no pass rush and they were facing the worst defensive roster (and probably worst team) in the NFL. The Rams led that game before the opening kickoff but again, it’s not reality. Reality is playing the Seahawks in Seattle in mid-December when it’s raining sideways and the Seahawks have seven in the box.

We’re not comparing the Redskins to the Seahawks but Washington has an offense that can trade punches. Furthermore, we still have no idea how good or bad the Rams defense is. While this game won’t make our slate of best bets, we know for sure that this number is an overreaction to what the Rams did last week. Washington’s was sloppy last week in a home loss to the Eagles but they had many chances to win that game and will now take a step down in class. Play: Washington +124 (No bets).

OAKLAND -13 over N.Y. Jets

The Jets lost a seemingly competitive game against the Bills last week but competitive it was not. Buffalo outgained, out-possessioned and out-classed the Jets in every way. Buffalo racked up well over 400 yards on the Jets defense and Derek Carr can do the same at half speed. The big problem with New York is that their offense can’t move five yards, thus the defense ends up playing far too many minutes every quarter. Those minutes pile up week by week too. The 21-12 final score made the Jets loss look respectable but it was not. Pretty much everything that was expected happened in Week 1. Turnovers, failed rushing attempts and not one receiver worthy of even a mention here and we haven’t even got to QB Josh McCown yet. Josh McCown was pitiful with just 187 yards passing and two interceptions. The Jets managed a measly 11 first downs.

The Raiders have high expectations as Super Bowl contenders and got off on the right foot with a 26-16 win at Tennessee. David Carr picked right up where he left off last season with 262 passing yards and two touchdowns. Oakland was impressive last week. They went into a hostile environment and played a strong game against what is supposed to be a much-improved Titans team. The Raiders grabbed an early lead and pretty much went gate to wire in the win. The Raiders had a good response every time the Titans did and that’s the sign of a maturing team ready to take that next step. This one is very tempting but spotting two TD’s in an NFL game is not so we’ll have to remain disciplined and pass. Play: Oakland -13 (no bets).

SEATTLE -14 over San Francisco

Seattle got a tough draw with a trip to Lambeau in Week 1, losing 17-9 to the Packers. It was a physical game that saw the 'Hawks on the wrong side of a number of calls but such is life playing in Wisconsin. A big interception that looked to be returned for a touchdown was called back after a ticky-tack foul was called on a block in the back against Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. In the ensuing madness, cornerback Jeremy Lane was tossed for a throwing a punch. That “in-game variance” set the tone for the rest of the afternoon and cost the Seahawks big time. Seattle's defense did its best not to break in Week 1, but spent nearly 40 minutes on the field in that game. By the 4th quarter, that unit was totally spent. The Seahawks offense will add injured running back Thomas Rawls back into their lineup this week and he'll be a welcomed addition for an offense that couldn't get out of the gate last Sunday.

Not even a new front office, new head coach and a bunch of new players could keep the 49ers from looking like, well, the 49ers. Since the unceremonious firing of Jim Harbaugh in 2014, this franchise has been in total disarray. While rookie general manager Jon Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have a long leash, it looks like there will be no easy fixes after a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers. Carolina didn't even play a great game and still won by three touchdowns. The 49ers had just 166 yards through the air with quarterback Brian Hoyer taking four sacks for a loss of 27 yards. It looked like San Fran was going to be shutout but a 23-yard field goal from Robbie Gould in the dying seconds of the third quarter saved them that embarrassment.

These two teams played in Seattle at the end of last season with the 49ers as an 11½ point pooch. The 'Niners covered in a 25-23 loss but a lot has changed for both teams since then.'Frisco actually had a 14-3 lead at one point in that game but the man that was getting it done behind center, Colin Kaepernick is long gone. Kaeper might be a polarizing figure but he was pretty good at the end of last season after taking over for Blaine Gabbert. The 49ers have made their bed when it comes to their quarterbacks this season and they now must lie in it, as uncomfortable as that may be. Play: Seattle -14 (no bets)

Survivor Picks - Week 2

Our Survivor picks this year will be twofold. We’ll recommend two choices every week, a safe one and a not so safe one. The problem with playing the popular pick or the biggest point-spread favorite is that when that team loses, you go down with a high percentage of the pool and if they keep on winning all year, the pool will be split several ways. A mix of both and avoiding potential upsets is not a bad strategy either. One of our cardinal rules is to never play road teams because big road favs get beat too often and when one inevitably goes down, it will knock out a good percentage of participants and you don’t want to be one of them.

Week 1 safe pick – Buffalo √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Minnesota √

Week 2 safe pick – Oakland over N.Y. Jets

There is plenty to choose from this week, as Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore, Carolina and Tampa Bay figure to get some play. While the Seahawks look like a virtual lock to win outright, we’re going with the Raiders because the Jets simply cannot trade punches with this team on their best day. Furthermore, Oakland’s schedule gets real tough after this week so this becomes their easiest scheduled game of the season.

As for our “gamble play” of the week, there are simply too many good options to gamble this week on short priced teams to win outright so there is not any reason to gamble. This week, take Seattle or Oakland and move on to Week 3. Carolina, Tampa Bay and to a lesser degree, Baltimore are not locks from our vantage point.

Week 2 Survivor picks are Oakland and Oakland.

Dave Essler

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Play: Jacksonville +2

Some books have +2 without buying, and I'd have loved +3. which Bovada still has. Although I'm not a Jaguars fan I do live in the general area. I wasn't sold on them until I watched them beat the Patriots in New England in an exhibition game, and then watch the way they played in Houston. They're quite confident and Fournette is indeed the real deal. When teams stack the box to try and stop him, they've made Borltes look much better than he really is. The Jags defense is actually well above average - Myles Jack is playing well, they brought in Calais Campbell from Arizona, and added three new faces (Bouye, Barry Church, and Tashaun Gipson) in the defensive backfield. They're at home, where fans are generally apathetic by October - but there's an actual buzz that'll fire them up for their first home game, which I suspect they win. I know Tennessee is up and coming, but a division road favorite is yet another thing and IMO it's strictly public perception versus what I see as reality.

Spartan

Eagles vs. Chiefs
Play: Eagles +6

I week one I had the Chiefs against the Patriots and it cashed easily. My triple star on sunday was the Eagles against the Redskins. Well, going to fade one of these teams here and I am going to take Doug Pederson's Eagles and the, my my view, generous points. That was a huge win for the Chiefs in Foxboro and everyone around Chiefs nation has been jerking off over them for some time now. Was also a costly win as safety Eric Berry has been lost for the season. God I hated to see that, Berry battled back from his cancer challenges and now this. A lot of people were very suspect of the Chiefs running game but I had a feeling it was just a matter of becoming familiar with Kareem Hunt. The kid is no flash in the pan, he is the real deal. Charles will not be missed on the field at Arrowhead. With that being said I still say this Eagles team is better than most suspect. The chink in the armor I saw sunday at Washington that stood out to me was the weak run blocking. They need to step that up. But, in my view these two teams are closer in talent than most suspect. The Eagles are capable of generating some decent pass rush and as always that will be a key to slowing down Alex Smith. It's big that Cox and Graham put some heat on Smith. I think Wentz and Torrey Smith can make some big plays happen against this Chiefs secondary without Berry on the back end. Chiefs, as usual, have the edge on special teams but overall I see this as a close, hard fought battle. I say take the Eagles and the points, presently readily available at plus the six.

Dr Bob

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Lean – Tennessee (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville looked impressive in week 1 winning at Houston 29-7, good for a +22 point margin. However, my adjusted EPA (adjEPA) metric only gives the Jaguars credit for an 11 point win – mostly due to the Texans losing 3 fumbles (one returned for a touchdown).

Much will be made of Leonard Fournette’s 100-yard rushing debut against a stingy Houston rush defense but the Jags actually performed much worse on the ground this game than they did last season with -0.10 adjEPA/rush compared to -0.02 adjEPA/rush in 2016 – which equates to about 2 points per game. I don’t expect Fournette to have a much better time in week 2 as the Titans rush defense was nearly as good as the Texans’ run defense last season.

Despite a 10 point loss in week 1, Tennessee actually slightly outplayed Oakland in adjEPA with an expected point margin of +0.7 points. The Titans and Raiders gained 5.6 and 5.7 yppl respectively – the difference was in the Redzone and Special Teams. The Raiders scored touchdowns on two of their three trips to the Redzone while the Titans only scored one touchdown on their three trips. Also, new Oakland kicker Giorgio Tavecchio made all 4 of his FG attempts including one from 52 yards, while Tennessee kicker Ryan Succop missed one of his two 50+ yard attempts.

Jacksonville was impressive last week in their upset win but the Jags may be due for a fall. Teams that won their opening game by more than 10 points and covered the spread by more than 15 points as an underdog are just 6-29 ATS in week 2 if their opponent did not cover the spread in week 1. Tennessee also applies to a more general 70-27 ATS contrary situation. My ratings favor Tennessee by 2 points, so there isn’t much line value here but the situation certainly favors the Titans.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Lean – Under (39) – BALTIMORE (-8 ) vs Cleveland

The Ravens defense recorded the only shutout of week 1 but their defensive adjEPA actually ranked 5th as they were lucky to turn Cincinnati over 3 times in the Redzone. Baltimore’s offense performed as expected scoring 20 points, which was right around their team total going into the game.

Cleveland impressed many by keeping it to a 3-point game against Pittsburgh. Although, they certainly benefited from 144 penalty yards by the Steelers.

Our model favors Baltimore by 8.8 points, so the line is about right and we have no opinion on the side. However, we do lean with the Under based on a 117-62-8 week 2 Under angle.

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were one of only three teams in week one to outscore their opponents by 20 points or more. However, their scoring margin was slightly inflated by their success on 3rd-4th down plays. Carolina converted 7 of 13 3rd-4th downs while holding San Francisco to 3 for 15 and there is a lot of positive variance in those numbers.

The Bills beat the lowly Jets by relying on their running game as they did last season. Buffalo had the highest adjEPA/rush last season and went on to gain 190 yards on the ground against New York (most of any team in week 1). It won’t be as easy for Buffalo this week, however, as the Panthers finished 6th in adjEPA/rush last season and followed that up with a great performance in week 1. Carolina gained 11.11 points from their rush defense (ranking 2nd in week 1) last week and Tyrod Taylor will have to play well with a less talented receiving corps than he had at his disposal a year ago.

Carolina still has one of the more wide-ranging projections in the league, since there is still an unanswered question as to how good (or bad) the Panthers’ offense is. A lot depends on how effectively they use talented rookie Christian McCaffrey, who is a great pass catcher as well as a great runner. Cam Newton has not been very good at throwing to his running backs in the past and we’ll have to see if that has changed. If not, then Carolina’s attack will probably underperform this season. But, we think the line is pretty fair in this game.

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

Lean – New England (-6.5) vs NEW ORLEANS

The Patriots defense had -25 adjEPA against the Chiefs, the worst performance of any defense in week 1. New England’s thinnest positional group is linebacker and they might not have Dont’a Hightower this week – that could prove to be a problem against Drew Brees.

The Saints offense was actually much better than their point total of 19 would indicate as they turned in the 10th best week 1 offensive performance in adjEPA against a tough Vikings defense. New Orleans was unlucky to only come away with one touchdown on five trips to the Redzone and the final score of that game was certainly misleading.

However, the Saints defense remains a problem and their adjEPA of -21 ranked 2nd worst, only ahead of the Patriots. Concerns about these two defenses are reflected in this game’s total of 55.5, the highest of the season thus far.

I think the line on this game is about right, as our model has New England by 6 points, but the Patriots tend to outplay their statistical projections with Tom Brady at quarterback. The Patriots are an amazing 127-67-7 ATS in games that Tom Brady starts as long as they are not favored by 9 points or more, The fact that they looked so bad last week is even more reason to be on the Pats’ side this week, as New England is 34-11 ATS the week following a loss, including 30-6 ATS with Brady starting and not laying 9 points or more. I’ll lean with New England based on those strong team trends.

Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts

The Cardinals lost to the Lions by 12 on the road in week 1 but played better than the score line indicates. Arizona only scored a touchdown on 2 of 4 of their Redzone trips while allowing Detroit to score a touchdown on all three Redzone opportunities. The Cardinals also had four turnovers and one was returned for a Lion’s touchdown. The game should’ve been closer to even rather than a double-digit loss.

Arizona lost star running back David Johnson to a wrist injury that will cause him to miss 2-3 months. Johnson doesn’t make much of an impact in the running game – he averaged 0.01 adjEPA/rush while his teammates have averaged 0.04 adjEPA/rush last season. However, the loss of Johnson will likely affect the Cardinals passing game. Last season, Arizona led the NFL with 40.7 expected points added when targeting running backs. Johnson averaged 0.33 EPA/target while the other Cardinals running backs only averaged 0.06 EPA/target.

Carson Palmer finished top 5 in EPA/pass play (min 200 attempts) in 2014 & 2015 before finishing 21st last season. It was unclear in the preseason whether his dropoff was due to age or randomness. Optimists pointed to his 4th ranking air yards last season as a sign he hasn’t lost arm strength but he made several cringe worthy throws in week 1 against a bad Lions pass defense. It’s worth noting Palmer’s 2016 season was right on par with the rest of his career outside of 2014-2015 and now he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve. Without David Johnson as a trusty check-down option, Palmer could be in trouble moving forward.

The Colts played poorly against the Rams in week 1 but not as bad as their -37 point differential indicates. Indianapolis was hurt by three turnovers – two of which were returned for Rams touchdowns.

Jacoby Brissett’s play was promising when he took over for Scott Tolzien in the 4th quarter even though he was working with a limited playbook after just being acquired the previous week. He led the Colts’ only touchdown drive and is expected to be the week 2 starter. Brissett had an average EPA per pass play of +0.07 in 55 dropbacks filling in for Tom Brady at the beginning of last season in New England and, while I don’t expect that level of efficiency with a less talented supporting cast and less innovative coaching staff, he should put up decent numbers with another week to prepare – and is a better option than Tolzien. I’ll stay away from this game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is coming off a big Thursday night performance in New England where they beat the defending champions 42-27. My adjEPA had the Chiefs performance at +30, so they performed even better than their point differential would indicate. Kansas City relied on a balanced offensive attack in week 1 ranking 2nd in both adjEPA/rush & adjEPA/pass.

Philadelphia opened the season with a 13-point road win in Washington. However, the game was closer than that according to adjEPA as the Eagles should’ve only won by 7 – mostly due to Washington only scoring 3 points in their two trips to the Redzone and losing 3 fumbles (one returned for a touchdown).

This game would be KC -3.5 using preseason implied wins and we have the fair line at -5 after the Chiefs big win over the Patriots. Andy Reid is famous for his team’s performance coming off a bye but that success hasn’t translated to games following mini-byes (10 days rest) – Reid is just 4-5 ATS in his career following a Thursday night game. No real value to be found in this game, so we’ll pass.

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota’s offense ranked 2nd in week 1 adjEPA and Sam Bradford led the league with 0.75 EPA/pass play. If Bradford is able to throw the ball deep like he did in week 1 moving forward the Vikings offense could be dangerous but the Steelers secondary is a much tougher challenge than what the Saints provided.

The Steelers opened the season barely holding off the Browns, while the Vikings looked impressive on Monday night. Preseason implied wins would’ve made this game PIT -8, but after the Vikings offensive explosion the line is below 7 points. We have the fair line at 6½ points so there is a bit of value on the Steelers and we’d lean with Pittsburgh at -5 points or less.

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lean – Chicago (+7) over TAMPA BAY

We won our best bet on Chicago +7 last week as they almost won outright with Jordan Howard dropping a potential game-winning pass on the goal line with less than a minute remaining. Howard and Tarik Cohen lead the league’s best rushing attack in week 1 with 0.41 adjEPA/rush – almost doubling the second place team, Kansas City.

The Bears defense also looked good even without top cornerback Prince Amukamara and would’ve held last year’s highest scoring offense to 16 points if it weren’t for an 88-yard busted play on 3rd down to Atlanta tight end Austin Hooper.

The Buccaneers didn’t play in week 1 due to Hurricane Irma so they’ve had more time to prepare, as they were able to move on to this game as soon as last week’s game was cancelled.

We played Chicago over 5.5 wins as our only NFL season win total and last week’s performance validates our thinking that the Bears have entered this season underrated. The line would be 9 points based on the implied wins model, which is based on Vegas season win totals, so there isn’t as much value now as there would have been before Chicago’s good performance last week. However, we still lean with Chicago at +7 points or more.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers rallied late in week 1 – almost tying the game with a field goal attempt in the final seconds. However, the Chargers adjEPA performance of -10 was 7 points worse than their point differential. Los Angeles was lucky to score touchdowns on both their trips to the Redzone and benefitted from two Denver turnovers and a Broncos’ missed field goal in the 4th quarter.

The Dolphins didn’t play in week 1 due to Hurricane Irma so they’ve had some extra time to prepare. Using preseason implied wins would make this game LAC -4.5 and we don’t see any value either.

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland took care of business in week 1 beating the Titans on the road. However, the Raiders were only 0.1 better in yards per play, so that game was much more competitive than the 26-16 final score would indicate. Oakland won largely because they were able to convert in the Redzone with 17 points in their three opportunities. Also, Oakland’s backup kicker Giorgio Tavecchio made all 4 of his FG attempts, including two from 52 yards out.

The Jets fulfilled their low expectations with an ugly loss to Buffalo in week 1 but it’s rare to see a point spread this large early in the season. There’s only been sixteen Week 2 games with a spread of 13 points or higher in the previous 37 years with the favorites going 10-5-1 ATS. We see the fair line as Oakland by 15 points but we have no opinion on this game.

Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams

Lean – Washington (+2.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Washington opened the season with a 13-point home loss to Philadelphia. However, the game was closer than that according to my adjEPA metric, as the Redskins should’ve only lost by roughly a touchdown – due to Washington only scoring 3 points in their two trips to the Redzone and losing 3 fumbles (one returned for a touchdown).

Success on 3rd & 4th down is obviously very important to the final score because failure on those plays leads to a change in possession. Regardless how a team performs overall compared to their opponent, the fate of a game is often decided by 3rd & 4th down plays – which inherently have more variance game-to-game because there are fewer of them. The Redskins only converted 3 of 12 3rd-4th down plays and allowed the Eagles to convert 8 of 14, which is certainly outside the range of what would be expected from those two teams. Meanwhile, the Rams converted 5 of 14 3rd-4th downs and held the Colts to 0 for 11 on those key downs. Over time, the 3rd-4th down performance of a team will mirror a team’s overall performance and I certainly expect Washington to perform better on those key downs, and Los Angeles to perform worse moving forward.

The Rams had the highest point differential of the week outscoring the Colts by 37 points (our adjEPA grades the differential to be 17 points and quarterback Jared Goff performed much better with a new head coach in a new offensive scheme, recording 0.57 EPA/pass play – the highest mark by any QB in week 1. However, Goff’s -0.33 EPA/pass play last season was the worst by any QB with more than 200 attempts by a huge margin – almost 5x worse than the next closest (Osweiler with a -0.07). The Rams and Goff did play well, but the jury is still out on Goff and it’s still not likely that he’ll be a better than average quarterback this season – although he’ll certainly be better than last season.

Cantor Gaming opened this line as Redskins -2 when the schedule came out and implied wins (ratings using the season win totals) makes this game Redskins by 0.8 points. While the Rams’ offense has improved, it’s likely not enough to justify this line movement and this likes like an overreaction to last week’s results. I’ve been hoping that this game goes to 3. If so, then we have a play. I’d take Washington in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more at -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion at +3 at -120).

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Lean – San Francisco (+14) over SEATTLE

Kyle Shanahan did not enjoy the same kind of offensive success in week 1 with his new team as he did with Atlanta last season, scoring only 3 points. The 49ers attack had the worst performance of the week with -0.21 adjEPA/play and it certainly won’t get any easier playing in Seattle.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense couldn’t manage a touchdown either. Russell Wilson was lucky to only be sacked 3 times and Seattle’s offensive line will need to improve going forward. The Seahawks lost the game on 3rd downs only converting 3 of 12 and allowed the Packers to convert 9 of 16.

We see the fair line on this game as Seattle by 14.5 points but the Niners apply to a very good 145-60-2 ATS situation and part of that angle has to do with Seattle also coming off a loss. I’ll lean with San Francisco at +14 points or more based on that situation.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Lean – Green Bay (+3) over ATLANTA

A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship will be Atlanta’s first game in their new home. Since 2000, home teams are 11-5 ATS in their first game with a new stadium.

This game will be decided by two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Matt Ryan picked up right where he left off posting a 0.48 EPA/pass play in week 1, even higher than his 0.33 EPA/pass play in last year’s MVP season. However, a lot of that was due to one 88-yard busted play to the tight end on 3rd down and the Falcons still barely got past the Bears, who had 1st down and goal at the 5-yard line in the final minute. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers had a respectable 0.08 EPA/pass play against Seattle’s tough pass defense and overall the Packers are obviously one of the favorites in the NFC – particularly if their defense plays as well as it did last week against the Seahawks. We favor Atlanta by only 2 points and I’d lean with Green Bay at +3 at -115 odds or better.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Lean – NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Detroit

The Giants offense could only manage 3 points last week and many will be blaming the absence of top receiver Odell Beckham. However, since the start of Beckham’s career, New York’s offensive adjEPA has been about the same in the 5 other games he has missed compared to when he’s played. The Giants have a 0.15 offensive adjEPA when he does not start and a 0.14 offensive adjEPA when does. Contrary to fantasy football, most top wide receivers mean very little to the point spread. In truth, the Giants offense was just outplayed by Dallas but they should look better against a much easier opponent this week – the Lions defense ranked 26th last season in adjEPA/play.

Detroit had another 4th quarter comeback after setting the NFL record last season, but their 12 point win flatters them as adjEPA only expected them to win by 3. The Lions benefitted from four Cardinals’ turnovers and had some luck scoring touchdowns on all 3 of their Redzone trips.

Our model favors the Giants by 4 ½ points if Beckham doesn’t play and by 5 ½ points if he does play, so I’ll lean with the Giants either way.

Power Sports

Arizona vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis +8.5

Based on their horrific 46-9 Week 1 loss, few (if anybody!) will want to see the Colts in this space. They made the Rams look like a bonafide playoff contender and HC Chuck Pagano doesn't seem long for this job given he though he lost to the 49ers (look it up!). Without Andrew Luck under center, this is one of the worst rosters in the league. But from a strictly power rankings perspective, there is a ton of value here in fading an Arizona team playing on the road for 2nd straight week (both early starts!) and now w/o star RB David Johnson.

The Cardinals also didn't have a very fun Week 1. They blew a lead in Detroit and lost 35-23. Four turnovers didn't help, but the big story was the loss of Johnson for the next several months. That makes a team I had rated as a fringe playoff contender coming into the year now nothing more than sub-.500 fare. QB Carson Palmer is old and nearing the end of the line. The entire offense was built around Johnson, so expect them to struggle to score points. The defense is young. Will Arizona still win here? Possibly. But not by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for.

Maybe it will be Scott Tolzien, maybe it will be Jacoby Brissett. But whomever starts at QB for the Colts here can't be worse than Tolzien was last week, even Tolzein himself. This figures to be a low-scoring affair, so naturally the underdog is the way to go. Home dogs off a Week 1 SU loss have gone 30-14 ATS since '05. Hold your nose and go w/ the Colts Sunday.

The Prop Specialists

Buffalo 1st Half

Our 1H sides model shows BUF +2 as the fair first half line, a big difference with BUF +4 available in the market.

We just can't pull the trigger here on a paid play as we always have accompanying signals coming from ATS probablistic classifiers: they don't generate fair lines like the base model, but generate probabilities of 1H ATS cover. Unless all the ducks align between all the models, there is no higher value play.

Unfortunately BUF +4 doesn't meet our stringent requirements because our ATS models give out no signal to accompany the fair line base rating. But given the large difference between our 1H fair line model and the market, BUF +4 for 3* is a play.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Bears (0-1) at Buccaneers (0-0)

There is great anticipation before each team’s opening game. When that season debut is suddenly denied, even if Mother Nature is responsible, it affects the psyche of the entire club. We may have seen that with the Texans last week in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. The Bucs might be an ascending club but all they’ve had in preparation for this campaign are exhibition games with vanilla game-planning, soft hits and makeshift lineups. Taking the field in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma and taking down a Chicago team by more than a converted touchdown after the Bears nearly toppled the heavily favoured Falcons, becomes a demanding task. The Bears are establishing a feisty defence and appear to have some emerging stars on offence. Chicago QB Mike Glennon also knows this opponent quite well after being groomed in Tampa’s system. Buccaneers have also been money guzzlers as home chalk with just one cover in past six when favoured here. TAKING: BEARS +7

Titans (0-1) at Jaguars (1-0)

With an upgraded roster, perhaps the Jaguars are only a quarterback away from becoming a contender. Trouble is, they are currently stuck with Blake Bortles and that’s a liability. However, by winning handily in Houston there is this false belief that the team can still succeed with its inadequate QB at the helm. Good luck with that. Bortles has thrown 51 interceptions compared to 47 touchdowns in his less than illustrious career. In that 29-7 win last week, his biggest contribution was not turning the ball over after completing just 11 of 21 passes for a measly 125 yards. As if the passing game needed further woes, Jacksonville’s best and leading receiver from a year ago was lost for the season when Allen Robinson tore his ACL in last week’s victory. The Titans are a more complete team. Losing to Oakland last week is nothing to be ashamed of. Look for big bounce back from the more potent squad. TAKING: TITANS -2

Browns (0-1) at Ravens (1-0)

We should thank the Bengals for this bloated line. By shutting out Cincinnati on its own field, the Ravens are being afforded tremendous respect here. Unfortunately, the Bengals aren’t much of a team this year. It would not surprise us to see these Browns surpass them in the AFC North standings this season after Cleveland’s lengthy occupation of the basement. The Browns have some solid pieces in place, namely on the offensive line. Cleveland’s revolving door at quarterback has another rookie as its pivot but DeShone Kizer was game against a respected Pittsburgh defence last week and he won’t back down here. Kizer is surrounded by equal or better players on offence than counterpart Joe Flacco. As bad as Cleveland has been, only two of previous seven games between this pair has seen Baltimore win by more than six points. Ravens have also been bankroll busters when favoured, covering just five of past 22 games when spotting points. TAKING: BROWNS +8

THE REST

Bills (1-0) at Panthers (1-0)

Soft starting schedule for Cam Newton’s gang after road win in San Francisco last week before heading home to face a less than intimidating Buffalo bunch. Hard to gauge Bills after they defeated woeful Jets last week but Carolina must first prove itself worthy of spotting this hefty price, especially against a motivated opposing coach after Sean McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive co-ordinator before taking this gig. Panthers’ secondary remains a concern since losing Josh Norman while Cam’s passing ability leaves much to be desired. Newton was only able to generate 171 yards through the air last week while overthrowing several open targets. Panthers’ unreliable faves lately with three covers in previous 11 when giving points. TAKING: BILLS +7

Patriots (0-1) at Saints (0-1)

The obvious angle and the one that the betting public will buy into is that the Patriots are mad after being embarrassed in season opener vs. Kansas City. Wooooo, mad! If nothing else, that sentiment inflates this line which appears to be out of whack. Granted, the Saints have a porous defence. But did you see New England’s stop unit against the Chiefs? K.C. was in turbo, Patriots in park. It won’t help that the Pats’ top linebacker Dont’a Hightower may have to sit this one out. Sean Payton will love to do battle here and it should be a shootout between two top QB’s. Not often to we get home points with the Saints but when we do, best to take them as New Orleans 5-0 as home dog since 2015. TAKING: SAINTS +7

Arizona (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1)

Could use a couple of off ramps for this one. Give away a ton of road points with a discouraged Arizona team that spit the bit last week in Detroit while losing its star running back in the process or risk your hard earned cash on a Colts team that would be the worst in football if not for the Jets? While the Colts have some situational appeal (big home dog, Cards host Dallas on Monday night next week), we don’t see how Indy competes here. The x-factor could be if coach Chuck Pagano opts to roll out Jacoby Brissett to start at quarterback over the useless Scott Tolzien. But even so, Indianapolis’ defence is so weak that we’d rather take the better coach with stronger team in bit of a desperation spot. TAKING: CARDINALS –7½

Eagles (1-0) at Chiefs (1-0)

Few will want to fade the Chiefs here after impressive upset of Patriots in Foxboro to kick off the season. But taking nine points to New England is much different than having to give away a bunch to a dangerous Philadelphia squad. Andy Reid will get to face his former employers but he will do so without star safety Eric Berry, the one casualty from opening win. Berry will be missed as it should allow QB Carson Wentz to work rising TE Zach Ertz throughout the afternoon. Philly likely to have success pressuring QB Alex Smith when Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox penetrate the right side of Kansas City’s offensive line. Chiefs have covered only six of past 16 on this field. TAKING: EAGLES +5½

Vikings (1-0) at Steelers (1-0)

The importance of an offensive line can never be overstated. The lack of quality players on Minnesota’s O-Line last year contributed greatly to its offensive inefficiency. A concentrated effort to correct this issue was made this off-season and at first look, it seems the Vikings’ brass did a good job. While it was only a small sampling in season opener vs. Saints, QB Sam Bradford was provided with protection, allowing him to fling the ball around for 346 passing yards and three touchdowns. Couple that with a strong defence and the Vikes cannot be ignored. Of course, Pittsburgh is a stronger defensive foe than Saints but Steelers were not convincing out of gate in struggle with Browns. We’ll rely on what we saw last week and take the points. TAKING: VIKINGS +5½

Dolphins (0-0) at Chargers (0-1)

Has to be weird for the Dolphins. Not only did they have an unexpected ‘bye’ week to start the season (and haven’t played a game in 17 days), they have to fly all the way to the west coast to play at some unusual soccer stadium and they will do it with a new but old quarterback who was retired before unretiring after Miami starter Ryan Tannehill went down in early pre-season. Meanwhile, the Chargers fought back in tough loss to rugged division foe Broncos and that primer should have them ready for this one. The Fish have been slow starters recently with just one cover in past six September contests while also struggling versus conference opponents where Dolphins are a numbing 9 of 29 against the spread. TAKING: CHARGERS –4½

Jets (0-1) at Raiders (1-0)

Many astute handicappers will warn you to never lay double-digits in the NFL. Those people have never seen these Jets play. This could be one of the worst teams in league history. The only obstacle here will be if the Raiders are fully focused. Seeing that this is Oakland’s only home game in a month and that it’s the home opener, we feel that they’ll be alert. The Jets’ roster is void of NFL calibre players on both sides of the ball. The defence might be able to make some stops but the offence is simply useless. Oakland averaged 29 points per game as hosts last season, Raiders should have no trouble reaching that plateau here and that figures to be enough for a cover. TAKING: RAIDERS -13½

Redskins (0-1) at Rams (1-0)

While we have to be somewhat cautious about putting too much stock into the Rams victory over awful Colts last week, there is plenty to like on this Los Angeles team. The defence has been solid for a couple of year and now has Wade Philips fine tuning it even more. The useless Jeff Fisher is replaced by Sean McVay and while the latter is new at this job, he’s already instilled more confidence in his team than Fisher ever did. Even much maligned sophomore QB Jared Goff played with authority last week, completing 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards and no interceptions. The Redskins have issues with absent ground game, two 1,000-yard receivers departed from a year ago and current receivers on the limp. It’s early but Rams deserve this endorsement. TAKING: RAMS –3

Cowboys (1-0) at Broncos (1-0)

The Cowboys started off with tidy win over Giants and are now 14-3 in past 17 regular-season games. Even so, not sure if they should be road favourites in Denver this weekend. The Broncos had a moderate 9-7 season a year ago but they still have an elite defence and they worked diligently on fixing a soft offensive line. If Denver’s win over the Chargers on Monday was any indication, the O-Line is headed in the right direction as the running game was decent and QB Trevor Siemian was provided better protection than a year ago. Dallas was only able to muster up 19 points last week and now will face a stiff Denver secondary at difficult Mile High. Gotta take the points. TAKING: BRONCOS +2

49ers (0-1) at Seahawks (0-1)

Mismatch of course but needing to win by more than two touchdowns in divisional contest is a risky proposition in this NFL. Even though it is only the weak 49ers, Seattle clearly has lingering issues on its offensive line. The inability to run the ball with poor blocking and unproven backs is added deterrent in this price range. Seattle was only able to muster up nine points last week against a Green Bay team not exactly known for its defensive prowess. Don’t get us wrong, the Niners are a team on the rebuild that offers very little. However, they seem to be at their best when facing NFC West opponents, compiling a 6-2 ATS mark in past eight versus division mates.TAKING: 49ERS +14

Packers (1-0) at Falcons (1-0)

Atlanta had to be looking past Chicago last week in anticipation of this one. Not only is this a marquee Sunday night matchup, Super Bowl runner up Falcons will reveal their new stadium for all to see. Packers visited Atlanta twice last season and suffered a pair of losses including a 44-21 playoff pounding. Despite what many thought to be a subpar game last week against Chicago, reigning league MVP Matt Ryan still threw for 321 yards and touchdown in Week 1 victory. As hosts last season, the Falcons averaged 33 points per game including aforementioned 44 vs. Green Bay and 36 against Seahawks in playoffs. Aaron Rodgers always dangerous when receiving points but his guys just 1-17 when surrendering 26 or more points on the road. TAKING: FALCONS –3